The total revision was -79,000. This is the smallest benchmark revision since 2021.
The BLS reports the Preliminary Benchmark Revision for March of 2026 (from March 2025) is -79,000 total jobs.
- The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1 percent)
- The preliminary benchmark revision for total private employment was -178,000 (-0.1 percent).
- The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment.
- In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2027 with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release.
Benchmark Revisions
| March benchmark | Final revision | Final % | Preliminary revision | Prelim % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | −81,000 | −0.1% | −150,000 | −0.1% |
| 2017 | +135,000 | +0.1% | +95,000 | +0.1% |
| 2018 | −16,000 | ~0% | +43,000 | ~0% |
| 2019 | −489,000 | −0.3% | −501,000 | −0.3% |
| 2020 | −121,000 | −0.1% | −173,000 | −0.1% |
| 2021 | −7,000 | ~0% | −166,000 | −0.1% |
| 2022 | +506,000 | +0.3% | +462,000 | +0.3% |
| 2023 | −187,000 | −0.1% | −306,000 | −0.2% |
| 2024 | −598,000 | −0.4% | −818,000 | −0.5% |
| 2025 | −861,000 | −0.5% | −911,000 | −0.6% |
| 2026 | final due Feb 2027 | — | −79,000 | −0.1% |
Key Benchmark Synopsis
- 2022 was hugely positive due to a Covid rebound, a birth-death model that performs poorly at economic turns.
- Household and establishment collection rates fell after Covid. QCEW is UI tax records, so it does not have a survey response problem; CPS (household) and CES (payroll) surveys both do.
- 2024 and 2025 were hugely overcounted due to huge birth-death model errors on top of CES survey response rate issues.
- Huge immigration-related CPS population adjustments in 2022, 2023, and 2025 compounded cross-survey comparisons.
- 2026 still shows a CES overcount, mostly on the private side (178,000) compared to 79,000 total.
Large Annual Revisions Are Over
Looking ahead, I expect benchmark revisions will get smaller because job creation and turnover are both anemic.
The BLS has also modified their birth-death model.
For the 2027, I am eyeing something like 2017, 2018 or 2021, ± 0.1 percent.
Related Posts
July 2, 2026: 2026 Jobs Market: What’s Hot, What’s Not, and What’s Shaky?
There’s some interesting changes so far this year compared to 2025.
August 7, 2026: Another Weak Jobs Report, Payrolls Down 23,000 and Employment Down 87,000
On top of the weak headline numbers, revisions were negative 103,000.
June 2024 Mish asked: What Are the Margins of Error in the BLS Monthly Jobs Reports?Is that same question germane today or has that been addressed?
winning? President Donald Trump announced Friday that the U.S. has reached an agreement with Venezuela to take control of 65 billion barrels of the country’s oil reserves, calling it the biggest oil deal in world history.
by now you should know that Trump tweets are not (ahem) entirely factual, This tweet is to suppress oil markets and reassure low-info voters that oil prices will soon go down.
…Venezuelan officials are preparing to sign agreements next week granting new oil exploration and production rights to a number of companies, particularly US firms.
Sources previously told Reuters news agency that a lease model was under consideration, with fields potentially auctioned to US producers, but the arrangement could face legal and constitutional challenges in Venezuela, where the state retains control over core oil industry activities.
The new deal would represent a dramatic expansion of Washington’s role in Venezuela’s oil industry as the Trump administration seeks to revive the country’s production and secure more crude for US refineries. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but produces only 1.25 million barrels per day, far below its potential after years of underinvestment, mismanagement and sanctions.
Trump did not disclose the structure of the agreement, the fields or companies involved, nor how the US would exercise majority control over the reserves.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the agreement as a win for both countries, saying on X that it would secure stable, low-cost oil for the US and help lower petrol prices.
Any revival of VZ oil production to higher capacity will take a decade or more, meanwhile competing with “easier” oil and gas in Guiana and Surinam
jobs at the new Trump resort? Trump’s Quietly Working to Give Part of Yosemite to a Private Developer
The National Park Service is under pressure to make an unprecedented deal that cedes a quarter-mile strip of the park.
Good times are here to stay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJWLesCy8ZY
I assume taco will ask the courts to “adjust” these figures.
Nah, he’ll have the military bomb it just like the bond market! MAGA everyone!!
And put his name on the report?