There’s some interesting changes so far this year compared to 2025.
Cumulative Job Changes Through June 2026
- Nonfarm: 552,000
- Manufacturing: 18,000
- Leisure and Hospitality: -10,000
- Professional and Business Services: 135,000
- Private Education and Health Care: 346,000
- Nonfarm Excluding Private Education and Health Care: 206,000
Cumulative Job Changes 2025 Total
Cumulative Job Changes Through June 2025
- Nonfarm: 162,000
- Manufacturing: 18,000
- Leisure and Hospitality: -25,000
- Professional and Business Services: -113,000
- Private Education and Health Care: 380,000
- Nonfarm Excluding Private Education and Health Care: -218,000
Cumulative Job Changes 2025 Totals
- Nonfarm: 116,000
- Manufacturing: -113,000
- Leisure and Hospitality: 99,000
- Professional and Business Services: -160,000
- Private Education and Health Care: 682,000
- Nonfarm Excluding Private Education and Health Care: -566,000
2026 vs 2025
- Healthcare still hot
- Huge positive swing in Professional and Business Services (-160,000 full year 2025 to +135,000 through June 2026)
- Manufacturing stabilized
- The second-half 2025 rebound in Leisure and Hospitality died on the vine
This assumes you believe the numbers, but it’s what we have so far.
The demise of Professional and Business Services in 2025 was related to AI. Did companies get rid of too much staff?
Where we Stand in 2026
2025 was a one-cylinder jobs economy, Private Education and Health Care.
For 2026, add Professional and Business Services to the mix.
The June 2026 combination is 346,000 + 135,000 = 481,000 for the two sectors out of a reported 552,000 total. That’s 87.1 percent of all jobs.
For 2025, nonfarm payrolls excluding Private Education and Health Care lost 566,000 jobs.
So far in 2026, nonfarm payrolls excluding Private Education and Health Care gained 206,000 jobs of which 135,000 were Professional and Business Services.
Question of the Day
Does anyone believe any of this?
Today, the BLS revised employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.
BLS Comment Today
“The 2026 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data will be published on August 28, 2026. This is the same day that the first-quarter 2026 data from QCEW will be issued.”
“Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on this preliminary benchmark revision.”
By standard practice, the BLS will leave the published data and charts in a known-to-be-wrong state.
What’s Shaky?
The rebound in Professional and Business Services seems shaky. I expect more AI-related layoffs.
Note that ADP also called out softness in Leisure and Hospitality.
Looking ahead, AI is not taking Leisure and Hospitality. So what is?
The logical answer is people are eating out less.
McDonald’s Warns That Consumer ‘Anxiety’ Could Hit Results
On May 7 Bloomberg reported McDonald’s Warns That Consumer ‘Anxiety’ Could Hit Results
After reporting a strong start to the year, the chain cautioned that it expects “meaningful deceleration” in the current quarter due to a run-up in gas prices caused by the war in Iran, as well as comparisons to a successful promotion last year. There’s “heightened anxiety” among consumers, McDonald’s Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski said Thursday on a call with analysts.
These warnings come and go. People keep buying.
But did we hit a brick wall?
A brick wall is going to happen sometime, without warning.
Regardless, we still have a mostly one-sector job growth economy. Nothing about these reports look healthy even if you believe the positive aspects.
Related Posts
July 1, 2026: Manufacturing ISM Up 6 Straight Months, Employment Down 33 Straight Months
Price growth moderated but have input prices have rapidly increased for 21 months.
July 2, 2026: ADP Reported 98,000 New Jobs in June.
Job creation was uneven in June. Financial activities and information were among the gainers, while leisure and hospitality delivered a sixth month of weak hiring.
“The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation,” said Dr. Nela Richardson ,Chief Economist, ADP
July 2, 2026: Economy Adds Only 57,000 Jobs in June, Huge Negative Revisions
Employment dropped by 507,000. The unemployment rate fell because the labor force plunged by 720,000.
Leisure and Hospitality is no longer adding jobs according to two reports. That’s a significant change.
AI, domestic energy production and healthcare are what keeping the economy from a major recession. Solar energy now has about 280,000 employed in the USA, double the amount in 2016.
Newsflash: Unemployed people cannot afford $400 a night hotel rooms or $100+ per person steakhouse dinners.
McDonald’s stock down about 19% from its 52 week high.
However, WJHG is reporting working class vacation destination of Panama City Beach is reporting record tourism numbers, maybe more upper middle class are visiting and substituting that for going to on a Disney Cruise or to Europe.
In the future, the only source of income of the working class will be to provide the Epstein class with children for them to rape.
It will be interesting. The fed is gonna raise rates. For curbing inflation. Well to curb demand for how many barrels of oil we are short of per day. People are not gonna give up health care as long as the can afford it. Insurance young and heathy maybe. Old and on banana peel no so much.
They can slightly increase Quantitative Tightening without raising rates. That may help to bring annual inflation down to 3 to 3.5%. They need to recalibrate their target to 3% annual inflation (from 2%).
The majority of those newly created healthcare “jobs” are in Home Health and Personal Care Aides, many of which are people being paid to stay home and take care of their relatives:
https://www.bls.gov/oes/2021/may/sl311120.png
It is, in fact, the most common occupation in the country, heavily weighted in Democrat strongholds:
https://www.bls.gov/oes/2025/may/oews_graphic_02.png
assuming that is correct – there was hugely negative job growth in 2025 realistically speaking
Reflecting pool painter is a growth industry.
“Today, the BLS revised employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.”
Other headlines:
Last month’s BLS revision for March and April combined were 93,000 higher than previously reported. So 19,000 (+93k – 74k) total still added to previous estimates, in addition to this month’s gains.
Yeah, a nation full of geezers consuming all the healthcare, tax payer dollars, and contributing nothing won’t end well.
I have two healthcare related stories. I went to visit a doctor and the waiting room was full of geezers, about 15 and I was the youngest person in the room.
I took my 81 year old mother to a doc appointment and that place too was full of geezers. At least 20. As I’ve stated many times, 2030 is when all the boomer go over 65 so I expect every doctor’s office across America to be full of geezers.
Over the years I’ve had several of my primary care doctors tell me they couldn’t see me anymore because they were focusing on medicare patients. I guess it’s going to be ultra lucrative to focus on geezers instead of everyone else. They are after all frequent repeat customers and the tax payer is paying the endless bill.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus and the GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™
Gawd, what an ignorant comment. Economically and ethically.
IDK, maybe we should kill all the geezers.
Then, this clown would, no doubt, find something else to bitch about.
Just so you know, when the geezers put money into the pockets of doctors, those doctors buy the crap you’re selling.
Jesus, and they vote.
“Just so you know, when the geezers put money into the pockets of doctors”
Yeah, that money is called taxpayer money. You make it sound like it’s money out of YOUR pocket and we all know it’s not.
Geezers shouldn’t be killed, they should be cutoff of medicare and social security then I’ll shut up.
The healthcare and budgetary
problems of the United States neither begin nor end with Social Security and Medicare, although both are abominations.
But if you think there are problems now, try cutting off the primary source of income for 75 million people.
Then, even the doctors won’t be able to buy the crap you sell.
So you’re making the argument that without socialism (medicare and social security), the economy will collapse. Let me know how that works out for you.
…without deploying the trillions in payments into the government made by those geezers
That is, if you remove your thinking that these programs are socialism and instead replace it with treating them as taxes paid into the government that were earmarked for a specific purpose…without taxing enough to pay for said purposes…. then it would be no different than any other government program, much of which goes toward financial backstopping of the wealthy, roads, bridges, airports, dams, military, administrative…etc etc etc…
The misses father is a Podiatrist and they don’t take medicare patients at all. Said that medicare doesn’t pay enough to be worth taking. Surprised that a lot of doctors would take those patients. They must be desperate.
Well medicare only pays for services that are really needed. I struggle to see what a podiatrist provides that is really needed unless the patient has diabetes and bad feet or something.
My 90-year-old mother’s podiatrist’s waiting room was full of people who were on medicare.
Lighten up Francois, sooner or later you will become one
Old yes, a socialist no.
so you will refuse the social security and medicare? you can. feel free.
Ayn Rand signed up for social security and medicare.
A friend said that her boyfriend told her that McDonalds burgers are Canned Dog food, with both lids removed, and squished out like Poop and sliced with Butter knives.
The Cheese is processed yellow plastic. The buns are made out of ground up Cow hooves and the catsup is made of Ukrainian Children’s blood.
ALL NATURAL!
Wow! The research you’ve put in to this comment is extraordinary.
McDonalds is one of the nation’s finest and most successful farm to table restaurants.
Lies, damned lies and government statistics,
Thanks to the BCP Gestapo wannabe officers, foreign visitors are being denied entry for no good reason. Foreign tourism is falling with gusto, so expect the category Leisure and Hospitality to decline further through the year, probably for years to come.