Political realities are such that no majority coalition in Israel is likely.
Netanyahu and Anti-Netanyahu Both Short of Majority
Under Israeli law, if no coalition can form a majority government, Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister until new elections.
Polls strongly suggest another stalemate with a Netanyahu caretaker government.
The Times of Israel reports Final polls before election show both blocs short of majority, small parties out of Knesset
The final polls published Friday before Israel’s national election next week showed continued gridlock, with neither the current coalition nor the so-called change bloc predicted to be able to form a government following the vote, and a number of small parties mostly falling below the electoral threshold.
Polls are not allowed to be published beginning Saturday, until the exit polls are published the moment that voting stations close on Tuesday at 10 p.m.
A poll from Channel 13 predicted the “change bloc” of parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive 54 seats, and the parties loyal to the premier 50 seats, both falling short of the 61 necessary for a Knesset majority. The predominantly Arab parties will receive 16 seats, according to the poll.
The final polls published Friday before Israel’s national election next week showed continued gridlock, with neither the current coalition nor the so-called change bloc predicted to be able to form a government following the vote, and a number of small parties mostly falling below the electoral threshold.
Polls are not allowed to be published beginning Saturday, until the exit polls are published the moment that voting stations close on Tuesday at 10 p.m.
A poll from Channel 13 predicted the “change bloc” of parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive 54 seats, and the parties loyal to the premier 50 seats, both falling short of the 61 necessary for a Knesset majority. The predominantly Arab parties will receive 16 seats, according to the poll.
Channel 13 said Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar will get 22 seats, Netanyahu’s Likud will get 19, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad will get 14 and the left-wing Democrats will receive 10.
They were followed by the Joint List of predominantly at nine seats, while four parties had eight seats apiece: the hawkish opposition Yisrael Beytenu party, far-right Otzma Yehudit, Haredi United Torah Judaism and ultranationalist Religious Zionism. At seven seats each were ultra-Orthodox Shas and Islamist Ra’am.
The poll showed Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists party and Moti Leitner’s Charedi Public party all failing to cross the electoral threshold.
A poll from Channel 12, meanwhile, forecast the change bloc will receive 56 seats, while the coalition will get 50 seats and the Joint List and Ra’am Arab-majority parties will together get 14 seats. The survey gave Yashar 23 seats, Likud 21, B’Yachad 15, the Democrats 10, Joint List nine, Yisrael Beytenu eight, Shas eight, Otzma Yehudit eight, United Torah Judaism seven, Religious Zionism six and Ra’am five.
While Ra’am chief Mansour Abbas has said he is open to joining the change bloc coalition, several of the parties in it have ruled out sitting with the party in a government.
Political Breakdown
That shows a bit more of the complexity when most of the parties rule out a coalition with Ra’am and Joint List (itself a coalition).
Using the final polls from the Times of Israel article here are the majority possibilities.
| Poll | Change bloc | Minus Yisrael Beytenu (8) | Plus Arab parties | Total | Majority (61)? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Channel 13 | 54 | 46 | +16 | 62 | Yes |
| Channel 12 | 56 | 48 | +14 | 62 | Yes |
| Kan | 52 | 44 | +14 | 58 | No |
Yisrael Beytenu (ישראל ביתנו, “Israel Our Home”) is a right-wing Israeli political party led by Avigdor Liberman. It is even more hawkish than Netanyahu.
- Liberman resigned as defense minister in 2018 because he considered Netanyahu’s approach to Gaza too restrained.
- The party emphasizes preemptive action, “decisive outcomes,” and rejecting containment policies toward Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
- Liberman has repeatedly criticized Netanyahu for what he calls insufficient aggression and for managing rather than defeating threats.
- It supports expanding settlements and has opposed pathways to a Palestinian state.
The Arab parties would not join Beytenu. Nor would some of the other parties enter a coalition with Ra’am and Joint List.
Stalemate History
- 2019: Two elections produced deadlocks. Neither Netanyahu nor his main rival (Benny Gantz’s Blue and White) could assemble a 61-seat majority. The core divide was framed as “only Bibi” vs. “anyone but Bibi,” intensified by Netanyahu’s corruption indictments.
- 2020: A third election led to a short-lived unity government with Gantz that collapsed within a year.
- 2021: A fourth election produced the “government of change” (Bennett–Lapid, including the Arab party Ra’am). It ousted Netanyahu after 12 consecutive years but lasted only about a year before collapsing.
- November 2022: A fifth election returned Netanyahu with a right-wing/religious coalition. That government completed a full four-year term (the first full Knesset term in nearly four decades), lasting until the current 2026 election.
- 2026: The October 27 vote is the sixth national election since 2019. Polls again show both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu (change) blocs short of 61 seats.
Netanyahu has been prime minister for most of the period since 2009 (interrupted only by the 2021–22 change government), totaling roughly 19 years across his terms.
The recurring inability of either the “pro-Netanyahu” or “anti-Netanyahu” blocs to reliably reach a stable majority—driven by corruption cases, Haredi draft issues, Arab-party red lines, and personal rivalries—has defined the stalemate since 2019.
Expect another stalemate.
Netanyahu Corruption
- Indicted: November 2019 (Cases 1000, 2000, and 4000 — bribery, fraud, and breach of trust).
- Trial opened: May 2020.
- Prosecution phase: Ran for years. Witness testimony started in April 2021. The prosecution eventually rested (around mid-2024 after reducing the witness list).
- Defense phase: Netanyahu himself began testifying in late 2024. He finished his own testimony in June 2026 after roughly 98 hearings over about 18 months. He denied all the charges and repeatedly called the case a political “witch hunt.”
- Current status (Oct 2026): Other defense witnesses are still being heard (including former Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit). The court has sped up the schedule to five days a week. No verdict yet.
The case has been delayed many times by COVID, wars, security issues, and the sheer volume of evidence.
This trial is still ongoing after six years.
Mish View
I view Netanyahu as a corrupt politician, a huge obstacle to peace, and one who is guilty of war crimes.
This is not the same as siding with Hamas. Anti-Netanyahu ≠ Pro-Hamas.
Netanyahu’s long tenure, expansion of settlements, reliance on far-right coalition partners, and opposition to a two-state framework have made territorial compromise harder.
Netanyahu is a major and polarizing figure who has shaped Israeli policy for a long time, too long.
Counter-arguments
The conflict’s deepest barriers predate Netanyahu and would remain even if he left office tomorrow.
Hamas, which controls Gaza, has a charter and explicit ideology that rejects Israel’s existence.
The Palestinian Authority has continued payments to terrorists’ families (“pay for slay”) and has not fully renounced violence or incitement.
Regardless of View on Netanyahu
Two wrongs never make a right. Things will remain unchanged until someone on each side decides killing is enough or there is some other impetus for change.
Trump bending over backward listening to Netanyahu is one of the reasons behind the war with Iran.
Meanwhile, I denounce both Hamas and what I believe are war crimes by the current government in response.
Unfortunately, the practical question is whether any combination of pressure, exhaustion, or leadership change is likely to produce the mutual restraint that I seek.
The fact that Netanyahu is getting this amount of votes despite supporting Hamas for years and years is evidence the Israelis aren’t anti-Hamas, they’re just pro-genocide racial supremacists on a scale not seen since the 1940s and maybe even further back than that.
Netanyahu funneled money to Hamas because Hamas opposes a 2 state solution. Netanyahu thereby encouraged/shaped the concentration camp that Gaza was/is to be impossible for peaceful negotiation.
according to CSPAN, political analyst from Israel. it will be days or weeks for a coalition gov to form and elect a new prime minister.
Does it really matter much which Coalition forms to lead Israel? Some experts say Israel leads most American Military strategies in the Middle East and has held that position for over 40 years already? Why does little Israel with only 5 Million people control Middle East Military policy for the Sugar Daddy America which has 350 Million people? America funds the vast majority of these Military Strategies. Is it just the massive success at Bribery and Blackmail of American Politicians from both Parties by the lobbies from Israel?
https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/08/control-mechanisms-how-israel-runs.html
Netanyahu is now warning of a second Holocaust if he loses the upcoming elections, accompanying it on social media with an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion.
In the post on X, he shared text written by Yuval Bloomberg warning of catastrophic circumstances if Netanyahu lost power.
https://x.com/netanyahu/status/2114286556034859410
Bless your heart, you practice primate grammar.
Like Trump, his age is showing
great comment susie. lived in SC for a decade. bless your heart means fuck you, in brooklyn
are you intelligent enough to know that you are a primate. like all humans. i doubt it.
And yet it’s the same old story: Israel stirs up antisemitism (just look at the retard below), holds Jews hostage in hopes of forcing them to move there and enlist in their little army, and demands everyone else apologize for the vile antisemitic screeds they themselves help produce.
Europe and America need to take responsibility for the bad seed they planted, cut Israel off, and enforce a genuine two state solution with hefty reparations.
Step 1 – US stops arming Israel and giving it cover at the UN
Step 2 – UN resolution reaffirming previous resolutions and stating an interim solution (e.g. currrent borders, stop to new settlements, start of moving settlements back to Israel)
Step 3 – International peace force to protect both sides
Step 4 – Support for ICC if either side breaks the resolution
Not going to happen as the US can’t help itself. I think Europe would.
Like saying that all humans gotta do is stop putting sociopaths in high places and we got the problem licked.
Imagine if the world community had come together to help both sides come to an ending peace.
Instead we had the usual suspect arming one side to the teeth and implicitly supporting a genocide.
Both sides in this conflict have reasons to act irrationally so it is only with outside honest impartial help that it will be solved. Well done Team America.
God doth have a sense of humor. Time to escalate to break the deadlock.
The problem is not Netanyahu (whom half of the Israeli Jews fully support anyway), are the Jews themselves.
Netanyahu’s alternatives are just as bad as far as wars and control of America’s foreign (and domestic) policies go.
Just like the different US Presidents, you only get some slightly different flavors of the same shit. With Trump and Netanyahu the focus is on the war to Iran and (for the US) the confrontation with China, with the next Autopen and the anti-Netanyahu coalition the focus would be on consolidating the Israeli military positions recently gained against all of their neighbors and on strenghtening the military (the opposition wants to EXPAND it) and (for the US) going back to putting at the center the war to Russia (which the US has NEVER given up on).
The problem is not Jews, the problem is Zionists. Yes, almost all Zionists are Jews (though many evangelicals, like US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, also seem to embrace Zionism), but not all Jews are Zionists.
Millions of Jews oppose what Israel is doing.
“The problem is not Jews, the problem is Zionists.”
Not at all. Just to give you a quick example Chabad Lubavitch, the second most widespread Jewish ideology after Zionism among the Jews with power, is even worse than Zionism.
“Millions of Jews oppose what Israel is doing.”
Most of those are in the West and have been fucking up our societies in millions of other ways. They promote and are usually at the root of EVERYTHING that is wrong and that has wrecked our civilization: feminism, open borders, LGBTQ and any other sexual degeneracy down to pedophilia, “green” fanaticism etc etc
Feminism ruined everything? Women have only had rights for about five decades. We were owned throughout most of history. In America, Coverture laws weren’t completed eliminated until the 1970’s or so. We had no rights to reproductive freedom until birth control and abortion were made legal. So, as a women, I appreciate feminists. They fought for what men would not give us. Freedom. Leave it to conservative males to say freedom for me not for thee. And the rest of what you had to say was also bull shit. Conservatives love themselves some pedophilia by the way.
And the end result of all that is the destruction of the family, the society at large and, ultimately, the misery the women themselves are in today.
From the affirmation of feminism as a core “value” of today’s first world societies women’s attempted suicides, women’s diagnosed mental illnesses and women’s use of psychiatric drugs have SKYROCKETED while women’s self reported happiness has NOSE-DIVED.
Trash. That’s you. Most likely a basement dwelling INCEL. CANT GET LAID. Dude a shower. A visit with the dentist. Some clean clothes…and you still won’t get laid you ugly ugly human.
TYPICAL women’s response: attack the messenger and not the message because you have no fucking argument whatsoever and above all attack the man’s manhood and virility, LMAO!
I will let you know that I am happily married with 2 children (a boy and a girl) and before my wife I had quite a few relationships (thanks to our feminist and feminized society and social norms which basically turned women into whores by turning loose their innate hypergamous primordial instincts) which contributed A LOT to my enlightenment about the true female nature…
Don’t believe you for one fucking minute you ugly ugly male.
Thanks for further proving my point.
I’m pretty much sure your mom would love to have you leave her basement. She’s so tired of listening to you mastebate in the basement to child porn. Grow up. Move out.
Thanks for further proving my point.
BINGO. WINNER.
Israel has killed on the order of 80-100 thousand Gazans and Lebanese, the majority women and children. After decades of being held in the concentration camp that was Gaza. Israel has destroyed the homes of 2 million people. And you expect Palestinians to renounce violence?
I think an actual census will produce rather more ghastly numbers.
Agree. Look at the photos not just of Gaza City but even of Rafah in the south. Most of the strip has been flattened. The dead will never be found. Eventually it will be approximated by counting how many of the 2.5 million Gazans remain. I would bet a million have died already. Israel would call that a good start. They have become the Nazis.
Those number, BTW are intentionally steelmanned. The actual death toll is assuredly much higher.
The Gaza Health Ministry numbers are of bodies recovered. There are undoubtedly many more bodies under all the rubble created by the daily indiscriminate bombing. The highly-regarded British medical journal The Lancet examined this issue in mid-2024 and concluded that the death toll at that time could be conservatively estimated at 186,000. Almost daily killings in Gaza by Israel have continued almost every day since then, so the total is undoubtedly much higher now.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext
Israel is the worst invention of the 20th century. Maybe even worse than nuclear weapons. Why do a bunch of Europeans based on some gibberish fabricated centuries ago get to call themselves God’s chosen people and help themselves to the land that other people are living on? The whole state needs to be dismantled.
because the british used them as useful idiots after the war. as an outpost for a colony they could rule in the sea of oil. that’s the real story. the rest is bullshit jews tell themselves. total useful idiots.
Use Israel to control and contain the whole ME.
Use Ukraine to control and contain Russia.
Use ?Taiwan to control and contain China.
Use weak, small and dependant states.
Psychological support to be far right. (Manipulate)
Financial support to be rich
Armed to the teeth.
Train to fight till the last man.
marxist leninism did far worse. mao did some damage with that flim flam operation, too. the shit in mideast is chicken shit compared to the devastation of USSR and China 20th c.
You are both talking about the same shit: Jews.
The Jews were among the ruling elite in the Soviet Union and Communism itself was invented by a Jew.
Jews occupied surprisingly many higher up positions in Nazi Germany too.
Bullshit. Stalin and Mao were far from Jews.
Again: the Jews were among the ruling elite in the Soviet Union and Communism itself was invented by a Jew.
Also: Jewish bankers financed both Communist revolutions and in the ’30s and ’40s tens of thounsands of Jews fled to Shanghai and were involved in the revolution.
Look at the West’s “enemies” today, they are only countries which Jews don’t have a real and direct control on: China, Russia (still a big indirect influence here), Iran, Nord Korea.
It’s them. It’s ALWAYS them.
P.S. The very first thing Venezuela did after the US-financed coup against Maduro was to reopen the Israeli Embassy…
No doubt whatsoever that’s the first thing Cuba will do as well if it falls back in the hands of the Judeo-Americans.
> Communism itself was invented by a Jew
AI begs to disagree, even if it has a bad reputation of being plain propaganda when it comes to politics, medicine, Russia / Ukraine, climate change and the other usual narratives
“Karl Marx was of Jewish descent on both sides: his paternal grandfather and maternal grandfather were both rabbis, and his paternal uncle was the rabbi of Trier. However, his father converted to Lutheranism in 1816 (largely to protect his legal career), and Marx himself was baptized Lutheran at age six. He grew up secular, became an atheist, and never practiced Judaism. The historian Shlomo Avineri, who wrote a biography of Marx in Yale’s Jewish Lives series, concluded that Marx simply did not have enough knowledge of traditional Jewish thought for it to directly inform his ideas.
Friedrich Engels had no Jewish ancestry whatsoever. His family was a prominent Protestant, Pietist merchant family in Barmen, documented back through multiple generations. Claims that Engels was Jewish or of partial Jewish descent are unsupported by any genealogical evidence”
You do not get it. It’s not the RELIGION (although that’s a big part of the problem), it’s the GENES.
Marx was a Jew as were very many in the top ruling elite of the Soviet Union. WAY OVERREPRESENTED as they are today in Western (American first and foremost) politcs, finance, media, movie industry, porn industry etc etc
The tsar Nicolai II and his family were killed by a plotoon of bolsheviks led by Yakov Yurovsky, a Jew who, like Marx, formally renounced Judaism.
The most violent and extreme policies and actions in Soviet Russia, the ones which killed millions of Christian ethnic Russians, were led by ethnic Jews.
Thanks for the clarification. Bolsheviks certainly caused a bloodbath among – mainly Coptic Christians – in Russia at the time, tens of millions victims.
Seems to be a key document about the ongoing communist world take-over. Haven’t read it yet.
https://archive.org/details/the-red-symphony-x-ray-of-the-revolution-1968-dr.-j.-landowsky/Red%20Symphony%20-%20J.%20Landowsky/
That book is not about a Communist world take-over, that book is about the existence of a secret global cabal of international financiers of Judeo-Masonic origin. According to the proposed theory, both Western financial capitalism and Soviet communism are two sides of the same coin, created and controlled by the same Jewish banking elites with the ultimate goal of destroying nation-states and establishing a New World Order.
Which is basically what’s actually happening…
Wow!!! Nazi much? What trash you are. It’s in the genes…you are so whacked.
And you are so much of a brainwashed ignorant retard.
But then again, you are a woman so that goes without saying…
You never heard of Maotzah balls?
“Why do a bunch of Europeans based on some gibberish fabricated centuries ago get to call themselves God’s chosen people and help themselves to the land that other people are living on? ”
Are you talking about Israel or Nazi Germany?
Jeffrey Epstein is God’s Chosen Person and if don’t believe that and bow down, you’ll be cursed. Just ask Rev. John Hagee, Rev. Franklin Graham, or Rev. Mike Huckabee.
meanwhile: 19 more House ratings move in Dems’ direction, including six seats from Toss Up to Lean D.
https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2113606220275982432/photo/1
will aipac have more or less influence after next tuesday ?
Less. Especially once the other Congress critters come to understand that being an unfettered Zionist is an electoral negative.
Same. The neocons never give up after a defeat. They just regroup, go to ground, wait and try another angle.
It took some.12 years for them to get the Second War On Iraq, but they got the war they so craved.
After that disaster, it took a while for them to get the Wars On Syria and Iran, but they got them.
They all know that already. AIPAC is not going away, they are just going underground. They will still funnel the same money, and even more, to political candidates, they will just do it secretly, through instructing major AIPAC donors to contribute directly to candidates. That allows the candidates to say they don’t take any money from AIPAC, but of course they will continue to do whatever AIPAC asks, since they know where the money is really coming from.
Arabs could still pick the winner. The coalitions are not necessarily as rigid as you describe.
pro tip. israel was set up as a useful idiot puppet of the UK. we inherited their empire, and french empire, in the region. i have had discussions with pals in mossad in brooklyn in past and they agree. they are a useful idiot offshore colony of USA empire. but they also have their tentacles on our congress and some of our president’s testes and teats. without usa protection they are doomed. they know it. we are pulling up stakes in gulf countries since the great donald epstein fury made persia attack gulf states. israel will have to make nice in region as we go out of business……..or they won’t make their 100 year anniversary as useful idiots. just think for a minute. the UK convinced european jews to settle in mideast surrounded by a billion muslims. take the long view and go back to crusades. the jews were protected by muslims. but they were mideast jews. in brooklyn they are called sephardic. and dark skinned middle eastern blood line jews. it’s complicated.
And of course your “pals in mossad” would have no motive at all telling you that Israel is only a victim of the evil empires, powerless to set its own course, and certainly not influencing other countries…
I concur with Mish’s take on Netanyahu and Trump. All this is brewing a future far uglier than it has to be, for everyone touching on this, meaning, for everyone.