Seat-by-seat I explain my projections.
Cook Political Moves 19 More Seats in Democrats Favor
That has been the trend for months. Over time, it’s been many of the same seats over and over. Seats move from lean Republican to tossup to lean democrat, etc.
Cook Political Changing Assessment
- September 25, 2026: GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Towards Dems
- October 9, 2026: Eighteen More House Race Ratings Move in Democrats’ Favor
- October 16, 2026: Eleven More House Races Shift Toward Democrats
- October 23, 2026: Democrats’ Projected Majority Grows as 19 More House Races Shift Away From the GOP
It was not until September 25 that Cook Political was willing to accept Democrats were likely to win the House. There range on that date was 220-230.
As of October 23, the Cook Political range is a more realistic 227-237. All summer my assessment was 230 or higher. Cook Political nearly caught up.
Mish Fearless House Forecast
How I arrived at 239
All year, my base assumption was Democrats would win nearly every tossup seat.
This weekend I reviewed all the seats that Cook Political labeled tossup, lean Republican, and likely Republican.
I compared Cook Political’s map to Nate Silver and Split Ticket House projections.
Most of Cook Political’s tossups are what I would label Lean Democrat. I moved all of those into the Democrat column.
My assumptions are shown above. I think Democrats win 14 of 17 seats Cook Political calls tossups, Republicans win FL-22, and the other two are genuine tossups.
All told I have 8 genuine tossups and I assigned half of those to Democrats.
I expect surprises in both directions but they are more likely in Democrat’s favor.
Mish Ranges
- Single Best Estimate: 239
- Narrow Range: 232-244
- Wide Range: 226-248
If the polls over or underestimate performance by a two points, the wide range comes into play.
If you are looking for a race that is not shown in my clip, it is either Solid Democrat or Solid Republican.
PA-01 Audible
This morning I called an audible on PA-01 based on the recent New York Times/Siena Poll.
I am willing to throw away August and September polls, then take momentum and ridiculous statements by Trump and Ramaswamy in nearby Ohio into consideration and go a bit out on a limb.
I suspect on this poll Cook Political will soon move this race into their tossup category.
Indiana 5th District
I am watching IN-05 for a friend. Nate Silver has Republican Spartz at 85 percent. Split Ticket has Spartz at 90 percent and Cook Political has Spartz as likely.
The best news for Democrat J.D. Ford is a veritable dearth of polls.
It’s certainly an uphill battle for Ford, but given the lack of polling, the experts are making some assumptions that may not be true in this toxic political environment.
If the most recent Democrat-sponsored poll is not biased, Ford has a better chance than the election experts think.
In every election there are real shockers. In this case, if Republican turnout is very low, and the Ford backers get out the vote, there’s a chance. Best wishes to my friend.
Related Posts
October 21, 2026: Cook Political Reports Democrats Lead Senate Races in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa
We are nearing the “stick a fork in it” stage.
October 22, 2026: Ramaswamy’s Pedophile-Defending Ad in Ohio May Be the End of His Political Career
Even Ohio’s Republican Governor Blasts Ramaswamy.
October 23, 2026: Spotlight Iowa: The Self-Inflicted Damage by House Republicans Is Stunning
“Thank God you’re building the ballroom,” says rep. Joe Mitchell.
October 24, 2026: Fox News Poll Puts Democrats 5 Points Ahead in Ohio Senate Race
Whatever chance Republicans had, just flew out the window in the Trump-Ramaswamy attack ad fiasco.
The cluelessness of Republicans in the waning moments of this election has been stunning.
I still fear that the polls are again wrong, and all of these races that are within 2 or 3 points will go to republicans. At least that is my feeling in Texas….
Gridlock. More impeachment on the menu. Wonder if they will get new standing orders to end the war or just carry on.
The war is a bipartisan project. Team D will stand on the sidelines and kvetch about process, but not question the war itself.
Until the U.S. has a president that takes his job as something more than a profitable amusement ride we are in limbo…
Axios has a story about the Dems pulling PAC funding from some contested races (because they’re short of $.) I can’t read it because I don’t subscribe but there’s a summary on Zerohedge. Not that money alone would do the trick but it might help the lazy 30 and under crowd get off the couch. Now they might not bother. While it might be obvious I’ll mention it anyway, the Republicans have plenty of money.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democrats-retreat-house-races-they-hoped-flip
the money difference is huge. for a midterm in a 2nd term potus i do not for a minute think this race is a lock. won’t matter anyway. trump is king. congress is more meaningless each decade…….the imperial presidency book written by a guy i know from cato was spot on. the more important thing coming up is the 2028 presidential race begins the day after next tuesday. my nightmare prediction is Rs win president and house in 2028 and make Trump the speaker of house. and he really resides in oval office as acting president. with either little marco or jd as his puppets on the couches……….
Assisted suicide anyone?
trump might go out the way hitler did. probably televise it for prosperity.
I wouldn’t believe a thing I read in Axios. It’s a Republican/ Israeli mouthpiece rag.
And I give Zerohedge the same credibility as the Weekly World News and other tabloids. But it is amusing sometimes. At some point ZH became political, rather than just finance. They lost me a long time ago.
They have a good piece now and then on some macro/global stuff, and they are good at breaking key headlines with instant analysis. But you have to be able to cut through all the bs like an Amazon forest ranger
Put your money on Kalshi now. Please. I need better odds. Are all those polls you rely on put out by Wedgewood and the NY slimes(times). One dollar is only getting me $9.
How much did you bet on Kalshi that oil would be $40 by year end 2026? After all, you told me that oil would be closer to $40 than $100 by year end.
What JAN2027 options should I buy now?
I still think JD’s 6 pepper pep talks will drive the va-jay-jays out of weakling Republican men. No empathy. No quarter. Take no prisoners. Live executions. Amy’s stepdad was victim of a 12-year-old bitch serial liar. You would almost think JD goes to bars every weekend and gets into fistfights just for the fun of it. The guy’s manly reputation is soaring. A cold-blooded, nation-wide red revenge wave is coming for all these woke DEI farmer/rancher/trucker defectors.
😂
Calm your manboobs, Adolph.
Like Joe Stealin Biden or some other Soviet Joe said
something like
its not the votes but those who count the votes that determine elections
Actual quotes are a thing. Facts are a thing. “Something like” might be the refuge of something like a lazy defamer. or not, but who will verify or unverify such a mess? And what kind of person claims others’ valuable attention and time on earth this way, without paying others that kind of minimal respect?
Bots are a thing.
Hope you’re right. Burned enough times over the last decade to expect the worst.
been punting on politics since the 1980s when i had to use london bookies……..funny and arrogant to think anyone can analyze 435 house seats. like betting on final score in a super duper bowl. the one thing i’m certain of, nobody could pass a blind test on who controlled the congress or potus the past 60 years. besides abortion laws. it’s one big uniparty of imperial cunts. from the voters to the politicians and military industrial congressional complex. MICC
Such an edgelord 🙄
Civil rights / Non-white
Gay rights
Labor
Environment
Religion
And don’t get me wrong, Obama, Joe and the Clintons are faaaar from what I’d call “acceptable” foreign policy but one party has clearly been more beholden to defense contractor budgets and started more wars than the other.
I used to vote third party (not this time round) but this D=R shit had really ramped up once MAGA realized they are gonna get crushed. If they can’t win, no one can, I guess…
Yup. If someone can’t distinguish between the parties right now, that’s because they’re not paying attention.
like genocide joe running shotgun over famine and genocide in GAZA ? or Obama/Biden sending CIA into ukraine in 2014 to flip and election and start a civil war………? or obama fire bombing libya and filming their leader getting a steel rod up his anus and scalped and paraded on a flat bed truck……….? it is a uniparty of imperial death and destruction. the people and their elected leaders. democracy works. always has. face the reality of life. not some dream world where your side is righteous.
THANKS OBAMA. On October 20, 2011, Gaddafi was captured by National Transitional Council (NTC) rebel fighters in his hometown of Sirte, Libya. The precise sequence of events verified by extensive video footage and human rights investigations shows:
Hillary laughed about that. She was obviously unworthy of the presidency.
yup. correction. it was a machine gun bayonet he was sodomized by on film………..these morons still think the Blue party is different.
The Blues are gay in public.
The Reds are gay in private.
So I’m guessing his popularity numbers were fake…
you do realize amerikan presidents stopped going out among the public of the usa and the world, decades ago. they need an army of guards, now. that is the clue to how hated leaders are. the president of switzerland can ride a train without security detail.
More people = more crazies, even if you are doing a good job.
Your odds get worse if you don’t do a good job and add justifiably angries to the threat pool.
What does that have to do with anything?
you sound like ignorant. or home schooled……. who started EPA for instance. NIXON. or look at civil rights votes. Civil Rights Act of 1957
Civil Rights Act of 1964
When the landmark 1964 act came to a vote, majorities in both parties supported it, though Southern members of both parties (predominantly Southern Democrats) mounted strong opposition, including a 60-day Senate filibuster.
Voting Rights Act of 1965
Are there still “southern” democrats?
Their spawn became MAGA. As for Nixon and Reagan, who both signed significant pollution fighting bills, they both lived in smoggy Los Angeles, which means, to get a conservative to do the right thing, they literally have to be almost choked to death.
there was a sizeable number not too many years ago. haven’t really looked into it past few election cycles. i moved out of the deep deep south in 2002. the real deal is they carved out some safe black districts in states like my old SC so they get buy in on the uniparty scam from black folks. exhibit A is jim clyburn. see what he did to get genocide joe elected in 2020 cycle primary. downright criminal.
The last half of Trumpstien’s term will be all about trashing the country as punishment.
Correct.
And also making as much money as he can.
The bigger question is, will this “blue wave” election be allowed to stand and be accepted by the current administration?
And if not, how will the various demographics of the country respond?
Aside from the standard monthlong ballot-counting in California, it’ll be uneventful, IMO. The danger is what the lame duck Congress will try to ram through – like the United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative.
We are going to see what happens when the branch with no guns tries to check the branch with guns.
I’m going 243 in the House and 54 in the senate. Plucked from the air, TBH.
quite a reasonable forecast.
This is the first time I made an try at calling every House seat
You put a lot of work into it. I’m just going with my feelings – that people are more pissed about another war for Israel than they’ll tell let on.