Fox News Poll Puts Democrats 5 Points Ahead in Ohio Senate Race

Whatever chance Republicans had, just flew out the window in the Trump-Ramaswamy attack ad fiasco.

Brown 52 Husted 47

This poll was October 15-19 ahead of the political suicide by Ramaswamy and Trump in an attack ad controversy.

Undoubtedly, Ramaswamy and Trump poisoned Ramaswamy’s gubernatorial race and likely every Ohio race as well.

I will recap the misguided ad, but first, let’s discuss the Fox News Poll .

Powered by a clear favorability advantage, a large gender gap and voter discontent with both household finances and President Donald Trump, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has the edge over appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted in the Ohio Senate race.

A Fox News survey of likely Ohio voters finds Brown leads Husted, 52% to 47%.

Brown’s advantage is anchored by his stronger personal standing, with his favorability rating 2 points above water (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Husted’s rating sits 13 points underwater (42% favorable, 55% unfavorable).

The president’s standing in Ohio adds to Husted’s difficulties. Trump won the Buckeye State with 55% of the vote in 2024, but just 43% now approve of his job performance. A 57% majority disapproves, with 46% saying they “strongly” disapprove.

Meanwhile, 52% express concern that Husted is too close to Trump, including 38% who are extremely concerned. Brown faces similar concerns about being too liberal, as 50% are worried, though fewer, 30%, are extremely concerned.

Ohio Partisan Crossover

Partisan crossovers further tilt the field toward the challenger. While Husted receives 90% of Republicans, 9% cross over to back Brown. Some 97% of Democrats support Brown, while just 2% choose Husted, and Brown carries independents by nearly two to one.

Voters who view both Senate candidates unfavorably prefer Husted by nearly 20 points.

Brown is up by 9 points among those who are extremely interested in the election and leads by 29 points among the 15% of Ohioans who say they have already voted.

Legislative preference tilts toward the Democrats, with Ohioans dividing 50% for Democratic control of the U.S. Senate and 48% for Republican control.

Governor’s Race

In the governor’s contest, likely voters favor Democrat Amy Acton over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 50% to 48%. Women favor Acton by 10 points, while men back Ramaswamy by 7, a nearly identical gender gap to the Senate race.

Ticket splitting goes in both directions: 8% of Brown supporters cross over to Ramaswamy, while 6% of Husted supporters back Acton.

The survey was completed before a negative television ad from Ramaswamy’s campaign featuring Acton’s estranged mother became public.

Beacon and Shaw for Fox News Poll

Conducted October 15-19, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 2,005 Ohio registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (219) and cellphones (1,306) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (480). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points, and, for the subsample of 1,592 likely voters, it is ±2 percentage points.

This is a very high quality poll by a reputable pollster.

The sample 2,005 registered voters of which 1,592 are likely voters is a good sample size.

Pollsters Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) are considered neutral. Ignore the headline “Fox News” and focus on the pollster.

Don’t assume Fox is biased towards Republicans and thus the margin is even bigger.

Ohio Governor’s Race Attack Ad Background

Popular Information: At 12 years old, Amy Acton was the victim of sexual abuse. After her stepfather was indicted on charges of raping Acton, her estranged mother, Donna Arthur, took her stepfather’s side and left the state with him as he fled justice.

Now, Acton is the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Ohio and her Republican opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy, is turning her history of abuse into a political attack ad. In the ad, Arthur accuses Acton of lying about her past.

The ad began circulating on social media on Monday night when it was included in a political survey. On Tuesday evening, Ramaswamy told reporters that the ad came from his campaign but had not yet been shown on TV. Despite bipartisan backlash, Ramaswamy’s campaign decided to dig in later on Tuesday night, spending $4 million to air the ad across Ohio.

In the ad, Arthur did not specifically mention the rape charges against her husband, but repeatedly called her daughter a liar. “Amy has a serious problem. She is a liar. She lies about her past. She says she grew up living in a tent. None of that is true. She’s lied her entire life,” Arthur said.

Arthur’s account, however, is not credible.

Court records indicate that Acton’s stepfather was found living in a tent when Acton was a child, and Acton’s campaign provided documents to CBS indicating that the family lived in a tent for a year.

Arthur has previously claimed that Acton lied about being raped by her stepfather. In a 2020 interview with an anti-abortion group called Operation Rescue, Arthur said, “I haven’t seen my daughter since she was 12 years old and that was when my daughter lied and said my second husband raped her.”

Acton’s stepfather, Cledith Arthur, was arrested and charged with raping Acton in 1978. He pleaded not guilty but was later indicted by a grand jury. Arthur supported her husband after his arrest. She went with him when he fled Ohio for Pennsylvania to avoid prosecution, abandoning her children. Cledith Arthur never returned to Ohio, despite warrants for his arrest. He died in 2004.

Political Suicide

• Republican Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina sharply criticized the ad, calling it “the most shameful, disgusting, offensive ad this election season.”
• Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said the ad “needs to come down.” 
• Republican Sen. John Husted of Ohio told the Associated Press he would not have aired the commercial.
• Republican Lydia Mihalik, director of the Ohio Department of Development and former mayor of Findlay, wrote on X: “I don’t have to agree with Amy Acton’s politics to believe that exploiting someone’s childhood trauma is wrong. … There is a difference between fighting for your principles and abandoning them to win.”
• Former Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who is now a prominent MAGA critic, wrote on X: “This Ramaswamy ad in OH is looking more and more like political suicide.”
• Chris Christie via Washington Post: “Seriously? The question for all Republicans is whether this type of attitude is what we want leading our party going forward. For the last decade, our party has been infected by a corrupted moral center. Vance’s acceptance of this campaign ad only breathes life into the disease that we should be seeking to cure.”

Ramaswamy’s Pedophile-Defending Ad in Ohio May Be the End of His Political Career

On October 22, I commented Ramaswamy’s Pedophile-Defending Ad in Ohio May Be the End of His Political Career

Even Ohio’s Republican Governor Blasts Ramaswamy.

Question of the Day

Q: Why or how could anyone be stupid enough to run that ad?
A: Desperation

The bipartisan backlash was quick except by J.D. Vance who is going to regret his stupid comments.

Cook Political Shifts Race

On October 23, Cook Political commented Amid Ad Uproar, Ohio Governor’s Race Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democrat

The trajectory of Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds in the Ohio governor’s race has been clear to us for the last few weeks. But the campaign’s decision this week to air a deeply personal attack ad against opponent Amy Acton confirmed that the race is slipping away from him — and perhaps creating some collateral damage for fellow Republicans on the way. We are moving this race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.

The ad, which was swiftly condemned by the most high-profile Republicans in the state, features Acton’s long-estranged mother calling her daughter a liar. Left unsaid is that the cause of the nearly fifty-year estrangement is that Acton, who has spoken openly about enduring child abuse, was removed from her mother’s care at the age of 12 after she accused her stepfather of sexual assault. The man skipped a warrant for his arrest, and Acton’s mother stood by him.

At first, the controversial ad appeared online without a disclaimer. But Ramaswamy soon confirmed it came from his campaign — and that they would put $4 million behind it on TV.

We haven’t talked to a GOP source who thought this was a good idea. This is not the kind of TV ad you run if you’re winning — or even if you’re confident you can. Recent polls were trending in Acton’s direction even before the bombshell ad became a national news story. Our own Battleground Survey, conducted by New River Strategies and GS Strategies, showed Acton leading Ramaswamy by five points, 49%-44% An Oct. 15-18 Marist survey, conducted before the ad dropped, found Acton leading by seven, 50%-43%, while a Fox News poll conducted Oct. 15-19 showed Acton up two, 50%-48%.

What’s clear is that — despite $151.4 million in spending between his campaign, super PAC and the RGA, — Ramaswamy remains an unpopular figure and hasn’t been able to shake his polarizing image. It’s telling that he doesn’t speak in any of his own ads but that they do feature his wife and kids.

The controversy could also create headaches for GOP candidates outside the governor’s race. Ohio Senate candidate Jon Husted distanced himself from it, but both President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance vigorously defended the ad and its content. Another vulnerable GOP Senate candidate, Iowa’s Ashley Hinson, criticized Vance for his defense of the “terrible” ad, only to walk back some of her harshest words hours later.

This race may still end up having a close margin given the fundamentals of the state, but we have to call Acton a slight favorite at this point, especially with the events of the past week.

What Cook Political labels a “slight favorite” I label a clear favorite. And in light of the Fox News Poll the same applies to the Senate race.

Trump Throws Husted an Anchor

Truth Social: Vivek Ramaswamy put up a very powerful Ad about a mother saying that her daughter, Amy Acton, who is running for Governor of Ohio, is a liar, and much worse. The Press, in a concerted and well coordinated attack, is trying to get Vivek Ramaswamy to “take down the Ad.” Frankly, anybody whose mother spoke about a daughter in that way would normally lead to the daughter being precluded from serving in Office, let alone the Office of Governor. If my mother, the legendary Mary MacLeod Trump, said anything bad about me, the Fake News would play it up. The Dumocrats would be totally supportive, and it would go down as the Ad of the Decade — Maybe the Century! It would win Awards for Excellence in Advertising. But, because Vivek, who will be a GREAT Governor, put it out, the “Artificial” News has teamed up against him in order to damage, demean, and embarrass a Republican who is leading in the Polls. Our RINO Governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine, who I unfortunately helped get elected years ago, when he was losing by 16 points prior to my doing a Rally for him was, as usual, disloyal to the Republican Party. He strongly suggested that Vivek should, “take down the Ad.” He probably wants a Dumocrat to win, and certainly doesn’t want someone who will do a much better job than he is capable of doing. I suggested, on the other hand, that Vivek should keep it up, and let everyone listen to the mother of a defective, dishonest, and incapable Candidate, explain how the daughter is a DISASTER who, uncontrollably, lies, cheats, and steals! I only wish the mothers of my opponents would be so brave as to come forward and explain that their son or daughter is a liar, and much worse. That took a lot of courage to do but, essentially, what she was really doing was saving Ohio from making a truly horrible choice! The Press is trying to convince everyone that this Ad is bad, because it’s so good! Who wouldn’t use such an Ad? I would, it’s called, “hitting pay dirt.” The fact is, Lyin’ Amy Acton, who I’ve never even heard of before, has been lying about Vivek for the entire Campaign. I know the real Vivek, he is a brilliant and outstanding person who will cut Taxes, stop Crime and, MAKE OHIO GREAT AGAIN. He will be a fantastic Governor! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Oct 22, 2026, 12:38 PM

Offensive to Every Sensible Person

Evidence strongly suggests Amy Acton’s mother is a liar. Rape charges are a matter of legal record.

And actual records show the family lived in the shelter Amy described.

Amy’s brother confirms the details.

This is another unforced error by Trump that rates to disgust every sensible woman in the country. It should disgust everyone.

Political Infighting

Trump’s infighting with “RINO Governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine” is not going to help republicans one bit.

It’s yet another self-inflicted wound.

Infighting with Cornyn is likely to cost Republicans a senate seat in Texas, and it may even be the deciding seat.

Previously Trump’s 100 percent loyalty demands cost Republicans two Senate seats in Georgia, one in Arizona, and another in Pennsylvania.

Definition of RINO

Trump’s definition of RINO (Republican In Name Only) has come to mean disagreement with Trump on anything.

With that, Trump has literally destroyed the Republican party and it will be obvious after these midterms.

Nate Silver Ohio Polls

Silver weights the Fox News Poll (Beacon/Shaw) heavily as he should.

But he underweights the Cook Political poll. And he overweights other polls going back to August.

Silver says Brown leads by 3.7 points. I suggest 5.0.

Importantly, in the last 17 polls there is only a single one that shows Husted in the lead.

Ohio Senate Democrat Odds

• Polymarket: 69 percent
• Split Ticket: 71 percent
• Nate Silver Deluxe: 72.6 percent
• Nate Silver Classic: 70.2
• Nate Silver Lite: 76.0 percent
• Mish: 80 percent

I have seen enough. The Fox News poll, plus political suicidal attack ads, plus republican infighting that rates to discourage Republican turnout while encouraging female turnout are enough for me to up my Ohio forecast ahead of the pack.

Cook political says “The controversy could also create headaches for GOP candidates outside the governor’s race.“

I suggest Trump’s supporting Ramaswamy’s idiotic ad may have an impact beyond Ohio.

I see the three most likely pickup states are North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska, in that order. Democrats need just one more state to win the Senate if they hold Michigan.

I have Texas more likely than Maine now. The Fox News poll has Collins (R) and Jackson (D) tied at 49 percent each. Trafalgar also has the race tied.

I have been far more cautious on Maine than Nate Silver for months. The Fox News poll is another warning.

I put Democrat pickup odds of Maine no better than a 55 percent tilt, and Texas for Democrat Talarico at 62 percent.

If Republicans hold Iowa and Kansas (certainly not a given), Democrats need either Texas or Maine.

Adding things up, the overall odds of Democrats taking the Senate are about a 65 percent, no change for me.

The Fox News Ohio poll helped and the Fox News Maine poll hurt Democrat chances.

Reflections on Skew

Skew is not uniform. By that I mean it’s more likely Democrats win six or seven seats than only two.

Democrats can take the Senate with modest two-point polling errors by winning NC, OH, AK, and TX.

If a two-point error goes the other way, you are looking at Democrats picking up six or eight seats including Iowa and Kansas, with chances of Nebraska and South Carolina.

Will Kansas and Iowa Go the Same Direction?

My seat-of-the-pants idea is Kansas is a bit more likely than Iowa to flip (say 55 Kansas and 50 Iowa).

The betting markets do not agree, so this is a Mish audible. We will see.

For discussion, please see If the Polls Are Correct, Democrats Will Win the Kansas Senate Race

But with two near 50-50 flips any outcome is statistically equal.

Related Posts

October 21, 2026: Cook Political Reports Democrats Lead Senate Races in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa

We are nearing the “stick a fork in it” stage.

October 22, 2026: Ramaswamy’s Pedophile-Defending Ad in Ohio May Be the End of His Political Career

Even Ohio’s Republican Governor Blasts Ramaswamy.

October 23, 2026: Department of Justice Moves to Block Alaska Certification if Republican Loses

In a laughable lawsuit, Trump’s DOJ makes fools of themselves again.

October 23, 2026: Spotlight Iowa: The Self-Inflicted Damage by House Republicans Is Stunning

“Thank God you’re building the ballroom,” says rep. Joe Mitchell.

The cluelessness of Republicans in the waning moments of this election has been stunning.