This is the start of a live blog. Comments generally welcome. 
Note: I put new comments at the end.
Bloomberg comments and In concur “When Americans vote today, they’ll be delivering a verdict on a presidential comeback that brought them persistent inflation and an unwanted war against Iran that’s making affordability among the campaign’s top issues. Once the polls close, the country will soon shift focus to who follows Trump in 2028.”
Polls Close In Kentucky and Indiana.
The lead Image is from New York Times Live Blog.
That’s a free link.
My first comment is I expect the polls to be correct and Democrats will pick up at least 6 Senate seats.
Had I seen an AtlasIntel set of polls that were favorable to Democrats across the board including Iowa, I may have projected seven.
4:56 PM Mountain
Nate Silver Blog: What early results tell us in Kentucky
We had Trump +15 KY-06 as Lean Democratic in our model. Right now, the early results are not great for Republicans — Republican Ralph Alvarado is considerably underperforming even the Senate nominee Andy Barr. We’ll see how it goes as more votes come in, but the early results say that a flip is certainly on the table right now.
5:00 PM Mountain
Blame Game
I suggest 100 percent of the blame goes to Trump. Blaming Thune is idiocy.
5:08 PM Mountain
Via Nate Silver: The NYT has called the race out of the gate for him. Not much of a need to update here as he was 99.7 for re-election in FLIPR. 1/1 so far LOL.
5:12 PM Mountain
Interesting results in Kentucky
5:15 PM Mountain
NBC: Ossoff winning 58% of independents, 13% of Trump voters
CNN: Ossoff winning 20% of non-MAGA Republicans
Hello Miami
Don’t get excited by this yet. It’s encouraging but very early
Nate Silver: We should remind people, though, that there’s likely at least some Blue Mirage in Florida, because it generally reports its early votes first, whereas the Election Day vote was much redder. It’s interesting though that there’s only a 2-point gap between Jolly and Nixon right now.
5:20 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: FL-09, a redrawn seat, has Democratic incumbent Darren Soto in a tight race to win re-election.
After redistricting, the new seat voted heavily for Trump, but Darren Soto is winning Puerto Rican-heavy Osceola County by 28, and is holding his own in Indian River County. This will be a race to watch.
5:22 PM Mountain
Georgia Senate Called for Democrat Ossoff
As Expected
Florida Pasco County
Again this is early. But wow.
5:22 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: Yeah, no results reported from South Carolina yet, but once it gets started it tends to be fairly quick. We rate each state from 1 (slow) to 5 (fast) and we classify SC as a 4, so on the faster side.
Silver Blog: Georgia gubernatorial Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms seems to only be underrunning Jon Ossoff in his Senate race by around 4.
If this keeps up, Georgia might get its first Democratic governor in 24 years.
Silver Blog: I’m waiting for South Carolina governor not because I think Democrat Jermaine Johnson has a real shot, but because if Alan Wilson wins by less than 6 points that means polls underestimated Democrats strongly in what should have been an R+10 race (at least).
Results should start trickling in soon. Polls closed at 7PM.
5:22 PM Mountain
This would be a real shocker
5:35 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: Georgia on my mind
Among my friends and colleagues, the Georgia governor’s race has been discussed mostly in terms of the implications for John Ossoff’s 2028 presidential prospects.
Keisha Lance Bottoms now seems like the clear favorite to win there, and if she does that will mean Ossoff can run for president without spotting Republicans a Senate seat. But it’s worth also paying attention to the other stakes in this race. Georgia is the third-largest (after Texas and Florida) state to have refused Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion, and with a Democratic governor (and presumably some pickups in the state legislature) they might change their mind on this.
Georgia is also a state that did *not* comply with Donald Trump’s request to engage in mid-census redistricting and with Bottoms in the governor’s mansion that won’t change.
5:35 PM Mountain
Silver Blog:
We’ve got two House flips in deep-red seats brewing already in Trump +17 IN-05 and Trump +15 KY-06, and some more Democratic overperformances in FL-22 and FL-09. Early results, but this is not consistent with a universe where polling massively undershoots Republicans.
Mish: This is early but fingers crossed
5:52 PM Mountain
Totally on the Wild Side
I had this as a 40 percent chance. Way more than anyone else I am aware of.
Georgia Senate Called
6:00 PM Mountain
What Could Be Better?
SC Update
Texas Fireworks!
6:17 PM Mountain
South Carolina Update
6:23PM Mountain
Loving This!
North Carolina Called
6:23PM Mountain
This was a given
Victory in FL-14 as called in this corner
Probability of Sweep 91 Percent
South Carolina Projected for Democrats!
6:46 PM Mountain
I am very pleased to report that idiot Darline Graham is blowing up.
Democrats Will Win Ohio
7:01 PM Mountain
7:10 PM Mountain
NBC News calls GA-Gov for Keisha Lance Bottoms
Silver Blog: Vivek Ramaswamy is getting cooked
Not that it should be a surprise, but Vivek Ramaswamy is getting absolutely clattered in Trump +11 Ohio, after seeing his campaign implode following one of the most disgusting advertisements any politician has ever aired. I won’t go into the details again for everyone here, but forget ideology and forget party for a minute — it’s good when people who do things like that get punished by the electorate.
Silver Blog: The night is young, but it’s a bloodbath
This is an absolute massacre for Republicans. It might be the worst environment seen in the last 40+ years. They’re losing South Carolina, on track to lose Texas, and are getting the rug pulled out from under them with Hispanics and working-class whites. At this point, they need to pray Hinson hangs on when polls close, or they could be looking at a 55-seat Democratic Senate.
I am going to take a break here for a bit to grab a bite to eat, but this is over.
7:38 PM Mountain
It’s over. Texas and Kansas are flipping.
Now I am wondering what’s next.
Silver Blog: Checking in on the House
The Needle projects 244 House seats for Dems, which would be close to FLIPR Deluxe’s prediction of 241.
Please Recall the Mish Projection of 243
Update: Nate Silver I should note that the Needle projection on D House seats is now up to 246. And prediction markets put the over/under at around 257. It’s possible that the Needle is a bit too conservative in cases where the wave becomes clear this early.
Calling Elon Musk
8:01 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: The last time Elon Musk tweeted was 5 hours ago, wonder what he’s up to… For reference, he spent $474 million to support Republicans this cycle (making him the largest individual political donor).
Note: When I say “Silver Blog” it is someone other than Nate Silver.
When I say “Nate Silver” the comment was by him
Texas Wow
8:02 PM Mountain
This was not on my radar
Silber Blog: Democrats are about to sweep the statewide offices in Texas, and they may also win the Texas State House as things stand. Incredible night
Silver Blog: On Iowa — Josh Turek looking like the clear favorite against Ashley Hinson, which would take Democrats to 55 seats when the dust settles (edit: IF Peltola wins in Alaska, which…we’ll see soon enough! She’s favored based on these results.)
Not Understanding the Message
8:14 PM Mountain
8:54 PM Mountain
Texas Senate Projected for Democrats
Ossoff Message
Trump Con Job
9:00 PM Mountain
Democrats Projected to Win Every Statewide Seat!
Texas May Go Blue – Everywhere
9:02 PM Mountain
Did Money Hurt?
9:12 PM Mountain
Texas Flips Governor
9:14 PM Mountain
It’s the first time a Democrat has won the governorship in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990…
…36 YEARS AGO!!!!!
Georgia Secretary of State
9:51 PM Mountain
The AP has called the Georgia secretary of state election for Penny Brown Reynolds (D). A Democrat will oversee the 2028 presidential election in this crucial swing state.
Wild Results in Mississippi
9:54 PM Mountain
Oh-07
Who gets the blame?
9:59 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: I’ve been monitoring conservative spaces on social media, and while some large-scale influencers are trying to deflect the blame away from Trump, the rank and file accounts on conservative subreddits and Twitter are directing their anger at Trump. It feels like the beginning of a preference cascade on the right where the floodgates are finally opening.
Kansas
10:01 PM Mountain
A bit late on reporting this
Nate Silver: NYT calls Kansas for Hamilton
So that’s a minimum of 5 D pickups. Land doesn’t vote, but with Democrats winning in some of these bigger states, it makes for an impressive-looking map.
Key Point on Democrat Governors and Progressives
10:11 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: AP/NYT have called OH-Gov for Acton, too. Add that to the wins in Georgia and Texas, and a huge share of the population, maybe 70 percent, are going to live in states with Democratic governors.
Nate Silver Blog: Looking at Democrats doing better in North Carolina, Georgia, and even Texas than in traditionally much bluer states like Minnesota and Michigan is a reminder that candidate quality matters a lot. Flanagan and El-Sayed both winning comfortably in the scheme of things, but decidedly weaker than candidates who don’t have their left-factionalist branding.
A Fetterman-Proof Majority
10:23 PM Mountain
Totally Wild
Democrats Ahead in Mississippi
11:12 PM Mountain
If my understanding where the remaining votes are is correct Democrats will flip Mississippi
First Full Dummymander
1:06 AM Mountain
Silver Blog: North Carolina Democrats run riot
North Carolina Democrats have absolutely torched the GOP. They’ll end up 1 seat short of a State House supermajority that was a very real, live ball earlier in the night. They’ll also win a majority of the House seats on that map, yielding our first full dummymander of the cycle. They’ll simultaneously somehow fall just short in the State Senate.
Nate Silver: As well as Democrats have done, how many dummymanders are we going to get? TN-4 sort of counts, I think? Florida had the most potential for one, but (as always, basically) it was the relatively strongest state for Republicans. In NC-3, Republican Greg Murphy is only ahead by a tenth of a point, although the NYT Needle seems fairly confident he’ll hold on.
Mish Waiting
1:08 AM Mountain
Waiting for Alaska and Mississippi
Silver Blog: One Mississippi note (with caveats that this is from Ballotpedia and I’m not a legal expert): Mississippi doesn’t require automatic recounts in close elections, nor can candidates request a recount. So a recount would probably require some kind of lawsuit.
TN-04 Shocker
1:10 AM Mountain
OH-10
TN-04: MAJOR UPSET ALERT
1:19 AM Mountain
Silver Blog: According to the Tennessee Secretary of State’s results, with everything unofficially counted and reporting, incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais — a scandal-plagued incumbent whose win probability was 99.5% in Silver Bulletin’s model (and 99.7% in ours, which literally rounded up to 100% in datawrapper) — may have just lost in the redistricted, Trump +24 TN-04. Holy cow. This is potentially the single biggest upset I’ve seen in my life.
Misplaced Brains
1:28 AM Mountain
Mississippi Senate
1:44 AM Mountain
Congrats re: your amazingly accurate predictions. As a foreigner I can’t comment too much on US elections though, other than to say that your new US Senator for South Carolina is MUCH better-looking than the average US Senator!
Nice work, Mish, i really appreciate all of your coverage and insights!
It only took Americans 10 years to figure out Trump is a stupid, corrupt, felon and even then huge swaths of Americans are not yet convinced. Hopefully it is not too late to save the country.
So if the last election was against Kamala, this one was against Trump.Next one against whom?
Champion several to half a dozen of the worst democratic party policies. No way they restrain themselves for two years.
NBC estimates 255 seats in the house, a 75 seat majority … Wow.
Can you give us a definition for “global equity crash” from your fractal whatever theory (sic)?
Because the stock market did not crash yesterday, after your forecast from Monday.
Thanks in advance
Current fractal model: From the 30 Mar 2026 low and 29 July 2026 low, the SPX completed a final lower high on 21 October 2026 in a maximum x/2.5x/2.5x fractal growth fashion: 25/60/60 days and 10-11/26/26 days, respectively. From that terminal 21 Oct lower high(all time high 6 Oct) a 3/6/7-8 day :: y/2y/2-2.5y crash decay fractal is predicted with an initial crash nadir on 9-10 Nov. Gold and Bitcoin will also reach interim crash nadirs on that date.
So that’s a NO, you can’t explain what a “crash” is? At least according to your model’s forecasting accuracy
Equities up 1,000 points today so far.
Odd kind of “crash”.
House 224 D & Senate 54 D. Majority in both.
How is it that Iowa farmers/ranchers figured out Trump cornholed them, and Texas famers/ranchers have no clue who stuck it up their asses? It’s looking like a Democrat hippie rancher who used to teach kindergarten may become the next Texas Ag Commissioner. Maybe he can explain it to them with simple words and pictures. Used to teach kindergarten. I say that and cannot stop laughing. Texas has mostly been run by ultra conservatives since the Alamo: almost 200 years of conservative dictatorship.
What? Ann Richard. LBJ. Texas was democrat for years.
The vast majority of Texas Democratic state office holders in the history of Texas were conservative to ultra conservative Democrats. Richards never would have won her single term as Governor if not for Clayton William’s rape joke, which tanked him.She lost her race for a 2nd term to W. Post Civil War, a large number of Texas Democrat office holders, state and local level, were members of the KKK. LBJ never held a state office.
I dunno, there were a lot of New Deal democrats from Texas. Wright Pattman comes immediately to mind. Later, LBJ.
modern TX repugs are NOT conservative. they are radical right wing christian nut jobs.
RIP MAGA. Welcome back America.
Impressive confidence Mish, well done.
Rest In Putrefaction MAGA
Thanks!
The Democrats will raise taxes
+15 to +20% across the Board.
Hope you enjoy, lowering your standard of living
Significantly….
Trump’s tariffs represent a huge tax increase.
Voluntary war of aggression in Iran HUUUUUGGEE tax.
Michigan Senate is going to the Ds. Do the math. Wayne county is a 1/3 in so Abdul’s vote will grow immensely from here. But MAGA is not good at math so they will be surprised.
Do they still have The Wayne Fontes Landfill over there?
I’d like to say I called SC first. Carpet bagging Darlene must be packing her bags, and not soon enough!
What I did not expect was the massive margin. SC is now very possibly a battleground state. I’m glad to see the democrats will stop off here early.
People finally figured out her brother was gay.
Also, great call on declaring early and often that the MAGA redistricting play might actually bite them. Holy dog crap batman! TX may not flip any of the redistricted districts as of now! And outside of TN, not much else is working for them, while CA and UT flips are looking good for the Ds. Also FL looks like a dud for the MAGA party.
Thanks!
I just hope that the Democrats can be smart this time, strengthen democracy, end or at least call a truce to these culture wars, try to make government work better, and let the people heal.
Hating your neighbor makes the country weaker, respecting them makes the country stronger.
Sadly, maggots would have to stop being racist religio-fascists too. Not much chance of that happening.
A Scary Enemy is always a necessity.
1. To justify why we can’t have nice things. Healthcare? Infrastructure? Education? We don’t have time for that now, don’t you know we gotta fight Saddam/Milosevic/Bin Laden/Saddam again/Ghadaffi/Assad/ISIS/Putin/Hamas/Houthis/ad nauseam.
2. To give the rubes a cause to rally around, rather than ask awkward questions.
3. To unify political factions around a common enemy, justify the division of spoils and explain why we can’t have nirvana right at the moment, we’d really like to but the Scary Enemy is stopping us and don’t you know we gotta focus on this fight, right now!
4. To justify crackdowns on civil liberties. You and your namby-pamby Bill of Rights, you hate our freedom! What, are you on the side of the fascists/communists/Islamicists/Russians/ ad nauseam?
Fearing impeachment, President Donald J. Trump declares martial law and announces himself as the “First and Forever Supreme Leader of the Empire of the United States. The U.S. Military revolts en masse and the president is arrested and tried by a military tribunal for treason, and receives a life sentence to a mental hospital for the criminally insane. Thank you for your attention to this very important matter.
Why would he fear impeachment? He’s had more experience with it than any human.
While the Iranians are celebrating with smug satisfaction the Democrats’ historic midterm blue tsunami in the US midterm elections, Russia’s leadership is reacting very differently.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on Wednesday bluntly stated that that leaders in the US Democratic Party have a “sharply negative” approach to relations with Moscow.
Democrats have 51 senators, so far.
Now is the chance for Libertarians and Greens to get motivated for the next cycle to fill the bomb holes the Republicans are crawling out of.
Democrat Josh Turek just won Iowa senate seat. STOMPGASM!
Democrat Rob Sand just won Iowa governor. Another massive stompgasm!
Great job Mish. Unbelievable, but looking like your +7 or +8 might be conservative???? Not a ding on you but I couldn’t believe that KS and SC could flip along with the rest. Amazing.
Where are the MAGA apologists now?
Also KS and SC are extra sweet bc the R candidates there were absolute DOGS.
Thanks
I got IA wrong but I would not had I seen the Final AtlasIntel poll
I was way higher than anyone I know on SC at 40%
I was way early – OCT 5 – and calling Kansas
thank you mish for your ongoing sage analysis of the times we live in
I called more wins than Mish – because I relied entirely on my feelings.
Your basic analysis early this year of how sentiment would turn proved to be spot on. Nice job!
Well done Mish. You called it correctly.
Trump’s “Politics of Hate” is currently backfiring on Republicans. Which is great to see. One can only hope that Civility will make a comeback. Lord knows America needs more Civility.
Well, I won all of my bets tonight, including blue tsunami.
“If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed…….and we will deserve it.”
Lindsay Graham, 2016
(and now, even Darlene won’t be able to save them)
A momentary lapse of honesty. Graham went back to his programming almost immediately.
To be fair, Graham was terrified that Trump might end the stupid wars, that peace might break out at any moment.
Luckily for him, Trump proved weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
what is trump reaction? land invasion of Persia. cuba invasion. nuke russia ? stay tuned fellow citizens of pax dumbfuckistan and the lands they occupy and bomb………..
Hamilton just won Kansas.
“BREAKING: DEMOCRATS WIN TEXAS SENATE SEAT!
DEMOCRATS ARE SET TO SWEEP EVERY SINGLE STATEWIDE SEAT IN THE LONE STAR STATE!”
And this is why we come to Mishtalk. You are vindicated Mish! Well done! Another fabulous stompgasm!
Thanks!
Had I seen that AtlasIntel poll series before I made my final senate call I would have call Iowa correctly
3-star Mishelin award granted for excellent analysis and analytics.
yea. great calls mish. i honestly did NOT believe it. very glad though.
You did much better than most pundits.
Hats off.
Unbelievable! Trump primaries a solid, senior GOP Senator Cornyn.
And now Texas has a millennial Democratic senator!
he’ll live to 100 and be senator still. like strom was when i lived in SC
As a close follower of all the markets that count, refined oil products, yield curves, Credit spreads, etc etc….
This is not even remotely surprising. A 100% Anti-vote…..does anyone ever vote FOR anyone anymore?
nothing new old sport. it’s a rough sport. not like ball games.
Many of us voted for decency, sanity and competence.
I think a lot of people voted for Talarico. He seems to have energized many new voters there. Likewise for Ossoff, Hamilton and Cooper at least.
Food for thought: If Hinojosa and Talarico win in Texas, it may crash the AI driven market as they are against data center builds in the state. It’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts in the am.
Stock market futures all red. Remember guys, profits over politics! Got PUTS?
https://www.cnbc.com/
No “if,” both have won.
All that gerrymandering and it came back to haunt Trump and Abbott.
“The ironing is delicious.” -Bart Simpson.
already was pounding them earlier……..i love it. short them………bubble burst. chinese AI will win the day, no doubt.
It is worth it! I would like to see the look on Trumps face tonight. I am sure he will posting his bull shit on Truth Social well into morning. Let the blame games begin!
Mike Rogers’ closing argument in an interview with Fox’s Bret Baier was that El Sayed was bad for Israel. What a dipshit. He’s running to represent Michigan not Israel.
Vivek defeated! A glorious day today! Another stompgasm! Need more tissues!
vivek was a wannabe donald grifter. he just didn’t have the gift of gab. run of the mill tech bro scammer.
Americans have rejected whatever it is Trump is trying to do. I’d expect a Democrat president in 2028 as well.
Take it to the bank.
Anyone else having massive Trump/GOP stompgasms tonight? I just heard Lindsey Graham scream from hell when sis lost. Lol!
By the way, where is that clown Stu tonight? he predicted a red wave, lol.
lol
This is just the appetizer for 2028, that’s when the real payback happens. But this will suffice nicely for now.
I am flipping from Fox News and CNN. Sean Hannity was practically in tears whining about all the “good” Trump has done for America. Lol. CNN is gloating and giddy.
you are brave. the idiot box makes me want to ram my head into wall.
Dan Crenshaw had a complete meldown in BBC’s studio coverage. They had to shut him up by going to a different desk for reporting on the election.
I find the loss of Lindsey Graham’s sister to be particularly apt. It shows that even the MAGA crowd can wizen up and say “No, you won’t ram anyone you want down our throats just because she will act as your lackey.” Just one of several Trump hand-picked implosions. As for GOP stompgasms, you know if you go back 40 years (Reagan, Bush 41), the Republican party was reasonable IMHO. I wonder if the party can find its way back, or if MAGA has destroyed it permanently.
Don’t give maggots any credit. That Graham c*** still got 47% of the vote. The racists came out in force for her. They’re gonna need to form a new party though, the current one is DEAD.
A good night for democracy in the US, even if the edgelords and Soviet dead enders won’t admit it 😁 Of course, it’s sad we needed an open book test like this before we could get it right.
Democracy ? How’s that ?
“Soviet dead ender” here. (Actually the Soviet Union ceased to exist 35 years ago.) I voted for our democrat senate candidate and I’m quite enjoying seeing Trump get bitchslapped. Lindsey Graham’s sister losing was a bonus. He’s looking up dismayed that he can’t help ensure that the “last Ukrainian” dies to weaken Russia.
When did you become a bircher?
Texas is electing a Hispanic woman as governor tonight along with a Democratic senator. Maybe women and Hispanics recognized how fucking dangerous white “Christian” men are with State power. May the new legislature overturn every last vestige of the deposed fascist regime.
Texas finally turned blue thanks to Trump. Even Kansas seems to be electing democrat Hamilton tonight. Bye bye boomer Abbott, find a good nursing home and die.
The Orange Retard primaried Cornyn. Turned an 80% R to a 60% D. Never interrupt your opponent when he’s making a mistake indeed. Abbott going down with the sinking ship is so fucking glorious. Maybe women and.minorities will have rights in Texas again soon.
Not only that, S. Carolina. Trump really screwed the pooch, he managed to turn the Deep South blue. Praise God we don’t have another war whore in the Senate.
Well we have another 2-star Mishelin award for comment tonight.
Lindsay Graham dying AND losing his Senate seat is chef’s kiss. The Republican Party died 12 years ago, its zombie corpse is being incinerated tonight. The Orange Fucktard’s greatest gift to America.
As usual, Don will walk away from a car crash he caused with minimal consequences … in his mind, he’s still the greatest Prez evah, and this is all the fault of those lazy, worthless candidates he chose. And besides, he wasn’t on the ballot!
He can’t walk away from 2 continuous years of upcoming investigations, having every appointee impeached, having ZERO chance of legislation passing or judges appointed, and quite possibly the leaders of the world interpreting tonight’s landslide as an invitation to unite against the USG.
The Democrats winning majorities is a classic pyrrhic victory. They are every bit as bad (in different ways) than the Republicans. Yes, there’s the whole schadenfreude thing of ‘getting Trump”, but that will wear off quickly.
We’ll be overwhelmed by woke politics, crazed environmental laws and possibly an expansion of the Iran war. The democrats are true believers when it comes to Israel, so I can easily imagine the Iran war continuing. Most of our leaders are sociopaths. Haley Stevens flip to endorse a Republican shows you that they are all for sale to the highest bidder.
Nothing will change for the American people. Expect more war and more inflation.
Damn those 🍇 are sour
Where is Business Man or Arthur Orwell? 😂
I’m always, always proud of my country but extra proud tonight.
You mean “Arthur” from “Australia?” Well it’s 3 in the afternoon in Sydney so he must be awake unless he’s not really in Australia and Arthur really isn’t his name. It is 8 am in Russia though, maybe after breakfast we’ll get a comment.
Well said although the D-party died tonight too; it’s the Lefitst party now.
Not sure where Israel will stand.
Mostly gridlock and posturing next 2 years.
Presidential primary race starts tomorrow!
Israel needs to go under the bus.
the democrats are far from a leftist party.
Cry harder.
The Boomer stranglehold on poilitics is ending tonight. Good fucking riddance.
You get a 2-star Mishelin award for astute comment of the evening!
My first!
Yes, the younger gens are making themselves known. Good!
US-global trade relations and Trump’s tariffs, on one hand, and the Iran war on the other, have a deep common element. These were both “gray rhinos” as they are called, very long term issues that emerged over several decades. Critically, Trump mistook them, or else misrepresented them, to be imminent dire emergencies requiring immediate lurching disruptive action on a grand, global scale. This proved to be his legal pretext for power and action too. These were fateful, historical-scale errors that will harm the USA (and surface as prolonged inflation: taxing mainly those of modest wealth and income). They are conclusive evidence that Trump is delusional and tragically ridiculous, and betrays his minions, either stupidly or sociopathically (or both). That’s what this “big referendum” is, or should be, about.
Sadly, such “gray rhinos” (as with immigration) are precisely what a functioning Congress should decide, as the voice of the people. Congress’s miserable failure there, feeds into impulsive, lurching characters like Trump, and whatever his leftish mirror image is.
Seeing Mish – a reasonable human being whom I broadly disagree with politically – rooting for the nominally progressive wing of American politics…
What’s this warm and fuzzy feeling I have?
A touch of joy and happiness I think. It’s like when you see real Americans compromise and move on with their lives. Don’t take it away from me, I know less than I want will get accomplished. For tonight though, all you insane MAGA clowns and “both sides are the same” edgelords can suck it.
Any Econ blog is perennially doom and gloom. Tonight should prove otherwise, cheers
Hear hear
Mish is a bright lucid fellow who’s been hornswoggled by the MSM into TDS and thinking the alternative is manageable/preferred.
I know many of them….
Trumps no saint but really…Biden, Harris, Obama??? Talarico?? wow….
Nah, you have Trump Worship Syndrome. Just about any of those names you listed wouldn’t have :
Gotten the US involved in a pointless war
Started a trade war with Canada
Outsourced US foreign policy to Putin and Netanyahu
Put pardons up for sale to the highest bidder
Gin up DoJ prosecutions against dozens of his political opponents
Unleashed ICE in an illegal fashion causing Americans to lose their lives
Began illegal, extra-judicial attacks in international waters against purported drug-runners
Etc.
One more asinine comment like that and you are banned.
And show some humility on your idiotic projection of +2 after votes started coming in.
Normally I ban people of saying I have TDS.
Here’s the deal you have TDS.
I will let it slide so people can se what an idiot you are.
I am not rooting for Progressives in a meaningful way.
I want MAGA to get smashed to obliteration,
There is a huge difference.
THIS
No of course! Wouldn’t accuse you of that. More in the way of enemy if my enemy is my friend. Or rooting for another team to beat your team’s rival.
Just applauding your deference to sanity, and marveling at how gross the GOP is to get a libertarian who moved from Illinois to Utah (!) to celebrate demise of the “conservative” administration.
If anything, your comment is telling of the American public – Ds should not mistake the repudiation of MAGA tonight as a signal of the country necessarily moving “left” as much as moving on.
It’s the fact that you and I, real Americans, not robots or shills, who nominally wouldn’t agree much politically, can put aside differences and ultimately compromise in “not MAGA for the love of god”
Gives me real hope. For real!
“obliteration” .. yes, interesting … wish I had a good anecdote from the French Revolution…
Ignorant me sees Progressives (aka Leftists) and MAGA as the only two sides of the coin. I feel the Rs and Ds are gone except in name.
Poorly paraphrasing Getty Lee, you can chose not to root for the progressives but you still have made a choice.
Yes, I am out of touch and have lost … as has the country. I’ll count on Rubio for 2028. Even Florida was a thin win for Senate.
Fun comments… like 10 years ago on Reddit.
I’ll say adieu and enjoy gridlock until 2028.
Bye Felicia
Reporting from the Russian bot farm in St. Petersburg is nonametoday. How is Vladimir doing today?
Oh FFS. America is perfectly capable of producing idiocy internally.
My predict: Dems gain 2-3 Senate seats and of course the House as is wont in mid-terms.
Only me and polymarket have to square on this. You, your reputation is at stake.
Sanity prevails in the US. Polls are wrong again as when MAGA started in 2016.
You heard it here: “there’s a human element to politics”:
As discuss on leftist Colbart show:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GUvmvsKZII&t=83s
+8 more likely than +2
I like your (and poly’s) thinking … stack them odds and mo’ money for me!
Tomorrow you’re going to learn that stupid hurts.
Can we get an update on this sweetie?
Why bother with this dumb shit though, really? Day late and a dollar short. Looks like Mish’s reputation is safe.
I can hardly wait until all those data centers are completed. AI will know how we’re going to vote before we do and cast our votes for us.
No need to wait for data centers, do you have homeless centers? .. they’ll typically cast 1000+ votes per address.
LA mayor race is great power competition between Homeless and Unions!
https://nypost.com/2026/06/09/us-news/thousands-of-homeless-la-voters-registered-at-shelters-without-beds-including-one-linked-to-raman/
The only thing about today’s elections that is almost a certainty is that taco will do his best to overturn the results, if he doesn’t like them.
No. What is certain is FDT will blame everyone but himself and all of us will learn a little more about the psychology of a narcissist that may be helpful in the future in our own lives.
Shocker, the senile old boomer establishment position of high house prices and supressed wages isn’t popular. Shocker. But it’s the polar opposite of what Trump promised. This is more a referndum on how quickly the electorate see the truth.
Sad asking price is $200K for the house and Black Rock or similar offers you $225K to close the deal.
“persistent inflation”?? … agree, it’s higher than desired but that’s a MSM quote.
The actual story is REAL GDP growth at 3.4% past Q!
Yes, gains are accruing to the well positioned by brains, luck or cheating. And I don’t cheat.
I know … so many people get tired of all the WINNING!
The votes will tell us precisely how tired or otherwise they are. I think they will go more on their personal economic comfort or discomfort, than MSM or statistical numerical displays of some overall abstract of the economy. As they should.
That is acceptable. After all eggs are cheaper.
Just don’t eat out often nor use ImmigrantDash. (no disrespect intended)
Ya, it’s all good if you’re happy to live under a rock.
Of course, asset inflation (not in CPI) is massive thanks to fiat printing.
More IPOs quinces quenches equity demand; so will revert soon.
Housing demand … uh, try Austin or Houston or Fresno?
Land in desirable place? Nope, can’t make more of that.
Is there a Ukrainian drone out there with nothing to do?
The MSM is blasting about glitches everywhere. Michigan had one incident. Trump will use anything to claim it was stolen or just declare a national emergency.
My question is, what grasp does he have on reality?
Yes, Trump’s a loser.
Biden (minor incursion) or Kam (unburdened) were much more in touch with world events and how to weld power for the benefit of the USA, USA, USA, USA, ….
There will be a lot of kvetching around the margins. This will be a nice springboard for anyone of any persuasion who wants to hysterically denounce what is happening.
Do you grasp what’s happened in Alaska?
Nothing has happened yet but I’m looking forward to a democratic victory, although it will take a long time to sort out all the lawsuits and appeals.
Uh, can you say, “fraudulent candidate”?
(obvious but not yet proven … bank accounts will tell a story)