This is the start of a live blog. Comments generally welcome. 
Note: I put new comments at the end.
Bloomberg comments and In concur “When Americans vote today, they’ll be delivering a verdict on a presidential comeback that brought them persistent inflation and an unwanted war against Iran that’s making affordability among the campaign’s top issues. Once the polls close, the country will soon shift focus to who follows Trump in 2028.”
Polls Close In Kentucky and Indiana.
The lead Image is from New York Times Live Blog.
That’s a free link.
My first comment is I expect the polls to be correct and Democrats will pick up at least 6 Senate seats.
Had I seen an AtlasIntel set of polls that were favorable to Democrats across the board including Iowa, I may have projected seven.
4:56 PM Mountain
Nate Silver Blog: What early results tell us in Kentucky
We had Trump +15 KY-06 as Lean Democratic in our model. Right now, the early results are not great for Republicans — Republican Ralph Alvarado is considerably underperforming even the Senate nominee Andy Barr. We’ll see how it goes as more votes come in, but the early results say that a flip is certainly on the table right now.
5:00 PM Mountain
Blame Game
I suggest 100 percent of the blame goes to Trump. Blaming Thune is idiocy.
5:08 PM Mountain
Via Nate Silver: The NYT has called the race out of the gate for him. Not much of a need to update here as he was 99.7 for re-election in FLIPR. 1/1 so far LOL.
5:12 PM Mountain
Interesting results in Kentucky
5:15 PM Mountain
NBC: Ossoff winning 58% of independents, 13% of Trump voters
CNN: Ossoff winning 20% of non-MAGA Republicans
Hello Miami
Don’t get excited by this yet. It’s encouraging but very early
Nate Silver: We should remind people, though, that there’s likely at least some Blue Mirage in Florida, because it generally reports its early votes first, whereas the Election Day vote was much redder. It’s interesting though that there’s only a 2-point gap between Jolly and Nixon right now.
5:20 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: FL-09, a redrawn seat, has Democratic incumbent Darren Soto in a tight race to win re-election.
After redistricting, the new seat voted heavily for Trump, but Darren Soto is winning Puerto Rican-heavy Osceola County by 28, and is holding his own in Indian River County. This will be a race to watch.
5:22 PM Mountain
Georgia Senate Called for Democrat Ossoff
As Expected
Florida Pasco County
Again this is early. But wow.
5:22 PM Mountain
Nate Silver: Yeah, no results reported from South Carolina yet, but once it gets started it tends to be fairly quick. We rate each state from 1 (slow) to 5 (fast) and we classify SC as a 4, so on the faster side.
Silver Blog: Georgia gubernatorial Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms seems to only be underrunning Jon Ossoff in his Senate race by around 4.
If this keeps up, Georgia might get its first Democratic governor in 24 years.
Silver Blog: I’m waiting for South Carolina governor not because I think Democrat Jermaine Johnson has a real shot, but because if Alan Wilson wins by less than 6 points that means polls underestimated Democrats strongly in what should have been an R+10 race (at least).
Results should start trickling in soon. Polls closed at 7PM.
5:22 PM Mountain
This would be a real shocker
5:35 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: Georgia on my mind
Among my friends and colleagues, the Georgia governor’s race has been discussed mostly in terms of the implications for John Ossoff’s 2028 presidential prospects.
Keisha Lance Bottoms now seems like the clear favorite to win there, and if she does that will mean Ossoff can run for president without spotting Republicans a Senate seat. But it’s worth also paying attention to the other stakes in this race. Georgia is the third-largest (after Texas and Florida) state to have refused Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion, and with a Democratic governor (and presumably some pickups in the state legislature) they might change their mind on this.
Georgia is also a state that did *not* comply with Donald Trump’s request to engage in mid-census redistricting and with Bottoms in the governor’s mansion that won’t change.
5:35 PM Mountain
Silver Blog:
We’ve got two House flips in deep-red seats brewing already in Trump +17 IN-05 and Trump +15 KY-06, and some more Democratic overperformances in FL-22 and FL-09. Early results, but this is not consistent with a universe where polling massively undershoots Republicans.
Mish: This is early but fingers crossed
5:52 PM Mountain
Totally on the Wild Side
I had this as a 40 percent chance. Way more than anyone else I am aware of.
Georgia Senate Called
6:00 PM Mountain
What Could Be Better?
SC Update
Texas Fireworks!
6:17 PM Mountain
South Carolina Update
6:23PM Mountain
Loving This!
North Carolina Called
6:23PM Mountain
This was a given
Victory in FL-14 as called in this corner
Probability of Sweep 91 Percent
South Carolina Projected for Democrats!
6:46 PM Mountain
I am very pleased to report that idiot Darline Graham is blowing up.
Democrats Will Win Ohio
7:01 PM Mountain
7:10 PM Mountain
NBC News calls GA-Gov for Keisha Lance Bottoms
Silver Blog: Vivek Ramaswamy is getting cooked
Not that it should be a surprise, but Vivek Ramaswamy is getting absolutely clattered in Trump +11 Ohio, after seeing his campaign implode following one of the most disgusting advertisements any politician has ever aired. I won’t go into the details again for everyone here, but forget ideology and forget party for a minute — it’s good when people who do things like that get punished by the electorate.
Silver Blog: The night is young, but it’s a bloodbath
This is an absolute massacre for Republicans. It might be the worst environment seen in the last 40+ years. They’re losing South Carolina, on track to lose Texas, and are getting the rug pulled out from under them with Hispanics and working-class whites. At this point, they need to pray Hinson hangs on when polls close, or they could be looking at a 55-seat Democratic Senate.
I am going to take a break here for a bit to grab a bite to eat, but this is over.
7:38 PM Mountain
It’s over. Texas and Kansas are flipping.
Now I am wondering what’s next.
Silver Blog: Checking in on the House
The Needle projects 244 House seats for Dems, which would be close to FLIPR Deluxe’s prediction of 241.
Please Recall the Mish Projection of 243
Update: Nate Silver I should note that the Needle projection on D House seats is now up to 246. And prediction markets put the over/under at around 257. It’s possible that the Needle is a bit too conservative in cases where the wave becomes clear this early.
Calling Elon Musk
8:01 PM Mountain
Silver Blog: The last time Elon Musk tweeted was 5 hours ago, wonder what he’s up to… For reference, he spent $474 million to support Republicans this cycle (making him the largest individual political donor).
Note: When I say “Silver Blog” it is someone other than Nate Silver.
When I say “Nate Silver” the comment was by him
Texas Wow
8:02 PM Mountain
This was not on my radar
Silber Blog: Democrats are about to sweep the statewide offices in Texas, and they may also win the Texas State House as things stand. Incredible night
Silver Blog: On Iowa — Josh Turek looking like the clear favorite against Ashley Hinson, which would take Democrats to 55 seats when the dust settles (edit: IF Peltola wins in Alaska, which…we’ll see soon enough! She’s favored based on these results.)
Texas is electing a Hispanic woman as governor tonight along with a Democratic senator. Maybe women and Hispanics recognized how fucking dangerous white “Christian” men are with State power. May the new legislature overturn every last vestige of the deposed fascist regime.
Lindsay Graham dying AND losing his Senate seat is chef’s kiss. The Republican Party died 12 years ago, its zombie corpse is being incinerated tonight. The Orange Fucktard’s greatest gift to America.
The Democrats winning majorities is a classic pyrrhic victory. They are every bit as bad (in different ways) than the Republicans. Yes, there’s the whole schadenfreude thing of ‘getting Trump”, but that will wear off quickly.
We’ll be overwhelmed by woke politics, crazed environmental laws and possibly an expansion of the Iran war. The democrats are true believers when it comes to Israel, so I can easily imagine the Iran war continuing. Most of our leaders are sociopaths. Haley Stevens flip to endorse a Republican shows you that they are all for sale to the highest bidder.
Nothing will change for the American people. Expect more war and more inflation.
The Boomer stranglehold on poilitics is ending tonight. Good fucking riddance.
US-global trade relations and Trump’s tariffs, on one hand, and the Iran war on the other, have a deep common element. These were both “gray rhinos” as they are called, very long term issues that emerged over several decades. Critically, Trump mistook them, or else misrepresented them, to be imminent dire emergencies requiring immediate lurching disruptive action on a grand, global scale. This proved to be his legal pretext for power and action too. These were fateful, historical-scale errors that will harm the USA (and surface as prolonged inflation: taxing mainly those of modest wealth and income). They are conclusive evidence that Trump is delusional and tragically ridiculous, and betrays his minions, either stupidly or sociopathically (or both). That’s what this “big referendum” is, or should be, about.
Sadly, such “gray rhinos” (as with immigration) are precisely what a functioning Congress should decide, as the voice of the people. Congress’s miserable failure there, feeds into impulsive, lurching characters like Trump, and whatever his leftish mirror image is.
Seeing Mish – a reasonable human being whom I broadly disagree with politically – rooting for the nominally progressive wing of American politics…
What’s this warm and fuzzy feeling I have?
A touch of joy and happiness I think. It’s like when you see real Americans compromise and move on with their lives. Don’t take it away from me, I know less than I want will get accomplished. For tonight though, all you insane MAGA clowns and “both sides are the same” edgelords can suck it.
Any Econ blog is perennially doom and gloom. Tonight should prove otherwise, cheers
Hear hear
Mish is a bright lucid fellow who’s been hornswoggled by the MSM into TDS and thinking the alternative is manageable/preferred.
I know many of them….
Trumps no saint but really…Biden, Harris, Obama??? Talarico?? wow….
Nah, you have Trump Worship Syndrome. Just about any of those names you listed wouldn’t have :
Gotten the US involved in a pointless war
Started a trade war with Canada
Outsourced US foreign policy to Putin and Netanyahu
Put pardons up for sale to the highest bidder
Gin up DoJ prosecutions against dozens of his political opponents
Unleashed ICE in an illegal fashion causing Americans to lose their lives
Began illegal, extra-judicial attacks in international waters against purported drug-runners
Etc.
One more asinine comment like that and you are banned.
And show some humility on your idiotic projection of +2 after votes started coming in.
Normally I ban people of saying I have TDS.
Here’s the deal you have TDS.
I will let it slide so people can se what an idiot you are.
I am not rooting for Progressives in a meaningful way.
I want MAGA to get smashed to obliteration,
There is a huge difference.
Reporting from the Russian bot farm in St. Petersburg is nonametoday. How is Vladimir doing today?
My predict: Dems gain 2-3 Senate seats and of course the House as is wont in mid-terms.
Only me and polymarket have to square on this. You, your reputation is at stake.
Sanity prevails in the US. Polls are wrong again as when MAGA started in 2016.
You heard it here: “there’s a human element to politics”:
As discuss on leftist Colbart show:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GUvmvsKZII&t=83s
+8 more likely than +2
I like your (and poly’s) thinking … stack them odds and mo’ money for me!
Why bother with this dumb shit though, really? Day late and a dollar short. Looks like Mish’s reputation is safe.
I can hardly wait until all those data centers are completed. AI will know how we’re going to vote before we do and cast our votes for us.
No need to wait for data centers, do you have homeless centers? .. they’ll typically cast 1000+ votes per address.
LA mayor race is great power competition between Homeless and Unions!
https://nypost.com/2026/06/09/us-news/thousands-of-homeless-la-voters-registered-at-shelters-without-beds-including-one-linked-to-raman/
The only thing about today’s elections that is almost a certainty is that taco will do his best to overturn the results, if he doesn’t like them.
No. What is certain is FDT will blame everyone but himself and all of us will learn a little more about the psychology of a narcissist that may be helpful in the future in our own lives.
Shocker, the senile old boomer establishment position of high house prices and supressed wages isn’t popular. Shocker. But it’s the polar opposite of what Trump promised. This is more a referndum on how quickly the electorate see the truth.
Sad asking price is $200K for the house and Black Rock or similar offers you $225K to close the deal.
“persistent inflation”?? … agree, it’s higher than desired but that’s a MSM quote.
The actual story is REAL GDP growth at 3.4% past Q!
Yes, gains are accruing to the well positioned by brains, luck or cheating. And I don’t cheat.
I know … so many people get tired of all the WINNING!
The votes will tell us precisely how tired or otherwise they are. I think they will go more on their personal economic comfort or discomfort, than MSM or statistical numerical displays of some overall abstract of the economy. As they should.
That is acceptable. After all eggs are cheaper.
Just don’t eat out often nor use ImmigrantDash. (no disrespect intended)
Ya, it’s all good if you’re happy to live under a rock.
Of course, asset inflation (not in CPI) is massive thanks to fiat printing.
More IPOs quinces quenches equity demand; so will revert soon.
Housing demand … uh, try Austin or Houston or Fresno?
Land in desirable place? Nope, can’t make more of that.
Is there a Ukrainian drone out there with nothing to do?
The MSM is blasting about glitches everywhere. Michigan had one incident. Trump will use anything to claim it was stolen or just declare a national emergency.
My question is, what grasp does he have on reality?
Yes, Trump’s a loser.
Biden (minor incursion) or Kam (unburdened) were much more in touch with world events and how to weld power for the benefit of the USA, USA, USA, USA, ….
There will be a lot of kvetching around the margins. This will be a nice springboard for anyone of any persuasion who wants to hysterically denounce what is happening.
Do you grasp what’s happened in Alaska?
Nothing has happened yet but I’m looking forward to a democratic victory, although it will take a long time to sort out all the lawsuits and appeals.
Uh, can you say, “fraudulent candidate”?
(obvious but not yet proven … bank accounts will tell a story)