The reason I posted the cases from two days ago (March 22) at 31,767 is because that is the day I created this chart based on Covid Tracking Project data.
It is also the day I received an email from someone whose name most of you would instantly recognize. I was accused of hyping the data because there was “No way we would hit 100,000 cases on March 26“.
Here is my March 22 post: Covid Tracking Project: How Long to 1 Million US Cases?
Here is the Email I received with names removed.
It is not presently feasible to get to 100,000 cases in the US by March 26th.
To do so, the daily average growth rate in the number of cases would need to be 41.5% with a mean doubling time of case numbers of 2.0 days. I have not been calculating the numbers for the US as a whole, only for specific regions of personal interest, but a doubling time of 2.0 days is almost certainly too aggressive. In the regions I am tracking, where mitigation measures are in place, the mean doubling time is significantly longer; 2.3 to 2.7 days except for Colorado, where the reporting is very haphazard.
With respect to reaching a million cases by April 3, which is 11 days from now, this is certainly possible if current mitigations fail. It would require a daily average growth rate of 35% and a mean doubling time of 2.3 days sustained over that 11 day period.
These numbers are on the aggressive side of pessimistic, but feasible. They are, however, linear (well, log-linear) extrapolations of the current condition into the future, which never works accurately for large, complex systems, particularly where human decision makers and human efforts are at play.
A long way round to the same conclusion as yours: These publications do more to incite hysteria and grab clicks than they provide any basis for decision-making.
Galling Points
- Neither the person who emailed me nor the person so commented can read. This is what I said on March 22: “Those are not my projections, those are observations of what would happen if the current trends last that long at the same pace.“
- Two days later, I do note we are still on track for the “not feasible” by March 26.
- I do not attempt to “inciting hysteria or grab clicks“.
In regards to extrapolating data forever into the future, I agree. It will not happen.
But the person who emailed me could not even figure out that with hugely increased testing these numbers would rapidly rise for a while.
New York Coronavirus Cases
Readers asked for state totals so there is New York, the worst of the 50 states.
I do not project New York forward because the lines are not as smooth. What seems to be happening is that the day-to-day amount of testing varies by states.
The more testing in a state the more cases there will be found.
Te pattern of deaths in New York is interesting. For a couple of days there is no increase then a jump for two more days, then stabilization for two days. I have no explanation for this pattern.
Final Thoughts on Extrapolation
I suspect the US will will not hit 100,000 cases by March 26 but within a few days of that. Regardless, it is certainly “feasible”, and so much so that the extrapolated date has not even changed.
Meanwhile, what do you call someone who literally says it is “not feasible” while accusing you of presenting clickbait?
From the point of view of the average person in the US, is there any real difference if the number of cases touches 100,000 on March 26 vs March 27, or even April 1?
I suspect not.
Yes, the number of cases will stall at some point, perhaps sooner rather than later, but probably not.
Why?
Increased testing will pick up more cases while the virus itself is still spreading.
How hard should that be to figure out?
I ought to name names, but I won’t.
For the record I do not spread clickbait hysteria and I do hope the trendlines I show are high.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
So, we had 60 million Americans infected during the H1N1 (swine flu) epidemic and there was no national plea to isolate and lock everything down. Why – because that was Obama’s economy and we couldn’t make him look bad, could we?
It would appear that March 27th will the day we reach 100k. My current guess for March 31 is 200,000 cases, 3100 deaths.
3100 deaths doesn’t even reach the bottom number of the average deaths from the flu each year (12k to 61k)!
I’m not projecting it to pass this year’s regular flu (20k) until April 7th. By then I’m hoping that the rate of new cases drops, but we can still expect deaths in the hundreds of thousands before there is a vaccine. Of course, if we relax all the restrictions on Easter, all bets of keeping it under a million are off.
Most people can barely do lineal math and suck at thinking exponentially.
Learn to spell.
Good point. My bad. Linear math.
It looks to me that the number of cases is greatly underestimated. I saw a stat on the news last night that 46% of the serious cases were from the 24 to 45 age group. It is doubtful that Americans in this age group are more likely to be come seriously ill than Chinese, or any other nationality. Simply, a disproportionate number of 24 to 45 year olds are infected compared to the 65+ group. This ratio could easily be 10 to 1.
This is probably caused by the way that the disease entered the US (and Europe for that matter). Instead of infecting a few extended families (China has more grandparents living with children and grandchildren), it came to the US and Europe in younger people that travel to China on business. In the US and Europe, there is less contact between the 24 to 45 cohort and their parents, so most COVID 19 in younger people went undetected because no one was dying and no one was looking for it until recently. It spread like mad. This is why the high tech areas are having trouble. Grandma and Grandpa only got it when the kids came to visit. At that point, critically ill people started to show up at the ER.
I believe that I got it in Raleigh NC in early February. I had a terrible headache followed by a day of body aches, fever, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea followed by about six days more fever, extreme weakness, aches, bad chest congestion, wheezing and cough. My wife’s symptoms started a day after mine. My opinion at the time was that this thing was the flu, but a strain that could kill people, so we stayed away from other people. Our church is full of older people with medical conditions. It didn’t dawn on me until two days ago that this was probably COVID 19 when I read an article that said GI issues occurred in over half the cases. The other symptoms are classic.
That’s one of the potential upsides of antibody testing, along with more certainty about acquired immunity after infection, becoming widely available.
Assuming detected antibodies reliably indicate you are immune, you really can get back to work in Trump time, alongside all the other now immune ones.
I wish to publicize the use of melatonin in flu virus cases. There has been for years a lot of news about it, here is one:
In some types of flu/virus attacks, it is not the virus that kills people, it is the body’s release of its own chemicals that kills the patient. Melatonin seems to modulate/slow this body reaction.
I think it’s safe to say that Jojo is the mystery e-mailer alluded to by Mish.
Your views will change when you land up in hospital needing medical attention. Safe to say you are an ass.
One Root Cause of Pandemics Few People Think About
It’s our seemingly insatiable desire to eat meat https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/one-root-cause-of-pandemics-few-people-think-about/
While I suppose the chance of a quinoa virus jumping species to humans, is less than an animal one doing so; the case against “factory” farming in particular is much weaker.
Factory farms, usually involve masses of the same specie living close together.
While the conditions favoring viruses with the greatest species jumping potential, are instead lots of different species living close together.
Large bat colonies are often examples of the latter kind: Bats of all manners of different species, often share caves. Which is not unlikely why so many viruses unusually adept at adopting to a different species, have evolved among bats. As is flying bats’, and perhaps to a lesser extent birds’, wide ranging contact with non bat animals as well.
Should we also look at the death rate alongside. May be over a period. Since like Italy it may be that there are no deaths for a couple of days and then suddenly a spike.
I’d be very interested in hearing Mish’s take on the Putin-MbS-Trump ‘dispute’ about oil.
The stock market’s first 2000 down day (DJI) happened on Monday, March 9 which was the first trading day after Putin walked out on the Saudis, March 6.
Fracking bankruptcies are not directed by our political leaders even though the shutdowns are.
The last time you really spread clickbait hysteria was when you said Hillary Clinton had a degenerative brain disease, because she fainted and because of some stupid Youtube video with a quack doctor diagnosing remotely. That was super dumb and irresponsible, and you never retracted, apologized, or admitted how dumb and wrong it was.
Tax rebates, tax cuts and business bailouts will not solve this crisis. Here’s what’s needed. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/03/what-the-government-needs-to-do-next-to-tackle-the-crisis.html
If this virus was so damn contagious, then why isn’t every homeless camp riddled with sick people? Why aren’t they dying left and right?
Hell, in the best of times these people don’t keep their own areas clean, share needles, pipes, drugs and don’t bathe or wash their hands often. And yet, I am not seeing any great number of stories (in fact, so far I have seen zero) of rampant virus outbreaks among the homeless. In the SF Bay Area, there is only ONE documented homeless person death.
Here, the homeless are fussed over and monitored regularly. IF anything bad were happening, their stories would be on/in the local news but their aren’t any such stories!
Too many are hysterical and overreacting to this virus.
Well, Jojo, if you bothered to think about it for a moment, it’s a contagious disease that came from overseas. A quiz. Who gets a disease from overseas? People who live on the street? or two, people who travel internationally? It’s a contagious disease. That means you have to catch it from someone else. Like people you work with or socialize with or at events you go to. Do you think homeless people hang out with people who travel internationally? Wadayathink? Right now they’re pretty safe but that will change as living on the street isn’t great for hygiene. You know what hygine is dontcha Jojo?
You should try putting on your thinking cap. Homeless people are out begging all day and night. People give them left-over food that they don’t eat either directly or leave it on top of trashcans for them. Then they sleep close together in encampments, share drugs and generally don’t have good hygiene. If there were any group that is in the thick of everything, it is the homeless! And yet, we hear nothing about them.
And if traveling overseas is the problem, well, I haven’t traveled overseas and don’t associate with anyone who has/does recently. So then I am free to do as I please, no?
It’s funny how on every attempt to question the scare actions taken by TPTB winds up with someone throwing a new curve. like your reference to overseas travel or its because we don’t have enough hospital beds for what we fear we might need or if you aren’t sick then you might be a silent carrier or aren’t you worried about the children/old folk, sick and infirm, morbidly obese, etc. It’s downright fucking amazing how many people have drunk this Coronavirus kool aid!
And the reason your post makes sense is that I noticed “popular” people (musicians, actors, jet setters) get Covid-19, while ‘stay at homes’ don’t. The homeless typically don’t touch or get close to anybody, so perhaps they are not affected as much. Except for needle sharing, they seem to be loners. Either that or JoJo’s stats are wrong.
Could be that Americans are in better physical condition too. Even though a lot of people are obese they don’t live in a heavily polluted industrial center decade after decade like wuhan where your lungs are going to be in a weaker state prior to infection.
But give it time, 6 weeks from now it’ll be different for sure.
In less than 6 weeks hopefully Trump will issue back to work orders and everyone can get on with their life, treating this foolishness for what it is.
If we don’t see some significant #’s in 3-4 weeks I’ll be thinking about the possibility this was a psy op too.
Shutting down whole economies because of a virus that kills a fraction of 1% of the population is not rational. I don’t mean to trivialize anyones death or loss of a family member but by now I would’ve expected truckloads of bodies in many densely populated countries. S Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc. I saw the convoy of army trucks in Italy carrying 70 caskets but my work truck has a 12′ flat bed that could carry at 12-14, why the big production of a convoy of 15-20 big military trucks?
We’ll know in 3-4 weeks I guess.
The whole goal of isolating is to wake up in a month and have everyone criticizing the efforts because so few got sick. Don’t you get it? That’s what success looks like in this endeavor.
Yes I get the saving lives angle, my mother and sister are both very high risk but shutting down whole economies and trillions of dollars of more debt put on the national debt? maybe 10’s of trillions?
It’s pretty clear the majority of victims are in they’re 60’s, 70’s and 80’s. Is it rational or fair to nation, its populace and future?
In the end of a 2, 3 or 6 month quarantine we’ll still be living with this virus, it won’t be eradicated.
And in the eyes of the world and rightly so, America and the west will look weak and vulnerable because we couldn’t make rational decisions in a crisis.
To be fair we had to take extreme caution because we can not trust China, where this virus came from and the actions they took were cause for extreme alarm. That should be made abundantly clear to the population, over and over. The CCP’s actions are largely responsible for this whole catastrophe.
But because of the extreme manner that we went about this, we will never know for sure IF the shelter-in-place/economic shutdown did the trick or IF, just perhaps, the virus wasn’t really that bad originally and most people would recover, just as they do with the flu.
For me, the “magic number” is 100K deaths in the USA.
At that number, there is no sweeping it under the rug. Even for The Dumpster®.
Well then, only 99,222 to go!
I think we’ll be out of speculation mode come Monday. Either Cuomo’s patients will or won’t match the results of doctors elsewhere using the Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin combination. There should be an 80%+ reduction in viral load and a dramatic reduction in deaths if his results do track.
Mish – I’ve been a daily reader of yours since before the last crash when you were Global Economics Trend Analysis. One of a few trusted sources.
Anyone on here still think we’re smarter than the Chinese and can stop it before we reach 82,000?
You are a lunatic if you believe the Chinese numbers
Aside from some other Asian countries (and perhaps some in Northern Europe), China’s numbers are likely the most accurate ones available. Simply because they were not overwhelmed for too long.
In Southern Europe they are barely, if at all, able to report accurate counts even of deaths by now, since some people are just laying around dead until they start stinking. Cases….Fawgettabout it! Even in Wuhan at the peak, there’s no indication of things getting that far out of control.
Also, between Trump and Pelosi and their cronies, their respectives at state and local levels, in addition to arbitrary ambulance chasers and the courts which serve as their arbitrary enforcement apparatus, and the the leech armies enabled by The Fed; American totalitarian institutions have just as much “total state power” over individuals as the CCP. They’re simply not nearly as competent at using it.
Total state power over people is not a sign of intelligence. You’re free to move to China and kiss the brilliant feet of Xi.
No
Mish, help me understand. Here in Australia we watch your President make ludicrous statements and get pretty scared. Surely most Americans cannot buy his “personal beliefs” over scientific and medical facts. Is he seriously prepared to let people die in order to hold up companies and the stock market. How is it possible that people believe him? What am I missing?
Unfortunately, we have a major cable news station in the US that supports the President no matter what ridiculous thing he says. About 50% of the population watch it religiously, and believe it unquestionably.
so it is sort of cult like then?
For some. For many, they let his BS slide by making excuses, such as “but the economy is good”, or “but he’s so good for the stock market”, or “he nominates the right people to the Supreme Court”. The alt-right will support him no matter what because his xenophobic views most align with theirs.
Now that the economy is toast, people will continue to make excuses for his BS. I’m anticipating excuses, such as “you can’t blame him for the virus”, or “his response has been excellent”, even though his response has been completely inadequate and often naive and contradictory.
It’s called cult dynamics
That’s why there are checks and balances provided by 3 branches of the government.
If only those worked. Unfortunately the SC is in the cult, the Senate is in the cult, almost half of the House is in the cult.
About a third of the country are members of Trump’s cult. To them he is like a God, they believe everything he says with a religious fervor and do not question any of it.
He’s a bloody idiot and malignant narcissist. If the truth is damaging to him in any way then damn the truth and make shit up that completely contradicts science.
Actually I do think by the end of March 26th, we will reach 100K based on how fast the numbers are rising.
And we still are not testing for shit here in Cali. I’m running a care package to a friend here in LA who is 65 with a mild case of luekemia that is home with a hard hitting flu and a fever and no test any time on the horizon. Plus when you get tested here it takes like seven days to get the results
Current numbers are:
Coronavirus Cases:422,629
Deaths:18,895
Even if we get to 100k deaths, that would be way short of the average flu deaths globally, which is 650,000.
Your reasoning is really poor. Everyone’s doing this so that the death rate is 100K. If you don’t do any of this, 1% of 7 billion is 7 million. 2% is 14 million. Are you just dense?
But if everyone if the world got it, ie, nothing put in place to stop it, surely the death rate would outstrip the deaths by flu very quickly?
Oops 1% of 7 billion is actually 70 million.
Most Americans are not helping. Myself included. I see hoards of people at stores. Very sloppy social distancing and little regard for wiping keypads and things like that. Parks and playgrounds PACKED!
Different states are reacting differently. I see none of that here. People are being very cautious, and respecting social distances everywhere you go. Is that why we have the lowest rate of COVID19 in the country? Is that why our spread rate is consistently low? Perhaps.
Has it occurred to anyone that if everyone in the US were tested, right this very minute, that there may already be 1 million or more cases? Ohio’s health authority stated over a week ago she thought they had over 100k cases. Just because you have it doesn’t mean your dropping dead and rushing to the hospital. I just read something from supposed FEDEX employees being told to come to work sick for fear of losing their jobs and they sounded like they had symptoms of covid19.
btw im sure many of you suspect it
This thing has likely been in the US for at least 2 months, every day spreading to more and more, every shopping cart handle, every door handle, etc. I’d be surprised if it was less then 6 million right now at this moment. Of course its just a guess but think about it for 2 min.
Yep, there are many many cases and on average it takes a week or so to really get symptoms if you get them.
According to the “Super Forecasters” site the USA might “only”, say the consensus, have a 70% chance of less than 23M Americans infected by Covid-19 and a 80% chance of less than 350k deaths in the USA. See: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard
Hard to argue with these guys since they are like Idiot Savants when it comes to predicting the future (see the book by G. Tedlock I believe, “Superforecasters”).
Andy Slavitt @ House with garden
@ASlavitt
As we know Trump has said they are taking steps to “open up” the country.
If people did, the reason will be because of the number one risk factor: age? No. Pre-existing illness? No.
Number one risk factor right now is no access to an ICU bed or ventilator. /17
Mish – “The pattern of deaths in New York is interesting. For a couple of days there is no increase then a jump for two more days, then stabilization for two days. I have no explanation for this pattern.”
With respect, what did everyone say when China exhibited uneven patterns?
In the long range, it’ll be smooth in the coming alps of the graph of cases
That they were and always will be cheating, but when its the US, well, its … nothing, probably a jagged outlier. On similar note, EU policy note accuse China of controlling the narrative by donating supplies to italy and serbia, 2 countries left to fend for themselves by… the EU.
Atlanta Mayor tells #cbs46 News ICU units in hospitals across the city are at capacity #BREAKING #Exclusive on@cbs46
You’re a nicer person than I am Mish.
I wouldn’t have hesitated to name names.
Accusing you of posting click-bait is one thing, but inciting hysteria? Please. If he actually knew you at all he would know that’s bullshit.
I read here often but don’t usually post much. And I don’t know you personally, but I can tell you that of all the people out there writing about this, you’re probably the most level-headed and least hysterical of the bunch by far.
Just keep doing what you’re doing.
I am just not understanding how the ‘stay at home’ method of dealing with this virus can be effective without a vaccine (which almost no one thinks will be ready until 2021).
Here is the issue: Let’s say we lock people down for a month, and stabilize new rates of infection. If we then remove the lockdown, people will move around again and the virus will start right back up and we will have the exact same problem. Do we then have to do another lockdown for another month? Repeating 1 month on, 1 off, until a vaccine is developed? Or do we remain in lockdown continuously for as long as a year?
Even in the epicenter of the virus, in Wuhan, we have never had close to 1% being infected, so immunity from getting the disease is not much of a factor; you still have 99% of the population at risk.
How do you end a lockdown, knowing that the same problem starts back up again as soon as people are free to move around again?
Does anyone have any insight into this?
From what I gather, you make some vague noises about the economic problems killing more people than the virus would (despair and suicides). Then you lift the shelter in place orders you didn’t order.
Easy peasy.
Bend the curve to slow the rate of infection, then test, trace, quarantine . You would need a competent federal government to set that up, which it looks like we don’t have. So there is no good solution. We get patchwork state by state solutions that will be undermined by inability to stem interstate infections and migrations.
Why won’t the virus resume spreading in China? The idea I think, is that the virus dies whilst it has been unable to spread, because without a host it cannot live. So unless it’s reintroduced from other areas it won’t restart. If they allow travel into the region from infected areas too soon I presume it would restart. We don’t know if it’s worked totally yet but soon will.
Warmer spring weather will negatively impact transmission
Why do you think that? It is spreading every bit as fast in the summer weather of the Southern Hemisphere as it is in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the last seven days, the spread rate has been:
N. America +27% a day
Africa +25% a day
Carribbean +24% a day
C. America +21% a day
Pacific Islands/Australia +20% a day
Former USSR +20% a day
S. America +19% a day
N. Africa +17% a day
Europe +14% a day
Which of these numbers leads you to believe the spread will be slower in warm weather?
If they tested every person I bet we’d all need a clean pair of underwear after seeing the results.
No, because there are only two possible results. First, we might find that our numbers are right. Second, we might find a lot of previously undetected cases. That would be the better alternative, because it would mean that the CFR is much lower than we think, and that we are much closer to herd immunity than we think.
Other states just really don’t care about testing, including CA. I mean who believes those numbers really? Apparently Europeans only visit New York only. Let’s be real.
Mish I look to you by and large as the voice of reason in these heated moments. While I do not agree on all points in your posts, you are balanced. Keep it up!