Covid Tracking Project
Inquiring minds are investigating a relatively new data feed from the Covid Tracking Project.
I plot four data series for the US: Negative tests, positive tests,hospitalized, and deaths.
Arguably, hospitalizations are the most significant column but the project only has two days worth of data.
Once I have another data point or two, I will plot a trendline manually.
- At the current pace, the number of positive coronavirus cases would hit 100,000 on March 26, and 1,000,000 on April 3.
- At the current pace, the number of coronavirus deaths would hit 1,000 on March 26, and 10,000 on April 5.
Those are not my projections, those are observations of what would happen if the current trends last that long at the same pace.
Goldman Projects GDP Decline Worse Than Great Depression
On March 20, I reported Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression
- Goldman Sachs economists forecast a historically sharp and swift recession, with second-quarter GDP sinking a stunning 24% after a 6% decline in the first quarter.
- The economists had expected a decline of 5% in the second quarter, after a flat first quarter but they said social distancing measures have affected many sectors of the economy and will hit the first and second quarter hard.
- The economists still expect a spring back in the third quarter, of 12%, but they see unemployment peaking at 9%.
Morgan Stanley -31% Annualized GDP in the Second Quarter
If you open up the article it sounds impossibly rosy.
Morgan Stanley economists said the coronavirus will inflict a deeper recession on the U.S. than previously expected, including a record 30.1% drop in gross domestic product in the second quarter.
Less than a week since forecasting a 4% contraction in April through June, the economists led by Ellen Zentner said they now anticipated a steeper drop and that unemployment will average 12.8% and consumption will fall 31% in the quarter.
The Morgan Stanley team predicts GDP will fall 2.4% in the current quarter, but will begin to recover in the third quarter. Overall, they project the U.S. economy to contract 2.3% on a fourth quarter to fourth quarter basis in 2020, taking full-year global growth down to just 0.3%.
A 30% decline in a quarter but year-over-year almost even!
What the hell are they thinking? Or Smoking?
9% of the US Has Been Laid Off Due to the Coronavirus
A SurveyUSA poll shows 9% of the US Has Been Laid Off Due to the Coronavirus
I crunched the numbers based on those poll stats and come up with a U3 unemployment rate of 12% and a U6 rate of 39.7%. See the link for details and calculations.
Conclusion: Goldman is way too optimistic on the unemployment rate.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock