The government shutdown is talking a toll on economic reports. Third-quarter GDP delayed today.
Delays of the Week
- October 27: Durable Goods
- October 29: International Trade in Goods
- October 29: Retail Inventories
- October 29: Wholesale Inventories
- October 30: Advance Third-Quarter GDP
- October 30: Jobless Claims
- October 31: Personal Income and Outlays
- October 31: Employment Cost Index
Missing Inflation and Jobs Data
The Personal Income and Outlays report also releases the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
No household unemployment, establishment jobs data, or price data was gathered in October. The CPI, PCE, and Unemployment reports for October will be garbage, perhaps missing.
The Fed can piece some jobs-related data from statewide initial and continued claims data but the key measures it relies are AWOL.
Despite the missing data, GDPNow made estimates. Its final estimate was 3.9 percent.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was 3.0 percent in a range of 1.7 percent to 3.8 percent.
Reader Question
A reader asked: Where are we on the unemployment rate?
The answer is No Household Data Collected for October – Literally None
100,000 Government Workers were paid through September.
Unemploment counting starts October 1.
How many government workers found jobs? I have no idea. Those who did were are the expense of someone else.
Related Posts
October 10, 2025: Trump Recalls BLS Workers to Produce CPI Report Because SS Payments Need It
Oops, please come back.
October 24, 2025: Market Giddy Over Tame CPI for September, But Was It Really Tame?
Tame September CPI? How Tame?
Thats ok mish. Dont need it. The conservative radio guys say everything is good. Getting so much better than when biden was president.
I can’t afford to work.
FRED has not yet updated the weekly or continuing claims at the state level for the week ending 10/25. On a thread last Friday I posted the data through 10/18. When FRED catches up (presumably today or tomorrow), here are the links:
Weekly Initial Claims, 14 most populous states plus DC:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NpaX
Weekly Continuing Claims, 14 most populous states plus DC:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Npck
When the reports are released in November and they don’t align with a need to cut rates, the Fed will still cut rates in December and use Fed-speak to befuddle the masses.
“We see inflation is running even hotter and continues to accelerate, but we will continue monitoring conditions and balancing risks as we navigate this uncertain environment where the only thing that’s certain is prices will continue to skyrocket”
Recent visit to big box store. One cart of food and a few consumable items was $400. When I was in Asia earlier this year, a full cart of food was $40.
This time next year that same cart in America will likely be $500+ and your healthcare, auto and home insurance will be up 10% or more. Utilities will be up 8% and Trump/GOP will take 100% of the blame. 100%
If it is so good why didn’t you stay in Asia?
I didn’t want to come back but it takes a while to unwind a large estate and restructure a portfolio of assets and do estate planning. You of all people should know that if you really live in France.
As I recall, you have a daughter in New York, do you have an estate plan for all the French estate taxes?
https://www.expatica.com/fr/finance/taxes/french-inheritance-tax-101812/
Why don’t you regale us with your vast knowledge of estate trust and taxation. Try to contribute something useful other than your endless spite, hate and anger.
MPO45 is hate and anger. A jihadist. Hamas. Too rich to protest in the streets with the brainwash mob.
Oh man, you made me laugh today! That’s why I keep coming back to Mishtalk, the commenters are like the Jerry Springer show with so many clowns and dimwitted guests.
I work hard to make people laugh !
Should check out zero hedge then.
Thank you for sharing your opinion. A long time ago, I realized that true critical thinking requires understanding all sides. Only then can you cut through inherent biases and determine fact from friction.
You can unwind it from overseas as many do so you are sprouting your usual bull. My estate is taken care of which is why I know you can do it overseas as easily as you can in country which is how I know you are talking nonsense.
Nope, that’s nonsense unless your estate is just a worthless shack. Besides it’s a 12 hour time zone difference from US to Asia and I am not getting up at 2 am for a 2 pm call.
And my response to your next comment on this thread is gonna be “Ok boomer.”
I’m calling BS. First, someone like you doesn’t just say big box store. You’re going to give the name, Costco / Walmart / Target.
2nd, I bet there’s a big difference in the size of carts when comparing Asian stores to big boxes here in the USA, land of the free / home of the brave.
Sorry, broski, but we’re not going to see 25% higher prices in the US for stuff we buy from Costco, etc.
As for you last point, you do get some cred for being more in-line with things like insurance cost increases; however, just make sure you’re toast by the midterms. We don’t want you casting anymore ballots. You need to head over to China & see if you can vote in Xi’s next fake election.
Just leave already & stop acting like you’re trying to unwind Jeff Beso’s estate.
Wow, this comment is dripping with triggered rage, anger and bitterness. If you must know what store it was it’s Costco. If you want me to publish the items I bought for $400 I can do that too. And if you don’t understand prices in Asia then you clearly have never traveled there. All you have to do is go over to YouTube and type “grocery prices in <pick Asian country> to get an idea.
I’m not moving to China so don’t worry but as difficult as it may be for you to comprehend, not all of us are poor saps trying to get by….
You clearly don’t have any assets to leave to your kids or anyone else if you have no clue about estate taxes and planning. Some day you may grow up and find yourself in the same situation.
It has been many years since I shopped at Costco. I still remember buying top-grade food, often imported–cheeses from England, France, etc and matching the wines. Then, wild salmon, rib eye, etc. Always the best quality at a good price.
BTW, I followed your suggestion and shopped in Thailand. Aus 150 days Grain Fed Angus Tenderloin 200to220g for 539 baht.
The exchange rate to US gives $16.66.
210 grams is about 0.46 pounds.
So about $36 per pound.
Costco sells AUS whole tenderloins for $239.99 for 5 pounds, or $48 per pound.
Clearly there is a reason to shop at Walmart 🙂
You bought imported Australian beef in Thailand? Well it’s still cheaper than US beef even though imported and likely had a bunch of tariff and VAT.
“Triggered rage”
You got me, dude! Don’t call the cops, okay?
Yes, please publish the receipt & go ahead & write down the first 12 digits of your credit card, exp date, CCV & your zip code.
Now worries, man, just enjoying giving you a hard time.
Enjoy your expat time abroad, whenever it actually arrives.
The evil dems, who shutdown the gov, blame Trump for cutting SNAP. Are u
going to donate to shingle mums with children, tax free, or give them an offer they can’t refuse.
I already pay over 100k in federal income tax each year, I pay thousands in FICA on every paycheck for the social security leeches. I pay property taxes for the poor children and schools, I pay sales taxes for the other leeches.
Enough is enough, it’s time to cut off all the leeches before we all die from exsanguination.
Nah they will just blame joe biden obama dems etc. combined with the gerrymandering they will do fine.
They can keep doubling down on repubs until they are ground down to nothing. The Trumptanic has been taking on water for decades and I assure you sir, she will sink.
I’ll be watching from afar.
The truth is that the mass media and its minions will 100% blame Trump, ignoring long-term structural issues going back to the 1990s, and earlier.
Think they used to not make any statements at all. Then they started the whole keep the markets stable stuff. I wonder how the warning of the next move moves the market.
DXY: 100
Predictably. The FED tightened credit.
Link Dr. Daniel Thornton: “the interest rate is the price of credit, not the price of money”
“Today “monetary policy” should be more aptly named “interest rate policy” because policymakers pay virtually no attention to money.”
link Daniel L. Thornton, Vice President and Economic Adviser: Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Paper Series
“Monetary Policy: Why Money Matters and Interest Rates Don’t”
1D DXY: Oct 29 flip. In order to move up DXY has to close > Oct 9 high. Take your bets. 1M: Oct flip !!!
The FED drained reserves at the same junction as money flows reversed.
Sep 2025: 3,068.1
Aug 2025: 3,281.9
Jul 2025: 3,340.3
Jun 2025: 3,356.0
May 2025: 3,263.0
View All
Prof Spencer, DXY 1D: the trend is Up. DXY 1W: the trend is Up. DXY 1M: the trend is Up!
The FED will be tightening AD
R-gDp / Inflation
9/1/2025 ,,,,, 0.032 ,,,,, 0.153
10/1/2025 ,,,,, 0.033 ,,,,, 0.148
11/1/2025 ,,,,, 0.042 ,,,,, 0.148
12/1/2025 ,,,,, 0.019 ,,,,, 0.124
1/1/2026 ,,,,, 0.015 ,,,,, 0.137
2/1/2026 ,,,,, 0.019 ,,,,, 0.145
3/1/2026 ,,,,, 0.008 ,,,,, 0.116
4/1/2026 ,,,,, 0.011 ,,,,, 0.088
5/1/2026 ,,,,, 0.005 ,,,,, 0.097
6/1/2026 ,,,,, 0 ,,,,, 0.092
If the FED is targeting N-gDp, then the timing for this cut is correct. The rate-of-change in monetary flows, the volume and velocity of money, will fall going forward.
“Irving Fisher’s distributed lag effect is a concept in econometrics that suggests that the effect of a change in a variable is not felt immediately but is distributed over a series of time periods. This idea was first introduced by Fisher in the 1920s and has since become a fundamental tool in the analysis of time series data. ”
Given the size of the fiscal deficits, we don’t want tax receipts to decline, let alone employment levels.
We don’t need economic reports, Trump will just tell us whats up and it’ll all be positive. /s
re: the soybean “deal”–perhap 12 mil ton by year end, but
…the US president “did discuss that this would be a yearly review and negotiation” rather than a single durable deal.
“So, I would expect that agricultural products – soybeans, pork, these kinds of things – will be part of negotiations every year moving forward to ensure that the Chinese buy them,” he said, adding this would give farmers and other agricultural companies an idea of what they will be able to sell every year….
That seems rather fraught–
since when in recent times has the Chinese government controlled completely ag commodity purchases?
and when would these purchases be “negotiated”-prior to the planting season? prior to farmer committment?
so now with every year concessions will be squeezed out for commodity sales
Sounds like a wonderful leash on the US for the Chinese
Lol. Sound like Trump has “negotiated” ceding control of American ag to China. I guess China will tell American farmers how much to plant, when to harvest, and how much they will be paid.
This is what happens when you have buffoon hillbillies in charge of government.
Got exit strategy?
Sounds like the former Soviet Union trade system (COMECON), except at that time multi-year trade exchange targets were set among COMECON countries. That system imploded spectacularly…
The more u complain about Trump, the more u have in the bank.