Oops, please come back. 
BLS Notice
BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.
The above from a BLS Website Notice
Quick CPI Summary
- The Trump administration is recalling furloughed workers to publish the September consumer-price index, which is used for various government services.
- The Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 relies in part on September CPI data.
- September inflation data also affects Treasury inflation-protected securities, and I bonds.
- The Fed uses CPI data in its determination of monetary policy
Social Security COLAs
The Wall Street Journal comments Why the Next CPI Report Is Important for Social Security Checks, Bonds and 401(k)s
Social Security
Under normal circumstances, retirees would learn next week how much bigger their Social Security checks for 2026 would be. That is because the annual raise is tied to the average inflation data for July, August and September, and announced soon after the release of the September report.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is required to be published by Nov. 1. The BLS said Friday that the later October release of the CPI report allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.
The nonprofit Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates, based on data through August, a 2.8% Social Security COLA for next year, up from this year’s 2.5% raise. But a surprise in the CPI data for September could meaningfully raise or lower that estimate.
I bonds, TIPS
The Treasury Department issues two types of bonds that are indexed for inflation: Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, and the savings bonds known as I bonds.
Investors in both might have ended up slightly worse without the September CPI report, though most wouldn’t notice a big change in what the bonds pay out. That is because interest on the bonds would be based on an estimate for September inflation, rather than the actual number.
TIPS have a principal that adjusts based on the change in consumer prices, and a fixed interest rate that is applied to that principal. Those adjustments are typically announced for the coming month around the time that the CPI report for the previous month is released.
If September inflation data hadn’t been released by the end of October, regulations say the Treasury Department must come up with a substitute number based on the assumption that prices rose at the same pace as over the previous 12 months.
401(k) and IRA contribution limits
The IRS typically announces 401(k) and IRA contribution limits for the following year in the fall, based in part on the September inflation data. Those caps were also set to be delayed without the report.
In 2025, individuals under 50 can contribute up to $23,500 to their 401(k)s and similar plans. Those 50 and older can kick-in an extra $7,500 in catch-up contributions, an allowance that rises to $11,250 for people 60 to 63.
For IRAs, the current limit is $7,000, rising to $8,000 for people 50 and older.
Actuarial firm Milliman estimates the 2026 limits for 401(k)s will be $24,500, rising to $32,500 for those 50 and older and $35,750 for those 60 to 63.
Please Come Back
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House Speaker Mike Johnson Supports This Message
“There are programs that probably should be eliminated, but we want federal employees to be protected,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) on NBC News.
September CPI Year-Over-Year Guess
One of the key determinants of year-over-year CPI is what happened to the month-over-month CPI a year ago.
Last month, I calculated the September 2024 CPI to two decimal places at 0.23 percent.
Barring revisions, a month-over-month CPI over 0.23 percent would cause the year-over-year CPI to rise. If lower, the year-over-year CPI would drop.
0.23 is a middle of the road number. Something like 0.00 for September of 2024 would have me thinking the year-over-year number would rise in September 2025.
Barring revisions, the year-over-year change for September 2025 rates to be unchanged from August +- 0.1 percentage point.
To two decimal places, I have year-over year CPI for August at 2.92 percent.
Look for ~2.9 percent this year, up from 2.5 percent from last year.
Related Posts
September 11, 2025: CPI Provides No Reason for Fed to Cut Interest Rates, It Will Anyway
The CPI was higher than expected in August, but the Fed will do what it wants to do.
October 7, 2025: How Screwed Up Are BLS Real and Nominal Median Earnings?
Discrepancies between ADP and the BLS are vast. Let’s start with the BLS.
Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI?
I discussed homeowners insurance on August 11, 2025 in Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI? Shop Around!
Our Insurance went up by $2,000. Then another $2,000. Here’s our story.
Also consider Where Do You Spend Money on Food? How Screwed Up Are the BLS Weights?
Does the BLS match your budget?
Don’t worry, Trump says “There is virtually no inflation.”
would be better if they produced numbers closer to reality as they last did about 1982 (if my year is correct) – perhaps a subscription to ShadowStats would be more economical? less waste
raygun also changed the calculations for unemployment. he was the original grifter, who tripled the debt and doubled the department of war in peacetime. the past 45 years has been just raygunomics writ large. the rest is eyewash. buy gold kids.
It may be seldom, but sometimes the President recognizes he is stupid.
And actually does something to correct the dumb decision, instead of hiding them.
At least there’s that.
In past shutdowns, they just waited until the shutdown was over to finalize SS COLAs.
This tells me they expect this shutdown to last a long time.
The 2026 COLA looks to be slightly less than the 2025 COLA, based on the last 3 months of data.
At the same time, Medicare Part B premiums are expected to go up 11-12 percent, with the usual increase in deductibles.
At least SS recipients will be better off than federal workers, who are set to get a 1% raise that will be wiped out by a 12% increase in their health insurance contributions.
correction: The 2026 COLA would be 2.6% if it was based on the last 3 months of data, which is ahead of last year’s 2.5% COLA.
Hilarious. What’s next? Restarting Democrat programs?
Hahahaha!
Love it.
Let everyone go. We don’t need government workers anyway.
Oops.
Wait, I thought 99% of those here on Mishtalk have been saying Trump was going to bury the BLS data?
I don’t recall any such comment.
And I certainly never accused the BLS of doctoring the data, a preposterous claim by Trump.
I agree. I’ve never read where you’ve said the BLS plays politics. We both agree that some of their data is not reliable.
Be that as it may, a lot of posters said Trump was going to cook bad economic data / bury it after he sacked the BLS Director.
I don’t have time to read everything here, but I certainly don’t recall 99% saying that Trump was going to bury BLS data. Why do you make that sh*t up? Or do you have some data to back it up?
I do recall that YOU want the government shut down for as long as possible. Which would include BLS.
Oops.
You’re absolutely full of BS.
Back when Trump sacked the BLS Director, a lot of the Trump haters here were saying that Trump was going to use that to bury bad economic data.
That’s a FACT. Okay, 99% is hyperbole, but almost every fervent Trump hater was making that accusation.
Lol! I wasn’t the moron claiming that 99% of posters here said Trump was going to bury BLS data. So I am not the one who is full of BS. That would be YOU.
And now you admit it was not 99%. Thanks for admitting you are full of BS.
How about you go back and provide a list of every single poster who said such a thing. See if you can find a few. It will be fun to see your list. I know that I never said such a thing.
Then tell me what percentage of posters that represents.
But you won’t. Because it will be too embarrassing for you to realize what a moron you are.
Turns out the CPI is “essential,” even for the Trump administration.
It would be interesting to know how many people the republicans fired in doge purge and how many got hired back.
It will be interesting to watch to see if trump fires federal workers who are registered democrats. Since he has access to those voter roles he requested from the states.
I believe ~6,000 recalled.
Posted this with my Challenger Report
https://mishtalk.com/economics/job-cuts-in-2025-are-the-highest-total-since-2009-excluding-2020/
Here you go …
The Government sector has announced 299,755 planned job cuts this year, of which 289,363 were Federal workers impacted by DOGE. In September, Challenger tracked 5,656 rescinded layoffs and attempts to rehire previously laid off workers at eight agencies. These are counted as hiring plans and reported in the firm’s hiring figures
Thanks. Hope your doing better
I am much better. Thanks