Just 25 miles or less can make a surge difference of 10 feet. It’s touch an go. Let’s discuss damages. 
A 13 foot surge in downtown Tampa could wipe out the entire downtown area.
This Tweet posted in my edit. But if all you see is a Link below then click on this Update From Meteorologist Brian Bennett.
BOTTOM LINE:
🌊These two locations are only 25 miles apart, but it will make a WORLD of difference as to who receives the catastrophic surge.
🌊The counterclockwise winds around a hurricane means that locations (in the left quadrant) to the north of landfall will have offshore winds & marginal surge. Locations (in the right quadrant) to the south will have onshore winds & devastating surge.
PINELLAS COUNTY LANDFALL:
🌊A Pinellas County landfall means that downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, & everyone adjacent to the Bay will have catastrophic flooding reaching twice the height of Helene’s surge.
🌊The estimated population impacted by a 10ft+ surge is around 510,000.
MANATEE COUNTY LANDFALL:
🌊A Manatee County landfall means that downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, & everyone adjacent to the Bay will only have a less intense, perhaps marginal, surge. Tampa’s surge would be TEN FEET LESS than a landfall occurring 25 miles farther north in Pinellas.
🌊However, areas around Longboat Key & Siesta Key would have a slightly higher surge.
🌊The estimated population impacted by a 10 ft surge or greater would be around 200,000.
NOTE:
🌊I reached these forecast numbers by comparing data from Hurricane Michael with this storm, factoring in observations from the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, local bathymetry/topography details, & knowledge about tropical systems.
🌊Neither scenario is ideal. Obviously folks in downtown St. Pete and downtown Tampa would prefer a much farther south landfall. With any luck this storm & it’s dangerous surge would dissipate. But.. unfortunately that’s not going to happen. So, it’s time to have realistic numbers so rescue crews, etc can plan accordingly.
FORECAST:
🌊As of the latest models, a landfall around Bradenton Beach is looking more likely. But, a slight wobble can take the storm either direction.
🌊These numbers are my forecast based on the best of my ability. But, every storm is different. Please follow guidance from the NHC and local officials.
Milton Regained Cat 5
Better Visualization of the Surge
That is a Much Better Simulation than I posted earlier today. Click on that link if the X embed does not display.
View From Space
X is having serious issues with embeds.
Why Tampa Is So Vulnerable
The Wall Street Journal explains Why the Tampa Area Is So Vulnerable to a Hurricane
Milton strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane again early Tuesday night as it barreled toward Florida’s west-central coast with maximum sustained winds of 165 miles an hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters predicted a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet for the Tampa Bay area and up to 18 inches of rainfall across parts of Florida. Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday night.
“If Milton stays on its course, this will be the most powerful hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years,” the National Weather Service in Tampa said Tuesday. “No one in the area has ever experienced a hurricane this strong before in the area.”
The Tampa and St. Petersburg metro area is the most vulnerable to flooding damage in the U.S., according to a 2015 study by risk modeler Karen Clark & Co. Among the reasons the report cited: a shallow continental shelf off the coast and a funnel effect in Tampa Bay that together create the potential for a huge buildup of water that can inundate neighborhoods.
In addition, the metro area has experienced a building boom in recent decades that has sent the population soaring to about 3.2 million. Much of the development is on low-lying ground, with poorly developed drainage systems. A third of the area’s residents live within storm-surge zones.
In 2010, the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council drew up the Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan, in which a hypothetical Category 5 storm dubbed “Hurricane Phoenix” hit downtown Tampa with 160 mph winds and a 26-foot storm surge. The study projected that the city would have about 2,000 deaths and nearly $250 billion in damage.
In Tampa Bay, nearly 17,000 commercial properties and apartment buildings spanning 182 million square feet are in areas at high risk of flooding, according to real-estate data company CoStar Group. Billions of dollars of private and public funds have been invested in the redevelopment of downtown Tampa’s waterfront in recent decades. Many of these buildings are in vulnerable low-lying areas, according to data from CoStar.
“The way Tampa Bay is set up, it’s almost certain that they’re going to get a surge coming up into the bay,” said Neal Dorst, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. “It’s going to have nowhere to go.”
If 3.2 million live in Tampa and 1/3 of them are in the surge zone that means over a million homes will be hard hit with damages.
If the potential max surge hits, anyone you stays will be lucky if they live. Homes are going to be washed away.
Corelogic Estimate for Helene
Please consider Final Estimated Damages for Hurricane Helene to be Between $30.5 Billion and $47.5 Billion
Insured losses are only $10.5 to $17.5 billion.
Barring a sudden change for the better, Milton may easily exceed that by 10 times.
Expect a Huge Florida Exodus
Florida never appealed to me as a place to live, but it’s the third most populous state after California and Texas.
Florida passed New York in 2013 or 2014.
The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone
The Wall Street Journal reports The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone
Anthony Holmes was part of the great Florida migration. In 2021, he moved from Virginia to a gated suburban community in Tampa.
He paid $550,000 for his five-bedroom home and spent another $50,000 on solar panels and interior improvements. When he had to move back to Virginia for work, Holmes expected to sell his house quickly. But since listing it in February, he has had no luck. He dropped the price five times to $583,900 and would be happy simply to break even.
“I can’t unload the thing,” Holmes said. “In eight months, I’ve had zero offers. No one even showed up to the open houses. Nobody.”
Across much of Florida and especially along the western coast, a surplus of inventory and dwindling buyer interest are slowing sales and keeping homes on the market longer. That is cooling off what had been one of America’s biggest housing booms this decade.
“It’s definitely been a sizable increase over the last couple of years in inventory, and that sets us apart from other states,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors. “We could see some price deterioration in some areas.” [Uh… like everywhere ]
Insurance premiums in Florida are up as much as 400% over the past five years in certain areas, one of the fastest increases in the country.
They are bound to become even steeper following this hurricane season. Hurricane Helene could result in more than $15 billion in property damage, Moody’s Analytics said.
“People are making different choices as a result of the rise in insurance costs,” said Katherine Frattarola, who runs HUB Private Client. Her firm advises wealthy homeowners.
What’s Next?
Even under the best of scenarios as to where Milton hits, there will be catastrophic damage somewhere unless the Hurricane de-intensifies soon.
Homeowners without both wind and flood insurance are going to have their claims denied or trivialized.
Insurance costs will soar, and I would not be surprised to see insurers throw in the towel completely.
Hard to know what to say other than: Please evacuate, best wishes, and good luck.
Hmmm, no mention of the huge increase in mortgage interest rates and the inflation rate since 2021, and the resulting reduction in demand. I wonder why?
Your comment is so stupid I almost deleted it.
But OK, I am curious – Please propose a “why”
And by the way, I have discussed inflation countless times as well as mortgage rates.
Follow the storm on windy.com…
https://www.windy.com/?26.132,-88.228,7
Nobody is talking about sea-view.
Like a fiscal spending bazooka!
Ah, the love of money and possessions, which possess the lover. ☮️✝️
It will be bad but mainly property damage. Katrina was different. There are so many poor people in New Orleans, mainly service industry jobs with little to no means to pack up and go. Also the reporting on storm surges now is far superior. Poor and ignorant can see what a 3-13 foot surge looks like. Any 5 year old can understand that graphic demo that mommy and daddy need to get me outta here.
It was different, but not in the way you describe. The bulk of the trouble with Katrina wasn’t the hurricane itself, but the levy/flood wall breaches leading to a filling of the soup bowl (land below sea level). Of course failures should have been widely anticipated and evacuations more thorough, but that’s a separate issue.
https://eng-resources.charlotte.edu/failurecasestudies/dam-failure-cases/new-orleans-hurricane-katrina-levee-failures/
Now that home prices have exploded in FL, does this put any insurers in the path of bankruptcy? Yet another reason the government shouldn’t be trying to artificially pump up shelter costs. In fact — they should be doing the opposite. They should roll back the FHFA conforming loan limit, and phase out investor tax breaks for home *ownership* and shift those tax breaks to home *builders*. Even better, get rid of 80% of requirements, fees, and regulations for home construction.
The correct date of the highest surge is 1848 when the Great Gale of 1848 hit Tampa Bay with a 15-foot surge.
The Hurricane of 1921 had the second highest at 11 feet.
It has been 176 years since a hurricane as strong as Milton hit Tampa Bay.
The X post incorrectly calls it the Tampa Bay hurricane; reference the front page article of 1848 which calls it the Great Gale.
I’m going to post another reference that correctly names the 1848 storm as the Great Gale of 1848.
On the plus side, you now have the correct highest surge (15 feet) and its date (1848).
Everyone, please correct the misinformation that the Hurricane of 1921 was the highest surge.
FYI, I’m a former researcher for the New York Times and the Miami Herald.
https://x.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1843277566003548386
Wow. 25miles 12ft diff!
Here’s something else that is SURGING
Electric vehicle (EV) insurance premiums are set to soar under a regime shake-up, it has been warned.
Insurance premiums for EVs and Chinese-made cars in particular could skyrocket after a new Vehicle Risk Rating (VRR) system was rolled out last month, an expert said.
VRR will eventually replace the group-based system of insurance, which bands vehicles into 50 separate premium categories.
Five key categories go into the VRR rating, including performance, damageability, safety, security – and “repairability”.
It is this last category that will send EV premiums soaring, Chris Rosamond of Auto Express magazine said, because the insurance industry lacks the information it needs to offer lower premiums on EVs.
Mr Rosamond said: “If the data does show… as many or most of us expect, that there is this increased risk around batteries, then it’s likely that will emerge in, or be reflected in, premiums down the track.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/07/electric-car-insurance-premiums-set-to-soar/
Over to Jeff Green ….
electric vehicles are a special use vehicle for the foreseeable future. a scaled up battery operated toy car isn’t useful since we already have a petroleum based vehicle industry with replacement parts, fueling stations, etc.
EV’s use the already maxed out power grid, are useless in any prolonged emergency, and without government (taxpayer) subsidies expensive indulgence for people with impaired reasoning skills.
I can only imagine how long, how hot and how terrible an EV Semi truck, hauling a cargo of EV batteries in a critical accident would be.
we need less points of failure in our transportation systems, not more.
Ev’s are the opposite of robust and failure resistant transportation nodes.
Here is an interesting wind graphic of the world.
I have no idea what that circulation is off of the east coast of Florida, but it sure doesn’t look good in conjunction with Milton out in the Gulf of Mexico. Perfect storm??
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-83.18,24.74,2387/loc=-81.813,21.763
That disturbance will not interact with Milton.
From the NHC-
Western Atlantic Gales (AL93):
A 1002 mb low pressure near 29N72W is producing gale force winds
SE of the low as confirmed by overnight scatterometer data. Gale
force winds will continue to move along the low through Thu when
the low moves N of the forecast waters. Seas will be 8 to 14 ft
within the vicinity of the low through the next day, then slowly
subside as the low weakens Thu into Fri. Although environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional
development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could
form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to
east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are
forecast to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances
for further development.
Thanks!
There may be less home inventory in Florida in a few days.
This is a graphic for storm surge inundation from the National Hurricane Center.
You can manipulate your mouse and scroll to enlarge for a better view.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212734.shtml?inundation#contents
How f789ed is China? Hurricanes are nothing compared to what is smashing china… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq0DsioVmls
If Milton does as much damage as what everyone seems to think it’s capable of, we may be at the tipping point of insurance companies pulling out of coastal cities. If you’re house isn’t at least 5 miles inland, you might not be able to get or afford insurance in Florida within the next few years.
China’s Cocaine Rally Needs Another LineHong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunges 9.5% as investors dump shareshttps://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/chinas-cocaine-rally-needs-another
Hey Mish, how do you feel about the amount of racists, science deniers and outright lunatics that hang out at the comment session?
Are you referring to the science deniers who believe man is wrecking the climate… and who believe we can power the world with solar panels and windmills… while driving EVs?
Eddy the coward! When are you going to give us all your prediction for Permian production a year from now. We will compare our predictions to see who is right.
You keep saying that Permian production is crashing. While actual production numbers are going up. I want to see how much you think Permian production will drop in the next year. If your prediction is correct, you can lord that over me for the next year. I will have no choice but to admit you were right about the Permian.
What’s stopping you from giving your prediction? Are you afraid you will look stupid?
I am busy contemplating your claim that adding pipelines increases the amount of oil in a reservoir…
As you can imagine that is a difficult concept to get ones mind around… it’s using up all my RAM.
Once I come to grips with that I’ll look into when the Permian will peak… and join the rest of the world’s oil supplieshttps://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/
Lol! I made no such claim. You did! And when I laughed at you, you were so embarrassed that you tried to say that I made the claim. And I’m still laughing at you. You coward.
I will repeat the question.
If you think Permian production is crashing, then why are they building more pipelines, such as the recently completed Matterhorn pipeline, to take away more oil?
You still haven’t answered this question. Nor have you answered my other question: what will Permian production be in 12 months time?
Come on coward! Quit making feeble excuses. They only make you look weak and stupid. Like ”using up my RAM”
Hahahaha! What a loser!
Yes Dave… of course more pipelines will refill the depleting shale oil fields… everyone knows that.
Maybe they can add more pipelines to refill the conventional oil fields? https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-extinction-plan-uep
Next question.
Lol! Sorry Eddy. Your answer is still incorrect. For your information, pipelines are built to take oil and gas away from shale oil fields. Not to refill them.
But now that you have answered my question incorrectly for the second time, let’s move on to the question you are still so afraid to answer.
What will Permian oil production be in 12 months?
Come on coward. Give me your prediction for Permian production in 12 months time. Then I will give you my prediction and we will see who is correct. I am anxious to see your number, given how you keep telling everyone that Permian production is crashing.
i’m assuming everyone on this site are grown adults. this talk of calling out folks as cowards over a not so important issue like amount of oil in one part of world, seems quite hysterically juvenile. it’s very entertaining. don’t stop. please. question for all. anyone believe OIL might be abiogenic? and not fossil biogenic
“ i’m assuming everyone on this site are grown adults.“
Nope.
Some here are cult conspiracy morons. Some are just f*cking idiots. And Fast Eddy is a coward. And some of us are assholes who get fed up with the cult conspiracy morons and f*cking idiots and cowards.
Now, to answer your other question:
The vast majority of the world’s oil is fossil biogenic.
There is some evidence to support the idea that there might also be some abiogenic oil, but there is no evidence to indicate that there would be very much of it, even if it were true.
Hope that helps.
Most here are ego driven fools who identify with thier arguments (i.e. thier thought stream). To lose an argument is death to the ego (the self) and we can’t have that now can we Fast Eddy, PapaDave, MPOv45, etc, etc? That’s why the unconcious arguing goes on and on and on here. There’s rarely any agreement or resolution amongst the lot of you. Mish makes a post that is promptly followed by more pointless arguing in the comments. That assumes you all aren’t just trolls who are arguing in bad faith. You’d think that by now you knuckleheads would grow tired of this twaddle and find something better to do, but nope. It’s like listening to a bunch of narcissistic miserable middle-aged women bitch and moan about thier 1st world problems. No self awareness and completely outta touch.
Who’s running the show in your heads? Your ego driven emotions or rational consciousness? I’ll take the former for $2,000 Alex. Good grief!!!
Correct.
“ Mish makes a post that is promptly followed by more pointless arguing in the comments.”
Which is why I only comment on some threads. I don’t have as much time for pointless arguments as others.
And Mish seems to appreciate my
comments even if others do not:
“ People don’t always agree with PD, including me, but he is consistent and I believe fair.”
I like you PD, I truly do, but you still can’t see the forest for the trees.
“You’d think that by now you knuckleheads would grow tired of this twaddle and find something better to do, but nope.”
Hey, Woodsie, how’s this post any different from what you’re complaining about?
Hypocrisy, bro!
No hypocrisy here. I’m simply pointing out that the usual suspects argue about the same dumb shit (rarely agreeing) and say virtually the same things over and over and over again depending on the topic of Mish’s post. It’s pathetic and clearly shows that people are driven more by their ego than by their conscious mind.
Whoa! What did I do? I’m not even part of this discussion. I am here for the economic data that will lead me to profits, that’s it.
I’ve stopped responding to Fast Eddy myself because it’s all crackpot conspiracy theory nonsense. I wish we had the ignore button back, it helped tremendously. You’d be on the ignore list Woodsie since your comments add zero value to profit mindset.
I don’t think being anti-illegal immigrant makes people racist. Countries all around the globe are struggling with over immigration.
Personally, I don’t deny climate change exists, but I do think modern satellites, computers & electronic measuring devices are making our determination of climate change much more accurate and precise than it has been in the past. I also recognize that we can’t crash our economy to try to save the planet. China & India certainly aren’t going to.
I support Israel’s right to defend itself from radical Islamic terrorists who are the real lunatics.
Liberals are the ones who have turned into the party of lunatics embracing lawfare, reverse anti-white racism / DEI practices, big government, censorship, ant-2A, higher taxes, & globalism.
Hey man! I resemble that remark! Don’t worry, though, I have nothing against midgets.
Did you parrot “safe and effective?” Dr. Robert Malone said that at the top, “science is about money and power.” Democrat politicians are obsessed with race. Critical Race Theory is racist, as is DEI.
No worries, Kamala has us covered with $750 per victim. Or free food and shelter for as long as you need it plus a $25,000 down payment towards a new home if you’re an illegal alien.
Just as in Maui. Americans are only entitled to the residual leftovers after Ukraine, illegals, Israel from the Democrats perspective. Amazing anyone would vote for them.
St George Utah and Boise Idaho are similar in Natural Disaster potential.
Very little.
Best wishes and safety to our friends in Florida!
There is silver lining. GDP will look better.
Don’t make me look it up, but I read somewhere that Florida is actually sinking, and is a doomed Atlantis.
Correct. There are a lot of places in the world where the land is subsiding (sinking), and Florida is one of them. “Parts” of Florida are subsiding as much as 0.5 millimetres per year. Which makes sea level rise of 1.7 mm per year even worse.
Some places in the world are subsiding as much as 20 mm per year. Most of those are in Asia.
Subsidence is a result of the withdrawal of water from underground aquifers. The more water withdrawn, the more the land above the aquifer sinks.
The Ogallala Aquifer is beneath 8 states. There are areas above the aquifer where the land has subsided over 12 feet since 1940.
Take a look at the photo on this site:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Approximate-location-of-maximum-measured-subsidence-9-m-in-the-San-Joaquin-Valley_fig1_262618065
Not to mention the saltwater intrusion.
Perturbing aquifers from equilibrium causes multiple problems.
Correct. Salt water intrusion is also harming aquifers. And rising sea levels is hastening the intrusion.
Natural disasters are becoming too common, and too costly. Yields on MBS are way too low, when mortgage collateral value can easily be cut in half by an uncontrollable, and increasingly common, event.
“Ah Capitain, all the gold is loaded that we took from the indigeous people. It is a good day to sail back to Spain.” Too bad for this crew Queen Isabel didn’t buy Musk’s Starlink so her ships could avoid the Miltons of the South Atlantic.
It’s too bad about Tampa; it’s one of the most desirable areas of the United States to live in. Not a ton of Latinos, and the weather is damn-near perfect. Plus, AFAIK, there’s not a lot of hurricane activity … normally. Which brings us to this post.
Climate change advocates say the hurricanes are only getting worse. But we’re building in hurricane-prone areas. Is it any surprise that the news is filled with reports of hurricane-gale winds and flooded areas? People are living in places where they’ve never lived before in large numbers. Beachfront property is especially desired.
No, we’re suffering from an optics delusion. The storms are as they always were; the reporting is more intense than it ever was. A hurricane is an anchorman’s wet dream.
And besides that, if you can afford a home, I have little sympathy for you.
— Greg (my blog: dark.sport.blog)
You are contradicting yourself.
You said not a lot of hurricanes in Tampa. So they built there. Now you are saying don’t build there?
And North Carolina isn’t beachfront property and it got hit hard. Are you saying they shouldn’t build in NC?
I grew up in that area and I’m not going to get political What I experienced I was there under the administration of Pam Iorio mayor of Tampa 2003-11 Again I’m not going to get political; she was advocating for the entire bay area to get together to talk about transportation issues basically she said unless we change from where we’re going on now with never-ending cars we’re going to be a mess. And now it’s a mess No public transport clogged highways etc. She was ignored and the car dealers and the developers took over and trashed the state
So much for the state income tax “savings”.
ty Mish
Greedy idiots ck this out
https://imgur.com/a/gyKasRG
Minor error: “If 3.2 million live in Tampa and 1/3 of them are in the surge zone that means over a million homes will be hard hit..”
A million people, perhaps, but not a full million homes… don’t forget household size.
Also, not everyone living in surge zone is living at ground level. Residents of taller buildings may be counted as “living in the surge zone”, but provided the building doesn’t topple, only the lower floors will get flooded.
excellent catch, those are valid caveats that must be considered in any model or prediction..
If you don’t have flood insurance you will get nothing
Standard Florida home insurance policies do not cover flooding. You must purchase it separately, if you can find it, and afford it.
If you live in a designated flood zone you must purchase flood insurance if you have a mortgage.
The only people without are people who have paid off in full and trying to go on the cheap. They will be wiped out.
Incidentally one of my best friends lives in Madeira Beach. His house already flooded 5 feet from Helene so whatever happens now doesn’t make much difference since the house was already going to be torn down to the studs to rebuild.
Many of these homes have it through nfip. It’s capped at 250k. A total loss is way more than that
Since this will be the second flood on the same house, will they be able to claim for $500k?
Yep. I have friend in Naples. Modest home bought in the late 1960s by his parents, one block from trendy 5th Street and a few houses from the Gulf. The house was swamped with 4 ft. of water during Hurricane Ian. Federal flood insurance paid out the $250K maximum. House is valued at over $6 million and its nothing special. It was just remodeled after the storm. The house may take another hit with Milton not too far away.
Good post Mish. Hopefully the recent dip south in the projected track will spare Tampa. Though it looks like it might hit Sarasota square on. There is still time for further track changes before it hits.
Either way, as you say, Florida is just one more place that is becoming unliveable as global warming and climate change continue to worsen.
Yes as it moves south it makes me more and more nervous in West Palm that it will skip across the state and hit us. Right now it’s on track to go about 50-80 miles north which will spare us everything but some rain and tropical storm winds. But a slight move south could come right on top of us.
Unfortunately it is going to hit someone hard. Good luck.
May or may not help your state of mind, but here is a site that overlays the NHC forecast on select satellite imagery so you can see eye wobbles and position relative to the official forecast (1km vis is only a daytime product, but can be mesmerizing)
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=14L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=111110000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF