Update: This will be a Live Post for a few hours at least. I will post addendums at the TOP. 1.4 million homes & businesses are already without power.
8:14 PM Eastern Nowcast
(MAX WINDS) Here are the max wind gusts recorded so far. Several wind observations over 100 mph: Skyway Fishing Pier, Egmont, & Bradenton Beach.
➡️ Significant tree & structure damage is occurring right now across (mainly western) Tampa Bay.
➡️ 1.4 million homes & businesses are already without power. It could take weeks to restore power.
Five New Videos
4 PM Eastern Nowcast
(NOWCASTING – 4PM) If #Milton stays on the current trajectory it will move into the Bradenton/Anna Maria area.
🌀There was a sharp turn toward the east around 2pm
🌀The severity of that turn has moderated. The storm is now moving with a slightly more northerly trajectory.
🌀These type of wobbles are expected & are important in the ultimate landfall location.
🌀We’ve established how incredibly important the precise landfall will be for storm surge, etc. Everyone 40 miles south of the landfall will have 10+ storm surge.
Compare the above path to the one immediately below the line.
Previous Full Post Below This Line
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Tampa gets some welcome news as Hurricane Milton path shifts. But flooding will still be massive, and Milton has spawned an unprecedented number of tornadoes already.
Meteorologist Bryan Bennett @weatherbryan is the best one to follow on Twitter/X. I would like to embed his Tweets, but X embeds are now so unstable that I have to link to them and copy text or images.
Twelve Tornadoes
The count is actually much higher based on other reports I am reading.
Tampa Spared of Surge, but What About Rain?
TROJAN HORSE? With focus on surge & wind, discussion of rainfall has kind of taken a back seat. But we are looking at 10-20″ of rain to fall in an area just north of the center of #Milton.
💧St. Petersburg, Tampa, & Orlando will be near or in this extremely heavy band of consistent rain.
💧WInd shear is making the storm a little lopsided, so the heaviest rain will be on the northern side of the storm.
💧The storm is slowing down which will bring a slightly longer period of time for water to accumulate.
💧Expect urban and countryside flooding overnight. Evacuate to higher ground if you are in a spot where freshwater flooding has been an issue in the past.
Likely Landfall Near Sarasota
(NOWCASTING – 2:30pm) #Milton just took a SHARP turn to the east northeast.
🌀 As of 2pm, the storm was still moving north & a Pinellas landfall was starting to look more likely. Most meteorologists were about to revise the forecast & ramp up surge predictions for the Bay.
🌀 BUT, with the sharp turn at 2pm a landfall near Sarasota is remaining the most likely landfall projection. Bringing catastrophic surge to Venice, Manasota, etc.
🌀 If the storm travels on this trajectory for another hour or two it will be almost impossible to hit Pinellas.
🌀 Milton is now going to slow down, which will prolong hurricane conditions & increase accumulated rainfall.
Max Winds
(MAX WINDS) Just about ALL of the Tampa Bay area is going to receive hurricane force winds tonight. Coastal areas near #Milton’s center will be up to 135 mph.
IMPORTANT WIND THRESHOLDS:
⚠️70-95 mph: Older mobile (pre 1994) homes destroyed, damage to shingles, vinyl siding, carports, lanais, awnings. Broken windows on higher floors of condos (windward side). Large branches & shallow rooted trees toppled. Extensive damage to power lines.
⚠️96-110 mph: Poorly constructed homes will loose roofs, high probability of broken windows, windows in high-rises often broken by flying debris, Many shallow rooted trees snapped or uprooted. Numerous roads blocked. Near total power loss. Potable water will be scarce.
⚠️111-130 mph: Old & new mobile homes will be destroyed. All unprotected windows will break, unless specialized to be hurricane proof. Siding & roof damage to well built homes. Many trees snapped or uprooted. Electricity & water will be unavailable for days to weeks.
CONCERNS:
⚠️I’ve heard several people say they are staying in their 5+story condo/apartment because they feel that they are safe from surge. Perhaps, but the windows have a high chance of breaking. It’s scary at the very least to be in a high-level windowless unit. Please evacuate condos, as well, in evacuation zones.
⚠️Soggy soil from a day of rain will lead to even more uprooted trees. Power outages are going to widespread & possibly out for weeks. Emergency vehicles will not be able to reach anyone due to blocked roads.
⚠️Debris is a large culprit behind broken windows & human/animal casualties. We have an abundance of outdoor debris in Tampa Bay due to Helene a week ago. This is almost unprecedented.
Please stay safe everyone! Follow NHC & local officials’ guidance.
Bottom Line 1:00 PM (Three Hours Ago)
BOTTOM LINE:
➡️ The hurricane is encountering some wind shear & dry air which has knocked it down to a Cat 4. It will not regain Cat 5 status.
➡️ I anticipate the hurricane to make landfall as a low end Cat 4 or a high end Cat 3 between 10pm & 4am tonight.
➡️ The model spread has reduced to only a 30 mile range from southern Pinellas to Central Sarasota Co. This will be the last model outlook that I show. I will be nowcasting until landfall.
➡️ Based on nowcasting, the storm is currently staying right on track for a landfall just north of Sarasota. But, it’s going to need to start a more easterly trajectory over the coming hours if it’s going to go south of the Bay.
➡️ A landfall just north of Sarasota appears most likely, BUT a southern Pinellas landfall can’t be completely ruled out. As previous mentioned, a Pinellas landfall will bring surge up to 13 feet into the Bay (downtown Tampa, downtown St. Pete, etc)
FORECAST:
➡️ Landfall: The strongest winds in coastal Tampa Bay will be between 7pm & 3am, with landfall occurring around midnight.
➡️ Sustained Winds: Expect sustained winds between 115 & 135 mph along unimpeded coastal Tampa Bay (aka. at the beach or Bay)
➡️ Wind Gusts: Anna Maria & Sarasota 130 mph, Siesta Key 135 mph, St. Petersburg 105 mph, Clearwater 105 mph, Tampa 90 mph, Lakeland 85 mph, Orlando 65 mph.
➡️ Rain: 10-20 inches between Pinellas County, along the I4 corridor, to Orlando.
Bottom Line:
➡️ This is a very dangerous triple threat storm with surge, wind, & rain. It’s not too late to evacuate, but the time is ticking. Please follow guidance from local officials and the NHC
Links to Twitter Posts that Won’t Embed
- 17 Active Tornadoes Video
- No I really mean Over 50 Tornadoes Image
- From October 4 Baby Sucked out of Window and Survives Video
One year old sucked out of home by tornado in #tennessee during #helene along with the father. The entire family survived. Baby found high up in tree, alive.
Assume Climate Change is 100 Percent Manmade, OK Address My 8 Points
If you wish to politicize this as “Climate Change” and demand action, then OK.
I am game as long as you address this post: Assume Climate Change is 100 Percent Manmade, OK Address My 8 Points
Go ahead.
New Zealand Panics
This is stagflation on steroids
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/new-zealand-panics
Has nothing to do with the subject, as usual. You should start your own blog. ALthough you might be the only reader.
It has everything to do with everything … collapse is imminent
I suppose, on some truly deep level, everything does have everything to do with everything….
Debates conducted at an abstraction level quite that high, is best left for Gods, though…
For us of more limited abilities wrt the size universes we can simultaneously keep top-of-mind and realistically reason about: There is something to be said for staying slightly closer to the straight and narrow…
As someone that grew up on Siesta Key, I know my hometown will never be the same, but the last thing that anyone should be contemplating is this hurricane was spawned by gloBull warming. Yes, the Nutjobs have NO solution even if gloBull warming was real, but the bigger issue, as pointed out in the video, is how much brain power and resources are wasted chasing windmills, instead of reorganizing the debt and preparing for the next cooling cycle that brings with it crop failures, famine, and plagues.
There’s tons of evidence that shows we are exiting the latest warming cycle, which was lower than the two previous ones, and CO2 is vital for vegetation and near all time lows, but all one needs to have is perspective. When the pundits say this is the worst hurricane in 100 years or 500 years, does anyone ask, what was man making 100-500 years ago that could have caused these historical disasters, which killed far more people even though the coasts are much more populated now?
You will never convince those brainwashed by ideologic subversion using logic or facts. It will only be the school of hard knocks or a baseball bat to the back of the head from the Invisible Hand that wakes people up.
Oh stop it with the breathless tornado crap. Hurricanes are nothing more than organized large thunderstorms that rotate around an eye. Where did you think tornadoes come from? Hint: Thunderstorms. Yes, there are tornadoes with this one, as there are with EVERY hurricane.Sheesh.
No, a hurricane is not a large thunderstorm. No, there are not tornadoes with every hurricane. They are not uncommon, but they do not occur with every landfalling tropical system. Francine was notably lacking any reports.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/240911_rpts.html
Agree that there is unnecessary hype and the tweets from Bryan Bennett are over the top.
There is nothing being covered in the media today other than hurricane porn. SAD!
Maybe enjoy some comic wildlife photos instead?
Excellent narrative of events.
Chiming in from Orlando. Started to receive heavy rain sweeping in from the north at about 4:15PM….a bit gusty, but not too bad. Ground is saturated from rain since Monday. Large puddles on the golf course I am overlooking. Don’t think that we will be seeing the severe winds as it looks like the eye may pass well south of Orlando (Orange County) and probably rip thru Osceola County (Kissimmee) and onwards towards Melbourne/Cocoa Beach on the Atlantic coast.
There’s only one way to defeat this climate change: All democrats must swear off ever taking a plane again.
Just north of Sarasota here, should be safe from the storm surge. I’ll let you know how it goes if I retain power.
TL – See My Latest Update
Just North of Sarasota now projected to be a terrible spot.
Best wishes.
In the eye now, landfall at Siesta Key, ok for now