A Budget Showdown Between Republicans and Democrats Looms, Who Will Prevail?

McCarthy Renews Calls for Spending Cuts to Raise Debt Ceiling

The Wall Street Journal reports McCarthy Renews Calls for Spending Cuts to Raise Debt Ceiling

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) said Sunday he would seek to negotiate with President Biden over raising the federal debt ceiling but renewed his calls for cuts in spending, days after the Treasury Department said the government may not be able to pay its bills by early summer.

“Let’s sit down together. Let’s look at the places that we can change our behavior,” Mr. McCarthy said in an interview on Fox News. “Why would we sit back and be so arrogant to say, ‘No, there’s no waste in government?’”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday called on Congress to raise the debt ceiling as quickly as possible. She said the government would hit the roughly $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Jan. 19, when Treasury will begin implementing so-called extraordinary measures to manage the government’s cash flow that are expected to last at least until early June. Republicans, who recently took control of the House, have insisted that any increase of the debt limit include cuts in spending, a demand that many Democrats reject. The White House has called on Congress to raise the debt ceiling without conditions.

“There’s going to be no negotiation over it. This is something that must get done,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Friday, noting that lawmakers have previously increased the debt ceiling on a bipartisan basis.

“It is one of the basic items that Congress has to deal with, and it should be done without condition,” she said. 

Yellen’s Letter to Congress

“While Treasury is not currently able to provide an estimate of how long extraordinary measures will enable us to continue to pay the government’s obligations, it is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June,” Ms. Yellen wrote to Congressional leaders. 

Question of the Day

When does McCarthy buckle on the debt ceiling?

Sooner, later, or not at all? 

My guess is at the last minute, possibly even after the last minute when some closures happen.  

I rather doubt Democrats will give an inch. If not, McCarthy likely to be humiliated.

 This post originated at MishTalk.Com

Please Subscribe!

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish 

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

70 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
We will find out if the right wing of the Republican party really owns McCarthy or not.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
kabucki theatre. anyone who still falls for this charade in 2023, really is quite naive.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
The banks might extract their RRP and excess reserves to increase assets. The front end is anchored. The middle and the long duration might rise and normalized. The cost of financing gov debt will rise. GDP might rise faster than the cost of interest. If interest/GDP rise faster it’s either due to higher inflation or lower GDP in recession, while the Fed stay the course, don’t cut interest rates.
amalagoli
amalagoli
1 year ago
These clowns make a big noise about cutting the budget, but then they would still vote to increase defense spending and to prohibit Medicare from bargaining on medication prices. Their idea of cutting the budget is to eliminate all benefits and all public education as their fascist billionaire donors want.
Directed Energy
Directed Energy
1 year ago
What a ridiculous position to be in. Social security is not an entitlement, everybody pays into it. Not only should it not be touched, it should be vastly increased.
Defense spending is another ridiculous item to ponder cutting right now, it should be vastly increased too. China’s foaming at the mouth when it comes to passing this country, they would just absolutely love for us to cut the budget. Not to mention the fact that defense spending literally supports hundreds of thousands of jobs!
NO CUTS!
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
I agree.
Everything should be increased by a lot more.
And, new free stuff should be added for everyone.
The sooner the better.
Directed Energy
Directed Energy
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
I didn’t mean it like that. SS and defense are unique, not welfare.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Not everyone pays into it.
Many government jobs don’t pay into it because they don’t collect (they get guaranteed government pensions instead)
Also people who don’t work (housewives, welfare etc) don’t pay into it but they certainly can collect it.
Lastly no one pays into it anywhere CLOSE to what they collect from it unless they die very soon after starting to collect (like 3-5 years after starting). So if you want to increase the payout you have to increase the amount collected which isn’t going to go over well with the people currently paying in.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Retire early, accumulate more from the gov, because the front end of the SS will have higher value than the deflated 20y/30y long duration.
Directed Energy
Directed Energy
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
If a percent or 2 increase helps, I say go for it. Removing the income cap helps as well. Perhaps people over a certain income such as $10 million could pitch in more as well. I’m not for unfair taxation but there is no doubt the current setup is out of balance.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
There aren’t enough folks paying in and there isn’t going to be enough folks paying in in the future.
This will eventually become a real problem.
LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Hi Tim. i think there are only 9 states that do not pay into social security and then have to deal with the WEP & GPO offset.
Agree with your concerns on SS . I think they are going to raise the retirement age again, but also, up the SS base to maybe 500K instead of current $160,200
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Increase stimmies, invade Moskva.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
We need to spend more than 10x what China spends. Or else we have no chance of winning a war against them. Even then, the chances of winning are slim.
Directed Energy
Directed Energy
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Interesting if there would ever be a true winner or loser. I couldn’t see either side surrendering, even if both capitols were destroyed. Probably end up with a situation like Man in the High Castle.
I don’t want to see the American standard of living decline anymore. Something’s going to break someday
Counter
Counter
1 year ago
My biggest gainers are energy and resources
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
The only expense untouchable in the budget is interest.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
And it’s starting to shoot up quite nicely to the tune of $718B last year. $900B is a real possibility this year. FY 2024 puts $1T into a real possibility if we don’t have a recession followed by a Fed pivot.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
Reply to  worleyeoe

Economics is a science of lies. The FED’s monetary transmission mechanism only became interest rate manipulation after legal reserves were discontinued. By tracking legal reserves, all recessions were both predictable and preventable.

We knew this already:

In 1931 a commission was established on Member Bank Reserve Requirements. The commission completed their recommendations after a 7 year inquiry on Feb. 5, 1938. The study was entitled “Member Bank Reserve Requirements — Analysis of Committee Proposal”

its 2nd proposal: “Requirements against debits to deposits”
Member Bank Reserve Requirements: Analysis of Committee Proposal, Box 107 (stlouisfed.org)

After a 45 year hiatus, this research paper was “declassified” on March 23, 1983. By the time this paper was “declassified”, Nobel Laureate Dr. Milton Friedman had declared RRs to be a “tax” [sic].

Now the FED is without a rudder or an anchor. Presumably, to get a recession, there would have to be a marked reduction (negative rate-of-change) in short-term money flows (“M” as defined by Shadow Stats).

Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
I used to say I didn’t need a “disclaimer”.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
After 20y in a trading range interest rates payments/Real GDP are breaking out. It might be tested, before moving higher.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
R-gDp broke out because of the drop in money demand. As Alfred Marshall’s “cash balances” explains, money is truly a paradox – by wanting more the public ends up with less, and by wanting less it ends up with more.
The length of the period over whose transactions purchasing power in the form of money is held is a function of the volume of cash held and the level of prices, ergo, the velocity of circulation.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
“According to Alfred Marshall’s “cash balances” type of analysis, the value of money or its reciprocal, the price level, depends upon the supply of and the demand for money. The equilibrium concept presumes that the height of prices at any given time is determined at a level which just equates the supply schedule and the demand schedule of money.
Over a period of time, however, it is just as logical, and justifiable, to say that prices determine the supply of and the demand for money as to say the converse. The price of money and the price of wheat are, at any given time, the net resultant of the forces operating through supply and demand, but over a period of time price is both cause and effect in determining the price of wheat or the price of money.
Unlike the supply and demand analysis applicable to commodities, the supply of and the demand for money are simply two sides of the same “coin”. This follows from the fact that the suppliers are simultaneously the demanders, and the demanders are simultaneously the suppliers If a person increases his demand form money, he is simultaneously reducing his supply of money, in the schedule sense, and if he is increasing the supply of money, he is reducing his demand for money. It may be said therefore, that an increase in the demand for money is concomitantly associated with an equal and opposite decrease in the supply of money, and vice versa.
Thus, we may say that the prices of things will rise, ceteris paribus, and the purchasing [power of money will fall, if there is an increase in the supply of money (decreased demand for money). Similarly, the expectation of a rise in the price of things will induce a decrease in the demand for money (increase in the supply of money).” — Dr. Leland James Pritchard, Ph.D. Economics, Chicago 1933, M.S. Statistics, Syracuse, Phi Beta Kappa
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Just so I have this straight.
Before 19 January The US Treasury can just dump cash on whatever the US Congress has already borrowed money for.
After 19 January the US Treasury will actually have to look closely at what the cash is being spent on.
Like us non-politicians do.
shamrock
shamrock
1 year ago
I don’t think there have been any spending cuts since the Clinton years. So please, go ahead and propose some specific cuts.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  shamrock
Cut SS to millionaires. Cut COLA to zero with negative CPI. Trim defense. Increase weapons production for other nations. Force them to pay.
Increase real wages to extract people on disability, SS, SNAP, housing… Collect student loans. Cut woke colleges. Cut the bloated veterans benefits. Put a muzzle on war mongers. Force a ceasefire in Ukraine. Produce minis that power underwater drones…build a wall, raise tariffs !!
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Cut real monies already budgeted, not proposed increases for next year.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
The UNIPARTY, obviously!
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
This is what always happens. They can only pay essential personnel. Which are the contractors by and large. Particularly IT workers. Government employees are furloughed and don’t get paid. At least not when they normally do. The essential personnel are restricted with what they can work on. They can only maintain things. Not enhance anything. They have to maintain systems whose users aren’t working because they’ve been furloughed. So IT managers have to invent things for their employees to do so when they submit their monthly reports, they look like they were doing something. The employees read things like SQL Server 2005 manuals. Or at least pretend to. The government employees get a free vacation since they’ll eventually get all their back pay. All the while complaining about how terrible the situation is for them. Eventually, when the impasse looks like it might cost votes, the debt ceiling is raised. Calling it a debt ceiling is absurd. it should be called a debt target.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Only the good contractors are reading manuals. The busy work folks are taking on-line training from HR for Social Responsibility and Gender Equality and Sexual Harassment.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
The good contractors keep clicking next during the training until they get to the quiz, where they have 10 chances to answer the multiple choice question with 5 possible answers. Wouldn’t shock me if some government employees failed the quiz.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Thought crimes!
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
My amusing comments are based on facts from 100 years ago. Four deep recessions in the 1920’s. Wilson and his collapse copper kings and Liberty bonds.
President Harding, a guy from rural Ohio, a ladies man, who was elected in rd 10, put Andrew Mellon in the treasury (1923 and 1932). President
Harding died at age 57 from heart attack. President Coolidge his vp replaced him. They cut and chopped gov budget and busted the war inflation. For Coolidge natural disasters, floods and RE collapse are state matters. They cut the Navy power and army. They didn’t stop cutting, but reboot the Fed which financed the 1920’s speculations…
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
1920. Wasn’t that when there was a recession and the Fed didn’t do anything about it and it was over and done in under a year and a half?
jivefive99
jivefive99
1 year ago
And once again 80% of Federal dollars are spent on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Interest on the debt, and Defense .. all WILDLY popular programs. Cutting foreign aid, the National Endowment for Whatever, and the thousands spent to give every illegal immigrant a house will not make even a dent.
jivefive99
jivefive99
1 year ago
He will fold just like the last time “they” folded … when the air traffic controllers wouldnt let their first-class-section planes take off fast enough to get over flyover country as fast as possible and onto Los Angeles or, in reverse, New York. Thats how it ended when Trump tried it.
whirlaway
whirlaway
1 year ago
Both sides will win. The losers will be the American people. This is how things will play out :
1. Republicans threaten to shut down the government and cut off all funding for the proxy war in Ukraine, unless the Donorcrat Party agrees to steep cuts in SS & Medicare.
2. Donorcrats freak out when they hear about… the Ukraine proxy war spending cuts. But they instead pretend to be concerned about SS & Medicare cuts (which they most certainly are not).
3. The two sides meet and the Donorcrats offer substantial, but somewhat smaller, cuts to SS & Medicare (remember 0-bama’s “Grand Bargain” of 2011?)
4. Republicans agree to the proposal and agree to raise the debt ceiling. But when the final bill is passed, somehow, tax cuts for the rich would have “mysteriously” made their way into the bill.
5. Donorcrats claim a major victory because they were able to “minimize” the cuts in SS & Medicare spending.
6. The MSM declares it is a victory for “bipartisanship”.
Matt3
Matt3
1 year ago
Oh my! A government shutdown would kill us all. What would we do with out our masters guiding us?
It’s all theater. Both parties are on the government payroll for graft and skim. Neither party wants to spend less money. The fight is over who’s donors and family’s get to skim the most. To paraphrase – It’s a big club and I’m not in it!
billybobjr
billybobjr
1 year ago
Reply to  Matt3
Thanks, someone who gets it.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Matt3
Yeah, see what happens when the handouts stop arriving.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
The handouts will continue until they have private firearms under “control.”
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Kevin McCarthy is now the Kooky Konspiracy Kaucus’s sock puppet.
billybobjr
billybobjr
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Eighty percent of the debt around 25 trillion was accumulated while Nancy was House Speaker .
inconvenient fact for you but lord help us if someone tries to rain in spending they are evil .
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  billybobjr

And? Is that supposed to be an excuse for violating the constitution by reneging on the debt?

Trailer park politics
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Trailer park politics. ROTFLMAO. Not really. Just another liberal minded Zardoz joke.
At some point, whether it’s 2023 or 2033 etc, America has its financial reckoning coming. And when it does, we’ll wish there was a trailer park politics answer, but there won’t be.
The obvious & factual point BBJr is trying to make is that NP doesn’t know how to say no. We could put McConnell in that statement as well. And let’s not put any great hope in Hakeem being any different. Fortunately, The GOP has the house for the next two years, and then The Man DeSantis comes to power. While I don’t expect him to balance the budget, I do believe he’ll make good progress at putting America on the right financial footing.
And the looking 2024 recession will go a long way towards getting rid of the dem scourge for at least 8 years.
billybobjr
billybobjr
1 year ago
Info on S&S and Medicare
As of 2021, the S&S Trust Fund contained (or alternatively, was owed) $2.908 trillion The Trust Fund is required by law to be invested in non-marketable securities issued and guaranteed by the “full faith and credit” of the federal government. These securities earn a market rate of interest.
The Medicare report projects an increase in HI Trust Fund asset reserves in 2022 as total income ($386 billion) is expected to exceed total cost ($356 billion).
A SUMMARY OF THE 2022 ANNUAL REPORTS.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
1 year ago
Reply to  billybobjr
The trust fund is an accounting fiction. SS has always been a transfer from those working to those retired. In real time.
If we want to complicate that description, we can start by noting that SS is paid for with a flat tax. But, not really. The SS flat tax money goes into the same bucket as income/corporate taxes and the broad wealth tax of money printing (AKA “borrowing”).
Jmurr
Jmurr
1 year ago
That’s easy. Republicans always cave. Usually sooner than later. Only in DC can you vote on the omnibus and then ask for budget restraint 3 weeks later.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Jmurr
These aren’t republicans. These are Kookaboos shepherding the apocalypse.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
If Gamala takeover, she and her husband will do nothing. She will do what she had done in the southern border. She will be the
new Coolidge. She and her high tech Indian gang will run the country along with wall street and the Irish gang….
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
America was ruined when they let in the damn Irish!
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
It was before that. It was the Dutch.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
I don’t think she wants to be president. When she’s sworn in she’ll have a terrified deer in the headlights look on her face.
Greenmountain
Greenmountain
1 year ago
I guess we are well pass hoping for a legislature that acts like a legislature and actually votes appropriation bills that are debated on the floor. If Mr. McCarthy is so appalled by all the wasteful spending, where has he been since 2019???? Why didn’t he find all that waste 3 years ago? A grandstander without a plan.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
The Irish quartet will run this country : Biden, JP, McC and BAC Brian Moneyham in the treasury. Jamie is too flashy. He will outshine Biden.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
The dbl McC will not buckle. They will bend the will of Chuckie. The key is what/when will happen after June 2023. Biden will blame the radical
refuseniks. The triple Irish gang – Biden, JP and McC will cut gov debt in real terms and it’s size. US 10Y might breach 5%. The banks will lend. The banks will use their RRP and excess reserves to make money. The useless idiots R might re-elect Biden, but Gamala will takeover.
TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
1 year ago
Even the stupid caucus won’t dare draw the debt ceiling idiocy out for long, and if they do…they’re the ones who will suffer just like Gingrich and co. did the last time the national “debt” issue got seriously political. The national “debt” is actually the money that has kept the private economy from swiftly falling into recession as Steve Keen has proven. I thought you said you learned alot from Steve Keen Mish. Did you forget that little detail?
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
They can, and I think they will. They are completely detached from reality, and have no idea what they would uncork.
Avery
Avery
1 year ago
Fauchi has already fixed Social Security and Medicare.
Esclaro
Esclaro
1 year ago
Democrats should call the Republicans bluff and offer a vote on drastic cuts to SS and Medicare. Make them stand up every week and say they are in favor and then watch them get decimated in 2024.
billybobjr
billybobjr
1 year ago
Reply to  Esclaro
Apparently you don’t know Medicare is in the green and won’t turn negative till 2028 and S&S date is 2035 . This means
the trust funds technically are working off surpluses built up over the years . The government took the surpluses out
and threw in IOUs so to make the deficit less than it would have been in those years . Only Government can do this if
a private company did it it would be against the law and people would go to Jail . You and others here want to spread
garbage saying one group wants to cut benefits and so on yada yada yada . Both parties have contributed and the debt
won’t be paid back.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Reply to  billybobjr
Easy now, BBJr. It was reported last June that Medicare Part A (hospitals) will run its trust fund dry by 2026. It was also reported that Part B (doctors) ran $495B in red ink pulled from the general fund.
I do however agree with you comment about the dems spreading garbage. Within 10 years, entitlements will consume 90% of the tax revenues. At some point, everything will have to see cuts. That day is coming.
JeffD
JeffD
1 year ago
Neither side will yield, so the American people will prevail, at least in the long term.
whirlaway
whirlaway
1 year ago
Reply to  JeffD
How we wish! But, no, both sides will win. Ordinary Americans will get screwed.
garryl44
garryl44
1 year ago
My MAGA Republican neighbors simply don’t believe the Republicans will cut SS or Medicare because they don’t hear it on Newsmax or OAN and believe its campaign season BS from Dems. They are also adamantly against cuts to either and said all we have to do is eliminate food stamps and welfare for black and illegal immigrants and we would not have a budget issue. As a
Financial planner I gave up years ago trying to explain the issue to them.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  garryl44
It’s pretty strike to compare fox to the other news sites. Fox is full of clickbait and celebrity nonsense. They don’t inform… they distract
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Republican Chip Roy has a plan…. he’s making a list and checking it twice, putting social services at the bottom of payouts when the default happens and presumably US Treasurys at the top. If this happens I would assume either social security or medicare payments don’t go out or get cut then the fun really begins….
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Sorry, paywalled.
“Some Republican policy experts have been convinced such efforts would fail. Brian Riedl, a policy analyst at the Manhattan
Institute, studied prioritization plans at length while he was a staffer in the offices of then-Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). Riedl
said such a plan would involve lopping off about 20 percent of federal spending immediately, or about $1 trillion, because
revenue covers only roughly 80 percent of the $5 trillion the government spends each year. Huge numbers of people could be
hurt immediately, he said, with no good way to pick between options such as forcing hospitals to deal with the cessation of
Medicare payments or depriving the Defense Department of funding.”
billybobjr
billybobjr
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Apparently you don’t know Medicare is in the green and won’t turn negative till 2028 and S&S date is 2035 . This means
the trust funds technically are working off surpluses built up over the years . The government took the surpluses out
and threw in IOUs so to make the deficit less than it would have been in those years . They are not contributing to the debt
currently as the government has to fund the shortfall because the money that was in them was taken
and spent . Medicaid , Defense and other things are the real problem and eventually S&S and Medicare need to be dealt
with but they are down the list right now .
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  billybobjr
If there is no money for medicaid and hospitals are REQUIRED to treat patients on medicaid what do you think will happen? Hint: they will go bankrupt. you can’t provide a service then not get paid. So having medicare is irrelevant if hospitals are broke and can’t provide services. Doctors just won’t take medicare anymore, good luck finding a doctor. Do you see how it’s all intertwined and connected?
None of this bothers me, i am well over a decade+ before I can even apply for any social service and plan on moving overseas anyway so I have no use for either program.
I do know what the republican slogan will be for 2024, “No senior left behind!” because every senior will be left behind and the machine needs to convince the clueless that they are there for them.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.