Despite rumors of a big breakthrough deal, there is no deal. 
‘Productive’ U.S.-China Trade Talks
The Wall Street Journal reports Bessent Hails ‘Productive’ U.S.-China Trade Talks
The White House issued a statement after the duo’s briefing, which was titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva.”
Beijing viewed the weekend talks less as an opportunity to reset bilateral relations than as a chance to gauge whether the Trump administration intends to de-escalate current trade tensions, according to people who consult with senior Chinese officials. One of the people said Beijing wants to keep talking to bring down the tariff levels.
On Friday night, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox News that the president is expected to keep significant so-called reciprocal tariffs on trade with China but may settle near 34%, which is the rate Trump announced on April 2.
Trump has said he wants fairer trade with Beijing—the president has often criticized China’s manufacturing power—and that he wants to curb its role in fentanyl trafficking into the U.S. It is likely the U.S. would want to see some commitments from China on either front before lowering tariffs.
Key Points
- U.S. and China concluded high-level trade discussions in Geneva that U.S. officials said were ‘productive’.
- Beijing said both sides will establish an ‘economic and trade consultation mechanism’ for recurring discussions.
- Trump wants fairer trade with Beijing and to curb China’s role in fentanyl trafficking into the U.S.
Starting talks is a good sign. But it is not a deal.
Besides, no one should believe Trump will honor any deal anyway.
The BS though is rampant.
If you want to be further amused, the official White House Statement is BREAKING: U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva
Trump sets out a tease tonight. Tomorrow there will be more details. But it will take months if not years for there to be what any rational person would call a trade deal.
Related Posts
April 14, 2025: Trump’s Plan to Make Manufacturing Great Again in Pictures
The share of manufacturing employment keeps declining. What role did NAFTA play?
May 5, 2024: Movies Are Now a National Security Threat, 100 Percent Tariffs Announced
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the country, saying the U.S. movie industry was dying a “very fast death” due to the incentives that other countries were offering to draw American filmmakers.
“This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
May 9, 2025: Big Three Automakers Blast Trump’s UK Trade Deal
It only took one day for complaints to roll in. Also, Ford is hiking prices.
May 9, 2025: Trump Threatens 100 Percent Tariffs on Mattel and Barbie Dolls
Obviously, Barbie is a matter of national security, like movies and everything else.
Irony of the Year
On May 9, Trump posted on Truth Social “CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!”
For discussion of the irony of the year, please see 80 Percent Tariff on China ‘Seems Right’ Says Trump, But It’s Nearly as Stupid
An 80 percent tariff is nearly as stupid as a 145 percent tariff because most trade with China would still stop. Trade might stop at 50 percent.
And it is US consumers who pay that tariff, not China.
After ranting about “closed markets” Trump insists Barbie dolls and movies be made in the US.
You can’t make this up.
Trump is the RINO. Real conservitives need to ask the Democrats to Impeach him and then vote to get rid of him, along with the Dems.
What’s the phrase, much ado about nothing?
Indeed.
Suffering from Renfield’s syndrome sums up supporters for Globalist blood suckers.
Doom and gloomers missed latest rally completely.
I just bought ATM SPY PUTS on this “rally” for October expiry. May buy more if the rally continues but we’ll wait and see.
LOL what reason is there to be long puts when you can be short calls?
Hedging on different stocks, indices, etc. To me, this seems like easy money but we’ll find out sometime between now and October.
When I sell calls, I generally own an underlying instrument, whey I buy puts I don’t.
Short squeeze has a way to go. Lot of trapped funds been shorting risk and now they have to cover.
Bessent and company only just starting to get underway.
Tuesday CPI upcoming and am expecting a lower print then consensus as energy reduces costs. In any case Powell has been higher for longer then he should be. Market gets a whiff of lower Rates and risk assumption going uptown big time.
Thank you president Trump! 500 factories re-shored, 15 million factory jobs returned to the US due to his steadfast, risk-taking leadership.
Oh, wait none of that happened. So i guess this was all just an opportunity for him to make money on inside information he created?
which is even more annoying because he can make billions just literally asking countries like Dubai, Qatar and Vietnam to bribe him outright.
ROFLMAO. The MAGA cult is cheering like the orange messiah just cured cancer and essentially nothing has changed.
You get the second Mishelin commenter star ever given on this site!
Keep eating those bugs you can absorb their strength into your own.
Are bribes and pardon purchases included in GDP?
90 days from April 9th wasn’t it?
The caver in chief, 5 dimensions of dumb.
There is a great write-up by Michael Every on trade on his Linked-In page. Basically, full free trade is something that never was, nor was full free trade supported by libertarian icons Adam Smith and David Ricardo. Trump and Bessent are just moving us back to a more traditional place.
Yep
I agree with your reading (or using someone else’s synopsis) that Smith and Ricardo never argued for ‘complete free’ trade. Even their economic theories had practical nuance.
Now can you quote me the page or passage from either of these economic theoreticians about their thoughts on a one-man ruler unilaterally dictating the rules of trade for millions of people? And especially their thoughts on the economic validity of changing those dictated rules on an erratic and self-imposed one-man schedule?
Because I have read both men’s works. And yes, they talk some about why trade should not be completely unfettered. But they did not come close (even through implication) that Trump’s current on-off, changing the economic rules of ‘the game’ for everyone unilaterally was how to appropriately counter an unfettered market.
Nice try
Trump “Hey look! I put super glue on what I broke”
Sure the U.S. lost tons of credibility and tourism is way down, our Canadian friends no longer trust us and we are still threatening to take over Greenland, but what can we expect from a narcissistic headline seeker.
Screw this old gas bag and his bullshit tariff scaremongering.
America needs a president, not an orange haired WWE mud wrestling buffoon!
I imagine there are a lot of brokers and money mangers who told their clients to sell at the bottom blaming Trump and not themselves. I know the business and it is funny as hell. Human nature never changes.
There is always a period of high volativity before a longterm direction is established,
One of my neighbors is a night manager at the local CVS pharmacy, he told me the last shipment due for his store was short two pallet loads of goods from China and that he has been told that the usual summer supplies won’t be showing up in the usual quantities if they show up at all.
Coolers, folding chairs and the like.
198 rallies to go! Actually, like the Fed jawboning markets higher, this is no exception. Tease of a deal. Discuss details of the tease. Make announcement of progress on the teased details. It’s the market rally gift that keeps on giving. A quick 18.5% return in about 1 month, after the jawboning action of today. Sadly America, with its heavily involved 401k/IRA, now views policy only through the lens of the SP500. Pay no attention to that giant number over at usdebtclock.org.
The most salient point Mish makes is that the deal can easily be broken as evidenced by the move made that drove the markets lower in a single day. Sure, all deals, peace or trade, are tenuous but we trade and live as if they are permanent all the while its clear they are not. Papa Dave says trade it, rent the free news, own the profit forever. Gotta be cleaning up at this point.
Indeed! None of us can change what’s going on. But we can profit from the volatility. (Or we can spend all our time discussing it.) Buy the dips. Sell the rips.
What a great show!
Enjoy it!
What exactly were Americans liberated from?
Self respect? Trust? Credibility? Safety? Freedom? Habeas Corpus? The right to source materials and products at the lowest market price? The right to choose where we buy products from? The right to determine where to manufacture our products? Markets for our farm products, aircraft manufacturers, LNG exports, automobiles, spirits and more?
As a bonus, DOGE accomplished almost no savings and the economic disruptions cost tens of billions in tax revenues.
But gosh kiddies look over here, we collected $18 billion in tariffs instead of $9 billion.
I enjoyed going to a carnival when I was a child, watching our nation turn into one is disgusting.
Fire trump and his minions…
The United States will suspend its 34% reciprocal tariff imposed on April 2, 2025 for 90 days, but retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause.The 10% tariff continues to set a fair baseline that encourages domestic production, strengthens our supply chains and ensures that American trade policy supports American workers first, instead of undercutting them.=====
SO WHAT IS EFFING POINT IN ALL OF THIS??
WHY didn’t trump call to China first 1-2 month ago and suggested TALKS to solve problems??? w/out STUPID tariffs and hissy fits
jesus!!!
For the first time, I think I understand now why some liberals want to leave the country.
As crazy as that sounds, Trump is crazier. And this corrupt, no-good, rotten market is worse. Elliott wave theory would suggest that the market is merely a reflection of emotion and sentiment in the short term. If that is true, then we’re dealing with mental patients buying and selling.
There is not a “deal” only a reduction of tariffs on China, and it expires in 90 days, and its still 30% which is bad enough to halt the shipments because nobody is paying that. Nothing has changed except Trump is even crazier, as you point out, he is looking weak and like a very weak President, perhaps the weakest since Carter. There is no point to any of this if he can’t stick to his guns. So, it was all a giant episode of gaslighting for 42 days?
“Elliott wave theory would suggest that the market is merely a reflection of emotion and sentiment in the short term.”
That’s what day-trading is. Following momentum and hoping to buy/sell to someone else so one can turn a profit. “Hodlers” stick to meme stocks.
so no need for manufacturing to come back stateside and employ MAGA cult of nit wits. what’s good for wall street is good for america. we were just discussing last evening with a pack of young 30 something new york blue and white collars, how trump is just an old Dem with a more southern bigotry flavor like the old Ds half a century ago.
advanced manufacturing is coming back not the garment sweatshops you wanted or thought was coming back
I’m sure the stock market won’t fall for this “BS.” Wait, what…?
Why make a deal when Trump can juice the markets on a “Consultation Mechanism”?
This thing is far from over.
The markets are itching to go up. Just wait until there really is a deal.
Really sad to see the number of Trump haters that would cut their noses off despite their face. Many must be college students with huge tuition debt they must now pay as their sugar daddy vote buying Biden administration has passed on. Really sad to see such anti American sentiment based on nothing but baseless accusations from mainstream propaganda and stupidity of the minority of people that just can’t seem to think for themselves. Tge rest of us are voting for Trump again in the next presidential election if there is the possibility or someone that will continue to Make America Great Again. Congratulations to all of MAGA fro turning this country around and heading it in the right direction.
What “directional change” is there when Trump just completely caved and the stock market thinks we’re heading towards the status quo ante?
You’re asking questions to a certified MAGA dumb, don’t expect an intelligent answer, they think in 5 dimensions of dumb where the status quo is winning.
either that or you’re arguing with some guy getting paid 7 rubles an hour somewhere in Belarus.
You sound like you’ve been to college yourself.
Folks help you out?
Actually no I started a business when I was 15 and never went to college. Started doing business with a small company that grew to a multi billion dollar market cap. Business is still doing great and I’m retired. I sold my shares. Now I live in the Trump Palace during the winters. I paid for my three kids college tuition it wasn’t much back then. I went to the college of hard knocks you might say. So my Social security will pay my $10,000 a month condo rent and the payout on my shares will make all my kids millionaires when I depart. It’s funny, once you make your first million tge second and third just get easier.
Sooooooo, the newest version is 30% tariffs plus the 20% fentanyl hit on China? Might fool a few importers and it certainly is getting the headlines trump soils himself over.
The market goes up 3%?
Oh boy, its time to look at buying VIX call options!
It’s 10% with the 20% fentanyl tariff. 30% is still a big figure but it appears close to the level before liberation day (somewhere in the 20% if I’m not mistaken).
Two things are clear for sure: Trump is a clown, but markets will have his back regardless.
Extend and pretend, nothing you can rely on. Another 90 days of wait and see…
Like watching a manic depressive stripper that is over the hill and has saggy tits slathering makeup on.
Just sad and ugly
Except of course trading this whipsaw market! Woo Hoo kiddies, the hot air express is leaving the station!
Did you hear about trumps new children book?
It starts out “once upon a time there was a wrinkled old gas bag who thought he was a king”, it goes downhill from there.
Exactly as I predicted.
MAKE A GUESS WHAT IS DEBT GOING TO BE BY END OF TRUMP PRESIDENCY?? $ 45 – 50 trln?
AND WHAT YEAR USA budget deficit will be less 1 trln$ at least?
Double when he took office.
And Mexico will have paid for the wall. It’s all bullshit!
futures spx500/nsdq UP! gold down!
jesus!! GOLD HAS NOTHING TODO W/ trade policies
nothing would change fate of USA gov,. and future bankruptcy!
dont miss out to buy more!!
alx
This is an example of effective negotiating from the Marx Brothers:
The classic contract scene
It’s a shame we don’t have comics like these two any longer! I don’t think the Marx brothers ever uttered a curse word in their routines.
Groucho Marx said that cursing to get laughs is a cheap trick only used by mediocre comedians.
My kids loved the Marx Brothers films and they show them to their kids too. They have no worry about the kids seeing inappropriate things. It’s just great humor.
Historically trade deals either come quickly or take years. The difference comes from two factors, urgency and complexity. Urgency is self-explanatory but complexity is not. Complexity comes from all the myriad carve-outs each side insists on this or that product. These exceptions cause slowdowns because they have to be individually negotiated with input from those who want the carve-out who are very often but not always those industries with the best lobbying. If you want a trade deal quickly avoid complexity which means few or no exceptions to the tariff. What’s left is the negotiation of the level of the tariff which is simple for both sides because it is clear and transparent. We have urgency because Trump made it so. My guess is that he also made it simple. “Here is the deal. There will be significant tariffs with few exceptions and now we will negotiate the level of these tariffs.”
Trump has a habit of cutting Gordian Knots and this is the biggest one.
= a habit of cutting Gordian Knots and this is the biggest one
sure!!
buddy, MAKE A GUESS WHAT IS DEBT GOING TO BE BY END OF TRUMP PRESIDENCY?? $ 45 – 50 trln?
AND WHAT YEAR USA budget deficit will be less 1 trln$ at least?
cant wait for answer!
Trump is in damage control mode after all the years of failure and not just Birdbrain Biden’s disasters. So he’s doing as much as he can such as reduce trade deficits, and inflation. Did you see he signed the executive order today on drug prices?
You know what I call winning, that nice shiny plane Trump is getting form Qatar. Such a beeeeeeeautiful, yuge gift. Absolutely fit for a leader.
I mean cult member most likely will get a chance to tour it if they buy special Trump coin, top payer might even see Melania chilling in another room.
I wonder if they will find all the microphones and cameras secreted on the plane?
Another “Lolita Express” complete with under age girls for trump and little boys for the pope.
Trump was only in the Epstein report 54 times…
Move along, nothing to see here!
>
“Despite rumors of a big breakthrough deal, there is no deal.”
Wow, if it were true this soon, who would have more egg on their face, you or Xi?
Although I will keep my expectations low, what would be amazing is completely free and open trade between the US and China. Zero tariffs.
Then we can buy Chinese autos for half the price of US autos. And so much more.
Trump desperately needs his tariff plan to work because he is counting on revenue from tariffs to allow him to keep the 2017 tax cus, add more tax cuts and leave something over for him to skim off the top.
It will be difficult to raise much tariff revenue when Trump keeps pausing and cutting them.
Even if he ends up with 10% tariffs on everything, which is unlikely, that’s only $300 billion of revenue vs a 2 trillion deficit.
Here’s a great interactive chart that shows how much we can raise with tariffs if they keep going up.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2025/trump-tariff-income-tracker/
Mish should bug their conference rooms like Bill Bellycheck.
Last Wednesday, I heard Trump front running some GARGANTUAN new deal that was supposed to be announced Thursday or maybe Friday or it could be Monday, I recall him saying.
Is this no-deal with China that deal? Or maybe the American hostage release promised by Hamas at 12pm Israel time on Monday? Or a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia? Or perhaps nuclear disarmament for Pakistan and India? Or something even HUGHER?
Trump has so many “deals” cooking, I can’t keep track!
How is it that China has the death penalty for drug dealing/smuggling, but somehow it manages to supply the US with fentanyl? Maybe the source of fentanyl is closer to home?
Because the Chicoms are benefiting from selling fentanyl to the USA via drug trafficking organizations like the Mexican cartels. That is why and how.
Well how about that! It was China’s time to talk and so they did. It’s appears from the preliminary W.H. release today, those 2-Day talks went extremely well, and much in the way of favorable agreements took place.
Of course we shall see more after further in-house discussions take place tomorrow. No “Official Deal” was done, and it would be rather silly to even suggest such a thing. This is China’s first time coming to the table to discuss things further. The W.H. Was hoping for talks and we have them! TY China!
Now we can get down to the actual “Negotiations” with some serious outcomes in mind. We will win some and lose some, but have a much clearer path moving forward.
I suspect, and hope, to prevent blow ups from occurring once again from the MSM etc., this will be kept close to the vest for now. When it comes out next week or whenever, but soon I would guess, it will be a blue print of sorts is my image, and with achievable goals to be accomplished to move on I. The plan. This will obviously take quite some time, and must be open to changes along the way, due to shifts based on multiple negotiations touching on very similar, if not the same issues elsewhere too.
I expect no miracles out of the gate, but trade will be kicking back into gear, but with some small shifts, and some pattern disruptions. Not enough to notice by the average American and there wants, and equally no Noticeable disruptions to Chinese peoples way of life either. A Win-Win there!
Hold on tight…
Mish, Thanks for the preemptive news adjustment. I asked ChatGPT if the corporate buy-backs originating in the Reagan years had never been allowed and corporate profit was used for American business investment and expansion, what would the current US GDP be? ChatGPT Answer: It’s difficult to pinpoint an exact number, but if the $6 trillion in buybacks over the last several decades had been reinvested into U.S. enterprise, and assuming a conservative GDP multiplier effect of 1.5, that could add anywhere from $9 trillion to $12 trillion to cumulative U.S. GDP over that period. This doesn’t include the long-term effects on productivity, which could push that figure even higher. Sequential Democrat and Republican politicians have sold out American workers and a strong America to the direct benefit of their corporate sponsors. What would be more beneficial for American workers, 10% tariffs or a ban on corporate buy-backs?
Corporate buy backs are about return of capital for shareholders. Did you ever consider that the company’s stock has a more attractive return on capital than potential capital investments? Right now, companies are investing in AI with little return. There are also the same companies buying back their stock to support their stock price. To show no return on investment would cause their price to decline. To invest in the future, they also buy back their stock. Under your theory all that money should be invested in AI.
The issue I see with your theory is looking at only one glass half full of water and not realizing that there are many different glasses in the room and there is air filling the room. Think of the air as the capital not the water. Different companies come with different needs and structures and challenges and market their stocks to different needs of the market. Not every company has a risk profile embedded like a venture capital firm.
The stock repurchases support the stock price and the stockholder has the choice to sell or buy the stock and reinvest where they think it is best for them. This is the capital in the air.
The idea in the question is not free market but socialist. If you want companies to reinvest have a corporate tax rate of 90% like Germany. The company is not to serve shareholders, but the government through a 90% interest in profits. Dare I say National Socialism.
You can’t drink air. Next time ask the bartender for a glass of air, and make it a strong one.
Since 1980, over 320 companies were deleted from the S&P 500 for business distress reasons. Much of this can be accounted for by buybacks investment in HOT AIR rather than capital improvements and innovation.
This is what cannibalistic buybacks do, they eat away at a company from the inside, and not just companies but Nations also. The composition of the S&P and the DOW will look substantially different in future years. Some of this change will come from innovation, but much will happen from misguided financial Abracadabra.
If only people could learn how to profit from misery, the world would be a happier place.
The biggest problem right now is that nobody trust Trump.
so what is a point of any deal if you cannot trust partner. So everybody just sign some non-binding agreement to make orange man happy.
Real economy will get to a halt as it is hard to make any decisions in such environment. And Trump will call it winning and his cult too.
China cheats on every so-called “deal” they ever entered into. The issue isn’t Fentanly, it’s stealing our IP, spying, and trying take the SCS. Now that we have their economy on the ropes, don’t give them a chance to breathe. We can live without their cheap crap.
Now that we have their economy on the ropes, don’t give them a chance to breathe. We can live without their cheap crap.
===
another uneducated mo1ron!
i pretty much sure YOU DO NOT EVEN LIVE IN USA. if that
AI BOT?
ps
buddy. i would keep your mouth shut about stealing, it seems you never opened hist. book in your life.
China trades with the whole world and the U.S. is a small percentage of their GDP. China is rejecting shipments of U.S. LNG, grains, pork, aircraft, etc,.
This is not winning!
There is no trade agreement, all of us should be fed up with trumps lies…
wow, what a character. So we put China tariffs like 3 weeks ago and China economy is already on the ropes? do you really believe what you are saying, it is like missing one paycheck. I mean you can be super optimistic because Trump told you this, but I mean it is not some cartoon movie when all happen in a blink.
BTW I see Trump is negotiating, I assume he is “giving them chance to breathe” as you put it then.Question, how are cult spin doctors explaining it to masses. I mean I know it is winning just trying to follow same thought process……
and how is Trump caving solving this? Blame US companies for willingly handing over their IP.
When I hear that container ships are again heading from China to the US to fill up Walmart and Costco shelves, I am going to start taking serious this stuff.
Um…they never stopped. That was fake news.
Who cares if it’s a misleading pumped trade deal with China? Trump has been the best President ever for stock and options traders! Hopefully I can time my SPY put option buys just before the empty shelves and higher inflation hit the news wires.
That’s the right attitude. Nice to see someone with intelligence here.
I picked up a little TIMEX on the dip.
Good to see people wake up and smell the money train. There is a strategy out there for the right enterprising mindset. Always be the master, not the slave like the MAGA simps.
All aboard!
Thanks Mish for consistently showing up and cutting through the BS.
We are living through the era of the “Big Lie” again. Critical thinking skills are needed to survive.
More “deals”. Woohoo! What a show!
Looking forward to the details tomorrow.
From before, “China trade deal” is most likely a deal on slowing fentanyl precursors from China in return for 80% tariffs
Trump can’t help but frontrun the news
= slowing fentanyl precursors from China
WHEN DO STU11PID Americans slow down on drugs consumption?
These guys are claiming that they made a deal with China?! Well, even if they say that we’ll all see the sun rise tomorrow morning, I’d ask for solid proof.
Yes, they’ve made the very beautiful deal you have never seen before. MAGA.
I thought tariffs were going to stay at 145% and we were all going to die. How disappointing.
This has very little to do with unfair trade practices. US manufacturing off shored to China because of the Fed’s easy money policies over the past 30 years. Salaries in the US have risen to keep pace with a devalued dollar. The wage differential between the US and China has grown from about $16/hr to over $30/hr. Trump can whine all he wants about being screwed by our trading partner but in reality it is the Fed that has screwed us.
Bingo! you get the first Mishelin commenter star ever issued here. The red vs blue “fight” has always been at the margins, it’s the central bank that makes all the real rules that matter.
This is stable prices being redefined as 2% inflation, which bye the way was never approved by congress so the fed just “legislated” their goal all by themselves and the only congress critter I can recall calling them out was Ron Paul.
FED has no choice but to print cos bipartisan lifting of debt limit whenever it is touched. Only the consequences are undesirable over time.
It’s good that China is taking its time with a trade deal. It’s too complex to be solved in 2 days.
You can bet the devil will be in the details and that trump will distort the actual facts in an attempt to boost the stock market.
Sooner or probably later, markets will trade on fundamentals and facts.
Yup, I’m getting ready to buy more puts around October time frame because that’s when the full impact will start hitting everyone and I suspect markets will tank.
Just waiting for that irrational exuberance rally and the MAGA suckers buying into the market.
Only suckers if they don’t actually bank any of their profits assuming you can forecast the future. Are you certain it will crash? Are you certain when it will? Are you certain we won’t see a major melt up to 7000 S&P when all the negativity turns to FOMO?
Since I trade options I deal in probabilities not certainties. That should be obvious to any real trader.
Ultimately, this is what makes a market, you go long and I go short. I have millions in my bank, how much is in yours? And rest assured, if I’m wrong, I’ll lose some money. I was transparent and said I lost $20k shorting homebuilders a year or two ago.
Also, I’m not a binary thinker so don’t think that I’m 100% short or 100% long at any given point in time, only MAGA bird brains think like that in the 5th dimension of dumb.
You have millions in a BANK! Perhaps you should look into putting those millions in a brokerage account and at least earning a hundred k a year minimum on treasuries.
I’ve known guys like this. It’s an imaginary bank account.
And imaginary stock trades all with great profits from perfect timing.
You also said before that you don’t own a car and were glad because of the maintenance costs.
Fundamentals will prevail eventually, but not when you rationally expect it.
Ya I have been investing since Jimmy Carter blew up the inflation bubble. I have never seen the market trade at fundamentals , tge only time a company trades at fundamentals is when they don’t grow anymore or someone buys them out after they file for bankruptcy.
The market only knows fear and greed and nothing between.
None of this is about trade or manufacturing.
It’s all from the Project 2025 playbook.
It’s about cornering and blockading China, and desperate moves by the US Empire to reverse its inevitable decline. US workers will be hurt, not benefitted.
but Trump said he never heard of Project 2025 and wasn’t going to implement it? You ‘re not suggesting he was lying about not being behind a plan that would give him more power?
by the way I saved this collated update for you all
https://www.brettheinz.com/brettheinz-com/documenting-the-damage
This is a useful summary that the Dems should jump on.
bottom line there will be a tariffs on Chinese goods
Meanwhile Trump pivots, says GOP should ‘probably not’ raise taxes on richhttps://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5291877-trump-tax-increase-rich/
The Chinese trade reps were very complimentary of the US team. I have much faith in Scott Bessent. When this works out and the US is in a better position, what will all of you America haters find to grouse about? I am 100 % sure that you will conjure up something.
Scott is one of the smartest market professionals around. When he came onboard Trump’s team it told me something really major was coming up when it came to the economy. I didn’t know what but I knew he is not the type of man to be a caretaker.
And those additional tariffs are going to raise prices for American consumers and the consumer will not be happy.
Sounds like you have an ax to grind. Perhaps there is a deal for China to save face, so throwing a big party and saying f China bent the knee our commander and chief is playing it close to the vest. Did you conceder that in your negative TDS review?
I’m going to give Trump the benefit of the doubt and watch my accounts go up tomorrow.
Trump is not known for his kind, generous, face saving heart Mark. Seek an intervention for your cult indoctrination, it goes so deep that it’s disturbing.
I’ll keep selling calls (meaning I’m short) at rallies because this deal smells like a skunk.
I sell calls almost every day. Covered calls.
If you think trump has a deal then there’s no reason to be short with those covered calls. You say one thing then trade to limit your gains. It’s nonsensical but then again you have MAGA written all over you.
Kind of shows how much you know about covered calls. Try looking at as a rolling trade that makes 25 to 45% annualized returns. It’s not a single trade, I buy going up and going down , get called buy more stock sell calls , weekly. As far as the name calling MAGA I wear the badge proudly . Trump is right more than he is wrong , here is another example today. Attorney General Ken Paxton Announces Six Indictments and Arrests in Frio County for Illegal Vote Harvesting Scheme
Lol….25% returns huh. You should just buy the S&P 500 and save yourself the trouble or trading. But then again, you proudly admit you’re MAGA so that explains it all, case closed.
Laugh all you want while I collect weekly call premiums (deep in the money sometimes, I don’t think you could ever understand why that might be) I also collect the dividends. Three stocks I do this with are ET, EPD, and KMI. You do realize 90% of weekly call options expire worthless I hope. Seems you have a fixation on MAGA , I think your mad you didn’t get on board the MAGA train. I guess you were happy with the last administration. Have you looked at the polls lately how much faith the American people have in the Democrats party? I guess not.
by ll accounts China didn’t bend the knee. you can consider it but do you have a single fact for this?
here is what i remember from the annoucements:
Trump imposes 145% tariffs. Immediately he starts saying we’re open for a deal but China has to be the one to call.
This teenage-girl diplomacy went on for weeks ” I still love Tiffany, but I am not texting her after what she did, she needs to to reach out to mee first”. A few days later he again says China needs to call first, and if it does it won’t be because Xi is weak and he will be treated very fairly. so yes, this plays into your point that Trump understands they need to save face. Meanwhile his minions are sending out the same message. China for its part continues to issue belligerent announcements, saying simply they are not caving to these demands. this result sin the admin continuing China to call, with Bessent saying stuff like “China just needs to pick up the phone and call’. Probably someone in the admin realized playing chicken with a country that kept over 1 billion locked up at home for almost 2 years during COVID means China and its population can take a lot more pain than we can. Of course, China is experiencing lot of pain, no denying that, but it’s ability to keep the lid on that is much greater than ours.
At some point someone calls someone but oddly the news is silent on exactly who did what.
to think that any of this means China caved is baseless.
Thank you Mish. I was hoping you would post something after reading the absurd comments from the MAGA cult in prior posts that a deal had been struck and I just rolled my eyes.
There is NO DEAL, just planning for an eventual deal down the line at some point. I suspect it’ll turn into “Brexit” type situation with months or years passing by without any real deal. I suspect an “interim” deal (code for Trump caving) will come out with tariffs rolled back another 90 days or something similar.
Let’s see what nonsense Trump spews tomorrow morning.
There will be a ‘deal’ and ‘not a deal’. Schrodinger Trump….
We won’t know until someone opens the magic box and looks!
Such a kiss ass. Yeah, you trade options. Sure.
Lo and behold, exactly as I predicted right along with a suckers rally.