The most significant global trade war since Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression is underway. 
It’s a sad day in US history when a president breaks his own trade deals and increases tariffs on our closest trading partners more than anyone else.
But here we are.
Yesterday evening I commented Welcome to the Recession, Trump Hits Canada and Mexico with 25 Percent Tariffs
There’s “No room left” for negotiations says Trump.
There never was any room. Trump campaigned on tariffs and here they are.
The alleged “breathing room” was a month-long ploy to get whatever concessions he could from Mexico and Canada, then ignore them. That game works about once.
Spare me the sap on alleged emergencies. There are no trade-related emergencies. And drugs are no reason to break unrelated treaties.
Trump broke his own “best trade deal in history” so there is no reason for any country to believe he will honor any trade deal he signs.
Upon reflection, I should have said, welcome to the global recession because the world has not seen a tariff shock like this for decades.
Trump Takes the Dumbest Tariff Plunge
The Wall Street Journal editorial board says Trump Takes the Dumbest Tariff Plunge
We’ve courted Mr. Trump’s ire by calling the Mexico and Canada levies the “dumbest” in history, and we may have understated the point. Mr. Trump is whacking friends, not adversaries. His taxes will hit every cross-border transaction, and the North American vehicle market is so interconnected that some cars cross a border as many as eight times as they’re assembled.
I often disagree with the WSJ editorial board, but not this time.
Trumps Claims
- Tariffs will increase revenue enough to balance the budget
- Tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US
- Tariffs will reduce inflation
- Tariffs will increase exports
Conflicting Economic Madness
Points 1 and 2 conflict. Tariffs cannot simultaneously bring back manufacturing and raise enough revenue to balance the budget.
Points 2 and 3 conflict. Since the US is the world’s highest cost producer of goods thanks to unions, tariffs will not reduce inflation.
Points 2 and 4 conflict. Since the US is the world’s highest cost producer of goods and other countries will retaliate, tariffs will not increase exports.
It’s not clear Trump can achieve anything with tariffs, unless you count a global recession as a victory.
It’s not winning if you lose an arm when someone else loses a leg.
Loss of Trust and Retaliations
Factor in the Loss of Trust and retaliations.
Even if Trump pulls back eventually from tariffs, the threat has already caused lasting damage in cross-border relations. Trading partners won’t have an incentive to open markets to the U.S., allow investments from the U.S., or boost cooperation to curb illegal migration or drug smuggling, trade analysts said.
“We will have a long road back to Canada and the U.S. being trusted economic partners again,” said Matthew Holmes, executive vice president at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. “Businesses can’t just switch their whole model to avoid tariffs and then go back again, depending on what politicians decide on any given day.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday said Canada would retaliate with its own 25% tariffs on U.S. products. He called Trump’s decision “unjustified.” Canada has already published a list of commodities it will target with retaliatory tariffs, including poultry, vegetables, liquor, and appliances such dishwashing machines.
“Because of the tariffs imposed by the U.S., Americans will pay more for groceries, gas, and cars, and potentially lose thousands of jobs,” Trudeau said in a statement. “Tariffs will disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship.”
On Monday, the leader of Canada’s most populous province, Doug Ford, threatened to cut off energy supplies to the U.S. “If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything, including cutting off their energy, with a smile on my face,” said Ford. Ontario supplies energy to Michigan, New York and Minnesota.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday that her administration was ready to respond to whatever Trump decides, facing the tariff threat with “composure, serenity and patience.”
“There is tranquility, in the sense that whatever the U.S. decision is, we have a plan and unity in Mexico,” she said during her daily news conference on Monday.
Many U.S. lawmakers felt that NAFTA was a way of ensuring that Mexico would lock in free markets because it was inevitable that at some point a populist would be elected president of Mexico, possibly closing Mexico’s economy.
“Nobody thought it would be a populist president of the U.S. who would close off the market,” said de la Calle, now the director of a CMM, an economics and trade consulting firm in Mexico City.
Tariffs will push Canada and Mexico into recession. They will buy fewer US goods as a result.
New Era of Protectionism
Also consider Trump Tariffs Usher in New Era of Protectionism
Uncertainty is already affecting the economy by slowing business orders and making it harder for companies to plan. This comes as the economy is hit by other forces, including mass layoffs of federal workers, cutbacks to government-funded programs and restrictions on immigration.
Manufacturers are feeling the pinch. “Tariff threats and uncertainty are extremely disruptive,” noted one respondent to the Dallas Fed’s February manufacturing survey, released last week. “This is a time of uncertainty for manufacturers, very difficult to make business plans,” another respondent said in the Kansas City Fed’s February manufacturing survey, also released last week.
If tariffs remain in effect, they might push up inflation in March, April and May as firms raise prices to make up for higher import costs, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase. The tariffs also might hurt U.S. exporters if Canada’s and Mexico’s economies take a hit and if they retaliate with tariffs of their own. “If those countries go into recession, that alone is a reason to expect U.S. exports to those countries to slow,” he said.
Is there modern precedent for these tariffs?
The U.S. has raised tariffs on major trading partners in the past, but increases tended to be gradual, said Douglas Irwin, a Dartmouth College economist who wrote the book “Clashing Over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy.” Substantial tariff hikes such as the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 affected a smaller part of the U.S. economy because some goods were exempt and because the country was less trade-dependent then, Irwin said.
In 1807, Congress implemented a virtually universal embargo on foreign trade in response to interceptions of U.S. ships by British forces during the Napoleonic Wars. “It was enormously destructive to the U.S. economy,” Irwin said.
China Retaliates Against U.S. With Tariffs, Controls on U.S. Companies
China was prepared and acted immediately. The WSJ notes China Retaliates Against U.S. With Tariffs, Controls on U.S. Companies
China’s finance ministry said the country is imposing an additional 15% tariff on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn and cotton products, and an additional 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The new tariffs from China are set to go into effect on March 10.
The country’s commerce ministry said it added 15 American companies to an export control list. They include drone maker Skydio, as well as Andreessen Horowitz-backed artificial-intelligence startup Shield AI, which makes AI-powered systems for drones. Inclusion on the list would prohibit Chinese export of dual-use items, which can be used for both civilian and military applications, to those companies.
The commerce ministry also added 10 American companies to China’s “unreliable entity” list. These firms are prohibited from exporting or importing in China or from making new investments in the country, according to the ministry.
The ministry said it would prohibit U.S. biotech company Illumina from exporting gene sequencers to China after Beijing added the company to the “unreliable entity” list in retaliation for President Trump’s first round of tariffs in February.
GDPNow Nowcast Plunges to -2.8 Percent
This morning I explained the recent two plunges in GDPNow, first to -1.5 percent, then to -2.8 percent.
Some of this is a trade-related anomaly, that is partially a mirage. But even if we assume it’s entirely a mirage, Real Final Sales, a bottom line estimate of GDP is still negative.
Please see GDPNow Nowcast Plunges to -2.8 Percent, What’s Going On?
The short explanation is recession. The long answer is more complicated and related to tariffs.
Finally, we have not yet felt the hit on small manufacturers do to extremely unwise tariffs.
For discussion of the small business hit, please see How One Small Business Owner Is Coping With Trump’s Tariffs
Fifty-four percent of small businesses polled said that tariffs would negatively affect their companies, while just 11 percent said they would benefit.
Please read the above post and multiply it by tens of thousands of small businesses.
Welcome to the global recession.
So it’s ok that our “partners” tariff us up to 250%?
Hello
Q: Who signed that deal?
A: Trump
Q: Is it 250% on Cheese?
A: No, it’s tiered
Q: Who is responsible for this arrangement?
A: Trump
Q: Didn’t Trump brag it was “The best trade deal in history?”
A: Yes
Q: Is Trump a good deal maker?
A: Apparently not, by his own admission
Q: Will Trump honor a deal ratified 89-10 by Congress and signed by himself?
A: No
Q: Will Trump honor any deal he signs?
A: You tell me, but no one can expect that
Q: Is there a massive lost in trust that Trump will honor any deals he signs
A: Yes
@mish – do you still think Mr. Trump was lesser evil choice from economic perspective?
https://x.com/thomassowell/status/1897370750518223003?s=46&t=jF1Yqp3r6YI_MOF1AEFn7w
Well with this flirtatious article, Mish’s readers deserve a bigger one about how the global recession plays out around the various regions of the world, should be worth a read.
Here’s very outrageous scenario. Imagine you are Trump and this is your last term as the President. Biden left you with the economy and inflation issues which are close to impossible to solve now at the same time. Unites States allies have their governments leaning hard left and China is growing in influence, economically and politically. Can you think of how tariffs can be used as means to try to move the needle little in opposite direction even if it means some pain in United States?
so the issue for some and I am one is do we let China do as they please and send fentanyl and mountains of cheap product and Hope they eventually play fair with us?
China must eventually feel the pain just to get their attention. Unfortunately the people are under the thumb of communism
Here’s one idea: USMCA agreement has exploitable loopholes which for example allow Mexico import Chinese goods instead of producing them closer to our borders. Fentanyl and immigration, in my opinion, can be just useful pretexts to bypass tariff stipulations in the agreement and can be looked at as side-show benefit.
Lets dance before the music stop.
I think one of the problems is people in the media are harsh to criticize Trump as crazy instead of figuring out what his goal is. We know that Trump wants more help from Canada and Mexico on the border, but they have delivered.
So what does Trump want? The answer was here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6369607232112
So Trump is putting the fentanyl/opioid crisis on Mexico, China, and Canada? Ok, now you can say Trump is crazy.
Attacking supply of drugs is right out of the DEA handbook. It did not work with prohibition and it has not worked with opioids. Like alcohol, opioids are too easy to produce. If you study organic chemistry, there are hundreds of ways to make a compound. You stop a producer from one path, and he just goes to another.
Portugal has come forward with the best way to fight the war on drugs and until that type of strategy is adopted, the opioid crisis will be ongoing.
The only silver lining is that Mexico and Canada have made some concessions and Trump can declare victory and back off the tariffs. But if Trump thinks those concessions will mean fewer deaths, he is dreaming.
Does anybody actually believe that tariffs on Canada have anything to do with Fentanyl?
“Mr. Trump is whacking friends, not adversaries.” – WSJ
This is political and it is otherwise ridiculously naive. We don’t have “friends.” Business is business.
“It’s not winning if you lose an arm when someone else loses a leg.” In “trade,” this is entirely true. In war, it is entirely false. And we are advised this is a “trade war.”
People are fond of the expression, “It isn’t always pretty, but he gets the job done.” Who is entitled to having the job done for them and insisting on it being pretty – particularly given nobody else has been able to get the job done, or even cared to make the effort…?
I do not believe that there is much to fear of the additional Chinese Tariffs on US food products; they need the food more than we need their products.
The Chinese have other supply chains for food.
The rest of the world is in recession and we are the only growth engine. If you want to play in these waters you have to pay the price. As much as the US is in trending water while in debt the rest of the world is drowning and they must be in the US. When has trade been free? NEVER.
That’s very astute and practical of you to point out.
Nah, I bet this is resolved in 30 days or less.
Can they put a tariff on the drugs?
BTW, what the ****! is this fentanyl BS as an excuse?!?
INSANE logic.
We will inflate our way out of the depression.
We will depress our way out of the inflation.
We will do both at once!
Agreed. As Trudeau said “Why does Trump hit close friends [with big tariffs] meanwhile he cozies up with Putin”.
Geez, am wondering if Trump has some deal(s) w/ Putin. It’s not right and justnonsensical.
I wrote a couple of weeks back that if Trump continues with his slash and burn approach to governing, that come the midterms, the Dems might just achieve a super majority in Congress, which will then help then revert or neutralize many of Trump’s actions.
If events work out this way, then the world will only have to face TWO years of Trump rampaging through the China shop.
Many miss the point here. As some have been saying for awhile, Trump really is owned by Russia. Literally everyone of his buildings launders Russian money. His goal is to remake America as Putin as remade Russia. Like Putin, he sees bigger borders for America that include Canada and Greenland. This is all about gaining control of the resources in the Arctic. The people voted for Trump. Sometimes you get more than you voted for or something very different. I highly suspect there is going to be no election in 2026 or 2028. Over the years, more presidential power has been given by congress to the white house. There are about 120 emergencies that can be invoked by a president. Good luck to all.
Said Adam Schitt. A lobotomy might help your terminal TDS . Russia Russia Russia. LOL
“A Global Trade War Has Started – Global Recession Will Follow”
Disagree. The rest of the globe is not in a trade war with each other. It is simply the US vs most of the world (or at least all their friends and allies).
What a show!
Exactly. For example, China is not in a trade war with South America, which is an alternate source of agricultural products.
If China buys less food from US and more from South America, wouldn’t our food prices in US go down for our own food because of less demand on our supply?
That would make sense.
But there may be other factors in pricing, beyond the farmers. It’s not clear what they are.
There’s definitely no shortage of corn in this country, and cornflakes are $8 a box!
Hmmm bankrupt farmers don’t farm.
Mish is right. The tariff wars of today’s MAGA-led conspiracy theorist president are the road to hell… like the tariff pimpslapping of the post-Depression period, when whole nations raced like hell to obstruct the free flow of goods between themselves. Back then, it was de rigeur to uplift one’s own nation at the expense of every other one — which only worsened the economic crisis for all.
Short-sighted thinking by politicians has created situations like Venezuela’s. It looks like America will follow down that road as well.
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You can read more of my writings by visiting: dark . sport . blog — on the net!
Mish ; I disagree . You like every Trump hater has been wrong. They underestimate his moves daily. We have been in a recession for 4 years from Biden & his minions , and it will take another 2 years to maybe recover. In the end as usual Trump will be correct in the direction of the Nation.
No offense, but you are truly delusional…
Wow! Sorry but you are so out to lunch I can’t understand where you are getting your info.
He is overexposed to Trump meme coins.
Canada and Mexico will benefit from the strong dollar. The value of their RE and SS
will deflate. The want of dollars will grow.
If the US, with its large military could not keep fentanyl out of the country why would Trump think that Canada could keep it out. In any event, from what I have read, Canada is a much smaller source of the drug or its raw materials than China or Mexico.
The control of drugs entering the US is the responsibility of the US Border Protection Service, not Canada. The importers of drugs are screened on the US side.
Since mid Feb USD/CAD and USD/MXN are rising ==> the Canadian Dollar and the Peso are falling relative to US dollar
All part of the plan. The more they fall, the less the tariffs affect US consumers and the more those nations pay for them.
But you do know that Mexico and Canada can still trade, right?
Global recession was baked into the cake with, or without tariffs. Globalist elites planned it that way, Obama’s 4th term would have been the icing on the cake.
“A Western Trade War Has Started – Western Recession Will Follow”
FIFY
Papa Dave, where are you when we need your insight ??
What insight ?
Figuring out how much his investments in Canadian oil companies will be impacted is my guess.
Not at all is my guess. Oil demand is basically inelastic.
Papa Dave is the only one who understand my comments.
I can usually understand you.
Maybe not always agree 🙂
Sorry Limey. I am usually too busy during the daytime to comment as I spend a good part of my day doing important things that make my life better. Though I occasionally have a few minutes to check in and see what Mish is writing about.
I agree with Voodoo; what insight? Like others here I will give my opinion, but that and a few bucks will get you a cup of coffee.
I also agree with Doug. I was buying a LOT of Canadian oils this morning, and then selling them this afternoon. Though I also got in my regular run and hit the gym for an hour today. I did have some time to comment once or twice earlier today.
Michael. I understand your comments most of the time. But sometimes they are too cryptic for me.
Regarding tariffs, I am simply sitting back and watching what happens, and then figuring out how to take advantage of them. When change happens, opportunities present themselves.
While many here think that tariffs are just a negotiating ploy, I think that Trump believes that they will actually do what he says; and I am anxiously watching to see what happens. I consider it a wonderful real world economics experiment.
And while Trump “may” be right, I tend to agree with Mish that tariffs will have a big negative economic impact. Hopefully he will keep them in place long enough for us to find out.
In the case of tariffs on Canada; I honestly don’t understand why Trump is doing that. Our trade with Canada is advantageous to the US. We buy their oil for $10-$20 below market prices because they were too stupid to build more east-west pipelines and focused too much on north-south. Remove this cheap oil from the trade balance and we actually run a trade surplus with Canada.
And it isn’t about fentanyl and illegal immigrants. Trump just needed to say that to give himself the “legal” means to declare an emergency and break the trade deal he signed. Only morons would believe that tariffs on Canada are about fentanyl and immigrants.
And even though Canada is spending a lot on more border security, Trump doesn’t care. Now his admin is talking about dairy, and banking, and lumber and other stuff to justify tariffs on Canada.
So Canada is pissed off and choosing to fight back now. They have announced 150 billion in reciprocal tariffs. The Ontario govt is putting a 25% tax on electricity exports to the US and removing all US alcohol from provincial stores. And if Trump adds more tariffs on April 2, Ontario will cut off electricity exports completely. The fun is just beginning!
Mexico will announce their tariffs this weekend.
What a great show! Fascinating to watch.
‘kin’ ‘ell, you might wanna stick to those “things that make [your] life better” than boring the shite out of us with long-winded posts like this.
There may be room for a different view.
Here’s what Trump’s nominee for chair of Council of Econ Advisors floated:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
You’re looking at the trees, not the forest.
I have read this before. Its excellent. Unfortunately Mish is pot committed in his anti tariff views and is not open to change. The rest here just have TDS and would be against any Trump policy.
I’ve read it too and send it to Mish a few weeks ago.
It’s very interesting. But obviously untested.
I suggested to Mish that Trump was going to try it to see if he could depress the currencies of other nations in order to avoid much pain for US consumers. Starting with Canada and Mexico makes the most sense because they are far weaker economically than say China.
30% of Canada’s economy depends on the US. 2% of the US economy depends on Canada.
The recession was coming anyway. Which you have called many times.
Next.
Economy was not in recession in Q4/2024. There was a slowdown but GDP was still positive.
FYI. Much of the northeast depends on Canadian energy sources.
The Trump Recession is here. It will soon be a Trump Depression.
You are a Trump depression, there must be pills for that, or an ointment?
You underestimate the value of energy imported from Canada.
Agreed.
“It’s a sad day in US history when a president our breaks his own trade deals and increases tariffs on our closest trading partners more than anyone else.”
Let’s reword this to a much longer but more detailed & accurate statement:
After many years of doing almost nothing to stop hordes of illegals & death drugs from pouring into America, we finally have a president who says “HELL NO”. And rather than sending in troops, he’s sending in tariffs. Good luck!
For our friends to the north, you all certainly could have done more to stop the flow of illegals & drugs, but you’ve chosen not to. Also, you’re a very liberal country which is your right to be, but unfortunately the Maple Leaf, America now has a very conservative president. And he wants you all to follow the same course. It’s your choice to make. Unfortunately, you’re going to get your feelings & pocketbooks hurt because you can’t see your political tilt to the left is now very much at odds with your southern neighbor.
So be it to you both. And to China, screw you. You’re not our friend. Your Belt Road initiative is a debt trap for those who are stupid enough to get in bed with you. And you’re leading the charge to replace the dollar with BRICS. You are the world’s dominate Communist Superpower which places you all at complete odds with America. Our corporations have outsourced our manufacturing to you all far too long.
Not anymore, if DJT has anything to do with it.
I’d shorten it, nice and to the point:
“It’s a sad day in US history”
No chance, bro!
Mish’s was short but left out important points.
“If goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will.” — Frederic Bastiat (or Otto Mallery)
Tariff wars have always led to global economic chaos. But this time will be different.
Beggar thy neighbor is the new black again.
Looks like we’re well into the 80 year cycle as described by Dent.
The consumer has but one defense — reduce consumption to the absolute minimum. Should help the obesity epidemic.
How many here are old enough to remember appliance repair shops? Buying defective electronics and having to send them in for repair? Should see those popping up again.
There are next to no parts to repair. It’s all circuit boards now. Either entirely replace the board or toss out the appliance.
Not entirely true. Our clothes washer was having issues on the spin cycle, I researched the issue and replaced the springs supporting the washer tub and problem repaired, $35 and an hour or two of my time.
On the other hand if the internet goes out we’re doomed…lol
I have two Toyota’s one five years old one twenty-seven years old. Both run great with no mechanical issues. I was considering replacing the older car but why, it runs fine and is used mostly in town. That’s $30,000 +or- removed from the economy, that money is doing fine in CDs.
My wife and I were planning a two week trip to Utah’s National Parks this summer but canceled due to DOGE firings of NPS employees. That’s only about $4,000 removed from the economy, it’s doing fine in CDs.
I’m sure we’re not alone.
Trumpski wants to make America like Russia.
Your face looks like Russia.
Why does it matter if these trading partners retaliate? They hardly buy anything from us anyway, that is why we run such massive trade deficits. The royal road to riches is to export to the US as much as you can, while only buying from the US what you absolutely need. Raising tariffs on what you buy from the US only hurts the importing nation because they only buy what they need.
There is an easy way to avoid the tariff – build your product in the US; which is exactly what China requires of those companies that want to sell manufactured goods in China. Why are tariffs (and similar trade restrictions) good when China imposes them on us – but bad when we reciprocate? The European Union is a tariff union. The US cannot sell to any EU country unless a tariff is paid.
We need to run our economy more like China and the Asian tigers. The US has the largest market in the world. If you want access t it you can either build here or pay a tariff. It is only fair.
Another big part of trade deficits is that the US dollar is the reserve currency. Until such time as another country’s money becomes the reserve currency you’ll see forced trade deficits as part of the global payment systems.
The problem with Trump is that he is genetically unable to play cooperative games. As a narcissist, he can only play only non-cooperative games. But when it comes to trade and finance, only cooperative game playing works. Trump is now destroying all of these cooperative arrangements just to satisfy his narcissism. And it will be his voters who will pay the biggest price for this man-made disaster.
“And it will be his voters who will pay the biggest price for this man-made disaster.”
They’ll never need to vote again — DJT, 2024
Yep, the trade wars and recession are minor compared to the control of FCC and media. Interested to see how much further down the democracy index the US can fall.
Democracy index. Lol
and your worthless opinion speaks volumes
What cooperative arrangement do we have with China?
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) was never signed. What trade arrangement do we have with the EU? Maybe there is one or more. A quick search didn’t reveal anything.
As for MX & CA, a lot of Americans are okay with tearing up the USMCA & starting over. There are hundreds of thousands of dead Americans from fentanyl that would agree, if they could talk.
Who, exactly forces anyone to take fentanyl? Is it forced down their throats or is a lifestyle choice for those of feeble mind. Please do tell?
No one, of course, but if it was much, much harder to get, then our drug problem wouldn’t be so bad.
How hard is that to understand
It’s OUR border how is it we can’t inspect and control what crosses it?
You evidently don’t understand the expression in game theory. It doesn’t have to be formalized in a specific treaty. It is more broadly a manner of dealing and exchanging with others. I do applaud Trump for calling out China, that was huge. The Dems were impossibly behind the curve on that.
Global trade isn’t a game nor is it fair. Nuff said.
Tell the EU to end their VAT & I’m sure Trump will not place tariffs on them.
I think the reason that the TTIP was not signed was that a small number of the smaller member states of the EU objected to various terms of TTIP. They refused to sign the partnership agreement which required unanimity among the member states for it to go into effect.
That doesn’t really matter now does it?
They have a VAT. We don’t. Trade isn’t free or fair.
Trump’s doing something about that for America.
No you don’t have VAT, you have State sales tax.
Obviously, the US has cooperative trade arrangements with all WTO members. But these trade arrangements are now destroyed for good. You can’t trust the US to stick to any agreements anymore. And fentanyl is mostly a demand not a supply problem. You don’t have a fentanyl problem in Europe like here in the US because (most) Europeans don’t try to solve their problems by taking fentanyl. Supplies of fentanyl in Europe would be readily available if people would demand the stuff.
Feel free to list a full & comprehensive list, Albert.
FAIL!!!
All I want to say this: If the US wants to play non-cooperative games, the rest world will also play non-cooperative games. And ALL will poorer with non-cooperative game outcomes in the end, especially Trump’s voters.
A bigly recession could only be caused by a bigly buffoon. I’m gonna need more popcorn.
Canada has already announced retaliatory tariffs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/04/trumps-tariffs-start-global-trade-live-updates.html
Stop the fentanyl Mpox. It can be done.
I’m paraphrasing Kissinger who said something to the effect that it is bad to be an enemy of the US but it can be worse to be a friend.
Cliché
For a more reasoned look at tariffs.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/03/what-trumps-tariffs-did-last-time-2018-2019-had-no-impact-on-inflation-doubled-receipts-from-customs-duties-and-hit-stocks/
Slow growth, Yes. Inflation, Yes.
Recession, No.
We’re already there.
Nope. That negative forecast is beause of accelerated imports to beat tarrifs. The following quarter will post the reverse.
The EU has an average VAT Tax of 23%. There no reason not to reciprocate.
Trump wants:
a. China to stop the drug shipment.
b. Canada to stop the illegals & drugs coming in.
c. Mexico to eliminate The Cartels, drug flow and human trafficking.
If it were really just that simple
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-eu-vat-discriminatory/
Can’t blame the French. I remember several years back when Will Smith was promoting a film and said he’d like to move to France. This was probably during Trump’s 1st term. When one of the French journalists reminded him of France’s 77% tax rate, he almost sh!t brick. Needless to say, Smith never moved.
Okay, sure, we can blame France & the EU.
Er, VAT is not a tax on American good and services and is similar to your sales tax on European sourced goods. UK companies have VAT applied at the same rate to goods and services sold in the UK. Get with the programme.
VAT is the equivalent of the sales tax, so it’s applied to all goods, domestic and imported. Hopefully, this doesn’t go over your MAGA hat.
I agree with you 99.999% of the time. but not this time. I run a small wire company in USA. I’m inside the castle walls. Now, when my international customer need to ship inside the USA, I ship for them and save 25%. It’s just too early to see the outcome of these terifs. I’d hang on for a couple of weeks to see it’s impact.
what kind of business man are you? You need need to raise your prices because you can. you’d be foolish not to
100%
Never learn from history.
Elect leaders that have no clue how the things they’re campaigning about actually work.
And we’re going into it with the most over-valued stock market in history.
There will be carnage.
That Kenny Rogers song.
I sold out of 90% of my positions last week.
A high school teacher timing the stock market?
This is why I like markets. Everyone gets a chance to participate – with their own freedom, whether ending with their own good luck, hard work, or detriment.
Good luck timing back in
Let’s face it. It is very difficult to get someone elected who believes in free markets and limited government.
You were biased against Trump during his first term. Your speculating now and your still biased. Lets see what happens.
Why consider economic theory and history to make informed decisions when one can just wait for the events to happen?
New England, New York grid operators prepare to collect millions in tariffs on Canadian electricityWhether the tariffs going into effect Tuesday apply to electricity imports, and what role the ISOs must play in collecting them, is unclear, they told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-new-york-grid-operators-prepare-to-collect-millions-in-trump-tariffs/741343/
Brilliant – collecting 10% on energy from Canada. Meanwhile the cost of US natural gas (and so electricity) jumped about 15% over the last couple of days as a result of tarriffs. Doh!
If I’m east of Pittsburgh then I must have made a navigational error.
The only reason New York and New England use Canadian energy is that the state of New York refuses to let gas pipelines from the Ohio and Pennsylvanian natural gas fields cross its territory to serve New England. It’s a self-inflicted wound made by, you guessed it, Democrat politicians of those states.
Tariffs can only be looked at over the course of years and the behaviors that change or do not based on them. There’s no way to definitively make a statement regarding them and comparing them to Smoot Hawley is ridiculous. Also other academics have pointed out that the Smoot Hawley boogie man is just that and that FDRs own policies made the Great Depression longer and worse than it other wise would have been,
wrong again as usual
With no specific? ROTFLMAO
Go away, Howard!
Wall Street says this is a buying opportunity?
Buying opportunity? For the placing puts??
There’s always a buying opportunity on Wall street. Just depends on the what.
I was clear about this for a year. All asset prices are in a bubble. That needed to be popped regardless of who is in the WH. We are speeding up the process. Very cathartic.
and what about all the job losses are you willing wave goodbye to those people with a smarmy grin?
USAID? Really? Government waste? You prefer we continue a fake economy? No thanks. In fact if you want income inequality to really reverse you need asset prices of all kinds to crater. I actually care about future generations unlike you.
Howard will be one of the last to understand why a recession is needed. For all we know, he’ll not lose his job & stop not get it.
Howard, in a recession, some people lose their jobs. This isn’t a new thing. And the wealthy’s wealth effect can drop dramatically as does their net worth.
It’s a normal thing, and housing / stock markets haven’t been normal in 16 years, so stop acting like Midnight is a bad person just because he’s rooting for a downturn.
So Trump is increasing trade tariffs to pop asset bubbles? That is a strange implication.
Are you OK with any future President (Democrat or Republican) deciding that asset prices need to go higher or lower and making unilateral decisions to do so?
Why not have Congress do its job? If certain assets are ‘too high’, why not outlaw those transactions? Or tax those assets? Or tax the income of the wealthy increasing the demand for those assets?
Or … just let the market participants decide what they want to pay for assets?
In your dreams – Trump went short the S&P yesterday. Not true (well I hope). What is true is the suspicious 50x leveraged crypto play yesterday that the SEC probably won’t investigate or Justin Sun buying $75M of Trump crypto and mysteriously having his SEC case dropped.
What I am saying is that this is going to hurt small businesses but not Trump in anyway. We’re all just losers for not being rich.