“No room left” for negotiations says Trump. 
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says Canada-Mexico Tariffs Will Take Effect, ‘No Room Left’ for Talks
“Tomorrow, tariffs—25% on Canada, and 25% on Mexico—and that will start tomorrow,” Trump said Monday at the White House. “So they’re going to have a tariff, and what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things, in the United States, in which case you have no tariffs.”
Trump has said he also plans to increase duties on goods from China by 10%, on top of 10% duties he imposed in February and other tariffs already in place on the world’s second-largest economy.
Raising duties on goods from China by an additional 10% would generate about $86 billion overall—more than the yearly tariff revenue collected by all of Trump’s first-term tariffs, according to an estimate by analytics company Trade Partnership Worldwide. That sum would outpace the $77 billion the U.S. collected in tariff revenue from all sources in 2024, Trade Partnership Worldwide said.
Hoot of the Day
There’s “No room left” for negotiations says Trump.
There never was any room. Trump campaigned on tariffs and here they are.
The alleged “breathing room” was a month-long ploy to get whatever concessions he could from Mexico and Canada, then ignore them. That game works about once.
Spare me the sap on alleged emergencies. There are no trade-related emergencies. And drugs are no reason to break unrelated treaties.
Trump broke his own “best trade deal in history” so there is no reason for any country to believe he will honor any trade deal he signs.
Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False?
Please consider Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False?
The answer is false and I go over all the details. We need Canadian oil and we get it at cheap prices.
Another Recession Call?
No, this isn’t another call. I never removed the last one I made in May-June of 2024. If one happens now I will be 6-8 month early.
I’m still not convinced we missed one then. This feels more like a double-dip or one barely avoided although the NBER is highly unlikely to declare that.
More likely, Biden funneled enough stimulus to keep the economy hanging on through the election. Give hand-out credit where credit is due. Then misguided Trump optimism helped for another 3 months.
We have never seen a tariff shock this big.
The most ridiculous aspect is Trump is hitting our two top trading partners, Mexico and Canada, more than China. And the biggest deficit is with China.
The economy was already weakening before this tariff disaster.
Weakening Economy Recap
February 4, 2025: Job Openings Drop by 556,000 in December, Quits Show Job Finding Stress
February 5, 2025: ADP Payrolls Better than Expected But Two-Thirds of the Economy Has Stalled
February 14, 2025: Retail Sales Crash – Did the Consumer Finally Throw in the Towel?
February 19, 2025: Housing Starts Drop 9.8 Percent, Unable to Retain Any Traction
February 20, 2025: How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact Unemployment and Jobs?
February 21, 2025: Student Loan Borrowers Crushed by Appeals Court Ruling, Credit Scores Plunge
February 22, 2025: Trump Signs Order Cutting Off All Federal Benefits for Illegal Immigrants
February 26, 2025: US Consumer Confidence Drops at Sharpest Pace in 3-1/2 Years
February 26, 2025: New Home Sales Plunge 10.5 Percent in January From Upward Revision
February 26, 2025: Homebuilders Have Most Speculative Unsold Inventory Since May of 2008
February 27, 2025: Initial Unemployment Claims Spike by 22,000 Not DOGE Related
February 28, 2025: Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Hit Record High 6.56 Percent
March 3, 2025: Construction Spending Was Weaker Than Expected in January, Especially Housing
March 3, 2025: A Weak ISM Report Shows New Orders and Employment Back in Contraction
Weakening Economy Synopsis
Jobs, housing, retail sales, and construction were already weakening. Immigration is down at least 85 percent.
Immigration will no longer fuel spending, nor will immigration add to the need for state-and-local jobs related to health care and assistance services.
Finally, we have not yet felt the hit on small manufacturers do to extremely unwise tariffs.
For discussion, please see How One Small Business Owner Is Coping With Trump’s Tariffs
Fifty-four percent of small businesses polled said that tariffs would negatively affect their companies, while just 11 percent said they would benefit.
Please read the above post and multiply it by tens of thousands of small businesses.
Meanwhile, any trust in the US to honor signed deals is gone. Let that sink in. And if you don’t think that matters then you aren’t thinking.
“How in the World does Trump think he can bring manufacturing back to America while at the same time keeping prices of these goods competitive?”
It’s conflicting and impossible
So is getting revenue from tariffs and bringing back production.
Inflation is a feature not a bug. Entitlement costs must be inflated to zero. After entitlements are worthless the welfare class have an incentive to take well paid factory jobs. Thus the curse of socialism can be defeated. The general themes are work, save, invest, personal responsibility.
How does “save” work during inflation?
Who’s going to build a manufacturing plant when no one is buying anything?
yup, you nailed it.
I supposed we can continue to complain about how we lost all manufacturing, stopped oil production and let the Federal Government burn up trillions a year in non-productive enterprises plus the graft and back channel laundering. The country is insolvent and status quo is not sustainable. Your choices are to attempt to change spending and get domestic revenue increased or just let the country continue down in a tailspin. And when revenue is swamped by interest costs, are gonna complain or what???
I generally agree, and I’m still waiting for Trump to propose cutting back our socialism-for-the-elderly programs and raising taxes.
Oh, wait…
Trump might win if tariff one on one.
But very likely lose if tariff on multiple countries.
Nothing beats watching the country burn and Nero the clown claiming victory taking laps around on the presidential limousine .bigger deficits bigger and better grocery prices some more beautiful tariffs.a sh t show as predicted.
Where have you been the last 4 years? Fantasy Island? Tariffs are terrible, but pretending this shitshow is just starting is remarkable memory lapsing.
The Russians are right: the US signature on an agreement is not worth the ink.
It’s exactly the same at city and county levels of government. “If something is illegal, we’ll just change the law.”
That’s how corruption is dealt with not only at city and county levels, but at the federal level too: by legalizing it.
Time to read Keynes again:
“Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”
We have a madman sitting in the Oval Office.
Usually a country wants to control its own borders and does not expect the neighboring country to control what comes in (as anyone who has been to a border knows, you are not checked for goods at the departure country you are checked for goods at the arrival country).
Similarly neither China nor Japan before it (I am old enough to remember when Japanese goods were considered cheap) forced US manufacturers to leave the United States or US consumers to buy imported goods. They created the right conditions for the change in behavior. Now China is the worlds preeminent manufacturer with about 30% of the worlds manufacturing capability (compared to 16% for the United States) and manufactures most items better/cheaper than the United States. Semiconductors are mainly manufactured in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, all of which are in very close proximity to China. China graduates more engineers than the rest of the world combined. I think that the United States is going to have a difficult time building and operating manufacturing plants in the United States. If they do come they will be years off. Transformer lead times are about two years right now and they are needed for any operation of a new manufacturing facility.
I also doubt that for most manufactured goods that the United States could manufacture them at a lower cost than presently manufactured elsewhere even with a 25% tariff. So why would anyone invest long term money in the United States when its policies could change overnight?
At best, Trump might get some investment announcements, remove the tariffs, and then nothing (or much less) become of the investments.
Factories can be built, financed, but if the workers are nor skilled, it is not competitive. Thousands of machinists retired and died, probably in squalor, before training the next generation if machinists. TSMC had to import workers from Taiwan because a whole generation of semiconductor workers vanished from the US. The US will never be the industrial powerhouse that they once were, and, without an industrial base, they will cease being a military power, incapable of washing a war against a power military with a robust industrial base, like China and Russia. Welcome to the new unamerican century, thank God.
If Japan and China went from an agrarian society to leading manufacturers in less than 50 years then the US can do it too. I don’t know how, but to say the US will never be an industrial powerhouse is a pretty bold statement. It will probably involve a lot of automation and robots.
The difference is that China and Japan invested massively in STEM education, unlike the contemporary US.
Automation and robot installation cost exceeds several years of low- cost manual labor. What reigned in earlier competition was higher cost work forces in places smaller than China.
Middle class culture, any culture, can only stand if it is rewarded. In prior times middle class culture was fundamentally supported by the upper classes, who invested in America, creating vast wealth.
They modeled sobriety, hard-work, risk and reward. The working classes modeled the behavior through church and labor guilds, standing together for each other and the nation.
The wealthy have abandoned America, and the working classes have abandoned religion, guilds, and each other. Into that void steps cultural anarchy.
Society requires hard-work, and discipline. It requires accountability, primarily of the wealthy. I tire of prose that lament the loss of culture without holding those accountable who have abandoned their responsibilities.
Inflation: 1M CL flipped up in Jan. It’s currently < Nov, but Mar is likely to be #3 up.
The oil co are depleting DUCs inventories. That’s why Hal is down. The downtrend was over in Oct. 1M DX Nov flipped up. If Mar is #5 Up the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso will deflate. Their currencies will mute Trump’s tariffs. For fun only.
“Trump broke his own “best trade deal in history” so there is no reason for any country to believe he will honor any trade deal he signs.”
Imagine having a president who wants to do great things and then blow them up and make them even better? Trump reminds me of a UFC fighter who is not satisfied with just one belt. He just works harder and harder until he becomes CHAMP CHAMP.
If a trade agreement is not working for you anymore, it is perfectly natural to either ament it or end it otherwise you would be digger yourself deeper into a hole.
Let’s give Trump some credit. He’s a multi billionaire who has been elected president multiple times. He knows what he is doing. Trump is not crashing the economy, he’s negotiating.
Why believe your lying eyes when you can tell yourself a soothing tale?
You should buy more Trump meme coins. It’s the deal of the century!
Seems you are another mental giant of the trump troops.
Honda announced that the Civic hybrid production will be moved from Mexico to Indiana for the sole reason of Trump’s tariffs.
I. e. It’ll be more expensive and will sell less. Here comes stagnation.
That’s nonsense. All the Tacoma’s are made in US. Fords are made in Mexico. No one complains about Tacoma’s being bad
In 2021, Toyota moved all Tacoma production to Mexico.
I assume the Mexican workers are going to move with Honda to Indiana. After all, Musk said most American workers are too dumb to work in manufacturing or the government. And Musk is clearly the most visionary thinker MAGA has.
Hmmmm.
ROTFLMAO x 1,000!
Keep posting trash, jojo!
Everyone has an “opinion”, many of which aren’t grounded in reality.
This is an example of the Democrats clutching at straws. Soon they trundle out that Trump and his wife are having problems. After that it will be major tension between GOP leadership and Trump. After that it will be Trump’s golfcart refuses to carry him around the golf course. You get the picture.
Let’s return to the UN issue, for just a moment. Yeah I know it’s off topic here, but it’s important. Because we are all being lied to and misled about the invasion of illegals.
Lajas Blanca is the main UN invasion camp in the Darrien Gap. Constructed and run by the UN and paid for primarily with US money. Here is what Michael Yon said tonight:.
“Some people reading this literally may be raped, killed, or infected by invaders who passed through this camp. Lajas Blanca is fully operational and functioning tonight. This is the main invasion camp of Darien Gap. Not the only camp here, but the biggest”.
Fully operational and functional. And he disputes the administration’s claim on the reduction in crossings. Yes, he says they are down, for now. But according to him, the UN, NGOs, Cartels and the free border groups in the US are actively working around the clock developing alternate strategies, routings, etc so that once some time has passed and attention is elsewhere (maybe focused inward on a failing economy) there will be a new surge of invaders coming through the gap. In fact, and he posted pictures, two foot bridges are being constructed to facilitate the crossing. One is functional and the 2nd nearly done. He claims that until the UN is demolished (or at a minimum starting point the US pulls 100% of their funding) the invasion will continue. It might be smaller and less noticeable. But the UN and associates have zero intention of stopping.
The only way to stop them, according to him, is to remove their funding.
Crash the economy first six months of term.
3.5 years to rebuild and hand off to Vance invincible.
You read it here first?
Bigly ZIRP is the goal….
Only one way to get it…
Well that’s your theory anyway. Sometimes these things have s habit of getting out of control. Ever hear on unintended consequences?
And more MRNA vaccines – he’s pushing the measles one now
Haha… great for the job market… dead and disabled vaxxers = job openings….
Trump can do whatever he wants as he will not be reelected again.
I can’t believe so many people voted for Trump knowing this was the likely outcome – chaos, disintegration, alienation from our closest allies and economic collapse.
Did I not tell you it was all fake?
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/what-if-488
And https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/are-you-a-mentally-ill-retarded-moron/
People mostly vote single issue. In this case, it was “Stick it to the Libs!”.
We really need an IQ test for people to prove competency to vote.
Nope, they were voting over illegal immigration and DEI (Young people and renters were also voting on the economy).
If Biden didn’t allow those didn’t happen, Trump likely never gets elected in 2024.
I agree but there was a significant minority percentage that voted because they like chaos and that is what Trump promised. The number of these people alone were enough to get Trump to beat Harris, one of the wrose candidates the Dems have ever put forward in a presidential election.
Because Biden was so good?
Democracy election is not meritocracy. The more you can bribe to the people the more chance you will be elected.
Knowing that Trump would crush the rate of illegal immigration, strike down racist DEI and weaponization of government and support freedom of speech, i understand why so many people voted for Trump. There was much chaos under Biden, including provoking the war in Ukraine.
Where do you see chaos, disintegration, alienation from our closest allies and economic collapse?
Was hoping this was a negotiating tactic
How in the World does Trump think he can bring manufacturing back to America while at the same time keeping prices of these goods competitive? There’s a reason why all of the big US clothing brands manufacture their goods overseas. Allot of these items are made in Ethiopia that has a minimum wage of less than 30 dollars …..a Month! And Trump figures that a textile plant in the US that will be paying their workers 70x more will have no impact on the price?
Americans and all Westerners have enjoyed very low prices thanks to the huge reduction in costs due to overseas manufacturing. It’s absurd to think that the US can compete with cheap overseas manufacturing unless your entire plant is robots which would be very expensive with a very long ROI not to mention the fact your not creating the jobs which is the entire reason for bringing them back in the first place.
This guy’s videos have been popping up in my YouTube feed for the last couple of weeks, I’m not sure why because I haven’t been searching for Chinese machinery but I have seen previous videos of contractors reviewing the exact same Chinese equipment and a year later they are still very happy with their purchase. Try making that in the US for the same price.
https://youtu.be/OEkUSJU3EUU?si=ia5dJLWaJDMYwj5r
“How in the World does Trump think he can bring manufacturing back to America while at the same time keeping prices of these goods competitive?”
It’s conflicting and impossible
So is getting revenue from tariffs and bringing back production.
It’s insanity.
Slow down partner…
You are talking WAYYYYYYY over the eye Q’s of the average folks following Mish.
We only want to piss and moan!
PISS AND MOAN!!!!
PISS AND MOAN!!
SAD….
BIGLY SAD!!!
If we wanted a dose of reality we wouldn’t be drinking so much neat of our favorite distiller!!!!
The global economy will come unglued even faster now. It was never sustainable the way it was, and the ballooning trade and fiscal deficits are proof of its unsustainability. Tariffs are the catalyst for what was already coming anyway.
The Fool’s Party is coming to an end now. And it ends with a very big bang. I’m glad President Trump is ending Globalist Trade, because it was never really “Free Trade”. That was all a great big lie told to the dimwitted public.
Now the SHTF, and Marxist Canada and Cartel Mexico will no longer be able to profit from massive U.S. credit and currency expansion schemes.
Of course, this is going to be very, very painful for Americans, too. Divorce is painful, especially between countries.
America has bankrupted itself by way, way over-borrowing overspending and making too many promises to too many people for too long of a time. The end result of all of this mismanagement, fraud, waste, abuse, duplicity and corruption will probably be a national divorce wherein we breakup as a nation.
Painful, indeed. Very.
Meanwhile we are desperately shipping LNG at huge expense to Europe and Britain – North Sea oil and gas is done…
And this is destroying their economies.
Expensive Energy KILLS
Gas is more expensive domestically as a consequence. And this is destroying the US economy.
Looks like people need to study the terrible impact of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 and how it was rescinded in 1934. Tariffs run counter to the economic model of comparative advantage. Nothing good comes out of a trade war.
The comparative advantage hypothesis fails because free trade in labor is not possible. One trade partner will accumulate manufacturing and employment. Another will accumulate unemployment and loss of the tax base. Professors of economics are not the sharpest tools in the shed. If they were they would work for a living and contribute to wealth creation. The knowledge they profess to gate keep is freely available in the internet and can be parsed in less than one second with a good AI chat bot.
Agreed! And we’ve debased out manufacturing for the last 30 years or more.
It’s time to throw out antiquated economic theories for what’s best for America.
MAGA!
Try building any kind of heavy manufacturing plant anywhere in the US and expect 10-15ys of nimby and environmental lawsuits. He’s clueless that every US manufacturer has global supply chains these days. And worst of all he fails to grasp that we export our inflation to everyone that holds our currency or debt. He appears to be more economically foolish than even Bernie Sanders.
Over a million American households get their electricity from Canada. Doug Ford of Ontario is going to cut them off and send them back to the dark ages. LMAO.
YOLO
YMMV
He’d get a bullet in the head if he did that … or his plane would crash
Perfect pretext to invade Canada!
The grids between the 2 countries are interconnected.
The massive power outage in 2003 that affected the whole eastern seaboard and Canada is an example of that interconnection.
There is no way to cut off electricity to the US. He can raise prices but he can’t cut it off.
While it is technically possible for Ontario to cut off electricity exports to the US, doing so would have significant implications for both regions. The interconnected grid provides enhanced reliability, security, and economic benefits. Cutting off exports could disrupt these benefits and affect the overall stability of the grid. But it IS possible.
Just in: The premier of Ontario says he is imposing a 25% export tax on all electricity sold to the US in response to Trump’s tariffs. And if Trump raises tariffs further, he will cut it off completely. So I guess he thinks it is possible.
President Trump provided every possible stimulus and incentive for corporations to manufacture in USA. Many did. Those who did not must be punished until they do. Good paying manufacturing jobs must return. The tax base must return. Prosperity must return. Corporations that fail to heed will likely cease to exist.
https://nam.org/trumps-first-term-a-historic-era-for-manufacturing-2-32557/?stream=policy-legal
Auto tariff begins 2 April.
FAFO
Heads up Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, Ford, GM, Stellantis.
I’m already off grid bunkering since the 1970’s.
Waiting impatiently for end of times!
Jesus is coming back now because of sweet bigly djt
Sit back … pop some corn on the stove… and watch the fire works hahaha
Keep it up, KGB! Auto tariffs are coming to a car near you.
100% tariffs on cars from China.
25% tariffs on cars from Canada and Mexico.
2.5% on cars from Europe.
2.5% on cars from Japan.
0% on cars from S. Korea.
11% tariffs on cars produced in the US.
Why 11% on US cars?
US manufactured vehicles contain 45% foreign parts. And most of those parts come from Canada and Mexico. Put a 25% tariff on those parts. Which means US manufactured vehicles will essentially face 11% tariffs (45%x25%)
Cars sales from Europe, Japan, and Korea should increase substantially at the expense of US made vehicles.
You can’t get prosperity back through executive orders. I guess you know that.
Kinda like how the CCP forces companies to buy shares in the Chinese market… I have read that they are also forcing developers in Hong Kong to buy land and build – when the market has imploded… kinda like Ghost Cities dejavu
Welcome to the Show! MAGA baby!
I am looking forward to these Trump tariffs, and even more of them in the future. Then we will all be able to see how tariffs impact the economy.
Trump says they will bring back manufacturing and jobs, pay down the deficit and debt, eliminate income taxes, and make us all rich.
He also says that they will be paid by the other countries.
We are about to find out if he is right. If Trump is right, then all the above will happen and we will be in his “Golden Age”.
If Trump is wrong, then Mish will be likely be correct in his recession call. Which means Trump would continue the tradition: every single Republican President has had a recession begin on his watch since 1920. Which would mean Republicans had 15 of the last 19 recessions since 1920. And 11 out of the 12 recessions since 1950. Which I always find hilarious considering that Republicans think that they manage the economy better. One hundred years of statistics say otherwise.
I have my popcorn and a pile of cash ready to invest. Here we go!
Worse than a recession
Possible. This great experiment was tried before – 1930.
Car sales will implode if prices increase significantly .. and they will… as will prices at the pump if he’s jacking up the cost to import heavy oil from canada
I believe Tar Sand oil is required to blend diesel… diesel is used for EVERYTHING… including growing food.
Hmmm…. guns and ammo time!!!
Gold has to go to the moon on this?
I will post this again:
100% tariffs on cars from China.
25% tariffs on cars from Canada and Mexico.
2.5% on cars from Europe.
2.5% on cars from Japan.
0% on cars from S. Korea.
11% tariffs on cars produced in the US.
Why 11% on US cars?
US manufactured vehicles contain 45% foreign parts. And most of those parts come from Canada and Mexico. Put a 25% tariff on those parts. Which means US manufactured vehicles will essentially face 11% tariffs (45%x25%)
Cars sales from Europe, Japan, and Korea should increase substantially at the expense of US made vehicles.
That’s good – the Iowa farmers thank you!
https://www.iowapublicradio.org/harvest-public-media/2025-02-26/tariffs-fertilizer-farm-costs-potash
You’re welcome.
Papa musk!
Imma ready too!
Deep down in my non bunker busting bunker!
Bigly Deep down with my itching fingers all over the buy button.
Meals ready to eat going to the moon.
Back up the truck!
Ammunition by the ton!
Bazooka on trigger finger super light touch.
Are you looking at me crosswise?
Gonna show you how bigly tough guy donny deals with puny little gold looters!!!!
Be dropping boiling hot west Texas sweet light grade plus plus oil all over you zombie looters!
Or I’ll just get up and go sit in my cubicle tomorrow….
So, you are saying that every time a Democrat President handed off to Republican President a recession started.
Sounds like to me that whatever the Democrat President did towards the end of their term was the cause of the recession the Republican President had.
You do know that it actually takes time for changes to run through and affect economic factors, don’t you?
If Mish was calling for a recession about six months before Trump took over it makes my premise accurate.
Since Trump became President very little of what he done has affected the macro stats and the economy in general.
He still hasn’t even passed his own budget and all spending to date is from the Biden regime.
We’ll have to wait for about three months from implementation of the tariffs, deportations, and his budget to see any real macro effects.
Of course and no doubt you’ll regurgitate and repeat the same old post every day to remind us.
Lol! Nope. Of the 14 recessions that began during Republican administrations since 1920, 8 of them were preceded by another Republican administration. Only 3 of them began within 1 year of the end of a Democratic administration.
Maybe next time you should check out the facts before making such moronic assumptions.
And yes. I will keep repeating these facts. You’re welcome.
We are headed towards a big recession no matter what happens. The USA is massively in debt & austerity is now in play. We don’t get to the other side without a recession or two.
As for the last 100 years, the first 60 we did okay. It’s only been the last 40 years that we’ve hollowed out our manufacturing, with the acceleration starting in 2001, when China joined the WTO.
Throw you first popcorn in & get ready.
Yes. We headed toward a recession every time we elected a Republican administration in the last hundred years. I suspect this time will be no different.
And I have my popcorn ready. Thanks!
Looks like #3 is good for investors.
In November 2020, The Washington Post cited a study by CFRA Research that the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500) averaged the following annual rates of return, under different control scenarios, from 1945 to September 2020:
I never worry about who is elected. I don’t even vote. But I make money no matter who is in power.
And there are a lot of different analysis on which party is better for the markets. Here’s another one.
https://funds.cifinancial.com/en/documents/3/19739_1604955570_en.pdf
Honestly this seems like nothing short of full out economic warfare and against your neighbors, this will definitely very negatively impact the relationship between the US with Canada and Mexico, if it drags on I don’t think it will be easily repaired. Like China said, using Fentynal as the reason is nothing but an excuse.
Fentanyl is what fuels the American dream.
Does China get along well with its neighbors?
I’ve been telling my friends that he will crash the economy. He isn’t even done yet. I’m sure Trump will say that some pain will have to be endured in order to correct all the wrongs. The pain will be too much to take even for hard line Trump supporters. Look out below.