About That Google Blowout: Bull Markets End on Good News, Not Bad

Alphabet (GOOG) Share Price chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Google Propels Record Alphabet Revenue   

Reuters reports Google Propels Record Alphabet Revenue, Driving Shares Up 8%.

Alphabet’s shares jumped more than 8% in after-hours trading, also rising on the company’s announcement that it would undertake a 20-to-one stock split.

The results were the latest to reinforce that the global trend toward a more digital economy has made Big Tech companies resistant to small-market shocks. While concerns about rising inflation, COVID-19 variants and supply-chain shortages have rattled Wall Street and hurt sales at some businesses, the companies that control key gateways to e-commerce, hybrid work and streaming entertainment have not seen a dip since the early days of the pandemic.

Alphabet’s sales jumped 32% to $75.3 billion in the fourth quarter, for a third straight quarterly sales record and topping the average estimate of $72 billion among financial analysts tracked by Refinitiv.

Consumers dove into Google search looking for apparel and hobbyist items, while retail, finance, entertainment and travel advertisers raised marketing budgets, Google’s chief business officer, Philipp Schindler, said on an earnings call.

Read that last paragraph above and try to explain that Amazon is a monopoly. It’s not. But that’s not the key point here.

The Nasdaq is only up 0.5% as of about 1:50 Central, a rather feeble performance. 

Tesla Record Sales 

CNBC reported in December Tesla delivered 936,172 electric vehicles in 2021, with the fourth-quarter setting a new record. 

Key Points 

  • Tesla just published its fourth-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2021, and it handily beat analysts’ expectations.
  • Tesla deliveries amounted to 308,600 electric cars in the fourth quarter and full-year deliveries amounted to 936,172 vehicles.
  • According to a consensus compiled by FactSet, Wall Street analysts had anticipated Tesla deliveries of 267,000 in the fourth quarter and 897,000 for all of 2021.

Tesla Chart 

Tesla (TSLA) Share Price chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Tesla peaked on January 4, 2022 at an intraday high of $1208. 

It plunged all the way to $792 then gained a bit in a bear market rally and now sits at $905 down nearly 3 percent on the day despite the euphoria over Google.

ARK Innovation ETF 

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) January 31, Share Price chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

That chart is as of January 31, 2022. ARKK also rallied a bit to $77.5. It too is down today, nearly 5% to $73.38 as of 2:20 PM February 2.

It is still down over 50% and it is not a buy at this price. 

Bull Markets End on Good News, Not Bad

People think bull markets end on bad news. They end on good news. 

It’s bear markets that end on bad news. 

I expect that huge gap up on GOOG to fill sooner rather than later. And I expect Tesla and ARKK will resume slides in a big way, even if Tesla has a better 2022 first quarter.

Many people are not old enough to remember the dotcom carnage in 2000. I recall it vividly. 

Stocks repeatedly got hammered on blowout great news. All of the good news was priced in, and then some.

Enormous Bubble

Forget the record sales and earnings and look at the PE ratios, smoothed earnings, and other valuation mechanisms all screaming BUBBLE! 

What Can Go Wrong?

  1. The Fed is hiking
  2. Stimulus has worn out
  3. The stock market is stumbling
  4. Pending Homes Sales Unexpectedly Decline
  5. Merchants are stockpiling and pre-ordering everything
  6. Retail sales are falling.
  7. Major deceleration in deficit spending.
  8. Declining working age population will reduce productivity.

Let’s Discuss Housing and Recession

On January 31, I commented Mortgage Rates Are at the Highest Level Since Before Covid-19 Hit

On January 28, I commented Pending Homes Sales Unexpectedly Decline 3.8 Percent in December

Mortgage rates are rising, what will that do to home sales. And if Home sales drop, what will that do to demand for appliances, paint, lumber, landscaping? 

All of this stuff ties together as a bull market in stocks encourages second buying of homes, new car purchases, and travel.

That’s why, With Nearly Everyone Looking the Other Way, It’s Time to Discuss Recession.

All of the pieces are in place for a huge stock market decline.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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blacklisted
blacklisted
2 years ago
In your “what could go wrong” section, you forgot the fact that Europe and other parts of the world are in worse shape than the US and are closer to defaulting on govt debt faster than US.  US banks will not even accept govt debt from Europe as collateral in overnight lending market. Where do you think all the non-dollar based assets will go?  Give the decline 6 weeks, then look at your bubble predictions.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
1 year ago
Reply to  blacklisted
Yeah, your lala land, buying resources and outsourced stuff with toilet paper for ages, wil not continue , I am afraid…. the US dollar world domination, weaponization is gradually, dramatically and exponentially rather, coming to an end , sanctions and war against a global, debtless(go figure !) super power like Russia being the final nail in your USD coffin ! Trust me, I did not want this to happen, for my USD investments are considerable , so I d wish the US would reconsider its criminal hegemonic attitude, facing reality for once and fn all and accept a HEALTHY multipolar world ! Thank you !
Clover NL
Clover NL
2 years ago
What effects do 401k’s have on the stock market?  I have been wondering if part of the reason for the bull market is all the people contributing to 401k.  And now that more people are retiring, they will begin to take money from their 401k and thus leading to more sales of stocks than before?  Mish, is there data on the amount of 401k buying vs selling to see if we have reached a tipping point where there will be more selling than buying of 401k?  
Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
As society engages more and more in living within their means instead of living within their leverage ability; there will be a Sea Change in consumer and investment sentiment. This will not only be a psychological change in behavior, but is also caused by a simultaneous change in access to financing and liquidity.
Boom times are when society lives above their means, recessions are when society lives within their means. At an individual level living within your means can be a prudent decision. At a societal level there is not only the principle on borrowed money that has to be paid back, but also the interest as well. This becomes difficult in a slowing or contracting money supply as their is not enough money to pay off the non productive interest portion of loans. The amount of money necessary to do so will not even be created in a slowing economy.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
“Boom times are when society lives above their means, recessions are when society lives within their means.”
Problem in financialized dystopias is, that “All times” are when some-in-society’s effective “means” consists of nothing more than crass theft from others. Such that the former can continue living above their own-generated means all the way up until the latter has darned near starved to death (or grows up and realizes that simply blowing the entire racket to literal Smithereens is nothing but a good thing, regardless of how “messy” it may look on TV…).
And that problem is made even worse, by the former being idiots incapable of doing anything at all productive. While the latter; the ones having their wealth hence control over potentially productive capital redistributed away from them; are the ones who both originally created whatever wealth there is to redistribute, and who possess any ability, whatsoever, to create more of it.
whirlaway
whirlaway
2 years ago
Oh, btw, the DONORcrat Party in California shot down their own single-payer healthcare legislation, even though they have a 75% majority in both the state House and Senate.    Just as I had predicted.
Only in ‘Murica, can we get to see politicians taking bribes from for-profit health insurance companies and doing what the companies want them to do, and still be called “socialists”!   LOL
shamrock
shamrock
2 years ago
I remember the dot com bust too, but I don’t remember all the good news.  It was nothing but losses.  Nobody was earning profits the way Google is.  Microstrategy restated several years of “earnings” and triggered the entire market collapsed.  And here they are again with huge stock runup on billions of dollars of bitcoin “investments”.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
First, I own no Google at all. No dog in the fight.
But….Google has now proven over the last year that it (and Microsoft and Apple) are the strongest companies in the world. Nobody else is close. Now they’ve split (smart timing) and if the markets crash it will be a screaming buy. The valuation now at 25 is a little high for a value investor but compared to say, Tesla, it’s amazingly cheap. If the shorts go after it as the last man standing and succeed….aided perhaps by a Fed induced market crash, it would be a stock I’d recommend for my own kids to buy.
They are the Monopoly of the internet, and as such, they more or less own the world now, in terms of advertising, narrative shaping, political influence….they’re a safer bet than ATT in 1984. Better than any company, ever.
I do not like Google. What they stand for in terms of social influence, their woke corporate culture, their Neo-feudal model of the future….none of that. But it doesn’t much matter.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Agreed Goog PE about in line with the NASDAQ average.   Roughly half of the Amazon ponzi scheme’s PE.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Wouldn’t it be funny if Elon Mush bought what’s left of CNN? Lots of people there have already been fired and now the head is gone. At where it is now it isn’t worth much. He could buy it and turn it into who knows what. He has said that he might buy something in media and he has cash on hand. Just a speculation.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
He already has the whole media blogging for him.  Not like Bezos who had to go out and buy his own blog.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Notice how many people are looking at the CNN news at the airport vs looking into their phone?
That’s how much CNN is worth.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Airports dropped CNN over a year ago. Musk could buy it, redo it and put it back on lots of places. Remember how CNN was before it went woke?
KidHorn
KidHorn
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
It would be funnier if fox news corporation bought it. Imagine the look on their anchors faces.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
75B is a lot selling user data.
I once used a browser feature which allowed to fill in address fields in online sale forms, which I thought was stored in a cookie.
I was wrong; the browser got the data from Google, so I can guess how much Google knows about me.
Everybody would benefit learning if you haven’t about cross-browser fingerprinting, too.
whirlaway
whirlaway
2 years ago
Amazon is a monopoly as well as a monopsony.   It needs to be broken at least into four different entities – retailer, marketplace, web services and logistics.  

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