ADP Estimates a Job Loss of 301,000 in January

Graphic courtesy of ADP

Please consider the ADP® National Employment Report™ for January 2022.

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

ADP historical calls courtesy of ADP

The BLS nonfarm employment report generally comes out the first Friday of every month. This month is no exception.

Bloomberg Econoday and most economists predict total nonfarm employment. ADP only reports on private employment. In December there was a loss in government jobs.

Econoday January Predictions

Chart courtesy of Bloomberg Econoday

Predictions vs Actual 

  • December ADP Private: 807,000 Actual 211,000
  • December Econoday Total: 400,000 Actual 199,000
  • January ADP Private: -301,000
  • January Econoday Total: 150,000 
  • January Econoday Private: 150,000
  • January Econoday Estimate of January ADP Private Prediction: 225,000

As you can see, there is not much to these predictions other than amusement.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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oee
oee
2 years ago
Guesss what they were off the mark. They were 700 Thousand jobs off!!! The economy is booming!!!!! more jobs than Trump (a net loss of 2.50 million jobs in 48 months). Biden/Harris a net increase of at least 7 million in 12 months, and this before the infrastrure law kicks in!!! 
KidHorn
KidHorn
2 years ago
Reply to  oee
You’re looking at adjusted numbers. Which actually showed a 467k gain. Not 700k. We actually lost 2.8 million jobs. My guess is the administration freaked out after massive stock market losses yesterday and instructed the BLS to show a good jobs report. So the BLS had an absurdly high adjustment.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
“ADP is often wildly off the mark…”
Speaking of wildly off the mark, Zero Hedge: Lockdowns “Imposed Enormous
Economic & Social Costs”, Had “Little To No Public Health Effects”;
New Johns Hopkins Study Finds
From a subsequent ZH story: “Johns Hopkins itself did not even put out a press release about this study…”
Yeah. So Sweden was right in bucking the consensus of locking down globally.
With so many records having been set, everything is wildly off the mark, now.
 
kpmyers
kpmyers
2 years ago
Hey Mish,  If Jan or Feb show’s employment losses, do you think the Fed will re-consider raising interest rates in March?
Mish
Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  kpmyers
January no – It will be blamed on Covid
January and February – probably not, depending on the numbers, but it would temper down expectations of more hikes 
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
This is what true innovation is all about.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
1812 Overture  meandering to the finale.
Japan Services PMI (January) 47.6.  Prior 52.1.
(Bloomberg) — Global food prices jumped toward a record last month, further adding to the surging cost of living for consumers.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
There is an old stockmarket saying in the Old World and that is buy at the sound of cannons and sell at the sound of violins however for the 1812 Overture it would be the opposite.
KidHorn
KidHorn
2 years ago
So, we went from a record number of job openings to 300k jobs lost. Either the data was and is complete BS or something changed a lot going into 2022.
Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
Said another way……. It is best to buy low and sell high……… More people buy at the market peak than at any other time. This is why it is the peak, because demand is so high on an optimistic note.  At market lows, less people are buying because there is a pessimistic tone.
  Well said Mish!!!
“People think bull markets end on bad news. They end on good news. It’s bear markets that end on bad news. “
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
It’s when good news doesn’t make the market go higher. Those who are bullish have no more cash and those who have cash are no longer bullish.
1-shot
1-shot
2 years ago
Markets are more interested in earnings, or lack thereof, right now. 

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