Sheer Lunacy
I typically do not comment on sheer lunacy but do so this time because the person who said it, Jeffrey Gundlach, is DoubleLine Capital CEO.
Gundlach says The U.S. Could Split Up. He also explains how to invest for that outcome, and he predicts Trump will win the election.
Donald Trump is most likely to win re-election, but no matter the outcome of the presidential race, the U.S. could find itself broken into more than one country as unrest and acrimony grip the electorate, noted investor Jeffrey Gundlach said Monday.
Could America lose faith with democracy? “People are strongly committed to the concept of democracy and yet China has had massive growth and way better infrastructure under totalitarianism,” Gundlach mused. “What are we doing when our outcomes are inferior? Is it possible we could change in that regard? Yes, it is possible. I think we are going to see substantial changes in the next six years.” That might even include the U.S. breaking into more than one country, he said.
Now, Gundlach said, “I think we’re going to move into an area that has fat tails.” Skyrocketing inflation is just as likely as disinflation or outright deflation, he thinks.
“I hate long bonds, but I still think you’re supposed to own some, and in a deflationary environment, you would want your portfolio to have that hedge,” he said.
No Constitutional Provision
There is no provision for states to declare independence.
Nor would the US allow for that outcome if a state did declare independence.
We can debate whether a state should be allowed to break away, but there is no way to invest for an outcome that has no chance.
Fat Tails vs Fat Tales
I agree with Gundlach on the likelihood of substantial change and fat tails but not the fat “tale” that he proposes.
Interestingly, the subject of fat tails came up twice today.
The author of Black Swan, a book about fat tails, brought up the subject today as noted in Nassim Taleb Accuses Trump of Incompetence and Denial.
Mish
This is very sad. One thing no one has mentioned is the fact that instability of this nature could easily result in the US being nuked by China and/or Russia. We have nuclear weapons, and if there’s a civil war, our enemies, quite logically would assume that they were in danger of being nuked by some faction or another and might decide to preemptively take us out of the equation altogether. In my opinion, the only people who would benefit from splitting the US up is our enemies.
Rome, USSR, India, Hapsburg Empire, Yemen, Czechoslovakia etc. All split in half or into many parts. One state would probably not leave, but a group of states would be unstoppable. All states have large populations, arms and military bases that have a ready made air force. Most countries are smaller and poorer then any of our individual states so economically it is very feasible. If Portugal can made it why couldn’t Texas? All our media thrives on division and hate. The next time your smile with glee when your favorite news outlet vilifies and condemns millions of people they disagree with remember that a house divided cannot stand.
I think it will happen, but it doesn’t have to be an exact, clean split on current state borders, nor just 2 new countries. It can be 4 or 5 or 6, with new borders depending On the populous. California can have a border between the costal areas and the inland areas, and extend north into Oregon. Also, both political parties should be disbanded, just retire the term (Democrat and Republican for good) for the new countries, and a 3 or 4 party system adopted. So each new country can vote on a far left, moderate left, moderate right, and far right politicians to lead them. That way, it’s not a huge chasm between liberal cities and conservative country surrounding the city. The president down to mayors will have a better chance of representing their constituents properly. I see a referendum to split up happening in my lifetime.
….and what do you think Russia and China would do with a broken up US? Preemptively nuke us before some crazy faction here can nuke them? A civil war would offer just such an opportunity for them to just eliminate us altogether while we’re distracted with fighting each other. To me that seems like the most likely outcome. One thing that would be guaranteed is a global financial meltdown. Talking about investing is hilarious. Civil war would destroy our financial markets entirely. The very first thing people would do is take ALL their money out of the market and the banks. Our currency would become worthless, our standing in the world would be gone and our enemies would dance a jig.
IMO, there are 3 factions, the globalist Oligarchs, the commies/socialist and the Trump type conservatives. There needs to be a civil war to fix this country because none of the 3 is willing to give, I’m sure not!
Mish is right……about entire states breaking off. But that isn’t what Gundlach said.
But why couldn’t areas within states try to split? How about Portland? Or how about the non-Chicago part of Illinois tries to join Missouri or Iowa? Very plausible.
I think it would suit us to either split up, or greatly weaken the federal government. The melting pot is full of angry chunks that need their own pots. We have this military monkey though, and dismantling that would destabilize the whole world.
Fools. You have already split. The politicians with the big boy pants (the senate) have devolved into partisan BS, including setting the precedent of using the nuclear option for pretty much anything. There is no path to success in your failed republic.
Blow it up and start over.
Is the mathematical probability zero? No. But it’s MORE likely that Jeffrey Gundlach and those like him will be “split up” when the revolution comes…
Respectfully think you missed the boat on this issue. Two things could cause a fracture: some states recognizing a Biden victory while other states recognizing a Trump victory; or, some for of split based upon repudiation of Federal Reserve debt. – Just for for thought.
People who don’t understand history then think everything will be same forever. Mish, why the heck did you leave Illinois??? You left because of the incompetence of the Illinois government. What do you think folks will do if they think their Federal government or State governments are incompetent? Leave. Form new associations. The sad thing is that should this country dissolve, you will see a lot of people wishing for the good ol’ days.
Gundlach is being a realist. It’s unpleasant, but that’s why he’s a rich guy. He’s putting aside emotions and thinking.
The US will fall apart one day….but that day is not going to happen this week or this year….it will only happen after a very bad global credit and money crash that renders the great powers that be irrelevant…….as the money stops flowing to pay the military and the federal dole. We aren’t close to that.
tRump may turn out to be the Gorbatchev of the USA. That would be the great revenge of the Soviet Union.
Not quite right. Article V of the Constitution states that the States can call a Constitutional Convention (34 of 50 states have to say yes to this) and a dissolution of the Union can be proposed at that convention. If, once again, 34 states vote to dissolve then the US ceases to exist. Unlike when an amendment to the constitution is proposed to change something specific, in a full constitutional convention everything is back on the table. If we get there the odds of dissolution rise dramatically.
“Absurd Idea of the Day: US Could Split Into More Than One Country”
In 1861…
Martin Armstrong has been talking about that idea for some time, now.
No one expected the Soviet Union to break up.
Lately, the biggest demonstrations in Los Angeles have been Armenians, opposed to the recent attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh. The demographics of the U.S. are constantly changing.
Democrats are engaged in tearing down our historical common culture. The mayor of Washington D.C. says the Washington Monument, Jefferson Memorial, etc., should be torn down. Socialism should replace capitalism.
It is not an absurd idea that the U.S. could split into different countries, regardless how unlikely it may seem today. One year ago it was unlikely that U.S. GDP would drop some 30% in one quarter and a quarter of U.S. workers would be unemployed.
First, we send all the Trump voters to FEMA reëduction camps where they get Covid and die.
Second. Oh, wait. No need for Step 2.
The democrats occupy little islands in a sea of red. Where would the dividing line be? The cities depend on the country for everything they consume. How are the island cities going to get food and energy?
A more likely outcome is states splitting up. Split California up in 2. A blue California and a red one. Would be a huge disaster for the democrats.
And yet the vast majority of the GDP is in the cities, not the country.
The Declaration of Independence predates the Constitution. Furthermore Congress gets to allow new states into the Union and change the borders between the states, and even subdivide individual states. Therefore it follows that Congress could let a State leave the Union as well.
The Recent Courts have held that the Federal Government is not limited to those powers explicitly mentioned in the Constitution (abortion and gay marriage being two examples) so I don’t think they would stand in the way of Congress allowing a State or States to depart.
And if they did, the final authority is a Constitutional Convention, which overrules everything.
Where Mish is right is that a State can’t just declare they are out of here and start shooting and not expect a military response.
There might not be any provision for states to secede, but there also is no law against it. Why would there be a law against secession when the US was born through a secession? It may not be likely to happen, but we need it to happen.
“China has had massive growth and way better infrastructure under totalitarianism”
And lots of genocide and murder and concentration camps – all built for less than Hitler’s Germany.
We actually had totalitarianism under FDR because of the twin emergencies first of the Great Depression then the second world war, the fact that the people went along with it happily and patriotically and reelected him three times by landslide margins does not mean many of the elements of totalitarianism (and socialism) did not flourish. In fact had I been alive and an adult I would have voted for him as well. It is not as if he had any choices, Hoover thought the best route to cure the crash of ’29 and the resulting deperession was republican austerity and it was a disaster. Yet party faithful put him above the nation even as farmers were slaughtering their heards because they lost so much money on every animal that it made business sense to destroy them rather than keep throwing good money after bad feeding them. So the killed their animals and buried the corpses in vast landfills rather than sell at such a steep loss. Even as people were starving IN AMERICA!
Hindsight being what it is, voting for FDR is the logical course for the masses affected by depression. However, what we don’t know is whether another year of austerity would have turned the corner with far better results than enduring the Great Depression, in which case WW2 might not have happened.
IMHO, I think Mix-master is making the point that there are consequences and qualifications–no simple answers.
Will we look back and say the massive Fed deficit was a great idea; or should we have allowed interest rates return to market determined levels?
Possible, but what is the point in dabbling in counterfactual histories (hindsights) when it is the present we live in and the future we can control or at least try to plan for?
The resistance to market determined ANYTHING is rooted in the inequality and fundamental unfairness of the actual history. If the greedy 1% wants market forces to determine things like supply and demand, price discovery, income distribution, etc. then they better find a way to make things the workers toil at function for them as well, healthcare, education, democracy, environment, and security in which rights are actually universal and and nobody knows poverty. All profits after that they can deal with as the situation fits, but as long as these fundamentals go unmet we are on a path to destruction.
In my sixties I have come to the conclusion that we really are nothing but farm animals, owned outright by the 1%, and like any farmer they have to take a certain level of care for their beats, or those will die, become sick, refuse to do their work, and of course under the right economic conditions we are expendable.
So, our farmers are continuously probing the margins of how to get work out of us at the least economic cost, and in order to know they have gone too far they actually have to occassionally go too far till they see their livelyhood threatened and they can then pull back just enough to keep us productive.
I suppose southern plantation owners are the best example, they motivated their slaves with usually a combination of carrot and stick, the carrots were small and dirty, tasteless, but carrots all the same, it kept them alive. The stick was a horsewhip and certain proof that they were property not people. The only difference now is that they use clever marketing to conceal the fact that we really are not free men and women. That is to say in reality we have no rights, just priviledges we can enjoy by not making too many waves.
So once again it comes down to wealth inequality because money is power, and when 1% of households own 85% of the wealth then they have 85% of the power. When 50% of the households have 1.9% of the wealth than a full one half of us have so little power we can not even negotiate something as simple as having our votes counted. Yet we will look at the news tonight and no matter the outcome be fooled into thinking we actually made that choice.
Life is a shit sandwich and the more bread you have the less shit you have to eat. Ask someone who knows, Donal Trump. And his pals Jeffery Epstein (well Maxwell will have to do since Epstein ate the big sandwich).
*privileges Hope we get the EDIT function back soon!
Has anyone tried drawing the probability distribution of a singular event. like the nation splitting? Call me stupid, but I believe it is a DISCRETE EVENT, not a continuous distribution of possible outcomes. If so, there are NO tails, fat or thin! Incidentally, the same is true of black/white swans.
The probability may be infinitesimally small (absurd?), but it exists.
Next, the impact of such a tiny event is likely to vary from very bad to very good, in terms of GDP, for example. Those outcomes would have a continuous distribution, with tails. It is likely to be skewed (kurtosis)–ie ‘fat tailed’.
Let’s get it right. Nation division is highly unlikely, with possible dramatic results.
I can go along with your analysis CA, and I certainly HOPE we find a way out of this mess, I think tonight will be a good (maybe only chance) start. First we have to suck out the poison, we have been snakebit and it will kill us if we can’t remove most of the venom. FAST!
I am not in favor of a breakup of the USA, I just am also not all that optimistic we can avoid it. There is so much we would have to overcome, and the frustrating part is it does not need to be this way. I think the far right and the far left which both have grown in power and numbers have some valid points to make and that both are rooted in the terminal cancer of wealth inequality. I think if we solve that we solve the major differences in this nation and heal most wounds. Fail to solve it and we can sit back and watch the deterioration advance just as a cancer advances without chemo. It is the one overriding urgent problem we simply cannot get addressed and we will solve none of our other problems till we get this right. Climate change? How the F are we going to pay for that when we have so many in poverty? You name the problem and the answer is going to be the same, first priority needs to be about economic justice or the rest of the problems are just fluff and background.
Seeing as you brought up climate change… How does one test an hypothesis involving the change in a statistical variance/standard deviation of a climate variable–say temperature?
With global warming, the mean global temperature must increase with some reasonable confidence. I wonder why we stopped talking about ‘global warming’ all of a sudden and shifted to climate change.
For the mindless masses, any weather event (increased rain, decreased rain, more hurricanes, fewer hurricanes etc) will prove the hypothesis.
Is climate really changing or are we being conned?
I agree with that as well. I have long held that climate change is a very long cyclical process that would be happening with or without man and his carbon generating industry and transportation, and that is not my opinion or theory, it is documented fact that the climate swings back and forth and has for billions of years before we ever existed.
At best you could say convincingly that if we are impacting the climate seriously it is just speeding up a natural process already underway. That we cannot stop it, but even if we could find an economical way to negate our carbon impact that does not mean we will enjoy a steady global average temperature of 59* F for the rest of time.
But, if you wish to taste the bitter juices of the brainwashed unthinking masses just try explaining to them that the only economical way to lower our impact is to lower our population. Because no matter how much you reduce the carbon footprints the unthinking brainwashed cannot be convinced that their own reproductive habits have any impact at all, in short, they are going to fuck their way to so many footprints that shrinking each one will never overcome the sheer numbers of them.
As a result we will be on an ever declining standard of living till one day we are back to where man started, mud huts and catching dinner with sticks, only there will be so many billions of us that dinner will all die out for lack of habitat.
We are so far beyond what the planet reasonably has for a carrying capacity that we better up our technological game and real soon, for one thing if we are going to ensure survival of the species we have to figure out how to build new homes “OUT THERE!” And then get it right this time.
By the way, the switch from Anthropogenic (man made) Global Warming to Climate Change was very simply a marketing decision made because man made global warming was a flawed model, for one thing there was sufficient evidence that the planet is not really warming, or at least that warming was so uneven people were just not buying it. Then there was the whole implied guilt problem, saying that it is a HUMAN CAUSED only problem and thus only human intervention can fix it was causing way too many people to revolt against their plans. It essentially locked poor nations like Bangladesh into permanent lack of development and poverty, and more generally locked the poor in developed nations like the US into their own personal poverty as opportunity was sacrificed for the sake of limiting climate issues. Notice that does not stop the jet setters from fouling the atmosphere with endless tons of carbon to get to Milan in time to see the latest fasions, or to Bali for an extended colon cleanse, or to Aspen for this year’s great powder. While you and I work for a year to get what they spend on a single garment made in a Trumped up sweat shop on the other side of the world.
Your response raises the issue of population control. All said and done, it is the only thing that makes sense until mass-exodus from Earth to other planets is possible.
I’m told that the planet can sustain a maximum of 2-3 billion people with a standard of living approximating that of the USA/Europe. In fact, the number is likely lower in a capitalist economy as robots take on more human work–ergo, the world needs new economic systems, changing value systems etc.
Actually Gundlach isn’t the only one to propose such an idea. Elliott Wave International has been studying patterns of social behavior that span thousands of years and alerted people to the very real possibility of a US fracture near the end of the next great global bear market. The election won’t be THE event that causes a fracture, but it has already been one of many steps in a long process.
Where can i read about it?
It is way past time for the US to disintegrate. I already boycott the red states and I want nothing to do with anyone who lives there. Most people feel the same way.
Most shit weasels flock together and spew whatever bullshit they think you will believe just like Trump the king of bankruptcy & King of nothing!..His shit stinks like all the rest and he should stick that thumb right up his ass, Bloviating buffoons only care about themselves and increasing the debt service of others and our country!.. Digital Assets are the new game! Better buy Bitcoin!..
Edit function not working
Gunlach is one of the most intelligent investors out there. These guys often speak in hyperbole. There’s no video so its hard to read his body language
Correction. The currency of the secessionists becomes worthless and their bonds voided.
Let’s face it, our debt bloated western model was already at the end of its wits way before the pandemic, just imagine the beyond proportion economic disaster that has been generated in recent months ! Keeping up appearances with out of the blue created helicopter money, cannot and will not go on for ever, our financial system is reaching a critical point, not to say that it is on the brink of collapse, a total meltdown is in the cards, when we reach that point ANYTHING is possible : the end of democracy, civil wars, world war etc…Pfffff, too pessimistic probably, it is a cool sunny morning here in Belgium, better go out for a walk, that s about all we can do, locked down as we are….
I completely agree–especially with your ‘ANYTHING is possible’ events. Luckily, mean regression applies (sort of) so the more extreme the event, the lower the probability of the event occurring.
Meanwhile while it wait for the stuff to hit the fan, I’ll enjoy my Belgian Schipperke–a fabulous dog breed.
a cute faithfull, yet noisy, little ‘bastard’ ….did you know that ‘schipperke’ means little boatsman ? They were very often kept on the goods transporting river vessels, to chase rats and mice….that’s why…
Taz (from Tasmanian Devil) lives on a sailboat. Your “a cute faithful, yet noisy, little ‘bastard’” is very accurate. As for ‘little boatsman’, she is very sure-footed aboard, although with Covid-19, she has yet to experience sailing offshore. Perhaps in two months we’ll go to the Bahamas.
To stay on topic, I’m less worried about a national division than a global fiat debt implosion–debt created without any real production, merely accounting entries, yet requiring near-zero interest rates to maintain it. I suspect we are witnessing the early stages.
The ‘fat-tail’ effect is theoretically present in interest-rate probability distributions, effectively bounded near zero by rational behavior, and unbounded on the upside, for example, a gamma distribution, very skewed to the upside (eg. risk free, 1 year rate).
The ‘normal’ risk-free IR includes a real rate (2-3%) and inflation (2-3%). That is a ‘normal’ rate on 1-year risk free debt should be 5-6%. With the fat tail, at near-zero interest rates, the probability of higher rates is thru-the-roof (Fed statements notwithstanding). In addition, it becomes increasingly difficult to hold rates near zero. Right now, risk aversion and the inflow of foreign capital enable near zero rates. Exchange rates and dollar desirability are changing slowly. As interest rates start to increase even slightly, present value will magnify the fat-tail impact. The result: fast-moving repricing of debt downwards–an implosion.
I am sure that Gundlach knows what some leaders and some billionaires think because that is the group which he frequents. It’s also the group that is in constant hubris mode . Some like Gavin Newsom have hinted at a split up if their candidate is defeated and they probably fantasize about it at home in bed. Unfortunately they have little idea of what the person on the street thinks about a split. Perhaps they talked to some taxis drivers, a doorman of two and of course their gardener and poolboy. They have certainly read reports written by experts on what the common man thinks. When you get down to it they are pretty much clueless but it does help the conversation along in cocktail parties and gives them something to say in talk shows.
I say why is the idea “absurd?”
Requires a Vote in 2021 on Whether California Should Become an Independent Country. Initiative Statute.
Of course there is no doubt that this ballot initiative will fail to get on the ballot, and if it made it to the voting boots in the state it would die there, but you cannot say people are not thinking about it.
We have lived through four years where the right cheated to get into power after 8 years of Obama’s presidency, and they have made it crystal clear they have no intention of being citizens of a nation that can have a Obama presidency ever again, nor pretty much any democrat presidency.
The things they do and say in the name of their cult leader in turn leaves the MAJORITY of Americans saying they never want to be in the same nation with Trump type cult leaders and their drooling fascist bots.
You think that is just going to go away? You think the left/center majority is just going to tolerate this situation forever? The US has a revolutionary past, our own constitution and preamble to it decalres that we the people can and will rise up from the yoke of tyranny to form a more perfect union. Not just words, and we may just get to a situation where our irreconcilable differences lead to divorce.
In the US south they demanded that divorce in the name of their brutal practice of slavery, while Lincoln and the North said NO, a war was fought and it was the most brutal and mechanized bloody battle in world history to that date. It astonished the Europeans and put the US on the map for it’s willingness to kill and burn without mercy.
We are at or getting close to that same level of emnity again and even the actors are roughly the same. Rural backwards and conservative against urban educated liberals.
Yet you now say the idea that a state or group of states leaving is absurd.
You are going to have to do a much longer post on this to explain exactly how you come to this conclusion.
It doesn’t matter what you think personally. What matters is what percentage of the population in your area thinks like you. I would presume that a vote county by county would have to take place. The South did that before succeeding. Some counties, perhaps the majority, would vote no so you would have to impose by force on them your wish for secession. How would you do that? The California National Guard is integrated with the US Military and ha nothing to do with what the state militias in 1860. They wouldn’t follow. Would the police forces in the cites follow? I doubt it so who is left to enforce secession? Mexican cartels maybe? Do you really think that the federal government hasn’t been looking at this problem since, well 1860? Secession movements are the first groups infiltrated as are domestic terrorist groups. In the Civil War people were willing to fight and die because they had a strong reason. Today there is no chattel slavery in the US. Today there is not that strong enough reason to be willing to fight and die for. Of course you can find some who would but how many? I doubt you would find enough to fill a stadium out of 330 million.
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“Under the U.S. Constitution, each state’s National Guard unit is controlled by the governor in time of peace but can be called up for federal duty by the president. The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 forbids U.S. troops from being deployed on American soil for law enforcement.”
So I suppose it would be up to the individuals in the Guard to decide if they will obey the president as commander in chief, or to refuse to recognize that president’s authority since they deem themselves no longer citizens of his country.
The above description of is in control of the guards by the way is partial in that there is an exception to the Posse Commitatus, the president has the authority to invoke the Insurrection Act.
Here is a decent analysis of the two if you are interested. It basically explains why the Posse Comitatus Act is irrelevant and why the Insurrection Act is the governing law. It also shows the evolution of that act from its beginning in 1792 to modifications under Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Grant. It is only a couple pages so not too taxing.
Sorry but today I have no edit function and a chunk of what I wrote is missing.
I just wanted to say that it is not just the right of the President of the US to decide when and what constitutes insurrection, but the duty of both congress and the presidents to make sure that a situation in the states does not get to the point of insurrection, and in this matter the people not only also have rights but the ultimate right to act in their own best interests.
We saw Donald Trump use federal forces (in the guise of the DHS, using tactical gear and unmarked vehicles) to subdue “insurrection” and in this what he is trying to do it redefine the Act far beyond it’s original meaning and scope to include vandalism in otherwise peaceful protests, graffiti on buildings and the pulling down of monuments repugnant to the people. He did this specifically to make precedent for his administration to widen the scope of the law to pretty much delete gubinatorial authority in their own states, particularly that of Governor Brown of Oregon.
We should all be afraid of this Trumpian use of force because it is dictatorial in nature. It bypasses much of the authority of anyone else to decide and control situations that while they are not comfortable to watch or deal with, are still the right of the people to make their voice heard. Trump only hears what he likes and that is limited to praise of him as our Dear Leader. Meanwhile the people took to the street because their right of redress of grievances has been utterly ignored. Particularly the militarization and lawless behavior of police. The legal concept that they are basically immune no matter what they do even when they are proven to be motivated by baseless suspicion and racist belief.
As we are about to see the division between those who accept Trump and his flouting of the rights of citizens and the rule of law in favor of a fascist cult of personality, verses those that reject him and his support, is stark beyond measuring.
Today (or within the next couple days) we will see that X number of people support Trump, and as we know that support is both violent and unshakable (those who still support him it appears know no boundary of decency or law, those who can be shaken away from the Trump tree have already fallen away) and that a far larger majority do not support him. Nobody here has any doubts about the extent of the popular vote going to Biden. The Trumpist cult will deny it saying the vote was rigged even where they have zero evidence of that.
Anyone who thinks the two camps are actually going smile and shake hands and join with their opponents at this point is in denial, or flat out crazy. We see Trump has mobilized his “army” to go to the polls to intimidate voters, illegal as hell but none of them and Trump least of all care. Because Trump knows if he loses he is very unlikely to breath free air again. He will either be in prison or spend his life and fortune defending against that outcome. If Biden pardons him “for the sake of unity” he will have lost nearly all of his base of support and become a lame duck in his first term just as Gerry Ford did when he pardoned Nixon for that reason.
The left might be open to accepting the hatred and snotty fascist right as long as they agree not to try to cause problems and work within the system, but none believe they will agree to that and we have seen far too much lawlessness at the behest of Trump, and worse it is organized as demonstrated by the plot to kidnap and kill Governor Whitmer in MI, a plot we now know was both wider and included other governors and states besides MI.
On the other hand the made up boogeyman the right calls Antifa and BLM was not particularly organized and represented spontaneous demonstrations that were a reaction to police and administration excesses. They just as spontaneously petered out. They are not the ones using safe houses in other states to avoid the gaze of the law, or encrypted emails and calls to plan their actions like the right wing militias and fanatical groups like proud boys. There is no left equivalent of the insane QAnon phenomenon.
We see what is going on on the right and can only conclude it is slavery and suicide NOT to try to stop them. Again you will see this expressed in the vast gulf between the popular vote totals of the two sides this evening even if we do not yet know the outcome of the electoral college.
It was a modification of the Insurrection Act that the congress passed in 1861 (without participation of southern states) that became the legal basis for Lincoln to pursue the Civil War. And the Confederacy might have become a lasting reality or at least a self governing sub unit of the US had they not fired on Fort Sumpter. Because there is one thing that is explicitly stated in the constitution, the government can only govern by the consent of the governed. The right has made clear they will not be governed by the left, and now in case you have missed 2020 let me make this clear, the left will not be governed by Trump or fascism.
So the idea that the United States could break up is not absurd at all, I would say that it remains one nation will at this point take a small miracle. And that once the sagging floor of our democracy so soiled now by the Trump administration that openly calls for insurgency on the part of the minority right against the majority left, who has made a mockery of rule of law, once that floor starts to give way the whole house will inevitably fall. And I might point out that there is ample evidence that there are more than a few outside nations pushing on it. Mostly speaking russian but many others as well. They want the US to break up, particularly Putin who has made the breakup of the US a personal vendetta, in spite of the fact that he cannot predict where that will lead, and with a nuclear armed opponent that is a very dangerous game.
I have thought a lot about this and say that the inevitable consequences will be – if this cannot be stopped – a city state model of independent but allied and cooperating cities controlling their surrounding land mass. Rural areas may be a bastion of conservative belief, but they also have 15% of the population and almost no real wealth other than the land they walk. Since that is where food comes from the cities will simply reach out and take what they need to survive when it is embargoed from them, and it will be. That and water resources.
What will it take to stop it? A good start is the truth about who is really behind this pushing on the structure of our democracy, but that will only convince a few Trump supporters, for the well of truth was the very first thing he poisoned.
Thanks for the paper Herk. I already knew that the president can use federal troops withing the country to counter insurrection. You didn’t answer any of my questions. Instead you gave me a pipe dream about independent city states being viable. May I point out that industrial production takes place outside of cities now. So does energy production as well as water delivery. To control the hinderland the city would have to invade it and that needs armed forces. What makes you think that the local national guard would go along with your idea? City states on the sea had navies to control their commerce. What would you do for a navy? Cites these day have no production within their limits however they do have lots of white-collar jobs for basically organising production which takes place outside. As you said at the end your dream depends on the city invading the countryside and taking what it wants. You have no credible means of doing that except a vague wish that a mayor or governor gives an order and everyone obeys. That has been the downfall of many a self-proclaimed separatist. Modern cities are very vulnerable and people know it. Look how many have left them since the pandemic started. If there was a hint of your city declaring independence you would see most of the brains and wealth getting out leaving behind only those who can’t escape. Perhaps that is what you want. To be the warlord ruling over those stuck there.
In a battle between urban regions and the rural regions that surround them we are talking 85% of the population V 15% of the population. Manufacturing may take place to some small degree in rural areas but those will simply be claimed by the cities/states. Let’s see if the 15% thinks they can beat the 85% and do not forget that if those rural workers who provide the food and work in the odd outlander factory expect to survive those factories need consumers and customers or their factories are dead as an empty grain silo. Cities will control transportation. The military assets of the cities and states will be claimed by the new City/state entities.
Rural red places will be far worse off than under the current federal system. Places like greater southern California or northern California would have no problem at all raising all the army the need.
Also, you would see the whole west coast bond into an alliance if not in fact a nation. And that alliance would pact with other nations.
City states as a concept actually CONTROL the entire regions around them as Sparta did, as Athens did, the city was the core and they controlled whatever land around them they needed for food, water, and transport.
What would I do for a navy? Take the one that is sitting right there in Bremerton, San Diego, LA, what about an air force? You mean like the Lockheed works in Palmdale? Or Boeing up in Washington state? And all the air bases, if the US has ceased to be viable or functional the ASSETS of the US would get divvied up among those most powerful to take them, and that will be population centers.
2020 has illustrated one thing.
The absurd can soon become the norm.
I believe Abraham Lincoln has already addressed this possibility.
I very much enjoyed this succinct and droll statement. Bravo!
I have not read or listened to the Gundlach interview so I don’t know whether or not he has put a time line to his prediction.
Given the fiscal impasse the West finds itself in however, why discount the possibility, if not the probability, that the current composition of federated states in the USA should change significantly in the near future?
Political geography has never been static.
He seems to be referring to an orderly split, which is definitely absurd. An eventual US breakup is entirely possible, but it could only happen in a chaotic financial/social collapse in the midst of a global crisis. The whole central banking network would fall with us.
A split wouldn’t be anything simple like red/blue, it would much more likely be a splintering into numerous pieces. It would be a total meltdown and is definitely not something to strive for. If people are upset with “the other side” I suggest they look at how people are being intentionally driven apart into ideological silos. The little people aren’t the root cause of the problem, the perpetrators are at the top of our hierarchy.
There was no provision in the Constitution of the Soviet Union to break down the union. But it still broke down.
The Soviets had a long-standing legitimacy problem. It was fundamentally a conquered empire, held together by force, terror and mass murder. Its centrifugal impetus was immense.
Whatever its flaws, the US doesn’t have a legitimacy problem. And though Trumpism has damaged its institutions, those institutions have not been damaged to the point of rupture. For example, there’s zero chance that the military will dictate who governs. Bad news for fascists!
Any attempt to secede by any state will be rebuffed in very short order.
There are a lot of dog whistles going on from Wall Street/Billionaires no matter the political stripes, the electoral acrimony will present challenges for the status quo, a completely new country ? Doubt it, but a less federalized country may be in the cards due to extremely ideological splits may be in the cards.
The majority of the judicial/legislative/executive establishment both Dem and GOP is for the most part focused on ridding themselves of Trump at the moment, even the judges he appointed will not rule favorably for him if it means destabilization for the status quo as their livelihood and safety depend on a functioning republic where political issues are solved via a political process rather than the alternatives. None of these judges is going to put themselves on actual line for ideology. This is not Bush V. Gore, that verdict is not politically possible in 2020, I’m sure the supremes are praying for the election not to be close, because if it comes down to it , they are going to hand it to Biden.
Even if Trump loses it’s going to be real hard to put the horse back in the barn as the advent of social media is driving tribalism/conspiracy theories to new levels, this is something truly unprecedented in a Republic, expect some heavy regulation to come down on social media companies with regards to politics no matter the political party, but even this won’t really work as the personal is now political in the U.S.A. A lot of work is going to need to be done in order to keep this country “ideologically together”.
Highly unlikely that the US would split, but let’s play along with Gundlach.
Dollars would be instantly void and US bonds would be worthless.
Like Confetti.