Treasury Secretary Bessent is a bad liar. Clowns portray it as 5D chess.
Lie of the Day and Hoot of the Day
Bessent: “This was driven by the President’s strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday and this was his strategy all along. And you might even say that he goaded China into a bad position. It wasn’t a hard message. Don’t retaliate and things will turn out well.”
Competing Theories
- Trump concocts ridiculous definition of “reciprocal” to goad China into retaliating. Socks and bonds crashed in response. And China will stop buying agricultural goods from the US. But that’s OK because Trump will again to bail out US farmers, with taxes collected from US citizens via tariffs to bail out the farmers but no one else. This is 5D chess.
- Trump capitulated with a 90-day pause reacting to the plunge in stock and bond markets.
If you are economically dense as a brick of lead, or you are afflicted with a massive and uncurable case of TDS Type II (Trump can do no wrong), then you believe this is all part of a master plan.
Unfortunately close to half the nation is economically as dense as lead or believes in laughable 5D chess theories.
What About Farmers?
In 2018 Trump administration introduced $16 billion (~$19.1 billion in 2023) of new trade aid. In 2019, the Donald Trump administration increased the bailout to $16 billion (~$18.8 billion in 2023).
Two days ago the Wall Street Journal reported Trump Team Will Consider Aid to Farmers, Agriculture Secretary Says
The Trump administration is weighing financial aid to America’s farmers to mitigate any negative effects from President Trump’s tariff program, Brooke Rollins, the U.S. agriculture secretary, said Sunday.
“We have to be prepared that if there is longer-term damage…that we have the funds in working with the senators and working with the appropriators that we can do what we did last time,” Rollins said on CNN. The federal government sent about $23 billion to compensate farmers during Trump’s first term. Trump’s first trade war led to more than $27 billion in losses of agricultural exports, according to USDA research.
Farm Progress
There was $27 billion in damages to farmers under the then pissy (compared to now) tariffs on China.
Now, China will get all the soybeans and corn etc. from Brazil instead of the US.
FarmFutures reports Key Brazil Port bustles as China poised to shift away From U.S.
Trump’s trade war may have crushed global commodity prices, but it’s good news for one of Brazil’s largest ports, which is seeing an uptick in export volumes.
Porto do Açu in Rio de Janeiro state, the country’s No. 1 oil export port, was already investing in extra capacity to help resolve trading bottlenecks in agriculture and minerals. Tariff-induced distortions in global trade are now providing an additional boost, it says.
“When the threats started, demand started to rise,” João Braz, the port’s terminals and logistics director, said in an interview. “We’re in a really good position here.”
How the 5D Plan Works
- Collect taxes from US consumers via massive increases in tariffs. Claim they will fund tax cuts, bring jobs back, and balance the budget, not noting the contradictions.
- Goad China into a response.
- US agricultural exports suffer.
- Pay the farmers tens of billons of dollars with money collected from US consumers via tariffs.
- Explain this was part of the master plan.
Bessent is bragging that over 50 countries want to negotiate. Well la de da. Of course they do, but in practice it’s impossible because of Trump’s idiotic definition of reciprocal.
White House Formula for Reciprocal Tariffs
I discussed the Trump’s idiotic definition of reciprocal on April 3, 2025 in What’s the White House Formula for Calculating the Huge Tariffs?
Essentially it boils down to ((imports – exports) / imports) * 0.50
So reciprocal tariffs have nothing to do with tariffs at all.
Trump assumes any trade deficit with the US is proof of cheating and such countries are taking advantage of the US. But please note that the US is cheating Brazil and Australia because we have a surplus with them.
To get around this, Trump assigned a minimum 10 percent tariff on the world.
Error in the Formula
There are two other variables in the formula but they cancel out. They shouldn’t. The result is that even if one agrees with the concept, reciprocal is about 4 times overstated.
For example, reciprocal for Vietnam should be 12.2% and not 46%.
I have been meaning to do a post on this, but am finding it very difficult to keep up with everything I want to write about.
Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
On March 12, I commented Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
We have an annual trade deficit of $918 billion.
Team Trump proposes $918 billion in “reciprocal tariffs” to make the trade deficit go away.
But to balance the budget and eliminate personal income taxes, Trump would need to collect $7 trillion in tariffs on a net trade deficit of $918 billion.
I would love to hear a detailed explanation of exactly how that works.
Are you ready for that miracle? Me too. But wait, there are still more benefits to this amazing deal.
Trumps Claims
- Tariffs will increase revenue enough to balance the budget
- Tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US
- Tariffs will reduce inflation
- Tariffs will increase exports
Conflicting Economic Madness
Points 1 and 2 conflict. Tariffs cannot simultaneously bring back manufacturing and raise enough revenue to balance the budget.
Points 2 and 3 conflict. Since the US is one of the world’s highest cost producer of goods thanks to unions, tariffs will not reduce inflation.
Points 2 and 4 conflict. Since the US is one of the world’s highest cost producer of goods, and other countries will retaliate, tariffs will not increase exports.
Today, I wonder how the flying F we are going to do all that with a 90-day pause but a another bailout of farmers.
Nothing is Fixed
If Trump sticks with his definition of reciprocal or something close, negotiations are not going anywhere.
And contrary to popular myth the US does not hold all the cards.
I explained why earlier today in China Retaliates with 84% Tariffs on the US, Most Trade Will Stop
Supply chains everywhere are disrupted. US farmers will be bailed out, again.
Understanding Rare Earths
At present China produces 60 percent of the world’s rare earths but processes nearly 90 percent, which means that it is importing rare earths from other countries and processing them. This has given China a near monopoly.
According to the United States Geological Survey, China has been supplying 54 percent of the germanium used by the United States, a material used in infrared technology and fiber optics.
The United States has not mined its own gallium, used in semiconductors, since 1987. Japan supplies 26 percent of American imports of gallium, China 21 percent and Germany 19 percent, along with several smaller suppliers.
Antimony (Sb), a critical metalloid, is a key element of the American war machine, essential for communication equipment, night vision goggles, explosives, ammunition, nuclear weapons, submarines, warships, optics, laser sighting and more, according to U.S. Army Major General (retired) James Marks.
China controls nearly 50% of the global antimony supply.
Related Posts
November 21, 2024: China’s Puts Export Curbs on Minerals US Needs for Weapons and Technology
In a warning shot to the Trump administration, China tightens export controls on some dual-use minerals.
December 3, 2024: China Halts Rare Exports Used by US Technology Companies and the Military
This is China’s advance salvo at Trump tariffs. It comes one day after the Biden administration expanded curbs on the sale of advanced American technology to China.
And on April 4, 2025 China retaliated by restricting exports of seven types of rare earths.
China can easily block rare earth exports to the world. If that happens, Trump will panic.
We should not be in this position, but we are.
Conclusion
If after reading this, you still really think this was Trump’s master plan, congratulations for having a brain as dense as lead.
Mike I generally like your posts but really think this one is poor form for two reasons. One, how do you know its a lie – don’t think accusing someone of a lie is good opinion unless you have reasonable evidence or can read minds, and Two, it’s WELL known that Trump goads people into traps. He’s done it countless times with democrats and world leaders.
Mish has been getting a bit hot under the collar recently – well, more than usual.
And again Mish. Trump takes one side (Everyone’s been ripping us off! No negotiations! These Tariffs are permanent), playing the tough guy and denigrating the “other” (whoever the “other” is). Then, lo and behold, option 1 didn’t work, and he “saves the day” by backing down and doing a 180.
Then tells us that was the plan all along and claims victory. Different day, same Trump.
PT Barnum, that’s all it is… you need one to run a circus.
This thread has turned into a power bottom orgy of TDS. The whining is epic.
Season 2025 of Pax Dumbfuckistan: Zion Don goes Schizo
The USA has all the Bona Fides of a Banana Republic now.
Trump promised business that he would cut government regulations. Instead, he is regulating through trade practices:
Selling into this rally is the most rational thing to do. 90 days until his next temper tantrum. The only thing you can count on with trump is chaos.
I have no confidence is anything trump says. He has proven himself to be a serial liar.
The entire world just told trump to negotiate with their middle finger.
Trump has to be careful. Karma is undefeated.
The amount of winning is unbelievable
You make it seem like China is just swimming along. The headlines are China’s yuan closed at its weakest level in over 17 years on Wednesday and The Shanghai Composite Index lost 7% on Monday in its worst day in five years, reeling after the U.S. imposed extra tariffs of 34% on China last week.
If you want to make the case that the USA and China both lost, have at it. You seem to think China is in the driver’s site. And the rare earths thing? Come on, man.
https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/042a84aa-b6d3-59cf-bf52-9b2ca7b35a23
“Rare earths are not that rare,” Marty Weems, the president for North America of American Rare Earths, tells fDi.
In short, if you put the money in, you can produce the so called rare but not really rare earths. Rare earths are a question of finance not scarcity. The Chinese were just producing them more cheaply than others.
As for “If you are economically dense as a brick of lead, or you are afflicted with a massive and uncurable case of TDS Type II (Trump can do no wrong), then you believe this is all part of a master plan.”
“Unfortunately close to half the nation is economically as dense as lead or believes in laughable 5D chess theories.”
Wall Street did not believe that Trump was willing to crash the economy to get what he wanted. He said he was going to, and the market did not believe him. So he puts his tariffs into place and the market crashes. By putting in tariffs at 80 and 90%, no one in the market is objecting to 10% tariffs. Heck, the market rallied on that and the nose bleed high tariffs on China. That is the art of the deal.
When you want to sell something for $10, you start at $100. That way when the person buys said item for $10 (or more), they think they got a bargain. If you start at $10, then they think that they could have gotten it cheaper.
So if you think Trump is crazy versus rational, then you have already lost.
Trump is determined to balance the federal budget and correct our trade deficits. That is what he wants his legacy to be, and I think solving those issues are critical to our economy. The disappointment for me is when he has not followed through. The defense department is not riddled with waste? LOL. Okay.
And I would be willing to vote for a Democrat with a better plan than Trump, they just do not have one outside of racking up more and more debt.
This is only a partial capitulation. A 125% tariff on China & 10% tariff on the rest of the world is still a huge deal, and if this had been the announcement on liberation day markets might have crashed just as badly as they did. Perhaps markets are taking it as a sign of the start of a full capitulation that will be followed by face saving agreements.
All you geniuses who imagine you can flip a switch and factories will magically pop up and start production next week, need to read this, from a guy who has actually managed, built and run factories in many countries, he knows what he is talking about, you don’t:
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
https://x.com/molson_hart/status/1908940952908996984
read that before you flap your jaw
758D Underwater Inter-Dimensional Trump Chess:
announce Policy A in the morning, say it’s “Firm”, then reverse it in the afternoon, then announce Policy B (same as A, but moar cowbell), then put it on hold for 30 days, then in the afternoon, reverse it, then the next day reduce it to 10% of A with less cowbell, then 2 hours later put it on hold for 90 days…..
What part don’t you understand?
It’s simple, he’s just outplayed everyone, inluding himself – “Winning Bigly!”
758D was so last week. It’s interstellar chess now.
It’s poker, not chess.
Let him win on paper.
He needs to show the report card to his audience.
I hear China has stopped buying US bonds. That could end up being a nuke right up our backside, should that cause a dislocation. Maybe Mish will do piece on it.
China has reduced its US Treasury holdings noticeably for the last 5 years.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/19/which-foreign-countries-bought-the-recklessly-ballooning-us-debt-increasingly-crucial-question-many-piled-it-up-cleanest-dirty-shirt/
At some point the Fed will have to do what the Japanese central bank does.
China masks its bond ownership across various entities like SoEs. Mish has mentioned this countless times. Yields were spiking most probably from basis trade liquidations at large leveraged hedge funds.
So it is off topic. It’s also more important in the long run than the tariff headfake. But seemingly you’ve stopped writing about the court issues.
Hmmm.
SCOTUS is reeling in the rogue judges. Much more to come. Trump will win 90% or more of the cases filed. They are all bogus.
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/08/nx-s1-5351799/scotus-probationary-workers
He’s a convicted felon. Rangling in the courts is he? Good god you cult folks are just insane.
Wrangling. That whole “convicted felon” thing is a joke. A Manhattan jury would have convicted him of the Lincoln assassination if he’d been charged with it. Swing voters disregarded it because they knew it was a joke. Not everyone who voted for Trump gives him a pass on everything. Thinking 49% of 2024 voters are insane is … insane.
Nope. Large groups of fascists can be wrong a lot. Not complicated.
What was the crime he was convicted of?
Trump is such a great guy, for traders. In the Futures and Crypto matkets. Just need to be in the right position as to Long or Short. And be quick to cut loss and go the other way when one isn’t correct initially.
You have to be Long, Short, and neutral, alternately, and then do the opposite every 2 hours
Mish, you act like everything is static. It’s not. Things are moving. LightPath Technologies, out of Orlando, FL, is making military optical equipment using chalcogenide to build equipment that needs no Germanium. A lot of countries, including the US, have antimony deposits. By restricting export of it, Germanium, and other rare earths, the Chinese are promoting competition with themselves. Probably not the best idea. The US, Canada, Mexico, and a lot of other friendly (well, mostly friendly) countries have rare earth minerals in the ground. The geniuses in the Chinese government are sewing the seeds of their own irrelevance. Soon, they will lift the restrictions and cut the price. Hopefully, it will be too late. I love the defeatism of you and most of your commenters. Orange man bad. Yeah, yeah. Please step aside.
please tell us how fast these mines will come into production then tell us who processes the minerals,
Get a grip and dump your TDSII
lol! On point! Damn!
It goes far beyond mines and production. There needs to be an entire ecosystem built around this activity including construction, repair, maintenance, shipping & distribution, roads, technology, utilities, etc.
Most importantly, who (labor) is going to mine this stuff with trump booting all the cheap labor out?
The biggest irony is this statement though, “Mish, you act like everything is static. It’s not.”
That’s right, nothing is static which means China and everyone isn’t going to simply sit on their laurels, China will react, maybe give away rare earths for free to bankrupt all these other players the way OPEC had hamstrung US oil production for a long time before things change.
The free market ultimately decides winners and losers not central planners.
With the Mountain Pass mine in California and MP Refining the US will be self-sufficient in Light Rare Earths by 2026-2027. Heavy Rare Earths are a different matter. There are several mines around the world and several projects funded for more however the bottleneck is refining the Heavy Rare Earths. China has a quasi-monopoly on the refining technology and they are not going to share it with us. Five to seven years is what is projected till we are self-sufficient in refining the heavy stuff. There are some new refining technologies that are very promising but generally we will have to rely on stockpiles for a while.
you keep posting this, it sounds good, in theory
call back when you have large scale refined product ready for industry to use….we’ll be waiting for that call, around 2032, maybe
in the mean time, companies who need that refined rare earths now, to make products, will have long since gone out of business
Doug, again, great post. It’s simply amazing that you get 3 down votes for having a positive outlook for US REM.
It’s just unbelievable at the loathing of our country here on Mishtalk. Sure, I get hating Trump, but reactions to your post are downright un-American.
Why would anyone not want the US to remove our dependence on Chinese REM and all sorts of strategic goods like pharma, electronics for military equipment, etc?
Thanks Jay.
https://www.mining.com/the-only-five-rare-earth-elements-that-matter/
Australia, USA, Sweden, RSA, Malaysia,
Alaska; also Wyoming, and Nebraska, USA.
Refining in Belgium and France.
What if? The BRICS and others make a pact to stop trade with USA, stop using the USD, refusing to buy anymore US debt? They all trade with one another with out tariffs or restrictions and invite Mexico, Canada and Europe to join. By the time Trump is gone natural or not it will be too late. USA would eventually thrive, but unfettered capitalism would be gone, billionaires would be gone and the middle-class would expand exponentially.
So, your message seems to be that we should just stay on the road that we’ve been on. Bidenomics forever? MMT? Both put us on a speeding train headed for a wall. You’ll say, I never said that,” but that’s the implication. If we try to restore a more durable destiny in an orderly manner, using our entrenched bureaucracy and corrupt legislature, it will never happen.
dude exports to the USA are about 5% of China GDP, if you count side exports through Vietnam etc too. They can eliminate exports to the USA if they want to, they’ll take the hit, and move on.
The USA is 13% of global demand, at best, trending to 12%, 11%, 10%…rapidly under Trump…the ROTW of the world will happily sell to the other 88% and growing, and save themselves the migraine of trying to deal with demented Americans who change the rules daily. Business like certainty,and America is the opposite of certainty, The Empire of.Uncertainty. By the time your shipment arrives in America, you may lose the entire cost to antoher tariff, and more.
And who do you imagine in their right mind will invest in the USA, when the rules may get changed tomorrow, or next week, or maybe every week, or month? Flip a coin, it’s about the only way to determine what to do…or maybe you’ll just invest somewhere else, and save yourself the headache.
What? It’s 5% now? Somewhere below you claimed it is 3-4.5%. What is it, Fubar? Get to the correct answer, please!
Half the rare earths are outside of China, like in Brazil, Australia, Vietnam… and whilst it will take time to get them up and running, it’s a flywheel that will push China out of it’s game for good, as it’s ageing demographics implode it’s economy.
Given the wild swings in the stock market, how can we be sure that administration and other people in the know didn’t engage in massive insider trading?
I said since Trump’s presidency began that this would be the playbook for the next 4 years, volatility. Be long and short as often as possible. Covered calls or collar strategies work good here but many other options too (pun intended). Hedge with TLT but above all always.be.profiting.
Or you could follow Warren Buffet.
you must be joking. if yes, then hat tip. imagine the amount of options the insiders traded. those poor tech founder billionaires. who is gonna be the first trillionaire. putin or a tech bro like peter thiel
And all of a sudden nobody is talking about the gold in Fort Knox
or epstein or jfk files……..with the new russia / persia pact today, i still think Hegseth will be bombs away against persia in May
Hegseth wouldn’t be the decider. Hopefully it’s not Satanyahu.
No matter who it is a small drone may be in their future. Administration officials should fear this possibility, the next war may involve USA command and control as small drones pack a big bang and built correctly would be near impossible to stop in a public setting in current USA. I wonder how they’ll like living underground?
You’re Adam Schiff! Lol.
I watched Trump last night in his Tux at NRCC. All the R congress was there. He was as strong and fearless and funny as ever. Emphasis on funny. He truly is the greatest actor of all time. And like most great actors, they are empty vessels and can make you believe they are genuine. most of the great Popes and emperors and demagogues ………in world history had those qualities. I cannot stop watching him. Sportsball and most movies pale in comparison for the nihilist entertainment value of it all. he is a pure empty vessel. there is no there, there. he’s 200 proof nihilist, just reflecting back the will of the people like all great politicians in world history do.
I find gaslighters really abhorrent. You have a special stomach to watch him, that’s for sure. I’ve never heard him say one thing funny. That man just ridicules and debases everyone. He mocked the disabled, he mocked POW’s. Abusing women any way he can verbally and sexually. This is not a funny man.
i find him disgusting. a perfect reflection of much of modern amerikans. i also find more disgusting the amerikan people electing never ending warmongers who threaten or outright bomb the living hell of people who dare trade with someone we don’t like. the examples are endless. nam to libya to iraq………modern amerikans vote for the vile leaders who reflect their wishes. so we bomb the world. the only known democracy that has voted for world wide domination for over a century now. that is not funny. i agree with you. gas lighters and gas torchers alike.
I get you. It’s bizarre. Our fellow Americans are not well.
He will be remembered as “President Clown” in history.
Despite the clown saying he could “act presidential”…
I much prefer King Chaos…
and I think he would too.
Don’t be ridiculous.
Do you not grasp or remember what the past 4 years of Biden were?
Literal treason.
Half Dem – Half Rep
I’m think he is playing Tic Tac Toe
One of the squares is missing.
He’s got Kevin O’Leary helping him play Tik Tok Toe
I’m so confused, yesterday Trump was asking us not to be “panicans” and telling us that his bigly tariffs would lead to the gold-iest golden age ever and today he’s reversing course. Does he not want us to have this amazing golden age now? What will tomorrow bring?
You’re going to have to wait a bit, it appears. Sorry.
golden shower
In his mind the extra tariffs for China make up for the lost tariffs everywhere else assuming the Chinese tariffs ever get collected. I believe Chinese ships can show up to US ports before May 27th and still pay the lower tariff.
The Golden Age was discovered to be The Tugnsten Age, with gold colored paint on it
I’m betting he got wind that this was about to turn into a liquidity/credit event and if not reversed we’re gonna have a 20% down day and full blown financial crisis that would take years to unwind.
It’s all fun and games til the credit markets seize up and collateral starts getting called and I’m pretty sure we were getting very very close to some headline like that triggering another banking crisis. All it takes is a headline that this or that large hedge fund was having issues, and halted redemptions … etc.
On cnbc today, they were talking about the bond market having some unusual issues. Usually when stocks are unstable there’s a rush to safety. Today they were talking about unusual activity in the bond market. It scared them. I think this what made Trump cave.
Collareral *should* be getting called. There is plenty of liquidity, over triple the amount of dollars since 2008 and over 2 trillion more since Covid.. If people want liquidity then they can sell assets or go bankrupt. Hedge fund gamblers or any business that deals with them should never be bailed out. People complaining about liquidity just want to keep assets at bubble prices.
It’s scary and sad the extent to which MAGA world begins to spin out ways Trump’s idiocy if not outright malfeasance as brilliance. it’s Stalinesque.
As for other countries negotiating, sure. if we aimed missiles at them with a countdown they’d negotiate too. Not sure why this is something to brag about. it’s like a nutjb dousing himself and you in gasoline, striking a match, and then crowing about victory when you ask him to stop, as if it’s normal to have done that to begin with. And in the end, we will not have benefitted.
Countries WILL be moving away from the US. likely theu’ll move closer to China, and strengthen ties among themselves.
We are toxic the world over and this will hurt the tourism industry and the trillions in business we do with the world.
When Biden did stupid things, most Dems had no issue calling him out on it and importantly normal everyday Americans that voted for him didn’t spin it all to make it seem like he was brilliant. most Dems hated his immigration policies and said so.
No Dem voter actually worshipped Biden the way MAGA worships Trump. Honestly he could kill their kids and they’d be like ” we can’t understand the mind of Trump we just trust it’s for our good”
He’s a Russian asset. Their tariffs are zero.
Indeed
And gawd forbid if due to this the dollar loses global reserve currency status. Then the U.S. will really get f@#kd.
Like I said on this platform…for his supporters …a win is a win and a loss is a win. How can you argue with people whose brains are so broken
WHHAAATTT? With a more than $1T trade deficit with just China, you’re making an argument around a $16B agricultural subsidy?
Are you kidding us, Mish? Brandon could fart $16B out of his ass & never realized what happened. He spent upwards of $250B in the last six months of last year in an attempt to swing the election for Comrade Kamala.
WHHAAATTT? With a more than $11T in stock market losses over a $1T trade deficit with China, you’re making an argument?
Are you kidding us, Jayw? I know you’re a trumper JayW and therefore can’t do math but Trump’s solution to the problem is worse than the fix.
And we all know you’re a never Trumper who’s only concern is making money. And whoosh the stock market came roaring back. What Trump is trying to do has nothing to do with the stock market. He’s attempting to make a long-term structural change to how the US carries out global trade & specifically weakening China & reducing our dependence on strategic goods. If that causes a stock market rout, then so be it. This won’t be the last time I intimate that I’m fine with that.
And BTW, I was looking for that rare reply from Mish, not you. Nice lame duck whining below.
I don’t thnik everyone who thinks Trump is a little crazy (or maybe a lot crazy) is a Never Trumper
They just wish that maybe the implications of a course of action are thought through, before you jump right in the deep end,.
With Trump, it’s shoot from the lip first, and then walk it back afterwards
And I ama guy who would have voted for Trump, I mean, Biden/Harris, seriously?
It seems Trump has surrounded with yes-men, who nod and applaud everything, and none of them are bothering to think of what might happen if action A causes Response B, or even what Response B might be or could be, they just assume Action A will work perfectly every time
OK, its a lot crazy
His yes men nod and applaud everything for frae of being taken out back and shot.
fear…typing with one hand while eating breakfast is not easy
For starters the entire trade deficit with the world is $1T
Second the $28 billion was last time not this time
Third you fail to count all the other damages from tariffs
Fourth you can’t think
Fifth, I have better things to do than babysit ever stupid comment
Funny and well said😂 As well as damn serious!
Ah, my mad. $1.2T with the whole world & $300B with China.
I don’t consider $28B in subsidies over 2 two years to be an enormous problem. I am hopeful this time around Trump / Congress shows more restraint.
Yes, there will be damages due to tariffs, but again you fail to acknowledge Trump’s longer-term goals. You’re on record stated we need to make more strategic goods and this is part of the plan to make that happen.
Yes, Mish, I can think fine. And I’d enjoy calling you names like you do everyone that disagrees with you, but I’ll rise above that since you have banishment powers.
I do enjoy reading your articles. They’re informative for sure.
Cheers!
^ MAGA
Making America Great Again by….umm, We’re Winning Bigly!, and the leaders of 50 countries just phoned me to tell me that, honest, they’re on hold right now
Please don’t start acting like President Musk. Fortunately, he’s gone for now.
Trump forgot the $270M+
Trump is quickly becoming a lame duck president. There are only 1381 days left in his presidency (assuming he’s not impeached or dies) and after that he will be a certified “has been” and the world will move on.
I suspect why Trump caved was because Congress was seriously considering stripping him of his tariff power. If that happens, what else does the clown have? War?
You are too kind regarding CONgress. I suspect a credit system impolosion was about to happen if he didn’t immediately reverse direction, but that’s just a guess.
Yes, a derivative problem maybe.
CONgress couldn’t day trade it fast enough.
Just like Uncle Buffy was still in his long johns the day when the March 2020 bailout commenced.
i think you are correct. people of the world will just circumvent trump domestically and internationally. nobody will take anything he says seriously anymore. if wealthy just sit on funds. if poor, just go to work.
yep…..but he’s as serious as cancer. We don’t have the treatment for this.
Fortunately, President Musk seems to be in short supply these days. I previously hide his post. Fortunately for you, you’ve been added to that list, so I’m looking forward to not reading & replying to your anti-Trump rants.
Bye-bye!
checkmate bruh! If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
I’m sure you’re sad that Jay has just flounced out on you. It’s a good day.
I have no idea what flounced means, but the Hide button is there for a reason, Bridge. Feel free to return the flouncing as should MPO…
You book-worm economists after all these years still make me laugh… No, really, you’re still as good for a laugh now as back when you were a loser in high school. Back in high school you couldn’t get girls and they laughed and made fun of you. You were the losers who got the undie grundy wedgie and the kick me sign taped to your back. You weren’t ever the first pick for team sports. Friday and Saturday nights you never had any real fun. And you could never win a fist fight.
And here you are now looking at a real winner, The Donald, and you see the alpha-male Trump who doesn’t play by your book-worm rules and you just can’t stand it. Trump says shove your book and he does what winners do. Trump is playing the game by his own rules this time around, and all you little economic gutless wonder boys have never yet figured out the real keys to success in life even back in high school – and especially nowadays at the top of the food chain.
Trump is getting the phone calls from world leaders and making the deals. Deals that you little keyboard tappers and book worms will never be in a position to make….ever.
Let me give you little book worms some really good advice. Life is too damn short to miss out on all the fun you missed back in high school. So learn how to go out and get laid before it’s too late, enjoy life and just let Trump make the deals. None of you book worms will ever say or write anything that’ll make the Dow jump 4000 points from the intraday low in just a few hours…. Only Trump can do that.
Let me know when he makes a deal.
you sound like some dumb jock who is a sad old man. but not sure. maybe you are in college. but i do love the psychobable. i grew up in nyc area in the 70s……trust me missie, you have no clue what fun and decadence was in HS and 20s….in the 80s. . not a clue. i love when people say it’s like crack to describe something good. i took it hit of crack. too much. i liked smoking opium a few times though……..learned how to gamble at the racetracks in teen years……..payed off well for wall street trading………….
Yep, them book learners are so dumb. Trump is so smart and all is great in the world. Keep drinking that Kult Koolaid.
hahahaha The DOW jumped because Trump reversed the policy that was causing the DOW to melt down – genius, I tell you, genius!
He looked pretty stoooopid claiming credit today for that great market rally, when he caused the crash, then had to flip-flop fast to save the market
Too much ego, a real leader would have said, oops, sorry, I made a mistake, we’ll have to focus and do bettter next time…not claim credit for only the good part while denying the bad part ever happened
Donald Trump Is Doubling Down on All of Joe Biden’s Failures
Wars abroad, the affordability crisis, inflation, censorship of political speech — Donald Trump successfully exploited discontent with Joe Biden’s administration on all these issues and more. Trump is now making all of them far worse.
In 2 months.
Record.
Definitely worse in Gaza and Yemen. No change yet regarding Ukraine. On censorship, you can talk about vaccines now, but not Israel. Sounding crazy about a possible attack on Iran. The country voted for MAGA and got MIGA. Oy vey.
@Mish
“I have been meaning to do a post on this, but am finding it very difficult to keep up with everything I want to write about.”
I wish you luck keeping up with everything.
Mish, Mish, Mish, Mish, Mish. You are just not appreciating the masterful negotiating strategies that Trump is employing because we have to have a global reset of the international trade regime in order to address our deficit spending, our national debt, and the financialization of our national assets. By bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. we will have more jobs, high incomes, low prices, a cheap dollar, low interest rates, and a balanced budget. All thanks to tariffs and the reciprocal responses of our trade partners.
Stop dreaming. Come back to reality.
It will never happen.
It is called “Reserve Currency Curse”
It’s called sarcasm/satire. I guess I should have put the /s on. I thought it was obvious.
“We had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
– Battle of Bến Tre
Yep, a chicken in every pot too, prosperity for all, world peace, and love and hapiness all around
^I think hes being sarcastic, I hope
Yes. Apparently flew over a few too many heads which means my satire won the interwebs for a minute.
Now we are negotiating trade flows but the other side of the coin is negotiating the capital flows. The two are entangled just as much as are two entangled particles in physics. When you know the state one you know the state of the other and the world’s capital flows are as distorted as are the trade flows. This is where the new “Bretton Woods” deal comes in. It is fun to watch so many people’s long-held economic beliefs, ideologies and certainties being upended and stood on their heads.
It’ll be more fun to watch social security go bankrupt and you lose your whole portfolio then be begging on the streets and ranting that Trump was the greatest president ever. Sadly, France has a great socialist safety net, I guess that’s why you’re there.
I am here because my wife is French and we agreed to spend our declining years in her home country. We both have lived in a few other countries and she wanted to come home. She loves the cafés, the food and the people and frankly it is like an adult Disneyland in many aspects and Paris is truly a fantastic place. Since I am fluent in the language and know the customs living here is no problem for me. However we are thinking of returning to the US because we both agree that Europe has declined economically and in quality of life quite rapidly these last ten years. She is very much worried about how freedom of speech is being choked off in France and in Europe.
Fortunately our kids and just about all their friends they grew up with emigrated to the US almost twenty years ago. The young can often see things clearer when it comes to opportunities than us older folks. They are doing much better than those who stayed. They do enjoy coming back for vacations and this summer we will be traveling together throughout Europe for a month or so.
The social safety net is pretty much a myth from what I understand. I never used it myself so I don’t know but maybe some of your friends have. There are homeless here, massive immigration and people stabbed left and right every day. If you knew where I live and who lives around me you would be surprised.
“Fortunately our kids and just about all their friends they grew up with emigrated to the US almost twenty years ago.”
No surprise there. Good choice by your kids. Hope to see you soon back in the USA.
I am happy that Trump & parts of the GOP are turning against the tide on globalism. Hopefully in the next 4-5 years, Europe will continue its march to the right and move past a real tipping point. We will need Italy, UK, France, Germany, Poland, & other NATO countries to be more aligned with us politically to hold off the BRICs alliance & the military cooperation between those nations that will follow.
There’s an enormous amount at stake over the next 10 years. The time has come to do something about deficits, trade, US manufacturing of strategic goods, supporting the middle class, 1A & 2A rights etc.
Decoupling strategic goods from China is paramount.
“Do what I say or else” isn’t a negotiation.
Have you ever been married?
😀 😀
Married 45 years and I never won an argument.
you all are bitchin at me about the tariffs
ok they are on hold for 90 days
LMAO
Not me. I want Trump to keep the tariffs as long as possible. Then we will see their effects and learn from it.
Trouble is, he keeps caving in when there’s a little backlash. So they barely have time to work.
Too many exemptions too.
The Trump administration on Thursday published a list of hundreds of products that would be exempted from the tariffs announced Wednesday, including energy products, a variety of minerals, and chemicals used in energy and manufacturing, vaccines and some metals.
The value of the exemptions is significant, covering $644 billion of imports worldwide in 2024, said Erica York, vice president of tax policy at the Tax Foundation. That includes $185 billion from Canada and Mexico, which are still subject to fentanyl-based tariffs on goods that don’t comply with the North American free-trade pact, and $459 billion from the rest of the world. The administration had previously indicated that oil and gas wouldn’t be tariffed, and that the reciprocal tariff action wouldn’t affect products already covered by so-called Section 232 national security tariffs, like steel, aluminum and automobiles.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/white-house-publishes-hundreds-of-tariff-exemptions-N7o4V7gxmuRUWOROnhqX
yeah, a minor backlash, like the looming implosion of the whole thing, due to a credit crisis. Trump had to destroy the global economy, including the USA, to MAGA, a small price to pay, after all, to win bigly
Yep. Let’s see if Trump’s tariffs will destroy the US and world economy. What a great experiment. Lessons to be learned. Fascinating!
The crisis was too much credit being created, from the massive IOUs we made with our 36 trillion debt, and running out of money to fund the debt ponzi was inevitable. Appropriately, some of the bad effects are being felt now by those who carelessly overspent and some if not all won’t be all on the backs of future generations.
I’m going with an upvote on this one. We agree that it’s a great experiment. And, I agree he’s caving too soon, but at the same time a 10% global tariff is nothing to sneeze at. Between producers, exporters, importers, currency changes & the consumer, a 10% long-term tariff will not be a major contributor to inflation.
As you know, China is the play here. This is the part that will be interesting to see play out.
Hahahaha!
Trump has painted himself into a corner. He was confident that he could bully everyone into trade concessions, particularly China.
China has simply responded in kind and Trump doesn’t know what to do now. He is now desperate for China to call him and negotiate. He can’t understand why China won’t call.
China is ignoring him.
I love it!
What a show!
Totally wrong take. He doesn’t want a deal with China. That’s the whole point of singling them out.
Lol! He’s practically begging China to call him. Saying what a great guy Xi is. What a tough negotiator Xi is.
He says maybe China doesn’t know how to start the process.
Still waiting for a phone call.
Hahahaha!
Like a teenage girl……waiting for him to call!
Or a teenage boy… the misogyny isn’t needed. Is it?
Yeah flavia pay attention to your stupid assumptions. You think it’s just teenage girls that whine and fret?
In one month time there will be negotiation and solve the problems.
That is the Win-Win.
Truely it will be.
Of course he does! He wants someone to save face for him. The Chinese understand saving face and embarrassment really well. They know how susceptible he is to praise or lack of it. They understand him, too well. He will be played. And the rest of us, too. They are assho***, but they know how to manipulate. He won’t win this. And neither will we.
I generally agree with what Trump is doing, but I don’t think his raising the tariffs past 34% was the right next step. 125% is simply not a realistic tariff that can be held in place for say 6 months. In fact, it’s so high that China knows Trump will most likely have to blink first.
He should have started out with a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods with a 5% monthly increase with a target of 25-30%. And as I’ve said, I think he should have started to move to nationalize Chinese companies & land. He should also really go after these shadow Chinese entities in the US that are being used to spy & work towards undermining the US.
In no way shape or form do I consider China a friendly nation towards the US. EVERYTHING they do is geared towards weakening the US.
You remind me of Rhett Butler.
Devilishly handsome?
Or frankly Donald, I don’t give a damn?
I have a lot of Rhett Butler quotes. You will see.
“Mammy, what’s that rustling noise?”
(Oops, think that was Scarlett, not Rhett)
It was all easily predictable and the profits have been utterly amazing.
Agree!
If Napoleon had an iphone when in Moscow…
Misch,
Why don’t you do a piece on the 8% crisis spending Biden did for 2 years.
Let’s forget the tariff game and circle back to matters that will be far more important over the next 10 years. Or maybe 100 years.
Trump just won his 5th SCOTUS case in the past 6 days.
Methinks you should stop checking in with your ‘Constitutional’ expert and maybe just check with me. Because so far I’m batting 1000% and you are in the very low 200s.
At best.
Some big cases to come indeed. And I doubt I’ll get them all correct. But so far, I’ve been correct every time.
Love you man. But your guy is not doing you any favors.
Personally, I need Solicitor General, John Sauer, to petition SCOTUS to grant cert to Snope v Brown & Ocean State Tactical. We really need to find out where Amy Coney Barrett stands in terms of her supposedly conservative constitutional views.
Everyone lies
Does anybody believes 90 days pause. Trump is a narcissist and needs to be in a center of drama. As I said before Trump is a big baby and he loves all his toys to play with.
I assume for next week he will play with Ukraine or something else, maybe some DEI nonsense.
But I don’t believe he will leave such a beauuuuuutiful toy (tariff) away for 90 days.
If you doubt it, try to take a favorite toy from your kid for 3 months, good luck with it.
All it does is throw more uncertainty in the market. Right now the vulture capitalist are swooping in for yet again another disaster they can score from.
Reader Q: I honestly don’t know what to believe anymore. I do know that China has been stealing intellectual property for years and I understand they do have barriers that make it prohibitive to sell into their market. So what is the correct way to calculate tariffs? Or is China treating us fair and it’s just our fault for being dumb Americans??
How do we bring back America’s manufacturing base so we’re not at such a strategic disadvantage if China drops us off?
Me: I love this question.
Will do a post on it.
Thanks
Thanks!
This is the meat of the matter. Look forward to seeing this.
Yes, we would all love to see your thoughts on these important issues.
Get it going ASAP & make it a good one!
There is no master plan. The impetus has always been the same. Good news bad news whatever, make sure Trump is on tv 24/7, every hour of every day, so we get used to it. After awhile, do we really care what he does?
Where are the zero rates you promised
You missed yesterday!
And yes I said Trump will do whatever it takes to get zero rates, including apparently crashing the economy
that is it. nothing more. trump originally ran for POTUS as an advertising campaign for his brand. he was so shocked the dopes took him seriously………
Trump is simply feeding his mental illness. In his compulsive mind he has got to be at the top of the news cycle all the time in order to feel omnipotent. Trying to understand him is senseless.
Bring back Hillary campaigning in 2016 with the Chairman Mao Moo Moo outfit.
Good god, can’t you people live in the present? I know you are but what am I is getting so tiring.
I certainly believe this could have been the plan all along. But that makes it all worse, not better.
This idiot just throws darts at numbers, countries, federal jobs and wherever the dart lands is what dictates the decisions. No research involved whatsoever. Small and medium sized businesses are spinning their wheels daily trying to figure out what things cost, what to charge and how to stay afloat. There will be no decrease in the deficit just bailouts for all the industries effected by the lunacy, ie agriculture, travel, automotive, housing etc..
And your worthless opinion
Sure thing KLAUS!
I honestly don’t know what to believe anymore. I do know that China has been stealing intellectual property for years and I understand they do have barriers that make it prohibitive to sell into their market. So what is the correct way to calculate tariffs? Or is China treating us fair and it’s just our fault for being dumb Americans??
How do we bring back America’s manufacturing base so we’re not at such a strategic disadvantage if China drops us off?
I love this question.
Will do a post on it.
Thanks
Answer, you do it gradually, not all at once. It takes 10-20 years to get all supply chanis set up and tuned up, it won’t happen in a week or a month or a year. See the link I posted above from the manufacturing guy.
You say ” A 2% tariff begins in 3 months, rises to 5% in 6 months, 10% in a year, 20% by the second year, 30% by the third year, etc etc” – gives countries, businesses, markets time to enact the chages, smoothly ,without blowing everything up, nobody gets mad, nobody loses thier all, everybody knows what’s going on and can plan accordingly
Or you do a Trump, and you get what just happened the last few months, till today – total clown car show, everybody does not know what to do, nobody can make a plan, business go out of business because costs just went through the roof, store shelves get empty, everybody panics……
I do have to ask how it is that DC has been saber rattling against China for a while now while the RE problem remains problematic. It seems odd that China has 2x more RE reserves than the next comp Brazil, or that other huge geographic expanses like Russia which borders China for thousands of miles has only 1/10th the reserves.
Xi is playing Putin. The Russians are wasting hundreds of thousands of men and associated materiel in Ukraine which leaves nothing for the Russian to use to assert submission from the ‘stans or to even hold on to their far eastern holdings. No doubt, China has the appropriate propaganda on hand to justify taking Mongolia and eastern Russian territories as “reasserting traditional and historical Chinese control and influence.”
Please don’t write like this again.
Everybody can see stupid.
rare earths are eveywhere, its not the raw material, its the refining – nobody wants to do it but China, becase the result is massive toxic waste and workers who die of cancer rapidly, in China they don’t care about that
Ho do YOU feel about having that refinery near your house? Nobody wants it near them, thats why.
Chairman Xi is running scared. His number one general enforcer in the Chinese Army disappeared without a trace. Xi is surrounded by yes men and takes no counsel. Xi is weak and afraid to appear weak so he made a bonehead blunder that will cost him the Chinese economy and likely his own life.
Where do you get this stuff?
I follow the news. When Xi lost his general he had to wet his pants. The knives are out for Xi. Peter Zeihan on youtube is a good source for the status of China’s demographic and economic collapse. Trump merely pushed China to the edge. Xi got to the edge and jumped.
Zeihan has some good commentary but he is a neocon also. Wants endless war in Ukraine among others.
hahahaa Zeihan, that guy is an idiot, you’ll get better advice from CNN
China, like everywhere else has problems. These guys throw around words like collapse like its water, everything is going to collapse, tomorrow, but womehow the world staggers on
Zeihan has been 1000% wrong on Russia, for years , for example, I would not believe him if he said the sky was blue, really, his track record is not knowing jack, and talking a lot about it
You need to see a psychiatrist now.
Trump was forced to back down because China made him their bitch. Trump was exposed as the loud mouthed weaker hand. Big hat, no cattle.
You think 125 percent tariffs on China is a good result for them? Lol
It’s bad for both countries. The US cannot economically decouple from China overnight without experiencing significant economic pain.
But keep on celebrating that Trump ‘win’.
400% incoming….booyah!
Face it — turns out Trump is a PANICAN weakling, using the moniker he coined a few days ago.
So China forced Trump to delay tariffs on everyone except China? Then they forced him to raise tariffs on China again?
So am I missing something or is China countering Trump’s 5D chess with 6D chess?
Yes. That’s exactly what I’m saying.
The Chinese are super smart. They outwitted Orange Man! Wait a second …
Nope.
Headline: “Trump says he “can’t imagine” raising tariffs further on China”
Booyah! And guess what? The US will crumble now on the world stage due to Trump showing he’s a weak leader.
How stupid Mish to bring up farm goods. China lied and didn’t live up to 2018 deal at all. So what difference in what they buy from us now when they obviously do what they want to do anyway. You act as if they are the honest party at the table.
Winning! And totally owning you and your portfolio 😉
It is hard to read some of your articles lately, because there is so much anti-Trump sentiment. You make some logical points, but maybe not seeing the forest for the trees. I will judge the trade negotiations more based on results — we are not there yet. Trump is a negotiator, with a successful record, and he has a dream team of sharp advisors, too. I give the administration some credibility on that. It was never going to be easy, but they seem to be pushing things in the right direction. China has now been isolated for the key negotiations, other nations have been pulled more toward the US, planning to work out some arrangements, and likely agreeing to lower barriers and more US imports. The table will end up tilted more toward US industrial production vs. same old trade deficits, although much will take time.
We are still in the forest. But it is pointless to focus on every swaying branch, to find our way.
I point out contradictions, idiotic definitions etc in response to idiotic statements and definitions and policy changes several times a week by Trump.
I’s called reporting
Reporting on negotiations that aren’t done and claiming you know the results? Yeah. No
Fair enough, but maybe challenge your reporting to consider more of the potential benefits, even from some of the wild bits, and what might be around the next corner. As Bill Ackman noted: “Sometimes, the best strategy in a negotiation, is convincing the other side that you are crazy.” And quite often Trump has been found to be crazy like a fox.
The problem is the crazy routine actually. Yes trump does crazy. This might be contrived as shrewd if you he were one poker player in the casino. But if you are the ENTIRE casino and are acting crazy everyone will exit the crazy casino and quit playing. This is how you know his crazy routine will not result (in the by the way totally transparent) results he seeks. Chaos leads to people sitting on their hands, waiting out the storm to use another analogy. This is why you can be assured he will not deliver ‘BIG WINS’ as you might imagine. AAPL going up 15% today makes no sense, their entire business is china. Trump mirage, scam business. Extortion, mafia. Cult leader…‘I tested you through tribulation’. All lies…
Except that the more applicable metaphor is when OTHER casinos, have been stealing from OUR casino, and our boss isn’t going to stand for it anymore, because everyone in OUR casino is being robbed, too. Except these aren’t casinos at all. Sovereign countries have different rules, mostly no rules, just influence. Until you and Mish figure out how better to make change, and get elected to do it, I will give Trump and his team some support.
It all makes sense now that you identify as a reporter😩
They call themselves “journos” now. More hipster.
Influencer might be more fitting.
Did Jimmy Carter have someone work an autopen on the Panama Canal deal or was he really that stupid?