Trump has had enough of the stock market decline. 
Trump Announces 90-Day Pause on Some Tariffs, But China Tariffs Rise to 125%
“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”
Trump added that he has authorized a “90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.” It wasn’t immediately clear whether Trump’s 10% baseline tariff was on a pause, or if his higher reciprocal rates were on a pause.
Trump: “Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets ...”
Trump Translated: “Based on the lack of respect that the stock market has shown for my policies, I will rethink them for 90 days.“
What Changed?
The 125 percent tariffs on China are now somewhat of a mirage.
Via Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mexico, China will re-route goods through those countries.
Also prices will not rise as much as before. But farmers will still need a bailout.
And we now have 90 days of more uncertainties.
Nothing fundamentally has changed. But Trump now has a clue of what the market thinks of his policies.
By the way, the sharpest rallies occur in bear markets.
Related Posts
April 9, 2025: China Retaliates with 84% Tariffs on the US, Most Trade Will Stop
Supply chains everywhere are disrupted. US farmers will be bailed out, again.
That’s what I said moments ago. My trade will stop comment was in reference to China.
If the 46 percent tariffs on Vietnam are lowered there will be a huge incentive for China to re-route goods there.
I have discussed this before.
Please consider my February 7, 2025 post Trump Announces Reciprocal Tariffs Next Week, a Major Trade War Escalation
Evidence is strong that China has circumvented tariffs by masking exports via Vietnam and Mexico.
The reduction in the trade deficit with China was little more that tariff avoidance via Vietnam and Mexcico.
Also see my January 18, 2025 post The US Trade Deficit with China is Understated by as Much as 30 Percent
Normal trade math does not add up. US imports and China exports are not in sync.
I asked Brad Setser, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Director of International Economics, for the United States Department of the Treasury to comment.
Setser replied “Chinese exports started exceeding US imports only in those categories with tariffs, and only after the tariffs were imposed.”
I commented “This appears to be an amusing case of China cleverly avoiding US tariffs but not clever enough to hide it better.”
If Trump lowers tariffs on China and Mexico, expect more tariff avoidance.
The “Made in Vietnam” trade is back on.
Trump’s deep desire is to destabilize, grab, and finally jerk the attention of everyone on the planet on a little string, moment to moment. And because our societies are weak and stupid and decadent, such a character has now succeeded.
I wish we could get more articles about Donald Trump. Am i the only one?
I agree but remember that Trump totally controls the stock market. You can’t blog about the market without blogging about Trump.
It’s just amazing how one man can take up so much Free Rent in many peoples head, maybe they should take up gardening.
The SPX is undergoing a self-assembly process for its last 13 day 4th fractal in the 3 Feb 2025 terminal growth and incipient fractal crash decay series of 8/19/20/13 days :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.6x. On a 15-minute fractal time basis, the 7 April 2025 3rd fractal 20 day low begins its 13 day 4th fractal with a 3/6/7 15-minute unit :: x/2x/2-2.5x fractal growth series, followed by a 11/28/28 15-minute unit :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximal fractal growth series ending at the close on 9 April 2025 and fractally similar to the 27 Oct 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x lower high maximum fractal growth series and the 1807 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x (composite Wilshire) high on 8 November 2021. The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System is deterministic in its time-based fractal self-assembly of its composite asset valuation growth and its composite asset valuation decay and is undergoing a 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x 32 of 33 year second fractal nonlinear collapse similar to the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 87 of 90 year second fractal collapse peaking on 3 Sept 1929 and nadiring on 8 July 1932.
Wow – so what is going to happen in the next week? I guess we’ll have to wait a week to know which fractal pattern it matched.
Whatever happens it will fit in somehow
I got my head shaved ten days ago and every ten days successively before then. It is a gift to myself.
I am in a trade deficit with my Barber! I AM TIRED OF HIM RIPPING ME OFF.
From 9 days from now, or on the 19th, I will be adding a tariff to my trade with him of 125%. THAT will DO THE TRICK!
RIGHT?
Does he use a straight razor by chance?
Why does this feel like George Costanza negotiating for lower than what the initial offer was.
Perfecto!
The entire goal is for Zero Tariffs. I would expect that leads to lowering the initial offer and every subsequent offer, if or until we get there. Seems to be going well so far, as many seem to want the very same thing now. Going as planned I would suggest.
Search “market manipulation” in Google News. Lutnick must be delighted that he has Tether to conceal his profits in El Salvador. Maybe they’ll blame Navarro and put him back in jail.
With 125% tariffs on China & you call this capitulating just because he’s putting even more pressure on China to come to the table?
I’m not so sure about your trade negotiation skills. Oh yeah, that’s right. You’d eliminate any & all tariffs we have with any country, thinking Zero Tariff Policy is a great deal for America.
No thanks!
The US has no leverage over China except in their minds.
Exports to the US amount to 3% of Chinese GDP, maybe 4.5% if you follow Mish’s theory.
Since they see this as an existantial threat from the US, they will absorb the hit.
In the US, Chinese imports are crucial, go to any store and see how much product is not made in China – not much. Those products may be replaced one day, maybe, but the price will be much higher.
China made several big moves this week to fork the US in financial, LNG, microchips that Mish didnt mention. Trade wars lead to real wars.
Good luck with those tariffs. Peter Navarro is a moron, exactly as Elon said.
Wait, which is it? 3% or 4.5%. Sounds like you’re making sh!t up. 19% of China’s GDP is exports. Here, Fubar, I’ll one up you. The US exports $143B to China or 0.49% of our GDP. Wait! On what planet is running such a enormous trade deficit with a single country good LONG-TERM for America. It’s not. And that’s the point. Trump is trying to do something about it.
I agree. We get a ton of stuff from China. And the whole point of these tariffs, specifically with China, is to get US manufacturers to onshore or friendly shore strategic goods.
Right. The guy with a PhD in economics is a moron vs the guy who’s car company is tanking because he was too moronish to realize his cozying up to Trump was bad for business.
ROTFLMAO! Right! NO LEVERAGE WHAT SO EVER. IT’S JUST ALL MADE UP IN ORANGE GUY’S HEAD.
Your comment needs no reply, its so stupid.
Mish lays out how the China exports to US are undercounted above, I g u ess you missed that. So if officially in China its 3%, maybe its a ctually 4.5%, as per Mish logic.
What part didnt you understand?
The trade deficit is because US companies went to China and ordered products, this is Americas problem, not China. They did that because US laws allowed it, and profits went up as they eliminated US production.
So if you want to place blame, look in the mirror, at your own US companies, and US consumers who happily bought the cheaper Chinese goods.
Navarro is a total tard, he is obsessed with China, like other tards are obsessed with Ukraine. Easier to blame China than admit its Americas I wn fault.
You are not doing well on up votes but you sure are winning the down vote race – I’ve never seen so many. Hey, a PhD means you are educated but not smart. Idiot Musk on the other hand has generated hundreds of thousands of jobs and built multi-billion dollar companies. Your PhD has done what again?
Of course the SEC will be ruthless in hunting out any insider trading related to the announcements on liberation day and today. I know one family who is going to be incredibly better off.
I think this takes a lot of bargaining power away from Trump. The reason he did this is that the pressure from GOP was getting too much. He could give a rats ass about other countries having to wait 90 days while tariffs are on. It would give him a lot of bargaining power to keep them on until a deal is made and he would if he could.
The problem now is that he has shown his true colours. Other countries are going to enter into unconventional trading relations to avoid dealing with the US as Trump has shown himself to be unethical and unreliable. It is simply a matter of national security for other countries to try and avoid doing business with the US as much possible and to keep moving in that direction. This is in terms of both exports and imports.
If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and the US (via Trump) has just made a ton of enemies worldwide then China may have just made a lot of new friends.
I guess the stock market is OK with 125% tariffs on China. Not that anyone should be using the stock market as a measure of success after only a week.
Falken says WOPR is learning.
Today was 9th largest percentage gain in history for S&P500.
Among the prior Top 20 up days in history, all were during prior crashes &/or bear markets: 15 instances from 1929-1933, plus a couple in fall 2008 and March 2020.
Hopefully the crash will soon resume.
Meet your new portfolio manager. Very handsome. The best, really terrific, just fantastic. You might have heard of him. Goes by Trump and he is 100% in charge of your portfolio.
My portfolio manage, Orange Julius
Call him what you will but just remember every penny you made today and every dollar you lost this past week was courtesy of Trump.
The old SAT question:
One guy always lies
One guy never lies
One guy sometimes lies
So one of them says – . What do you do?
Keep on trading!
You guys say that as if diddling the stock market for his own personal enrichment is how we MAGA
My guess, is that Trump realizes that with so many Countries wanting to negotiate, He can’t allow them to take effect until that’s all worked out. That will take a bit, and then I the outcome will take effect, or not in many cases, hopefully.
Sure, like anyone begged him. You fell for that? If 75 countries are begging, let’s see the list, or at least the name of one of them. Sure, coming right up
They ALL were there. They ALL called him SIR. They ALL licked his boots….. But, they can’t tell us who they were, haha!
Minus the sarcasm, you and the World will soon know which Countries, and what they agreed upon. Give it some time…
Countries (25, 50, 75?) and a lot of them, wish to “Negotiate” This is a great thing! This means they wish to discuss the issues and hopefully come to a “Compromise” that Meets Each of there Goals. I think everyone wants that!
So if a pause allows that action to successfully take place, why wouldn’t Trump do so, and these Countries that asked Him too, are happy to engage in negotiations to allow them both to settle on an agreement, that meets the needs of them both!
It’s there after all, but you need some time to find it.
I applaud Trump, and the Countries that have asked to “Negotiate” this is HOW it’s supposed to work!
You may be right about the rerouting of goods, but we’re wise to that, and stopping that will be a big negotiating point with Mexico, Vietnam, and Canada. Like, if we catch you doing this, and we will, your tariff rate will go way up. I don’t like China’s chances on this. They have a problem. They’re in a recession, and now their addiction to exporting (and aversion to importing) could make that recession bite harder.
Xi can add tags “Made In Greenland” to every item.
All business forward planning and construction in America comes to a halt.
What would you buy or build?
90 days, ha!
Killed investment for a year or two.
Retrenchment and recession locked in now.
Mitt can reincarnate his dad’s AMC Rambler station wagon with a dog carrier on the roof. It already had the rails. The ’65 Marlin looked better than any Tesla.
Although I didn’t watch it, this show must be more exciting than the Apprentice. This is Apprentice Live.
Yup Trump is definitely learning…. At least a few years away from a journeyman I would say.
I hope all of you that are calling Trump all sorts of nasty names realize that he is totally in control of your stock portfolio. Any word out of his mouth can send stocks soaring or tumbling. He knows it and he is just getting started. Buckle up!
Oh for the sweet days of Mr. Bubble – Greenspam!
Greenspan
Bernanke
Yellen
….hmmmm
You can add Volcker, Burns, etc. to the list. None of them understand money and central banking.
Oh we know it, why do you think we are “calling Trump all sorts of nasty names?” Some people like self-determination instead of allowing Trump to dictate our lives
Nonsense. The only one in charge of my investment portfolio is me. When I don’t like the management, I don’t own stocks. When I don’t like the consequences of my own choices, I suck it up.
Trump is the management. Own or don’t own?
The management has been telling everyone for a while that this is going to be a poor time to own stocks, for a while. They just didn’t say it straight out.
Today doesn’t change that, at least not yet.
Ya but Trump is making kings out paupers and paupers out kings and who knows what is next. I would rather rely on the roulette wheel than the stock market to make my fortune these days.
There’s always Mr. Wonderful shark tank guy.
Yes, damn those Chinese for buying up all of our debt and supplying us with cheap goods and critical resources for the past 30 years.
All those downvoters were their huckleberry the whole time. Dollars to donuts
Lol! Trump didn’t capitulate anything. We increased tariffs on China to 125% while every other country have rushed to the negotiation table. But even China, like every other country, has no choice but to comply in the end.
He f’ing caved. Because he had to, because the bond market was screwed and Bessent told him he better act quick or disaster was lurking. Now, with that great negotiating ploy, all those country “supposedly” rushing to the negotiation table were just dealt aces, and the deals won’t be anything like the orange menace fantasized about. F’ing Deal Maker my ass.
Stock market manipulation. It’s the way the club gets stinking rich. Too bad we’re not part of the club.
Scripture says no one gains anything from unethical dealing. That’s not a club to want to be in. Being humble and caring finds favor from the Creator and enriches the soul, the only thing you take with you.
Is credit about to fall over?
That big dummy, his family and his cronies got super rich on the way down and now on the way back up. Remember them denying the 90 day pause rumor. Guessing they needed more time to get their positions in place🤔
Who’s the sucker now SUCKERS?
We now have a precedent where the president pardons his family on the way out the door.
Laws are for the “little people” or for people who condemn genocide.
With e-file no trees are destroyed with Schedule D, Form 8949 continuation sheets.
Better to be betting on the horse races in person at the track.
lol
Did you mean capitulate or catapults?
Trump Blinked First!
The entire world got together and bitch slapped trump into the corner, sluck a dunce cap on his head and let him know in no uncertain terms that he was about to become the laughing stock of the free world.
He did not even have the courage to announce what was going on to the world and had his press and Treasury secretary face the nation.
The overnight Treasury auction result made things perfectly clear for him.
However trust is lost and will be hard to re-gain.
LOL. ;-))))))
YOLO
YMMV
This is not capitulation. This is Trump trolling China while tightening the screws. Well played President Trump 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Haha, that certainly is one way of looking at it. I agree with Mish though, Trump gave in already. I have no doubt he’ll have another fit soon where he will scream a Chat-GPT based number for new tariffs. And he will give in again one week later. Probably a lot richer of the insider trading.
Lets see. Everyone else 10% for now. China still at 104%. Who’s left without a chair now?
Who pays for those tariffs?
Trump?
Tune in next week…Trump is minting a $36Trillion dollar coin to pay off the national debt!! Tariffs will be back on at 100% for everyone.
A gimmick like that wouldn’t pay off any debt. The American people will pay for the debt in many ways. Inflation, stock losses, job losses, real estate losses, cuts in benefits are some of the ways. But we can make it less painful if we face the problem, resolve to undergo austerity, stop blaming and excuses, stop deficit spending, stop money printing dollar devaluation, stop manipulating interest rates, and start really paying off debt.
Trump isn’t just trolling China, he’s using their “we must never lose face” dogma against them. They will never capitulate to direct demands, it’s not how Chinese culture works.
At some point there will be a deal made by some invisible negotiations that allows everyone to claim victory.
Trump diverted resources to take out China permanently. I would not call that a capitulation. A good general uses economy of forces to defend while marshaling overwhelming force on the primary objective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yKupF2j4RY
A docking fee on Chinese ships is coming. Europe may erect tariffs on China to prevent a flood of cheap imports diverting from USA. We’ll soon learn how long Chinese employees can go without a paycheck. How long can a Chinese business go without revenue? How long can a Chinese bank endure massive loan defaults? Chairman For Life Xi could have a short reign. It’s pitchfork and torch time.
On the American side I’ll make a visit to Walmart and Target. How long are the lines at the register? How high are the prices? What essentials are the few customers buying? Do the shelves empty or restock? American businesses must invest in alternate sources for critical minerals and metals. Caterpillar and Terex are hiring.
If we have to give him credit, I guess it would be for doing crazy shit and then pulling back a bit but still leaving in place thins that done alone would have been outrageous too.
the 10% tariffs are still on, but because of his crazy higher tariffs on individual nations, this seems reasonable. Had he just done 10% initially, market would have sold off too..
in any event the damage is done. the world hates us, the US brand is toxic, people are cancelling their US vacations in droves. and inflation is still going up in the 10% tariffs.
and people will do as much as they can to move away from the US and it’s chaotic recklessness.
I don’t give anyone credit for stupid $hit.
The world was our bestie before?
Well, enough of it to make us one of the wealthiest countries in the world . people spend lots of money to come here, and purchased trillions in goods from us. Our popular culture was adopted by the world which leads to huge portions of GDP.
Look at the international sales of SP500 companies. Look at the restaurants in tourist areas in the US. the entire hospitality industry and so on. We’ve had this for so long we take it for granted snd don’t realize how much we’d lose of we lose it. There are alternatives for everything US companies do, and if that shifts we will be hurting. badly.
Trump Truth from 5 hours before the jump…reminds me of Obama’s “looks like a good time to buy” in March 2009
##############
April 9, 2025 9:37am
@realDonaldTrump
THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT
4.56k
ReTruths
22.1k
Likes
Everyone who needed to sell had already sold by yesterday. There was nowhere to go but up. The algo’s were programmed to buy based on two words, “Tariffs and Pause”. Option dealers were in deep negative gamma, which means they have to buy or sell in the direction of the market. That’s been the source of volatility since around Feb 24th..
good comment
I remember the old Chicago Fire soccer team. The announcer would say, “Logan…..Pause”.
Mish … just how do you know that Trump capitulated … how do you know this isn’t part of a strategy to get countries to negotiate … this is a business strategy, not a political strategy … let’s wait and see what happens …
The long term is the judge. No one knows the future.
Trump wrote a whole book explaining just what he did. Why is anyone surprised?
Absolutely agree with you Time. He is sending a very strong message to China while showing his hand as to the real tariff target.
More likely, he just didn’t think through all of the possibilities. People who know him say he’s dumb as a rock.
That rock got a whole lot richer while everyone else got whiplash.
That’s illegal but probably true.
Post coming up on this theory.
With 5 minutes to go in regular trading day WFMT Chicago is playing In The Hall Of The Mountain King, so the signal to insiders just went out!
He doesn’t of course. But it doesn’t take a clairvoyant to see the results
Maybe but if so t it’s a stupid strategy that creates a recklessness discount that will persist. Would any CEO commit risky CAPEX based in this environment?
if he wanted to negotiate he should have had the 90-day stay in place when he introduced the amounts. Not wait until the market tanked. There are consequences. you can’t act like a crazy person time and again and expect not to pay a price.
Plus there are no doubt millions of Americans who sold too much because they couldn’t risk losing another 50%. Americans close to retirement, or in retirement. If you are reliant on your investments for income, you can’t afford a 2008 style collapse.
It’s interesting. This SPX hourly bounce (less than 3% higher than yesterday’s high) reinforces ‘#47’s tariff factor’ as the critical element in the global market’s decline – vice the SPX 27 Oct 2023 55/139/138 day (ending lower high) day x/2.5x/2.5x consumption exhaustion limit of the wage-limited, saturated debt-burden American consumer and the collapsing Chinese property bubble, its working population declining numbers, and its contracting GDP. This is day 3 of a 13 day 4th fractal of a SPX/QQQ 3 February 2025 8/19/10/3 of 13 day :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.6x terminal growth and incipient decay and crash fractal series.
So the tariffs were a trial balloon to see who retaliated, knowing China would. Then you take them back against everyone else and can be seen as not picking on China even though that was the goal from the beginning. 4D Chess
great theory except Europe just announced a date for reciprocal tariffs. This is Trump bending the knee.
That’s nice. Let’s see if they go through with it on that date. If not…
perhaps you missed the point. If it was a trial balloon to see who retaliated than Europe announced impending retaliation just as China did. European tariffs were removed. China’s weren’t.
meaning you don’t have an actual point.
He bent the knee
Europe will be very happy to pick up some market share from China.
oh please. stop sanewashing this idiot. the only foresight here was probably to short the market and go long fo rhim and his family.
Is that you Scaramucci?
😭😭😭 Perfect response!
“President Donald Trump’s top trade official said he wasn’t informed of the 90-day pause on most new tariffs until after it was announced.” — CNN
Nobody else is playing: Trump is playing with himself.
Shouldn’t you be at the front of the Trump ass kissing line?
Where are all the commenters who were telling us yesterday how brilliant Trump was and how necessary his tariffs were? He’s clearly lost his marbles.
Wrong. He is forcing China to build their marble factory in America🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
= TRUMP
WHAT A MORON!
usa/ nato/ europe could not bring down Russian economy , kind of one sided, of course helped by China / (I am russian, so no bias here )
so this clown thought he could take on whole world , and USA STOCK MARKET would be higher ???
========
USA is weak economically , it has myriad social/racial/ party line division problems, huge deficits trade/ budget, and giant gov debt.
and Trump think he can take on BIGGEST INDUSTRIAL BASE NAMED CHINA?
+= BRASIL , IRAN, AND Russia are biggest food / energy producers in the world (outside USA) , and it seems those facts just escaped this orange colored empty head
jesus!!!!!
alx
The U.S. is the biggest consumer base. The U.S. is supposed to surrender to China? If not the U.S. takes on China, who then? Who has the empty head?
I think this was all a play to move attention away from the fact that Trump promised to end the Russia/Ukraine war with one phone call after the election. Hello….
They both gave him a GPS with Hell as the destination.
Such a great deal maker.
Now seeing China not included in this pause. Well that’s better at least.
He managed to hold out for a single week. What a tough guy.
We need to stop bailing out farmers.
No one could make sense of the tariffs.
Unless one explained them as market manipulation.
Then tariffs make PERFECT sense.
And Trump has fired everyone who could look into the market manipulation. I will say this…the guy is a truly talented criminal. I’ll give him that.
Was Pelosi able to front-run it?
Hoping she got caught with her pants down. Eww gross NVMD
and meanwhile behind the curtain: In 2023 the FBI quietly arrested a notorious money launderer called ElonmuskWHM. Then the FBI secretly ran his operation for nearly a year to catch (and give money to) more criminals.https://www.404media.co/elon-musk-was-a-prolific-money-launderer-for-hackers-and-drug-traffickers-it-was-secretly-the-fbi/
so Trump is the stock market or the stock market is Trump? I hope my fellow MENSA members on here explain ty
Trump is likely letting his cronies trade in advance of his continued capitulations and cannot be trusted as his word is worthless. He has no convictions except the legal form.
Never before in history has one individual created more havoc and disruption in so short a period of time for so many.
Totally pathetic.
Yep
Is Trump bipolar or is he playing the market? What a fucking shit show!!!!
A terrible mistake. Still no bid in bonds either. I’d sell this rally
Not all shorts have covered.
Probably true. We were in AI bubble before trade stuff. Nothing has changed.
Quick switch the algos back to inflation data for numbers tomorrow and Friday!
We won the Tariff War! Yay!
Hope everyone that sold into the panic enjoyed getting their face ripped off.
LOLZ
Don’t be a PANICAN.
But seriously, many coming in to kiss the ring…why this would come as a surprise to anyone is beyond me. Read art of the deal.
Read “Donnie the Asshole.”
It’s a best seller.
Hahahaha! What a show!
And look at the 5D idiotic comments. Post up very soon.
Yep. There are idiots everywhere. It’s hilarious!
Love it!
PT Barnum grossly underestimated.