Wildly Wrong Economic Forecast
The BLS jobs report is this Friday. ADP estimates the economy added 167,000 in July.
The Econoday consensus estimate of the ADP forecast was 1,888,000 a miss of over 1.7 Million.
ADP was way off in May, calling for a big payroll loss not the big payroll jump that surprised everybody. And though June’s call for a big gain was short of the mark, it was at least in the right direction. For July, forecasters see ADP’s estimate at 1.888 million.
Paychex / Markit Small Business Index
IHS Markit reports Small Business Employment Rebound Moderates in July
The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows that employment growth moderated as new COVID-19 hot spots emerged in the South and West regions of the U.S. The national jobs index slipped 0.24 percent in July to 94.59. Hourly earnings growth also slowed slightly to 3.29 percent last month, but increasing hours worked, spurred by the shifting workforce composition, drove weekly earnings growth up to 4.14 percent, with one-month and three-month annualized growth rates topping five percent.
“The jobs index fell slightly in July as a number of states were forced to backtrack on early reopenings,” said James Diffley, chief regional economist at IHS Markit.
“The rebound in small business job growth has slowed mostly in regions where there has been a recent surge in cases,” said Martin Mucci, Paychex president and CEO. “We’re closely monitoring the status of the next expected stimulus bill for additional relief measures that may be necessary for many small businesses in the months ahead.”
ISM Services
We find out the BLS number on Friday. The Econoday consensus is 2,000,000.
I will take the “Under”.
Mish
The President said “huge job number” this coming Friday.
You going to believe these people over the Prez?
I was wondering about that, he shouldn’t know the number should he? and if he did know it wouldn’t he rather the markets were surprised with a good number?
Of course he knew the number already. I am guessing 3 million.
It’s possible they will fudge the hell out of it.
The radical shaped recovery does not work for me, since in a radical the left hand side of the “V” is above right the hand side. I would call it a “mirror radical”
Inverse
I’ll go with whatever number Portnoy pulls out of his scrabble bag …
July saw number still impacted by stimulus / moratorium / forbearance.
Going forward as all that waning ?????