ADP reported a gain of 104,000 private payrolls. Small businesses weak again.
The ADP® National Employment Report for July shows a gain of 104,000 private jobs.
The distribution shows weakness.
ADP change in employment month-over-month by Employer Size
Small businesses, the most important employment driver only gained 11,000 jobs.
Employers with 20-49 employees shed jobs again, down 10,000.
ADP Total Employment by Employer Size
Small businesses are much more important than medium or large businesses.
ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year
Year-over-year small business employment is up a mere 109,000. Medium business employment is up 331,000.
Large businesses, the least important drive of growth is providing the most jobs, up 806,000 from a year ago.
At the press conference yesterday, Powell kept referring to BLS jobs stats as if the labor marker was OK.
It was my one big disagreement with his press conference comments.
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I’m more worried about the hiring at 250-499 companies. Those are companies that can challenge monopolies on pricing. Without strong growth in the 250-499 range, you guarantee continued inflation.
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Banks don’t lend money. Deposits are the result of lending. All bank-held savings are lost to both consumption and investment. That’s what “The Riddle of Money Finally Solved” is all about.
Bank held saving are lost to both consumption and investment. Gov IOU the Fed:
poof. Fed IOU to the banks: poof and banks IOU to me and u: poof. Poof^3. No printing.
Lending/investing by the banks is inflationary (increases the volume and turnover of new money). Lending/investing by the nonbanks is noninflationary (results in the turnover of existing money), other things equal. If savings are not expeditiously activated, put back to work, a dampening economic impact is generated.
Powell thinks the banks are intermediaries, eliminating both deposit classifications and reserve requirements.
Once currency gets into the system, it doesn’t come out. It just changes hands.
For a good short summary of the effects of tariffs, look at the first two paragraphs in the linked article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act
Tariffs did not fix anything then and they will not now.
From your link: “However, 63% of all imports in 1933 were not taxed, which the dutiable tariff rate does not reflect. The free and dutiable rate in 1929 was 13.5% and peaked under Smoot–Hawley in 1933 at 19.8%, one-third below the average 29.7% “free and dutiable rate” in the United States from 1821 to 1900.”
So how did the US do so well from 1821 to 1900 even without an income tax?
Did moving U.S. factories to China fix anything? Any so called fix is only temporary. Pendulums swing back and forth. Back in Biblical days, the Year of Jubilee came every 50 years. The modern Kondratieff Wave is also 50 years. Nothing has really changed. The cycle keeps repeating itself, even though the cast of characters changes, generation by generation. Hence all the talk of the Fourth Turning and Fourth Turning wars. The Fourth Turning being the equivalent of Kondratieff Winter, the fourth season of the Kondratieff Wave.
The 1966 Interest Rate Adjustment Act is the paradigm.
Here is an explanation of the 1966 rate changes, see next to last paragraph:
https://www.econlib.org/when-confused-re-evaluate-your-model/
Key phrase from article:
Interest rates are not monetary policy.
Nope. When the bank changed my poor people bank account from dropped 7& interest to 0& with no warning.
I think a money market account pays like 5 usd on a 10k usd.
Only rich folk make a profit.
Bezos is that you with the red finger?
Most likely TACO that hot sauce hurts going in and coming out, red fingers both ways.
Weak jobs could be a support for a decision to fix interest rates lower in compliance with the Fed’s full employment objective. However, Wolf Rickter has a good article on why rates are currently accommodative suggesting fixing rates lower might not be effective combatting that ailment.
Fed’s Rates Not Restrictive for Markets. Financial Conditions Ultra-Loose. Manias Form, Margin Debt Blows Out, Junk Bonds Party in La-La-Land | Wolf Street
Incrementally, the fed has their errant self-amended stabile prices goal of 2% inflation which is currently not in compliance pushing for stability or slight raising of rates. Trump wants rates radically lower rates to reduce debt servicing costs and stimulate the economy, but we know that artificial stimulus returns less than a dollar on a dollar’s stimulus and lower rates only incentivizes the government to incur more debt which in the long term is worse for the economy than any short-term gain.
We need to get back to authentic capitalism where investments are made with savings not via MMT or other gimmicks. We need to allow for market price discovery including for interest rates, to assure correct economic decisions free from stimulus, temporary government incentives or dictates from a board of self-aggrandizing elites. We need government to spend less than its revenue and pay down the debt. Without doing those basics, we will always have economic trouble.
You lower rates. That’s what N-gDp level targeting is all about.
And when will we see those 10% credit card rates? Or 5% on a poor person 100 usd account?
Who cares about the big buck folk when the poor are being stripped bare and taught to be economically stupid trained to want shiny things.
Read Roberto Saviano’s books Gomorrah and Zero, Zero, Zero.
In the first book he writes about a friend he made in the Camorrah that hand sewed knock off clothes. The guy quit to drive truck when he saw Paltrow at the Oscars in a dress he sewed.
Then they brought in Chinese worker.
During COVID there were 30k Chinese workers in Italy.
Most making knock offs.
Everything bank or political is crap to create a false argument for the “well we tried” mentality.
What modern society gets wrong is the trends are not from the top down but the bottom up. Money pressure, more shootings and violence.
More homeless and working poor than monied. Wasn’t a local pol just set on fire in his office?
I’ve seen the Vegas as a canary in a coal mine story for six months. Now it has bubbled to the surface.
Just a tip dress as poor as possible and keep your home lower quality then your neighbors cause they ain’t gonna rob the poor folk house next to the nice house with all bright and shiny stuff.
I know this home renter that his renter was robbing his house as he spoke on the phone to her, a back rent kind of thing. But he was shocked when I said she probably robbed the two upper class homes right next to her. She knew when they were gone.
You rob one house and the others are easy targets.
They say that’s how Covid got to Italy so quickly – through the Chinese garment workers.
I don’t play the schoolyard up/down vote game, but this seems like some Homeopath that has a hissy fit.
All because due the science before doing the med idea was stated.
Didn’t vegan and animal lover Linda McArtney finally choose animal tested treatments before she died?
She must have done the SCIENCE.
Hot sauce Homeopath strikes again.
The Harry Hoxsey clinic still exists in Mexico. They left the US in the 50’s.
Many pro stories for the treatment.
And Hoxsey did win his court case. Sadly the AMA wanted his work.
There is a documentary, maybe from when IMUS was on tv, about Cancer/AIDS treatment around the world and how the AMA tries to crush them. Imus personally knew one of the NYC doc’s with a fairly decent treatment rate.
I guess there are many route one may take.
Is Trump’s Tariff Tirade a Pyrrhic Victory?
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/is-trumps-tariff-tirade-a-pyrrhic
A retired cia analyst should understand what’s essential to the US. Copper ore from Canada aren’t subjected to 50% tariffs. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on copper pipes and wires. Larry Johnson, Scott Ritter and col Mickey doomsday scenarios didn’t materialized. They are selling hate and sentiment.
Who? Do you mean people with a more objective take on things?
Where does Whitney Webb fit into your profiling?
Is it 2026 yet?
PALMISTRY, n. The 947th method . . . of obtaining money by false pretences [by] “reading character” in the wrinkles [of] the hand. The pretence is not altogether false. . . for the wrinkles in every hand submitted plainly spell the word “dupe.”
Ambrose Bierce
Senator Scott wants to cancel payments on bank reserves. Instead of parking at the Fed for a riskless 4.4% the banks will lend to large and small businesses.
If a new Fed chair will cut banks reserves rates by a half $3.4T will pour into the economy. The yield curve is defective. Gravity between US10Y and the German10Y will not not indicate inflation. If the Fed will cut both EFFR and bank reserves rates gov and consumers debt will shrink fast
Correction.
Banks will lend to large businesses with high expectations of survival.
Small businesses not very much.
Small businesses come and go.
Large businesses have staying power through recessions.
Unless private equity buys them, strips the assets, and sells the pieces at the market.
During recessions large businesses throw a few crumbs to small businesses they need to help them survive. Many immigrants business use new immigrants workers and contractors. They are smart tough SOBs. They are very elastic. They know how to survive. Many small businesses fold, with or without recession, but come back with a new name and business plan, in repetitions, until it clicks. What else can the owners do.
You mean the Indian truckers that cause very horrendous accidents and cut holes in the cab to go potty while they drive?
At least the Chinese and Koreans have some class.
No, the banks will buy more treasuries.
The banks don’t, third parties affiliated with BIGGOV do. That is why the 4. Cayman Islands The Cayman Islands is a global tax haven. Many investment firms are headquartered in the Cayman Islands, holding a big chunk ot the U.S. Treasuries. As of July 2025, the Cayman Islands holds $441.3 billion of U.S.
“Correction.
Banks will lend to large businesses with high expectations of survival.”
Now what does Too Big To Fail men in that context?
Banks won’t go for nonearning assets. They will increase bank credit and inflation.
If the risk is high they will charge 18%/30%. If the risk is low they will charge 3%/5% above 10Y rate. They borrow o/n to lend and borrow o/n to repay. Banks credit increases inflation, but the yield curve is defective. Thus, investing in safe and successful co protect investors and banks from a stealthy inflation. US treasuries don’t. Yield can be negative or zero and they pay in deflated dollars. In the 70’s/80’s Michael Milken charged high rates, when the Nasdaq took off.
Any small businesses still around after the Covid Theater, with governments, Corporate America, Mainstream Media and Karens trying their best to kill them off 4-5 years ago, are quite resilient!
Dope dealers always earn even in prison.