Hot and Cold
ADP forecasts run hot and cold as measured by prediction vs actual results. But this time the ADP forecast and the consensus estimates for the BLS report essentially match.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate for ADP was 500,000 jobs in a range of 260,000 to 775,000.
The consensus estimate for the BLS jobs report itself is 625,000 in a range of 439,000 to 1,000,000.
Other Predictions
Consensus is for payrolls of 650k this Friday. BofA forecast 1000k, Barclays 900k, Goldman 775k, MS 700k, JPM 650k & Citi 600k. So the major banks are almost all > consensus. Uncertainty is huge. One year ago, March 2020 was actual -701k vs consensus -100k. Big surprises coming. pic.twitter.com/VtKiDwd7MT
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) March 31, 2021
Predicting Predictions
The 500,000 consensus estimate for the forecast nearly matched the 517,000 number ADP did forecast.
Does anyone else find it amusing to be predicting predictions?
Bond Market Reaction
- 3-Month Bill: Flat
- 5-Year Note: Flat
- 10-Year Note: Flat
- 30-Year Long Bond: Flat
Setting aside philosophical questions regarding predicting predictions, 517,000 would be a very strong report that could easily had an impact on the bond market.
Instead, yields didn’t budge.
Is a strong jobs market already priced into bond?
Mish
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The worse the real economy, the better stocks do?
My guess is this is bullish for stocks because the fed continues to accommodate and congress continues to stimulate?
“Does anyone else find it amusing to be predicting predictions?”
What do you call the derivative of a guess? lol
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of phenomenal months of job creation as people go back to work. Put me down as expecting more upside surprises for while..
I think the reason bonds didn’t move instantly is because everybody knows the Fed is committed to ZIRP….but with yields already rising, maybe it was priced in already.
“What do you call the derivative of a guess? lol” LOL
Why would bonds move? Fifteen years ago the market would have moved but that was a different world where bond vigilantes ruled the market sensitive to each inflation figure or deficit number. They rule no longer, they know it and don’t care anymore.
A wild ass guess 🙂