ADP revised August from +54,000 to -3,000 making 2 straight months of declines.
The ADP® National Employment Report for September was a disaster.
- Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September
- ADP conducted its annual preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report in September based on the full-year 2024 results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September compared to pre-benchmarked data.
- Job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors.
- “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP
Change by Industry
- Goods-producing: -3,000
. Natural resources/mining 4,000
. Construction -5,000
. Manufacturing -2,000 - Service-providing: -28,000
.Trade/transportation/utilities -7,000
. Information 3,000
. Financial activities -9,000
. Professional/business services -13,000
. Education/health services 33,000
. Leisure/hospitality -19,000
. Other services -16,000
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size
Month-Over-Month Details
- 1-19: -19,000. Down 5 Straight Months
- 20-49: -21,000. Down 4 of Last 5 Months
- 50-249: -11,000. Up 4 of Last 5 Months
- 250-499: -9,000. Down 5 Straight Months
- 500+: +33,000. Up 4 of Last 5 Months
ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year
- Small: 1-49 Employees
- Medium: 50-499 Employees
- Large: 500+ Employees
Small businesses are getting clobbered by tariffs, as predicted in this corner.
The BLS is scheduled to report on Friday but won’t because of the government shutdown.
ADP Statement on QCEW
In September, ADP conducted a preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report based on full-year 2024 results from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in the September 2025 ADP National Employment Report. The number of jobs created in August 2025 was revised from 54,000 to -3,000.
ADP’s full-year benchmarking will take place in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 National Employment Report.
Note: The most recent release of the QCEW contained a higher-than-normal number of missing or redacted values for establishment size by NAICS sector and geography subgroups. This required the benchmark to be calculated at a coarser granularity than in previous years.
Above ADP Note Translated
People stopped responding to surveys.
I suspect a lot of small businesses went out of business or reduced headcounts more than has yet been factored in.
Trump-Related Sarcasm
Q: Is ADP in on the BLS conspiracy to make Trump look bad on jobs?
A: Obviously
Realistically, this is the expected result from inane tariffs. Close to half of all imports are items used in manufacturing, not end consumer items.
Small businesses and end consumers are getting killed by Trump’s tariffs.
Related Posts
June 16, 2025: QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.
September 9, 2025: New QCEW Data Indicates More Big Negative Revisions Coming to Job Reports
The discrepancy between jobs reports and quarterly data widens again.
September 5, 2025: Jobs Report Misery: Only 22,000 Gain in August, June Revised to -13,000
August was a bad month for job seekers. Here are the grim details.
September 5, 2025: Since January 2023, BLS Jobs Revisions Were Negative 24 Out of 31 Times
Witness negative revisions 77 percent of the time, with more coming.
Anyone who says the labor market is strong is clueless. The economy is cooling rapidly.
This morning, I noted Government Shutdown Begins, Hundreds of Thousands Could Be Furloughed
There will not be economic reports from the BLS, BEA, or Census Department, for the near future. This could last quite some time.
Click on above link for details.
The day starts with gold over $3,900 and alarm bells are not ringing regarding the massive loss of confidence in our financial system?
How quickly will gold blast through $4,000?
Owning the high quality dividend paying PM miners may be a saving grace as we enter Trumps depression. As many history buffs recall, Homestake Mining carried many families through the Great Depression as the company appreciated strongly and paid strong dividends.
Profits at the big miners are spectacular and both gross and net margins are eclipsing those of market darlings: Nvidia and Palintair. Oddly, investors in NVDA and PLTR do not seem worried about the vendor financing going on and the fact that 95% of AI deployments are not revenue positive.
All it will take is one failed Treasury Auction to tank the markets IMO and the race to the bottom could be on.
Countering this opinion is the fact that the world remains awash in liquidity and fund managers are loathe to sell anything. Buying the dips is the new financial religion because of course, “Its different this time”. 😉
A strong case can also be made that the Federal Government will now support the stock market as it is actively making investments in companies that further the administrations agenda.
AI does translate to be the rough equivalent of Orwells “Big Brother” with our phones and other electronic devices monitoring our every move.
Rather than be paranoid, I like to think of it as providing a record of being a “good guy” as my activities are all above reproach and generate a fair amount of revenue for the state and federal governments.
We live in a pay to play world kiddies…
“We live in a pay to play world kiddies…”
How many decades have there been lobbyists on K Street?
The government supported the stock market during the financial crisis and into thr 2010swith QE ans buying all kinds of bonds via the Fed. Anyone who thinks we live in truly capitalist system is deluding themselves.
This is true MODERN CAPITALIST SYSTEM.
Government makes sure Capitalists are making profit.
Socialise the losses and privatize the profits.
That’s Win-Win system / The house always wins.
Trump never sees a balanced picture when he’s making a decision; the world is black and white to him, not shades of gray.
His decision to implement tariffs was not done with a strategic scalpel. He applied it universally, even in cases where it would hurt his own constituency.
This recklessness shows that Trump is a loose cannon who is only held back by social traditions and the law. He CAN be controlled to a degree. Look at the way he pretends to be religious to win the support of the religious right. He is in fact an amoral, irreligious cosmopolitan from a big city where no one goes to church. In the same way, he might fire off a nuke or two, just to be one of the few presidents who had done it, but for the informal and formal prohibitions against the act.
He is not a stupid man. But he doesn’t read. He watches television. As a result, he has a crude, course kind of knowledge about the world. A literate, educated man would never do the things he has done, or act the way he has. What’s the lesson about Trump? Read, or suffer the consequences in this information-dense world.
=-=-=
dark . sport . blog IS MY WEBSITE. COME DROP BY FOR MORE OF MY WRITINGS
Promote your website elsewhere! MISH, get rid of this guy!
If you look at his comments, Trump is actually quite afraid of nukes.
– Trump never sees a balanced picture when he’s making a decision.
> He seems to have a perfectly balanced picture of this most recent debacle caused by the Democrats. He gave them what they already approved countless times, and asked them to do so again.
>> They played games as usual, so as usual, play silly games, win stupid prizes. Now they made more of a mess of things and for themselves as well, than they could ever have begun to imagine…
I fixed an obvious typo for you:
“This recklessness shows that Trump is a loose cannon who is
onlynot held back by social traditions and the law.”A simple google query of “Trump unprecedented” yields “about 3,930,000 results”.
NO THANKS!
US layoffs fall in September but year-to-date planned hiring at lowest in 16 years
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, a report said on Thursday, adding to evidence of a labor market standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of policy and technology advances.
The report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas does not normally attract much attention. But together with other private data, it has become more prominent due to a U.S. government shutdown that has led to major economic releases being suspended, including the closely watched employment report for September that was due on Friday.
The 15th government shutdown since 1981, which will lead to the furlough of 750,000 federal workers, has also delayed the publishing of the weekly jobless claims report, August factory orders and construction data. The trade report is also likely to be affected.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas said planned job cuts dropped 37% month-on-month to 54,064 in September. Employers have so far this year announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest year-to-date since 2020.
Hiring plans so far this year have totaled 204,939, the lowest year-to-date since 2009 when the economy was just emerging from the Great Recession.
LABOR MARKET IS STAGNATING
“Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases and a transformative new technology,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring.”
The Federal Reserve resumed easing policy last month, cutting its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range, to aid the labor market.
Economists say lingering uncertainty from President Donald Trump‘s trade policy, immigration raids and the rise of artificial intelligence, have combined to reduce demand and labor supply. Nonfarm payroll gains averaged only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year.
Challenger said the government accounted for the bulk of planned layoffs, with 299,755 job cuts announced so far this year, part of an unprecedented campaign by the White House to reduce the federal workforce. Trump threatened to fire more federal workers if there was a shutdown.
The surge in AI is costing jobs in the technology sector, with companies in the industry announcing 107,878 layoffs so far this year. Challenger said AI was also making it difficult to land positions, particularly for entry-level engineers.
“US layoffs fall in September but year-to-date planned hiring at lowest in 16 years
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, a report said on Thursday
Well, that’s interesting. That’s exactly what I said yesterday, and somehow our fearless leader branded me, for the 100th time, a Trump acolyte.
Interesting.
We were set to hire two people but notified today it is a hard hiring freeze. This js in the data center business. Something is amiss
GOLD $3900 , HAPPY HOUR EVERYONE!
Another Blaring Warning Sign About Trump’s Economy Is HereThe hiring rate has dropped—and that’s before a government shutdown.
https://newrepublic.com/post/201150/trump-economy-warning-sign-hiring-rate
Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/private-payrolls-declined-in-september-by-32000-in-key-adp-report-coming-amid-shutdown-data-blackout.html
The thing the US debt picture can least afford right now is a recession and decline in tax receipts. It seems like the plan is to goose the stock market and pray that it is enough to make up the shortfall. Investment income as a percentage of the overall economy continues to rise. But this is only investment income from the markets and not actual main street for the most part.
when gov runs $ 2 trl deficit in spending, whose month-2month gyrations
MEANS NOTHING.!!
Job growth has been decreasing since 2022.
Yet economists refused to call a recession back then when GDP declined for first two quarters in 2022.
That was to help the Democrats in the midterm to keep the focus on abortion and not a slowing economy.
I don’t trust Biden’s economic stats as much as I trusted Biden’s DOJ and FBI.
Those declines were due to companies slowing down purchases post COVID, so it didn’t rise to the level of contraction that the NBER requires to call it a recession.
Jobs are absolutely going out of the country, as are laborers.
Our impotent president need some viagra to get his chit together.
A new ballroom is not going to cut it!
What a shit show!
cool down
How are those new knee pads working out?
Viagra is the last thing he needs.
This time it is for the long term. Corporations don’t need America’s instability. Actually even America’s allies would gladly take them from America and are. This will accelerate in the coming months and years. We are so screwed. Truly time to head for the exits.
Trump needs to climb into his medbed, it malfunctions and some of our National Nightmare is over.
After shutting the useless congress claims will go up. Employment in large businesses will drop faster than small businesses. BLS and ADP reports are yesterday story, ancient history. Adjust, get used to it.
US Citizens getting hired while Illegals lose their jobs because of deportation. It all nets out. Nothing to see here.
Incorrect. Total full time employment is down since January. Net negative.
Only slightly negative because employers are unable to hire US citizens fast enough to fill slots left open by deportations. Nothing to see here.
Or they’re reluctant to because they’ll have to pay them more money which puts less profit in their own pockets.
You’re free to believe whatever. But the decline in jobs available, reflected in many data series, says you’re still incorrect.
Only time will tell. I predict jobs that can go overseas will. This includes white collar jobs.
bs. illegals if (big if ) worked for 10$ per hour.. no taxes
.
in USA you wont find reasonable person who wants work for 30$ per hour
++ taxes
Incorrect. I know plenty of young people working solid jobs for less than that. And I see many more of them every day.
– Change by Industry > More Detail would be great if available.
Goods-producing: -3,000
. Natural resources/mining 4,000 > NG & Oil?
. Construction -5,000 > Homes. Mostly?
. Manufacturing -2,000 > Need Orders?
Service-providing: -28,000
.Trade/transportation/utilities -7,000 > Disrupted and Very Expensive?
. Information 3,000 > Key: Information
. Financial activities -9,000 > No Flow Happening?
. Professional/business services -13,000 > No Play Money?
. Education/health services 33,000 > Key’s: Education & Health
. Leisure/hospitality -19,000 > No Play Money?
. Other services -16,000 > Misc. Basket?
– Small businesses are getting clobbered by tariffs, as predicted in this corner.
> During the inflation dilemma, and Tariff uncertainty, lots of Employees were kept on in hopes they would be needed and were trained and ready to go. They are all being let go wherever necessary now, as it’s that time of year.
– The BLS is scheduled to report on Friday but won’t because of the government shutdown. > Good! Less Trash…
– Anyone who says the labor market is strong is clueless. The economy is cooling rapidly.
> Indeed, but will it start getting better quickly over the next several Months? I read where that’s possible, but is it? I still say it will, but fairly slowly at first, and then all at once. When/if that starts is anyone’s guess, but it best do so before the Mid-Terms, so I’m holding onto that reasoning, for now anyway.
– This morning, I noted Government Shutdown Begins. Hundreds of Thousands could be Furloughed.
> We will and should see some unnecessary jobs retired permanently I would assume. As few as possible not needed and being paid won’t and shouldn’t be tolerated, if they can/should eliminate the positions.
The Tariff is destroying the US’s ability to consume. So the economy collapses.
President Caligula only needs to nominate a horse to head the BLS. Wait, he’s already done that with Kristi Noem, Hegseth and RFK Jr. So the next steed make them the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
The Postmaster General?
Given the deportation of an alleged 1.6 million immigrants by the Trump administration, I find it hard to believe that the jobs are not being filled by legitimate workers?
After all wasn’t the goal of deportation to give documented Americans jobs?
Not uncommon for Trump mathematics to fail the test of reality…
>>>
– Given the deportation of an alleged 1.6 million immigrants by the Trump administration, I find it hard to believe that the jobs are not being filled by legitimate workers?
> That’s 1.6M we do not need to work for any longer, so most of those jobs are not required. No need.
– After all wasn’t the goal of deportation to give documented Americans jobs?
> In some areas like construction perhaps yes, but not so much now. More about taking money Out of the Economy. Being paid under the table, no taxes collected, and unfair advantage in labor cost, thereby reducing Americans jobs/wages too. Adding exuberant amounts of Money to Educate and Care For the influx. Many more reasons as well.
– Not uncommon for Trump mathematics to fail the test of reality…
> He was Spot On in this example. He is and always has been very much in favor of Immigration, but Done Right, Vetted, Qualified etc. Not like it occurred, and never has been that I am aware of.
Agent Krasnov is succeeding beyond Master Putin’s wildest expectations.
4W Moving avg as of 9/20 dropped to 237,500, while 1st Time Claims have plunged from 264K to 218K since 9/6.
As of today, these claims numbers are definitely moving in the right direction, down. And they are the best examples of near, real-time employment stats. They aren’t misreported or subject to misinterpretation.
You continue to be a mostly clueless trump cheerleader.
Add continued claims to 27 weeks unemployed then let’s discuss.
I will post the numbers tomorrow.
We should have state data so I expect a report.
Not clueless, Mish. You just don’t like the fact that initial & 4W claims are trending lower. It doesn’t support “your” narrative that the labor market has gone off a cliff.
BTW – nothing I just said has anything to do with how much harder it’s getting for the unemployed to find similar work & pay from what they departed.
Each of those situations, new unemployment vs getting a new job, is looking at two different trends. I would have expected you to be smart enough to take that into account before grandstand with your “Trump cheerleader” yammer.
ICYMI, I’ve had two recent posts here on your site that I was calling into question several things about Trump that I don’t like.
Sorry, nice try, but that was a very big failure on your part.
Ben,
I doubt you could find your asshole with both hands and a mirror.
Just like Trump!
Frosty, why would I try to do that when all I’ve got to do is use toilet paper?
Dude, that was weak. You can do way better than that. Put your game face on.
Go big or go home with the insults. Add some real cuss words for added dramatic affect.
=d your asshole with both hands and a mirror.
what if BEN is just random Linux process run on some off shelf desktop in mi6 head quarters in London ?
or worse, FSB IN Moscow
:;))
You can really say some of the most left field things ever known to mankind. Just be mean like Frosty and make your point.
You must be new here.
No. I just really reply to your posts.
You must be going for the most negatives. You are almost there.
I could care less about negatives.
It’s obvious that Mishtalk has the largest concentration of anit-Trump / America posters that I’ve ever seen. This site makes the WSJ look like a Trump loving haven.
Continuing claims matter more than initial claims, and they are still elevated.
And nothing I said tries to suggest otherwise.
What I am saying is the new claims are trending in the right direction.
The new claims aren’t trending at all, just scraping along at lows. Initial claims series suspect since claims are much smaller as proportion of total employment than any historical precedent. Either something is broken or something has changed.
Wait, are you too low on Wisdom to understand that down is a good trend?
I know how to read graphs. I’m a technical professional with decades of market and Econ data experience. Like many people I don’t see a downtrend in that series.
In any case, you can’t get too excited about a single data series, they all have quirks.
I do see an uptrend in the other series Mish has highlighted here (continuing claims, unemployed > 15 or 27 weeks, unemployed ages 20-24, U-6, Sahm Rule, Mish’s rule…).
Many of those are clearly leading indicators.
I posted some additional ones last year when this came up already.
Initial Claims is an outlier and it has been at historically unprecedented (as share of population), low-but-not-declining levels for a few years.
=You just don’t like the fact that initial & 4W claims are trending lower.
what lower ?
buddy, just imagine FED GOV CUT 500 bln from spending.
it will be worse than 2007-2008 crisis!
just imagine FED GOV CUT $ 1 trln from spending.
it will be 2d great depression.
and dont get me started about balancing budget! last time : Clinton 2d term and dot coms
Feel free to go look up the graphs on FRED.
Both are trending lower. If you can’t read graphs, then you need to stop commenting. It’s a pre-requisite.
Maybe you should post links to your FRED charts because I definitely do not see anything looking like a downtrend on 6-12 month or longer timeframes.
4-week MA of weekly claims is in a gentle 2-3 year uptrend (higher lows), just as clear but not as dramatic as continuing claims.
don’t post useless data.
Why does it feel like George Costanza is negotiating these trade deals?
A lot is being said about this report cementing rate cuts by the fed. I believe the fed and prognosticators should take another look at that thought. First it is silly to think a business will take out a loan to hire, possibly a short-term bridge loan to make payroll, but not for new employees. A business may take a loan to expand that may or may not require more labor. The associated uncertainty with increased inflation from lower rates will cause business to rethink expansion if they become less confident of a positive return. Another problem is the fed influences short term rates, but market forces determine longer term rates, and the probability of more inflation may push long rates higher. Bottom line, it is not necessarily certain that the fed has influence on expanding payroll with lowering interest rates.
There may be a big drop in employment number next month as I believe the government employees that took a buyout were paid through yesterday there were counted as employed though not on the job. should not affect ADP report unless contractors are hired to fill positions, but that should have already taken place if it was necessary.
In many states taking a voluntary buyout does NOT disqualify one from receiving unemployment benefits. Those in DC get 26 weeks / $444. Maryland 26 weeks / $430, and Virginia 26 weeks / $378. That’s 1 week of groceries for a family of 4. Might as well not have unemployment program at all. Any severance pay only delays when one becomes eligible. It will be interesting if those laid off in the coming days are offered severance pay.
After cutting dems programs ADP and BLS will compete whose report is more negative.
Wait, there are even revisions in non-government reports? Better fire someone!
They’ve already been fired. That’s what the shut down has effectively done and why Trump doesn’t mind it one bit and even talks about some of them never returning (especially those negative report people – LOL)
What I notice from this private (non-government) ADP report is the huge revision. From many of the comments on this blog, I thought only government BLS bureaucrats were inept and/or purposely conspiratorial to screw Trump over with their statistics and revisions.
I can’t wait to hear from these same pos(t)ers why these numbers are correct and worthy of consideration, but the BLS methodologies are still completely inept.
Downvoted by reality haters
To be fair, reality ain’t great right now…
I was expecting this. Elect a Clown get a Circus…why is anyone surprised. The same thing will happen here when Nigel Farage & Reform win in 2029
If I conspiracy minded I would say that US government shutdown was to prevent the release of BLS Jobs report on Friday.
What I surprised about though is why the.tariffs haven’t shown up in headline inflation. Talking to family members living in the US people’s shopping habits have definitely changed.
Keeps a lid on that Epstein thing too:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5529055-republicans-grijalva-swearing-in-house/
I’m sure there’s no way to swear her in during a shutdown.
It’s never just A conspiracy with these people. It’s everything they think they can get away with, all the time.
If reopening government triggers the release of the Epstein files, then you’ve paid the IRS your last tax bill ever.
The closeted speaker of the house is protecting his pedo friend. If the speaker was 40 years younger his friend might enjoy his “servicing” better.
The shutdown is intentional for far bigger reasons than canceling one puny jobs report. Did you see what The Chicago Boys did in Chile once Pinochet came to power? Read the Wiki and realize that nearly the exact same scenario is unfolding here, except when Chile did it they promoted free trade while Trump is promoting protectionist and consumer taxation policies
All bad omens.
You knew when healthcare (HC)was the majority of job growth this will end badly. We can’t all get paid by hospital and go to another hospital for their business.
Moreover, if the US was a business HC would be a repair and maintenance expense. It advances next to nothing for the business, but acts like a tax draining capital from the system.
Enjoy the mismanaged Trump Recession – or worse.
Hurricane season is teed up… and it looks like it will be a doozy. Widespread suffering and death of American citizens due to lack of disaster relief is on deck.
Hurricane season is almost over. We have been very lucky. Almost every hurricane that was headed our way ended up turning north and heading into the Atlantic instead. Though there is still a bit of time till the end of the season. Hopefully we will remain lucky this year.
Yep, Papa. Hurricane season is almost behind us, but a stray, major hurricane is not out of the question. I think forecasters were expecting a much more active season, with 6-10 hurricanes, 3-4 being major hurricanes. We are falling well short of that at this late stage of the season.
There have been at least 46 major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the month of October between 1851 and 2019, with an average of about one major hurricane every three to four years based on the 1981-2010 climate period. October is a very active month for tropical cyclone development, sometimes accounting for 20% of the entire season’s activity.
From the google
Remember, hurricane seasons has shifted a little later.
This one appears to have a better trajectory. Let’s see how it develops.
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Hey, can you make my day & reply with an insult please???
Most of the ones that make landfall come in September and October. Prior to that its so warm over the land that hurricanes coming from Africa literally bounce off the high pressure systems over land and turn back out into the Atlantic (that’s one small benefit of warming climate).
But as of Oct 1st its cooling rapidly now over the continental US so anything that comes in October is highly likely to not bounce off.
Hurricane season runs from June to November and is 2/3 over.
Correct.
Most of the ones that make landfall come in September and October. Prior to that its so warm over the land that hurricanes coming from Africa literally bounce off the high pressure systems over land and turn back out into the Atlantic (that’s one small benefit of warming climate).
Unfortunately the hurricanes that develop in the gulf of Mexico out of nowhere tend to be larger now and those do come ashore because they have no where to go (last years major hurricanes were these types).
Apparently, investors like to see less than positive economic signals as confirmation of further fed rate cuts. Wall streets say buy stocks. However, they always do, regardless.