Growth is weak in four of five employer size categories. 
The ADP National Employment Report for July 2026 shows a sudden two-month plunge in large-business employment year-over-year.
Year-Over-Year Misfiring in 4 of 5 Employer Groups
- 1-19 Employees: 778,000
- 20-49 Employees: -80,000
- 50-249 Employees: -103,000
- 250-599 Employees: 28,000
- 500+ Employees: 62,000
Excluding businesses with 1-19 Employees: -93,000
The above totals to 685,000 but the sum of the parts is greater than the hole.
ADP reports the national total year-over-year as 650,000 unadjusted.
ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment
- Small is 0-49 employees: +698,000
- Medium is 50-499: -75,000
- Large is 500+ employees: +62,000
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Detail
Is employment dead except at the smallest of small businesses?
What we don’t have but need to properly analyze the data is the number of businesses.
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size
Month-Over-Month Change
- 1-19 Employees: 27,000
- 20-49 Employees: -4,000
- 50-249 Employees: 2,000
- 250-599 Employees: 6,000
- 500+ Employees: 13,000
ADP Change in Employment by Small, Medium, Large
This is very weak growth.
The trend small business employment since March, it isn’t pretty.
ADP vs BLS Private Employment Month-Over-Month
The BLS reports Friday.
It’s a crap shoot to interpolate much of anything from these numbers.
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I wonder how much deportations have impacted this since small business typically are the ones that hire them such as landscaping companies, restaurants, etc.
Once that slave labor is gone, the need is still there….
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-labor-shortage-boomer-retirements-wages/
The labor force is set to shrink by 2.7 million workers, or 1.3%, from 2030 to 2040, according to Ruggles’ analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and population growth projections from the Congressional Budget Office. That will come after the labor force grows by just 9.1 million people from 2020 to 2030, marking the smallest number of net entrants into the workforce since the 1960s.
I’m sure that analysis doesn’t factor in the planned 20 million deportations Trump wants to do.
What makes it slave labor in your view?
Definition of Slave LaborGeneral MeaningSlave labor refers to work performed by individuals who are either enslaved or treated as if they are enslaved. This includes:
CharacteristicsSlave labor can manifest in various forms, including:
Illegal (or even legal ones for that matter) often don’t have the same legal protections, they may pay into social security but will likely never receive any. They may pay taxes but may not qualify for any tax benefits. They often don’t qualify for any benefits like unemployment either.
The alphabet soup of visas makes (H1, H2, etc) an attempt to “fix” some of these issues but it’s just superficial makeup to hide the truth.
Here we are again 2 years into Trump’s administration and nothing has been done to fix legal immigration and nothing will be done because every business benefits greatly from the slave labor system.
It is almost as if the conservative political class uses hatred of immigrants to amass votes and power, not express authentic hatred.
Well that political class relies on slave labor, always has from African slaves to Chinese rail road slaves to what we have now.
Too bad the uneducated dimwitted MAGA base doesn’t get it nor understand it. Useful fools are good political tools.
Walt Bismarck, of all people, pointed out that Hispanics can be induced to vote Team R, but not necessarily so that Mitt Romney can hire cheaper day laborers.
What needs to be fixed in the legal immigration system?
That seems to be working just fine since it admits those of working age who can contribute to society and excludes those who can’t / won’t. Other than a few racists, most people welcome those who want to come here and work and integrate into society.
I’ll believe it when I see Hispanics in the bed of a pickup truck pulling a trailer of lawn tools under Texas’ 100F sun and the tall, blond Usonian beggar at the traffic light trade places.
KUDLOW: Why is it people don’t know there’s an economic boom? It’s not showing up in any of these numbers! How is that possible?
TUBERVILLE: Our economy is really good if you look at all the factors
I would say f*ck Scott Bessent but he might enjoy that.
He proposed a C shaped economy, he is good at sounding like he knows stuff while actually being totally FOS
KUDLOW should have stuck to tennis and doing lines of coke off his Torah
If the 250-499 category turns negative, it means main street has entered a recession, despite what wall street indicates.
Maybe small businesses are starting back up after tariffs.
Trust the plan
Taco’s billionaire economy.
Thanks for this.