This is my Hoot of the Day, candidate for Hoot of the Year.
Here’s an “election autopsy” Video Clip of Lichtman, hat tip @saras76.
“The keys depend upon a rational, pragmatic electorate, deciding based on governance, whether the incumbent party should get four more years. And we’ve seen explosion of some trends that have existed before but not to this extent. Elon Musk, I don’t know how many billions he has, has been the director of misinformation.“
This is difficult, but I will be very polite: Allan Lichtman, @AllanLichtman, is a first class politically arrogant moron.
He wants to decide who you vote for and why, based on “governance” that is important to him.
More Amusing Allan Lichtman Clips
This video clip by @EricLDaugh regarding Lichtman’s Election Night Commentary is funny.
My favorite line. “I’m not giving any interviews tomorrow.”
Here’s a funny one “Nate Silver’s compilation of polls is so unreliable that he now says that who will win the presidency is down to luck.“
And here’s a Comment for the Ages “Mark my words… The Keys 🔑 will be right again!”
Anyone care to mark those words?
Lichtman’s Bio: “Distinguished Professor of History: American University. Author of 13 books.”
Misinformation Campaign
- Democrats used lawfare to turn a misdemeanor into a felony and biased judge instructed the jury the jury did not even have to know what the precise crime Trump was guilty of. That conviction will be thrown out. The Judge should be disbarred.
- MSNBC, CNN, ABC, the View, CBS, New York Times, Washington Post, the Guardian, all repeated the claim Trump is a felon.
- The same group plus Biden, Harris, and fools like Lichtman, repeated the claim Trump is a fascist. Some compared Trump to Hitler.
- The same mainstream media covered up for Biden’s obviously deteriorating mental state, as did Harris.
- Mainstream media repeatedly engaged in Russia conspiracy theories, proven wrong, and never apologized.
- Mainstream media covered up for Hillary, Hunter Biden, and Joe Biden but hyped up every charge against Trump.
- Mainstream media was dead wrong on Covid and never apologized.
- Elite morons refuse to accept the idea that the vast majority of the nation does not want biological men competing in women’s sports. All the networks side with the elite morons.
Directors of Misinformation
The directors of misinformation are MSNBC, CNN, ABC, the View, CBS, Biden, Harris, the Washington Post, and alleged gurus like Lichtman.
Democrats sought to silence everyone who even slightly disagreed with any of the above.
Additionally, mainstream has hyped up every weather-related event as “climate change”. Half the nation is still brainwashed.
But assume I am wrong. So what? It doesn’t matter because the nation is more concerned about putting food on the table now than another 1 degree rise in temperature 50 years from now.
Note that Lichtman’s wife’s organization is the Vote Climate U.S. PAC. Can we please have an accounting of where every penny went.
And listen to this Mission Statement: “Vote Climate U.S. PAC works to elect candidates to eliminate all human-made, greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Only ZERO greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a slow reduction in the atmosphere over the next century.”
Anyone who donated is a total fool begging for more inflation.
Elite morons, living in their ivory towers, are more concerned about what may happen 50 years from now than the real pain the nation is feeling now.
Real or imagined, this is why it is impossible for government to mandate climate fixes faster than technology can deliver. People will revolt.
There have been Green energy revolts in France, Belgium, three German states, Austria, and now we have a collapse of the German government partially due to Green energy.
For discussion, please see Now Germany Has a Green Electricity Outage With Huge Consequences
Conclusion: Lichtman, Al Gore, Biden, Bill Gates, Harris, etc., are oblivious to the realities of climate change (both politically and the science itself).
Who Created Inflation?
There is plenty of blame to spread around, including the Fed, a global response to Covid, supply chain disruptions, and a war in Ukraine.
But the key #1 thing (hello Lichtman) is the totally unwarranted third round of fiscal stimulus by Biden.
In addition to stimulus, Biden’s free money student debt cancellations, eviction moratoriums, and the preposterous Inflation Reduction Act all added to inflation.
Cream Puff Interviews
It’s a real hoot for Lichtman to blame the media. Look at all the cream puff interviews of Harris on every mainstream platform.
60-Minutes edited a clip to make Harris look better.
And despite the obvious cream-puffiness of it all, Harris sounded like a babbling word saladitarian in every interview.
When asked by The View what she would have done differently than Biden, Harris replied with her only believable comment “There is not a thing that comes to mind.”
That truthful statement immediately confirmed the entire rest of her campaign was a big misinformation lie.
She tried to play both sides of fracking, both sides of Israel, and both sides of EVs, and literally both sides of everything (except for abortion lies) in ambiguous terms.
Regarding abortion, Harris is a proven liar, claiming Trump said things that he didn’t.
Harvard Professor Blames Media for Harris Loss
On November 8, I commented Harvard Professor Says People Are Better Off Than They Think, Blames Media for Harris Loss
Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and Chair of Obama’s CEA lectures people on how well off they are.
It’s the Media! [says Furman blaming one-sided media reports of inflation]
[I satirically replied] In academic wonderland, if we do not tell people they are losing money to inflation, then they wouldn’t know.
And then they would have voted for Harris. And that’s why she lost.
For more of my thoughts, please see Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture
There is massive Democrat soul searching today. Hardly anyone will get it right. This is despite huge evidence all year long.
Lichtman, like Furman both got it wrong. They both live in academic wonderland.
But Lichtman, goes a step further than Furman. Lichtman wants to tell you how to vote and silence everyone who disagrees.
There’s your real threat to democracy!
Glass Ceiling Breaks, Injuring Kamala Harris
Finally, please see my satirical explanation of what happened: Glass Ceiling Breaks, Injuring Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris and some high-ranking supporters graciously agreed to a Mish interview following reports the glass ceiling shattered over her head.
I guarantee you my satirical comments are far more accurate than anything either Lichtman or Furman said.
Meanwhile, and as expected, the meltdown and blame game by Democrats is the most from those who are the biggest threats.
Mr. Lichtman, care to debate what happened, why, and who called The Keys 🔑 right, in advance. Let’s go. How about it? Debate on?
I found a typo where I spelled “both” as “bot”. In editing, I couldn’t resist. I put babbling word saladitarian in italics.
“Mr. Lichtman, care to debate what happened, why, and who called The Keys 🔑 right, in advance. Let’s go. How about it? Debate on?”
Hosted live on ZeroHedge and moderated by…?
The man is obvious hack. We’ve been saying that all year. He said himself the Democrats are doomed if they replace Biden—right up until the replacement. The truth is they were doomed either way according to non-hack polling.
Maybe pay more attention to the polls they disparage. You know, the ones with the smallest average margins of error.
P.S. Nate Silver wasn’t even good at predicting baseball.
Wow…such a shoddy non-attempt at introspection. He’s basically saying that his model is fine… it’s somehow the electorate that is broken. Unbelievable.
Well to be fair, both the Democrats and the Republicans and their main stream media cronies and lobbyists and donors, any person or organization who pushes for debt and deficit spending and QE, have been full of misinformation. We’ll see how much spending cuts, what Elon said he would do, get done.
He is not a moron, he is a grab your ankles and shove your head up your rectum buffoon.
The thought process was not bad 9/11 is OK but many reached that level
If the key author had objective eyes viewing the same data and reported to him he may have come to a different viewpoint
But living in an echo chamber has it’s downside
Great stuff !
Unbelievable this is America.
This election has been very scary to me. The way Kamala went from a show piece VP to this great presidential candidate in a matter of weeks based on almost total BS.
Promoted by many organizations that we are suppose to trust!
I think the general public has given up entirely on the MSM. ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, etc. as they have become an absolute Joke!
They “Do Not” report News, but rather Propaganda for the Democrats, and mis-information that aligns with the Democrat “Talking Points” the majority of Americans are done with the BS they ALL Spew!!!
Ha! Just came across this.
So imagine this came true and Biden abdicates to Harris. Then Harris as President could declare Trump as a clear and present danger to the world order, invoke martial law, declare the last election invalid and put Trump in jail or before a firing squad. Tune in for details at 6pm!
Yes! And, and, and “they” would need a credible reason for the reaction Jojo has described in suspicious detail. … … How? Super easy. … Barely an inconvenience. … … A fire would start from a loooong fuse set by those dastardly Jan 6th insurrectionists. In the capitol building. Burning that building down.
They always have to try and drum up a silly controversy to try and sell more tacky ads.
The media exists for two purposes, which are not aligned: (1) To make money for the corporate owners; (2) To satisfy the emotional needs of the reporters who work there.
The corporate owners, by and large, leave the media entities alone. They are left on autopilot. Satisfied to skim profits and have the prestige of public influence megaphones, the corporate owners generally have a “hands-off” approach.
The reporters are dirty up to their elbows. They have been engaged since the beginning of the media in public manipulation, which they don’t do particularly well — but that doesn’t stop them from incessantly trying. Reporters are not natural leaders. They are eggheads who have monetized an abstract skill — writing — and made it into a lifeline for their egoistical concerns.
To look at an arena which DOES do public manipulation well, look no further than television. TV knows how to manipulate. TV successfully changes the complexion of the culture, both figuratively and literally.
The fact is, news isn’t fun, and the People are looking for a good time. Television provides them that good time, and so gets the affection of people. On my own blog, the fictional stories I write do better than the nonfiction articles on politics and technology. Speaking of which, you can read more of my writings there by going to: dark-dot-sport-dot-blog where the -dot- represents a period .
The “rational, pragmatic electorate” has never existed. That’s why the founders were so suspicious of democracy, and why they limited the powers of elected governments to protect the republic from runaway rule of the majority. The fact is that Trump and the Republicans, even possessing control of the executive and legislative branches will be able to make no more than incremental changes to our governance. That’s an America that leaves the important activity of the country in the hands of the citizens, not the government. And it needs to stay that way.
I never knew Lichtman’s wife was a “non-profit” vulture. But then, I shouldn’t be surprised. I’ve been following Alan Lichtman and his rival Helmut Norpoth since 2000. Both have had tremendous success forecasting elections by excluding polling data. Lichtman has 13 criteria and has been successful every election since 2000 EXCEPT for 2024. Norpoth has a different set of 11 criteria and has only missed two since 2000 PLUS 2024. Both of them were wrong this time. But Lichtman seems to have become more partisan — and cranky — as time goes on. He used to be quite straight and academic about the whole thing. I guess he takes his first loss in 24 years harder than Kamala does.
I saw one of them, not sure, making his prediction and two of the things he said worked in Harris’s favor are actually going the other way. He seemed incapable of understanding things as it relates the economy and numbers in general. He is in a way trapped in a doom loop of stupidity that feeds false information back into itself until it because to brah like a jackass. All assumptions/puns intended. At this juncture the BLS and other stalwart leftist agencies that produce this USSR/PRC like make-believe economic based numbers has become a running joke amongst most who are honest.
Totally agreed, Mish. Mr. Lichtman is just another leftist hack with significant sour grapes.
Looking forward to him being wrong again in 2028!
My respect for elite universities – and I graduated from one – has collapsed over the past decade.
Absolutely. If anything, a degree or attendance at an ‘elite’ university is actually a major warning sign for savvy managers or anyone doing hiring.
Hire the wrong person or two, and the disruptions they cause, could sink your company! Hire the wrong HR Rep and you could have law suits destroy your company too, as well as employee disruptions, like quits and bad press due to the BS these employees can and do and will cause, if you make the mistake of hiring them!
Now days, it’s not your company, but the workers who revolt, and tell or make up stories about your company to the MSM who gobble it up, and regurgitate it over and over and over, until you give up, or give in and quit, there hopeful outcome.
In time this will change and get back to normal, but until then, these disruptions could reek havoc, so be very careful whom you let into your circle or it will quickly become a square and with You stuck in the corner…
Getting gov’t out of the student loan business and letting student loans be discharged in bankruptcy will do wonders to cure academia of its disease.
President Donald Trump’s proposal to end taxes on overtime pay. “people more of an incentive to work.”
Voters that vote red or blue have made up their minds long ago. Voters that vote on who has the best promises wait till the end to decide. People who usually never vote need a real good promise (bribe) to get them out to vote.
The last few add cycles from Trump before the election, promised no taxes for overtime, and Tips. So one who never votes hear this will vote since this lines their pockets and gets the whole class of hourly workers that can do overtime.
States that do lots of manufacturing and have many hourly workers will get this herd of voters off the sofas and couches and out to vote to get this promised wind fall.
Depending what you do, “no overtime taxes” could add up to tens of thousands of dollars every year.
There are over 34 million people that were paid overtime in 2023. If only 10% of those cameout to vote, that otherwise would have not, this would have been enough to put him over the top.
Tell me what you want but greasing the palm of voters always works.
Did you miss the blatant giveaways by Biden and Harris to favored groups? At least Trump is favoring work
You are correct the moment the thieves get sworn then the golden era promised will get tarnished with debt as far as the eye can see.The king and his minions are back.
With their own money, too!
If the overtime pay rate wasn’t already pumped up, Trump might have a point. However, his proposal does NOTHING to boost productivity during regular work hours, and is more than likely going to reduce productivity. A similar issue occurs with tip income. Making it tax free, is an incentive to game the system.
I think that “IS” the point! The Government has gamed the system for years, by adding on more, and more taxes. Time worked taxed, but overtime untaxed seems fair. Why should the Government get above and beyond what’s expected of you, because you go above and beyond for your company? Just like S/S Tax is again, the Government overtaxing! They taxed you your whole life, and when now retired, you choose to work a bit extra for some needed cash, and they Tax You once again, and that’s wrong too imo. They are already Taxing your retirement money that you already worked for!!! How Much is Enough???
Musk helped bring some “bros” votes to Trump but the real reason the Dems lost is simple – Harris was a POOR candidate!
The Dem party is controlled by the blacks, particularly the woman. Black political brokers like Jim Clyburn, who was instrumental in leveraging Biden as the Dem candidate in 2020, again threatened to withdraw his block support from the Dems if Harris, a black female, wasn’t the candidate. The party capitulated.
Weren’t you the one saying Harris was going to win in a landslide?
I was indeed. I still can’t believe that a even a potted plant like Harris couldn’t beat Trump but hey, it’s hard to deprogram CULT worshippers from voting for their leader.
They will go to the Earth with him as poisoned kool-aid is poured down their throats..
Back to boxed wine jojo. Introspection dear.
Don’t drool, if you drink from the box please, as it’s a very bad look!
Credit to you for acknowledging. May I suggest that it was surprising Trump didn’t win more convincingly against – as you say – a potted plant. The electoral votes show a landslide, but actual votes indicate it was closer than you’d think considering the disastrous policies of Biden/Harris with the economy, border, censorship, covid, etc.
Quite the cope. He gained in virtually every county in America
The bickering and the boasting will continue till reality sets in then Mish will post more incendiary comments and then I will say I told so.
Look at the electoral map and then rethink who the cult members are. You leftists will place blame on everyone and everything except where it belongs. the people of this country overwhelmingly told you they aren’t buying what you’re selling. It’s that simple.
I’m not a “leftist”. I am center-right politically.
Harris was such a poor candidate, which if you look back at Mish’s blogs around the time she was put forth, you will see that I said that Harris would be a bad choice.
However, once she was was anointed, there was nothing further that could be done but to accept the choice or accept Trump.
I believe Trump is a real danger to the world order. I hope he manages to fix immigration and the border situation. I look forward to him backing Israel more strongly than Biden did.
But I worry about what effect his policies will have on Taiwan, Ukraine, tariffs, NATO, the environment and much more.
Trump is only a danger if you consider the world order as it is to be a good thing. It isn’t. Frankly why should Americans care about Taiwan and Ukraine? The Taiwanese are so worried about invasion from the mainland that they do not even allow personal gun ownership. Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe and has a complex history with Russia that is not understood by the majority of Americans. Do we want our sons to die for them? NO F—ing Way.
The cult members are the ones who think men can get pregnant and the covid vaccine plus 8 boosters are actually a vaccine even though it won’t stop you from getting our spreading covid
I think that’s exactly why Trump Won in a landslide, as people got tired of being fed “Poisoned Kool-aid” by their Government in charge.
Last time Trump was in office, the Country Did Awesome, and People were Happy, and making Money, and felt safe and secure in their Homes. So They Voted for more of that, instead of the absolute misery “We Have All Endured”over the past 4 Years of utter BS!!!
I dont think Trump signing the Cares Act, which addrd trillions more to our debt, and telling Powell to cut rates which he did with dollar debasement, was good for the country.
Harris was indeed a poor candidate, but as we see with Trump, individual traits don’t matter nearly as much as the policies. So no, the real reason Dems lost is because their policies are insanely poor and it wouldn’t have mattered if they had JFK reincarnated running against Trump, he would have been slaughtered also with the same policies. Give the electorate a little bit of credit here.
Mish , one of your best post ever . You could have added Harris paying celebrities big dollars to campaign with her and the likes of Opray and Gaga telling women that if Harris didn’t win that Trump would likely take away there rights to vote . You can also add the Left politicians and their celebrity minions lecturing everyone on C02 all while they blast 100s of times the c02 into the atmosphere flying around in their jets and living in 10000 square foot mansions . They have no intentions of changing their lifestyle but want to raise energy and inflation on the common people.
I have come to the conclusion these people are serously sick in the head.
New Thieves at the helm it should work let me read some more.can’t wait to see where the boat goes .
Why Harris Losthttps://www.theamericanconservative.com/why-harris-lost/
Those ‘keys’ might be fine, but he clearly misinterpreted them.
“No scandals in the Biden presidency”? Ummmm Afghanistan? Biden laptop?
Attempted vaccine mandate, senility-gate, fake primary, lawfare, nordstream. There are soooo many more.
Broken border. Worst inflation in 45 years etc….Nothing but scandal
Lichtman is a former academic and Democrat aparatchik – a class of people that are insulated from reaping the consequences of the terrible ideas they sow. That is a situation that allows people like Lichtman that gaslight themselves.
Hasn’t Twitter LOST users since Musk took over? And most of those lost were likely liberals. So what happened to the missing 8-10 million Biden voters from 2020?
Where have you gone, all the Biden voters?
The DNC turns its teary eyes to you
Woo Woo Woo
What’s that you say, Ms. Kamala?
Sleepy Joe has left and gone away
Hey Hey Hey
Hey Hey Hey
Maybe it’s time to move on? Time to look forward.
The media is still calling the January 6th protest an ‘insurrection’ to agitate the public that is amenable to hating their conservative neighbors. Can we move on from that?
Why don’t you ask them? Take action.
We have. But we’re just getting started.
b-b-b-but naranjo hombre malo!!!!!!
No, no! El Presidente Trump es mas macho!!
Only after the repercussions have been dealt. Some people have to pay for the last four years and the stolen election.
Lost fake users
Just like the Dems lost 13m fake voters
Just like YT channels are losing fake subscribers post election…
Keep it simple stupid. They were unhappy with the choices they had to choose from and sat out the election. Not only did they not vote for Harris as president, they did not cast votes down-ballot, which is why the Dems have lost the Senate and lost their chance to regain the House.
Hopefully, the Dem leadership understands this and will endeavor not to make the same obvious dumb mistakes again.
That would presume that they show up in the next election if their choices are much better. What will the excuse be if they don’t then? They all moved to Canada?
Why don’t you wait until then to see what happens and make an informed comment as opposed to all the BS you spew around here daily?
The money is flooding in, but what are prediction markets truly telling us?https://sherwood.news/business/the-money-is-flooding-in-but-what-are-prediction-markets-truly-telling-us/
“babbling word saladitarian”
Fing awesome!
Thanks
I invented that phrase – Maybe I should have put it in bold.
I found a typo where I spelled “both” as “bot”. In editing, I couldn’t resist. I put babbling word saladitarian in italics.
Homo Saladicus, a devolution from Homo Sapiens.
Side note: I believe “word salad” was coined by Scott Adams some years ago as a description of behavior that indicates cognitive dissonance.
The fundamental problem with politicians, pundits, and elites, especially on the left, is their inability to admit mistakes.
The more elite they think they are the more right they think they are too.
In other words, their shit doesn’t stink.
Well, he bought a massive media company and ran it into the ground with Nazi BS. Did he do it to lose billions, or was there another motive? Hmmm…. That’s a puzzler.
7.5 trillion deficit for 2025. Book it.
Keep seething.
So how could this have dissuaded the 10 million missing Biden voters?
Free speech is good.
Your casual use of the word “Nazi” is an insult to all those mudered in the Holocaust by actual Nazis. Go and read a few books, or better still, go and visit Auschwitz, rather than being crass reprobate. Children died naked in toxic gas, crying to death.
Are you crying right now?
Hey folks, we’ve found Kamala’s burner account!!
Most of the Democrats problems were that they ran on “we aren’t as bad as Trump”. While I believe that to be true, it doesn’t inspire people to vote for you, especially when the country has been going generally in the wrong direction for a couple of decades (through both Republican and Democratic administrations). I don’t see any Trump plans that will stop the decline (and I didn’t see any Harris (or Biden) plans that would do so either) so I continue to prepare for the worst.
It may take a decade or more to fix the damage that has been done. Maybe after JD’s second term. Stay tuned. A lot of work to do
Vance – Gabbard 2028
Well lets have proper primaries… could be Gabbard – Owens 2028 – two Right-wing “women of colour” to really piss on the Dems chips.
If Trump/Vance stop (mostly) illegal immigration and tamp down inflation, those won’t be the issues of he 2028 campaign. Barring a total financial meltdown due to the unsustainable debt/deficit, other issues will come to the fore. Democrats may have reverted to relative normalcy or they will have moved on to next level insanity – maybe bestiality marriage or something.
The only certainty is that at the end of every “term”, the country will be worse off than at the beginning. As long as a Fed exists, that CAN NOT fail to be true.
You need to add WSJ to the list of fake news and/or anti-Trump and anti-musk propaganda disinformation list along with WaPo, NY…
An example of disinformation and gaslighting by WSJ below…
Secret Meetings, Big Money Drove Republicans’ Senate Wins – WSJ
Thank God for Elon Musk. Musk has done more good for America than most people in Congress. By far.
Why he didn’t say that a week ago?
“Trump will win, because he and Musk are truly intelligent media manipulators.”
But he talked about Trump, Musk and Vance like a bunch of mad hillbillies…
They like to have it both ways – criminal mastermind and banjo-strumming hillbilly.
Forever placing responsibility/ “blame” externally keeps one from thoughtful introspection and personal growth.
On the flip side, there were a number of posters regularly commenting here that the presidential vote would be corrupted to a significant extent. Do they now think the voting process is relatively sound? (As opposed to the primaries, which are openly manipulated or, like this year, skipped altogether and a candidate is just appointed by someone)
Republicans stepped up their poll watching game.
Where have you gone, all the Biden voters?
The DNC turns its teary eyes to you
Woo Woo Woo
What’s that you say, Ms. Kamala?
Sleepy Joe has left and gone away
Hey Hey Hey
Hey Hey Hey
Everyone is afraid of the woke mob because people who disagree get cancelled, sued, demonetized, or their advertisers bail for fear of the same.
Real news moved to X because the only way to safely say what you think is to say it anonymously.
Back in the day the left was the party of free speech. They totally went the other way. They now believe in censorship and worse.
Add peace vs. war machine. That’s a big change.
Alas this horde of cultural revolution reprobates doesn’t generate any wealth to share.
Lichtman is producing his own disinformation. Not impressed with his Gaslighting.
Most voters went with Donald the supposed felon rather than choosing the Unknown. Kamala seemed to be under the control of unknown players.
Donald was at least— the Devil you know.
One can dismiss such a person
Musk allows misinformation on Twitter. That is what free speech does
That does not make him the director of misinformation
And the problem with the entire concept is who decides what is misinformation?
Mish is right and all people who are capable of critical thought have seen over the last 4 years that the government and others in a position of authority are the principal purveyors of misinformation
It is absolutely critical that thought and the ability to express thought through speech remains free.
as i have written at my bangpath substack, the moment you limit speech, especially if the government is involved in deciding what speech is allowed, you have instantly lost free society and all notions of democracy
That’s why it’s the first amendment.
The 13 keys system is a valuable tool, if you apply it in an unbiased manner. However, Lichtman was calling for Trump’s removal in the first year of his term, so any unbiased analysis was out of the question. By my reckoning, the Biden/Harris administration had at best 5 and at worst, 3 keys out of 13.
Have pity on him. He is like a little lamb lost in the deep forest hearing the howling of wolves and with no sheepdog in sight.
If only Beyonce had done more concerts. Or Taylor Swift had endorsed earlier.
Or if Camelface had run earlier and avoided more interviews.
“Over the last few months, unauthorized border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border are at or near the lowest level in the last few years (True)”
There is a fine example of misinformation. Technically it’s true only because of the careful selection of the timeframe, the last few months. You are supposed to ignore the previous three and a half years of out of control immigration.
That quote is from Ritholtz’s blog page yesterday. As usual he’s claiming Republicans are low information voters, yet he never leaves his Bloomberg echo chamber.
Barry and the whole Bloomberg crew have massive TDS. Almost hard to listen to anymore its so biased against Trump.
With all the crossings in the past few years, why is the total number of illegal aliens stuck at the 11 million estimate that has been used since the mid 2000s?
Insightful and complete analysis, Mish.
Thanks
Even Mish don’t understand what the people have done the poloi was so made at the system that they choose apartheid child a drug addicted clown and a felon to direct the show but one thing I agree there was no choice and never was the system is rigged the illusion continues one more election and we get the correct .gov.
Could you repeat that in English?
No can do.
I have no idea what he said either, nor based on George’s “no can do” reply to you, George doesn’t either. Was George helping Harris on the teleprompter?
Had to check the reading level of this comment; it has some big words and, as expected, is beyond my capacity.
When listening to Kamala, at best, she spoke like a bad corporate lawyer — paid by the word; lots of caveats; grammatically correct but devoid of a conclusion.
—-
Linsear Write Grade Level Formula
Score: 31.50 [ = grade level ]
Reading Difficulty: Extremely Difficult
Grade Level: College Graduate
Age Range: 23+
A wise observer recently came up with the phrase “babbling word saladitarian” to describe just this type of comment!
“This is difficult, but I will be very polite: Allan Lichtman, @AllanLichtman, is a first class politically arrogant moron.”
I think you were as polite as possible given the situation.
Laughably the Fed. Election Commission has reported the Harris campaign outspent the Trump campaign by $3 to $1. Even then, they still didn’t buy enough votes.
The idiocy, though, regarding the Climate crisis, is we can stop the imminent destruction of the planet simply by banning coal and building windmills–yes, I’m exaggerating.
In a real crisis, not an invented one, more would be required, such as banning all private planes, cars, and boats. Since breathing releases CO2, a greenhouse gas, breathing will be limited to every other breath. Water vapor in greenhouse gas #2, so no watering the gardens, washing cars, taking long showers, etc. We’d also start limiting the energy demands of homeowners, eg, no clothes dryers etc. We couldn’t plant more trees because they give off water valor, while taking in CO2–not sure what to do about that….
So, it’s not a REAL crisis.
Funny how on this board Elon was a corporate welfare recipient… and now that he’s sucking up to Dear Leader, he’s a great man all of a sudden.
This is what moral bankruptcy looks like.
TDS
Elon had a dream… it ended when his son changed his gender. Around then, he saw DEI in action, and realized the democrats were the evil they’ve always been.
Only then, he realized it takes freedom of speech to point all of that out, not a liberal hive-mind.
When presented with evidence contrary to your belief, a wise person changes his belief.
I changed my opinion of him when he tried to force his moronic submarine into that cave rescue, and called the guy that pointed out how stupid that was a “pedo”.
Garbage people demand garbage representation.
You demand perfection you will always be disappointed. Not all old white dudes living in Thailand are pedophiles but enough are that even their government recognizes it is a big problem.
So you just get to call any old white dude there a pedo, because he hurt your fee fees? Stupid and childish.
That was just the start of him revealing himself as a megalomaniacal, mentally ill fraud. He’s been digging with both hands ever since.
When looking at the vote results map showing every county & parish in the Nation this Lichtman character is totally out to lunch, it wasn’t any sort of media that was the catalyst of this mandate. The people have simply woken up to the fact that the Democratic Party is the more insidious of the duopoly. It wasn’t so much about voting for Trump but voting against Harris & the Democratic Party.
Models, models, everywhere, but not a drop to think.
Look at how hideous the Brandon regime was.
1) 25% cumulative inflation
2) Orchestrating an intentional border invasion, and pretending otherwise
3) Endless unconstitutional unwinnable wars and battlefield humiliations
4) Lawfare on steroids
5) Forced mRNA clot shot injections and unnecessary martial law
6) Runaway deficit spending
7) Divisive and hideous re-formulated marxism including genital mutilation and boys destroying women’s sports
8) An incapacitated President, and a truly vacuous VP
9) A Democratic Party coup to install a Biden successor
10) Overt censorship, court packing schemes, vote packing schemes like mail-in ballots, and “judicial activism” policies promoting abolishing the Electoral College and undermining the Constitution.
This should have been a far bigger blow out, but at least citizens everywhere could see how ghastly and utterly incompetent this administration was.
Demontia.
You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If your net worth is under 10 million, the next 4 years are gonna be rough for you.
The misinformation was rampant and I saw it play out last Friday while standing in line at the bank. An older couple was talking with a teller about what to do with their maturing CD. The husband was in favor of locking in 3.50% for 12 months vs. going with 4.00% for 5 months. He and the teller were on the same page that interest rates on CDs will likely continue to fall this year into next year. The wife, who had not spoken up yet, but obviously did not like what she was hearing about the interest they would be earning falling, said to her husband, “I thought you told me that if Trump won EVERYTHING would be better.” This is just the tip of the iceberg. Inflation has been falling steadily since July 2022 and is almost back to the target 2.0% rate, but that disinflation is at risk now due to obviously inflationary policies such as across large systemic tariffs on most imported goods, a lower U.S. Dollar versus other currencies, and a significant reduction in the workforce, particularly in agriculture and hospitality industries. Voters overly concerned about consumer prices voted for a candidate whose most prominent policy proposals are inherently inflationary.
I’ll take things that never happened for 500.
They need to change banks. The CD rate is lousy.
Also, the factors driving the debt market are infinitely more complex than any bank clerk would understand. Tariffs are only part of the discussion–the elephant in the vault is the vast debt, public and private.
I worked in banking for 15+ years. I have been in financial services for 35 years. CD rates are driven by Fed Funds. CDs are a funding source for banks and as a funding source, CDs compete with the Fed Funds Rate, another funding source. After the last Fed rate cut, bringing Fed Funds Rate down to 4.50-4.75%. CDs will price below that rate if the banks want to attract sticky deposits as a funding source versus borrowing from the Fed. My point was not about CD rates, my point was to illustrate an example of a low information voter who assumed that if she voted for Trump that ALL things would be better and for her that means that she would earn more on her CDs, not less.
Yes. And she prob has always looked to her husband’s advice.
I’d recommend T-bills instead of CDs, but that needs some internet savvy.
You’re trying to explain economics to a house pet.
Good lord. You reek of self righteous moral superiority. Is “low information voters” the new leftist cope?
It sounds like you think that with inflation “falling”, rates should be going down. Some are, some aren’t. The 10 year is up 1/2% from mid-September when the Fed cut by 1/2%.
I have to wonder how bad things will have to get to puncture their bubble of denial. Gonna be funny watching them justify inflation worse than that brought on by the Pandemic handouts.
Joe held this creaking mess of an economy together for 4 years, and trump is going to get the massive crash he set up in his prior term.
I expect a lot of “buh but Biden” in the coming months. It’s gonna be hilarious.
Why bother giving this guy any oxygen at all??? He’s not worthy.
Let Lichtman wither & disappear.
At least all these overpaid pundits and deep state pawns self-identify. And the more they talk, the more you can see how unhinged they are with their race baiting, endless calls for censorship, denial, and their alternate limousine liberal universe they exist in outside the real world. Citizens have been crushed, suppressed and battered by four years of intentional hell these incompetent and greedy DC parasites have unleashed. Voters had had enough.
“Words matter!” Yes, they do. Lies, calumnies, logical contradictions, abject sophistries, all funneling into an economy which has big problems, inflation number one. Lies based upon other canards like “he is a THREAT TO OUR DEMOCRACY.” Yeah, no. He just won in a landslide shifting the entire country. Oh, so that’s not what democracy means? Let alone the fact that we are a constitutional republic. Another giveaway being when “constitutionalist” SCOTUS members read by plain text and historical tradition, there is an outcry to pack the court. Lawfare, another sophistry to use political power to over rule fact. Pragmatic comes from the ancient Greek “pragma”, the thing. Common sense is our main faculty to deal with things, because they are there in front of us, not speculation, not abstraction, not ideology and future fictional scenarios. Yes, let’s get back to our pragmatic American roots, as expressed by a large majority of voters in this election across the entire country.
Yeah, where are the endless questions about that threat now? It should be a cacophony.
“Elon Musk fucked up OUR DEMOCRACY®!”
He bought it. Hasn’t fucked it up yet, but it’s coming. I wonder if he and Thiel will have conflicts… trump is Elon’s puppet, Elon is Putin’s puppet, and Vance is Thiel’s puppet.
White trash puppet shows always end up being Punch and Judy.
What gets me more than anything….the top of my list of gripes….is how POLITICS are simply ALL that we seem to focus upon. If we had done that in our business affairs, nothing would have gotten done.
Sure, it paid me well to know my enemies within (the Corporations, including MY OWN HIGH TECH COMPANY, which I found to be the MOST CHALLENGING when it came to insidious politics – rumors – hype about our Policies, etc.)….but to RUN A COUNTRY THIS WAY, if we REALLY EXAMINE WHAT IS GOING ON, is truly ludicrous.
We are looking to LIARS, THIEVES, BULL-SHITTERS, GREEDY BASTARDS, and so on (I could come up with some really stinky labels)…but, in the end, to DEPEND ON THESE CRITTERS to handle our world affairs and domestic policies is like pee-ing up a rope.
IT RUNS RIGHT ON DOWN all over us.
The people on this board will call it a golden shower, and are turgidly awaiting it.
This guy has just been lucky predicting the past elections. It’s ‘just-a-hunch’ prediction which in the 2024 election was based upon his obvious bias. His system is based upon 13 categories such as economy, immigration, abortion, defense, climate change, etc. Then he will analyze the candidate’s position on each category and give a checkmark if he feels that particular candidate has the lead on that one category.
Whomever comes up with the most checkmarks, gets Lichtman’s nod as the projected winner. There is no hard data whatsoever in his analysis. It is all based on his flawed intuition. Listening to him after the election, you could tell that he was extremely biased in Kamala’s favor and showed his disdain for Trump. He is a fraud.
Some of the most touted and revered prognosticators have gone down in flames since 2016…Nate Silver in 2016, and now Lichtman and Selzer in 2024. ELON MUSK is the cause of Lichtman’s error??? Get over yourself. You are a fraud. Time for you to move on to retirement.
Well said. Exactly.
It’s a lot like how Nate Silver came to fame for picking a bunch of senatorial races correctly (I forget which year). There really weren’t that many in question. Lots of people make predictions. Whoever happens to get it right gets retrospectively labeled a wizard.
Not really, because those 13 categories do hit some of the most important issues for the populace. The problem isn’t with the system he uses, it’s that he doesn’t apply it fairly, and with almost any system, if you start out by looking for a specific result, you can figure out a way to find it.
Exerpt from the Los Angelos Daily News on Oct 19th
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Score that FALSE. After the 2022 midterm elections Democrats held only 213 seats, fewer than the 235 they held after the 2018 midterms.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Joe Biden won without a contest after the party changed the rules to prevent anyone else from winning delegates. Then Biden was forced out, Harris grabbed the campaign funds, California delegates endorsed her on a conference call and all challengers were blocked. That sounds contested to me. I’ll call this key FALSE.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. That’s now FALSE.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Newly independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is still on the ballot in some states, including California, although he has suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West are not polling at significant numbers. This key is TRUE.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. While the National Bureau of Economic Research has not officially declared the U.S. to be in a recession, public sentiment may say otherwise. The NBC News poll released this month asked registered voters whether “the Biden administration policies are helping you and your family, hurting you and your family, or are they not making much of a difference either way?” The results: 45% “hurting,” 25% “helping.” In the same poll, 44% said the Trump administration’s policies “helped” their family while only 31% said they “hurt.” But it’s not an official recession, so let’s call this key TRUE.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. “Real per capita” means the economic growth percentage is adjusted for inflation and population. According to data from the UN, real per capita economic growth in the U.S. during the Biden administration was 5.5% in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022 for a two-year average of 3.5%. Between 2017 and 2020, the Trump administration put up growth numbers of 1.7, 2.2, 1.8 and -2.7 (the pandemic shutdown year), an average of 0.75%. During Barack Obama’s second term, 2013-2016, real per capita economic growth was 1.2, 1.7, 2.1 and 1.0, for an average of 1.5%. Because Biden’s first year in office coincided with a burst of economic growth as the nation went from lockdown-zero back to something more normal, this key is TRUE, and the score is tied at three.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Biden immediately reversed the nation’s energy and border policies, so this is TRUE.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. We’ve seen protest encampments on college campuses, marches on freeways, takeovers of intersections, robberies that look like riots and parents raging at school board members. Two out of every three families hide the carving knives at Thanksgiving and the third calls off the dinner. I’m scoring this FALSE. The score is four to four.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Investigations by three House committees found that the Biden family collected many millions of dollars from foreign entities for no work. Also, a special counsel investigated Biden for illegally taking boxes of classified material with him after his vice presidency but declined to bring charges because no jury would convict “an elderly man with a poor memory.” Fawning media coverage painted over the taint, so score this one TRUE.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. The catastrophic Afghanistan pullout alone makes this key false. Tied at five.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Can you think of one? I’d say this key is FALSE. That’s six, enough to lose the White House.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Kamala Harris? FALSE.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. The American Heritage Dictionary says charisma is “a rare personal quality attributed to leaders who arouse fervent popular devotion and enthusiasm.” And he starred in a hit TV show for 14 years. This key is FALSE.
The author of the article knowingly marked 3 keys that I personally disagree with, (short and long term economy, and no major scandal) because the official narrative is that our economy is strong and they covered up any possible scandal as best they could. So I would say the assessment is pretty fair, all things considered.
All in all, the 13 keys indicated a solid victory for Trump. 10/11 for a system isn’t bad, and the one that it didn’t call is still disputed to this day. (Bush vs. Gore)
Lichtman is a click baiting fame whore. Why anyone would listen to him is beyond me.
But he says he has “the keys”
The Hunchhack of Gotchafame “the keys! the keys! Esmerelda!”
Robert Barnes said that Lichtman’s keys still have validity but that Lichtman himself mischaracterized current reality.
No primary contest
Strong short-term economy
No scandal
No foreign or military failure
He put these all as pro-democrat. All of them arguably should have been against the dems. The fact that the media buried the kickback schemes (“10% to the Big Guy”) doesn’t mean the public didn’t pick up on them.
Excellent article Mish, and you hit the Fool’s on their collective heads! The group think of madness, is madness on display. Call it TDR, Group Think, Ignorance, Moronic, etc. and it still all leads to the same outcome, “Delusion” and “Emotional Instability” which we All can clearly see on Display now!
Characterize everyone as something they are not, but you want others to think and see them as. It’s called “Projection” and it’s exactly what the Democrat practiced with hysteria for nearly 4 years now (40 years in all, at this point I would guess).
Here is an example of the definition of “Projecting”: If someone continuously bullies and ridicules a peer about his insecurities, the Bully might be projecting his/her own struggle with self-esteem onto the other person.
Sounds rather familiar, to everyone that has been paying attention over the past 4 Years!
Projection = Democrat Strategy 2024
These Guys have no idea what they are talking about . . . They just get lucky from time to time and and think they have created some system of predicting the outcome. Complete Baloney . . .
What all the Polls could not pick up is the Silent Majority of Trump Voters who simply were not telling anybody who they were going to vote for . . .
The heads of the most accurate pollsters – Atlas Intel, Rasmussen & Trafalgar – all said a week or so before the election that they suspected their polls still under- represented those silent Trump voters.
I tell you what is not misinformation. He made a laughing stock out of himself and is making the laughter louder by refusing to take a good ribbing which he absolutely deserves:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl0-tQyRd5A&t=24s
The denial is amazing to observe. The free market has created an alternate media ecosystem to inform the citizenry and get the truth out to the masses. Truth that regime media exists and works hard to always conceal from voters. And the Deep State has worked tirelessly to censor. Regime media is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Hopefully, the censorship apparatus between big media and deep state apparatchiks is dismantled entirely.