Retail sales rose 0.4 percent in December. Adjusted for Inflation, sales rose 0.1 percent.
According to the Census Department Advance Estimate, retail sales rose 0.4 percent in October.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $729.2 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from December 2023. Total sales for the 12 months of 2024 were up 3.0 percent from 2023.
Total sales for the October 2024 through December 2024 period were up 3.7 percent from the same period a year ago. The October 2024 to November 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 0.8 percent.
The key line above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.” These are nominal sales, not adjusted for inflation.
Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change
Nominal Retail Sales Percent Change
- Total: 0.4 Percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles: 0.4 Percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.3 Percent
- Motor Vehicles: 0.7 percent
- Food Stores: 0.8 percent
- Nonstore Sales: 0.2 percent
Note that cars are counted as “sales” when they are shipped from the manufacturer to the dealer, not when a consumer actually buys a car.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change
Adjusted for inflation, retail sales are up 1.0 percent from a year ago.
Real Retail Sales Detail Millions of Dollars
In April of 2021, real sales were $233,440 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. They are now $229,533 million, down 1.7 percent.
In nominal terms, sales rose from $622,705 million in April of 2021 to $729,191 million, an increase of 17 percent.
The chart and numbers above put a needed perspective on the allegedly strong consumer.
CPI Jumps 0.4 Percent in December
Yesterday, I commented CPI Jumps 0.4 Percent in December, Markets Giddy Anyway
Also see Strong Upward Pressure on the Cost of Food, What’s in Your Basket?
The price pressures on food explain the increase in nominal food stores sales of 0.8 percent.
Real retail sales appeared to have increased 9.25% under Biden. What about under Trump? Obama? Bush?
Me thinks that it is worst than just 1% y/o/y sales gain. It is more likely negative sales growth. Retail except except for high -end has lost markup ability.
If one were to shop at Kroger, purchase home, car & health insurance, go out for entertainment at a concert, comedy club, sporting event, travel to see friends and/or relatives, service your car, pay utilities, buy clothes for the kids, support their extra curricular activities, provide an allowance, incidentals and emergencies for the family it is more than 3% inflation.
This is a failing economy by definition when only 10% are successful due to financialization of it and the country exports services, oil &gas and war armaments in the main, is except for FICA, dependent on the wealthy, banksters, competitor nation states, hedge funds and central banks to fund its debt, and has also alienated most of the world’s population.
Notice in the chart below real retail sales have tended to increase every year that isn’t a recession? Except that they flattened a year or 2 before the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Sort of like now.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRSFS/
Mish, how does this mirage jibe with the new GDPNow forecast that was increased today to 3.0% real 4th quarter growth estimate (from 2.7% previous) specifically from this retail sales report?
I realize advance retail sales are for the month of December and not for the entire fourth quarter. But the GDPNow report today says that its nowcast for real 4th quarter personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.3% to 3.7% after today’s retail sales report. That would seem to be a ton of nominal growth combined with some substantial real consumption growth
Could the discrepancy be that you are discounting with CPI which currently (and in the recent past) had a higher inflationary component of rent and housing than basic CPI? So if you discounted with a goods (or retail sales) CPI, the real retail sales would be higher and match the jobs and real GDP increases we have seen elsewhere
What December giveth, January taketh away.
I agree with that assessment but we will see.
These numbers are so weak that real PER CAPITA retail sales are actually down.
excellent point
They spent more and bought less.
I just finished my grocery shopping list. I noticed that a large selection of junk food was on sale. Not much healthy food was.
So is that from the weight loss drugs or are people tapped out enough to cut out the chips even during playoff season?
As I pondered my new low-carb, low-processing diet in the supermarket these past few weeks, I realized that shopping has gotten a lot simpler since 80% of the shelf space is high-carb and/or highly-processed junk, and thus irrelevant to my needs.
And as some of our favorite commenters here are overly fond of pointing out, I’m not alone. The U.S. population is steadily getting older on average. And the older one gets beyond 40 or so, the less one can eat, and the more one avoids high-carb junk food if they want to live to see their grandkids and great-grandkids growing up.
Check out the weekly grocery store ad’s mailed to you. They always discount junk food. I hardly eat that crap. Got back from Costco today. Chocolate covered almonds that used to be 10.99-11.99 and I thought recently 13.99 are now 18.99!!! Unless Trump gets fiscally serious, the dollar is going to lose more value and those almonds will be 25.99 or more! Somehow, the Einstein’s in finance can’t get it into their stupid heads that if I’m only getting 1 dollar raise for 2 years that I’m totally losing to inflation. We literally need 3-5 dollar raises per year to keep up with the inflation in everything. Fools!
Healthy food is already way cheaper than junk food, if it was on sale it would be practically free considering the benefit it gives. 40oz. of oats at walmart is $4, dry rice and beans super cheap. Many fruits and vegetables are cheap like papaya, pinepple, bananas, grapefruit, some apples, cabbage, carrots, potatoes, roma tomatoes, onion. Whats expensive is when people are too lazy to do minimal meal prep.
Which is why people are buying government debt for the last few days or is that actually the Fed that is buying? It really doesn’t matter though because the Fed is going to cut by 25 on the 29th as will the BoC. The Fed could care less about inflation and actually, if truth be told, probably wants more of it.
About a 2 percent chance the Fed cuts in January. Seriously.
March is only 30% or so.
Trump’s Proposed Tariff Against Canada Would Implode The U.S. Auto Industry
I wonder if President Trump knows that Canada is the largest buyer of auto parts built in the United Statehttps://jalopnik.com/trumps-proposed-tariff-against-canada-would-implode-the-1851740659
It’s payback for Justin Bieber.
If you happen to listen to confirmation hearing(currently going on) for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent you will understand where the focus will be on.
The Plan is to rebuild US Middle Class along with boosting Rural America.
He has stated Wall Street has done well and now it is time for middle America to do well.
Rebuilding middle Class entails ending up with people in better financial conditions to make purchases such as Auto’s.
He very much is in favor of Fair Trade which includes Tariff’s as a tool to facilitate that objective. This in response to questions from Vermont Senator Peter Welch as to impact on Vermont economy which is reliant on Trade with Canada.
He does not support CBDC and says that is for countries that do not have alternative places to put money into. Not applicable to US.
He also said Five largest banks are too big and growth must come from local community Banks which means focus is on Small Business and Community Banks.
You guys are so earnestly credulous. It’s adorable!
Trump is an oligarch.
Talk is cheap.
Policy, executive orders, signing legislation, presidential actions, etc., define a presidency, not what they or their nominee in front of a confirmation hearing discuss.
Trump throws red meat to the base. He relies almost exclusively on emotion. He does not plan. His one accomplishment was an oligarchic act of reducing taxes for his class..
“Ponder and deliberate before you make a move.”
Sun Tzu
He’s my little oligarch, but I’m driving. I let him toot the horn sometimes when he’s upset.
Musk Rat is a tool. The real power is Peter Thiel. He has CIA, DOD, influence, a president in waiting that he has bankrolled, etc. Musk does what he is told or they find someone else to do their bidding.
Those in the shadows with the security state, , political and economic power are the power behind the throne. Thiel made Musk.
As if Biden has not been a “Tool” for the Deep State, right? That is how Washington operates. Did you seriously think a man with end stage dementia has been running the show?
Dialogue was about oligarchs, plutocrats not kleptocrats.
Of coarse, you are not even Elon Musk.
Were you around when the election occurred?
You are confused as to which was the candidate of Oligarchy, Control and Authoritarianism.
The Populist candidate who ran on a Populist platform was also supported by the people and their small donations.
It was not Donald John Trump blowing thru a Billion dollars during his campaign.
You also should include that Epstein estate was oked by Biden administration to swell 145 millions to Beneficiaries and not to those damaged by Epstein.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/business/jeffrey-epstein-estate-tax-refund.html
Guess that is alright as it’s for a good cause and Dems can put another item in rear view mirror.
Bill Clinton amongst others are certainly happy campers
Gonna be interesting if Durbin questions Kash Patel about Q annon. He might not like the answers he gets. He went fishing during Bondi testimony.
“Curiouser and curiouser” said Alice.
Epstein Island was frequented by Trump.
Keep drinking that kool-aid.
I don’t know about any of that, but I do know that the low low price of $275 million, I have my own little president on a short leash. He even lets me live at Mar-a-Lago… No, I am not exaggerating. Look it up! Did George Soros get to live at Biden‘s house? I think not!
Trump is a joke. He can market. He can’t run a business much less the US otherwise he wouldn’t have filed for bankruptcy 3, 4 or more times and totally mismanaged the economy as well as Covid. He left Biden with a turd in the punch bowl.
Those that support him or acolytes are cultists or are opportunists. What a following. Those that voted for him that are not of the aforementioned ilk did so to flip the bird at the establishment or are grasping at at straws in the hope that they don’t they don’t get the short end one again. And the last time I checked HOPE is not a plan.
Trump can’t run anything huh.
His nominees are absolutely chewing up all Dem Senators one after another.
The best Dems have and they are fleas.
Biden was the Manchurian candidate. The Dems are bought off. They are whores. Biden should be in the dock for his corruption with China, Russia and Ukraine as well as the genocide in Palestine or Gaza and the West Bank.
The nominees of Trump are there as shills or frontmen or women for the most part for Wall Street, Big Oil, Big Ag, Big Pharma, the FIRE sectors, MIC, BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, etc.
Follow the money.
Corruption is the oxygen of the political class. Money is the means of that corruption furnished by the economic elites.
When the people realize that they have the real power through boycotts, strikes, resistance, work slowdowns, shutdowns, general strikes then things will change but not before the oligarchs try to crush it.
They will unleash police riots.
The empire will fully come home to roost instead of just visiting through immiseration, grade D infrastructure, the worst healthcare outcomes of any advanced economy, etc., with tanks, goon squads, mass arrests, suspension of habeas corpus, censorship, martial law, etc.
The wealthy aggressively advocate for their interests. Their time honored method is divide and conquer. They are winning the class war, temporarily.
All part of the plan… a leased Tesla in every rented garage!
“YOU will own nothing and” (sotto voce: “we will”) “be happy.”
Bwaaaahahahahaha!
And you cannot exceed 3000 miles per year or maximum 21,000 in 7 years.
Sucha deal!!!
When I get them back they’ll form my robotaxi fleet, and then nobody will need a car anymore! One less thing to worry about for the serfs. Golden Age, baybeee!