Advance retail sales rose 0.4 percent with September revised from 0.4 percent to 0.8 percent.
According to the Census Department Advance Estimate, retail sales rose 0.4 percent in October.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023.
Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).
The key line above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.” These are nominal sales, not adjusted for inflation.
Month-Over-Month Nominal Details
- Retail Sales: +0.4%
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gasoline: +0.1%
- Motor Vehicles: +1.6%
- Food Stores: +0.1%
- Nonstore Merchants (e.g. Amazon): +0.3%
- Gas Stations: +0.1%
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
Inflation-adjusted sales put things in proper perspective.
However, the last two months are undoubtedly hot. This puts another spotlight on Fed rate cuts.
CPI Rises 0.2 Percent But Another Hot Month for Shelter
November 13: CPI Rises 0.2 Percent But Another Hot Month for Shelter
The Fed will have a tough go of things if there is lack of progress on the cost of shelter.
November 14: Producer Price Index (PPI) Increases 0.2 Percent, With Services Up 0.3 Percent
PPI service prices, which the Fed is more concerned about, are not headed in the right direction.
Neither the CPI nor the PPI reports should inspire confidence in a mass of rate cuts by the Fed.
Also see Rate Cut Odds Plunge as Powell Signals Willingness to Move Slower
Powell cites a solid economy and will cut rates at a slower pace “carefully”.
Don’t be surprised if the Fed starts signaling no cut in December. Any additional strong data might do that.
The monthly data is mostly noise. The long term graph of real (inflation) adjusted retail sales is most useful. It pretty clearly shows essentially flat real retail sales for the last 3 1/2 years. There is no hint of excessive demand here.
Sales appear to be up because they are counted in money. Inflated money.
We’re in a recession. Lol!
Did you find that extra magic money supply down the back of the sofa to support your notion of “inflation” and “interest rate rises”? Where is it Mish? We’re all waiting.
What is surprising is that you are not questioning their stats. It has all been BS across the board for years. Keynesians are fools or liars, maybe both.
Why believe that? This last year has probably been the best economy of my lifetime (62 years). Everybody I know has a job and been getting good pay raises, so I would expect spending to be up. I understand the economy hasn’t been that hot in flyover country, but flyover’s been hollowing out for decades. Great place to buy a home and raise a family though, as long as you can work from home.
Doesn’t this just simply say it all?
– “Advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for October 2024, Saw an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023.”
– “Advance estimates of U.S. food services sales for October 2024, Saw an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023.”
For a Total of: $718.9 billion!!!
Hmm… 20M X $600,000.00 ($50,000.00 per Month) – Cost of Retail and Food Service Sales = A Total of? To be Added To Existing numbers, as these are new and additional add-ons… for How Much? The numbers are getting awfully big for some (20M) reason, and Tax-Payers are getting awfully poorer, as they pay more for some reason, so it seems sort of distorted… Perhaps because “It Is”?
What’s really and truly changed in “Per Person Expenses” over the last 4 Years? 20M with no clothes, food, house, schooling, medical, dental, I can go on and on… Would this ALL add “Positively” to the Numbers, but “Negatively” to the “Reality” of Most Americans everyday Life? Someone’s Paying and one party has no income, but Taxation, but the rest have Money, and no representation, Hmm…
Any debasement already happened, funded by debt; it was not inflation funded by credit expansion – which is precisely what inflation requires. Synthetic scarcity created by policy created price rises, and masked the truth of global debt, demographics, and deflation.
The Joe Biden juggernaut economy will come to an end soon enough. You get what you vote for……bwahahahaaha.
Maybe you can dump some more ballots
GOP has FULL CONTROL now, no excuses, they are going to own it 100%!
So you support his appointments then? He should get his people. No excuses
Profits over politics.
Sounds like an excuse
Get on the treadmill. Rfk is coming
Like Burisma Biden profits? Or Pelosi warmongering insider traing profits?
So was Obama wrong then, about what Trump inherited?
Is Trump still “inheriting” from Biden, or is it only when the numbers go up?
Also juggernaut is funny. 72 percent of people of the people felt we were on the wrong track. That’s why he got elected. No revisionist history please. People hate this economy. Hate.
Interestingly, 81% of people thought that they themselves were doing fine, but 72% thought the country was on the wrong track. Fascinating what the media can do.
a juggernaut of debt and illegal immigrants.
The Fed stopped raising rates at least 50 BP too early. Now, the Fed is pushing down the 6MT, so Congress can keep borrowing costs lower. They have nearly taken their eye off inflation.
Maxxing out the credit cards before declaring bankruptcy.
Maybe the bond market and economy will whipsaw fast enough that the general public loses confidence in the FED.
The general public has no idea what the Fed is or even if it exists.
The blunt instrument of FED interest rates not only doesn’t work it inflicts pain on every economic agent. The 50% Discount/Rebate policy at retail sale however rewards both individuals and enterprise while mathematically ending infltion. Why aren’t you libertarians on to these facts? Perhaps the unwillingness/inability to see beyond your own worn out orthodoxies. The FED, as your own orthodoxies proclaim is the hand maiden and bail bondsman for the banks. So implement the single policy/paradigm change of the 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale by mandating that the FED distribute the rebate aspect of the policy instead and have it actually fulfill its mandate of controling inflation and lowering unemployment.
Hyper inflation inflates nominal retail sales. The number of widgets sold is decreasing because the general public is short of cash. The public is suffering because of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Currency debasement and inflation are not the same thing.
Credit is contracting and has been for a while, so it can’t be inflation.
Pushing up prices with sanctions, netzero, and debasing currency with debt will do it.
One last hurrah for the consumer.
Everyone knows it and feels it.
Fundamentals eventually do come into play.
One more rate cut and the yield curve will no longer be inverted. The long end may even shoot higher. The “Bond Vigilantes” are back in town.
The bond vigilantes are in their wheelchairs, gasping for oxygen. This clown show has been on for so long, and not and end in sight.
The scary thing is, most of the political class believe the system is fixed, and have a room to splurge.
it uninverted a month or two ago.
Should these be adjusted for inflation?
Priorities for the second Trump administrationNow comes the hard part for Trump and the Republicans…https://frompovertytoprogress.substack.com/p/priorities-for-the-second-trump-administration
No more rate cuts. The long bond has spoken
Nonsense, the dollar has crushed everything. You really wanna hear wailing from foreigners, just talk about raising the rate.
Perhaps not yet if Fed intend to follow market.
USD/JPY trade started to unwind today. Myself I thought that the bounce off its lows 09/16/2024 was a counter trend move.
Everyone and their brother in law got back in Long to play yield differential.
Indicative of prelude to a possible risk off event and appears to be topping.
10 Year other then deficit spending by central Gov. not much to keep rates high. Although Debtors prison people have gotten themselves into means borrowing just to stay in same place will continue.
Euro is unable to sustain short term rally against USD which also supports notion markets starting to go risk off.
Yet all around the world, rate cuts abound…