Realistically speaking, this is just a start of a bear market. Here are some more charts to ponder.
S&P 500 Nears Bear Market
Dow Nears Bear Market
Nasdaq 100 Index in Bear Market
Russell 2000 in Bear Market
Apple Bear Market
Crude Bear Market
Nothing Magic
There is nothing magic about 20% declines. It’s simply the most widely used definition of a bear market.
Bear markets seldom stop at 20% then magically reverse.
Expect worse, much worse.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
What’s “much worse”, and over what time frame? What will be much worse over long period of time are pensions, global cooling, increasing taxes, govt oppression, and civil unrest.
Stocks, not so much, and 2 months max.
Since you are using charts to bolster gloom and doom, maybe you should be fair and post some longer term charts too? We are actually closer to support levels than to the peaks, 5-15% depending what you are looking at. Is that “much, much worse”? Probably not in most peoples books.
Fair point … until you look at fundamentals, like umm, egregious equity valuations, business cycle on its last legs and money supply growth in decline for more than a year now.
But be my guest and pile on.
Fundamentals and technicals work until they dont. What are valuations of stocks when the bond bubble pops?
What goes up, goes down. What goes down, goes up. Over time.
Look at XAU vs. the Nasdaq in 2000-2001. Basically a perfect inverse correlation.
Hiking rates into horrifically high unemployment? Good lord, the Fed is stupid.
Unemployment isn’t high for anyone but the useless.
If unemployment were actually low, there’d be wage inflation. There is no meaningful wage inflation.
That is absolutely untrue. I work in STEM. I’m over 50, change jobs every couple years, and I am making more money than ever. I get several emails from recruiters every day, as do my coworkers, from recruiters in our industry, and for industries that aren’t even closely related to what we do. I’m not particularly smart, or even all that good at what I do, compared to some, but hiring managers still bend over backward every time I decide to switch jobs. My career has been a steady climb since the early 90’s, when I got out of the pseudo-STEM IT business. As computers systems got better, the requirements to be an IT monkey at any but the highest levels basically evaporated. It’s an easy, low skill job now.
We have multiple engineering positions we’ve had open for over a year because we simply can’t fill them… and we offer a good salary, unlimited vacation, catered lunch every day, cadillac insurance, and treat engineers like gold.
But don’t listen to me… here’s something you can bleat fake news about:
Are there people with STEM degrees that can’t find work? Of course, and they fall into one or both of the following categories: Hasn’t kept up or never really acquired the skills to do the job, or too socially broken to work in a cooperative environment… and when interviewing, we will let a lot pass on the latter, if the can do the job.
So the original assertion stands. The people that are employed at this point in history are, for the most part, useless.
Again, look at wage inflation — practically non-existent. Look at the employment stats out of the Universities in STEM — many decent schools like Cornell and UC Berkeley can only substantiate 1/3rd of their grads finding post-grad employment. The employment situation is absolutely and utterly abysmal for STEM and tech employees generally. And it set to get a lot worse as the current bubble collapses.
After all, you have an audience here. And you claim that you can’t find engineers….. Put your money where your mouth is, and maybe I’ll take your comments seriously. Good engineers are tired of being ignored by employers, especially when they claim there’s a ‘shortage’.
Not true? Well I’ll admit that my decades of anecdotal evidence is flimsy, but what about this?
And this:
And this:
What is really going on here? Do we inhabit different universes? When you watch old Star Trek, does Spock have a beard? There are a lot of people like you that just don’t seem to be in this universe. Has the internet gone trans-dimensional?
Mish, have you looked into the Mark Skidmore/Catherine Austin Fitts story of the “missing” 21 trillion at the Pentagon?
Mish do you still like Goldmoney? How about MENE?
“Much worse” how? Great Depression-like in losses & duration? Fortunately, history shows Bear Markets are not only short-lived, but also few & far between.
Wow, that’s a misleading chart. To look at it, you’d think that if you were in the market between 1966 and 1982 you made a lot. Since that chart doesn’t account for inflation, the reality is that between 1966 and 1982, if you were in the market, you lost about 70% of your real worth.
Carl is right. The 70s were a bear market because the real value of your portfolio would have crashed.
Interesting how gold bottomed shortly before the peak in the Nasdaq. That is an awful lot of wisdom from a barbarous relic!
Trumpletantantrum – I like that – Did you coin that or pick it up somewhere?
Another Trumpletantrum, another 2%.
That is just plain silly.