Here are some Tweets I bookmarked this week for discussion.
Thoughts on Inventories
Silly Idea About Gold
Rebuttal on Gold
Trump is RINO
I have made the same comment.
Reflections on Hybrids
Too Broke Even for Walmart
Jim Chanos Calls it Quits
Hedge Fund Mega-Cap Tech Positioning
All of Humanity is Now Dead
Oops that didn’t happen so I better delete the Tweet. On closer inspection, the top climate scientist did not say we would be dead by now, just that it would be too late.
Mercy, it’s too late now. So Gretta needed to delete that Tweet because it her irrelevant.
Watching “Life on our planet” on Netflix. It is narrated by Morgan Freeman and done by the guy that did Jurassic Park. Just got through the third mass extinction which sets up the dinosaurs for their ascendary to Numero Uno. I can hardly wait to see what happens to them.
“Interesting video on the latest state of play on Precious Metal manipulation and why there might be less than 35 trading days until gold revaluation”
Doesn’t gold revaluation occur every market day?
I’m very disappointed in Daniella DeMartino Booth. She’s a supporter of the neocon, “We need Israel more than Israel needs us”, kleptocrat, Nikki Halley. Makes me question her judgement in other areas. As to Trump, he is not a conservative or a right winger, he’s a 1980s style, Democrat. Just goes to show you how far the Overton window has shifted.
Anyone who is from/in the Acela Corridor is like a fish not knowing it’s swimming in water (or s- ), no matter what they call themselves politically. Kunstler and RFK jr two recent examples.
The little girl did remind us of something … when public commentators start making predictions, they start revealing just how little they know, when over and over they turn out to be publicly wrong on so many things … Jim Rickards was an expert, till he started making predictions and being wrong on inflation, elections, etc. Predictions are for fools.
People make predictions for one reason only: They want something.
Some just want attention, but most want money, specifically your (yours, mine etc) money for some cause/reason. The prediction is meant to draw attention to and spur you into giving money to support or prevent the prediction of which they inevitably grift.
So if people who make predictions rake in a lot of cash, are they in fact fools or simply successful con men/women?
I make predictions because it’s just fun. A lot of fun. It’s especially fun to hit something dead on, or to miss spectacularly.
Also, the process of making a prediction is a great way to learn about the world.
So, “want something”? Yep. To get a good laugh or to discover something.
You can make valid predictions about human nature, and collective intelligence of human populations, though. /s
Point #1
I have stated many times here that plug-in hybrids currently make more sense than full EVs.
Using roughly the same amount of battery materials you can produce one EV with a range of 400 miles or ten plug-in hybrids, each with a 40 mile range. The 10 hybrids would run on the battery for over 90% of all trips, resulting in much lower emissions compared to one EV and nine ICE vehicles which run on gasoline 100% of the time.
In addition, with a plug-in hybrid you eliminate range anxiety associated with a full EV.
Point #2
As ICE vehicles are slowly replaced with EVs and plug-in hybrids over the next few decades, it will reduce demand for gasoline, and put downward pressure on gasoline prices. Every 42 gallon barrel of oil is refined into roughly 20 gallons of gasoline, 12 gallons of diesel, and a variety of other products. This is not easily changed. Since we will still be using diesel and all the other products, we will continue to increase gasoline production into a marketplace that needs less of it. So even if you prefer ICE vehicles or don’t like EVs, you should cheer EV and hybrid sales as they will lower the price of gasoline for you over time.
Point #3
It is becoming increasingly clear that the world is incapable of reducing our use of fossil fuels anytime soon. After spending $5 trillion over several decades on renewable energy, the world cannot even meet the annual increase in energy demand. Which is why we are using MORE fossil fuels each year, not less. Which is why I remain heavily invested in oil and gas stocks.
Point #4
Global warming and the resulting climate change is only going to continue to get worse as time goes by. Since it is becoming clear that we cannot reduce global emissions anytime soon, we should be preparing for a more challenging future. More extreme temperatures, weather, drought, rainfall, floods, fires, etc. We are going to have to build everything to higher standards to enhance resilience.
Since we can’t seem to slow or stop global warming, we will have to spend more on mitigation.
Cheers!
“PHEVs are not the answer.” For now, oh yes they are!!!
Let’s see what the 2023 Prius’ 1st-year numbers are. My bet it will have very strong sales.
And most importantly, you list three opinions without any data to back up what you’re saying. China, sure. The US not so much going forward.
Hi David
1. Correct. PHEVs are not the answer to global warming. Similarly, EVs are not the answer to global warming. They are both a tiny and rather insignificant piece of an overall solution. A solution that will continue to elude us as global warming continues unabated. After all, road transportation accounts for just 14% of global emissions. And it will take decades to replace all the ICE vehicles out there.
2. I appreciate your optimism on EV sales. EVs are slowly replacing ICE vehicles. It just won’t happen as fast as you hope. In the first six months of 2023 EV (4.27m) and PHEV (1.76m) deliveries totalled 6 million, which accounted for 14.1% of light vehicle sales worldwide. The remaining 86% (36m) were ICE. There are currently over 1.5 billion light vehicles in the world. Even if EVERY new vehicle sold was an EV, it would take 20 years to replace the current fleet. And I suggest that it will be difficult for EVs to achieve even 50% of all sales before 2030.
It is going to take even longer to replace the diesel transportation fleet.
Regarding refineries. We may not be building new refineries in the US, but they are being built elsewhere.
Because the world needs the 10-12 gallons of other products they refine in addition to gasoline and diesel. Demand for oil has increased by 2.4 mbpd to 102 mbpd in 2023. And it will increase again next year to 103 mbpd. And every one of those barrels will be refined. And every refined barrel will produce 19-20 gallons of gasoline. You cannot have one without the other.
Based on “your” optimistic scenario for EV sales, that will result in a worldwide glut of gasoline, and eventually diesel. An over supply of any commodity will result in lower prices.
3. I agree with your comment. The question will be “when”.
The reality is the PHEV’s are a major part of getting us towards a BEV future. The 2023 Prius Prime will drive 44 miles on a charge. For a significant # of cars on the road, this would be at least one day or driving and could be as many as 3 days for others.
And as you well know, charging is the biggest obstacle to BEV adoption. The ’23 Prime battery is 13.6 kwh, meaning it can easily be charged at almost any home with a 120v outlet that everyone has.
As I’ve said many times before, the car that really needed to be expanded for another 10 years or so was the Chevy Volt. If GM put an Ultium-based battery in the Volt at about 20 kwh, it probably would approach a 65-mile range which would be phenomenal for all sorts of driving needs with ZERO range anxiety. I read about people going over 900 miles on a 9-gallon tank of gas. And, GM could have optimized the ICE further, using a 3-cylindar engine, for example. They could have improved the 53-kwh generator.
Another big hinderance, IMHO, for BEV is oversizing the electric motor which leads to a need to oversize the battery, forcing the vehicle price to rise. Today, GM could make a Honda Fit like car that was sold internationally as a BEV. It had, I believe, a 20-kwh battery and got over 175 miles on one charge. They put a 200 hp motor in the Bolt when a 130 hp motor, like the Fit, would have been fine. This would have allowed them to downsize the battery to probably less than 40 kwh for the 65 it ships with.
And a major issue going forward will be cost. With these huge pay raises the UAW workers are getting, the cost to produce any type of car will continue to rise dramatically. Solid state batteries are still 5 years out from being commercially available, at scale and cost competitive with Li batteries.
In the US, the road ahead for BEVs is very rocky, unless Congress lets China start importing low-cost BEVs which may happen. GM has intentionally chosen the expensive vehicle route to-date to maximize profits.
I for one want to see them go bankrupt for killing the Volt. It was absolutely the WORST decision the company has made since the Saturn brand.
Toyota is the only company I would consider purchasing stock in right now.
Point 1 is spot on, but so many are hyped up by EV’s they fail to see or understand the complexity in them. We are decades away from full implementation, due to infrastructure cost and battery manufacturing issues, just to name a couple of the bigger issues. Hybrids are the answer to both issues, and will eventually take over for a short term option over the next couple decades, or people will simply stay with ICE Vehicles.
Point 2 is spot on, as Hybrids and eventually EV’s start putting a true dent in the purchase of ICE Vehicles, gas prices will definitely come down. We will have the capability Worldwide to produce way more Gas than will be needed, and then massive underground storage will become the next phase IMO.
Point 3 is spot on, as Gas/Oil is the cheapest abundant form of energy at the moment, and has been forever. The World will not stop producing either anytime soon, or it would devastate many existing Countries energy dependent requirements.
Point 4 unfortunately is a hoax in the way it is being bantered about. Climate Change is a scam the way it is being used currently. They are pulling financing for it, from other places it is actually needed. Humans can’t stop the temperature of the earth from changing, and the seas from rising to falling… Humans are not God. Some try to play God, due to massive Ego’s and inferiority complexes, but that won’t move the needle more than perhaps 1 degree up or down over the next 100 years, as it hasn’t moved the needle overall since we thought we knew how to tell… There are Countless Examples of the World Ending, Freezing, Boiling, Darkened, ETC… AND ALL NEVER HAPPENED…
Point 5 We Do Not Have To Spend Money On Mitigation as nothing since human existing has changed that humans can prove has changed, or can prove how to stop the unproven change, so we can stop playing God anytime now…
Hi Stu. Thanks for your reply and agreement on points 1-3.
Regarding your response to point 4.
A hoax? Interesting. That would make it the most elaborate hoax in history.
A hoax perpetrated by tens of thousands of scientists, and published in over 88,000 peer reviewed papers.
A hoax that has resulted in 195 of the world’s countries signing on to a climate accord, and making pledges to try to solve the problem.
A hoax that has the majority of the world’s major corporations pledging to enact climate policies (including banks and insurance companies).
That makes this hoax bigger than the one that has convinced us that the world is a sphere, when the truly enlightened know that it’s flat.
Just like talking to a flat-earth believer, I doubt that anything I say will change your opinion on this.
And, you do not need to try to change “my” opinion Stu. Because I am irrelevant to this argument.
What you need to do is convince the tens of thousands of scientists, the leaders of 195 countries and the executives of all those corporations that it’s all a hoax. Until then, I will base my investment ideas on what they are doing, not on your opinion.
Thanks again.
It’s mathematically impossible for mankind’s 3% annual contribution to the annual CO2 levels, to affect, alter or change the Global weather patterns. What’s greatly affecting our weather patterns, is the explosive growth of underwater Volcanoes in the last 30yrs, heating up or warming our Oceans…The Green Revolution is now called the “Green Vomit” All the Trillions that has been wasted, on Windmills, Solar, and EVs has been proven to be completely unviable.
Believe what you want. You are wasting your time trying to convince me.
As I stated earlier:
What you need to do is convince the tens of thousands of scientists, the leaders of 195 countries and the executives of all those corporations that it’s all a hoax. Until then, I will base my investment ideas on what they are doing, not on your opinion.
Good luck with that.
It turned out that Sweden made the right decision, ignoring the leaders and public health agencies of the multitude of countries which criticized them for not locking down during Covid.
Bill Gates admitted recently that the temperate zone isn’t going to become uninhabitable because of climate change. Corporations buy carbon credits so they can continue to pump carbon, instead of cutting their footprint. And as usual, the elitists continue to pump carbon as they please, while virtue signalling that pumping carbon is dangerous for the environment.
Sources please! You don’t get to say climate change is 97% the result of increased volcanic activity, which I’m sure it’s having an impact, but not provide data. To act like mankind isn’t having a dramatic impact on climate change is just beyond reasonable. It is the only thing going on? Probably not, but I really need a “reputable” citation for this 3% claim.
And remember, we’re in the middle a Milinkovich cycle that says we’re supposed be seeing a very slow cooling of the climate over thousands of years. Oh wait! What changed? To name a few: agriculture, deforestation, & burning of fossil fuels.
The real answer is well beyond any of here on MishTalk. But, let’s not turn a blind eye to what mankind is doing to the planet. The big question is how do we get on the backside of this? And I’m far from a climate alarmist. More of a realist to be exact.
Hi Tom. There are no sources. Not from credible scientists who actually study ocean volcanoes. It’s all garbage, lies and FUD. And its targeted at those morons who “want” to believe that mankind is not responsible for the current warming.
If they were told that warming was the result of billions of mermaids farting in the oceans, they would believe that too. You can’t fix stupid.
Best to ignore them and focus on improving your life.
Good comment papa dave. we will not be able to meet emission for various reasons. The world will get warmer. Imo The effects will be more frequent disasters / failing crops/ resulting in starvation ,people migration/ social unrest /rising prices for food water and shelter/ wars. All resulting in shorter life spans for all. which get worse conditions decline. .
Sad but true. In the meantime, I will continue to focus on the things I can actually affect; my family, friends, health and wealth. Because I can’t do anything significant about global warming and climate change. Other than accept it.
….no space left in the barn for more barrels ?
Well, if nothing else, Greta and her band of useful idiots will continue to make us all pay regardless of her Idiocracy.
Gold/silver has been in a continuous pump and dump cycle all year. It will likely continue to go up this week until there is some sort of news that restrengthen is the dollar. The Fed controls gold prices as much as KFC controls the fried chicken market.
True but it would take something big to persuade me to buy dollars