Astute readers will immediately notice the title of this post makes no sense. It’s not supposed to. But it is exactly what President Biden is doing. 
Biden to Quadruple Tariffs on Chinese EVs
Counter to the idea that quick EV adoption is needed to save the planet from a climate disaster, please note Biden to Quadruple Tariffs on Chinese EVs
The Biden administration is preparing to raise tariffs on clean-energy goods from China in the coming days, with the levy on Chinese electric vehicles set to roughly quadruple, according to people familiar with the matter.
Higher tariffs, which Biden administration officials are preparing to announce on Tuesday, will also hit critical minerals, solar goods and batteries sourced from China, according to the people. The decision comes at the end of a yearslong review of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump on roughly $300 billion in goods from China.
Officials are particularly focused on electric vehicles, and they are expected to raise the tariff rate to roughly 100% from 25%, according to the people. An additional 2.5% duty applies to all automobiles imported into the U.S. The existing 25% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles has so far effectively barred those models, often cheaper than Western-made cars, from the U.S. market. Biden administration officials, automakers and some lawmakers worry that wouldn’t be enough given the scale of Chinese manufacturing.
Conflicting Goals
We need EVs so badly that we also need a 100% tariff to stop them. That makes no sense but it is the precise message.
Stated differently, we don’t want EVs unless people are willing to pay 100% more for them. And this is despite the claim that the world as we know it will end in 12 years if we don’t act on them.
World Will End in 12 Years
Recall AOC’s shocking revelation World Will End in 12 Years if we don’t act on climate change. That was in 2019.
There are only five years left to save the world, but here we are upping the price of cheap EVs by 100%, ensuring imported EVs cannot possibly be cheap.
This is what happens when you have two massively conflicting goals, both of which are individually ridiculous.
Price of the New Green Deal
A think-tank led by a former Congressional Budget Office director has come up with a price of the New Green Deal.
Note that the cost of AOC’s New Green Deal is $51 to $93 Trillion vs. the Cost of Doing Nothing
Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree in Climate Change
For a complete synopsis of how deranged the climate madness is, please see Investigating the Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree in Climate Change Since 1850
Notably, even if by some miracle we follow the proposed guidelines, the current best estimate is temperatures will rise anyway until 2100 by 1.4 degrees anyway.
There’s a mere 0.4 degrees difference from a very radical effort to cut emissions to 0 by 2050 to a much more modest goal.
the European electric vehicle market – the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge are inundated.”
China Produces 55 Percent of All Steel, Biden and Trump Eye Tariffs
China produces nearly 80% more than the next nine biggest steel producers, which are, in order, India, Japan, the US, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Brazil and Iran.
On May 5, I noted China Produces 55 Percent of All Steel, Biden and Trump Eye Tariffs
Is China Dumping Steel?
Let’s define dumping as exporting steel at a cost lower than the cost to produce it.
I would prefer to have a definitive answer with percentages, but let’s assume China is dumping steel.
Who are the Beneficiaries of Dumping?
- The entire construction industry, especially home builders and road construction.
- The US auto industry and machinery producers.
- Ultimately, US consumers win. Everything made with steel costs less to produce and those costs are inevitably passed on to consumers.
Who Are the Losers?
- 83,600 US Steel Workers
- Chinese consumers
Ultimately, Chinese consumers pay a price by subsidizing US consumers who benefit. Yet, we complain.
Neither President Biden nor Trump understands the above simple truth.
Belgium’s Ports Drowning Under Glut of Chinese EVs
‘Some are parked here for a year, sometimes more.’
On May 6, my Hoot of the Day was Belgium’s Ports Drowning Under Glut of Chinese EVs
Le Monde moaned “Due to China’s overcapacity in production – as it aims to capture a quarter of
Reflections on Overcapacity
Dictionary defines overcapacity as “the situation in which an industry or factory cannot sell as much as it can produce.”
Merriam-Webster defines overcapacity as “excessive capacity for production or services in relation to demand.”
Many complain that China is producing more cars and steel that it can use. Think about that for a second.
If no country produced more goods than it could use, foreign trade would drop to zero.
That appears to be the misguided goal (result if you prefer) of policy actions by Biden and Trump.
Everyone wants to be a net exporter, but that’s mathematically impossible. It’s also impossible if no country produced more goods than it could use.
And finally, exports are impossible if countries jack up tariffs to the extent that foreign trade is impossible.
I foresee a huge global trade war with immensely negative consequences. Looking ahead, that is #1 idea for 2025 no matter who wins the election.
Mish,
I know the point you are trying to make, but after 30 years of maximalist positioning on both sides of the international trade debate, propping up straw man versions of the opponent’s points serves no one and leaves the country worse off.
Of course you are right about the winners/losers of tariffs.
But in the 90’s we were also promised that free trade absolutism/de-industrialization would off-shore all those dirty, low paid jobs that actually manufactured utilitarian goods and the freed Americans could all go on to become highly demanded brain surgeons, cutting edge biotechnologists, flying car salesmen, and warp drive engineers.
30 years of reality got us “Wasting Away in Barista-ville” and double shifts in the Amazon GigaWarehouse.
So some reasonable middle-path thinking might be in order.
In general, the tariffs are a very, very blunt tool to preserve some hope for the domestic development/survival of certain technologies/industries..
There may be much better ways of accomplishing the same end – but *then promote those alternatives* – simply misrepresenting the goals of the tariff proponents is no longer a winner.
(Subsidized R&D/archiving/model plant building involving various industries where the US is otherwise getting its ass kicked? Maybe better than industry-hammock-building tariffs…but then make that specific case. Ignoring the goals of opponents persuades few, addressing those goals in a better way, persuades many).
Tariffs have a ton of negative consequences.
But 30 years of alternative policy choices have also had a ton of negative (and still seemingly pretty insoluble) consequences.
The “free market”, “free trade”, mantra was always self serving legerdemain. Anyone who still peddles that Social Darwinist happy talk should be laughed to scorn.
BYD outcompetes Tesla. Hypocritical U.S. just put a 100%!!! Tariff on BYD EVs!
Tony Seba, ReThinkX: By 2030 no one will want an ICE car. (Probably more like 2027 now)
On the S-Curve of adoption, the Detroit Dinosaur 3 are headed to the tar pit.
Next year the question will be: Do you want a smart car or a dumb car?
Tesla & the Chinese automakers that adopt FSD, will be the only ones making smart cars.
The new state of the art temp
Network installed across the US , USCRN, future proved to stop urban tainting of data , illustrates no warning in the US since it’s launch in 2005 .
In Africa , the hottest continent , the population will double by 2050 . Africa is home to 6 of the top
Ten fastest growing economies in the world – some climate change we are having !!
Nope.
Even if your statement was true (it isn’t true), you are referring to temperature readings from just a small portion of the earth’s total surface, so it would not disprove “global” warming (if it was true).
But your statement isn’t true. Not even close. The reality is that this system has indeed measured a warming of 0.86F per decade since it was initialized in 2005. Which is actually “more” warming than an equivalent NOAA system which measured warming of 0.64F per decade.
That’s the problem when you get your info from cult conspiracy sources. They simply make sh*t up.
I find it quite comical at times, when our Politicians talk “Climate Change” They seem to act as if only our country does something, and does something very fast and very expensive, then we will all cease to exist in a few short years.
It’s as if China and India don’t exist in our World? So as a result, they discount all that they and many, many other countries spew into all of our atmosphere.
Just that one example spews more than we could dream of on our worst of worst days, it’s like one single cow fart in China and India for comparison. We can do all we want, and beg, make, coerce, the UK to go along, but it changes it to 1 1/2 Cow Farts at most. In other words, it’s insane without the World behind it, and it is not by a long shot…
All true. But countries like China and India look at global warming very differently. They realize that the US has been the worst offender for the last 70 years, as we rapidly industrialized and used fossil fuels to raise our standard of living dramatically. We have already been using the atmosphere as our sewer for the last 7 decades while they have just started. We were the major contributor to CO2 levels increasing from 315 to 425 in that time frame. Not them. We were the ones who raised our living standards at the expense of the atmosphere. Not them.
And now we are trying to tell them not to do what we did for those 7 decades. They are responding with: “Don’t tell us to reduce our emissions after you used the atmosphere as your personal toilet for all those years. Yes, we will do our part, but you need to be the leader here and start to clean up the mess that you left for us.
Citizens of China and India, many of whom do not own a refrigerator, air conditioner, or car, look at American living standards with both envy and disgust. Envy because they want what we have; disgust because we are telling them you can’t have this; it’s not good for the environment.
China, in particular is leading by example. In 2022 they added 87GW of solar. In 2023 they added 217 GW of solar. In comparison the US has installed a “total” of 175 GW of solar since we started in 1973. China added more solar energy in 2023 than we added in 50 years. Wind numbers are the similar. China added 77 GW of wind in 2023 to reach a total wind capacity of 440 GW. In the US our total wind capacity is 141 GW.
Yes, China still uses a lot of coal and is currently the biggest emitter of CO2 in the world. But with their rapid acceleration of wind and solar, 2024 will be the turning point for them. Expect 2024 to be the peak of China’s coal consumption. By the end of 2024 or early 2025, China’s coal consumption will begin decline. Simply because they continue to add so much wind and solar.
And this will continue. Because more renewables will make China less dependent on coal imports, and will lead to them becoming the lowest cost energy country in the world. Which will give them another economic advantage in their desire to out compete the US and everyone else.
Renewable Energy and reliability go hand in hand. When it hasn’t been achieved yet, the loudest doubters are trumpeting fear with all their might. Totally paniced about the future. The future is now here, and we can have it all. Cheaper, cleaner electricity that is better for living on earth.
.newsfromthestates
article/some-parts-us-grid-future-might-be-closer-you-think
A little more than two years ago, a clean energy record was broken. For the first time, a regional transmission organization met more than 90% of its electric demand, called load, with renewable power.
But if you don’t follow the electric industry closely, you might be surprised where it happened.
On March 29, 2022, Southwest Power Pool, based in Little Rock, Arkansas, and the grid operator for a red-state heavy portion of the central U.S., hit a renewable penetration level of 90.2%, almost all of it from wind power.
“In a decade’s time, our region has gone from thinking of 25% renewable-penetration levels as nearly unreachable to a point where we regularly exceed 75% without reliability concerns,” said Bruce Rew, SPP’s vice president of operations, in a news release.
Growing electric demand, major coal plant closures and more wind and solar power have been seen by some policymakers, regulators and clean power critics as harbingers of a coming electric reliability crisis.
We are making progress in electricity but it is insignificant when electricity is only 20% of the total energy we consume.
Are you keeping in mind how inefficient FFs are? You will use less energy overall with heat pumps and EVs over FFs. ICE vehicles are only 20% inefficient and heat pumps are 2 to 4 times more efficient than natural gas. We will use more electricity in future, but not in a one part FF to one part electricty ratio.
Irrelevant. The fact is that we are using MORE fossil fuels every year, because we cannot build enough renewables each year to satisfy our continued growing demand for more energy.
In addition, modern society cannot function without massive amounts of steel, concrete, plastics and fertilizer; all of which can only be produced at scale with fossil fuels.
It appears the Chinese have learned how to make better cars than us cheaper. There are ways to compete and a tarrif gives our manufacturers time to come up with a plan of how to do business in this environment. Again this brings to mind when the Japanese cars hit our market in the 70s and 80s. The American big 4 then did take a hit.
/thinc
/2024/05/11/are-us-carmakers-toast-chinas-evs-sleek-well-made-and-cheap/
Kevin Williams
@GaytonaUSA
I went to China, drove more than a dozen EVs, and sat in dozens more. Had a lot of conversations, learned a lot of things.
One thing’s for sure — we’re absolutely cooked, and it’s probably our fault. China’s EVs are better.
Wall Street Journal:
The Biden administration is preparing to raise tariffs on clean-energy goods from China in the coming days, with the levy on Chinese electric vehicles set to roughly quadruple, according to people familiar with the matter.
Higher tariffs, which Biden administration officials are preparing to announce on Tuesday, will also hit critical minerals, solar goods and batteries sourced from China, according to the people. The decision comes at the end of a yearslong review of tarrifs imposed by former President Donald Trump on roughly $300 billion in goods from China.
Officials are particularly focused on electric vehicles, and they are expected to raise the tariff rate to roughly 100% from 25%, according to the people. An additional 2.5% duty applies to all automobiles imported into the U.S. The existing 25% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles has so far effectively barred those models, often cheaper than Western-made cars, from the U.S. market. Biden administration officials, automakers and some lawmakers worry that wouldn’t be enough given the scale of Chinese manufacturing.
“We need EVs so badly that we also need a 100% tariff to stop them. That makes no sense but it is the precise message.”
Not sure why it seems so hard to comprehend the very simple and obvious matter that junta support for BEVs always were, and still all are, solely due to lobbied upand connected US manufacturer “owners” no longer being able compete at building real cars. That’s it. All of it.
That has always been why “Biden”, as well as anyone else in DC (complete yahoos of the AOC kind possibly partially excepted), championed BEVs.
Since BEVs almost invariably sucked at being cars, dollar for dollar: Competent carmakers never really bothered. Leaving an opening for connected, lobbied up, charlatan near-do-wells to “make money” the American Way: By collecting direct subsidies, as well as indirect ones coming by way of all the retarded people The Fed has enriched with unearned loot, being a near endless pool of free money for politically favored hucksters, charlatans and just regular simpletons too dumb to know any better.
There is no other there, there. Handing other people’s money to connected middlebrows too incompetent to compete at anything real, is all BEVs, “Self driving”, “AI” and all the rest has ever been.
It’s not really that hard.
The Chinese need to be on the lookout for Blinkin, CIA and MI-6 and the rest of the midnight Nordstream Team touring their big river dams.
EV sales have already peaked. Anyone who wants one and can afford it already has one. The Chinese will retaliate by withholding other products the US needs. (Medication, precious metals, etc)
WHEN OIL GO’S TO $150 OVER THE NEXT 2 YEARS THE LIE IS EXPOSED
What lie? And why All Caps?
Oil can go to $150, but it won’t stay there as those prices crush demand.
Maybe China will make the decision (after we buy them all), to not sell EV Batteries to the U.S. any longer. Wouldn’t that be awesome! As we would have lots of unusable EV’s with no batteries. Which means we would have lots of people with zero transportation.
Nice plan Joey Baby…
Chinese automakers are setting up assembly plants in Mexico to dodge these.
Every tariff on Chinese solar has been dodged by similar tactics. I’m not sure why Biden or Trump think they are good at trade wars.
The Disrupt Tesla Group has found a way to get rid of EVs, or at least Teslas but strangely not German or Chinese EVs.
The German EV’s are depreciating so badly they won’t be in the market much longer.
You can go and buy a Chinese EV for less than the amount of the depreciated value.
That is…. If your in a country where EV’s such as the BYD’s are allowed.
Whole lot of genius here at Mish.
If only I had half the intelligence…
I might ponder that if the ptb, government was truly concerned global climate change, redundant, I know…..
Said government would tax trillion Aires
Give climate friendly electric vehicles away.
Help me…
Did Einstein say intelligence has a limit
Stupidity was infinite
Anyway, if you are for sleepy jo-blow
Or the orange turd then good luck
Me and myself and I
Family hanging on for dear life…
All about keeping our heads down, carrying on
Conquering ignorance.
Kicking the life out of those who are against.. .
World peace..
Lol
Fighting to keep our jobs here is a good thing to a point. China is just a very tough competitor that is also looking to make its mark on the world with power. So far they are doing a good job at it. When it comes to saving thousands of dollars, I am willing to buy from our foreign competitors if it is a good product. I am not comfortable with how China is playing its cards in the world on some issues. I don’t know at what point I am willing to boycott China when things get pretty deep.
It reminds of American businesses that sold scrap steel to the Japanese before they bombed pearl harbor. They made a big stink to get in that last sale at the beginning of the embargo. Some of that steel killed our men.
Jeff – have you sold your coal powered contraptions? What price did you get?
EV’s are about to go extinct hahaha…. when the punters get wind of the massive deprecation involved when selling these useless junk heaps… demand will crash to ZERO.
ZERO Jeff. You can still find a sucker if you list them for sale NOW.
Demand for electric cars has dried up and it’s time for a rethink, says billionaire founder and Chairman of chemicals giant INEOS, Sir Jim Ratcliffe. Writing in the Telegraph, he says the “notion of a quick transition away from petrol was always barmy”. Here’s an excerpt.
You know what’s fun about buying used EVs. Someone else took the hit on it and I get a good deal. I have never paid new for my EVs. Been driving electric for 8 years now and loving it.
Wow… it’s worse than I thought.
I guess you have not realized that buying a used EV is the worst decision anyone can make. Cuz as the battery degrades and the warranty expiration approaches… nobody will buy the used EV because the cost of a new battery is tens of thousands of dollars.
That is exactly what we are seeing happen now.
I suppose you might find a mentally retarded person who is unable to perform the simple math involved to buy it….
The EV reality isn’t what you think it is. An electric motor just outperforms an ICE vehicle easily in economics. Batteries have only minor degradation over time. 200,000 miles on an EV is easily acheivable. 300,000 miles can be the norm.
Mish has done a fantastic job explaining the economics… and an EV is significantly more expensive to purchase – maintain – and repair.
As for 300,000 miles — hahahahahahaha… in DelusiSTAN.
Have you noticed that EV sales are collapsing … Tesla laid off 20% of their work force… other manufacturers are killing off EV lines completely
Why do you think that is Jeff????
I like your comments. You won’t find much reason or fact here but don’t get dismayed.
Some historians cite the embargo on Japan as the reason they attacked Pearl Harbor. When incompetent populist politicians recommend tariffs, it’s because they want to remain in power. Don’t be deluded in thinking they are doing it for the benefit of the USA. These trade wars lead to hot wars, but again this will please the politicians money masters also.
There is the interest of the nation and then the interest of an individual business. China has a very large juggernaut of a manufacturing engine that we are dependent on. President Trump started the distrust of China and Biden isn’t really tamping it down. China is working against some of our world wide interests and we just may not have a lot of influence on them.
Seems I got spammed by the bot here. Rephrasing things to get around the bot.
Last year 2023 was 1.35*C (from NOAA) above preindustrial average temperature. That statement of 1.4*C by 2100 drew my attention to its very low number. According to what I am reading, we are behind the 8 ball of getting converted over to clean energy. We will be lucky to stay under 2*C by 2100.
Climate by the numbers
Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 2.12 degrees F (1.18 degrees C) above the 20th century — the highest global temperature among all years in NOAA’s 1850-2023 climate record. It also beats the next warmest year, 2016, by a record-setting margin of 0.27 of a degree F (0.15 of a degree C).
The 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade. In fact, the average global temperature for 2023 exceeded the pre-industrial (1850–1900) average by 2.43 degrees F (1.35 degrees C).
Looking ahead, there is a one-in-three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance that 2024 will rank among the top five warmest years.
All true. And it is going to get a lot worse.
And yet there are no mass die offs of humanity and people around the world are living better than ever.
Imagine in 1850 you told people that in 150 years the climate would get 1.35C warmer. Do you think they’d have freaked out about climate change and it being the end of the world? Fast forward to today and the 1.35C has not ended the world. Another 1.4C in 80 years is not going to end the world either.
Nothing today that we do is going to change the fact that it’s going to continue to get warmer for decades if not centuries because the population is going to continue to grow which means more demand for everything including energy.
Humanity (all life really) will adapt to it and as usual there will be winners (some species, some areas of the world) and losers (some species, some areas of the world). The only constant is change.
If you want to really worry about something, forget CO2, and start thinking about things like micro plastics. Life has adapted to CO2 and the cycle between plants and animals requires it. But micro plastics are something new entirely and no one knows what affects (if any) there will be from their rise in the ecosystems.
It’s not about mass die offs (yet). It’s about the impact that climate change will have on economies and what those costs will be.
Yes, we as humans will be forced to adapt. And we will. At great cost. But other life forms aren’t as flexible and resilient as us. Birds, mammal,
fish, and insect populations are already being decimated.
I don’t disagree with your 1st paragraph, but most animals are able to adapt to changes in climate. The ones that can’t die off or simply become a new species as has happened countless times over the eons when Earth’s climate has lurched from warm to cold and back again. This is especially true for very specialized species.
I would agrue that the decimation you speak of in relation to animals has more to do with habitat loss and pollution by man than climate change itself.
All true. Except that animals can better adapt when change happens slowly over tens of thousands of years, which is how most natural change has happened over earth’s history. Because of man, in 200 years, we have forced the equivalent of 10,000 years of climate change. Animals cannot readily adapt to that. It is too fast.
I agree that the decimation of other life forms is not just from man made climate change, but also from man’s incursion into their habitat, pollution, etc etc. Either way, it is man causing their demise. And if we keep decimating other life forms on the planet, it ultimately effects us as well.
Yet there are folks here who insist that mankind cannot affect earth’s ecosystems..
It will be bad for the economy, for sure. I would expect to get several more decades of service out of my 1962 Bastion-Morley gas-hot water boiler and not have to replace it anytime soon.
As you are well aware and as Mish has stated many times, the government can pay people to wave towels to cool the air and that’s counted as GDP. In other words, they can juice the economy by paying people to clean up pollution, wave towels to cool the planet etc. The economy is the last thing I am worried about.
Now, productive use of resources (including technology advances) is another matter entirely. But don’t worry about finding things for people to do. That can always be done.
Why would I be worried?
Governments are the biggest effect on economies. The Covid lockdowns, communist vs capitalist governmments. Mandating $20 an hour for fast food workers apparently cost 9,500 of those jobs in California. The Great Depression wasn’t caused by climate.
Many things affect the economy. Climate change is just one of the newer add-ons. And since it will keep getting worse, its economic impact will keep getting worse.
It seems this is a strong doubting community here about global warming. Nevertheless the rest of the world is on track to produce large amounts of renewable energy today and more down the road.
From Bloomberg
Renewable Sources Provided Record 30% of Electricity Last Year
The share of global electricity from renewables rose to a record 30% last year as the growth of wind and solar power continued to far exceed that of fossil fuels.
That trend is set to accelerate this year, according to data from energy think-tank Ember. The group expects clean-power growth to more than make up for the overall rise in electricity demand, leading fossil fuel-derived generation to drop 2% in 2024.
While gas and coal generation — the latter driven by a drought-induced decline in hydropower — also increased last year, Ember forecasts that trend to end this year.
“The decline of power-sector emissions is now inevitable,” said Dave Jones, Ember’s director of global insights. “But the pace of emissions falls depends on how fast the renewables revolution continues.”
The truth really is that if the USA emitted 0 green house gas if would only make a minuscule difference like <5% in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions.
True. It will require all countries to reduce emissions. China is the top emitter and the US is #2.
Fortunately, China is also the leader in building both nuclear and renewable energy. They build more each year than the rest of the world combined. And they have become so good at it that they can export a lot of solar, windmill and EV at low cost. So we put big tariffs on it! LOL!
This year, 2024 should be peak coal for China. Their coal consumption will fall from this point forward. A small win.
Has there been any calculations including the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate ? I believe those eruptions lower climate locally and or worldwide if severe enough. I know that if yellowstone blows, it is the largest caldera in the world, it will have devastating impacts in the US but also worldwide. It goes off about every 500k years and the last one was 500k years ago. But no worries about 2 years ago while in the park I was told they were “closely monitoring this” and there was no indication of an eruption coming.
Yes. Scientists take everything into account in their models. Volcanic eruptions cause short term cooling from their release of particulates, but longer term warming due to their release of CO2. The particulates fall out of the atmosphere over periods of weeks to a few months. Really large eruptions can take years. But the CO2 takes 300 to 1000 years to be removed from the atmosphere.
A Yellowstone eruption would be a large one and kill a lot of people within 50 miles, and cause some cooling for perhaps a year or two. Long term would be more warming.
I second that opinion. Keep busting myths.
Correct. Many here are cult idiots who will doubt global warming till the day they die, just like flat earthers.
You and I (and some others here) are well aware of global warming and its impacts.
Where you and I differ, is in mankind’s capacity to slow or stop it. You are an optimist and I am a realist.
Yes, every year, we build more renewables and increase their share of electricity generation; renewables are now 30% of all electricity. This is up 10% since 2010, when renewables represented 20% of electricity generation.
This is all well and good, but insignificant. Because electricity itself represents just 20% of all energy used. The other 80% is from fossil fuels.
So now renewables represent 30% of that 20%,or 6% of all our energy used, an increase of 2% in those 14 years.
And in spite of the trillions spent so far to achieve that 2% increase, we are using MORE fossil fuels every year, because our demand for energy keeps growing.
Yes, more renewables is good. And after several more decades and many more trillions spent, perhaps they will approach 100% of our electricity needs. But electricity is still just 20% of all our energy. That number will also slowly creep up. Electricity represented 17% of all energy in 2010 and is now just over 20% in 2024. Perhaps it will get to 22% by 2030 and 25% by 2040.
There are four items that modern society requires that we cannot currently live without; steel, cement, plastic, and fertilizer. Those four things can only be made at scale using fossil fuels. It will be very difficult to reduce fossil fuel use below 75% until we can find another way to produce those four items.
So we can keep building renewables. Just don’t expect them to make any noticeable difference to our emissions, and thus, global warming, in this century. Global warming is going to get much worse.
Got oil?
I’m good with global warming as long as the women on the beach are as fit as 50 years ago.
“-80°C: Antarctic Vostok Station Records “Extreme Winter Cold”…Not Even Winter Yet!” “The record, -89.3°C, was recorded in the middle of winter, on July 21, 1983”
“An increase in overnight low temperatures is a clear indicator of an increased Urban Heat Island effect (UHI). Florida’s population has doubled from about 10 million in 1990 to over 20 million now. This more than doubling of the state’s population is reflected clearly in UHI data compiled by Dr. Roy Spencer as seen in the graph below. Note the huge temperature effects for Florida’s rapidly growing coastal cities.”
Someone else already asked about the effect of roads, and cities in retaining heat and their contribution to global warming. I explained it to them.
First; the earth’s surface is 70% ocean and 30 % land. The oceans retain 90% of the additional heat while land retains just 10%.
The roads and cities represent just 0.15% of the land. So even if roads and cities retain twice as much heat as other land, thats accounts for just 0.3% of 10%, or 0.03% of the heat. Insignificant.
You efforts to find some other reason for warming is futile. After 200 years of scientific investigation, all possible reasons have been thoroughly investigated. You are not going to find something that scientists don’t already know.
It’s not cities. It’s not the sun. It’s not volcanoes. And so on. Scientists know that it’s man’s emissions of greenhouse gasses.
You are still as clueless as ever. Individual data like that are meaningless. What counts are trends and aggregates.
There are far more record highs recorded each year than record lows. For the entire planet, and for Antarctica in particular. The same goes for average annual global temperatures.
As long as we keep pumping out GHGs the trend is still more warming and more record highs than record lows.
This makes perfect sense.
If the country is flooded with really cheap EVs and drivers adopt (buy) them, in 2, 5 and 10 years when it hasn’t done a bit of good for the environment, the grift is over.
If you consider that the goal is to keep the grift alive, everything becomes clear.
12 years seems like a long time. Feels like the world is headed towards anarchy. Humans won’t survive long enough for climate change to affect them as badly as they effect each other.
The earth is just about to be whacked by a substantial CME emitted by the sun. According to NOAA the consequences of this will be relatively minor. The predicted Big One will arrive well before the so called effects of Climate Change will be realised.
“According to NOAA…”
NOAA is no longer credible. Quoting them doesn’t lend any validity to your comment. Quite the opposite. Might as well have said, “According to my crystal ball.”
Not many in May 1914 knew what was coming in 3 months, either.
US labour cost alone 5X more expensive than China.
US is not competitive.
That’s the problem with politicians. They try to be all things to all people. Which results in this kind of thing. People here complain about Biden, but Trump won’t be any different.
In fact Trump stated he wants a further 60% tariff on China, so I imagine that Biden is just trying to out-trump Trump.
Personally, I would prefer less tariffs and other trade barriers. But I have no say in it, so I invest based on what the reality is. Since we will be unable to build out enough renewables to replace fossil fuels, we will continue to use more fossil fuels every year. Which is why I remain heavily invested in oil companies.
Regarding the cost to slow the progression of global warming; yes, it is prohibitive. Which is why there is so little progress being made. So global warming will keep getting worse and the cost to our economy will keep growing. It is almost impossible to accurately calculate what those costs will be, as Mish pointed out recently. But they will certainly keep increasing as time goes by. At some point, the cost of inaction will exceed the cost of action. No one knows when that point will be realized, or if it has already been passed.
Mish recently asked if there was an optimal global average temperature for GDP growth and he concluded that there wasn’t one. He was wrong.
Just like there is an optimal temperature for the human body, there is an optimal global temperature for the life forms that exist on the planet. For the life forms today (particularly mankind), that optimal temperature is in the range of 13.5 to 14.5 C. Which would also be the optimal temperature for GDP growth. I gave my reasoning for thisb in the earlier article so I won’t repeat it here.
However, since we have already exceeded that range, we are already impacting GDP growth. And as average temperatures keep rising, it will further impact GDP growth. But then, so will tariff policies like this.
Fortunately, regardless of the restrictions on GDP growth, the demand for more energy will continue each year and we will continue to use more fossil fuels. Which is behind my investment rationale.
Got oil?
Major Major is in, so you have to wait to see him. Ah, Major Major has gone out so you can go in and see him now … Wait … DoD needs super batteries requiring huge tech development for their sharks with lasers (robotic dogs, soldiers, drones etc.) so the Consumer is hypnotized into footing the bill on the sly by buying EVs.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/09/the-liberal-international-order-is-slowly-coming-apart
Economist dives a little deeper on this.
Nations are engaged in subsidy-based trade wars and we’ve intentionally hamstrung the watchdogs.
There are not foul enough words to describe them or their lineages. Trump and Biden are both on the same team on this subject.
We get to ride deglobalization to hell with either of them.
Jobs? Any of you remember having one of those?
I had a real job from 1993 until 2023, but now I’m a Fed.
Thank you for contributing to my grift.
Dementia Joe cannot decide what flavor ice cream for today. All high level White House decisions are made by Jill Biden and Kamala Harris. Two half wits do not make a whole.
We all joke about this and the liberals just laugh it off. Our country is a laughing stock all over the world, but hey, “Free Palestine”
So _ucking sick of this shit
A Civil War is coming people, not because I want it , because it may be the only way that the American people have a say in how their country is run
Jill and Kamala aren’t Biden handlers. Jill just wants the power/perks and Kamala is there for her race and gender.
Jill and Kamala have handlers
Kamala isn’t “handable”. That’s a Democrat problem. If she’s President she will do whatever she wants. Democrat dilemma-Do they keep her on the ticket. Biden is bad but Kamala would be a lot worse. Jill also doesn’t have a handler. She lets them do what they want as long as she gets her perks.
It’s what Biden does:
He supports EV transition, then tariffs the crap out of them.
He supports Israel, then won’t release the weapons he promised them.
He claims to be fighting inflation, then passes inflationary policies.
Punish the Chinese and protect the autoworker unions. Climate Change? Nah, we just us that as a backdoor to regulate everything.
Climate change! is the war cry for the largest money and power grab in history.
Speculation:
0- Joe Biden and his team are incapable of noticing the contradiction.
1- Joe Biden, a Latter Day New Deal Democrat, thinks that he can order the American economy to produce EVs, despite a multitude of regulations and activist opposition that makes it impossible.
2- The Greens, many of them, aren’t bothered because they believe in degrowth, blackouts and people forced to cope without vehicles. That is the ultimate way to end the pollution that is damaging the climate and the planet.
Contemplate all the things that won’t be available in 8 years, and how you and I will cope with the situation.
Do you want really good prices and high quaility, then go Chinese. Basically we have to build in China to even compete with the main Chinese manufacturers.
Chinese make pet food that poisons dogs and cats.
Want lung cancer by the time you are 50 even if you don’t smoke? Keep the internal combustion engine? Want your employment limited to flipping hamburgers or stocking a grocery shelf? Buy foreign.
With their highly competitive labor market, China can make high quality cars at a lower price than we can. The same thing happened with Japan about 40 years ago. Toyota and Honda made higher quality cars than we did for a lower price. Question is, how long should we protect out fledling car makers before we drop the tarif? The Chinese also use to have tarifs on our goods to protect and build their industries up to become competitive today.
Without competition in the auto industry we would be still driving the same shit buckets the big 3 produced in the past. Current quality is just average btw. I have a new gmc suv and it’s been in about 5 times for repairs. A lot of it software however.
The Chinese diagonal cutters snapped right off at the hinge.
A culture of Minimum Acceptable Quality is not an aspirational dream unless you run a landfill.
Some things China builds is shit. And some is superior to our own goods. We are the consumers than vote with our dollars. How do you vote when American goods cost so much more. My wrenches that I have purchased lately aren’t made in America. They are good wrenches for less that will last me the rest of my life for what I need them for.
Normally I’m an anti Jeff But what you say is correct here. The Chinese can make a very good product. But much of that product is made using stolen IP.
I’m from Australia and there’s a lot of Chinese vehicles sold here both ICE and EV. They’re generally cheap and the quality isn’t the best but there’s an army of Chinese Engineers scrutinising the problems and continually improving the products.
Remember when Japanese and Korean vehicles were first introduced to the western market? They were Crap….. Look at them now.
If I only wanted friendly conversations, I wouldn’t be in this site. When I converse listening to the counter arguments, it refines how I want to present myself. Sometimes I give talks on RE and the changes along with our society, your points of view are even brought up by my liberal friends. I am much more friendly and calmer than I am on here. Thank you for your comment.