I like watching Bitcoin because I have no idea what it will do and the volatility is breathtaking.
I have also been gathering a number of Bitcoin Tweets over the past few months regarding pontifications by people who have no clue where it’s going, but they make forecasts anyway.
When Bitcoin fell to $12,000 from $19,000 a couple weeks back then rebounded to $16,000 the true believers were out in force.
One said the bottom was in. Another quickly predicted $26,000.
People are picking numbers out of their ass.
Bitcoin Top In?
Poll
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Sounds to me like Blacklisted is picking numbers out of their ass. As a trader for three decades of options, stocks, futures, and metals, I would be very interested in knowing what method is being used for a $50K level EOY prediction. Anytime I hear anyone make a timing/level prediction I have a tendency to call bullcrap.
And every time Bitcoin corrects the naysayers come out and proclaim its death. That was way to hot too fast. But at least it’s a free market- unlike stocks which are only allowed to go up.
Which are the bits on currency that you disagree with and find incorrect?
@ Realist I think you mean to say “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Attributed to Niels Bohr, over fifty years ago.
So many times I hear this argument that ‘fiat currency has no intrinsic value’, that ‘fiat currency is not backed by anything’. This is plain wrong: all fiat currency has real value: It settles a tax obligation with the issuing government. An obligation that all economically active entities have. Furthermore if you are a bank (or other relevant financial institution) a fiat currency settles a reserve obligation at the issuer’s central bank. Both of these – taxes and reserve obligations – are enforced by law. Punishable by fines and/or prison time. That’s the underlying creator of demand for fiat currency. You can go off and do whatever you want in stocks, in USDs, in EURs, in bonds, in gold, in cryptocurrencies … but at the end of the year you owe the government tax and you can only pay it in their currencies. Governments are of course superslow to react, which is why believers misinterpret this current sense of freedom it enjoys. But no govt will ever surrender monopoly of the ccy. So crypto ccys will end up on the receiving end of regulation. In fact, it could end up being the most regulated asset in the world because since no sovereign owns it everyone can regulate it. Or looking at it another way Since it must be maintained on multiple servers in multiple locations these host countries could all individually & simultaneously regulate it.
” By March it should be obvious, and by June you will be kicking yourself.”
Please enlighten us in advance since you seem to know the unknowable.
@blacklisted just because Blockchain has value doesn’t mean Bitcoin or any crypto currency has value – that is following your own logic
Anyone that has followed Bitcoin for even a few of years knows that it has a handful of 30-40% pullbacks EVERY YEAR. Anywhere between 8000-10000 for Bitcoin is a good entry, as it will be at least 50,000 by the end of the year. However, there are MUCH better cryptos that provide more functional coins and higher value businesses. You won’t need to wait until the end of the year to see who is right. By March it should be obvious, and by June you will be kicking yourself.
Sechel, since the cryptos are bought with the actual currencies of countries, those currencies must also have no intrinsic value. Validating the blockchain and transactions has value. Facilitating the raising of capital to start new businesses has value. Disintermediating inefficient middlemen adds value. Just because many dot.coms went under did not mean the Internet did not have intrinsic value. Just because you don’t see it does not mean it doesn’t exist.
Since there is no way in hell I will ever sign up for twitter, not even to vote in Mish’s poll, I’ll record my vote here in the comments as “Down”. Interesting that the poll would not work on Chrome, but works fine on Firefox.
If it drops lower tomorrow all bets are off – the people on the fence will bail. If it gains tomorrow Doomsday will be delayed.
Warren Buffet’s hypothetical puts are in the money!