MSTR, a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, reports $12 billion loss.
Crypto’s Worst Day Since 2022 Crash
The Wall Street Journal reports Bitcoin Booster’s $12 Billion Loss Headlines Crypto’s Worst Day Since 2022 Crash
Bitcoin tumbled to $63,596.56 at 4 p.m. Eastern time, sliding 13% during its worst 24-hour trading period since June 2022. Minutes later, Michael Saylor’s Strategy said crypto’s late-2025 swoon had left the bitcoin-stockpiling company with a staggering paper loss in the fourth quarter.
Strategy’s fourth-quarter net loss widened to $12.4 billion, or $42.93 a share, from $670.8 million, or $3.03 per share, a year earlier. In the most-recent period, the company recorded an unrealized fair-value loss of $17.4 billion on its digital assets, complying with accounting rules that require companies to value their holdings at current market prices.
Saylor, who co-founded the software company formerly known as MicroStrategy MSTR has spent the past six years transforming his business into a storehouse of bitcoin. He has issued stock and debt to raise billions of dollars for his crypto-buying spree, and by Feb. 1 held 713,502 bitcoins. Dozens of other public companies followed Saylor’s lead, emboldened by a surge in crypto prices during the early months of the second Trump administration and the performance of Strategy’s shares.
The selloff in bitcoin gained steam this past week, when crypto exchanges sold trader assets automatically because the value of their collateral has dropped too low. The token traded at $62,955 as of late Thursday afternoon.
Bitcoin trades well below Strategy’s average purchase price of $76,052, and investors fear a further slide might eventually force the company to sell their holdings.
Saylor has long implored investors to never sell their bitcoins. But he rattled the crypto market late last year by suggesting that Strategy could in fact shed some tokens or bitcoin-backed derivatives if its mNAV, or its enterprise value divided by the value of its crypto holdings, were to drop below one. Early on Thursday, though, Saylor took to X, the social-media platform, to write: “HODL,” a reference to an inside joke that means: hold on to your bitcoin.
Strategy’s mNAV stood at about 1.1 as of Thursday evening. The company has continued to buy bitcoin in recent weeks.
When the so-called mNAV drops below one, it means the company trades at a discount to its crypto holdings and may have difficulty selling shares to buy tokens. And to buy back stock, it might have to sell tokens.
While Strategy is at the epicenter of the crypto selloff, the company itself faces no immediate consequences for bitcoin’s decline, analysts said.
The company has mostly relied on selling common and preferred shares to fund its bitcoin acquisitions. It has $8.2 billion in convertible, unsecured debt that matures between 2028 and 2032. Strategy has built up cash reserves of more than $2 billion to help ensure it can meet future dividend and debt-interest payments.
Patrick Horsman, chief investment officer at BNB Plus, said his firm, which stockpiles crypto exchange Binance’s BNB token, is looking to merge with similar companies to help weather the new crypto winter.
“It’s disappointing,” Horsman said of the drawdown. “I think everyone’s kind of beaten down a little.”
“We think there’s strength in scale, and there’s a number of digital-asset treasury firms that I think we could look to roll up together and be a bigger and stronger organization,” he said.
MSTR Daily
Don’t Worry Saylor Covered Until $8,000
The Melania Coin
I hear the movie is doing a bit better.
Bessent at a Loss for Words
Bitcoin Daily Ewave Count
If the above count or similar count is correct, this is just the beginning of the Bitcoin nightmare.
In general, impulse moves are in 5 waves and corrective moves in 3 waves. The cleanest look at 5 waves down is between the large 2 and the large 3.
Wave 3s, or sometimes wave 5s, tend to be the strongest.
If this is the top, this whole structure is just part of a bigger wave 1 down. (See lead chart). There will eventually be a bigger wave 2 correction up. That would be followed by wave 3 of 3 down.
This is just a what if, not a prediction. But it’s very plausible, technically and fundamentally.
Bitcoin Bounce Where?
The weekly support line was 75,000 and we smashed through that as expected.
The next support is a consolidation zone 50,000 to 55,000. Then it’s 40,000 followed by 25,000 and 15,000.
For those of you who do not believe in technical analysis, I offer this.
Incoherent Saylor Rants
“If people knew what I know Bitcoin would go to $10 million tomorrow.”
The next rant is even worse.
I disagree with that analysis. Bitcoin isn’t a Ponzi scheme. But it may go down in history as the biggest, longest lasting mania ever.
Financial Times – Every Option Is Bad
Bitcoin Bulls Beware! Jim Cramer Has Spoken
Jim Cramer is famously noted for being wrong on nearly ever call.
Another View
This Takes Talent
Saylor once thought Bitcoin was headed to zero. Then he got true religion and started buying at $11k. Now, he’s currently holding about 3.5 percent of all BTC.
But he’s underwater.
Legendary!
What About the Fundamentals?
Thanks. Glad you finally asked.
So here’s the issue you get influencers like this guy have a quarter million followers and they claim they don’t know why it is declining… it’s because they don’t understand basic mechanics of price discovery. They don’t understand that the marginal buyers or the float determines price they think the onchain bitcoin is that is the price discovery.
Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market.
This is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin. This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated. The original premise that no longer exists Bitcoin’s entire valuation logic was built on finite supply (21M) and inability to be rehypothecated.
That died the moment: •Cash-settled futures •Perpetual swaps •Options •ETFs •Prime broker lending •Wrapped BTC •Total return swaps were layered on top of the chain.
From that moment forward: Bitcoin supply became theoretically infinite. Not on-chain in price discovery.
The metric that explains the collapse Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR) Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce — and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market.
Why Wall Street can now “trade against” Bitcoin They do exactly what they’ve done in every commodity market: 1.Create unlimited paper BTC 2.Short into rallies 3.Force liquidations 4.Cover lower 5.Repeat They are not “betting” — they are manufacturing inventory. The same 1 BTC can now support: •An ETF unit •A futures contract •A perpetual swap •An options delta •A broker loan •A structured note All at once. That is six claims on one coin. That is not a market. That is a fractional reserve price system.
Even if paper bitcoin was not involved, at some point whales were bound to sell. The energy to mine is not unlimited. Someone would want to cash out.
The ETFs, even unlevered, were the final straw. Expecting those who got in late to HODL is now a proven flawed idea.
Ten Key Points
- The bitcoin “Store of Value” trade has fundamentally broken in two. Unlike gold, which is mined with energy, but then remains “gold” regardless of how much mining energy is expended, bitcoin requires continual energy expenditure to maintain the bitcoin network.
- Maintaining a digital ledger requires a constant injection of ordered energy.
- The miners are currently doing the same amount of work for 27% less revenue. They have billions in sunk capex, and as long as bitcoin remains above the marginal cash cost of mining (~$85K), they will keep mining. This, in itself, is nothing new. It has always been the case that mining has periods of unprofitability.
- The difference this time is that bitcoin miners are no longer using “surplus” energy.
- AI datacenters pay 3-4x the revenue per kilowatt as bitcoin mining — and the miners are switching.
- Another “halving” in 2028 will reduce revenue per hash by 50% unless the bitcoin price increases by 100%.
- The “Passive Bid” Has Diminished. For two years, the ETF complex provided a mindless, price-agnostic bid for bitcoin. That tap has slowed radically, and now bitcoin must find a new untapped bid.
- Absent endogenous cash flows (e.g. earnings, transaction fee share, dividends), bitcoin has no stabilizing feedback loop—only reflexive ones. Further declines do not summon value buyers; they merely test the resilience of belief.
- Bitcoin requires a massive, continuous calorie burn (electricity) just to prevent the network from collapsing. As energy prices rise (thanks to AI and the exhaustion of the 2010s surplus), the cost to maintain your “digital gold” rises.
- Gold is chemically inert. It sits in a vault. Its maintenance cost is effectively zero and largely unaffected by existing value.
After preaching for years about scarcity, the Bitcoin crowd cheered ETFs then 2x ETFs and -2x ETF. We have futures and options on futures.
Saylor borrowed billions of dollars to buy Bitcoin. Much of the Bitcoin crowd cheered that too.
Yet, Saylor nearly blew up doing that. But now he is leveraged safely, allegedly.
And we are supposed to believe Bitcoin is going to a million. Strike that. I mean 10 million.
And governments cannot stop it.
Add to that whales are bailing. Who exactly are the buyers when whales sell?
To top it off, miners now have better things to do with energy than mine Bitcoin.
Did Bitcoin “Digital Gold” Just Become Fool’s Gold?
In case you missed it, please see my January 11 post Did Bitcoin “Digital Gold” Just Become Fool’s Gold?
Bitcoin miners have better things to do than mine Bitcoin.
Saylor says Bitcoin would be $10 million tomorrow, if you knew what he does.
Why doesn’t he tell us, so we will all know?
If you still haven’t figured this out, Saylor is a charlatan who doesn’t know a damn thing.
Finally, if you are still convinced that Bitcoin is more that a speculative toy for market makers to whipsaw around, then go on believing.
The best representative asset bubble blow-off peak and collapse for the 1982-2026 :: x/2.5x :: 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal growth and collapse asset-debt cycle is Silver in USD. In 41 trading days, its price more than doubled from 50 to 117 dollars per ounce and thereafter collapsed in a one day 35% flash crash. When has this rate of change ever occurred to this degree before for a daily widely tradable asset class?
The DJIA representing ‘safe equity assets’ peaked 6 Feb 2026, while the US Wilshire and global ACWI index failed to do so. The deleveraging of overvalued assets and liquidation and reordering of excess unpayable bad debts behind those superbubbled AI assets , real estate, consumer based, et.al. assets in this contracting consumer economy will be measured from the DJIA 6 Feb 2026 ‘safe asset’ peak valuation and also in the lesser safe NFT/ crypto’s in USD and Silver in USD earlier peak valuations.
When measured in gold instead of dollars, stocks peaked over 25 years ago. Look at a long term Dow / gold ratio chart, the cyclical pattern is quite striking.
The Gig is up!
My STRC is unshakeable haha. I have chump change in it. We shall see how it performs.
LOL. You mentioned the movie “Melania” is doing a bit better. Well, if you look at the movie’s rating on IMDb, it has a rating of 1.3! LOL Worst movie of all time!
Reports are that people are being paid up to $50 to go see the movie. They have to pay for their own ticket but then get to keep the remainder of the cash. [lol]
Epstein was in the back row with popcorn tub on his lap.
With extra butter?
There is only one film I am going to make sure I view this year. MELANIA. Not a joke. The best film of 2025 was “the apprentice”. I did watch “there will be blood” again, best film of the 21st century imho. I watch about 100 to 150 quality films per annum. Life on 3rd base for life
I’ll admit it: for a long time I couldn’t quite put my finger on why BTC felt like a sham as an investment, even though I always understood it as a unique money-moving tool, not a productive asset.
Over the last few months I’ve also come to appreciate the “energy / mining economics” critique—but to me that argument is primarily about security budget fragility (i.e., what you have to keep paying in energy to keep the system hard to attack), not a direct explanation of value.
Michael Saylor aside, the cleanest “value” hit I’ve seen is Kendall’s point that scarcity stops being the pricing anchor once synthetic supply dominates.
Yes, on-chain supply is capped. But if the market can stack multiple claims on the same underlying coin—ETFs, cash-settled futures, perps, options, broker lending, swaps, wrappers—then “scarcity” becomes more of a slogan than a constraint.
At that point, price discovery is a derivatives / leverage / liquidation game, not a simple supply-and-demand story.
That’s the structural break: not that the protocol changed, but that the financialization layer changed what “scarce” means in practice—exactly like what’s happened in other derivatives-dominated markets.
If “digital gold” depends on scarcity as BTC’s core narrative, how do you defend that narrative once scarcity can be effectively “printed” via paper claims? You can’t.
I suppose BTC has some marginal value as a money movement system—like Beanie Babies have value as toys, but it is clearly not an investible asset any more than a Beanie Baby.
bitcoin was developed by Darpa. like many other useful things besides warfare. us highways and darpanet / internet and nuke power………….
rantings of a lunatic gold bug crackpot. our sec of treasury. maybe the sec of war and state will chime in, too. peace, TT. https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/02/06/hugely-important-bessent-issues-surprise-warning-that-could-be-about-to-trigger-a-gold-and-bitcoin-price-shock/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/02/06/hugely-important-bessent-issues-surprise-warning-that-could-be-about-to-trigger-a-gold-and-bitcoin-price-shock/
Easy money chasing phantom assets.
Just like data centers are predicted to have to bear an additional cost burden for extreme electricity usage, shielding household energy consumers, crypto should have to do the same. Crypto upkeep consumes more electricity than small countries.
every old factory town in upstate NY or new england tapped into the hydro power of waterfalls and rivers……..before the factory workers did. this is as old as dirt.
You can always count on this site to know you are close to a buy signal, what a hoot.
Everything I bought today I caught half of, they’re all up 11-24%, went from 90% cash 4pm yday to 90% long around the open today. Wasn’t going to get in before it bounced something like this, I woulda been chopped up along the way. Congrats to those who participated today. A nice little 18% bounce
I still say it’s a bunch of stupid crap. Something that was supposed to be a store of value and trust, to buy stuff with…………and it’s just a gambling platform. I was always like how stupid would you have to be to take bitcoin for something when it could be worth a lot less by the end of the day. Digital jenga.
Vegas is stupid too – apply your argument to Las Vegas gaming.
Horse racing
Predictit
Card games not including poker variants
How does BTC stand out from this crowd, is it anything more than people not liking/understanding it?
predictit works wonders. huge distraction and fun gambling with peanuts. a great old book, “intelligent investor” suggested to have a separate account for fucking around trading money. been doing that since the 1980s. works perfectly. hat tip Rando
PS i met up with some of the Predict It punters in brooklyn political talk by matt taibbi a few years ago. great fun to have a fun evening with online betting and political junkies……………
As a frequent visitor to casinos I often marvel at how stupid most gamblers are. Most punters don’t even know the rules or odds of the games they’re playing. The amount of superstition is truly amazing, even in poker where players have “favorite” hands usually a normally unplayable hand that they once before, against all odds, had turn into a big win so now they lose time and time again on that same hand. The drunk or stupid are my favorite opponents.
The struggle for the host is to make gambling seem fun, even though the odds are against them. Lotteries are even worse, they are essentially an optional tax on stupid people.
I disagree with the wave counts presented. I view the sideways move from November 2025 lows to January 2026 highs as part of a zigzag correction. The zag may have completed overnight since there was a hard reversal off $60.5K. In conjunction with E-waves, I’m watching Hurst cycles, which indicate “40 day” and “10 week” cycle lows about now.
Looking forward, I expect 3-5 months of choppy, sideways to up counter-trend consolidation before heavy selling pressure resumes in June-July.
Edit timed out. Reposting
I disagree with the wave counts presented. I view the sideways move from November 2025 lows to January 2026 highs as part of a double zigzag correction. The second zig may have completed overnight since there was a hard reversal off $60.5K. In conjunction with E-waves, I’m watching Hurst cycles, which indicate “40 day” and “10 week” cycle lows about now.
Looking forward, I expect 10-12 days of choppy, sideways to up counter-trend consolidation before the second zag begins, analogous to the bounce off the October 2025 lows.
Bitcoin is not a currency or store of value and never was except to charlatans and true believers. Tulip bulbs are more useful.
Bessent is now suggesting China is creating digital assets backed by gold
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/02/06/hugely-important-bessent-issues-surprise-warning-that-could-be-about-to-trigger-a-gold-and-bitcoin-price-shock/
I was thinking tulips.
Bitcoin was never anything more than an inflation sink and a distraction device to misdirect investor attention away from gold. Now that it can no longer usefully serve either of those functions, its creators are allowing it to seek its intrinsic value which is zero, or thereabouts.
This
That’s tremendously profound, especially from you. I feel much better informed now and ready to meet investment challenges ahead. not.
Bitcoin is highly correlated with the NASDAQ.
Can’t be due to fundamentals because there aren’t any.
Yes there.are. The price of mining new coins / the price of energy.
Without miners, no energy to validate the chain
‘Silver’ Last ‘Dirt Cheap’ Physical Assets – Everything Else
In Bubble Mania.!
Adjusting Silver Prices For Inflation Shows That While Nominal Prices
Hit Highs In 2025 ($83+) – The True Peak Purchasing Power Was In
1980 – At $49.45/oz (Around $195-$200 Today).!
Post Plandemic Medical Tyranny – Almost Everything Has Doubled
Housing, Rent, Insurance, Property Taxes, Health Care, Groceries,
Gasoline, Diesel, Vehicles, Utilities, Wood/Building Supplies, Etc.!
Core Inflation – Excludes ‘Volatile’ Food & Energy Prices.!
The Only Growth In The Economy Right Now Is The Building
Of The ‘Digital Prison’ – Billionaires Dragging Everyone Into:
‘AI Skynet’ – Total Surveillance – Digital ID.!
Coinage Act of 1792 (Mint Act) – 15 to 1 Gold-Silver Ratio
Nah. look at median house prices and dow jones priced in gold and also in silver to see what has happened over the past 150 years.
been a nice short the past few weeks. this is the real hard trade here and now. the Amerikan conservatives have been radical big government whores since the 1920s. The Liberals today are literally the most illiberal people on planet. We have agreement in a uniparty of world wide war mongering uniparty. The old progressives in the 1800s prairie populists helped to free the slaves. And give emancipation to women and non landowners the vote in our world wide mongering empire. The empire has been voting in harmony by vast majority since 1898 for world wide warmongering. In the old days, men could utter the word evil empire and everyone understood what that was. The last 3 generations of people in USA seem special needs. Idiocracy was the documentary
Well said bmcc!
thank you.
“give emancipation to women”
Childish Leaders Oppress My People – Women Rule Over
Them – My People, Your Leaders Mislead You – They Turn
You From The Path. Isaiah 3:12
An oppressed people have women ruling over them. How
many women are ruling over you? School Boards? City
Councils? Sheriffs? State Representatives? Governors?
House and Senate? Vice-President? School teachers? Etc.!
you sound like the hasidic jews in my old hood of crown heights brooklyn. that cult treats females worse than most treat their enemies.
Don’t believe anything you read in Isaiah. That stuff is nutty.
Perhaps something to do with it being intrinsically worthless, costly to use, and dependent on a network of volunteers to continue to exist.
5 years ago people were telling me I was stupid for bring that stuff up. Maybe then I was.
those bulbs=tulips in Holland in 16 century were at least pretty during bloom!
Bitcoin just hit $69,000. Strong support at $0. See chart below:
=====
good one!! post of day
https://bitcoindeaths.com/
= bitcoin
you can put all bitcoins (=digits in comp memory) on single flash stick,
AND stick that FLASH FISK INTO SOMEONE’S ASS. literally!
you can lose that flash disk in ocean AND NOTHING WOULD CHANGE ON PLANET ON EARTH
IN OTHER words: it is useless.
buy/sell all you want, but don’t tell it is gonna be on planet earth AS LONG AS HUMAN KIND is ALIVE. it ain;t.
gold will!
alx
ps
btw, those bulbs=tulips in Holland in 16 century were at least pretty during bloom!
Bitcoin ain’t even shiny.
exacto.
you cant even fun w/ it.
James Howells vehemently disagrees with your assessment of BTC’s utility.
Seeing trillions of fiat inflation being vaporized POOF! makes me SMILE.
Seems like kind of a good thing that it popped up to soak up all that cash. For the most part, only the people that involved themselves got burned.
It’s not a toy, it’s a useful tool for sanctioned countries like Iran or Russia to move funds around, for the Trump family to accept bribes etc.
Russia and a Business called A7 have created a system by which the Sanctions can be bypassed.
https://www.info-res.org/cir-2/reports/a7-abroad-sanctions-evasion-as-a-service/
Russia has open border w/ biggest country (ppl wise), and industrial wise on planet earth called china!
did you skip entirely school from 4th grade? or you are just plain mo11ron from Wisconsin?
Whenever I felt like driving to Minneapolis I stopped at a restaurant in Osseo, WI, then turned back around.
This is all about Saylor entering the credit market, the banking cartel is not happy about it.
There’s no there there. And there never has been. How many little people have been scammed by this speculation?
Does someone smell smoke in the theater and it’s not coming from the popcorn machine?
Leverage & Exponential Function.
As long as it’s fun to name names in the comments, Peter Schiff was once again early / correct on this one.
The Chief and Deninger discussed this, including the MicroStrategy part, quite a bit on this morning’s Stocks & Jocks podcast.
Financial Talk Show | Sports Commentary | Stocks & Jocks
I currently have a small amount of Bitcoin (under 1%). I would watch it closer on a move below $40k or even better below that $25k level and it’s within a year of the next halving.
Investing in bitcoin is not investing. It is playing the slots at the casino. You might win, you might lose. Right now you are losing. If you want to keep playing put more money in and pull the handle.
Isn’t that what most ‘investing’ is? Most just want the stock price to increase so they can flip it for a tidy profit to the next person. That person hopes to do the same. Sometimes one ‘wins’, sometimes one ‘loses’.*
*unless one is a politician in D.C., then your odds of winning increase significantly
Mostly no but partly yes to answer “Isn’t that what most ‘investing’ is?”.
US companies have GAAP reporting to tell investors about the state of the company. Based on factors such as quality of management and external factors, an investor weighs company equity offerings against other companies and/or a personal standard and invests or doesn’t. Call it educated gambling.
Stock market investing in US companies return is the best gambling house on the planet for retail consumers/investors.
Well there are pure naked risk plays and then there are educated guesses. The difference between investing in a dividend bearing blue chip company vs a junior mining company. Bitcoin is more like the latter than the former.
So is pretty much everything else. When the poker room fills up with morons, even if the rules are observed, there is no strategy.
two directional indicators
Trump sold $5mil in Bitcoin yesterday
Trump established US Bitcoin Reserve a year ago
ETTD
Bitcoin was sold as an alternative to the system — turns out it works exactly like one.
Constant inflows, pure confidence.
The real question isn’t crypto. It’s how long the USD version lasts.
About 15-20 years. No real competitor in sight, still looking at cooked Chinese books and skeptical, but the trend is there. I don’t expect history to reverse itself.
The real question isn’t crypto. It’s how long the USD version
lasts – About 15-20 years. No real competitor in sight.! HaHaHa
US/UK/Israel(NATO) NORTH America Terrorist Organization (BANKRUPT) ‘VERSUS’ BRICS Alliance (Global SOUTH) (RESOURCE RICH)
Yeah.
An alternative that presupposes beneficent government, civil order, electrical grids, peace, nuclear quiescence, and a whole host of things.
Problem with much of modern society is that they think financial continuity, food, basic existence, etc., are a priori out-dated concerns. Never think about maintaining basic societal and physical sustenance of biological life. Ask the kids digging out coltan from the mud: Why won’t you consider Bitcoin?
It was doing well until trump got involved.
Maybe he’ll buy some with the 10 billion he’s suing the IRS for.
I wonder how much the DOJ will settle with him for?
Saylor is the white Obama
He’s married to a dude?
Better than any you have rented for a half hour.
So MSTR just buys Bitcoin with leverage? that’s the whoel biz? i remember when it was an actual business.
i’m sure it’s been noted before, but Sayler looks exactly like Guy Pearce.
“Bitcoin Is Crashing So Hard That Miners Are Unplugging Their Equipment”
And Bitcoin fans would call me ignorant when I would ask them, “What happens when the power goes out.”
There are a lot of people in the world that don’t think the power CAN go out.
Depends which Power we are talking about…
If there ever was a higher power, it hasn’t been evident for the last 1000 years at least.
Interesting take here. The author is saying the decline in cryptos across the board, gold, silver and the momo tech stocks is all being driven by liquidity demands as the Japanese Yen Carry Trade positions are unwound in the face of the BoJ raising rates + talk of more fiscally hawkish policies.
https://occupywallst.com/yen
I agree with liquidity being the problem with many assets including bitcoin. My take is different than Mish’s. I think when there is too much easy money flowing it flows to exotic things like bitcoin, artwork, NFTs, and other stuff.
What bitcoin is telling us is that liquidity is draining and/or inflation is about to spike hard as money flows into tangible assets for the sake of safety.
Ironically the new digital currency of AI “tokens” is what money is flowing into at the moment in the form of electricity, data centers, and the like.
If AI tokens become married to bitcoin, I expect bitcoin or some version of it (e.g. etha) to skyrocket in the future. I have a small amount of bitcoin and I won’t sell it until it hits $1 million if it ever does.
From my standpoint, money seems to be flowing into oil & gas stocks right now so someone must know that oil markets are going to get disrupted soon enough. Iran? Russia? If oil spikes, inflation spikes are soon to follow. I also took position in FXY (yen) a while back.
Iran. The US is “negotiating”. That’s never good.
Well just read this…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/us-asks-american-citizens-to-leave-iran-now-ahead-of-high-stakes-talks-with-tehran-.html
The U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran issued a security alert early Friday urging American citizens to “leave Iran now” and prepare departure plans that don’t rely on U.S. government assistance.
OK but wouldn’t the rising risk of war with Iran (or at least another series of attacks,) cause a flight to safety like gold, silver and, yes, Bitcoin? Instead those are declining in price as people sell those liquid assets to raise cash. And why are they needing to raise cash?
“And why are they needing to raise cash?”
Inflation.
That doesn’t make any sense. Cash is the worst thing to hold in an inflationary environment as inflation reduces the value of each unit of cash. You want to hold assets that will retain their value which is the opposite of what happened.
Ok, I clearly need to get more rudimentary here with you.
You sell speculative assets (bitcoin) to raise cash and move to tangible (hard assets) to mitigate inflation.
e.g. you sell bitcoin (a speculative instrument that pays no interest or generates income) to buy real estate (rental income) or dividend stocks (oil & gas are in favor) or metals (gold/silver).
This process isn’t instantaneous, you have to sell the assets, get the cash and find the right investments for your time horizon. That’s the “cash” part of it.
Right now there is rotation into staples (go look at P&G stock), oil & gas (inflation hedge + dividends) and metals. Everything else is getting sold off.
Every week I get postcards or calls for my rental properties from investors and that’s increased the past few weeks so I know something is up.
When I read “…(a speculative instrument that pays no interest or generates income)…” I was sure you were taking about gold or silver. Because, you know, gold pays no interest and generates no income. Silver has industrial demand.
I never fell for Bitcoin. It was musical chairs from the get go. Blockchain transparency is now a bug and no longer a feature. Inflation is man made and we are stuck far out to sea with no sails and no paddles.
Of course. Thanks for using crayons, I understand now. That’s why silver and gold are off their highs because people are piling into, huh, silver and gold.
Here we go again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8hEtI9AI0U
quantum computing sneaking up on your collection of 1’s and 0’s
https://www.deloitte.com/nl/en/services/consulting-risk/perspectives/quantum-computers-and-the-bitcoin-blockchain.html
That’s my ignorant take on Bitcoin. Someday its encryption will be broken.
It’s pronounced “ignernt”, you ignoramus!
Don’t worry, I pronounce it that way.
Excellent. Now I know you’re truly American.
THAT is an argument for holding gold. If the encryption goes, so does all the funny money, in the blink of an eye.
I think quantum computing will be the key to general AI
Silver almost closed the $62.54 gap today. Come on Silver you can do it. Traded as low as $63.90
in 21 days, Comex must deliver 429 million ounces of silver demand. There is only 103 ounces in supply. Tell me how that’s going to work in 21 days. Put it on your calendar.
Interesting. How has this type of issue been handled in the past?
Force majeure, with cash settlement.
Interesting, would seem to throw the whole process into complete disarray
Welcome to the 2020’s
what silver?
did you see pictures in Weimar republic how they brought paper=money in wheelbarrows to buy bread?
i guess they will deliver same paper silver,, same way
I predict that A LOT of wholesalers/retailers will get wiped out along with their customers. Those in physical possession of silver can sell to the people who need physical silver to manufacture product. Once the true supply of silver is revealed the demand will set the true price.
Pedestrian, I know.
The COMEX does deliver physical silver, but it is predominantly a, {“paper market”} where most contracts are settled in cash rather than through physical delivery. There’s 364 oz of paper silver to every one ounce of physical silver on the comex….and they continue to flood more into the market.PMs and Stork Certificates are all paper and are generally priced higher than the underlying asset. Same with Real Estate, generally worth less than the paper that says it’s yours.
There are waves of hypothecation that benefit some as they move in and out of Markets, but I just buy stuff I like so I am never disappointed with the perceived values that others place on it. I don’t speculate or gamble otherwise known as investing. It is not worth the damage it inflicts on my fellow mankind.
Here’s why bitcoin’s is failing its role as a ‘safe haven’ versus gold
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/24/here-s-why-bitcoin-s-is-failing-its-role-as-a-safe-haven-versus-gold
Bitcoin is exactly like fiat paper currency. Only good as the entity that prints. In this case, the Bitcoin printer is……
Pass me a tulip, please.
No justice. You try to warn people and they don’t seem to care. Then they are mad at you for not warning them.
One of these people made a mistake and when his staff all reminded him that they did warn him, he replied that “they didn’t warn him loud enough”.