#BREAKING: Parliament has voted to delay Brexit again. The Prime Minister will not ask for a delay — he will tell EU leaders there should be no more delays and we should get Brexit done on October 31st with our new deal so the country can move on. pic.twitter.com/5EE69IuhUO
— Conservatives (@Conservatives) October 19, 2019
Boris Johnson stated he will not comply with the Benn Bill requiring him to seek an extension.
One possible way out would be to get France or some other nation to reject the extension request. But that would still presumes Johnson would ask.
The Guardian Live Blog has more details.
A spokeswoman for the European commission said it was up to the UK government to make the next move after the developments in the Commons. She said: “The European commission takes note of the vote in the House of Commons today on the so-called Letwin amendment meaning that the withdrawal agreement itself was not put to vote today. It will be for the UK government to inform us about the next steps as soon as possible.”
A spokesman for the European council president, Donald Tusk, declined to comment. Ambassadors for the EU27 will meet on Sunday morning to discuss the latest developments.
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1185560288680120320
Theresa May Comments
“I intend to rebel against all of those who don’t want to vote to deliver Brexit. If you don’t want no deal you have to vote for a deal. Businesses are crying out for certainty. People want certainty in their lives.”
She concludes by saying if you want the country to move forward, vote for the deal today.
Iain Duncan Smith rises and says he will back the deal. He calls on Oliver Letwin to remove his amendment, in order to give the people “a meaningful vote”.
The PM responds by saying it would be a great shame if the opportunity to have a meaningful vote “were to be taken away from us”. He stresses that he thinks Letwin is motivated by the best of intentions.
ERG Entirely On Board As Expected
What Clear? What’s Not?
What’s clear is Johnson has the votes.
What’s not clear is what happens next.
Johnson possibly has a legal trick up his sleeve, one discussed before on this blog. Perhaps he tries that and succeeds or fails. Perhaps France says they will allow an extension but only for the purpose of a meaningful vote.
The problem with the extension is that it gives parliament ample time to all all kinds of amendments counter to the deal Johnson negotiated. Of course, the EU has a say and they are not prone to making any changes.
Expect a legal challenge on Monday, perhaps with Johnson’s own legal challenge to Benn.
Johnson’s Ace in the Hole
I discussed one legal way out for Johnson six days ago in Boris Johnson’s Brexit Ace in the Hole Revealed.
Without a doubt Johnson has been coerced.
How the courts rule is uncertain.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I’ll avoid falling into the trap of playing the ball, rather than the issues. Of the 5 issues I offered as opportunities for discussion, only 1 secured – banks – secured a response.
I am no fan of banks, quite the reverse. The way that they – and their central bank supporters – have operated has resulted in an horrendus wealth transfer toward that rich that is societally wholly devisive. But it remains the inarguable case that EU banks are in critically worse state, based on their inadequate capital ratios and numbers of non-performing loans than those of the US and the UK. The ominous macro-economic problem is that the interconnectedness of the banks means that a systemic banking crisis in Europe, which is by far the most likely place for it to begin, may well bring down the whole financial system.
Turning to the political points, I fully accept that the EU is one of the institutions that has helped avoid both war in Europe and rise of the far left. The avoidance of which is welcome given that both war and the far left have been the cause, separately, of millions of deaths in Europe and further afield.
But the EU is not the sole peace-securing institution. When it comes to peace, NATO has been in the eyes of many strategic commentators equally important. I served with NATO forces, I would argue it has been much more important. It has been a much more effective institution, not least because like it or not there is clear leadership, when compared to the EU.
Turning to the financial points, I am also no fan of the financial systems, including the Central Banks, the large banks and institutions such as the IMF. They are all relying on neo-Keynsian economic theory that is clearly fatally flawed. What’s happening in the REPO markets, which is evidence of the consequences of these flaws, is most likely the consequence of a breakdown of the Eurodollar system, which has been in deep trouble since the GFC.
But if things are bad in the US and the UK, they are even worse in the EU where, for the flaws that I highlighted in my first reply are exacerbating the situation. Greece is falling apart, and as Yanis Varofoucis so elegantly explains in Adults in the Room, the central reasons are its membership of the Euro and the intransigence of the EU, its institutions and Germany to countenance an recovery programme that would have given it a fighting chance of economic recovery. Now we have the ECB, which has printed significantly more Euro proportionately than the US, and way more than the UK, and yet has achieved almost nothing economically.
When you stand back and look at the EU, how do things look? Yellowshirts in France. Catalans fighting for indepdence in Spain. The ominous rise of the right in Germany and Austria. And perhaps Sweden. The destruction of the Greek economy. The increasingly precarious state of the other PIIGS. Migration crises in many European countries, with Angela Merkel recently indicating that the assimilartion of migrants in Germany had been a failure.
The point about all these developments is that they are either an inevitable consequence of, or exacerbated by, the underlying design of the EU project.
In my experience of the British people, they get there intuitively more quickly than our politicians. When I was serving in Afghanistan in 2007, the British people were incredibly supportive of those of us in uniform, but had also come to recognise the strategic futility of the mission. It took British politicians another 5 or so years to catch up.
I judge its the same with the EU. The British people – well, at least 17.4M of them – have come to recognise a similar futility.
Someone from the Times got to him and convinced him to stretch it out another month. They need something to talk about to boost readership going into the Christmas gift giving season. Brexit happens the pundits won’t have anything to discuss.
Johnson has one great strategic achievement: he has conquered the right wing of the Tory party. I cannot see them breaking away from him anymore. He also persuaded several Remainer rebels to follow his line but this is not complete (as the Letwin amendment shows). On the other side, Corbyn let loose several leftist Leavers without direct damage. Meanwhile, he holds firm control over his own Remainers. LibDems are pushed into the background.
It seems symmetric to me which means the gridlock is still in place. The strategic situation suggests an extension with general election.
As for the tactical outcome, I have little idea. It is amazing to see the intellectual efforts of these politicians on all sides. Anyway, my opinion is that if neither side makes serious errors, an extension is still likely.
Extension or election. I’m having trouble seeing the point to whichever outcome, though. Something is lost and I’m trying to figure out what that is exactly. We used to have countries, each with their strengths and weaknesses, but free to plot their own course. And now, it’s this swamp of filth&sorrow filled with dishonesty, greed, egomaniacs and narrowminded fools. No matter what the cost to society, as long as ‘they’ get ‘their’ way, by all means, let’s continue with the freakshow.
I cannot argue with that.
It is hard to contemplate what is lost.
I think the PM was not surprised at all today but some of his supporters certainly were. It is always a bad idea to underestimate the opponent. Especially if you see it as an oppressive power or its minions. If you want to win in a situation like this, you cannot go into the wall with your head.
The British are used to the role of the oppressive power and it is played against them.
EU won’t act on the extension request until the UK votes on the Withdrawal Agreement. Why would they?
So it all seems to be going down like this:
-If this happens, EU will consider Boris letter as a request for the extention and will grant one
Could happen, I doubt it though. The EU already looks like they have manipulated the situation for years and come October 31 if they have facilitated any more extensions and debate and political terrorism and treachery in parliament they are going to get the blame and they know it. Macron is particularly keen not to be seen as responsible, he has more than enough on the French plate to deal with Brexit any longer. My prediction is that Turkey does unleash a wave of refugees on the EU and France will see a turn to Le Pen while Germany sees more gains for AfD. Catalonia goes nuclear and has to be occupied by Madrid with the EU commission’s dirty greasy little fingerprints all over that. So maybe the remainers and their EU commission sponsors do manage to drag things out a bit longer, and while they are busy taking the leave voters of the UK to the woodshed the entire stinking edifice of the EU is swirling ever faster in the toilet bowel.
So far it moves towards legal disagreement and interpretation of laws by different parties, close to what I was predicting… EU will likely accept the extention, but Boris can ignore it, which will end up in legal dispute in UK tough… It is also subject to EU interpretaions… it going to be a mess on Oct 31…
CNBC reported hours ago that the EU had received a request from the UK government for a delay/extension. It also said that Johnson had not signed it, the article did not say who sent it, but, I doubt it matters. The remainers will find a way to drag things out, Tusk and the Commission need to have it in the Sunday morning papers when Brits wake tomorrow that there will be no extension other than a very brief one to implement the deal as it was negotiated WITHOUT amendments. That is the only stick they have left with which to threaten the parliament to vote and deliver Brexit on the 31st. If there is ANY hint at all they are willing to give an extension for any reason aside from implementation technicalities then the remainers will milk it and pass an act saying that Johnson has to stand on his head in Stormont till hell freezes over.
Really, I do not know why I fell for the enthusiasm over a deal, the remainers are not going to allow it and even if one is done and the UK leaves the EU they will still be trying to make things in Britain as bad as they can in order to blame the conservatives for it all, when any thinking person will see that it is their bad faith that has dragged this out for years and made negative consequences INEVITABLE!
Time for the Tories to start passing a few laws of their own dealing with treachery.
Relax, after they take Johnson down a step or two and see him grovel a bit, the deal will be passed early November. The Tories are punishing him for kicking out their buddies. I also suspect there are a lot of Tory MPs who are looking to topple Johnson as fast as possible – perhaps when some weakness in the deal he signed becomes painfully obvious to the general public and he personally takes the blame. Obviously most of the Tory MPs aren’t dumb enough to want the disaster that a “No Deal” Brexit will invoke – that would take the whole party down, so this is the deal, and the only way it isn’t going to pass is if a referendum is bolted on to it – then it will pass the house but, if the alternative in the referendum is “Dump this whole mess and revoke article 50” then all bets are off.
Somehow, it’s the same all over the world. I’ve heard it being referred to as a ‘culture war’ and perhaps that’s the correct name for it. And yet, I do see the same pattern every time. It’s leftwing politics that’s supported by leftwing media and aided and abetted by left-leaning social media companies versus the other side, the conservatives or ‘rightwing’ politics. There are differences between left-right in the USA and Europe of course. But what is the same is the propaganda, although it’s peak crazy in the US right now. I try to avoid thinking in left and right, black and white and more of these platitudes. But whatever it is, it’s universal, like darkness and light. And the worst of it is, it’s the people and more specifically, the poor people who suffer from this divide, this clash of cultures, this disgusting game between big ego careerpoliticians, each and every time.
I think you’ve hit it on the head. There are some differences between the “sides” (the right wing seems to have abandoned science, and have joined the left wing in abandoning sane macro economics) but it is just as likely that the disenfranchised will pivot and target the right wing populists if they overpromise and don’t deliver (sound like any President you know?). I liked Charles Murray’s recent book “Coming Apart” which dug into this subject.
Speaking of sane economics, despite everything else being just a big play for power and money, this is the first time in human history that money has no value. If you work for an hour and you earn 20 dollars and you decide to lend out those 20 dollars for say a year, in todays world, you’re not getting compensated for that. In fact, in Europe you’re getting back less than what you lent out. And the US will soon follow. Well unless you’re in the cabal of financial elites, then you’re fine and compensated to infinity. And financial elites run in the same circles as these politicians who are being worshipped by progressives who claim to be the morally righteous and for equality and fairness.
Or maybe, I just fell asleep 10 years ago and all of this is just a bad dream.
I think the financial elites along with some other major lobbying industries (MIC, Big Pharma, Carbon) have bought all the politicians and so the smartest aren’t going into public service any longer – they are going into the corner offices where real power is held – Steve Jobs singlehandedly changed the World more than any politician in 25 years, more if you only count 1st World countries. If you want to make a difference today, be unique like Steve Jobs, be a celebrity, or control massive amounts of financial power.
True words. I’m not special or exceptional. I just howl at the moon on a global economic trend analysis blog and pretend I have it figured out.
For all my faults, I just wish for truth and accountability. There should be a consequence for lying and stealing. Old testament style!
Don’t you think Johnson has already discussed this possibility and the Benn bill with the representatives of the EU council? They have probably already agreed informally to a script for various contingencies. The EU will do everything to force a vote instead of more futile dysfunctional political posturing and wrangling in Parliament.
What could be more ludicrous than to refuse to vote on a motion?
Just announced Boris will be sending a letter to eu
I wonder if he will use my cover letter?
If he does it will be the only thing signed! 🙂
Looks like to me the risk of a hard Brexit just went up dramatically. Crazed politics, screw doing things for the good of the country and people in it. Win at all costs or take em down with you if you lose. Damn
That might be what’s going on. It’s obvious at this point that remain can’t win, so they seem to be determined to cause as much damage to the country as they can out of spite.
Good Lord.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. You take a bunch of snake oil salesmen ne’er do wells and charlatans, they tell you that all the ills in the world are the fault of the EU and that if you vote to overthrow the oppression of this evil empire then you will, at one stroke, dropped into a land of milk and honey where everyone will have caviar and champagne for tea. And what have you got? Ashes in your mouths. No having your cake and eating it, no easiest deal in history, no more they need us more than we need them, no more bestriding the world like a colossus just being the laughingstock of the world. Well done when do you realise that the true traitor is your adorable Eton boy who couldn’t organise a bunk up in a brothel. You should be proud of yourselves.
Avid, it is going to be fun watching you vanish in the next week when the deal is passed or the UK exits without the deal.
The way I read Avid’s post, it has the distinct odour of someone who has already resigned himself to defeat. To his credit, I don’t expect him to go anywhere. He will continue to express his opinion, which is what forums like this are all about.
Last few breaths of a remainer. Fighting till end. Good luck. Liar has proved himself
Did you see Nigel Dodds laying into him? The DUP are lost to the liar. Someone in the distance is warming up to sing the “Ode to joy”
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. You take a bunch of snake oil salesmen ne’er do wells and charlatans, they tell you that all the ills in the world are the fault of the Brexiteers and that if you vote to overthrow the oppression of this evil empire then you will, at one stroke, dropped into a land of milk and honey where everyone will have caviar and champagne for tea. And what have you got? Ashes in your mouths. No having your cake and eating it, … no more bestriding the world like a colossus just being the laughingstock of the world. …You should be proud of yourselves.
Why repeat
Why repeat
Avidremainer has, for some time, been speaking with no deep understanding of what really has been going on in the EU. I doubt that avidremainder is schooled in economics. As such, avidremainer is not alone, in that not only Remainers but also Leavers have missed the truly bigger picture of the Titanic that is the EU.
Sat within the heart of this political – masquerading as economic – construct are interelated and collectively fatal flaws. Lets look at just five.
First, and critically, you can’t run a successful monetary union without political union, that is the superstate. The political union vision is implicit in the Franco-German core vision, but also antithetical to the British people’s sense of nation hood – and indeed to many other European peoples.
Second, whilst many EU states joined for reasons of expecting EU Structural Funds largesse – largely paid for by German, British and Northern European taxpayers – the consequences for them of Euro membership, and the loss therein of sovereign monetary – and, through the stability pact – fiscal independence have been devastating. Take Greece, who’s people have endured an economic depression of greater length and depth than the great depression.
Third, the TARGET2 settlement imbalances that have built up within the Eurozone, which were a foreseeable consequence of its original design, mean that Italians and Spaniears now have debts to Germans amounting to Euro0.8Trillion. I and others judge that these debts are unrepayable – except possibly by the creation of high inflation by the ECB – and its not clear to me how the indebtedness story ends well.
Fourth, European banks – including Deutche Bank – are in parlous state, with capital adequacy ratios at a wholly inadequate 1%, compared to those of the US and Britain, which are in the range 5-8% and just about adequate. When viewed through the metric of Non-Performing Loans, then some Italian and Spanish banks are clearly insolvent. Scary, because us Anglo-Saxons won’t escape the consequences of a systemic banking crisis in Europe.
Fifth, there’s the old chestnut of migration. Its obvious – and has been for over 20 years – that with populations in North Africa and the Maghreb rising more quickly than their per capital GDPs, then people will migrate North. Yet the EU’s policy for dealing with mighration is wholly inadequate.
The question is, in the light of all of the above, why would the British want to stay aboard this political Titanic? It is not a question of if it fails, but rather when. My guess is that it will soldier on for a while, but then the 2nd – and much bigger – Great Financial Crisis will injure it fatally, and countries will then go their own way.
As such, and it was on the basis of all of the above that I voted Leave, we are better to get out now, before this inevitable failure, and chart our own destiny. No body says it will be easy. With a global recession imminent, it obviously won’t be. But with sovereign government restored, and the levers of our economic destiny back in our own hands, we’ll have the political agility that we’ll need to navigate this difficult future. Which will be in stark contrasts our good friends across the Channel.
Great piece!
And we could add the destruction the ECB has brought on all of us and it looks like, after 10 years of theft and wealthtransfer, there’s something more than a recession about to hit us.
Seriously, who in their right mind would even vote or advocate for the EU?
Never assume it makes you a pompous ass. I have a copy of the New Statesman for the week of my birth in September 1952. It reports two speeches, one by Sir Anthony Eden, then the Tory Foreign Secretary , the other by Manny Shinwell then a labour shadow minister. They both predicted failure and damnation for the then fledgling Iron and Steel community. Numpties like you have been predicting the same outcome for every other milestone on the road to European integration. You and yours have not come up with a new idea in 67 years. Your ideas were bollox then they are bollox now.
You’ve lost the argument each time you resort to namecalling and the denigration of your opponents in discussion.
The Cornish nut job is not an opponent, he is an empty echo chamber. And if I recall you’re no slouch when it comes to name calling. I am after all in my right mind in supporting the EU.
‘I am in my right mind in supporting the EU’
There are plenty of sane masochists, it depends on how you gratify your need for abuse. There are ladies out there who cater to peculiar men like you who get off on paying money to be told what to do.
Resorting to insults looks to be a case of playing the man rather the ball, the argument having been lost. Which is a pity, given the gravity of the subject we are discussing.
Perhaps, thought, avidremainer would care respond, with reasoned argument, to the five points that I originally made. I, in return, would be very open to reasoned argument on the points. They are points that I’ve ocassionally made in friendly conversation with my (many) Remainer friends.
For the record, none have been able to respond with reasoned argument. The general resort has been to accept what I’ve said, but to make the case that, notwithstanding all the EU’s faults, Britain would be better to stay inside, and work inside the EU to overcome the flaws.
This is a position that I respect, but disagree with, because it relies on an implicit yet also flawed assumption that these flaws can be overcome.
But I’m wholly open to being proved wrong and would be delighted to see a reasoned point-by-point response from avidremainer, which I would read with interested and genuine open-mindedness.
I am still waiting for Avid to post one single reason logical or otherwise, for the stance on remaining, and an explanation why it is okay to just ignore the will of the people when they voted to leave. Seriously, if one could post a cogent reason for being an avid remainer then it might actually change some minds about this entire subject, but in hundreds (thousands?) of posts I have yet to see any rational excuse for simply disregarding the referendum and defending the indefensible EU.
On the other hand I hold the position that at the very least the leave vote that shocked all the smug unionists should have been seen as a certain sign that something very basic is wrong with the construction of the EU confederacy that is so fundamental that British people decided they had to leave, and it could not be repaired, could no longer wait. How did the EU pretend that all the fault was somehow British? They did no soul searching, no evaluation of why this has come about, and they still have not as Spain falls apart, Poland ignores their duty to the treaty, Yellow Vests are ruthlessly suppressed, Italy again just blows past financial obligations, the continent is swamped with migrants and homelessness. Even Germany sees recession and the rise of the AfD which should give the whole planet pause to reflect at the underlying rot in the EU.
I don’t mind Avidremainer’s position, at all. In fact, I’ll always respect someone having his own positions and political views and being passionate about these. In this case however, I don’t understand why someone who clearly has plenty of life-experience and intelligence, would choose to refer to people constantly as ‘liars’ or just continuously respond in a somewhat pompous manner, or call other opinions bollox. If I’ve made that same mistake in the past, I call myself a fucking idiot for doing that and will refrain from repeating said mistake. Somehow it’s not just Avidremainer’s habit, it’s probably something British. Just look at that parliament, the mindgames and the gross disrespect for democracy. It’s turned into something so divise, undemocratic and it has destroyed a lot of social cohesion. The stench of it is suffocating and I try my hardest to ignore most newsoutlets. I’m glad Mish is covering this though. However this ends, this will leave serious scars and I highly doubt politicians will ever be respected or trusted again after this debacle. Elections in the years ahead will hopefully deal with this disrespect and contempt and hold some people accountable by not re-electing them. As for the EU, like I’ve said before, the model was flawed from the start and the majority of the people just do not want it. But we’re up against corporations and more importantly, a deeply intertwined financial industry (London being the heart of it) that will do anything, break down the last bit of social cohesion and trust to remain in power. And you are correct, I fear the ECB and its policies have brought us on the cusp of a financial crisis, the likes of which will wreak havoc and most likely, will be the death of the union. I don’t want or desire havoc, but I prefer building something from the ashes of this broken system, rather than seeing people who are protesting getting killed, maimed, beaten down and continuously being accused of all kinds of ‘isms’ or ‘phobics’. Unsustainable mass-immigration just doesn’t work and it’s costing so much more than money. In Ireland, there is a MASSIVE housingshortage, where yours truly is deeply affected by personally. But aside from myself, there’s a big homelessness problem, extortionate alltime-high rents and somehow it was the Irish governments decision to embrace this policy, regardless of the predicaments of its own population.
And don’t forget the media’s role in this disaster. News isn’t news anymore, it’s propaganda, politically and culturally. It’s so sickening, I cannot watch it or listen to it. The cheerboys&girls for the EU are a particularly nasty kind, because it’s about power and money, like it always is. It may have started with a referendum to leave an economic union, but it’s been turned into something much more profound. Each and every politician, bureaucrat or propagandist is to blame for turning a simple ‘leave’ vote into a gigantic mess which has caused so much damage, not just to the political landscape, but to the hearts and minds of the average, workingclass person who has been treated as a debtslave, a taxcow and who is seeing that his income hasn’t been able to keep up with the rising costs of living, ever since the EU project started. A decade of NIRP and ZIRP, billions and billions of wealthtransfer from the people to the elites has brought us to this point in time. So it’s about much more than just that referendum 3,5 years ago. It’s about freedom, sovereignty and respect for democracy. And respect of each other, which is something that’s gotten lost in the process as well.
Thanks Harry, it was no small part in my decision to leave when I did all of the above, it was heart breaking to see fathers with young sons hanging out in front of the library in Athlone with their wheely suitcases and no idea where they would sleep that night. It was haunting, because it was a dad and his sons they were usually put up in hotels rather than the homeless shelters. How can people retain their dignity and why should they? And it doubly hurt when I mentioned it to acquaintances in the pub that evening and they retorted with his name and how he milks the system. They may have a point about how he milks the system because he wants to mind his boys, but those kids are not part of their calculations about dole cheats, they deserve better and are never going to get it as part of the EU. Or any socialist organization, they will always just be a problem to be solved. All my contacts with the government went through the welfare office, that is just how it is done there, as an American I have a built in aversion to having to step foot in a welfare office, ask any American on this board what that would mean to them, it is emblematic that the government deals with it’s people through that office. I also have no disrespect for pro EU attitudes when those people respect euroskeptics and we can agree to disagree, but what I have gotten, we all have, from Avidremainer is blanket name calling and disrespect without reason.
It makes me happier to be in my 60’s, because now I do not have the burden of watching what becomes of people in the 2030’s or 40’s, and I am the type that can’t just watch suffering even when it is self inflicted. And I will not bend to the marketing that says all the world’s problems exist because my generation existed, every day I am treated to threats and hate on reddit because of how my generation destroyed everything for younger people. How can people be this easily manipulated? Why would they so doggedly carry that bone in their mouths for a small handout from their wealthy masters? That they no make up a majority, or at least plurality of the population, I think the era of man or at least civilization is soon to end, and I do not want to be here for that.
Actually avidremainer, thank you – I’d not known about Eden and Shinwell’s prescient predictions – how right they were!
Name calling is your trade mark. I would say somewhat childish.
I always appreciate intelligent news analysis. Thanks!
Nice work and I agree, we are seeing rising popular resistance to the EU in real time, Yellow Vests, Brexit, Catalonian riots, PIS in Poland is simply ignoring their obligations under the treaty, Orban too. The next real GFC type recession will neuter the Commission and other states will leave, I doubt however that it will be a protracted game of political thrones as we have seen in the UK, it is more likely that it will be a statement made to the press that X nation simply refutes EU authority and has seceded. And yet other nations that do follow in the footsteps of Brexit for their leaving will find the same or worse treatment at the hands of the EU core financial tyrants and those nations will break apart. The trouble in Spain could well lead to a second civil war there. The assumption that the Catalan people will just swallow threats and punitive actions is grossly misplaced and ruling by such force is always a hallmark of a dictatorship. It does not matter if that dictatorship is right wing or left, the politically correct left is just as capable of atrocity as the right. The fact that they do a better job as painting themselves as benevolent is just marketing. There is nothing benevolent about the EU.
PS. I’d also thank Mish for his excellent analysis, which I’ve found wonderfully insightful. Especially coming from an American, with no axe to grind, just the facts to observe.
I smell a no deal Brexit. What about you? Thanks for that by the way. Three and a half years of remainer scheming have only served to bring us this close. We would owe you if it were deliberate and not the inevitable result of Dunning-Kruger syndrome.
‘You take a bunch of snake oil salesmen ne’er do wells and charlatans,’
Actually this is a different thing. It happens away from corrupt politics and corporations and is called ‘thinking’. I don’t recommend it in your case.
‘And what have you got? Ashes in your mouths.’
I agree with Yancey. It’s a shame that you will vanish when the inevitable occurs, it really is. I enjoy a good gloat.
‘no more bestriding the world like a colossus’
Fine with me. Contrary to the silly preconceptions of you hysterics, we don’t want the empire back. Freedom and prosperity will do just fine.
‘your adorable Eton boy’
If you were a chess players rather than a chequers players, you’d realise that Boris wants a deal, and a deal is the closest that you’re going to get to continued EU membership. I, on the other hand, don’t want a deal and am happy that you lemmings keep undermining any further attempts on his part to cede sovereignty to the Fourth Reich. Sadly, I have a sneaking feeling that you’l fail as you’ve done at nearly everything else over the past few years.
‘You should be proud of yourselves.’
‘Smug’. That’s the word you’re looking for. Pride will only come once we’re free again.
Has mummy given you your calpol?
Yes, thanks! Has yours got you on Prozac yet?
You should be in beddie-byes, nighty night.
Not for another few hours. I’m so excited!
LOL, I mean you did mean that to be funny right?
You state that I ” have no deep understanding of the EU ” and you doubt ” that I have been schooled in economics “. That makes you a patronising Git who attempted to play the man first. So you go for me I go for you, simples. At least I know when I’m being insulting you on the other hand do it so casually that you don’t know you are doing it. If you care to search on You Tube you will find all you need to know about the arguments which surrounded Wilson’s referendum in 1975. You will find Ted Heath extolling the virtues of ever closer union and making no bones about the fact that the then EEC was a political project aimed at Union. You will find Roy Jenkins extolling the virtues of peace and plenty and integration with Europe. You will also find Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, Peter Shore and Michael Foot warning the UK that we would lose our sovereignty and that this was too high a price to pay for the UK in the future as mapped out by the pro-marketeers. The pro-marketeers won the 1975. Either the voters didn’t listen to Ted Heath explaining exactly what ever closer union meant or they ignored Enoch Powell etc… when they pointed out that ever closer union meant the end of ” a thousand years of history ” to quote Hugh Gaitskell. What I find most dishonest about brexiteers is the claim that in 1975 we were conned by Ted Heath and the pro-marketeers. I view this as a flat lie. The warnings about the loss of sovereignty involved in ever closer union were given loudly and often by the anti marketeers. There can be no doubt that in 1975 the UK voted for ever closer union. As to economics, there is no economic theoretic base to explain the current system. Give me the benefit of your towering and superior economic knowledge. Tell me what is going on at the moment. As to the banks, you are quite right, they are in a mess, but they are all over the western world. You do know that former JP Morgan executives have RICO charges against them? This means that Dimon is in the cross hairs. Can you name a bank that hasn’t been fined for breaking the law? Of course they didn’t acknowledge guilt but hey they still handed over billions to the authorities. If you think that any of the technocratic solutions offered to placte the wider public have solved the problems then what is going on in the REPO market? Your characterisation of the expansion east I find churlish. We get smart brexiteers who refer to the evil EUUSSR. Not one of you has lived in a dictatorship.Angela Merkle has, Liths, Estonians latvians, Poles etc… have. How dare you brexiteers belittle the experience of fellow Europeans who have lived under tyranny you should be ashamed of yourselves. Where are the arrests in the night? Where are the Gulags? Where are 99% of votes metronomically given to the one partythat rules Europe? Of course you have to believe that the EU is evil, but you have bugger all to back it up but your feelings. You talk of the ‘British in glowing terms. Do you follow current events at all? You do understand that you are responsible, you and the Brexiteers, for the current disintegration of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. I have never known the situation to be so vituperative and nasty. Last of all, the liar, during his leadership campaign promised the DUP that he would never put a border down the Irish sea. Forgive me but hasn’t he thrown the DUP under a bus? Your champion will say anything to get through the next minute and damn the consequences. You do know that plan B for the DUP is to back a further referendum and not to leave the EU if the exit plan is not to their liking don’t you?
“Perhaps France says they will allow an extension but only for the purpose of a meaningful vote.”
Forget it Mish, of course France will allow for an extension but (as usual) they speak with a forked tongue.
The bigger the chaos, the bigger the deterrent for other countries to even TRY to leave the E/USSR prison. The longer the extension, the longer the “Remainders” can sabotage the result of the Brexit referendum and keep the UK in the fangs of the E/USSR.
It’s a win-win for the E/USSR.
The problem Mish, is that you see everything through the one-dimensional eyes of an American. It’s NOT just about ‘the UK versus the EU’ or BoJo having some fancy “3-D chess” trick up his sleeve. For the EU it’s about a complicated web of financial interests (the London/City banking/money laundering business, Germany’s export market) and about nipping all potential NEXIT (Netherlands), GEXIT (Germany), FEXIT (France), GREXIT Greece) etcetera movements in the bud.
I am a Dutch citizen living and working in Germany. Do you think that many Dutch and Germans will vote for an exit from the E/USSR after having witnessed this bullshit for >3 years? Only the most hardcore anti-central-planners like myself, but the majority (even of my Dutch and German friends who are quite conservative) are saying: “….well…errr, I don’t think leaving is such a good idea…”
Oh, I think they just might. Once the house of cards collapses even further. Do you think the Yellow Vests protests, the Boeren protests, Brexit and the Catalonia separation movement are just isolated incidents? The cracks, which were already present upon the foundation of this horrid union are turning into structural defects and the walls are about to cave in. Now all that awaits us is a financial crisis and we can rebuild something better, something that actually works for the people, from the ashes.
No I agree that those protests are not just for ‘shits & giggles’ but so far the governments toe a tough line. In the Netherlands, the people who protested against the cultural marxists (trying to block Black Pete) were prosecuted to the full extent of the law, convicted and forced to submit DNA and this will be stored. That’s the whole thing: normal working people can’t afford a criminal record, while the leftwing riffraff (living at the taxpayer’s expense) can keep on taking higher risks to set the political agenda without having to face any consequences.
….”tow” a tough line of course. This Apple autocomplete seems to be getting worse every day and sometimes I seriously wonder if they do this deliberately because I have the ‘ wrong’ political opinions. A lot of times it mixes German and Dutch words into sentences, even though I have selected the “English” language keyboard. Why…?!
No, it is nothing personal. It happens to me and I suspect there’s not much we would agree on, except that Cruyff Surbeer and Neeskins were part of the best football team ever.
Whatever. If you can’t comment on the content, I guess you have to bullshit.
Most Dutch people I have met were pleasant well mannered people, I guess you’re the exception to the rule.
Personal attack on another poster? I am SHOCKED, SHOCKED I say.
I am a remainer. On this site I have been called a traitor, been told, by you in your post above that I support evil. I am told that I have no understanding of economics, am not capable of playing chess every time you Americans say that Europeans are just idle commies or socialists you insult me. The trouble with you brexiteers is that you can dish it but you can’t take it, also I am beginning to believe that you don’t know you are doing it which leads be to believe that you live a very hermetic existence. If you want me to stop then you lay off the insults.
Oh that is rich, me stop the insults, from you? Don’t you have a million or two Syrians to resettle? Maybe a city state to crush? Riot to quell? Banker to pleasure?
My point is that you don’t know when you are being insulting. Doesn’t that make you think?
Fulgurite; TOE the line was correct the first time. “”Toe the line” is an idiomatic expression meaning either to conform to a rule or standard, or to stand poised at the starting line in a footrace.”
For the ultra far left EU corporate loving welfare begging anti conservatives/remainers, there is a major obstacle that they cannot really overcome, the people voted, and more will vote, in anti EU referendums, the left will of course attempt to do what we have seen in Britain, and that can make the conservative balls shrink up into the body cavity, but they will vote to leave anyway because the EU actually is an evil construct that would make Orwell’s characters very smugly happy. Most rational people in the EU are looking at what the Union is doing to Britain and you say it scares them from following English footsteps, I say they see it and say this is a brutal treatment of an ally. There is indignation in the hearts of people who do not want this done in their name.
I say what it is actually leading to is a situation in the UK where the differences between conservatives and liberals is in the process of destroying the nation. The remainers were the NI, Scots, Welsh, while the leavers are the English. Sentiment on both sides is strong enough to see the union broken. And the treatment by the EU of the UK over Brexit is such that it has only served to reinforce the notion that the EU really is an evil EUSSR!
Boris will not negotiate an extension and UK will leave with No Deal despite there being a good deal on the table.
Remainer MPs and especially Oliver Letwin will have caused Hard Brexit.
Nice one son
Oh the irony
Viz Benn Bill Court challenge: whether or not he sends in a letter as mandated, I believe they should challenge the lawfulness of that Bill on constitutional separation of powers basis, also perhaps the viability of Laws ordering specific individual to do things without clear penalties or somesuch. It’s just too weird. But by NOT challenging it, he allows a precedent to be set because he has de facto consented. Hopefully AG Cox will mount a vigorous challenge. And whilst that challenge goes through, all amendments attempting to boss the PM around in similar fashion can be added to the case. By the time they sort it all out – and the more amendments they offer the longer it will take – Oct 31st will have come and gone. I read somewhere today that BJ said after the vote that the latest Let-Down Amendment had greatly increased the chances of a No Deal Brexit. I suspect that’s their preferred outcome now. It is going to be up to all those people in Europe whom Grieve and Hammond and Letwin et alia have been plotting with to bring them around to stop all this nonsense, otherwise UK is going to have a far stronger hand at the bargaining table come Nov 1st.
Opinions differ but no doubt many believe that extensions increase, not decrease, the likelihood of No Deal exit on Oct 31st, but that assumes Europe refuses to grant an extension.
However, if there is one, it will be forced upon HMG which will further boost Tory returns in any subsequent general election, which (from Euro pt of view), means that he will return with a working majority and might be able to push a more favorable deal on them or, even worse and which they clearly DON’T want, just go for a No Deal exit. The best thing for Europe is for this current deal to go through now.
Fun thought: Bercow declines HMG the opportunity to go for the meaningful vote again (like he did with May). Europe declines and extension. Parliament, suddenly waking up and realising that Oct 31st is losing, begs Boris to have a vote on it and finally passes the deal!
Don’t know how reliable this is but acc to Express, Macron has already telegraphed his intention to veto any extension request.
( https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1192958/brexit-news-latest-emmanuel-macron-france-boris-Johnson-deal-vote-letwin-amendment )
And if that is true and then Speaker B has to hold to his own rules forbidding another vote on the same motion in the same session, in which case Oct 31st No Deal exit is it – unless the Opposition makes a motion to debate it!
(And then negotiations will continue on Nov 1st one exactly the same starting basis anyway but at least there will be no more useless Parliamentary twaddle.)
Yeah, about the Daily Express … watch Fox News much? – they are about as accurate as each other.
Another possibility is that Remainers try to amend the Withdrawal Act in numerous ways, in an attempt to further delay the process under the guise of needing to negotiate the agreement amendment with the EU, with the end goal being a new referendum in Britain.
In fact, I see that as the most likely scenario, even though it could blow up in their faces if Macron follows through on his threat to veto any extension request.
I don’t think Macron’s statement was a bluff, and I expect him to reiterate this in the next day or so. It is in no one’s interest to allow this chaos to continue. Remain needs to face reality- it is either pass this deal, exit with no deal on the 31st, or revoke Article 50. That Remain keeps choosing other options tells me that know they don’t have a majority of the public behind them, and never have.
Macron is a eunuch and will do as he’s told. It doesn’t matter though, The question of Brexit isn’t ‘if’ but ‘when’/
Only way Macron can get the Johnson deal approved (which is much better than no deal for France) is to tell UK parliament that there will be no extension whatsoever and France will block it.
This leads to UK parliament accepting the deal.
Kicking the can down the road increases the likelihood of NO deal Brexit.
I agree, the only way WAS to accept the deal TODAY as negotiated but they have again stopped Brexit, seems a short delay just till Tuesday, but on Tuesday they will find yet another way to delay things. The only way this deal happens and UK leaves October 31 is if the EU puts out a statement tonight for the Sunday morning papers that there will be NO MORE DELAY. Any hint of any possible delay and the remainers will keep holding up Brexit. Tusk and the EU leaders know this so if they are serious about this deal they will make sure that London wakes to the news that there absolutely will be no more extensions. It will be a no deal Brexit on October 31 if this deal is not approved UNAMENDED, if that is not their message to the UK then the EU is playing Johnson and manipulating the remainers. They know this as well as anyone so I expect them to make sure that this message is received by the UK public on Sunday.
This appears to be Remain’s last gasp. They will approve the deal later this week, but they want to try to damage Johnson on the way to doing so. I think Johnson just defies the Benn Bill by not signing the letter and publicly disavowing it.
Again, if Remainers want to stop Brexit, they need to do a VoNC as an absolutely minumum requirement, and if one believes the statements by France and Poland, an extension isn’t going to be granted anyway. So, the actual method of stopping Brexit on the 31st is to revoke Article 50. So, if you are Remainer, revoke Article 50 or shut the fuck up.
That would be interesting, a vote to revoke Article 50, then a GE and watch as the GE becomes a proxy second referendum on Brexit. And the entire process of Brexit starts from scratch, somehow I doubt the EU will go for that.
Good call. That’s exactly what Johnson did.
What’s clear is the utter contempt for democracy. And that politicians are deliberately tearing apart the last shred of confidence in their capability to serve the people who they’re supposed to serve.
Hear me now, whenever this is over, however this ends, we will never forget how you betrayed the people and showed us your contempt.
THIS! This is exactly why I hate the parliamentary system and with all our faults I hope the US retains a two party system where politicians still have at least some accountability to constituents rather than a party telling a population “this is our position and you will like it, or you can get stuffed.”