Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will respond in kind to Trump’s tariffs.
Canada Has Counter-Tariffs Ready
Bloomberg reports Canada Has Counter-Tariffs Ready If Trump Launches Trade War, Trudeau Says
Speaking on MSNBC’s Inside With Jen Psaki, the outgoing Canadian prime minister said his government isn’t looking for a trade fight with the new administration but will have to retaliate if the US puts tariffs on Canadian products.
Canada buys more US-made goods than any other country, according to US Commerce Department export data — about $320 billion in the first 11 months of last year. The US trade deficit on goods with Canada was $55 billion during that period.
“As we did last time, we are ready to respond with tariffs as necessary,” Trudeau said. “We are the number one export partner of about 35 different US states and anything that thickens the border between us ends up costing American citizens and American jobs.” On a per-capita basis, Canada buys far more from the US than the US buys from Canada.
This time, Trump has said he’s considering broad 25% tariffs against items from Mexico and Canada. One draft retaliation plan circulating within the Canadian government would affect almost every category of products imported by Canada from the US, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 10.
More than half of US crude imports come from Canada, most of it from Alberta. Asked whether Canada could curb energy supplies to the US, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told CTV News: “Everything is on the table.”
The lead chart shows Canada has the means to respond in kind.
Trump has an advantage given Trudeau’s resignation and an election in October potentially making a concerted response difficult.
However, I can’t shake the feeling that Trump understands there would be serious repercussions to illegally breaking the USMCA treaty crafted by him and signed off by the US Senate.
No one could possibly believe Trump in any deal if he broke his own deal.
If Trump wants total trade chaos, he can have it. But I remain totally skeptical.
Since USMCA renews in 2026, I find it more likely that Trump goes after China, Vietnam, and the EU first.
China’s Trade Balance Soars to a Record $1 Trillion
Yesterday, I commented China’s Trade Balance Soars to a Record $1 Trillion
If Trump wants a global response on China, it doesn’t help to pick fights with your immediate neighbors.
So, What Country Wants to Be Like Germany Now?
Also consider my December 2024 blast at Germany So, What Country Wants to Be Like Germany Now?
The collapse of Germany shocks many. But I have been discussing why this was inevitable for over a decade.
Export mercantilism eventually blows up.
Germany and China are finding that out now. Yet, both want to double down on policies that caused the stress.
For what to do about this, please consider Trump’s New Tariff Advisor and Advice for Advisors
We will soon find out, but I am calling a bluff on Canada and Mexico. But Trump is very serious about China.
– President Trump will place Americas first tariff, with Trump as President, “Expected”on Saturday against Mexico and Canada.
> We certainly don’t have all the oil, in the form that we need it in, and we do buy it from Canada, and others too, so a rise in cost could be in play.
> Mr. Trump, most certainly, would love the U.S. to not import anything at all, but that’s just not possible.
– Take the U.S. auto industry, which is really a North American industry because supply chains in the three countries are highly integrated. In 2024 Canada supplied almost 13% of U.S. imports of auto parts and Mexico nearly 42%. Industry experts say a vehicle made on the continent goes back and forth across borders a half dozen times or more.
> So Everybody Loses? Won’t happen then, in this manner. It’s a let’s see what this conjures up speak.
– Tariffs Loom Saturday Perhaps, Some Details Missing.
> “Missing Details” means we really don’t know anything concrete yet, so we shouldn’t speculate, on an ongoing process, until we know much more, and then we can, and have it be truly relative (Devil is In The…).
– The U.S. will impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, copper, oil and gas imports as soon as mid-February, President Trump said Friday.
> Did He say Exactly What & Exactly When Specifically by product/service? If not then it’s speculation at best, as to what might happen and when.
– “That’ll happen fairly soon,” Trump told reporters.
> Could be next year or next week?
– A representative for the European Union didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
> Maybe because there was nothing to actually respond to?
Justy Trombone-Castro should focus on getting Kamala Harris elected rather than focusing on battles he can’t win.
Make my day.
If Canada doesn’t shut up, we should invade.
Trump wants trade wars. Not shooting wars. Though one sometimes leads to the other.
Canada is not going to shut up. And neither is Trump. And no matter how much they go along with tightening their border, Trump will put tariffs on them. Because he wants to.
So get ready for a tariff war with just about everyone. Because that’s what Trump wants.
It’s a great real world experiment. Let’s all watch and see how it works out.
It should be understood that the tariff counter-tariff talk was made by the clown (a polite term) that has resigned to avoid ouster by his own party. The party is also going down in the upcoming elections.
The only statements that matter are those of the new conservative government.
Indeed Trudeau worst PM in history.
Looks like Hamas and Israel have come to an agreement. The Trump push for peace works again!
Peace at last ephemeral but peace one more time.truth they got tired for now and trump been the peacemaker I think Biden is in charge ,what trump wants is chaos that is his brand don’t forget that.
Like to examine the contrast in thinking between incoming Trump administration and what has come before.
Trump says his will be an administration based upon common sense. Tariff application will fall under that criteria. To disregard this basic premise is disingenuous or it lacks a full view of what is to come.
Would contrast that observation with what the poster child of what has come before, Gavin Newsome. Who believes that LA #2 is just a computer click away.
A portion of LA has just gone up in flames. More of it will probably burn as well with forecast-ed return of Santa Anna winds.
To rebuild a city which burned from lack of Fire fighting capacity, lack of water availability in hydrants, lack of pre-fire land management, will take more then a few words.
Without insurance availability and Bank mortgage issuance, it is not possible to create LA #2.
Unless State of California makes an large observable commitment to building fire fighting infrastructure there will not be any Business willing to put funds on the line for a rebuild. Water at the roadside in Hydrants requires massive commitment to a statewide water distribution concept.
Choosing commonsense as a guidepost is evident from new administration. It is evident in current ongoing interview of Defense Secretary Hegseth presentation.
It is missing completely coming from mouth of Newsome who if California is lucky will understand the level of his own incompetence and resign before he does more damage.
Tariff application based in commonsense means dealing with real world issues which have arisen out of cross borders Trade.
Are the Midwestern GOP in Congress going to sit back & watch Trump tariff the incoming oil? Really?
Of course they are… descendants of the Common Clay of the New West. Aren’t they adorable? https://x.com/RightWingCope/status/1876377610189668372?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1876377610189668372%7Ctwgr%5E4a6ba31c0abc9b4996cfc71bb493993c1b6383d9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailydot.com%2Fdebug%2Ftrump-driver-crashes-livestream%2F&mx=2
Yep. Let’s put a 25% tariff on all that Canadian oil. After all, just like there were pipelines to Europe from Russia, there are lots of pipelines designed to make parts of the US completely dependent on Canadian oil. The midwest will see big increases in gas and diesel prices.
If you were wondering how the Great Depression started you’ll be living the answer shortly.
Trump is definitely going to change the car portion of the USMCA even if he leaves he leaves the rest of it alone.
At the moment the tariff penalty for importing foreign cars (ie Chinese) is only something like 2.5%. It WAY better to just pay that 2.5% and import a Chinese car and sell it in America rather than build it here because we know those Chinese EV’s are being made for 20K or less and 2.5% of that is no where close to what US made EV’s cost.
Thus that tariff penalty is going to be changed.
You can’t buy a car made in China and import it to the US via Canada. That loophole has been closed a while now.
That’s not what’s being done.
What they are doing is what BYD is trying to do in Mexico. Assemble the cars there but essentially make them in China. They are also skirting the minimum salary rules and other parts of the agreement. The penalty is a pittance. Skip down to the headline ‘Why Trump is so Mad’ to see the details. This loophole is going to get closed.
https://driving.ca/column/motor-mouth/american-u-s-election-canadian-auto-industry-trump-musk-usmca
I thought we had a perfectly negotiated trade treaty with Canada that was made by the former president. I don’t understand why President Musk is reneging on a deal so expertly negotiated previously?
Enjoy the wilderness.
That’s only because you don’t understand 10 dimensional chess. Nor do you understand my real aim, which is to become the first trillionaire in history on the backs of the American people.
When your job is taken by an immigrant …
The proles will suffer mightily, but that’s a sacrifice I am willing to make.
How the U.S. could in fact make Canada an American territoryhttps://theconversation.com/is-capitalism-falling-out-of-favor-we-analyzed-400-000-news-stories-to-find-out-247086
Sadly, the Unites States population could not bear the time it would take to become once again a net positive export producer.
Talk is cheap, action is unbearable.
Nobody that matters will suffer.
Sounds like what Briben said to his donors – that nothing will fundamentally change.
Trump said that he would put tariffs on Canada and Mexico if they refused to police their borders to keep illegal immigrants from crossing into the US. Am I to assume that Canada would choose to have 30% tariffs put on them instead of just putting more cops on their southern border? If so then the Canadians are dumber than I thought.
The fentanyl & illegal immigration ruse was just a red herring.
Trump just wants to put tariffs on. He doesn’t call himself Tariff Man for nothing.
Oh I think he just wants Canada to secure their side of the border and gave them a good incentive to do that.
Canada has already said they would be increasing border security to try to stop the flow of drugs and guns from the US to Canada. Very little of those things go in the other direction.
And Canada accounts for less than 1% of illegal immigrants heading to the US. So that’s another non-issue.
Greg is correct. Trump “wants”
tariffs on Canada.
Here is what he said recently:
“For far too long, we have relied on taxing our Great People using the Internal Revenue Service (IRS),” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
“Through soft and pathetically weak Trade agreements, the American Economy has delivered growth and prosperity to the World, while taxing ourselves,” Trump wrote.
“It is time for that to change. I am today announcing that I will create the EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE to collect our Tariffs, Duties, and all Revenue that come from Foreign sources,” he wrote.
“We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fair share!”
I don’t think it will matter what Canada does to appease him. He wants a trade war. And he is going to get one.
What a great show! This is going to be fun to watch. Get ready for big price increases for energy: gas, diesel, fuel oil, electricity etc.
Trump is going to put tariffs on Canada and get Mexico to pay for them. That’s how good he is.
No one believes Trump now on anything he says!
Build the wall? Make Mexico pay for it?
Cut taxes on tips?
Cut taxes on social security?
Mass deportations?
End all wars?
End inflation?
MAGA? lol.
What Trump voters want is a pyromaniac that will burn everything down so expect chaos. Just read the comments here from most people wanting to bring it all crashing down.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/11/there-are-a-lot-of-bitter-people-here-im-one-of-them-rust-belt-voters-on-why-they-backed-trump-again-despite-his-broken-promises
Few expect Trump to fix everything or believe him when he says he will. What they do believe is that the system is broken and corrupt, just as Trump says it is, and that a candidate who promises to tear it down and start again might just be on to something.
My army of stupids is immune from reason and fact. You’re wasting your time.
Bad idea. It’s stupid to shoot yourself in the foot when you see neighbors shoot themselves in the foot. But that’s the logic of trade (and other) wars.
That’s ok with me. It’s a minor tax. The US was better off when we had more import taxes and less domestic taxes.
Problem with that mindset is you won’t see a corresponding decrease in domestic taxes.
Nothing more permanent than a temporary tax.
The Trump team is floating an idea to raise tariffs by a couple of percent each month, until all our trading partners come to the table and concede to Trump’s demands, whatever they may be.
Regarding trade with Canada, and oil, in particular:
The premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, recently met Trump in Mar-A-Lago and said that she is convinced that he will place tariffs on Canadian oil. And we need Canadian oil.
Why do we need Canadian oil when we produce so much oil ourselves?
The US produces 13.5 mbpd of oil: 3.5 mbpd of this is conventional heavy oil and 10 mbpd is light shale oil. Our refineries were all built prior to 1980 and were only designed to use heavy oil. As our conventional heavy oil production dropped from 10 mbpd in 1970 to 3.5 mbpd today, we had to import heavy oil from Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico to make up the difference.
On the plus side, our production of light shale oil has grown from 0 in 2008 to 10 mbpd today. Unfortunately, our refiners can only use a small portion of this light oil by blending some of it with the heavy oil we import. The result is that in 2023 we imported an average of 8.5 mbpd of heavy oil and exported 10.1 mbpd of mostly light shale oil.
Putting a tariff on Canadian heavy oil will not spur production of US heavy oil. We are producing less heavy oil every year as our fields deplete. But we are producing more light oil each year. Too bad we can’t actually use much of it ourselves.
Putting a tariff on Canadian oil will only result in higher feedstock prices for US refiners, and higher prices for US consumers for gas, diesel, fuel oil etc.
As a result, I did not think that Trump would put tariffs on Canadian oil. However, it “appears” that he will.
We live in interesting times. I am enjoying the show.
I am going to enjoy the profits. Still holding SPY puts and picked up more TLT for when the chaos comes. There’s always a money train at the station.
It’s important to remain nimble. Things can change very quickly these days. I am enjoying and profiting from the volatility.
Can’t US refineries modify their process to refine light oil? Would that be unjustifiably costly? Serious questions
Refineries “can” be retrofitted to process more light shale oil. The fact that they haven’t been, would indicate that the refiners don’t consider it economic. In addition, light shale oil puts other stresses on our existing oil infrastructure. Here is a good article that discusses some of the challenges of using light shale oil in the US.
https://www.worldoil.com/uploadedfiles/datahub/37336_new%20shale_final.031213.pdf
The article talks about how the industry has been attempting to use more shale oil every year, and some of the challenges it presents.
Here is an article from August, where US refiners were concerned that oil supply from Canada would be reduced because of Trudeau’s carbon policies.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-US-Refiners-Are-Worried-About-Canadas-New-Oil-Policy.html#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20many%20U.S.%20refineries,found%20in%20Canada's%20oil%20sands.
Europe came begging for canadian gas and oil and the prissy prince of ottawa showed them the door. the conservative government, elected at the next election, will be inviting them back to the table. canadian oil and gas will be sold to elsewhere than to the usa
Will his base turn on him if inflation goes up instead of the promised down? I predict that without obvious “persecutors” to play the victim of, Trump will have to either start throwing bodies overboard (rerun of his first admin) or, more likely, play even more golf. The non-Maga electorate will be open to some semblance of reason. First rule of hole-escapism: stop digging. Don’t know if we’re there yet.
His base is too stupid to turn on him. That’s why he was such a bargain.
Not going to be Trudeau’s decision so kind of a moot point.
The Liberals are in charge until at least the next election. Trudeau is merely the current leader. You think any leader is going to simply accept sanctions – even with a change in government?
Maybe so but if they do something which ends up hurting Canada more then what Trudeau already has managed, they will get cancelled as a Political force for a long time.
When Donald Trump speaks people listen, to paraphrase an old advertising add.
Trump does know how to cut a deal that works for all parties.
At the moment parliament is in recess until the Liberals elect a new leader. So it’s unlikely they can make a concerted response to tariffs until the leadership issue is decided which is going to take a few months time.
The liberals have trashed the Canadian economy.
I have always wondered why China hasn’t done this already and didn’t stop exports of rare earths in Trump’s last presidency
His rhetoric is uglier this time. You reap what you sow.
Here comes INFLATION . . .
INFLATIONER
Where you been the last months, bro?