After dismissing such threats as bluffs, I now wonder if Trump might be stupid enough to do what he says.
Trump on 25 Percent Tariffs
In a post-inauguration talk with reporters Trump said “We’re thinking in terms of 25% (tariffs) on Mexico and Canada because they’re allowing a vast number of people” to cross the border.
“Canada Also a Very Bad Abuser”
Implied Irony
The idea that Canada is a vast abuser of illegal border crossings is ridiculous. But assume it’s true.
If so, the implied irony is Trump will fail to close the border.
Moreover, the immigration charge has nothing to do with the the “best in history” USMCA trade deal that he negotiated.
Finally, Trump has discussed imposing tariffs on China but has now ordered federal agencies to study the potential impacts before making a decision.
Imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico but not China is more than a bit illogical for obvious reasons.
Canadian and Mexican Response
The Canadian foreign minister said Canada is working on preparing a response and working on a plan of retaliation. “Our county is absolutely ready to respond.”
Retaliation is very easy. All Canada has to do is block crude exports and minerals.
A response from Mexico is also easy. Mexico can block medical exports to the US.
That would stop most US medical operations cold. Most surgical kits come from Mexico.
US Exports and Imports
Mexico can easily match the US on tariffs.
Trump is upping the rhetoric on Mexico, Canada, and China on top of previous tariff threats. Who will be hardest hit?
Huge Potential Trade Disruptions
- Canada and Mexico can easily shut down US vehicle manufacturing.
- Canada can disrupt US refining causing the price of gasoline to soar.
- Mexico can disrupt US medical operations.
Canadian Crude
The US produces 13.5 mbpd of oil: 3.5 mbpd of this is conventional heavy oil and 10 mbpd is light shale oil. Our refineries were all built prior to 1980 and were only designed to use heavy oil. As our conventional heavy oil production dropped from 10 mbpd in 1970 to 3.5 mbpd today, we had to import heavy oil from Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico to make up the difference.
Putting a tariff on Canadian heavy oil will not spur production of US heavy oil. We are producing less heavy oil every year as our fields deplete. But we are producing more light oil each year. Too bad we can’t actually use much of it ourselves.
Putting a tariff on Canadian oil will only result in higher feedstock prices for US refiners, and higher prices for US consumers for gas, diesel, fuel oil etc.
The above oil comments from Mish reader PapaDave.
Canada can respond to US tariffs with a huge export tax on Crude.
A mere shutoff of $22 billion in medical kits from Mexico would disable US medical operations instantly.
Breaking a Treaty
Breaking a signed treaty, overwhelmingly passed by the Senate, and one that he negotiated would not only be stupid, it would be unconstitutional.
But who has a right to sue and how long would it take?
If I was a foreign leader, I would be openly saying “Trump cannot be trusted”
Related Posts
November 27, 2024: What Industries Will Suffer the Most Under Trump’s Plan to “Make Tariff’s Great Again”?
Trump is upping the rhetoric on Mexico, Canada, and China on top of previous tariff threats. Who will be hardest hit?
January 14, 2025: Canada Says It Will Match US Tariffs If Trump Launches Trade War
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will respond in kind to Trump’s tariffs.
January 18, 2025: The US Trade Deficit with China is Understated by as Much as 30 Percent
Normal trade math does not add up. US imports and China exports are not in sync.
If Trump is indeed stupid enough to break his own USMCA deal, not a single country could ever trust entering a deal with Trump.
My basic instinct has been “Trump cannot possibly be that stupid.” But if he is, Trump’s Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessent, will talk him out of it.
I am now wondering if I am wrong. Of course, it could still be a bluff after all. We find out on February 1.
I suppose the best way forward is for Mexico and Canada to stroke Trump’s ego by pledging something trivial while moaning what a hard bargainer Trump is.
If Canada and Mexico stroke Trump’s ego enough, we might avoid a very destructive global trade war.
Canada reported core retail sales fell .7%
Let us see if Trudeau wants to add in a trade fight with US because of illegal immigration and Drug smuggling, because you know he is Justin Trudeau.
Canada does NOT want a trade war with the US. They would be hurt far more than we would.
The question is, why does Trump want a trade war with Canada? It’s not for any of the reasons he keeps mentioning. Drugs and guns don’t flow from Canada to the US. They flow the other way.
The number of illegal immigrants coming from Canada is almost nothing (roughly 1% of the total).
It’s not because they abuse us on trade. Our trade with them is pretty even, thanks to that best-ever trade deal that Trump crows about. If you don’t count their oil (which we need), we actually run a large trade surplus with Canada.
If Trump wants to renegotiate his best-ever trade deal with Canada, why doesn’t he just say so? Why threaten tariffs first?
Trump today took out the WEF in his televised speech.
They got spanked hard.
Trump is leading the movement back to sanity from destruction they have wrought.
America first is growing into the restoration of Nation State around this globe.
Would suggest you listen to Argentina’s Milei address to WEF forum. He laid the intellectual foundation comparing return to principles which advanced Humanity from poverty under industrial revolution. Compared to where the global intelligentsia has been imposing their authoritarian view upon all peoples has lead to decline of living standards and current malaise.
Trump is going after anyone who is in opposition to a rebirth of what made Western civilization prosper. Tariff is a weapon and Trump is not shy about using it.
United states is moving on its own towards a return to policies which created prosperity in its past.
The Globalists with their attempts to subjugate Nation State to the will of an international Authority is finished.
Trudeau remains a WEF puppet. If Canada chooses a different way then Trudeau and what he represents, then US and Canada will have much in common again.
As I have posted Trudeau has a stark decision to make, stick with WEF and disappear or work with US and restore some normality in affairs of Nations.
That Trump has to even threaten use of Tariff against our Northern neighbor to deal with migrants and drugs, demonstrates just how deep Globalist disease has gotten entrenched in N. America.
“That Trump has to even threaten use of Tariff against our Northern neighbor to deal with migrants and drugs, demonstrates just how deep Globalist disease has gotten entrenched in N. America.”
Nope. That is a non-issue. There is no reason to threaten Canada over an imaginary problem. The fact that you keep repeating such nonsense, reveals how little you understand.
In your mind this may be an imaginary problem but the people of Canada are going to be correcting Trudeau and his party in short order.
If Trudeau and what he represents was doing so wonderfully in Canada then why would he step down as Party leader and not run for office once again?
Why should I care about Trudeau? He will be gone soon and the Conservatives will be in charge. So what.
If the Conservatives were already in charge in Canada, you would still be repeating the same nonsense about imaginary problems.
USMC is a Free trade agreement in N. America.
Was unaware that also included Trafficking of illegal migrants and drugs like Fentanyl.
on a side note for all those Green new dealers out there.
Here is an absolute beauty
Wind Farm off coast of New Jersey.
200 units at 1,000 feet tall, 9 miles off shore.
Won’t that be Lovely.
https://www.savelbi.org/_files/ugd/a85a2b_ea578a317854424389201d397b96325e.pdf
The big take away is this: Americans cannot be trusted. Breaking an agreement with their closest neighbours for no factually coherent reason. They’ll also break their support of the Ukraine as Trump will help Putin make Russia great again. Canada just needs to become a belligerent neighbour and welcome China – get rid of the derelict American car – ban them outright from Canada. When America is willing to make a foe out of Canada, the message to the rest of the world is clear – Americans cannot be trusted – let the American decline continue.
If Trump does what he says on Feb 1, you are correct
This is not the same as the Paris accord which was never signed
Good point on the Paris accord. Thx.
“The big take away is this: Americans cannot be trusted. Breaking an agreement with their closest neighbors for no factually coherent reason.”
Worst statement of 2025 thus far. There are 12M+ good, factual reasons to put this sort of pressure primarily on Mexico. In case you hadn’t noticed, illegals have been coming through Canada now for more than 18 months. And Trump is simply doing everything he can to ensure conservatives come into power in Canada. Canada is one of the most liberal countries on the planet, and they sit right at our northern border. It’s in our national interest to foster a populist movement in Canada & Europe. Populism is the way of the future, not globalism.
We’ve arrived at the point where every country has to choose between US & China.
Legit.
Trump has played no role in the conservative rise in Canada. The dislike of the Liberals by Canadians has taken place over the past 18 months per the national polling. Canada is definitely liberal on social issues – but it was America that gifted us and the western world with their poisonous LIBERAL WOKE values and politics.
Well his is playing a big roll now, Anthony!
Get used to it!
if goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will –Frédéric Bastiat
In the extreme cases, you would be correct in my view. If Ukraine “Needed” something else from Ukraine, they would have taken it!
They need water access and they got that. They certainly don’t need vast amounts of wasteland to take care off, so they have not taken much land at all. In fact, IMO Russia got what they wanted and needed.
Trump realized this, and knew a “Peace Plan” was definitely in reach, so he went for it, and Russia of course bit. They did because IMO they were told they could Keep Crimea, but in the negotiations for Peace, so understand this going in. All prisoners released, and troops pulled back, and a line drawn in the sand for moving forward.
Nicely Done Trump!
Homan revealed that there were 766 apprehensions in past 24 hours of illegals at Southern Border compared with 12,000/day under Biden.
Mainstream news said it could not be controlled not so long ago.
Someone Lied.
Anyone with a thinking Brain is going What the Hell.
By the way anyone see any Drones along the East coast since Jan 20 ?
Must be a Miracle.
39 members of Mexican Mafia arrested in San Diego
I think Biden sent them to Ukraine?
Meanwhile, Javier Milei, in Argentina has announced that he wants Free trade with the world, including the US. He wants to take Argentina to a Golden age of Free Trade.
Winning!
I can assure you that Mexico would not stop medical exports to the US that result in the death of Americans. That would be like declaring war on the US and telling the world that you are a pariah and you do not cherish human lives.
How much is illegal immigration and fentanyl costing the U.S.?
You’re looking at cost as if it’s a single line on a spreadsheet. There are other costs involved that will balance out the
We are paying billions upon billions in benefits, healthcare, transportation, education and legal services for a problem that shouldn’t exist.
Why are vehicles destined for the American market being made in Canada and Mexico anyway? Please spare me the American labor force doesn’t want work trope. The same goes for the H1B issue as well. We’re not importing “elite technical” people on H1B visas, we’re strip mining American labor to satisfy Wall Street’s insatiable desire for positive quarterly results. The long term benefits simply aren’t there.
I hate to break it to you but there is no pain-free solution to be had. The U.S Treasury is being looted by special interests and crooked politicians.(including foreign governments)
Does anyone really believe Biden is an anomaly? The difference with Biden is he didn’t know how to properly layer his ill-gotten gains because he’s always been a crappy lawyer who wouldn’t have made it past county council in a more populous state.
He should have taken lessons from the Bush’s the Clintons and the Obama’s and stood up a proper tax dodging foundation first.
Free trade shouldn’t have to come at our expense! America First!
Stopping free trade will only make things worse for all. Tariffs will only strengthen trade with other regions.North America should be trading and working like a cooperative and strengthening the region. All that’s going to happen is it will destroy the auto industry. This plays into the Chinese, who will remain the world’s factory.
Suppy chains for Automotive were planned around NAFTA. Without it, things will collapse very quickly.
Only a stooge would break what is not broken.
China will not remain “the worlds factory” for long – demographically China is about to run into the unintended result of the 2 child policy- there will be 100,000,000 less people of working age in China over next decade – ONE HUNDRED MILLION ! Comp about 1/3 pop of the USA – obvi less workers screws the cheep labor thing then you get a housing mkt already over capacity losing it’s replacement buyers and throw in a reverse pyramid of young people buried under the weight of an aging population…
using Japan as ex that doesn’t seem to work out to well – then again with AI and robots right around the corner who is going to need workers anyway ? So maybe the Chinese knew all along they needed to reduce their working age population to prepare for the era of idle humans? Idle humans eventually become a problem for those in power… maybe 100 million less works over next ten years will be a benefit for the China and the CCP ??? Hmmmm…
We can make our own maple syrup.
But we can’t make more heavy oil.
That’s the crux of the matter now isn’t it. Unless or until we build new plants that can use light oil, then we’re beholden to others.
Having been this ways for many years says something about our Leadership now doesn’t it? Think of all the $$$ sent to other countries to build out their infrastructure, while we stay dependent on others (aren’t some of them, the ones we helped?) for ours.
Maybe the next $100 Million we could Keep For The U.S. and start building out our Electric Grid, infrastructure needed everywhere (Bridges especially I think?), and some “Advanced” Technologies we could use for Presidential Details and the like, as we obviously need a massive upgrade to safety and security there, but I digress.
As PapaDave has mentioned previously, there are not enough remaining shale oil reserves in the US, to justify the costs of building light-oil refineries.
Yes. That is an issue. Shale oil production will peak in a few years, and begin a decline, before we can build new refineries that can handle it. I don’t know the precise economics of it, but I don’t see any new proposals by businesses that think it is worth the investment.
Building new refineries isn’t about political leadership. It’s about business investment decisions. Can we profit enough to justify the investment? The answer, apparently, is no. Because we haven’t built a brand new refinery since 1980.
The same goes for our electricity grid.
If you want government to get involved, to provide incentives to business to build some new refineries, that’s fine with me. But there are many here who don’t want any government involvement at all.
NIMBY might have been a small issue for building refineries …
Of course. That is always one part of the equation. Along with a hundred other issues. Which is all part of the calculation that businesses make when making investment decisions.
None of this can possibly be resolved as long as Donald thinks that he can
To solve a problem, you need to define it correctly & realistically.
If you think Russia is yearning for a ceasefire because it is suffering economically and taking huge casualties, you have it backwards: Europe is suffering economically and NATO[Ukraine] is taking disproportionate casualties.
The Donald could easily solve the problem with sanctioned heavy oil (Venezuela, Mexico, Canada) by importing Russian crude and diesel: genius. The US has in fact been importing Russian distillate & uranium despite all the sanctions. Only the Euro vassals were acting against their own interests.
Canada should jump the gun and impose sanctions on US imports because of the flow of immigrants and drugs into Canada, turning the table on Donald. I haven’t seen reliable figures, but my gut tells me the net outflow is from the US northward.
Nope. The US Midwest PADD2 refinery region gets all its oil from Canada via pipelines. Over 3 million barrels per day go to that region alone from Canada. How are you going to get Russian oil to those refineries in the central US? Are you going to ship it to our coasts and then truck it over a thousand miles to the midwest? 3 million barrels per day! Not going to happen. And it would take years to build new pipelines to the coast from the Midwest.
In addition, our refineries pay a discounted price for that Canadian oil; currently $64/bbl. Russian Ural oil traditionally traded at close to Brent prices: currently $79. Plus the extra cost of transport by ship and truck.
Sorry. It’s not “genius”.
Politically it is.
With Trump and US politics we’re not in the real world, are we?
It’s all rhetorical.
And you don’t need crude if you are importing distillates.
Trump may not be in the real world, as you say. However, in the real world, the Midwest refineries require oil. No oil for those refineries? No gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, etc. And you think we can get all that from Russia? Good luck with that.
Canada is a proud nation. Canadians will go out of their way to help and support those that need it. Much like the schoolyard bully, the Maga nation is going out of it’s way to throw its weight around to make themselves feel like demigods. Canadians have a history of standing up to bullies. Canadians are willing to sacrifice to fight for what they believe in.
Yes. Canada won’t take this without fighting back. Unfortunately for them, this fight will hurt them far more than it will hurt us.
Our two countries do about $1 trillion in cross border trade. Let’s guess that a trade war cuts it in half to $500 billion. That is over 20% of Canada’s GDP, while it is only 2% of US GDP.
The longer a trade war lasts, the more Canada will lose. If a trade war begins, they would be wise to immediately stop all exports of oil, gas, electricity, uranium, potash, lumber etc to the US. Within days, without electricity, and oil, some Americans would be freezing in the dark during the present harsh winter. And they would be screaming at Trump to stop the stupidity.
We’d all be calling our Congresspeople 🙂
Yep. No one is happy when the lights go out.
whats the most important thing we get from Mexico? Oil? Fentanlt?(see China below)
whats the most important thing we get from Canada? Oil
Whats the most profitable for them item China sends us, Fentanyl?
Well if they don’t do their part in closing their side of the border to prevent illegal immigrants from coming in then I am for it. I have had enough of of Mexico encouraging and aiding them to crash our border. Canada is also guilty in that in a polite way but to a lesser extent but still guilty. This is a vital interest for us and I am tired of it being negotiated away by every administration before this one.
How lovely, and unsurprising
Also stupid and hypocritical.
Trump negotiated USMCA
As I stated, only a few of us give a damn about the Constitution. The rest of you are case-by-case hypocrites who moan about Biden’s student aid but not Trump (or vice versa)
So please elaborate where Trump has violated the US Constitution.
I already did – but I stated IF he breaks the treaty.
The constitution gives the Senate the right to approve treaties.
Trump will be taking that right away, IF he does what he says.
The question is will he do what he says.
Mexico is very guilty. Canada is not. We ship our drugs and guns to Canada. Not the other way around. And while a few illegal immigrants come to the US from Canada, it is only around 1% of the total. You are clueless.
IIRC Canada now has some huge Fentanyl labs started up by some of those Chinese immigrants to Canada. I also believe that there is a lot of money laundering going on and through Canada as a result.
Yep. As Canada has reduced the flow of drugs from the US, organized crime in Canada has been forced to set up their own production facilities.
And if Trump is successful in stopping the flow of ALL drugs into the US, organized crime in the US will set up even more labs to produce more of their own.
Or do you think that Trump will be able to stop all criminal activity and drug use as well?
You have mentioned several things amongst your post here, and you mention something many completely disregard, or don’t understand. “Unintended Consequences” or as some say, an equal playing field arises.
So we do A, and Canada does B Etc. The point being, that a tit for tat gets us nowhere moving forward, so what’s the point? Sit down like Adults and make a deal that’s equal, so to speak, for both parties.
If we desire Peace, use the “KISS Theory”, and be “Fair” and it will get done. Watch Trump do just that!!!
I completely agree. Sit down like adults and negotiate a new trade deal. But I haven’t heard Trump say that. Have you?
According to Trump, he already negotiated the “best trade deal in history” with Canada and Mexico. Are you saying that he did NOT achieve fair trade in his amazing deal?
And if Trump wants to renegotiate his best-ever trade deal, why doesn’t he just say he wants to renegotiate, like an Adult? Why does he have to threaten his trade partners with Tariffs, when he could just say; “We need to renegotiate”?
And he hasn’t said what parts of his amazing deal are unfair to the US. Do you know what parts he wants to renegotiate? I haven’t heard him say what is unfair about his best-ever deal. All I see is we are threatening tariffs first, without even asking to renegotiate.
Why aren’t you taking responsibility for what flows into your own country? The Canadian problem at the border is barely a pimple on the butt of a fly. Canadians though contend with spending huge amounts of money trying to step the flow of guns , drugs and illegals coming INTO Canada.
Jim is correct
The market seems awfully sanguine about this possibility given we are near all time bubbleicious highs.
They know about the Golden Age
Ho about 25% or more tariff on India? Let’s actually make things in the USA
Diversify with the sugar islands: PR. Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.
isnt Cuba outsourcing their sugar production now? Nothing like a communist economy for ya
When Castro – the Fidel – the great one, praised by the current Mayor of LA, was in power one of the major Cuban exports was military personnel to other countries.
Don’t forget that god spoke to the fearless leader of the world a new era “not “the curtain is coming down.next month at the latest.
You’re just wondering now if Trump might be stupid? Don’t worry, it will lead to a golden age just like Brexit led to a golden age for Britain.
I did see a CNBC flash a headline that said, “Trump threatens Putin with sanctions if he doesn’t end war in Ukraine.” Lol.
Got SPY PUTS?
Does Putin have spies?
Well we know that you are stupid.
Trump not so much as we ca compare him to you and his accomplishments are quite awesome.
Threats are merely what trump considers to be a bargaining tool.
Promises made promises kept is his motto.
If he promised Tariff’s for not dealing with a serious issue then that is what will happen.
The Time of sending another strongly worded letter followed up with another strongly worded letter are over.
Promise has been made and Trump has in place the means to carry out that promise.
If Canada and Mexico wish to avoid confrontation then they should respond in good faith with State Department overtures.
Myself I hope it does not take A10 Warthogs close air support for a Delta force operation in Mexican airspace to deal with Cartels.
Governments of Canada and Mexico can make that call is Trump a Serious person?
It’s as though you weren’t sentient from 2016 – 2020.
It took a Biden regime to get people to understand just how close to collapse this Nation was.
Myself I wrote a lengthy note to all Family members explaining about WEF and Global elites and how they had no regard for our Nations Borders, back in first Trump administration. It was obvious to me then what was occurring.
Not a single one could grasp just how dire things were headed.
It took a Joe Biden, worst President in my Lifetime with all his corruption and Brain dead actions to at last wake up a few.
This is now common knowledge and what drove last election results.
Momentum has shifted and will shift more.
Even in California, took a fire of size to understand how out of touch Progressive Left is with real Life.
Still there are the holdouts who rather believe a Lie because Truth too hard to handle.
Will not stop what is coming.
More entertainment for the world plenty of noise and platitudes there is past 4 years of the same nonsense that is precedent for the ones on the peanut gallery the ones that created the mess are going to fix it, sure thing just wait and see get a chair it’s going to be a long wait.
Trump was elected 50 years too late.
Globalization now reigns and those who produce have debtor nations by the noose.
Now bow to your master: D.E.B.T.
…. or, and I’m just spitballing here…. cash is king.
Globalization is over but some haven’t realized it yet.
Really? I was not aware of that. Since Global trade between all countries is still $32 trillion per year.
Of course there will always be global trade, but the character and flows will change.
The just in time manufacturing processes started in Japan’s domestic market and perverted in the international trade sphere will end along with concentration of sourcing.
Yep. Global trade is adjusting, which is adding to costs. But it’s not disappearing.
The promised land is close , but it’s Babylon.
Keep em guessing. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. Ha ha ha.
Is Trump bound and determined to disrupt economies all around the world, much as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 did? It will be a lose-lose policy for all concerned.
I thought inflation has already done that.
Hi Mish.
It has become clear to me that Trump “wants” Tariffs. Using drugs and illegal immigrants is just an excuse. So is claiming that Canada “abuses” the US on trade.
Canada is not “exporting” drugs to the US. Actually, it is the other way around. And Canada has already publicly stated that they will spend a lot of money to beef up their border security to appease Trump and to reduce the flow of drugs and guns “from the US to Canada”. A wise move on their part. And one that Trump will ignore until he eventually boasts that he made them do it.
Similarly, the flow of illegal immigrants from Canada to the US is insignificant. And as Canda beefs up their border security, it will reduce the trickle further. This has never been an issue till Trump made it an issue.
Trump is merely using these issues that we have with Mexico and claiming that we also have them with Canada. Because he wants to put Tariffs on them. He seems to believe his own rhetoric. He also seemed to convince Danielle Smith, the Alberta premier, when she performed the ritual pilgrimage to Mar a Lago to kiss the ring.
Trump also likes to claim that Canada is abusing the US on trade to the tune of $200 billion per year. The reality is closer to a $45 billion trade deficit with Canada. Take away Canadian oil imports of $170 billion and we have a $125 billion trade surplus with Canada in all other areas.
https://economics.td.com/ca-canada-us-trade-balance
The reality is that we need that Canadian oil for our refineries. In the US Midwest, there is no alternative. Fortunately, the price of that Canadian oil (WCS) is $13 cheaper per barrel than our own WTI ($77 vs $64), because Canada is too stupid to build more pipelines to take their oil to tidewater, and they are forced to sell it to us at a discount. It would be similarly stupid on our part to put a 25% tariff on this sweet deal.
With a new Conservative prime minister coming to Canada later this year, he may place a priority on building pipelines to tidewater, so Canada can then sell their oil to someone else. And Trump might be the catalyst that causes this. Then we will have to pay full price for Canadian oil.
Very well said as it relates to Canada. I don’t blame Trump one bit for being willing to put tariffs on Canadian imports. It shows he’s serious, because everyone knows Mexico is the real target.
Anyone who expects Trumps to back down may be very disappointed as we enter February.
The precursor to MAGA is America First. Tariffs are an instrument to make America come first. Nobody said it was going to be easy, so time will tell how serious Trump is. Buckle up everyone. Personally, I don’t expect him to blink.
“I don’t blame Trump one bit for being willing to put tariffs on Canadian imports”
I blame him for being an as*hole, willing to break treaties unconstitutionally.
But some people like Trump precisely because he is an as*hole, willing to break the law. And some people liked Biden for the same reason on student loans.
A few of us, admittedly not many, believe in the constitution.
Which treaty did he break unconstitutionally? He has withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement. He also withdrew from the INF treaty, and the Open Skies Agreement with Russia and the Iran Nuclear Deal but they were all done constitutionally so I don’t know what you are referring to.
Trump is threatening to break USMCA
Tariffs beyond what was negotiated would break the treaty.
USMCA in effect until June 2026 as I stated
USMCA passed the Senate 89-10 and signed by Trump
The US Senate never signed off on the Paris Accord – Obama simply stated he would comply with it.
If Trump unilaterally broke other treaties, then I disagree with Trump.
He certainly trashed an agreement with Iran that was working according to Trump’s own Sec of Defense.
The Iran deal was the only major accomplishment of Obama.
Trump trashed it and now Iran is on the verge of nuclear weapons
Has he done it yet? No so he can’t have done something that hasn’t happened in an unconstitutional manner. If he decides to change the treaty of withdraw from it and gets Senate approval then it is legal. The Iran Treaty was highly flawed and didn’t do anything to stop Iran from spreading their influence in the region. Additionally it had sunset provisions that would have allowed them to buy centrifuges and other equipment in 2026. They also got billions and billions in cash. It was a terrible treaty and was made only to give Obama a “win” at something. Since Trump’s Sec of Defense was working for the Democrats already its no wonder that he liked the treaty.
The Paris Accord would never have passed the Senate so they made it an agreement only. Trump dumping kit is constitutional, popular and the right thing to do.
It’s getting really pointless to argue with Mish.
Iran has always been on the verge of nuclear weapons and nothing short of a massive bombing campaign backed up by ground special forces to gather intelligence & mop up was going to stop Iran from getting the bomb. As I’ve said on Mishtalk many times, there’s a very high likelihood they already have them.
Their design has either been validated by or given to them by NK. NK has tested their weapons 6 times, so Iran doesn’t have to test theirs. They can maintain nuclear ambiguity just like Israel does. They’ve had clandestine nuclear sites that the IAEA has never been allowed into. This was the case prior to Obama’s sh!tty JCPOA that did absolutely nothing to stop Iran from getting the bomb [emphasis added]. It’s a known fact that there were parts of Fordow that the IAEA weren’t allowed into back when they were “inspecting” Iran’s compliance to said sh!tty deal. And there would have been others.
Joe F’ing Biden didn’t uphold his constitutional duty to protect America. You can add Mayorkas to that list as well. They let in 12M illegals, including tens of thousands of Chinese CCP, middle eastern terrorist & cartel members who at a moment’s notice can create massive death & destruction on America that would boggle the mind.
Your sitting here acting like Trump wanting to pull out of a freaking trade treaty is an existential threat. What BS as you often say. Just absolutely asinine BS. Mexico is now aligned with China. In fact, one could argue that they are the new China of the western hemisphere. Neither China nor Mexico are our friends. And as the liberals remain in power in Canada, they are not our friends either.
The existential threat is all of these able-bodied men & women who Joe Biden gleefully let into our country. 20-30 teams of 3-5 persons deploying thousands of drones to attack our electrical grid will send us back to the stone ages.
Trust me. I believe in the Constitution, dude!
You can stop that pile of you know what right here and now.
In his first term, I noticed that Trump was wary (maybe even afraid) of foreign governments.
He sees Canada & Mexico, our friendly neighbors, as less “foreign” and easy to hit up for cash.
Interesting that he’s hesitating about China.
What you really need are Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS), just put in an order in for some.
https://tipswatch.com/2025/01/19/for-me-this-weeks-10-year-tips-auction-is-a-must-buy/
If you’re taking Trump at his word, you’re doing it wrong. Again, has there been a collective amnesia that has set in for people who hate Trump? Do you really not recall events from 2016 – 2020?
I don’t hate Trump. I simply look at him as another opportunity to make money.
Since you appear to be an expert, why don’t you tell me if Trump is going to place Tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb 1 as he has implied.
Yes or No? And I will base my upcoming investment decisions on your answer. If you tell me that you don’t know, then you are useless to me. Because I can’t make an investment decision on “I don’t know”.
YES!!! HE’S GOING TO PLACE SAID TARIFFS ON MEXICO & CANADA.
And he will be completely justified in doing so. In just 2.5 days he has started to completely dismantle the anti-American cabal that Joe Biden built. He will go on national TV and make the case that Mexico & Canada aren’t doing enough to secure their borders, especially Mexico. How long these tariffs remain in place is anyone’s guess. But if I were an investor looking to hedge an expected outcome, I wouldn’t short Trump blinking.
Remember, he believes that God spared him to become president. That’s going to remain his modus operandi throughout his final four years.
It’s our border that is full of holes. Why should Mexico care?
They won’t until Trump puts 25% tariffs on everything coming in from Mexico.
With Mexico cut off the flows of drugs and immigrants switches to Canada and we already have seen the increased flow of both south over the border. The present Canadian government response was just adding a few more police to the border but it is only window-dressing. Everyone up there knows it and sees it. The new government coming in is getting a loud and clear message. Hopefully it will act. If not then so be it.
lol! I didn’t know you were Canadian. Which province do you live in?
Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act… the U.S. wind industry, especially manufacturing, has been enjoying a renaissance. … That growth is now in question, as just this week, [Donald] Trump stated that he plans to ensure “no windmills” are built during his term in office.
… Over the long term, a total pause in wind development would have significant impact not only on near-term projects, but on the overall U.S. economy. We estimate that, on average, roughly 50,000 jobs are at risk each year developing and constructing wind projects, manufacturing and transporting their components, in the supply chain, and through consumer spending related impacts.
Additionally, more than $14 billion in annual economic output would be eliminated, reducing federal and state and local tax receipts by more than $1 billion and $500 million, respectively, each year. https://www.fticonsulting.com/insights/articles/gone-with-wind
Trump just held press conference yesterday where it outlined initial 100 billions and as much as 500 Billions total coming into US. This for AI project starting in Texas.
He also said deals to 3 trillions are coming in within weeks.
Windmills are not much of anything. Dead Whales numbers are rising as offshore windmills come on line.
Plus there is environmental costs as piles of spent Turbine blades are being created.
Nantucket Island residents freak when Turbine blades wash up on beaches there.
That FTI consulting link, do you work for them? They have a DEI program. Assuming that’s how you got hired?:
https://www.fticonsulting.com/about/diversity-and-inclusion/diverse-professionals-rotational-program
Great! Now we can have German-level energy costs and German-level deindustrialization all for just a few hundred $ billion in subsidies. Where do I sign?
Real question is Trudeau stupid enough to wreck Canadian economy further just before his party needs to win an election?
Tell the family of the US Border patrol agent shot to death Monday in Vermont that his life was not worth anything because illegals are more important.
So what would it take for Canada to get serious about illegals which is going to be a Big Issue in upcoming election?
Trudeau would have to depart from WEF idiocy which is causing severe strains all over Europe and North America.
Trump is not bluffing and will use his Big stick if needed. Progressives can make their Amen, Amen and Amen speech that everything is peachy and remain in delusion or they can get on board and deal with the humanitarian crisis inflicted upon the world.
In currencies being long Canadian dollar is hurtful but the move will come should Trudeau wake up one morning and say holy shit I done wrong and must change.
would add Marco Rubio made an excellent speech when he entered State Department and laid it all out about US State policy goals.
First diplomatic initiative is dealing with the exact results of US deploying Tariff on Canada and Mexico. How that can be easily avoided with some cooperation between three N. American Nations.
Canada stonewalling is going to be destructive for Canada.
Mexico is going to be more tricky as that also will include terrorist drug Cartels and dealing with them in Human trafficking.
I will correct myself as just came across article that says it was a German National here in US on a Visa who shot the Border agent.
The woman with him he also fired at police, was brought down by return fire and is in the hospital, remains unknown as to origin.
Shooting a personal tragedy for Family of Border Patrol Officer.
Trump being President has no higher obligation then to protect Citizens of US.
On this he will not bend to any Nation or NGO.
Rubio laid it all out in his speech at State Department.
For those who wish to understand what is coming they would benefit from listening to that speech.
The Diplomatic lead will be done by State.
If that fails then Hegseth at Defense will take over when ordered to do so. Hegseth said this very thing at his confirmation hearing.
Trump already moving this along evidenced by firing of Coast guard Commandant and EO about DEI being extinguished.
First comes diplomacy then if necessary comes Lethality.
State Department will be speaking softly under Rubio.
Hegseth will be the Warrior Big Stick getting carried by Trump.
Those in Congress who stand in the way are going to get run over by a Bulldozer.
If necessary US military will invade Mexico and attack the cartels. The Mexican government, military, and police collaborate with cartels. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum should ponder the fate of Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.
China is shipping products to the US through Canada to avoid tariffs. Canada needs to start negotiating with Trump’s team. Unfortunately Trudeau has announced he is resigning and has shut down the government (prorogued). What else can you expect from a trust fund baby who was a student at 5 different universities until he was 35 years old and then decided to go into politics?
Mainly Mexico and Vietnam, but possibly Canada to a minor extent
Turdo prorogued the parliament (for no reason), not the government. If he prorogued the government (his own), he would do the country a favor.
Be careful. PapaD might think you’re from Canada ; )
Wondering, could Trump be using these tariff threats to force Canada and Mexico to discontinue some extremely destructive policies…?
And, are Mexico and Canada allowing vast numbers of illegal aliens, drugs and human trafficking to flow into and through their countries and overwhelm our border security?
And, are these destructive policies also harmful to the citizens of the U.S., Canada and Mexico?
Especially the poor and middle-class?
If the above are true, perhaps Trump has a point.
I wonder..
Canada has severe internal problems from what I’ve read, mainly from allowing far too much immigration. Trudeau tried to scale it back but the damage is done. Lack of work and lack of affordable housing.
In the coming weeks we likely find out just how many of them re-immigrated to the US. The Biden cartel wasn’t going out of the way to inform US citizens about such petty details.
The tariffs would hurt them far more IMO long term. As for Mexico, we use to have a trade surplus with them before NAFTA. We aren’t getting back to that anytime soon but we could absolutely cause havoc to them blocking the flow of illegal aliens and causing a similar situation of lack of jobs and housing.
Short term tariffs would hurt us. I don’t think anyone would disagree. Long term, we are getting better trade deals. I’m not a Trump shill either but I think he’s going to easily prevail on this issue.
At the road crossings of the US/Canada border one stops at the check point for the country one is entering, while driving right past the exit country check point. This does not jive with the Presidents statements,but does tell who is responsible for what.
As far as I know US companies buy what suits them pricewise and qualitywise anywhere they want. They choose to buy Canadian for business reasons I would assume. Tariffs will upset US companies so how does that work, at least in the short term?
Good point Harry. I might add that since 2014 when your passport is scanned entering the one country, that information is shared with the country you’re exiting. So for you Canadian snowbirds, don’t lie to the Canadian border guards when they ask you how long you’ve been in the US. You may not be allowed back to your winter home in Florida when you try to cross next time.
No concerns about how it works: everything is broken per King Chaos the Shit Talker.
Appointed “yes men” will not be talking Trump out of anything: expect unrestrained stupidity.
Fair Warning: “Shit Show – Part Doo” will have no intermission.