Ontario Premier says the U.S. is “desperate” for Canadian energy.
Please note Canada could leverage uranium, potash and critical minerals, says Doug Ford.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford says the flow of Canadian critical minerals, uranium, and potash to the United States could be cut off if President Donald Trump continues to threaten Canada’s economy.
Speaking at the 2025 Toronto Global Forum on Thursday morning, Ford said the U.S. needs Canada as a partner in order to meet growing energy demand, particularly from the data centres needed to fuel rapid adoption of artificial intelligence.
“They’re in desperate need of our energy,” Ford said. “Uranium gets shipped from Saskatchewan over to Port Hope in Ontario, gets refined here, and then gets enriched down in the U.S. They have 94 turbines that rely on Canadian uranium.”
According to the World Nuclear Association, Canada produces about 24 per cent of the world’s uranium, making it the second-largest producer behind Kazakhstan.
Ford also spoke about critical minerals. These include metals like nickel and cobalt, which are widely used in electric vehicle batteries, as well as other rare earth elements for high-tech applications like smartphones, laptops, medical devices, and defence systems.
“We will not send a grain of critical minerals down there as long as we’re under constant attack by President Trump,” Ford said. “’I’d love to send them down to our neighbours, but it’s not going to happen.”
The premier of Canada’s most populous province also noted U.S. reliance on Canadian-produced potash, a key fertilizer used by American farmers.
“Farmers all throughout the U.S. rely on potash coming from Saskatchewan,” he said. “They’d be devastated if you cut them off on potash.”
Joe St. Julian, president of nuclear for AtkinsRéalis, says nuclear is really the only option for meeting the energy needs of AI data centres, given the net-zero commitments common throughout the North American tech industry.
“This is going to continue to drive demand for nuclear, and hopefully new nuclear reactors,” he said on Thursday. “There are 600 that have been built on the planet since the inception of the commercial nuclear industry. Right now, we think 1,000 are needed from here forward.”
US Potash Imports and Dependence
- High import rate: The US relies heavily on imports, with 90% of its needs met through international trade.
- Primary source: Canada is the dominant source, supplying about 85% of US potash imports.
- Other sources: Russia is another significant source of potash for the US.
- Reasons for reliance: Potash deposits are geographically specific, and developing new mines in the US is a time- and cost-intensive process.
Trump is a Real Piece of Work
Fortune reports After Stellantis dumps Canada for $13 billion move to U.S., Ontario premier urges fight back against ‘real piece of work’ Trump
Ontario Premier Doug Ford blamed U.S. President Donald Trump for the company’s decision this week to shift production of the SUV from Brampton, Ontario, to Illinois as part of plan to invest $13 billion to expand its manufacturing capacity in the United States.
The comments come as Canada is negotiating to reduce tariffs. Trump has been urging the Big 3 American automakers to move production to the U.S.
“That guy, President Trump, he’s a real piece of work,” Ford said. “I’m sick and tired of rolling over. We need to fight back.”
Ford said Canada needs to hit back with tariffs if Prime Minister Mark Carney can’t reach a trade deal with Trump.
Ontario Enlists Ronald Reagan Against Trump’s Tariffs
Politico reports Ontario Enlists Ronald Reagan Against Trump’s Tariffs
“We’re going to repeat that message to every Republican district there is right across the entire country,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said this week, teasing the new ad campaign at a Toronto business luncheon.
The one-minute ad excerpts a 1987 radio address by Reagan to justify imposing 100 percent tariffs on Japanese electronics over a trade dispute over semiconductors.
Reagan’s address warned of the long-term economic perils of tariffs on foreign imports sold to Americans as a protectionist policy and explained they were imposed to sort a particular problem — not to begin a trade war.
“But over the long run, such trade barriers hurt every American, worker and consumer,” Reagan narrates in the ad. “High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. Then the worst happens. Markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industries shut down and millions of people lose their jobs.”
Ontario’s ad will air on Newsmax and Bloomberg this week, according to Ford’s office. It will launch on other major networks and their local affiliates, including Fox, NBC, Comcast, Spectrum, Sinclair Group, CBS, CNBC and ESPN in the next two weeks.
Ford said at the event that CNN is unlikely to air the aid, explaining, “They’re a little nervous.”
The Carney government has said the current priority is on achieving bilateral deals for partial tariff relief on steel, aluminum and energy sectors. Bigger trilateral trade talks are scheduled to formally begin next year to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Mark Carney vs Doug Ford
Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is looking to deleverage tensions with Trump.
Ontario’s Premier, Doug Ford, wants to escalate.
As noted many times, no one wins trade wars. But no one has won anything but a smack in the face for offering Trump concessions with nothing in return.
This is how and why escalations occur despite the fact that retaliations hurt both sides.
Related Posts
May 8, 2025: Fact Check on Trump’s Claim “We Don’t Do Much Business with Canada”
“We don’t do much business with Canada from our standpoint, they do a lot of business with us.”
October 12, 2025: US and Canada Have a New Spat Over Auto Tariffs
“Our relationship will never again be what it was,” said Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
Reciprocal Tariffs
Reader: “Tariffs are reciprocal. All Canada has to do is to lower the tariffs they charge the US to what they want the US to charge them.”
Me: USMCA IS reciprocal right now. In extremely minor instances where it isn’t, TRUMP negotiated the deal.
Please read over and over Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
The above post contains over a dozen instances in which Trump bragged what a great deal.
It was such a great deal that Trump thanked Mexico and Canada. Notably USMCA is “Good for everybody – Farmers, Manufacturers, Energy, Unions – tremendous support. Importantly, we will finally end our Country’s worst Trade Deal, NAFTA!”
Good deal or not (and I think it was a very good deal for the US), the fact of the matter is Trump has no legitimate right to unilaterally break a deal ratified by the Senate 89-10.
The additional pertinent fact is Trump just proclaimed to the world that he may not honor any deal, even those he signs.
Carney is right. Trump poisoned our relationship with Canada. But will he fight back or bow down?
Updates
I made this post last week. This morning, I noticed it was still sitting as a draft. However, it’s still very relevant, so I posted it.
More recent events include Ford’s ad using Ronald Reagan’s position on tariffs.
Ford has really been going after Trump. Here are two directly related posts involving Ford.
October 25, 2025: Trump Cancels Trade Talks with Canada Over a Ronald Reagan Ad
Reagan was right then, and he is right now.
October 26, 2025: Are Trump’s Hurt Feelings Over Tariffs Now a National Emergency?
Trump just upped tariffs on Canada by 10 percent.
There is no question Trump can hurt Canada more than Canada can hurt the US.
Trump believes this is “winning”. But no one wins in this setup.
Instead of cooperating with Canada to produce more rare earth elements as I suggested, Trump is strengthening Canada’s ties to China.
Trump just does not understand trade benefits all involved parties. He is economically illiterate. In the absence of coercion, If both sides do not get something they want, there is no deal.
Trump wants one-sided deals he dictates, to which China responded in force. We were supposed to have hundreds of “deals” by July. To date, there is not a single signed deal.
Also note Trump Sanctions About to Cause a Serious Auto Chip Shortage
Get ready for up for another semiconductor chip shortage.
I think, if all sanctions were removed, and our world could return to widespread and beneficial trade, wars would not be so seductive to our leaders. Wealth and prosperity are bulwarks against wars.
That depends on two assumptions. One: that the leaders are not subject to outside influences (besides the voters), and two: the leaders do what is best for the country.
Who feeds the leaders? It is NOT the taxpayers.
I think Doug joined the dark side a few years back with Trudeau. Caroline Mulroney is my MPP and I am looking for that barbeque to ask her to get rid of Doug. If you ask me, if Canada abandoned their supply quota system for milk, eggs, and eliminate tariffs on the same, Trump would see movement on Canada’s part. It would save the Canadian family about $800/year. Butter is SO expensive in Canada.
This from the place that has a mid banker running the country. Who took over from Castro’s son running the country. Let’s just call Canada “California North”. The stupidity of these people is stunning.
They’re totally brilliant when compared with us.
Oh, Canada…
By all means Ford please play the FAFO game with usa. Not going to end wwll for Canaduh.
China plays the long game. 97% of Canada’s oil exports happily went to the USA. Now Canada has an expanded pipeline capacity to their west coast, and China is rapidly emerging as their number-one customer at the end of that pipeline. Long ago Canada made the oil export deal with a country they mistakenly thought was their friend. Now they know we’re you. They will decouple. They are decoupling. It will take time. And at the end of that time it will be you who finds out. Ditto for the rest of the world. They are all decoupling as fast as they can.
Trump needs another good swift kick in the balls from China and Canada to go along with the one Putin gave him…
Canada and China should tell the bully to pound sand…
You should help. You sound like you have good idears.
Canada should join the EU and get some muscle behind their negotiation. Carney is weak as water….throw the bum out.
Water is worth considerably more than cowardly carney. It’s shocking how weak he is and how much defense he gets from the other cowards.
I don’t think Trump has a Diplomatic bone in his body, he acts more like a petulant child than a World leader, there have never been any Presidents in my Lifetime that have acted like he does, he really is a World Class Bully. He starts his Presidency by suggesting Greenland should be taken over by the US than escalates it by suggesting Canada should become the 51st State. Than anytime a Nation does anything that annoys him he brings out his Tariff club and pounds them into submission.
Seriously, most Canadians have just had it with the guy and how he acts. I say this as somebody who was happy to see him win but now looks at him more as a very unpredictable guy who’s spur of the moment constantly changing decisions can really do some major damage to Countries he has a chip on his shoulder against.
I never understood his friendliness to North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and Putin, I always thought it was a strategy but now I’m wondering if it’s more about him actually admiring them and admiring the fact that they have 100% total unchallenged control of their Countries? No pesky Constitution to get in the way. Maybe the Democrats aren’t that far off suggesting he wants to be King of the US? Does he actually take any Political advice from anyone? I highly doubt it, I would guess he is surrounded by “Yes” men and that initeslf is dangerous.
“Trump: I will be a dictator on day one.”
– DJT
When someone tells you who they are, believe them
You guys keep making the same mistake with him. It’s as though you wake up every morning like the movie Groundhog Day.
oh, trust me … we all believe you are an idiot.
On the surface (what we see), Trump is a showman, a carnival barker. Beneath the surface, I don’t know. He might not be the brightest spoon in the drawer, but I suspect he has the US’ best interests at heart. At least he has the guts to say what he thinks at a time when politicians say what you want to hear.
Regarding ‘dictator,’ maybe Trump realizes it is the only way to get things accomplished in Congress.
Capitulate & submit, else we will, like, obliterate you.
The history of humankind has shown the importance of land acquisition–usually by invasion, but not always. By your approach, would there have been a Louisiana Purchase? Which country would Alaska belong to?
Looking ahead, merging Canada and the US is IMHO, quite logical. Acquiring Greenland is also a smart move, rather like acquiring Alaska.
As for diplomacy, was Alexander the Great a diplomat? Genghis Kahn? Napoleon? I am not advocating taking Canada by force, btw. There is a lot to be said for contiguous ground especially when the cultures are similar.
The title isnt accurate as Premier Ford of Ontario is threatening escalation with the US.
In any event, Prime Minister view this as a crisis for Canada, a rupture and has begun a process of initiating much greater trade with the rest of the world.
FULL REMARKS: Canada PM Carney Roasts U.S. and Unveils $1 Trillion Asia Push at ASEAN Summit | AC1G
The solution is obvious: Annex everything west of Sudbury, and the north. Let Eastern Canada survive on poutine, maple syrup, and sanctimony. Who knows, maybe the Newfies will go back to clubbing baby seals and we’ll get winter gloves that are worth a damn. Works for me. Any Canucks here? How about you?
You sound like a nice, friendly person, now don’t you?
Why not send the army to every country to loot and pillage? Why stop at Canada? That way we get REALLY fair trade.
Were you around for Bushco I & II ?
Ontario is too vulnerable to make these threats. Almost all our oil and gas pass through the US. It is not unimaginable that Trump would declare Canada cutting oil exports as a national emergency and bring in troops to secure their supply. Mid-west refineries are geared up for Canadian oil. Replacement would not be so easy.
And here Trump is saying Canadians should pay more for the Defense the US provides them.
The U.S. can get potash from Russia.
We already get 11% of our Potash from Russia and we keep buying it, even though we want other countries to stop buying commodities from Russia because it helps them finance their war on Ukraine. Pretty hypocritical of us.
We get 79% of our potash from Canada. Russia cannot possibly replace this entire amount.
And even if they could, why would you want to be fully dependent on a traditional enemy instead of a long term ally? It’s like being dependent on China for rare earth’s.
Obviously Canada is annoying, but “traditional enemy” is a little strong.
Canada’s economy is built on resource extraction and supplying auto parts. They are like the Beverly Hillbillies with an attitude. Time to put ’em in their place.
As stated by Webej:
“Canada is the most important destination for US exports, but is somehow the enemy of American trade !?”
And Canada is also likely the most important partner for US imports, potash, energy, etc.
I believe their is much ignorance on how important Canadian potash is to the US. I can remember Texastim saying something to the effect of just lets not buy any more Canadian potash. Without it, American agriculture would dissipate rather quickly.
Canada exported record amounts of potash preceding tariffs to the US. American farmers are the ones who pay the tariffs on the potash.
This post explains weaponizing potash exports to the US which I believe is highly unlikely to happen. In any event I believe that potash exports to the US will likely lessen in the future and other markets like Brazil will become larger customers as the US agriculture reels from US tariffs.
The Potash War: How Canada Can Cripple U.S. Agriculture and Force a Reckoning – Prime Rogue Inc
Lol! You said you wanted to get our Potash from Russia. Russia is our traditional enemy. Canada is our long term ally.
Too busy speaking to listen, he was.
‘Russia is our traditional enemy’
It is thinking like this that causes world wars.
Prior to 1917, the US and Russia had friendly relations. In fact, Russia supported the US against Britain, and fought with the US against Germany-twice!
Stalin is long dead.
You hide under a desk in an air raid drill, Dave?
This is the thinking that got us here. Let’s be less stupid today than yesterday, shall we.
I am stunned not one mention of a nation inserting into a neighbor nation an AI generated msg designed to massively influence the population of that neighbor. wow. I thought this happened only in a shooting war. Any instance where something…well even close to this has occurred?
Yes. Every single day, Canadian television viewing is dominated by US programming and advertising. They are literally inundated with our messaging constantly.
And it used to be good. But now we export slop entertainment.
Actually, it seems much of the world is intimidated by Trump.
Excellent!
The title should read Ontario Premier Threatens….
I like Ford’s grit and bully.
paper tiger. Next.
Put a 25 percent Canadian export tax on oil, gas and electricity. That will get Trump into a more conciliatory mood.
No, it’ll drive the canadian economy into the ground. So glad people like you aren’t close to government decisions. My goodness.
This would be hilarious, if it were a movie.
If it were a movie people would say it was too unbelievable.
Canada is f**king cold. In Greenland, Norway and Canada people have more brown fat than we do. Cold weather recruits brown fat. White fat stores energy, Brown fat burns energy. Brown fat cells are a semiconductor. When electron jumps from one molecule to the next it emits biophoton. Everybody emit biophotons. Biophotons also produce a small amount of UVB. When electrons jump from one molecule to the next they produce electric current. It pump our heart. If u have brown fat u also have a lot of cholesterol molecules. When UVB hit them it produces Pre Vitamin D. It’s stays in. It’s stored. U cannot detect it in a blood test. Canadians have dormant pre vitamin D. Vitamin D fight chronic diseases. That’s why Canadians are healthier. They also have more testosterone.
Red is good. In the morning, during sunshine, the clouds and jet trails are red. More
infrared at 7AM. More red on Mish.
So I thought Trump and Xi had decided on a framework for further trade talks, last summer. Now they are saying they are proposing a framework for further trade talks, for Trump’s and Xis’ upcoming meeting. LOL.
All hail Trump for solving the problem he created for no reason!
Interesting topic. This happens all the time in the U.S. too from what I can tell. I live near a border of two states. They are always trying to entice big companies to cross the border with TIFS, or Bonds, or tax free incentives. It is all about growth of jobs. Then when the free tax incentive end the company moves back to the other side to get new free tax incentives…etc. The GDP input into the U.S. economy is the same, just in a different location? There is always a loser and that is the state that just lost out on years of taxes to only see the company move….again.
I guess part of my point is that Stellantis is probably the winner out of this trade dispute. They will get major tax breaks I am guessing to move to the U.S. or maybe no tariffs? But I bet Canada is offerring them some good incentives too…. such as lower taxes to stay.
Yes. It’s like the coupon racket. One of those maddening game theory examples where everyone follows short term incentives and lose out long term.
Can it even be really good for the companies either? Their financial engineers play these games while the real innovation possibly suffers, until foreign competition comes along and wipes out the dysfunctional ecosystem. Just a hypothesis.
Creative destruction (with existential competition) is maybe a feature, depending on which organism you ask. We killed and ate our way here. I don’t think we can repeal evolution, though I would surely have tried to interface with it differently, by now, than this lot seem to be doing. They seem to want to recapitulate the forgotten lessons of the 20th century, which are apparently, like, so 5 minutes ago.
Not to worry in that taco will capitulate if he hasn’t already.
Then un-capitulate, then re-capitulate, then undulate along a whole different tangent, before breakfast.
I feel so diddled
Copied from Mish’s previous post
Canada is our closest friend, ally and trading partner. They sell us many raw materials we need at good prices and we turn those raw materials into finished goods that we sell back to Canada at higher prices. It is a fantastic trading arrangement that benefits both countries, but definitely benefits the US far more than Canada.
The largest Canadian export to the US is oil. They sell us around 4 million barrels per day. And they do so at a $12 discount to WTI oil prices in the US. What’s not to like about that?
Here’s a detailed breakdown of U.S. imports from Canada in 2024 by commodity, based on the most recent trade data available. All figures are in U.S. dollars and rounded for clarity:
Commodity U.S. Imports from Canada (2024)
Crude Oil $103.3 billion
Natural Gas ~$39.7 billion
Electricity $3.1 billion
Steel (Iron & Steel) $7.7 billion
Aluminum (Unwrought) $7.8 billion
Copper $4.0 billion
Softwood Lumber $5.6 billion
Uranium ~$1.2–1.5 billion (est.)
Potash ~$1.5–2.0 billion (est.)
🧮 Total Estimated Value: $173–175 billion USD
This represents over 40% of total U.S. imports from Canada, which totaled $421 billion in 2024.
It is really stupid to add tariffs to raw materials that we must import. It makes our manufacturing sector LESS competitive.
Canada need to grow some balls and stop all oil exports to U.S., at least for 3 to 6 months and let inflation rip to high heaven. Then we’ll know if tariffs cause inflation for sure.
I doubt if Canada would escalate to that level, though it might prove a point.
Perhaps an export tax could be applied to their exports of raw materials. This provides the Canadian government with a revenue source while increasing costs further for US manufacturers.
The problem with the Canada (and the world) is that it thinks it can work out some “deal” with Trump and that’s never going to happen. Even if by some miracle it did happen, Trump can renege on it at his next temper tantrum.
What Canada (and the world) need to do is inflict as much inflationary pain on Americans at all levels with the intent of making it so miserable every American votes out Trump and the GOP next year. Trump is doing his part, the rest of the world needs to do their part.
Trump only has 1181 days left so the other option is to just let his time fizzle out but that means everyone is miserable for 3 more years.
Of course the best option is to execute an exit strategy before the real SHTF.
“The problem with the Canada (and the world) is that it thinks it can work out some “deal” with Trump and that’s never going to happen.”
I would disagree, I have no doubt on the world stage it is known that you cannot work out some deal with Trump.
Listen to this interview with Carney at the Asean summit. All countries at the summit definitely aware of dealing with Trump. Remember all the Asean countries are at this summit.
PM Carney in conversation at ASEAN Business and Investment Summit – October 26, 2025
Also as stated in the interview, increased trade highly likely between all countries excluding the US as a result of Trump.
Then the US could get oil from Russia. Joke’s on you, Canada.
Care to explain how that would work? Most Canadian oil travels a short distance through existing north-south pipelines to the US midwest.
How would you replace 4Mbpd of that Canadian oil with Russian oil?
Hmm. First you send Russian oil by ship to a US port. Then you need to send it from the port to the US midwest by pipeline. Whoops. There are no east- west pipelines to transport that oil to the US midwest. Only pipes from Canada.
Okay. So now you want to send 4 Mbpd of oil by truck or train? Or maybe you just want to fly it in from Russia?
Not going to happen.
People say very stupid things without thinking much about what they are saying.
“Then the US could get oil from Russia. Joke’s on you, Canada.”
Actually I would tend to agree with Louis Gaves view that there is a good possibility that India, Russia and China will become dominant in the next 10 years. Not likely that Russia will export any oil to the US.
Economist REVEALS How China Leapfrogged USA in Tech – YouTube
How much is all this grandstanding by politicians? This is from a Canadian Website:
Most of the goods Canada exports to the U.S. are covered by CUSMA. The Bank of Canada said in its monetary policy report released Wednesday that an estimated 95 per cent of stuff sent south of the border qualifies under that agreement.
That means the new, higher 35 per cent rate will be felt by a small fraction of exports that are not CUSMA-compliant, which likely includes a broad array of products across all sectors, according to experts.
Correct. Most US-Canada trade remains tariff free. Which is why Carney isn’t as upset as Ford. Ford is worried because Ontario is the hub of Canadian manufacturing (such as autos and steel) and that is being hit the hardest by Trump’s tariffs.
“Canada is our closest friend, ally and trading partner.”
Not for long. Ford is every bit as a loudmouth as Trump. I’m looking forward to Ford poking the bear more & more. I’d love to see Trump sign a new trade deal with CA that excludes Ottawa.
Like you say, get out the popcorn!
I went to update my charts to provide a total. Alas, the government shutdown + an error in logging on denies me access to data that is there. Without logging on, the government gives no access to the data.
Yes. Many folks want the government to shut down for a few years, thinking that will make things better.
But after a short shut down, they sometimes realize that Government actually provides a lot of services that people rely on.
Put in your humanoid serial number to identify yourself, I’m sure they will be happy to let you in once you’re fully trackable.
So … What’s a small investor to do?
But gold??
Short mag 7??
“One word: Plastics”
(The Graduate / 1967)
had to look it up, wasn’t watching movies back then:
Over time, “Plastics” became shorthand for soulless conformity, the artificiality of modern life, and the emptiness of chasing purely material goals
Well, that’s what investing is about after all.. You can then donate half of it to charity to improve your karma
The alternatives in The Graduate seemed to be a soulless corporate conformity (“plastics”) or some sort of supposedly authentic total personal chaos (the protagonist chose), typical of the idiocy of that moment’s cinema. To see an even worse, sneering example of that faux freedom, that spoiled, directionless arch-vanity posing as art, see The Magic Christian, with (if I recall) Peter Sellers and Ringo Starr.
Everybody can pick one or a few of the many dizzyingly disparate future states of the world, now possible. That would be a big pie chart with slices as weighted probabilities of scenarios.
I have a large weight in federally insured US dollars. Why? I see a collapse of many structures where numbers accounted for as folks’ “dollars” in accounts are actually, in a time of distress, bankruptcy-remote, meaning, the account holder suddenly realizes (s)he is an uninsured, unsecured creditor of some random company, fintech or crypto exchange or whatever. And if/when enough of those tiered hypothecated debts and other structures collapse in a “bank run,” good luck with that. Got a Lear Jet and a bankruptcy attorney handy? The money supply collapses, at least for awhile. But that’s just my catastrophe fantasy, and I see ways that could evaporate, too, and INFLATION is at the top. I’m betting against gold and BTC. Who knows?