Case-Shiller Index Chart Notes
- Home prices temporarily halted their slide in February
- The 20-city seasonally-adjusted price rose 0.1 percent
- The 20-city unadjusted price rose 0.2 percent
- Year-over-year the 20-city unadjusted price rose 0.4 percent, down from 2.6 percent
Percent Decline From Peak
Home Price Synopsis
- Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up.
- There is a two-month lag in reporting. The latest report is for February and that represents sales primarily made in December and January.
- The declines shown are undoubtedly understated by a lot.
- Declines will accelerate but not fast enough to revive a housing market that has soured dramatically.
CS National ,Top 10 Metro, CPI, OER Index Levels
Chart Notes
- OER stands for Owner’s Equivalent Rent. It it the price one would pay to rent a home, unfurnished and without utilities.
- Home prices wildly disconnected from the CPI in 2000 and in 2013. The disconnect accelerated in 2020.
The Fed ignored all three occasions hoping to make up for “lack of inflation”. The Fed “succeeded” in producing inflation beyond it’s wildest dreams.
Sticky Prices
The year-over-year CPI has finally peaked this cycle as have home prices. But both are falling slowly. Inflation has been sticky.
Don’t dwell too much on the percentages because the data is stale.
But do look at the trends. Those trends will be in place for a while.
Stalemate
- Buyers want lower prices, but sellers want the prices they could have gotten 18 months ago.
- Existing home owners do not want to trade a 3.0 percent mortgage rate for a 6.50 percent mortgage, the current average rate.
- New buyers cannot afford much of a home because prices have not fallen much but mortgage rates have soared.
Buyers and sellers are trapped but in a much different way than 2008.
Money Supply is Declining at the Sharpest Pace Since the Great Depression.
The Fed is draining money fast to combat inflation.
For discussion, please see M2 Money Supply Declines 8 Straight Months, ODL Down 12 Straight Months
And Another rate hike is coming up in a week.
This post originated on MishTalk.Com.
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Mish
This is due to people adjusting their expectations which is driving demand for cheaper homes. Cheaper homes are abundant here in NC but they are rising.
I bought a 100k home in 2021. It would now sell for 195k just two years later. This is still an affordable home.
THe higher end houses, however, are falling rapidly.