For now, China is still doing fine on exports and US shelves are not empty, yet. 
Chinese Exports Soar to Rest of Asia, Europe
Bloomberg reports Chinese Exports to US Slump 21% But Soar to Rest of Asia, Europe
China’s export growth rose even as shipments to the US slumped sharply in the first month after President Donald Trump hit its goods with tariffs above 100%, a boost for a domestic economy that’s been increasingly reliant on foreign demand.
Total exports expanded 8.1% last month, above the 2% increase forecast by economists. Imports fell 0.2%, leaving a trade surplus of $96 billion, according to data from the customs administration Friday.
Shipments to the US fell 21% after the imposition of tariffs in early April, while those to the 10 Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group rose 21% and exports to the European Union were up 8%.
The first official hard data after the trade war escalated captures only the initial damage from the prohibitive tariffs, with their effects likely to become more pronounced starting this month. The expectation of many analysts is that unless the levies are reduced, trade between the world’s two largest economies would eventually fall to negligible levels after reaching almost $690 billion last year, decimating industries and raising prices for companies and consumers.
The slump in trade between the rival superpowers will be harmful to both economies, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the current tariffs “unsustainable.”
Bessent and his team will start talks on Saturday with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the way forward.
The two sides have staked out strong positions ahead of the talks, which might indicate it will be hard to make quick headway on any deal. On Thursday, just hours after Trump said he was unwilling to lower levies on China in order to unlock more substantive negotiations, Beijing repeated its demand that the US cancel all its tariffs.
Japan’s Early Exports in April Slow
Also note Japan’s Early Exports in April Slow as US Tariffs Hit Firms
Japan’s exports slowed in the first 20 days of April as the US tariff campaign intensified with new car and across-the-board levies.
Exports measured by value rose 2.3% from the same period a year earlier, the Finance Ministry reported Friday. That compared with a 4.2% gain in the first 20 days of March, and a 4.0% rise for that whole month. Growth in exports has averaged 6.1% over the year through March.
Items that contributed most to the slowdown in export growth were autos, steel, and mineral fuels, according to a Finance Ministry official. The ministry did not provide a further regional or amount-based breakdown of the trade figures.
In early April, the Trump administration hit Japan with a 25% tariff on cars and a minimum 10% levy on goods across the board, after slapping the country with additional levies on steel and aluminum in March. The car tariff was expanded to auto parts later, although partial relief measures were taken.
Japan is hoping to get a trade agreement with the US in June, but there is no sign yet that it’s poised to get a full removal of all tariffs before the 10% across-the-board levy returns to its original 24% in early July, once the period of temporary reprieve comes to an end.
The levy on cars and auto parts, Japan’s most lucrative exports to the US, is of particular concern for the nation, as some economists expect the economy to have contracted in the first quarter of this year even before the tariffs began hitting the nation.
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A partial rollback of tariffs on China from 145 percent to 125 percent or even 75 percent will not do that much good.
Even at 75 percent, trade with China will collapse except for items impossible to get anywhere else.
Actually, if you look at the ships leaving China on marinetraffic.com you would see fewer are coming to the U.S. and traffic to Chinas local trading partners and Europe has increased. But you would have to do a bit of objective research to know that and verify what is happening.
Maga folks would rather sit in their information silos and spout their allegiance to their WWE style orange headed dipshit cult leader.
Is telling the truth a deportable crime under trump?
not yet, but it could be in the future, Amazed when this (mis)administration tried to silence Amazon over identifying the additional costs of tariffs.
China has been taking numerous economic reports and other economic data offline and just stopped reporting.
To even suggest that China’s customs adminitration can be believed is laughable.
I call bullshit on that and numerous reports coming out of China show just how much their economy is being negatively impacted by Trump’s tariffs.
China doesn’t have a single thing to offer the world other than manufacturing cheap crap.
The communists in charge have gone above and beyond in ‘messaging’ which includes not reporting a growing list of economic data.
Why would they need to stop reporting economic data if all was good and well and the economy was running on 8 cylinders?
If China was Pinocchio, their nose would reach the center of the United States.
I am having a problem with the statement made, ” a boost for a domestic economy(China) that’s been increasingly reliant on foreign demand”
Isn’t it still foreign demand? It’s Europe & South East Asia that increased. That is not foreign demand?
Chart does not show any change it’s seasonal.
What annoys me about Trump, his lackeys and the right wing MSM is that they are doing the exact same thing that they criticized Biden, his lackeys and the left wing MSM of doing. That is outright lying, distorting the truth or simply omitting anything from their argument that does not fit the narrative.
Best not to deal with people of any sort who are having an existential crisis with their television set. I don’t mean testing vacuum tubes at the drug store, either.
Lutnick saying that 10% tariff is now the floor for every country. I assume that this will translate into 5 to 10% inflation for everyone at some point.
How so? And other countries have a greater than 10% tariff on American goods.
Is there some back up or history to prove that or is that just another typical anti Trump just to get in lock step???
More imaginary cult narrative. Please show us all the tariffs over 10% that other countries had on the US before Trump was elected.
And include links so we can see what you say is true.
You won’t. Because other than a couple of isolated examples, it’s all bull crap.
France for one. A simple google search. France has had for 30 years a 10% tax on US Auto and then also a Vat tax
One country, one example. And not over 10%. Try again. Where is the big comprehensive list? Oh. It’s all in your head. And make sure you provide links.
Here is one example from the US to counter your one example:
Did you know that the US has had a 25% tariff on imported pickup trucks since 1964?
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5348033/us-economy-tariffs-trump
“How so? And other countries have a greater than 10% tariff on American goods.”
And they have inflation rates higher than the US. What part don’t you get?
Here you go.
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate-
but aren’t there a lot of other factors involved in why there is inflation in those countries? Its all because of tariffs? I have a hard time believing that.
China’s Stranglehold On Pharmaceuticals Threatens Americans’ Health And U.S. National Securityhttps://medecon.org/chinas-stranglehold-on-pharmaceuticals-threatens-americans-health-and-u-s-national-security/
So continuing down this path is a solution? I do not know if starting tariffs is the answer but the current status quo is a grave problem.
Trump should primarily focus on manufacturing from a national security view. Shipbuilding is one example he has already identified along with electronics and semiconductors. Then finally focus on toy manufacturing.
I hope the Pentagon and Veteran Affairs don’t rely on foreign medical equipment and pharmaceuticals.
A few comments.
First: Regarding whether any “numbers” or “details” or “statements” from China, the US, or any other source are “believable”.
Mish is simply responding to what information is available. He cannot report on things that are not published or don’t exist.
Personally, I also try to post links to the details that are available. If the details don’t fit the narratives of some here, those morons will laugh at the source. When I ask them to post the details as they know them, they never do, because their details exist only in their heads.
This is a sure sign that these folks are f*cking idiots (such as Doug78 and Patrick). Total know nothing morons. They will always dispute your sources, but they can never link to sources that say anything that backs their cult narrative.
Second; as is often said, there are only losers in a trade war. The morons here keep talking about how the US is winning this trade war and everyone else is losing.
The longer the trade war lasts, the more losing there will be. Some impacts are evident already, but most will take time. Reduced shipments at US ports, shortages, and higher prices won’t show up for a few months because of the stockpiling that was done in advance.
Third; trade deals take years to negotiate and sign. It is impossible to sign 90 trade deals in 90 days, or 200 as Trump says. The deal with the UK and any other upcoming “deals” will not be comprehensive trade agreements. They will be tiny little insignificant announcements on a few items to save face, so Trump can claim “mission accomplished”. But they will not change anything in our balance of trade with the countries involved. Watch the trade numbers that we put out over the next few years. We will see how much our exports grow and our imports drop.
I continue to hope that Trump keeps his tariffs on as long as possible. Then we will see if his narrative that tariffs will transform the US economy into a manufacturing powerhouse will come true. Good paying manufacturing jobs will be created in record numbers and trillions of dollars of new factories are opened.
However, I expect Trump to keep blinking and backing down. He will keep reducing those “beautiful” tariffs as they begin to cripple the US economy. Which may prevent the recession that is coming later this year.
Here is some real hard data although anecdotal. There is a mall in Bangkok Thailand called the Iconsiem. It is a large 7+ story mall with Michelin rated restaurants and a Porsche, Audi and BMW dealership INSIDE the mall. They have all the high end luxury brands.
The mall is packed with consumers shopping at restaurants and every shop. There is a similar mall called the Pavilion in Kuala Lumpur. Very similar story. Don’t even get me started on Singapore where millionaires are considered “poor” people there.
The idea that only Americans have money has been absurd for a long time. The idiots would know that if they ever left the USA but MAGA cult members won’t ever do that (to the benefit of the rest of us).
I expect many of China’s goods will funnel into these places along with Vietnam, Cambodia, South Korea and Latin America. Those places will end up with lower costs of living and more money in their pockets while Americans end up poor.
Got exit strategy?
I could care less about Trump and yes there are millionaires in every country but Singapore’s population is small at around 6 million total.
As for Malaysia and Thailand, their GDP per capita country rankings are not even in the top 60.
Based on the above, it would not appear to drive much aggregate demand for exports from China.
..’their details only exist in their heads’. I agree, most people are simply too lazy to do any research prior to spouting off what they heard from a talking head on TV. The same is true for Trump, he simply spouts the nonsense that his boot licking advisers tell him. They simply tell him what he wants to hear.
If you choose to believe Chinese sources then you should be investing in Chinese stocks instead of Canadian oil and gas. I just questioned their reliability. Michael Pettis finds Chinese statistics are often massaged so I am just following his lead. Now as to you calling me an idiot I have never called you anything close to that. The worst was calling you Rhett Butler but he was a very smart businessman although somewhat flexible in his ways of making money. Why you called me an idiot is definitely not because of what I called you but because of my arguments that you obviously do not like. As for posting details, I have probably posted more details than you. What you just wrote above are not details but opinions as are most your posts. You overestimate yourself. If if you called me a f..cking Idiot I will not call you one. You already know what you are as do I.
Yes. You are a f*cking idiot. Just like Patrick.
You question every detail I post with links. Yet you never show any proof or links to what you say in rebuttal. It all comes out of your imagination or your ass.
Useless pos.
Relax. This isn’t your courthouse. We don’t have to prove anything to u.
Instead of refuting my refutes you call me names. Why don’t you do a little research yourself to see if I was wrong but when you did I bet you found out I was right and that is why you are pissed off. I research everything before I post. You should do the same. I am not your google. The sources are all there to be found. Research before posting. Above you said tariff treaties take a long time to negotiate. I bet you never even looked to see whether that statement was true or not. Hint: some are over in a few months and some take years and years. If you had looked into it you wouldn’t have made that ridiculous statement. Do some work. Don’t expect us to take you at your word. You can also ask me where did I get a specific idea and I will tell you. However if you just want a blanket resource covering a very wide area no one can give it to you. You are worse than than an idiot. You are a lazy idiot.
Pot black and kettle spring to mind, mes amis.
I give facts and post links. You do not. I ask you for proof of your claims and you can NEVER provide it. Which tells me you do zero research and pull everything out of your ass. No links. Just like Patrick.
You are lazy PapaDave.
ZION DON and his cult of dumbfucks prove the ancient wisdom the greeks wrote about. democracy works. assholes elect assholes. most amerikans don’t know they are assholes. i’m dually amerikan and european and citizen of the human primate species.
As guy married to a Euro gal and having closely watched and personally experienced Euro-Land for over 35 years, Europe has swirled further down the globalist/marxist/Agenda 2030 toilet bowl than America.
True. I have seen it happening.
I think we can both accept that both Europe and the US have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the line. The UK sure as hell has.
Well let’s take a brief look how things are playing out.
China is now sending product to other countries and trading blocks as US destination weakens.
Spoiler alert those same other countries and trading blocks have economies that are in trouble. Those same countries and Trading blocks are much more protectionist then USA ever was. They are not going to allow themselves to be losing jobs just so that China has a place to send excess capacity.
How is that UK-USA trade deal in the works going? Well there is a report that Germany’s Merz already on the phone with The Donald shortly after it got announced. Guess what, the call was not about having a cup of Tea and socializing.
EU unemployment and German unemployment are rather high for a western economy.
The market is heavily skewed towards Armageddon. Potential for some serious short squeezing as Armageddon fails to appear.
Agreed. And on your point somewhat, the NY Times had a article that they were angry that the increased U.S. tariffs would destroy the UK manufacturing base(whats left anyway) and destroy many tens of thousands of jobs in the UK…………
I never recall them mentioning that 1 time in the last 45 years as that giant sucking sound destroyed the American Manufacturing base in America.
As I did watch the Oval office presentation with UK representatives present. Which included phone call between Trump and Starmer, there was nothing but a congenial atmosphere exhibited by all.
Starmer has got the message from Reform UK and Farage performance, so he is open to any alliance which strengthens UK economy.
This is now a good template for other Trade arrangements getting ironed out with many US partners.
I suspect Canada will soon be onboard as well along with other members of British commonwealth.
EU in no position to be left out of the festivities.
Re-balancing Trade opportunities is going to do wonders for investment Capital flows inside and into USA
At least the trend is towards real growth and bypassing of Fed hegemony over US economy.
Mexico’s Exports to US Just Surged to a New Record High Despite, or Largely Because of, Trump’s Tariffs
The world’s largest bilateral trade relationship continues to grow, but it’s a trend that is unlikely to last.
2 things. Don’t trust the numbers. The Chinese have stopped reporting several numbers that are not flattering. They overstate GDP. Second, if the numbers are true, which they’re probably not, then some countries are getting dumped upon.
Do NOT trust the Sun in the sky, our source of light…the big pie in the sky…because the REAL sun is hiding behind it somewhere. If all we have a SUNNY NUMBERS, we cannot point to the real numbers…they are not THERE. Without them, you are swatting at non-existent Gadflies.
To the extent the numbers are true, one must wonder if Chinese exports aren’t being merely laundered in 3rd countries.
But we are right to mistrust the numbers. It is the default position of the CCP to lie.
China is using other countries as a conduit to re-label their goods to avoid high US tariffs.
It’s an obvious work around everyone expected. So obvious that team Trump, if they are capable of much, can handle without breaking a sweat. But then theory has to meet practice. What say you, Yogi Berra?
i had cigarettes and beer with Yogi 30 years ago. what a pisser of a guy. black tie affair. we were mocking the assholes there.
US voters took a long time to turn against Vietnam and the Iraq wars. One reason was, the costs were smoothed and delayed via the president’s and congress’s machinations. And, Nixon went all-volunteer with the military, so that became a more distant thing from everyday life. We shall see if price hikes of everyday items will play the same way. But I am not granting awards to a society built in a growing way for many decades (really since an uptick in the 1920’s and always after WW2) around low costs, impatience and instant gratification, in that regard. Note Amazon’s model for success, and imagine this is the reverse of that. The business model and social contract (and global aspirational image) have been about copious and fast deliverables. Ditto for whatever seems to be the incentive for wrecking the credibility of the dollar.
I was there. The numbers, the only ones we had, were bad enough to force me, at 17 years old, on to Lytton Plaza in Palo Alto in 1970 to protest the numbers we had. Those were good enough. I had older cousins returning in Body Bags. EVERYONE was angry.
Just a question Mish. You mistrust official US economic figures because they often contain distortions but the Chines trade figures you use come directly from China’s General Administration of Customs. Do you see them as accurate and why?
Cuz those are the numbers that ‘fit the bill’.
Ah yes, that global conspiracy to thwart Trump
Douggie, just share those alternate numbers and your “case will be closed.”
I don’t have any. I just asked the question. Some here believe anything the Chinese government says. Others are skeptical.
China’s total export is in a trading range for four years since Nov 2021. If Xi no longer gets a discounted oil from Putin and Iran And if oil prices will rise And US tariffs stays – even at a lower level – her trade surplus of $69B might flip to a deficit. If oil will rise her barter agreements no longer will be valid. The RMB will slump. China will be able to trade with the US even with tariffs and keep her ants happy And we will get her junks.
Xi no longer gets a discounted oil from Putin and Iran And if oil prices will rise And US tariffs stays – even at a lower level – her trade surplus of $69B might flip to a deficit.
===
did you get info about discounted oil from Iran/Russia sitting on coach in mom;s basement watching cnn/bbc?
any links? official links?
=====
buddy you worry too much about china! you should worry about your own country
37 $trn debt
2 $trln deficit
1 trln spending on MIC!
40 % of ppl is obese in USA
50% pf ppl DO NOT PAY ANY FEDERAL INCOME TAXES
spending PER CAPITA on health care 2x as much as any g8 country,. W/OUT ANY results.
have you ever been in japan or france? did you notice anything?
=====
270 MLN PEOPLE in labor force in USA (over 18 years), but +-100 mil do not work at all!
and on on
========
china has bee able to get by for 3000 years at least.
have you heard about silk road? who run one ?
have YOU EVER OPENED HIST BOOK?
========
USA become visible on world map after ww2 . it is less then 100 years
alx
alx bs: Dr Faust beagle lab was closed. School breakfasts and lunch, which poison our kids, is changing. Higher payroll taxes, higher inflation and tariffs will cut debt. The US is the best superstate. Better than the EU, China and India. SPX is in a trading range since Oct 2021. It made a rd trip to July 2024 high. QQQ to a line coming from 2000 to 2021 highs. QQQ might cont to rise in a low slow slog up, before popping up vertically, after the mob will join the party. That’s the Dow Theory.
Corrupt American (in name only) pols have sold out the U.S. working middle class with traitorous trade deals for the last 45 years.
For 30 pieces of silver, these Judases sold china the ability to be what it is today..
And have allowed china to steal the intellectual property it has chosen not to purchase..
Politicians bought by American corporations sold out the middle class. How is it we have a minimum wage but not a maximum wage? The highest paid employee of a corporation should make no more than 12 times the lowest paid employee. If that were the case a minimum wage law would not be needed.
CEOs used to have some connection to their workers.
Now, most don’t.
And CEOs used to have a sense of pride towards America and allegiance to this country.
Now, most don’t.
In those long past days, a typical CEO would be embarrassed to receive a compensation package that rewarded them with not only an annual salary that was in no way connected to the reality of their employees but also rewarded them if they FAILED THEIR COMPANY by posting losses to the point that they are forced to step down.
With a golden parachute…
This is the stuff of psychopathic levels of hubris.
Here’s a dose of reality. We’re only weeks away from empty store shelves and steeply increasing prices. Powell is going to be forced to raise interest rates. Wait for the screaming and yelling then!
All those except TVs and cars are low-tech stuff and will be made elsewhere. 10% of TVs and 2% of cars are not enough of a market share to influence prices. Surely the NYT article has details of more important articles that China makes and that we don’t. Why don’t you post the whole list?
That’s what the link is for. Go read it for the full discussion and then return with useful comments. Or not.
Not everybody reads the NYT. I dropped them years ago. I just asked you nicely to post the whole list. If you can’t fine.
It doesn’t matter how nice you ask me. Fair use only legally proves for 3-4 paragraphs quoted from an article. If you are too lazy to click through to the URL, then your loss.
And I don’t “read” the NYT or other papers. I use a bit of hi-tech called RSS to do the work for me. Look it up. It could make your life easier.
NYT lol.
if it is not on truth social it is fake news.
Don’t laugh when you see it appear on a new neighbor’s (from ‘the east’) driveway on Sunday in suburban flyover. Next thing you know they will be on the local school boards. See DuPage County, Illinois.
=-tech stuff and will be made elsewhere.
where? have you ever run 10+ people business ?
Broken record ; /
Much more than ten, much much more. Have you?
40 % of ppl is obese in USA
50% pf ppl DO NOT PAY ANY FEDERAL INCOME TAXES
270 MLN PEOPLE in labor force (out of 340 mil ppl) in USA (over 18 years), but +-100 mil do not work at all!
it is official BLS info
Are you implying that there is a causal relationship between being fat and paying Federal income tax?
Thanks to Doug we now know prices won’t rise from tariffs.
Worth re-posting. How I imagine Doug78.
https://preview.redd.it/maga-after-trump-claims-gas-is-only-1-98-per-gallon-v0-wyr9tl3kh8ze1.jpeg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=2dec218c0d173b3bcc47b54c42c3e4e0defcd983
A lot of state and local political parasites between RBOB and the pump.
Were you saying the same thing when Biden was president? Remember those “Biden did that” sticker meme?
Ironically, what will come between the American consumer and goods at the store are Trump’s tariffs (the biggest political parasite of them all).
I am glad you got the purpose of the image.
No empty shelves in Dollar General. Car dealers lots are half empty. That a boost to the economy. No Iphones at $3,500. Manheim used cars price chart: lower highs/lower lows. Lately it’s in a trading range: either to deflate, or to counter the downtrend.
Dr Z, the mustache guy from Germany, did a number on the old Chrysler.
Lot of companies built up large inventories in anticipation. Give it a couple more months until the SHTF.
The technical prowess of making toasters, alarm clocks and baby strollers only exists in China. No more toast, everyone wakes up late and kids have to learn to walk if they want to go anywhere.
another mo11ron who has no idea about things in USA.
40 % of ppl is obese in USA
50% pf ppl DO NOT PAY ANY FEDERAL INCOME TAXES
270 MLN PEOPLE in labor force in USA (over 18 years), but +-100 mil do not work at all!
Vlad can fix all that in less than the time remaining in a football game after the 2 minute warning.
The best toasters are at Silents estate sales with a UL tag still on.
– It’s hard to imagine an American home without Chinese products.
> Why?
– Toasters, >99%
> But, toasters are made in the United States. Some of the most popular American-made toaster brands include Oster, Cuisinart, Hamilton Beach, DASH, and Krups. Each of these companies has been around for a while and produces high-quality, durable toast appliances.
– Alarm clocks, >99% > They STILL sell them? I don’t know anyone that doesn’t use their cell phone, or some other electronic device for that. Who’s buying them?
– First-aid kits, 90% > ANSI makes them as do others?
– Baby strollers, 97% > ZIGI, RIVA & GRACO do so I believe?
Also China isn’t the ONLY place to source non-American made products. So we don’t have to go to China for a lot of things we need, and for Absolutely Nothing that we don’t need.
These ‘facts’ you put out are mostly incorrect and take 3 seconds to confirm with a Google search.
These ‘American’ toaster producers you list make their products almost entirely in China and then ship them here to be bought – thus the 99% figure.
If you want high tariffs on toasters so hopefully 2-3 years from now, there are some Americans working in factories to try to make the same low-priced toasters we have available now, so be it.
But you should look up basic info before posting as fact.
You should go to the NYT article and then send an email to the authors, since THEY wrote the article and I did not.
Then again, your info might be bogus and indefensible.
Those items you listed aren’t that important.
And neither are you.
Perhaps off-topic, are Pablo et al younger than 50 years old?
It would appear that China won the first round regarding balance of trade.
Could this be more front running by the US but subdued.
May & June should be more indicative of who is “winning”.