Trump worked out a deal with the UK, a US trade surplus country.
One Down, 199 to Go
We have the first deal (with details to be worked out later).
Please note Trump Announces “Breakthrough Trade Agreement” with U.K.
Speaking from the Oval Office, Mr. Trump said a “breakthrough” deal with the U.K. would include “billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports,” specifically agricultural products. He added that the U.K. would “reduce or eliminate” numerous nontariff barriers.
The final details are being written and will be delivered in the coming weeks, the president said.
“We still have our 10% tariff on which will produce $6 billion of revenue for the United States,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick during the White House briefing, referring to a 10% tax on imported goods from all U.S. trade partners, including Britain, imposed by Mr. Trump in April.
“This is a really fantastic, historic day in which we can announce this deal between our two great countries,” Starmer said over the phone during the White House announcement. “I think it’s a real tribute to the history that we have of working so closely together.”
Britain says the deal will cut tariffs on U.K. cars from 27.5% to 10% and eliminate tariffs on steel and aluminum, adding that the agreement sets a quota of 100,000 U.K. vehicles that can be imported to the U.S. at a 10% tariff.
Mr. Trump has not specified when agreements with other countries would be announced, but said that more deals are to follow.
While testifying on Capitol Hill earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the timeline for trade deals: “I’d be surprised if we don’t have more than 80% or 90% of those wrapped up by the end of the end of the year. And that may be much sooner,” he said, referring to countries with which the U.S. has trade deficits.
Some experts, however, believe negotiations will take longer.
Han-koo Yeo, a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics believes that countries with whom the Trump administration is negotiating will have it in their interest to move slowly in their trade discussions. That’s because of the longterm implications these deals will have, the former South Korean trade minister told CBS MoneyWatch.
Negotiations will likely drag past May into June, according to Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, although some countries might be motivated to act quickly.
“Everyone facing negotiations has been told to submit letters with their ‘best offers,’” Bremmer said in an email to CBS MoneyWatch, “and smaller countries that desperately want/need deals are complying.”
A Deal Is Only as Good as Trump’s Word
While it’s hard to predict what any potential tariff deals might include, Yeo, who has helped orchestrate several bilateral and mulitlateral trade negotiations in the past, said such agreements would likely be nonbinding “gentlemen’s agreements” or memorandums of understanding.
In other words, the U.S. could come to an agreement with a trading partner only to renege later on by issuing additional tariffs.
“The framework deal is only as good as the nice piece of paper that you write it down on,” said Eurasia’s Allen. “Trade deals are very, very complex animals, and you’re going to get probably top line agreement on some key issues of concern with a promise to come back and negotiate other things,” he said.
Framework for a Deal
The Wall Street Journal discusses the “Deal Framework“
The pact, which appeared to have been put together hastily by U.S. and British officials, is fairly limited in scope. The Trump administration agreed to roll back tariffs imposed on British steel and automobiles in exchange for purchasing Boeing jets and giving American farmers greater access to U.K. markets.
Under the deal, most U.K. goods will still be subject to the global 10% tariff the U.S. imposed on all countries in April. But U.K. steel and aluminum will be exempt from the U.S.’s 25% levy and U.K. car tariffs will be lowered to 10% from 25% for the first 100,000 vehicles.
In return, the U.K. is cutting tariffs on some U.S. beef imports from 20% to zero. The U.K. will also cut tariffs on ethanol. U.K. officials say that they are continuing to negotiate with Trump officials to reduce the baseline 10% tariffs the U.S. imposed. U.K. officials said the legal framework for the tariff reductions had yet to be signed.
The agreement, launched with great fanfare in the Oval Office and with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer dialing in, fell well short of a full trade deal that the U.K. has wanted for years. But it allows the U.S. president to show progress in getting something in return for the hike in tariffs that have spooked financial markets and added to growing gloom about the economy, including worries about higher consumer prices that have hurt the president’s approval ratings.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, a German bank, said the deal offers hope for “a series of deals to contain the damage from the Trump trade wars, which otherwise would hit U.S. consumers and U.S. businesses very hard.”
But he said the deal is “almost irrelevant for the U.S. because there are not that many U.S. goods imports from the U.K.—the U.S. imports almost nine times as many goods from the European Union than it does from the U.K.” The EU said earlier Thursday it could target American cars, car parts, airplanes and other products with tariffs if negotiations with the U.S. break down, and released a list of American products, valued at about $107 billion, that it says could face tariffs.
Deal Almost Irrelevant
That is what my charts show. I spent the morning adding UK to a number of charts and creating new ones.
The EU is nowhere close to a deal. Nor is China, Canada, Mexico, or Japan.
In fact, the EU is talking of escalating the trade war.
US Trade with the UK – Goods Only
We have a deal, with a surplus country, one whose trade with the US is relatively minor.
US Balance of Trade – Goods Only 10 Select Countries Plus EU
US imports and Exports – Goods Only – China, Canada, Mexico, EU, Vietnam
To put the deal into perspective here is an updated charts of select countries.
Deals Nowhere in Sight
- Canada: Balance -64 Billion
- Mexico: Balance -172 Billion
- Japan: -68 Billion
- China: -295 Billion
- EU: -236 Billion
Deal Announced
- Japan: Balance +12 Billion
Total 2024 Trade (Imports + Exports)
- Mexico 840 Trillion
- Canada: 762 billion
- China: 583 Billion
- EU: 966 Billion
- UK: 148 Billion
Fact Check on Trump’s Claim “We Don’t Do Much Business with Canada”
In case you missed it, please see my Fact Check on Trump’s Claim “We Don’t Do Much Business with Canada”
“We don’t do much business with Canada from our standpoint, they do a lot of business with us.”
OK we have a deal.
Strike that. We has a framework for a deal.
And “The framework deal is only as good as the nice piece of paper that you write it down on” which means worthless.
The UK is advised to treat that framework as good as Trump’s word.
That means it’s worthless.
Correction
I said 300 deals for trump but in the Time interview, Trump said 200.
For discussion, please see Trump Tells Time Magazine He Has Made 200 Deals Already, Refused to Name Any
Your trade adviser, Peter Navarro, says 90 deals in 90 days is possible. We’re now 13 days into the point from when you lifted the reciprocal, the discounted reciprocal tariffs. There’s zero deals so far. Why is that?
No, there’s many deals.
When are they going to be announced?
You have to understand, I’m dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We’re meeting with China. We’re doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I’ve made all the deals.
Not one has been announced yet. When are you going to announce them?
I’ve made 200 deals.
You’ve made 200 deals?
100%.
I’m just curious, why don’t you announce these deals that you’ve solidified?
I would say, over the next three to four weeks, and we’re finished, by the way.
You’re finished?
We’ll be finished.
Oh, you will be finished in three to four weeks.
I’ll be finished. Now, some countries may come back and ask for an adjustment, and I’ll consider that, but I’ll basically be, with great knowledge, setting—ready? We’re a department store, a giant department store, the biggest department store in history. [Emphasis Added]
I doubt that many people in the UK are going to suddenly start buying American products, just because there’s a trade deal. People are skint, and they will tend to buy whatever is cheapest or best value, and American products are low quality.
I hope they keep importing Audis into the U.S. No better way to identify a d- b- from afar.
What a freaking mess! Trump doesn’t have the legal right to impose the tariffs that he has done . They will all be thrown out by courts as the come to the bench. Either Congress is going to have to step-up if they want to modify tariffs and the likelihood of that occurring is next to zero.
Trump’s postering is nothing but bluster.
Do y’all have a plan B for when everything comes crashing down on Trump’s head?
Market drops 1 week on the extreme tariff announcement.
Now, 1 deal, 1 market rally complete.
299 more to go.
Anyone doubting that Trump is using this to engage in illegal trading on Wall Street needs their head examined
trump is a great and wonderful liar and actor. the best we have. democracy works. an empire of grifters elected their best grifter. a schizo bull shit artist.
Downvotes without anyone claiming Trump is actually honest. We’ve got safe spaces for you downvoters
As anybody who has been involved in trade negotiations knows, this not a trade deal but a trade framework agreement to keep negotiating. At the same time, by now Trump has totally damaged America as an export brand. I wish that hormone-treated American beef well in the UK market, but I doubt it will find many buyers.
“a series of deals to contain the damage from the Trump trade wars, which otherwise would hit U.S. consumers and U.S. businesses very hard.”
And now the excuses for the idiotic calls for doom and gloom completely missing the mark start rolling in. Wait a few more months and these idiots will be laughed out of their professions.
Trump says it’s a full and finished deal. Except no one has signed anything yet. And negotiations will take months or years on most items.
So far the US will drop the recent 25% tariffs on British steel and aluminum. Which means very little as the UK is not even in the top ten countries that export steel and aluminum to the US.
And we will reduce tariffs on the first 100,000 cars imported from the UK to 10% from 25%. Another nothing burger.
The UK agrees to buy some planes from Boeing and will drop the 20% tariff on imports of US beef, chicken, and ethanol. But they won’t buy beef or chicken that doesn’t meet their standards. US beef and chicken don’t meet their standards.
Wow! This isn’t a trade deal. It’s a face saving stunt for Trump to say how great he is. And his minions will eat it up. Lol!
That’s sure some far out guess work. Wow indeed! Sounds like you’re getting a little worried. Hope you’re still enjoying the show.:-)
Not guess work. Those are the details that have been mentioned so far in multiple reports.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp92r2kvk74o.amp
Please feel free to provide more details. I would appreciate it.
And yes; I am still enjoying the show!
bbc? That’s almost as good as the wsj. Wow.
There are plenty of other sources with the same details:
Time, yahoo finance, Reuters, NBC news, NY Times etc.
Perhaps you don’t like any of those sources either.
What sources do you like? A Trump post on Truth Social?
Again; Please provide more details and your source.
But you won’t. You don’t want to know the details if they don’t fit with your narrative.
Sorry if the details bother you.
Those are all crappy sources, are you seriously taking information from them?! lol
Bayleaf, what media do you rely on? Who do you believe in? All the negative nellies claiming media sources are bunk typically never admit what they follow. Curious, eh?
The reason he has to is because of how integrated the UK and US are in terms of defence in NATO, and the US needs to help the UK protect industries that are essential for defence, such as steel and aluminium. The UK is more about things like design, software, engineers, cultural products, food and drink (think whisky and shortbread).
seem like a deal with someplace is better than a deal with noplace
The UK is pretty close to no place. Brexit showed them to be far less important than anybody thought.
Yep bud, you’re right, and the USA is following us to obscurity.
Brexit had nothing to do with it, the EU is in the toilet, have you been there recently?! Germany’s ufcked.
If this was the Olympics, Trump just did a dive with 1.0 degree of difficulty, which is basically just jumping in the water any which way you like. These deals with countries that we have trade deficits with will have actual difficulty to complete them. It’s a whole different world. But go ahead and clap for Trump as if he just solved the avoidable problem he forced on all of us.
Deals mean nothing to Trump. Just ask Canada and Mexico.
Right, deals need to be honored, and Trump knows nothing of honor.
For Trump, IMO, the fundamental trade is in headlines. Attention is the essential currency. So there is a certain cadence to generating headlines. Now I expect a few from-the-hip weird Trump comments to keep the pattern going. I think he calls it a “weave” but I perceive a high noise-to-signal ratio.
They can just stretch it out, until he’s gone.
Trump is simply a liar. There are no details. Who dares to bet that this is NOT a tease, and 90 days from now, there is no actual deal, written agreement, or other evidence of the parties manifesting to bargain for mutual consideration?
Yeah, it was all faked. Go back to your safe place swee’pea
there is a special place in hell for boomers who use sarcastic terms in the comments section like: sweet pea, butter cup, sparky and sweetie. just a runny egg yolk for a brain.
These things take time. It’s gonna be a slow grind. Be patient!
Well tell us when we’re going to get to the golden age. Trump admin has 1353 days left so give us a clue. And if Dems win the mid-terms he really only has about 530 days.
And don’t forget Biden kept Trump’s tariffs throughout his admin, so when will manufacturing return?
Were you patient under the Biden administration?
There are other names for it, like “always moving the goal posts.”
If Biden or Harris were doing this exact same thing with respect to trade would you still say “These things take time. It’s gonna be a slow grind. Be patient!…”?
I highly doubt it. You’d be screaming about potential shortages and price increases.
It is pretty much useless to have a discussion on tariffs in a Libertarian blog because ideology primes over reason. Most here take Adam Smith’s views as gospel without ever having actually read what he wrote.
And yet here we all are posting comments and having a discussion. Perhaps you mean you don’t know how to formulate a good argument in favor of whatever nonsense you want to advocate like MAGA cult nonsense.
There is no discussion, only people making statements and trading insults. There is little analysis and few even make the effort to check their facts before posting. It’s become very boring.
Sorry to see you go Doug78. It’s been fun.
People like you made this place for people like you.
For profits? That’s an awesome compliment. Thanks.
Today was a great day to sell calls on my equities. The next Trump fiasco and market dip will be a great time to buy them back.
Rinse & repeat.
Since you live under a bridge you are well acquainted with the rinse-repeat cycle.
Doug78 you are just spewing insults. Got anything else to bring?
Like the dumb posts you bring? LOL!
Libertarian blog?! I thought I was on the official Liberals with TDS blog!
a “shape of the table” agreement – a preface to months of negotiations
…. These discussions, which began in November 1968, were centred on questions about the shape of the conference table, how many tables there should be, and how they would be placed. These discussions became known as the ‘battle of the tables’ and would last ten weeks until mid-January 1969 as fighting continued to rage and Richard Nixon won the presidential election. From the start, it was recognized that a triangular table (with the North Vietnamese/NLF combined but the US and South Vietnamese separate) would be a non-starter as it would imply that the Communist side was outnumbered two-to-one. North Vietnam wanted a square table in order to provide further legitimacy to the NLF, and also suggested four tables arranged in either a circular or a diamond pattern. The American preference was for a two-sided table or two rectangular tables. The North Vietnamese countered by suggesting a round table. Whereas the Americans supported the idea of a round table on the basis that people sitting at the table wouldn’t have any position, Saigon then protested that a round table meant that everyone was equal which would imply that the NLF delegation were equal to the South Vietnamese government. As a result, the US suggested six variants of a round table, including a round table bisected with a strip of baize to provide a symbolic dividing line. Later the benefits and drawbacks of an oval table were debated but the idea eventually was rejected, as were two semi-circular tables, one round table cut in half, a ‘flattened ellipse’, a ‘broken diamond’ and a parallelogram. The Danish mathematician and designer Piet Hein proposed a super-elliptical table with golden section proportions – neither square nor round but midway between the two that ‘would allot the two major parties 100 inches to every 6.18 for the two minor parties all the while suggesting sovereignty with alliance’ (technically speaking this table would have a perimeter that satisfied the formula: x2.5+[y/a]2.5=1 where a=[.5][√5-1]). Regrettably there is little evidence to suggest that this proposal from a concerned outsider was taken seriously by the diplomats, much less that it was understood by the diplomats. South Vietnam pushed for two separate rectangular tables and remained intransigent on this issue. Eventually Johnson grew tired of Saigon’s obstruction and wrote to South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu expressing his frustration. The deadlock was finally broken by a Soviet diplomat. Anxious to get the negotiations moving ahead, the Soviets pressured the North Vietnamese to compromise and accept a round table (4.75 metres in diameter) with two rectangular tables (3 feet by 4.5 feet) alongside for secretaries (no more and no less than 4.5 centimetres away). The table would include no nameplates, flags or markings, but would only be covered in green baize. Interestingly, the furniture used for the first meeting on January 18, 1969 – later replaced – was the same unused conference table that had been built for the aborted Nikita Khrushchev-Dwight D. Eisenhower talks in 1960. A separate dispute about order of speakers was also resolved with the South Vietnamese speaking first followed by the US, North Vietnamese and NLF. At the following meeting the order would be reversed and would alternate accordingly thereafter.
When you can just walk away the shape of the table doesn’t matter. In Vietnam we were trying to get our 300,000 troops out. We couldn’t walk away easily. The North Vietnamese had the leverage. Now since we are the trade deficit country we can walk away.
“The EU said earlier Thursday it could target American cars, car parts, airplanes and other products with tariffs if negotiations with the U.S. break down, and released a list of American products, valued at about $107 billion, that it says could face tariffs.”
Like I said in the prior post, TrumpCo is tripping over $100 bills (EU, Mexico, Canada, China) to pick up nickels (UK). And we call this “winning!”
Oh and that “big beautiful bill” seems to be falling apart with MAGA infighting.
Bye! Bye! Mike Johnson?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj0lZdtpH7M
Although just a framework, that deal isn’t good for the UK. This may be the one deal where Trump actually comes out on top!
Give the man a cigar!
Its not a deal, it is a framework and the only reason it was announced was because Trump was desperate to show any positive momentum on tariffs. And ignored by all, a 10% tariff on basically anything the UK sends here (even if not much) is still very inflationary
Still waiting on that inflation, are we?
Come on over to my desk full of 10% to 60% price increases from vendors, I am passing on 100% of these increases until the finally hit the consumer
When I was a child, I had absolutely no idea that the future would be this stupid.
I loved to read golden age science fiction… Asimov, Bradbury, Disch, Heinlin, and that crowd, and the only author that even got close to predicting the future we now inhabit was C.M. Kornbluth. I had always read his stories as satire. They may have been intended that way, but they aren’t now.
Not only is it stupid now, the stupidity is gathering speed… snowballing into an apocalypse of asininity as we can but look on agape.
What fresh inanity will tomorrow bring?
It will be Iain Bank’s The Culture eventually.
‘I had absolutely no idea that the future would be this stupid.’
Me too! Me too! And then I learned about all the people who voted for Kamala.
When you have two bad choices to select from, you have to choose one or the other. It’s often referred to as “Damned if you do, damned if you don’t”.
300? I thought it was 90 deals in 90 days?
Christmas Island, Iswatini and other Islands have to be added.
“Last month, Trump claimed to have already struck 200 trade agreements with foreign countries”.
Now he is giddy over one, LOL. And it really is not a deal at all. Just a framework to work out a deal.
Mish, As announced, the deal seems one sided, with the US imposing 10% tariffs on most imports, and the UK imposing very little. Can you help me understand why the UK would accept such a deal?
I agree the deal seams one-sided, but it is not final and we could be missing something.
They are like Ukraine. Agree with anything to make Trump feel good, knowing that it will never be implemented and even if anything does occur, it will be years in the future.
For me, it’s not even that good
What we have is an “announcement”.
It’s a “concept of a plan” deal
The key statement: But it allows the U.S. president to show progress in getting something in return for the hike in tariffs that have spooked financial markets and added to growing gloom about the economy, including worries about higher consumer prices that have hurt the president’s approval ratings. And Trump is acting like he scored a major victory (i guess enuff to justify his $6M military birthday parade). No wonder so many news sources frame it as a significant win for the UK.
It is not being framed that way here, the leader of the opposition here called it a shaft. Make of that what you will.
I read the cost is 45 million for the ‘parade’.
Yikes!!! That’s worse than i thought. I suppose Hegseth is going to make it “the greatest show on Earth” & display all his warfighter build-up to justify the ask for a record breaking $1Trill for FY 26.
oh good a break on tariffs on the mg the mg midget and spitfire autos oh wait…..
trump also said the baseline tariffs will be 10% minium, with deficit countries getting hit with more. so i don’t see why the market is happy about this, i guess it’s de-escalation but even 10% across he board tariffs are horrible for the economy.
You need to learn to play interstellar 4D chess Anthony.
Trump wrote the “Art of the Deal”
If deals are like art, then Trump is a finger painter.
All great works of art are signed, but Trump says he doesn’t have to sign his finger painting deals.
Due process?
Next time Powell will hike rates. If Trump succeeds wildly on trade, there will be rampant inflation and the economy will have to be cooled. If Trump fails massively, we get tariffs and recession and stagflation and rates will have to be hiked. Trump is so clueless on economics that he doesn’t realize any of it.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-aims-at-fool-powell-after-fed-rate-hold-122752369.html
Restarting student debt payments will moderate inflation. Powell won’t hike.
Say what? Explain the logic of this statement, if there is any.
More anti-American FUD.🙄
Dispute it instead of making ad hominem attacks that suggest you are a Cultist with a major case of TDS Type II
Mike, I get it: you’re a globalist who is upset that your coolie-labor model of exploitation for wide margins is being interrupted.
Some of us care about other things, though.🤷♂️ You know? Like the American worker that you don’t seem to care about.
The American worker is going to be replaced by robots and automation, even IF Trump manages to bring the factories back.
Driver jobs are soon to disappear. Autonomous taxis are all over CA and in other locations. Driverless trucks are on the roads in TX. Jobs whose primary description is driving provide work for nearly 6% of the workforce.
Where are these people going to be employed in the future?
Your concern for the “American worker” is touching but the reality is th elabor participation rate is on a downward slope and this slope will continue to accelerate southward.
History is full of “trust me” stories. A review will show some spectacular fiascos. This one is quite a leap, and a gross departure from what we were being told in very recent rhetoric. Suddenly the time horizon and mission boundaries/creep gap out of all recognition. The American people have not shown a huge attention span for the argument, “this isn’t a quick winner,” or “have less,” especially when that is seen as somewhat optional (as distinguished from, say, 3 years of grinding failure in the Great Depression). I don’t have to look back much further than the “trust me” “global war on terror,” as a comparable personalized experiment that took “W” Bush and his dynasty permanently down.
The “trust me” story was that offshoring wouldn’t hurt Americans. But it did.
Shedlock, et al. are incapable of responding. The facts don’t comport with the globalists’ narrative.
Want a response?
Anyone who believe those non-tariff barriers is an economic illiterate, most likely with TDS Type II
The George W Bushies had this kind of swagger in the open-ended “global war on terror.” We are still poorer and paying for that, but all the swaggering tough guys got very quiet circa 2008, and I never hear them admitting the stance they took.
I protest the invasion of Iraq in the streets of Los Angeles, so I don’t understand what that has to do with it. You think I’m a Neo-Con?! Quite hilarious.
Credibility is the foundation of leadership. Trump has none.