Biden is so wrong, even the liberal Guardian sees it. But it’s full speed ahead with massive subsidies for something counterproductive.
Ronald Stein at the Heartland institute says Unsold Electric Cars May Be Signaling a Death Spiral for the Auto Industry
As the future is fast approaching, virtually all the automobile manufacturers, through government mandates to reduce the emissions of their fleet of vehicles, are going all-in to only manufacture EV’s in the coming years. To meet low emissions for their fleet of vehicles, we’re most likely going to see fewer and fewer hybrids as the auto industry manufacturers need to eliminate the gasoline engines in hybrids to meet those lower emission targets.
The problem is that manufacturers are loading up the “supply chain” with EV’s on dealer lots, but they’re not seeing the “demand” for EV’s coming from the public.
Demand Flop Reasons
- driving range,
- vehicle reliability,
- price,
- the availability of electricity for the buildout of the charging infrastructure,
- charging time,
- the cost and lifespan of batteries and their environmental impact,
- the actual impact EVs will have on reducing carbon emissions,
- the growing statistics about uncontrollable fires of lithium batteries in EV’s,
- problems with battery recycling and end-of-life management,
- concerns that the EV free ride of usage of highways and not paying fuel taxes is about to end with the Vehicle Mileage Tax (VMT), i.e., more costs for the EV owners of the future,
- concerns that home chargers are destined to follow the UK and be on separate meters so that EV charging will be at higher rates to help stabilize the electrical grid, again more costs for the EV owners of the future.
None of the above is new except perhaps that last bullet point. I have written about the above concern list many times, but it is an excellent synopsis.
Additional Problems
Another problem for the automobile industry is convincing the buyers that its ethical, moral, and socially responsible to buy an EV, especially since most of the exotic mineral and metal supplies to build the batteries are being mined in developing countries with limited environmental regulation nor labor regulations.
Interestingly, the 2021 Pulitzer Prize nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations – Helping Citizens Understand the Environmental and Humanity Abuses That Support Clean Energy does an excellent job of discussing the lack of transparency to the world of the green movement’s impact upon humanity exploitations in the developing countries that are mining for the exotic minerals and metals required to create the batteries needed to store “green electricity”. Complimentary to the book is a 2-minute clip from Michael Moore’s 2020 documentary film, Planet of the Humans, that’s been viewed by more than 14 million, that illustrates how so-called green electricity is made
It’s not often I agree with Michael Moore on anything, but his video ought to be an eye opener for those who mistakenly believe EV will do anything for the environment.
The video start at the 36:44 mark, a good spot for the exploitation that goes into producing the minerals needed for EVs and how solar energy is destroying the desert.
California Leads the Way
- Most states lack the year-round temperate climate that Californians enjoy, the distribution of EV ownership throughout the nation should be a concern to the auto industry. With 40 percent of the EV’s in America being in California, that leaves the other 60 percent being among the other 49 States, or approximately 1+ percent per State.
- To support the State’s EV growth, California imports more electricity than any other US state, more than twice the amount of Virginia, the second largest importer of electricity. California typically receives between one-fifth and one-third of its electricity supply from outside of the state.
- The other 49 states have virtually non-existent EV charging infrastructures, and a few of them may be exporting their electricity to California!
UK Madness
- As of May 30, 2022, in the UK, new home and workplace chargers being installed must be “smart” chargers” connected to the internet and able to employ pre-sets limiting their ability to function from 8 am to 11 am and 4 pm to 10 pm.
- In addition to the nine hours a day of downtime, authorities will be able to impose a “randomized delay” of 30 minutes on individual chargers in certain areas to prevent grid spikes at other times.
- The UK Electric Vehicles (Smart Charge Points) Regulations 2021 came into force on June 30, 2022. All home installed electric vehicle chargers are required to be separately metered and send information to the Smart meter data communications network. Potentially this legislation allows the electricity used for charging EVs to be charged and taxed at a higher rate than domestic electricity. The technology enacted also enables the rationing of electricity for EV charging because the government can decide when and if an EV can be charged, plus it also allows the EV battery to be drained into the grid if required.
Carnage of Child Labor and Ecological Destruction ‘Elsewhere’ acceptable to Wealthy Countries
Next, please consider Carnage of Child Labor and Ecological Destruction ‘Elsewhere’ acceptable to Wealthy Countries, also by Ronald Stein.
The Administration is laser-focused on ending the “climate crisis” by switching to “clean” electricity. It has few qualms about importing the critically needed materials from foreign countries, primarily China – regardless of economic, defense, national security, ecological or human rights implications. It just wants the dirty aspects of “clean” electricity far away and out of sight.
In California, Governor Gavin Newsom has been vocal about his commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the state. However, some of his recent actions of “leaking” emissions to other countries violate many sections of the written legal framework of The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32).
The silence is deafening from billionaires like Bill Gates, John Kerry, Mark Zuckerberg, George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, and President Biden.Through the encouragement of tax incentives and subsidies to go to EV’s and electricity from wind and solar, they are providing financial incentives to China, who already controls the supply chain for the minerals and metals to go green, furthering our total dependence on China to achieve the green goals of America.
“The wealthy country elites continue to demonstrate their lack of ethical, moral, and social responsibilities, by using subsidies that encourage the continued exploitations of people with yellow, brown, and black skin and the environmental degradation occurring elsewhere, out of view of those living in wealthy countries,” says Stein.
The destruction, however, is not just elsewhere.
How an Oasis Becomes a Dead Sea
The Guardian comments Solar Farms Took Over the California Desert: ‘An Oasis Has Become a Dead Sea’
Kevin Emmerich worked for the National Park Service for over 20 years before setting up Basin & Range Watch in 2008, a non-profit that campaigns to conserve desert life. He says solar plants create myriad environmental problems, including habitat destruction and “lethal death traps” for birds, which dive at the panels, mistaking them for water.
He says one project bulldozed 600 acres of designated critical habitat for the endangered desert tortoise, while populations of Mojave fringe-toed lizards and bighorn sheep have also been afflicted. “We’re trying to solve one environmental problem by creating so many others.”
Madness in Michigan
Last week a reader called me regarding use of solar panels in Michigan. Since he began fighting such projects a few years ago, he has been targeted by IRS audits.
The harassment continues despite him winning the battles.
Michigan is probably one of the worst places to place solar. I suggested to my reader to look up Michigan cloudiness. Check this out.
A 2013 study concluded that over a 31-year period, Michigan winters are filled with clouds more than 50% of the time. That means the months of December, January and February are quite cloudy. Places like Wisconsin, however, are less than 30% cloudy on average in the winter.
A 2023 update shows it’s even worse. PBS reports Michigan winters are super cloudy and getting worse.
For nearly two weeks, clouds blanketed large swaths of Michigan, occasionally accompanied by rainfall that transformed our winter wonderland into a muddy mess.
The bad news is gloomy, muddy winters could become increasingly normal in Michigan as climate change chips away at Great Lakes ice cover, strengthening the forces that drive lake effect clouds, rain and snow.
And how much of the time would those solar panels be covered in snow?
Even with subsidies, there is no way solar projects in Michigan can possibly work.
Solar Energy Is Not Cheaper
I am sick of all these lies about solar being cheaper. On a new facility, in sunny place, it might appear so on the surface. But that ignores the fact that existing plants are up an running and will need to be mothballed, if and when there is storage capacity to deal with the inconvenient issue that sun does not shine at night.
Destruction of productive facilities for something only marginally better makes little sense. And it makes no sense at all when one factors in required grid updates, child labor exploitation, and also the destruction of US deserts, the latter discussed in detail below.
What to Expect When Politicians Try to Pick Technology Winners
On May 25, with a spotlight on the EU, I commented on What to Expect When Politicians Try to Pick Technology Winners Part 1
Biden’s Solar Push Is Destroying the Desert and Releasing Stored Carbon
The Left ignored environment destruction, even in the US.
On May 28, 2023, I noted Biden’s Solar Push Is Destroying the Desert and Releasing Stored Carbon
Biden is so clearly wrong, even the extremely liberal Guardian sees it. But it’s full speed ahead with massive subsidies for something counterproductive for the goal.
Electric Vehicles for Everyone?
On July 19, I asked Electric Vehicles for Everyone? If the Dream Was Met, Would it Help the Environment?
My follow-up post was What Do MishTalk Readers Think About “Electric Vehicles for Everyone?”
Math Does Not Add Up
The EV math does not add up in the EU or here. But the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), better known as the Eurozone, has economic debt brakes and budget rules that make matters more painful for the 20 EMU countries.
In the US, deficits pile up as do the economic impacts of a massive wave of Bidenomic regulations and mandates.
We pretend that deficits don’t matter and mainstream media not only looks the other way, but is in on the act with countless fearmongering stories.
Inflationary Madness Marches On
On August 17, I commented Yet Another Biden Regulation Will Increase Costs and Promote More Inflation
It involves a new Biden regulation that will increase the price of all government projects. Click on the link for details.
Rooftop Solar Panel Madness
The one place where solar might makes sense is roof top solar panels. But even there, we have environmental madness, taxing the hell out of panels, making them too expensive to use.
For discussion, please see The Cost of Soup is About to Increase, Thank President Biden
The above article discusses soup and solar panels. Soup is the sideline.
US policy is so convoluted that we aim to put solar where it makes no sense at all, and kill the idea where it does.
Meanwhile, If you actually believe you are doing something positive for the environment by buying a Tesla, you are an environmental fool.
I truly appreciate your technique of writing a blog. I added it to my bookmark site list and will
Cursory perusing of the literature on the total CO² costs of the entire manufacturing and generating chain and minerals of EVs and renewable energy have lead me to conclude that there are no reliable statistics to even reach a conclusion.
That said, electric vehicles are fantastic and were in fact an attractive idea even before the advent of the gasoline automobile: If only we could solve the problem of storing electricity.
»The harassment continues despite him winning the battles«
Err. Because he is winning.
It is truth tellers that are punished, not liars.
AGW drives the reason for RE to go 100%. World wide RE will receive more investment money than FF this year. We are at a tipping point into RE.
The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think
The United States is pivoting away from fossil fuels and toward wind, solar and other renewable energy, even in areas dominated by the oil and gas industries.
nytimes.
/interactive/2023/08/12/climate/clean-energy-us-fossil-fuels
“We look at energy data on a daily basis, and it’s astonishing what’s happening,” said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency. “Clean energy is moving faster than many people think, and it’s become turbocharged lately.”
More than $1.7 trillion worldwide is expected to be invested in technologies such as wind, solar power, electric vehicles and batteries globally this year, according to the I.E.A., compared with just over $1 trillion in fossil fuels. That is by far the most ever spent on clean energy in a year.
Those investments are driving explosive growth. China, which already leads the world in the sheer amount of electricity produced by wind and solar power, is expected to double its capacity by 2025, five years ahead of scheduel. In Britain, roughly one-third of electricity is generated by wind, solar and hydropower. And in the United States, 23 percent of electricity is expected to come from renewable sources this year, up 10 percentage points from a decade ago.
Biden’s a senile octogenarian. C’mon….
The only reason we have BEV hype is the same as why we have equally idiotic hyping of, the at least as 100% purely stupid, “self driving cars,” “AI” ad the rest.
It is solely because all wealth, hence resources/capital in the West, has been redistributed to rank retards. All decisions wrt capital allocation, as well as “hiring” and “firing” are done by dumb dilettantes who can hardly read. Who “all” “made their money” from their “portfolio”, “house” and “investments.” IOW: From Fed welfare redistribution. Redistributed FROM The West’s potentially productive people.
Given that: Western industry is no longer competitive at anything. They can’t produce real cars competitively at a profit. Doing so is really, really hard.No matter how many “smart” Americans there may be tucked away atoud the country: They can’t compete at hard stuff, while having to “report to” some idiot dilettante running a “PE fund,” nor some “counsel.” The former whom is dumber than their dog, and the latter who tells them they have to set aside 2x every year’s gross sales, for “insurance” against arbitrary shakedowns.
Now: Since those who can, do; while those who can’t are the ones who “invest”: “Investing” is all that the class of Fed enriched Welfare recipients can do. Hence all that they do, do. Which is the real reason why you end up with all this childish, sci-fi, hyped “future” nonsense which will never make sense, absent ever more of the same old redistributions to the retarded dilettante class.
Because: As long as the dilettantes simultaneously hype something which can never work, AND say the magic spell “future”; they then don’t have to compete with their in-all-ways superiors anymore. After all; even those pesky competent people, can’t make pigs, nor cars, fly. Nor make neither of them drive around by themselves. Not make neither battery powered. Nor artificially “intelligenced.” Nor any of the other nonsense that forever-loser dilettantes wishes were possible; so that they, in their childish dreams, could have a field where stupid little “investor” them, could somehow compete with competent people without being so obviously left behind.
None of this drivel will ever generate any value on it’s own. The only way to sustain any of it, is ever greater redistributions from productive undertakings, productive enterprise and productive people. Redistributions which idiots from The Fed favored dilettante class, can then “invest” in their childish little fantasies. Such that they can then pretend that they are somehow “successful”, when the flood of free-to-them money drive up the “share prices” of their utterly value destroying “investments.” And the idiots can then keep living in the childish fantasy that they are some sort of useful lifeform.
But in reality: None of it: Not BEVs, not AI, not “self driving cars,” not “flying cars,” not massive photvoltaics; will ever generate widespread net value. Any “money” the stupid incompetents “investing” in it, from Muskman on down, have “made”, has simply been stolen from more competent people. Then redistributed their way. By way of debasement, mandates, differential “taxation”, idiotically low interest rates, bailouts, credit pumping…., what have you. Not one single one of which creates ANY value. Hence, by simple arithmetic, can only, at best, strictly redistribute. All at great economic and societal loss.
But that’s the reason why all of this nonsense even exists: It’s simpy too hard for the dilettante classes to compete. Their grandparents, at least some of them, may well have build valuable enterprises. But by now, they all live off of nothing more than simple rent seeking, and wealth redistribution by The Fed and an ever more totalitarian, captive government. The dilettante classes don’t know anything else, don’t understand anything else; nor never, ever will.
So, as long as that sort of abject nothings are the ones being handed all the West’s wealth, hence power, by way of financial-and-“legal”-channel redistributions: Childish, wealth destroying, utterly silly, useless hype, is all there will continue to be. You “make money” not by creating anything of value competitively. But simply by getting senile politicians to subsidise some childish fantasy you are stupid enough to believe in. And/or that other clueless dilettantes will “invest” the loot The Fed handed them, in. And when the nonsese fails, The Fed will step in and “loosen monetary conditions” enough tp cover every abject failure, of every braindead connected dilettante , up.
While all the while: Any real, value adding, work which can be shifted abroad, continues to be. It’s simply not viable to perform over here anymore, since anyone producing anything in America has to carry an entire dilettante class worth of value-destroying nothings on their real-economic balance sheets. And as for infrastructure, health care, education and other work which can’t be outsourced wholesale to Asia: It just sits there and crumbles, since noone retains neither the competence nor the resources keep any of it going anymore.
So much of this is completely wrong. Seems like it was written by the fossil fuel industry. The Guardian will write whatever makes the most money for them. Wonder how much they received from shell for this nonsense. A lot of the things mentioned might have been true 5 years ago, but are no longer true.
I have a smart meter. The way it actually works is you pay more for electricity from 12-8 on workdays (M-F non-holiday) and pay less at other times. During the winter, the hours are shifted to 8-noon and 4-8. These are called peak hours. During peak hours you pay a lot more. In my case it’s like 2.5x as much. All other times are discounted by about 30%. So anything that uses a lot of electricity like charging my EVs, I do during non peak hours. I also run the dishwasher, do the laundry, and crank the AC during non peak hours and set the thermostat higher during peak hours. I really only need the AC at night so I can sleep, so it works out great for me.
Many people in the world do not even have a meter, because they do not have electricity yet. There is a lot of demand out there that has yet to be satisfied. And there aren’t enough renewables being built yet to satisfy that demand. So they will burn whatever they can.
Off grid people can have energy sooner with RE than with FFs. Stringing a utility wire is incredibly expensive. Way cheaper to install small scale RE than utility transmission.
Excellent article. Here’s a suggestion for a future one.
“Who Benefits From The US Switching Away From Fossil Fuels?”
Off the top of my head, China benefits because if we reduce fossil fuel consumption, that leaves more for them on the international market.
The answer to the question posed in an article about that might help explain the drive toward solar and EVs in the US, and who is really behind it.
Life on earth benefits from switching away from FFs. Doesn’t make life on earth greedy. Maybe desperate to live though.
Hey Mish,
Thanks for continuing to post articles and thoughts..
I’m all for people making money off of stocks, options, etc. and best of luck to you and your followers…
However, there’s a lot of incorrect info in this article that’s straight out of the BIG OIL / Fossil Fuels FUD Playbook.
Easier to just make quick responses to your list:
The problem is that manufacturers are loading up the “supply chain” with EV’s on dealer lots, but they’re not seeing the “demand” for EV’s coming from the public.
*** This is simply NOT true. The Tesla Model Y is the Best Selling Vehicle in the Entire World…now beating out the Toyota Corolla, formerly the best selling vehicle in the world. The Tesla Model Y is also the Best Selling EV in the US and rapidly catching up to the Top three Pickups. No supply problem there. Exactly HOW MANY extra EVs are sitting on the lots?? Not many…put a number in the box.
Demand Flop Reasons (Mistakes in understanding, not actual reasons)
driving range,
No problem…EVs are charged EVERY single night, when the costs are lowest. Start with a Full Battery every single day. No range problemo.
vehicle reliability,
Is this made up?? Plenty reliable…ICE cars get recalls every single year. Less Maintenance, Less Parts, Less Problems. Dealers are going to have Less Service Business.
price,
Teslas (model 3) now cheaper than the average vehicle sale price in the US…BEFORE the $7,500 Tax Credit…not counting any State Discounts, which are $$ Thousands of Dollars more in savings.
the availability of electricity for the buildout of the charging infrastructure,
Electricity is run to every home, building and business in the US. The “Charging Infrastructure” is already wired into people’s homes, businesses, shopping areas, Etc. Put up a few Solar Canopies above some parking spaces and you Add to the ease of distribution.
charging time,
Charges Overnight…Just plug it in and let the software pick the cheapest time to charge it. This rarely even comes up if you drive an EV.
the cost and lifespan of batteries and their environmental impact,
Lifespan of batteries is 100,000’s of miles. Environmental impact is WAY better than BURNING Poisonous Liquids (OIL, Gasoline, Diesel) EVERY SINGLE DAY non-stop for the ENTIRE life of the ICE vehicle.
Gasoline is poisonous, the Fumes that come from it are poisonous, everyone breathes in those poisons, sucks in the carcinogenic smog particulates, and volatile organic compounds every time you drive your ICE vehicle. THAT is environmental impact. Not to mention the Flaring of Methane, Escaping from the Wells, leaks in the refining process, ICE Trucks Driving Every Single Day to deliver more Gasoline to Gas Stations. Just non-stop pollution every way your look at it for ICE vehicles.
the actual impact EVs will have on reducing carbon emissions,
Much better impact than ICE vehicles over their lifetimes…and EV Batteries can be recycled…UNLIKE Gasoline / Diesel, which just keeps burning and burning and burning.
the growing statistics about uncontrollable fires of lithium batteries in EV’s,
This is easily the worst nonsense of all. There’s about 200,000 ICE vehicle Fires EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the US. EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.
Soooooo many ICE Vehicles catch on fire that it rarely even makes the news. There’s only a couple dozen EV fires in the entire country. It’s an ORDER of MAGNITUDE worse for ICE vehicle fires. Combustion is the ICE vehicles middle name…Literally.
problems with battery recycling and end-of-life management,
Already solved. Redwood Materials and about a Dozen other companies around the world have already set up Recycling Facilities. This is a complete Nothing Burger. The batteries are valuable…and so is the recycled products from them.
concerns that the EV free ride of usage of highways and not paying fuel taxes is about to end with the Vehicle Mileage Tax (VMT), i.e., more costs for the EV owners of the future,
No-one cares…or expects that there won’t be any taxes on EV cars in the future. Tax Man is gonna Tax. The difference is that Healthcare Costs go DOWN with EVs because there’s no Poisonous Fumes spewing out of their tailpipes. They’re going to work that out in the long run…faster than you think.
concerns that home chargers are destined to follow the UK and be on separate meters so that EV charging will be at higher rates to help stabilize the electrical grid, again more costs for the EV owners of the future.
EV Chargers / Battery Storage are ALREADY being used as VPPs (Virtual Power Plants) and owners are being PAID to send energy back to the Grid during Peak Usage Hours (Especially 4pm to 9pm). This is already in place in several states and growing. As more EVs can be used V2G, there is even more opportunity to make money from having an EV or a PowerWall or similar Battery Storage System. More and More people are putting Solar on their roofs and not even getting charged for their electricity. As this grows more and more because of Solar and Battery Storage, less and less people will need the Grid.
Make all the money you want trading or buying and selling OIL / OIL Stocks…but the long term trend is the same as Kodak or Xerox or Sears or Blockbuster…The new Tech is here…it’s already replacing it NOW in other countries…and they’re going to eat the Big Legacy Auto’s Lunch…And Gasoline / Diesel…it’s just better, cleaner and will remove a major issue that starts WARS…aka BIG OIL.
I appreciate your enthusiasm David. But your optimism for renewables is misplaced. Because of the timelines. It is going to take much longer than you think to “transition” away from fossil fuels. We are still a decade away from reducing use of oil and gas. Probably 3 decades away from cutting it in half. We need all forms of energy. Being anti-fossil fuels is just as stupid as being anti-renewable.
I’m with you PD. While I don’t like the previously not-mentioned down sides to FF and I want to see it replaced with ?, where’s the viable plan? Yes, let’s go green but don’t kill me along the way.
Government interference in any human activity at this level presents opportunity for enrichment but, unfortunately, it’s a situation usually reserved for the already rich. As PD endlessly points out, as we reach for the goal, you and I have the opportunity to get on the gravy train instead of watching the rich people leave on it.
Three types of people: those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who wonder what happened. Which is you?
And yet you may wrong on this and Dave and I are right. Time will tell.
link to nytimes.com
The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think
The United States is pivoting away from fossil fuels and toward wind, solar and other renewable energy, even in areas dominated by the oil and gas industries.
Yes. The US is making progress. Lots of countries are making progress. But at nowhere near a fast enough pace to reduce fossil fuel use “worldwide”.
The world, as a whole, is many years away from making enough progress to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
You just might be underestimating exponential growth.
link to weforum.org
The fast growth of renewable energy over recent years offers us a stronger chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change.
Last year, solar and wind combined made up 8.7% of global electricity generation, compared to 1.7% in 2010.
Prediction models often assume that the growth of solar and wind will be linear; however, evidence shows this growth is actually exponential.
This piece explores the reasons behind solar and wind’s growth and how we can continue to accelerate this.
EVs are not for me because having a car means freedom, to go wherever I want, whenever I want. Maybe the US is different, but here in Europe, a trip in an EV must be carefully planned and some places in the East and North are unreachable.
I cannot wait for green hydrogen ICE to come on the market. Hydrogen combustion is completely clean. Hydrogen is the most common element on our planet, we will never run out.
Yep. Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe. Sadly, you will be waiting decades before it becomes anything more than a niche market in transportation here on planet earth.
Hydrogen is dead.
Another problem for the Indian government, should they try to ram EVs down the throat of their citizens, a la the West, is that fuel is heavily taxed while domestic electricity rates are subsidised. Petrol costs between the equivalent of USD 4.4 and USD 5.5 per galllon, about 2/3 of that are taxes. On the other hand, there are many electricity connections for the lower income group and farmers that are unmetered and just charged a flat rate monthly. In fairness, they also don’t get electricity reliably. Guaranteed that these will become a cottage industry charging facility! There are many other quirks that will become headwinds for EV adoption in India.
Good set of posts Alan. India is a prime example for a big part of our world which is demanding more and more energy every year as they attempt to improve their lives. They want what we already have; more clean water, electricity, automobiles, etc. All of which need more energy. And they will use whatever is available, which typically means more fossil fuels. They are decades away from mass adoption of EVs. First comes inexpensive ICE motorcycles, then inexpensive ICE vehicles.
In India, 4 wheeler EVs won’t work for multiple reasons. More than 50% of new ICE car sales (bulk of them on bank loans) in India are of cars that cost less than USD 5000. The cheapest EV is about 3X that. Second, the electrical grid is very weak. Many places have rolling black outs as a norm. Bengaluru, the capital of Karnataka, and famous as the IT capital of India, has this problem. Even if generating capacity could be increased, the distribution capacity is limited – the typical house connection is 1-2kW. Setting up supercharger facilities is not economically feasible because apart from grid limitations, our RE cost is so high.
2 wheeler EV will likely do pretty well though. We can currently buy an electric scooter for about USD 1000.
I suspect in a few years you’ll have many EVs to choose from for around $5k USD. They already exist in China.
“Just for sshits and giggles, next shortage highlight. Where is the US going to access its graphite from? Anyone interested in another metal shortage, google graphite shortages.”
link to cips.org.
“A 700,000 tonne shortage of graphite by 2030 demonstrates the need for increased investment in commodity production, or the EV industry could be at risk of “stunted” demand.
Commodity analysts are predicting there will be a severe shortfall of graphite by 2030, a key component in electric vehicle batteries. This could present increased costs for EV manufacturers, which would be passed down to customers, they said.
Market intelligence provider Project Blue expects around 700,000 tonnes “worth of additional capacity to be required by 2030 in order to keep up with demand. It said that while some projects for mining or producing synthetic graphite are in the process of ramping up, the sheer length of time it takes to build processing capacity – up to 25 years in some cases – will constrain the industry.”
A Project Blue research analyst, Reitumetse Chalale, told Supply Management that it is tracking more than 50 natural graphite mining projects outside of China, but they are not close to being operational.
Chalale added: “The shortage in supply rather demonstrates the need for these projects to be developed and supply to ramp up for current battery technology forecasts or else demand will be stunted.”
She explained market trends indicated graphite external to China will be the primary source for the years to come, and that Africa is emerging as an important producer over the coming years. However, as some African producers have already signed offtake agreements with Chinese companies, there won’t be much change in supply chain dynamics. “
Just for sshits and giggles, next shortage highlight. Where is the US going to access its graphite from? Anyone interested in another metal shortage, google graphite shortages.
link to oilprice.com
“There is no immediately viable solution to effectively replace the lithium-ion battery. Industry-wide, the consensus is that graphite will remain the primary anode material in the foreseeable future.
And North America has zero commercial production …
Yet, planned North American battery factories represent some 1 million metric tons per year of demand for graphite anode material.”
I did a talk a few years ago just on the metals issue. China has an obvious market capture on this. The IRA law starts to address this. We will see how this bears out. I just read recently China is no longer our biggest trade partner. Its now Mexico. China wants to stay in the game, they will need to keep their geo politics in check.
Poisons. FF has all kinds of poisons effecting us. Green economy is 535 times less mining in 2040 than FF are today. To be worse for than FF is a really high bar with the vigorousnous that we mine and process it. No wonder that there is so much FUD on this. FF are just that bad.
link to cleantechnica.com
Benzene is another toxin released by oil and gas wells.
“Our study is the first to thoroughly identify that there is a benzene hazard associated with abandoned wells,” said the lead author, Seth Shonkoff, the executive editor of the research institute, PSE Healthy Energy.
Many were releasing benzene, a well-established cause of cancer, along with compounds that damage the nervous, immune and respiratory systems, the researchers reported. They found air concentrations as high as 250 parts per million—250,000 times the California safety threshold of 0.001 parts per million, which public health experts use as a gold standard because it tends to protect the most vulnerable populations, such as children.”
Oil refineries also release benzene. Hopefully you don’t live near one. Unfortunately, some people do.
“Four Louisiana refineries are among a dozen nationwide that last year released the cancer-causing chemical benzene at levels higher than federal limits, according to a new report from a national environmental nonprofit.”
Benzene, which the Environmental Protection Agency considers a “known carcinogen,” is a gaseous compound found in gasoline and other petroleum products. It is known to cause nervous and immune systems damage and leukemia, and companies must create plans to reduce benzene emissions when those emissions exceed the EPA’s 9-microgram limit.”
Wow. That was a lot of posting Jeff. Probably all mostly correct as well.
Problem is, the world will not be able to transition away from fossil fuels anytime soon. And it is going to take decades before EVs replace ICE vehicles in significant numbers.
And yes, eventually renewable energy will be the dominant form of energy on the planet. But that is decades away as well.
And you are probably wasting your time trying to reason with some of the idiots here. They are never going to listen to your arguments. Heck, they don’t even realize that anthropogenic global warming is actually occurring. They think all the warming is natural and that an ice age is coming. Any day now. They only read news from “conspiracies are us”. They are brainwashed. I used to use the IGNORE button on them, but since that is gone, now I simply refuse to read anything they write.
I thrive on idiots Papa Dave. I do speak once in awhile publicly on renewable energy and electrification. Even the liberals will bring up arguments you hear on here. They just aren’t married to them as the righties are based in false fear.
Hey. Whatever turns your crank.
Economic damage alone is way far more expensive than the cost of transitioning to a clean energy economy. And the benefits will be many. Up and out of AGW destruction and into a better healthier life with cleaner air.
link to cleantechnica.com
Air pollution research in Europe has produced an even larger deaths figure, “According to EEA (2019a), in Europe, about 400,000 premature deaths per year are attributable to PM2.5 concentrations long-term exposure.” That’s 400,000 premature deaths per year.
To summarize just some of the harmful effects of fossil fuel use and internal combustion engine emissions:
Asthma
Chronic Obstructive pulmonary disease
Emphysema
Stroke
Ischemic heart disease
Lung cancer
Respiratory infections
Premature deaths
ICE machines cannot get cleaner. Its impossible. EVs in about 30 years will nearly be 100% clean energy running them by that time. Again look at the health effects of combustion.
Exposure to PM2.5 can cause stroke, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections. PM2.5 caused 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2015.
FUD is FUD. Fossil fuels is making us sick. Get to all clean energy and we have better lives for it.
link to cleantechnica.com
The EV critics and anti-EV trolls never mention methane and nitrous oxide emissions associated with and created by gas and diesel-powered vehicles and the gas and oil industry, in the context of climate change. “Nitrogen and oxygen are present in the ambient air, which means they’re present in the air-fuel mixture combusted in all gasoline and diesel engines. During combustion, these elements combine to form NOx. It’s not possible to design an internal combustion engine that does not produce NOx when it burns fuel.”
Again, these emissions do more damage than only at the climate change level. They also harm human health and have been doing so for a long time. (Click on the section, How NOx happens, and why you should care, to see the stats.)
“NOx reacts with atmospheric chemicals to form secondary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), or soot. Exposure to PM2.5 can cause stroke, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections. PM2.5 caused 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2015. When combined with volatile organic compounds and sunlight, NOx helps form ground-level ozone, a major component of smog. Ozone can cause or exacerbate chronic lung diseases like asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or emphysema, especially among vulnerable populations like children and the elderly, for whom it may prove deadly. Researchers attribute 254,000 premature deaths to ozone pollution in 2015.” (The bolding of the disease names was added by the author for easier scanning of the dense text.)
Reply to Jeff Green
“Nitrogen and oxygen are present in the ambient air, which means they’re present in the air-fuel mixture combusted in all gasoline and diesel engines. During combustion, these elements combine to form NOx. It’s not possible to design an internal combustion engine that does not produce NOx when it burns fuel.”
I am glad you brought this up. Ambient air is a major fuel source and forest fuels and fossil fuels are a wonderful catalyst for releasing useful energy. I suspect that the earth could support billions of people with a low tech comfortable lifestyle that would include wood as a cooking and heating source. The wonderful campfire or wood stove produces plenty of NOx and CO2 and is just a byproduct of indigenous lifestyle and technology. Hundreds of millions of humans at one time relied on wood heat for survival and pleasure and a time when the Earth was in the best condition ever.
Indian build little fire and stand close. White man build big Forest Fire and stand far away. Each year forest product is burned because of forest fires due to mismanagement. The amount of forest product accidentally burned each year could easily support a billions of people’s heating and cooking needs.
Controlled deliberate burning of forest product in wood stoves does two things. It rakes the forest floor of debris and fuel load, and it prevents destruction of the important shade canopy, that forest fires destroy.
Electric cars are just an excuse for people who are to lazy to live a symbiotic lifestyle with nature. The atmosphere and the biosphere are wonderful things to burn at a controlled rate. Humanity fell off the wagon and is drunk with technological and anti social warfare behavior rather than living in harmony with what nature provides.
A cubic mile a year of in situ extracted oil is an added bonus, and if used properly could help evolve humanity into a co dependent relationship with nature. Unfortunately human nature and greed get in the way. This same greed will get in the way even with electrified cars.
EVs crush ice cars in what is better for all of us. Some of the articles that I have read is that there are 2 million orphaned oil wells in the United States. Some of them are leaking methane profusely. Now the oil companies just left them behind not taking responsiblity for them. Guess who cleans them up. The taxpayer does. Damages not paid for dealing with in the price of gasoline or our road tax. Billions will be needed. Plus the warming from a potent GHG methane 80 times more than co2.
link to cleantechnica.com
What is also often overlooked is the fact that gas and oil equipment left at field sites that are no longer used or are abandoned continue to leak damaging climate change emissions other than CO2 as well.
“The U.S. figures are sobering: More than 3.2 million abandoned oil and gas wells together emitted 281 kilotons of methane in 2018, according to the data, which was included in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s most recent report on April 14 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.”
Methane contributes to climate change 25 times more than CO2.
How long have the millions of abandoned oil and gas wells contributed to climate change and how will they continue to do so? Methane emissions are not counted by many people in relation to fossil-fuel vehicles because they are unaware of them and because of the overemphasis on CO2. The climate change emissions connected with ICE vehicles goes far beyond their CO2 output, however.
The health improvement from going to clean energy, is very clear. FF burning is bad for our health. As our health improves, so does our productivity in society. To even suggest sticking with burning fossil fuels is good for humans and life on earth is just pure FUD. All the science says differently.
link to cleantechnica.com
“Air pollution from U.S. oil and natural gas production causes roughly $77 billion in health impacts nationwide every year, while also contributing to thousands of early deaths and health flare-ups, a new study finds.
“The pollutants nitrogen oxide, fine particulate matter and ozone from U.S. oil and gas production contributed to 7,500 excess deaths, 410,000 asthma attacks, and 2,200 new cases of childhood asthma across the U.S. in 2016, per the study published Monday in the journal Environmental Research: Health.”
This article is all out FUD fear uncertainty doubt. When it comes to the difference between gas and EVs, EVs just plain win hands down. THe world is heading towards 100% clean energy. Fossil fuels are going to squeal the whole way like hogs getting castrated. Getting off of FF is like an addict shaking heroin. And the FF barrons are taking advantage of it.
link to cleantechnica.com
“Every year, about 15 billion tons of fossil fuels are mined and extracted. That’s about 535 times more mining than a clean energy economy would require in 2040. [Author’s note: I added the bold to the original text to make it more scannable.]
“Part of the reason for this massive difference in mining requirements is the fact that fossil fuel infrastructure is much less energy efficient than clean energy technology. Gas-powered cars are three times less efficient than electric vehicles. Gas furnaces are three to four times less efficient than heat pumps. Coal, oil, and gas all need to be transported long distances from mine or well to the source of combustion.”
The reason I down-voted you is because your comments are nothing but repetitions of dreams. There is nothing wrong with the dream but there is no viable plan to achieve it; just an ad-hoc collection of ideas and financial incentives.
“No plan survives its first engagement with the enemy” is very true but the plan gives you a path and allows for creative changes. It focuses resources on the end game. The goal remains but the route will require adjustment to suit the changing circumstances.
This “green” transition has no viable plan to achieve the lofty goal because those who want to reach the goal refuse to consider the downsides along the route.
“The dream is alive.” but it may kill us all.
Thank you for your honesty. For your information, this dream is becoming reality. Electrification is hitting the S curve now. Also there is a great deal of planning out there for what a mostly electrical society will look like. In a democracy that can look pretty messy, but that is what a democracy does. Fight and squabble until it works out.
FF winning the game starting in the 1800s was a mistake in terms of world wide energy due to the truth of AGW. AGW is what is driving the whole electrification game. Ultimately that is why FFs will lose and RE will win.
If you watch the world as I do, the general plan in almost all 100% RE studies is overproduce, store, transmit more.
Storage is one the big economic expansions of this decade. Get in on the ground floor now.
You are another piece of sh*t just wanting people to eat 3D printed meal and controlable co2 human emissions. And of course you are on the big Elon lobby, I hope you d*e burning on a Ev with all your family ! FACK U
The world society is in transition out of the destructive nature of burning fossil fuels. There are winners and losers in this game. Obviously loser over the long run is fossil fuels. You cannot burn fossil fuels without adding to the problems the earth is facing now from our GHG emissions.
Heartland is just not an honest broker of the truth about climate and even what’s good for life on earth. If something is not good for fossil fuels, then it is bad and should be shunned. Even the fossil fuel companies should start looking at transitioning now. Or will they take us down with them for the sake of their wealth?
link to cleantechnica.com
There’s quite a lot of misinformation and disinformation — deliberate misinformation — about electric vehicles online. One of the key bits of disinformation is the false notion that EVs aren’t that green because there are carbon emissions generated by mining for the materials in their batteries and manufacturing them. The false claim is that an EV owner would have to drive about 49,000 miles to offset the carbon emissions from manufacturing the battery and vehicle. The claim was based on a study that eventually was debunked.
The true figure was about 16,000 miles, after which an EV would be ‘greener’ than a gas- or diesel-powered vehicle. The word greener is in quotes because gas and diesel-powered vehicles are not at all green. They have been dirty ever since they were invented, and at no point could ever be considered green.
Yes. The world is attempting an energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables. But it isn’t going very well. The world has been aggressively adding renewable energy for over two decades now. And yet there hasn’t been a single year yet where the world added enough renewable energy to meet the overall demand growth for energy. Until that happens, the world will continue to use more fossil fuels each and every year.
For example, in spite of the record build out of renewables this year, 2023 will also see the world use record amounts of coal, oil and nat gas. Because the world keeps demanding MORE energy.
So far, the winners are the fossil fuel companies. This seems counterintuitive, but it is something that was predicted many years ago by some very bright people who used to comment on this blog.
Because the world is attempting this energy transition, the expectation is that we will be using less fossil fuel in the future. As a result, the fossil fuel industry is being abandoned by large investors, pensions, banks and other lenders, endowment funds, etc etc etc. The selling pressure from big money dumping their shares has pushed down share prices to historically low levels. And it is much harder for these companies to borrow money to expand now.
Management of these companies have gotten the message. They are scaling back their Exploration and Production spending. Why bother looking for more oil and gas reserves, when those reserves might not be needed in the future? Better to just spend the minimum to produce the reserves that they already have, and use the excess cash flow to pay down and pay off existing debt. Some of the companies I own shares in have already paid off all their debt. The rest are getting close.
In addition to paying off debt, the companies are also using their excess cash flow to buy back their shares at those historically low prices. Some of the companies I own “could” buy back all their existing share with just 3-5 years of that excess cash flow.
And finally, once debt free, these companies are pledging to return all that excess cash flow to shareholders through both buybacks and dividends.
And with that reduced E&P spending, they are ensuring less future supply of oil and gas, even as demand continues to rise for the rest of this decade. Which means upward pressure on oil and gas prices, therefore increasing cash flow even higher. At $80 WTI, these companies are already generating 15% to 20% free cash flow. Add 5% for each additional $10 WTI.
Got oil?
Why am I the only one to upvote your sensible comment?
What mindset is there in the 3 down voters that reject that what you wrote is the truth?
Are they against making money? Money that they could use to make their homes green?
I can understand that they don’t like the oil companies but their zealous natures are just laughable on an economics blog.
Got oil? (Why yes I do)
Lol. That’s because most people here are morons, promoting one extreme view or another. Common sense is not part of their world.
As a result, I tend to p*ss off both sides of the debate; the anti-fossil fuel, pro renewable, world is going to end group; and the anti-renewable, global warming is a hoax, pro conspiracy group. What a bunch of losers.
In addition, people are envious of success. Telling them that I am making scads of money from my oil investments, just makes them want to dislike everything I say.
I don’t burn gas.
Good for you. But many billions of people in the world still do.
RE is now producing more energy in some countries than coal.
In terms of energy expansion, RE is expanding exponentially year after year while FF is expanding in a mere few percent year after year. RE has reached competitive pricing in the marker now.
Part of this is also memory of what appears more reliable. 100 years of burning or a recent history of RE. Go to wiki of 100% RE and you will areas of the world now on 90 to 100% RE.
I guarantee 100% RE will grow year after year. There will reach a tipping point of FF starting to decline. People are having trouble going without FF because of panic inside of letting go.
That is where FUD comes in to keep the panic stirred up and fresh. The lure of saving money with RE is there and will penetrate further with its practicality over FFs. We are in the beginning and FFs will be squealing like castrated pigs the whole way.
What about the high cost problem (without subsidies)? Not only for the high purchase price, but the disposal / replacement parts cost, very potential higher electricity cost, and fires, combustible and electrical issues as well. Etc. To cover the yet known issues that await us. Only time can tell us how much those will impact us as well…
FF has been subsidized world wide for over a hundred years. RE being subsidized for the next 100 years is just fine with me.
Maybe it’s because…
1) They don’t cost a lot.
2) They have far fewer parts than a gas car and hence have far fewer replacement costs. The batteries last a lot longer than gas engines. And EVs are expected to last a lot longer than ICE cars overall. If you’re unlucky enough to get a bad battery, it will cost nothing to replace since they have 8 year warrantees.
3) They cost a lot less to operate than gas cars. You can go over 100 miles for the cost of a gallon of gas. No oil or filter changes. No emissions tests.
4) They catch fire at much lower rates than gas cars.
the climate doomers believe we need to “stop burning, no matter that we fall back to pre steam industry”
no price for unsuitable green is too much
regarding ev, in the north in winter the amp output is reduced! that is chemistry and advertising about other mixes is like selling pasture in greenland
Correct. Saying we should stop using fossil fuels is just as stupid as saying we should stop using renewables.
Chicago area EVs work fine in winter. Both EVs and ICE lose efficiency during winter. Eventually EVs are going to start using bidirectional charging. Which allows the EV to serve as a backup to your house or to make money off of the utility to feed back into the grid. Gasoline just can’t do that. FFs are just a dead horse in the road eventually.
All cars get worse mileage in cold weather.
Bleeding heart liberals and child labor are a hoot. If the child did not work he would starve to death at home. Child labor is the best thing ever happened to starving African children.
I started working at age eleven. The money I earned and saved helped pay for my university education. I have no scars from child labor, but university education was the worst experience of my life.
The answer isn’t more EVs or more ICE vehicles, the answer is less of both. There isn’t enough energy on the planet for 8 billion people to drive BMWs (ice or ev) nor live in 4000 sq ft homes with HVAC. I thought everyone is working from home so why does anyone need a car? I sure don’t.
And some states can’t produce enough electricity now much less throw millions of EV cars on the grid.
link to wfaa.com
Sacrifices are for other people to make.
This article should have been filed under politics.
What about you Mish, have they started coming after you yet for not supporting the left’s clean energy agenda? Several weeks ago this Polish philosopher Professor Ryszard Legutko discussed how the destruction of traditional values and institutions in the name of freedom of pluralism leads to the hegemony of political correctness guarded by liberal states, corporations and international organizations. So many of these climate change activists and organizations think they are special and disregarding objective facts and consequences, are on a mission to create a brave new world, as the liberal state is hyper-active and regulates everything, the way we behave, speak and even think. With regard to climate change and the whole woke agenda a repressive system is developing and those who do not conform are increasingly subject to punishment.
All this is happening here because the Environmentalists and their political lobby demand it. In Europe the same with their Green activists and lobby. The Green cohort has been told everything in this article, and that China and India won’t “join the program”, and even if they did all these policy items will have a micro-effect on the climate.
My hypothesis is that the Green cohorts are religiously pursuing their old program, that they are against pollution, particular example fossil fuel extraction and burning and its resulting pollution, also against every other mining and extractive industry, and they want a much smaller “human footprint” on the planet.
Regarding EVs, the Green cohort would be happy if EVs never replaced all of our vehicles. In Britain they are already pushing for “15 minute cities”, where everything one needs is within a 15 minute walk, and no one needs a vehicle.
Carrying the thought further, when there are insufficient tractors etc. and the fuel to operate them, then Big Ag ends and our cities of necessity will have to empty and masses of people will have to return to the farm to live like peasants of 150+ years ago. Thinkers have commented for years that what the Green cohort advocates will require a standard of living no higher than what existed in 1750 or earlier. (The Green cohort would want a social organization of green socialism, like the ideal of New Harmony or Amana). The Green cohort would also likely want a population level in the world no higher than 1750 as well.
Joe Biden’s policies will result in all the bad that Mish and others say.
To be determined whether those policies are amended and “not applied”.
And also to be determined how strenuously those policies are enforced, and how much smuggling and other informal law-breaking occurs.
I just like saving money but that’s just me. If you like spending your time and money at the gas station and jiffy lube be my guest.
Green energy economy 535 times less mining in 2040 than fossil fuels is today. FF just can’t win in this game.
Ford and GM aren’t making EVs because of government mandates. They’re doing it because if they don’t, they’ll lose all their business to new EVs. The cost of EV production keeps going down while performance keeps going up. In a few years, new EVs will cost way less than comparable gas cars, will have over 500 miles of range on a charge and will be able to charge in under 10 minutes. Plus, their cost of ownership is a lot lower.
Well said Mish. I would add that a big part of the problem is that domestic manufacturers (GM and F) have implicit government guarantee should the EV transition fail. But the bailout bandaid will only hold for so long. Eventually they will collapse for good along with thousands of well paying jobs.
On top of this there are barefooted ten year olds mining rare earth minerals in Africa. Seems to think that no one cares about the human costs of EVs.
The jobs won’t disappear any more than the demand for what they make; new companies will buy the distressed assets and keep supplying into the demand.
Regardless, the “green” revolution is in need of a review.
LFP batteries are the next up and coming chemistry and do not contain rare earths.
Rare earth mining and scarcity hasn’t been a real issue in years.
I had no idea that the biomass industry was so big and destructive. I propose that the biomass industry be replaced with energy that is more concentrated, dense, clean, and efficient: coal, oil, gas, and uranium!
Coal is DEAD in the US. The Biomass Industry in the US is TINY and will be a rounding error in the transition.
It isn’t DEAD yet. Though its use in electricity generation is down by 50% in the last 15 years. Mostly replaced by much cleaner natural gas and a bit of renewable.
There won’t be any new coal plants built in the US ever again.
Yep. But other countries are still building scads of coal fired plants because they HAVE to.
China, which is building more renewables than the rest of the world combined, is also building as many coal plants as they can. So is India.
Because they need MORE energy.
Left out the additional cost of rebuilding roads damaged by exponential forces from the additional weight per wheel for electric battery passenger cars, buses and trucks estimated at 16% to 25% heavier than comparable gasoline powered vehicles. The extra centrifugal forces pounded onto the roadway are already creating a plague of potholes.
but, won’t find any “scientist” to measure the damage and repair.
link to zerohedge.com
Synchronicity. 😊
Green renewable energy is a myth unless we quit with destroying the planet and figure out how to access the energy which the planet and surrounding ‘space’ is continually emitting. Harmonics and such. But it won’t happen in this system of things. CHIAO!!
This is absolute nonsense. Nearly ALL damage to roads is caused by LARGE Trucks, such as Semi’s and other larger vehicles, where the weight per tire is an order of magnitude higher. Small EVs are no more and often LESS heavy than Oversized ICE Pickups and SUVs.
Less brake particles will be in the air with EVs due to regenerative braking. Tires wear out faster, so there will be a little more tire particles airborn.
The force on the road during turning is partially offset by EVs having a lower center of gravity. The batteries are at the bottom of the car, much lower than a gas engine.
AGW is the culprit driving the change off of FFs. 80 94 going around lake MIchigan isn’t going to wear out any faster from the weight of batteries. Huge amounts of trucks go around the lake. No fossil fuel is the goal and gives us a much better earth to live on without them.
Personally, I think plug-in hybrid vehicles are a good option for many, rather than full EVs. Particularly since the charging network is not built out yet. You can keep filling up with gas, when you don’t have the time to charge or a nearby charging source.
With a typical 20-40 mile range on a full charge, that covers 98% of most people’s driving on a daily basis. Buy gas when on the road, and charge the battery when at home.
For every full EV with a 300 mile battery, you can build 10 hybrids with a 30 mile battery, while using the same amount of battery materials.
Ford has a plug-in F150 that seems to be out-selling its F-150 EV. So consumers seem to be thinking the same as me.
As I continue to repeat; its going to be several decades before ICE vehicles start to decline in number.
Got oil?
Finally: A question for Mish. You have been a big proponent of autonomous vehicles for many years. Yet virtually all autonomous vehicles will be full EV.
So , wouldn’t struggles with EVs slow the arrival of autonomous vehicles?
solar generation expansion cannot add kwh demanded by modest population, and gdp growth.
added kwh for ev, and heat pumps will be: oil, gas, coal or nuclear.
zh reported the uk subsidized lease auction for off shore wind May have no bidders.
wind is too expensive to maintain! too many banks will foreclose bc the cost to operator were grossly understated in underwriting the loans.
see German experience 31% electricity from coal after billions in wind
“ solar generation expansion cannot add kwh demanded by modest population, and gdp growth.”
Correct. Same goes for wind. And hydro dams. And nuclear. And coal. And oil. And natural gas.
No single source of energy is enough. Which is why we need them all.
Like crops. We need wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, etc. It would be stupid to say we shouldn’t grow wheat because wheat can’t feed everyone in the world.
Yet that’s what you are saying about solar.
All energy costs something. Having multiple sources of energy helps keep overall costs down.
Imagine how expensive coal would be, if we decided that we were going to try to use only coal for all our energy needs.
I repeat. We need ALL forms of energy. The competition between the different sources helps to keep energy prices lower overall.
The basic design in simulation is about 150% to 200% clean energy mostly wind and solar, with storage and more transmission. Store the peaks of energy and fill in the valleys later. Too anxious to let go of fossil fuels? Keep natural gas around till you don’t use it for several years. By that time, liquid fuels manufactured can be made that are carbon neutral.
Yep. Works great in simulation.
Go ahead. Build out 150% or more of our total energy needs in renewables. Add all the storage you need. Improve the electrical grids as much as you want.
Let me know when you get there. Though I don’t think I can wait another 5 decades or so.
Until then, the world will keep demanding more energy every year. And since renewables cannot even meet that modest demand growth “yet” we will keep burning whatever we can get our hands on in order to keep the lights on. Including coal, dung, and garbage.
All your principles, and concerns go out the window when the power goes out for lack of supply.
The world will keep using MORE fossil fuels every year for quite a few more years. I cannot change that fact. But I can profit from it.
Doesn’t mean I’m going to stop talking about it. AGW is the driver of all this, and the more we change out, the better off the world is.
ICE Vehicles are ALREADY declining in number. The Best Selling Vehicle in the ENTIRE World is an EV. The Model Y. It’s no longer a Toyota. Nearly every vehicle taken off the road as they age out are ICE. In some countries that are 5+ years ahead in the transition to EVs up to 90% of New Vehicle Sales are EVs. Nearly every Developed Advanced Economy in the World is ahead of the US in EVs…The US is just playing catch-up and the Death of ICE vehicles will be obvious, even in the US in the next 7 years.
“ ICE Vehicles are ALREADY declining in number.”
Perhaps you mean ICE vehicles annual sales are declining in number? That would be correct. From a peak of 86 million in 2017 to 69 million in 2022.
1 out of every 7 vehicles sold is now electric. Which means 6 out of 7 are still ICE. So the total number of ICE vehicles is still going up. Estimates for 2023 are 66 million more ICE vehicles added to the world total of 1.456 billion.
The overall number of ICE vehicles in the world won’t begin to decline till sometime in the next decade.
Got oil?
Hybrids are the most unreliable cars ever made and they catch fire a lot more than BEVs. If you use gas, you’re carrying around a lot of extra battery weight. If you use the battery, you’re carrying a lot of unused engine weight. Very inefficient.
Yep. All true. They are not perfect. Nothing is.
But they would increase the number of vehicles running on electricity by a factor of 10x per year compared to full EVs and reduce the amount of gasoline burned much faster. They are an easier sell to people worried about range and charging. They provide flexibility.
Ten vehicles running on electricity 98% of the time vs one vehicle running on electricity 100% of the time. Less pollution. Less GHG emissions. Less full ICE only vehicles on the roads.
The world can achieve its goals faster with plug in hybrids than it can with full EVs.
PHEVs have been available for close to a decade now and they don’t sell well. People don’t plug them in, so they’re essentially driving a more inefficient gas car. They cost a lot more than gas and BEVs since they have all the costs of a gas car and EV. They break down a lot since they’re the most complex cars and have a lot more things that can break. They’ll completely go away once BEVs take over.
I know of a guy that loves his Volt and calls it the best deal around. Charges off of 120 volts.
1) Between 11AM and 4PM, at peak consumption & prices, CA energy arteries are clogged by energy from the sun. “Other” sources provide energy after sunset.
2) CA is the petri dish of the EV industry.
3) Instead of options to reduce risk, Ford and GM were fully committed to EV.
There might be a price to pay if EV is a fad.
4) China expanded their EV profile in Asia, Europe and Africa, selling cars between $10K/30K. For BYD safe batteries with lower range are better than unsafe batteries with higher range. Four died in NYC in June when ebike shop went in flames.
5) The EV innovators co cannibalized themselves in China and US. China, waiting on the sideline, might takeover US.
Someone forgot to tell Tesla nobody wants an ev so they just keep making and selling them. Weird.
Seriously, the issue here is everyone being taken to the woodshed by Tesla. Nobody wants their cars because Teslas are cheaper/better. Eventually that will change but the old auto industry is indeed in for some trying times.
I’ve seen precisely one Tesla in my life. Wherever they are selling them it’s not here.
A possible reason for this (other than nowhere to charge them) is winter. Is there a correlation between minimum winter temperatures and Tesla sales?
Seems like every third car in SoCal is a Tesla. You see them where people have money.
Chicago area has cold winters, lots of Teslas and lots of chargers. I charge mine in the garage. We have high priced gas and good rates on electric. Giving a nice savings margin for EVs.
Many people don’t have garages. How well do they charge when outside overnight?
I’ve charged mine through 3 winters outside without any problems. I’m seeing more Level 2 chargers at businesses, motels, etc. Apartment complexes are starting to address this problem.
I run an extension cord from an outside electrical socket to my charge cord. Most houses have outside sockets.
Outside charger plugin. You can litteraly charge with 120 volts AC. Just takes several times longer. On a typical day’s usage the car will fill up most of the time. Go to a super charger to occasionally catch up.
Tesla’s Model Y is the Best Selling Vehicle in the ENTIRE WORLD. Including Norway, which is chock full of Cold, Snow and Winter as a decent part of the country is above the Arctic Circle. They replaced Toyota Corolla as the best selling vehicle this year. And sales continue to grow along with manufacturing capability in Germany…not exactly a “Tropical or Desert Climate”.
CLEARLY they’re going to take a huge hunk out of the Old Legacy ICE Manufacturers that have been slow on the draw.
Where the heck do you live? Teslas are as common as potholes everywhere in Colorado.
Personally I just use my ev to save a ton of money. If you like lighting your money on fire (literally) then you don’t need one.
…cue the folks who need to pull their wakeboat across 5 states…
We recently rented a tesla3 for a week. We had no intention of buying one and we’re just curious about them. I can see a number of downsides but also have to admit it’s fun to drive. The batteries give it a low center of gravity and handling and cornering is excellent . Acceleration is awesome.
Democrats have the majority of the wealth in the country and it would work for many of them. For Families in the top 20% living in cities and suburbs with two vehicles and an at home charging station it would work out well. For the rest of us 80% not so much.
Buy used. I have never purchased a new EV.
It already works out well in many countries that don’t fit those Demographic Profiles. Plenty of Independents and some Reps already own EVs. The costs are being driven down as more and more of the ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs Globally…and in the US. It’s doubling every year or two.
I have 2 in my garage. I would guess half of new cars bought in my neighborhood this year have been Tesla’s. And I’m not in California.
I think I need to buy a horse & buggy. Time to start living life in the slow-lane. Maybe I’ll convert to Amish. They seem to live a pleasant, albeit hard-working, lifestyle. I was always impressed with their farms.
Solar panels are very inefficient, the best available are well under 20% efficient, and they are very expensive. In addition as the solar panels get hot, above 70 degrees F, they lose more efficiency, and at 85 to 90 degrees F, the efficiency is substantially under 10%…………These numbers are incredibly bad, so much so that currently solar is worthless and it can’t be used for base load electricity generation, even worse than worthless, because natural gas, coal, oil or nuclear must be used with solar to support base load electricity needs………..informed people just say NO to solar at this point in time.
I will repeat my earlier comment:
We need ALL energy; fossil fuel, renewable and nuclear. Each has its pros and cons. Claiming that we shouldn’t use renewables is just as stupid as saying we shouldn’t use fossil fuels or nuclear.
We need to expand nuclear over the coming decades, keep building renewables, and we need to keep using fossil fuels.
Its ALL of the above.
20% of free energy from the sun is still free.
ICE engines are 30% efficient, and the fuel has to be hauled halfway across the planet.
Sunshine is free. Capturing energy from the sun is not free.
MUCH cheaper than drilling down miles offshore and through incredibly difficult wells….THEN shipping that OIL to Refineries…spending a LOT of money refining it with a lot of waste and pollution in the process…
THEN shipping the Distillate Products (Gasoline, Diesel, Etc.) burning OIL / Diesel in THOUSANDS of Trucks every single day to ship to Gas Stations where it can actually be accessed.
THEN Burning that Gas / Diesel in highly inefficient engines that only are about 30% efficient, because MOST of an explosion / combustion is wasted in Heat, Vibration and Noise…instead of actually making the vehicles move.
Ancient Tech…that’s being replaced at a rapid pace. By the end of the decade, a majority of New Vehicles Sold in the Three Largest Markets (China, EU, US) will be EVs…and they will be at a volume that ICE can’t compete with any longer.
Solar isn’t free, my sons tenants solar hot water system failed last month. It was leaking badly from a crack. Stupid design means it was unrepairable and replacement quote was over $6000. So the plumber just put a heating element in the tank and saved my son over $5000. The electricity will cost my son less than $300/year which is far less than spending $6000+ on solar that is only under warrantee for 12 months and with an expected lifespan of well under 20 years.
The energy source is free.
You clearly DON’T know how Solar works. When you have Solar on your house…plus Battery Storage…you generally DON’T NEED “Grid Baseload”.
Your Solar provides the vast majority of your Electricity…You sell / supply Electricity BACK to the Grid during the daylight hours from excess Solar Generate…and reduce the amount of Baseload Needed from Fossil Fuels Generation. You charge your vehicles from either your Solar Directly, if they’re there during the day or from your Storage at night.
Baseload includes a massive amount of WASTED energy that has to run at ALL times to stop the Grid from Crashing from usage that’s higher or lower during normal periods.
As more and more Solar, Wind and especially Storage comes online, less and less will be needed from Fossil Fuels generation.
Most new solar panels have efficiencies around 23%. And they do lose efficiency at temps 80F or higher, but not at nearly the rate you think they do. About 0.5% for every 2 degrees F. Or 1% for every 10F.
I find that solar works for me. I drive electric and my electrical costs are about half that of gasoline. Thus solar is paying for itself. If I drive 10K miles a year at an equivalent of 30 mpg and gasoline is $3.50/gallon, I’m contributing $583 to paying off the cells.
I’ll also add that according to Exxon we peaked in WORLD crude oil production in 2018. There is a chance that it will re-peak near 2032. After that, the peak will be behind us. Natural gas is forecast to peak around 2050. We need to **discuss** our energy needs going forward. How do we transition away from fossil fuel usage whether it is curb climate change or just to get to work or fuel for transportation of food, etc. What are the pros and cons? What can we live with? what can we do without or find alternatives?
On your list of “Demand Flops” that home chargers are destined to follow the UK and be on separate meters so that EV charging will be at higher rates.
I don’t see how this doesn’t occur. They do this now with water in my City. I have had them pull into my driveway and knock on my door about a faucet left (barely) on overnight outside watering. I thought it was great for conservation to be sure, but let’s hope it doesn’t go too far, and rationing becomes an issue…
I can see this going places not intended by most people, but the road is slowly being paved. Use water when we LET you, and charge your cars when we LET you, and Spend your $ on what we LET you. Good intentions don’t always turn out so good, if it doesn’t come with hardline restrictions in place from the very start. Things that don’t legally allow changes unless it passes the test laid out, and updated regularly. If you can’t get there, then SCRAP the idea immediately IMO.
Should be pretty straightforward to rewire the electrical box to move the EV charger off the metered connection and onto one of the regular connections in the box.
The Brits may lie down and allow that to happen but here in America it won’t take long for people to get around it. There is no way to prevent homeowners from doing it.
I’m not that confident that it will be possible to connect your recharger to your regular power supply.
The cars will have onboard recorders that keep track of everything. Cars location, time of charging, charger identification number etc. Think it won’t detect anomalies like your charger station charging your car when your authorised smart meter doesn’t show usage? They will fine you, disable your car, restrict your power supply and perhaps just because they can they will pass your details in to the DMV, IRS, FBI, credit rating bureaus and lower your Social Credit Score.
Connecting the charger to the box yourself is easy. I had a friend who wired his own after going to Home Depot and getting a few parts. Said it took him less than 4 hrs to do the entire thing including drilling the hole in the wall in the garage for the electrical cable and connecting up the charger etc.
The question becomes CAN they do all the other things. Maybe, maybe not and I recall lots of people getting around catalytic converters back in the days when they seriously impeded performance. People will always find a way and once they do, it will be available to everyone on the internet in 10 minutes time.
Fossil fuels was not the main cause of the population explosion it was the monetary policies (i.e. debt creation out of thin air) that led to exploration, mining and refining. Turn back the clock and think if money was only available from people and corporations who created wealth and saved….how would you think the world would look today?
The entire world would look a lot like a third world country today. Huge disparity in income. Wealth concentrated among the very few. And a standard of living about 90% lower than what the US has now. Thank goodness for loose money AND fossil fuels.
“Huge disparity in income.”
“Thank goodness for loose money.”
After all, nothing reduces disparity of income, like robbing the rest by debasement, and handing the loot to Goldman Sachs and similar leeches. Who all, to a person, produce absolutely nothing whatsoever in return for the wealth that debasement driven redistribution takes from others and gives to them.
Is it your contention that there isn’t a huge disparity in income? A handful of multi-billionaires and several billion who are subsistence (or below) would indicate otherwise.
The Northeast also has a great deal of cloud coverage, and I found that out when I performed a solar energy survey in the mid 1980’s. Thermal energy was best stored in a salt bath.
I would like to add that applying stove paint (>95% solar absorbtivity) to a galvanized garbage can will generate enough hot water (>145 deg F) for the daily use of a 4 person household.
They Northeast also has Wind, Off-Shore Wind and has access to MASSIVE Hydro from Canada and update New York. The Northeast will be fine.
Read the recent article in Barrons on offshore wind. Unprofitable, way more expensive, unsightly, bird killers. Most of these projects are being cancelled by the builders as they are unprofitable.
Spot on. Check out the research firm Goehring and Rozenzwacjg. They have a number of articles explaining how cost inefficient green energy is. They do say nuclear is a good cost effective solution. The brain washing by Brandon et al is unforgivable.
We need ALL energy; fossil fuel, renewable and nuclear. Each has its pros and cons. Claiming that we shouldn’t use renewables is just as stupid as saying we shouldn’t use fossil fuels or nuclear.
Nuclear is only a small part of the energy answer. After 70 years, it still only provides 4% of the world’s energy needs. It’s a big stretch to think it will contribute even 10% by 2040 because it takes a crap load of money and a decade or more to build a nuclear plant.
We need to expand nuclear over the coming decades, keep building renewables, and we need to keep using fossil fuels.
Its ALL of the above.
If they put as much effort into nuclear as they are wasting on green renewable we could get to 100% nuclear. France, now known for it enginerring expertise at one point had all of their power plants nuclear.
You might enjoy reading, Jerome Corsi’s “little” book, available in paperback
– “The Great Oil Conspiracy” . He discusses the discoveries made by German scientists during Hitler years .Who knew !
Well put Shedlock!! A brilliant observation! I only wish I could post this to my Twitter account.
These guys were Commodities traders and Asset Managers…they Traded in OIL, Coal, Gas and other Fossil Fuels. Look at their website and all they talk about is OIL and other Energy Commodities. NOT a good source for a dying set of industries.
They lay out the facts /fallacies of green enery. Liberal greenies don’t like facts when they make decisions. Just because they are commoditiy researches does not invalidate the truth. Renewables as of now are a waste of money. Most of the sea based turbine projects are being cancelled, read the recent Barrons’ article on that.
No. They laid out the Fossil Fuels wish list of issues for Green Energy. No externalities for Fossil Fuels Pollution, Health Issues created or other problems caused by the need to ship Fossil Fuels Globally and their major interruptions possible.
“Spot on. Check out the research firm Goehring and Rozenzwacjg. They have a number of articles explaining how cost inefficient green energy is.”
x1000
I also suggest reading the Goehrig reports. They describe Bidens IRA as the greatest mal investment in history. No doubt, the US will experience its European moment going full bore into insanity. Germany has spent hundreds of billions on renewables and now uses more coal than ever. Germany is rapidly deindustrializing and I expect it to pick up steam. A cold winter will be entertaining for Europe.
The greatest multiple scam alias Realist (papascam, jeffgreen, imgreen, mpo) complaining nonstop. Remember a few years back realist pumping Ballard power, check Ballard power out now. Too bad we cant check histories of posters.
Also check out this report involving the Bidens greatest mal investment in history.
link to mdpi.com
realist Im still confused about why the blue states are gonna lead the renewable transition? Sounds pretty much like the rest of the bs you spew.
“Germany uses more Coal than ever”. Baloney. That’s a buncha bunk…and easy to show as false. Google it.
Germany made a mistake and trusted the Russians for their Gas and OIL. Bad Idea from the outset…pretty much EVERYONE warned them NOT to do so…now they’re temporarily paying for it. As more and more people switch off OIL…and more and more LNG Terminals are set up, that problem begins to go away.
The entire Developed World will be using EVs and more renewables before the end of the Decade. It’s already happened outside the US. It will rapidly follow inside the US. There’s a reason the Best Selling Vehicle in the Entire World is now an EV.