K street Ka$h article on Bitcoin. Had to come out. Taxes could be built right into every transaction. But its not in the industries best interests. Money talks and …..
2. Buy truly massive amounts of the stable coin, continuing to push the price over $1. That would that have triggered them to create more stable coin, and destroy Luna, making Luna go up further
3. Sell the Luna, and go short Luna
4. Sell the stable coin, pushing the price under $1. That would have triggered them to buy/destroy stable coin, selling more Luna
5. To raise $1 to buy a stable coin when Luna was $100 would take 1/100 of a Luna. By $1 it took a whole Luna. By $.01 they had to issue 100 Luna to buy a single stable coin. So, the implosion of Luna continued until it was worthless.
We’ve seen this same mechanism before. About 20 years ago, companies desperate for additional money would take out an equity line of credit. Once they started drawing on it, the lender would short the stock until the value of the stock was 0.
Note that even if the plan was not to drive Luna to 0, if I understand the lunar-stable coin design correctly, it was a situation where a speculator could sell a large speculative position without the price falling by simultaneously buying the related stable coin. It seems that a fund could have cycled it’s position indefinitely, buying Luna (making price rise), sell Luna for a profit by simultaneously buying the stable coin to prevent Luna from falling, then selling the stable coin for par (making Luna fall), then rinse and repeat ad infinitum, or at least, until someone else drove Luna to 0.
Bam_Man
1 year ago
Turned out in fact to be “rat poison, cubed.”
1-shot
1 year ago
I went to the Miami Bitcoin convention last month just for shits and giggles … and boy was it fun. All the crypto bros swearing on their mothers’ savings that Bitcoin was gonna hit $100,000 before the end of the year and $350,000 soon after that.
Total testostomorons !!!
That’s like me saying the average home price is $350,000 today and it’s going to $700,000 by December and $2.5 million the next year.
BTW bitcoin had just hit $48,000 that week. Nice 40% move since then … DOWN!
Esclaro
1 year ago
Gold, the original crypto, is dumping again today! Look out below! $1500 here we come!
Except for 2 brief bursts over $2,000 caused by extraordinary events (pandemic and russia war) it has been trading in 1700-1900 range for quite a while. That will continue.
Looks like there might be a backwardation if my price feeds are up to date.
Spot physical Gold is 1811 bid and June futures are 1809.
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Papa Jerome only raised rates to 1%, and dominos are falling. What’s next?
ColoradoAccountant
1 year ago
Wow!!
shamrock
1 year ago
I don’t understand the appeal of a stablecoin, you can’t make a profit if it’s always worth $1, you just take on a boatload of risk. Just put a dollar in your mattress.
davidyjack
1 year ago
Thank you for talking clearly about CryptoCurrency. Also, kudos for posting about the Suicide Prevention Hotline.
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Low-hanging fruit always gets eaten first. Bitcoin will likely rot for a while longer before it falls to the ground.
whirlaway
1 year ago
Well, this was all so unexpected! LOL
KidHorn
1 year ago
They’re all worthless. Not a question of if they all fail. A question of when.
And don’t start nonsense about FIAT currencies being worthless. They’ve been accepted in trade for hundreds of years.
Some years back, Bill Fleckenstein made the point that even the crappiest of fiat currencies have some kind of taxing authority and a standing army or police force to back them.
I don’t fully understand why this particular crypto went to zero value. I do believe Cryptos are intrinsically worthless, but I don’t understand the mechanics of this decline. I’m assuming a fortunate few made an awful lot of money- it’s a zero sum game….or is it not?
The short story is LUNA founder Do Kwan got duped by some capitalists who borrowed a mountain of BTC and offered Do a batch at discount for lots of UST which they used to crash LUNA by unleashing forced margin selling when their shorts on UST caused panic in LUNA (the two are a pair, scuse me were a pair). It helps they knew lots of the float was locked up via staking. Just wait, the stories will circulate far and wide. I know someone who is down 50K+ and those screen shots Mish shared, I wouldn’t doubt them given what we already know.
Sure, there was panic when Luna crashed, but no panic was needed to drive Luna down, and panic alone would never have driven it to zero in any case. However, when UST broke $1, they had to issue more Luna to buy UST, which drove Luna down. As Luna fell, for each share of UST they bought, they had to sell progressively more Luna, which did drive Luna to zero.
Anyone holding a coin that is near the top of the list of TVL (total value locked, staked) should consider this a cautionary tale. Anyone who stakes coins without knowing all the details might as well admit they are okay if their money lights on fire at any given moment.
“There are now 25 billion Luna coins, up 24 billion today”
Luna is a crytpo currency but it functions like a fiat currency in that there is an infinite supply. That’s because it’s pegged to the US dollar so it rises and falls just like any other currency (fiat). People lost faith like they did with Zimbabwe money and it hyper inflated.
Bitcoin and many others have a finite supply so this type of event can’t happen to those cryptos (they can go to zero value but only if no one wants them anymore).
What I am guessing happened (I haven’t read this anywhere) is this: When the stablecoin fell, they started buying it, and to buy it, they sold luna. As luna fell, they had to sell progressively more luna to buy each stablecoin. As luna approached 0, the number of luna which needed to be sold approached infinity.
ZZR600
1 year ago
I feel sorry for people who have lost money here. Many might have been burned by previous stock market crashes and wanted an alternative. The reality is that global Central Bank funny money is making it harder and harder for families to make ends meet, so alternative investments that may offer someone an opportunity to get ahead of inflation will appear attractive.
I have zero sympathy. High returns come with high risk–you better know what you are doing if you play; and most do not. I am no different about having sympathy for gamblers at Vegas who can’t leave the table with their winnings, but stay because they think they can beat the house. At the end of the day, investing is all about fundamentals (research) and probabilities–an informed crap shoot.
The sad thing is a great many ‘moms and pops’ are about to get their net worth massively lowered–the direct result of the Fed setting interest rates close to zero, (negative real rates) and voiding the normal risk-return relationship.
Agreed. Any idiot that buys crypto, which produces no products, provides no services, has no earnings and has no intrinsic value other than finding some dumber idiot to buy it, deserves to lose all their money.
Markets have a way of making stupid money disappear …. poof!!!
I hope that every coin fails. They arent money and no soverign requires them. Useless fabrications that just burn up the planet. Anyone who ever owned one should be executed.
I think his point is it takes a lot of energy to mine one Bitcoin… “an average of 143,000 kWh of energy is required to produce one bitcoin.”
“University of Cambridge pegs Bitcoin’s annual energy usage at around 70 TWh as of July 15, 2021, which is about 0.32% of the
total power usage on earth and a little more than the annual power
consumed by Austria.
Correct me if I am wrong, but the energy usage was built in to mimic gold mining which require a lot of sweat and energy. You know, like playing some kid’s games.
Not if many borrowed to buy crypto, and put up gold as collateral.
TechLover1
1 year ago
I expect more coins to go through this in the next few months.
Once a few more of these fail, the rest will fail very rapidly. Not just because users will head for the exits. There will be another rush to cash out from founders/insiders. They can “rug pull” overnight. There will also be “thefts/hacks” which will be pointed to malicious/outside actors but might be carried out by insiders/developers of these coin projects. Bottom line is that this whole sector is full of scam artists and cheats and once they figure out that their plan to get billions in a ponzi is not going to work, they will make a decision to get just millions and abscond away.
the general idea – that you ‘convert’ real-money into funny-money – and the earn astronomic interest by doing nothing with it – is already quite hilarious. (how exactly is that supposed to work, if it wasn’t a Ponzi-scheme ?)
without these articles on mishtalk – i’ve never knew about this stupidity … – I completely ignored it before. This too applies to Bitcoin – the whole purpose of ‘having’ some – for the majority is just “wait until it doubles”. That’s not going to work … and it’ll be like with dominoes …
IMHO, the reason for a general crypto selloff is due to panic selling due to $UST & $LUNA falling. Privacycoins like $XMR provide an excellent way to save capital without the prying eyes of govt or big tech. Physical gold provides the same benefit of privacy.
How, exact;y, does one save capital with something entirely digital, when its sole source of value is a few years of perceived value by a small group of people?
As for privacy? (aka Monero transactions are confidential and untraceable.) Good luck on that. In the ongoing search for viruses, certain internet hubs now have ‘ways’ of determining content, even for encrypted data. If it fails the ‘smell’ test, content gets special attention. One has to assume that includes tracing.
Yes, this is exactly like with dotcom bubble. The flaky website “companies” like etoys, barbecue.com etc., were the first to go down in flames, but it took many months before the big darlings like Intel, Cisco, Sun Micro etc., were hit.
total power usage on earth and a little more than the annual power
consumed by Austria.
Modern blockchains don’t require this.
Thanks, makes sense. Although I thought most crypto holders thought gold was an old relic so wouldn’t have any. 🙂
(how exactly is that supposed to work, if it wasn’t a Ponzi-scheme ?)
This too applies to Bitcoin – the whole purpose of ‘having’ some – for the majority is just “wait until it doubles”.
That’s not going to work … and it’ll be like with dominoes …
IMHO, the reason for a general crypto selloff is due to panic selling due to $UST & $LUNA falling. Privacycoins like $XMR provide an excellent way to save capital without the prying eyes of govt or big tech. Physical gold provides the same benefit of privacy.