What’s the matter with these people? Trump says the economy is humming.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary survey results for November 2025.
Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this November, led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and a 11% decline in year-ahead expected business conditions. With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy. This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation. One key exception: consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets. Interviews for this release closed prior to Tuesday’s elections.
Consumer Sentiment Declines to Near Lowest on Record
Bloomberg reports US Consumer Sentiment Declines to Near Lowest on Record
The preliminary November sentiment index dropped 3.3 points to 50.3, just above a June 2022 reading of 50 that was the weakest in University of Michigan data back to 1978. The gauge was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown.
The drop in overall sentiment was broad across age, income and political groups, the report showed. Among Democrats and political independents, confidence slid to the lowest in data back to 1984.
“Consumers perceive pressure on their personal finances from multiple directions,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “Consumers also anticipate that labor markets will continue to weaken in the future and expect to be personally affected.”
Consumer Sentiment Current Conditions vs Expectations
Current conditions did hit a new all-time record low of 52.3 vs 53.8 during the covid pandemic.
Expectations are now 49.0 vs the pandemic low of 47.3.
Trump Doubles Down
NBC reports Trump doubles down on the economy despite a strong rebuke from voters
“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O’Donnell for CBS’ “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term is blowing it away.”
Two days later, voters blew away Republican candidates up and down the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey, results that reinforced NBC News polling showing that the vast majority of voters — about two-thirds — think the president hasn’t lived up to his promises to curb inflation and improve the economy. The common watchword for Democratic candidates who won on Tuesday — both progressives and centrists — was “affordability.”
Like Trump, Biden argued that the broader economy was strong, even as taxpayers suffered. And like Trump, Biden watched his party’s fortunes change at the ballot box a year after his own election.
“As our economy has come roaring back, we’ve seen some price increases,” Biden said in July 2021. “Some folks have raised worries that this could be a sign of persistent inflation. But that is not our view. Our experts believe, and the data shows, that most of the price increases we’ve seen are expected to be temporary.”
“The reason I don’t want to talk about affordability is because everybody knows that it’s far less expensive under Trump than it was under ‘Sleepy Joe Biden,’ and the prices are way down,” he said of his predecessor in remarks to reporters last week.
“The economic statistics may be great, and in President Biden’s case they were,” Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod said in an exchange of text messages. “But when prices are too high and the messenger keeps saying ‘No, you’re wrong, the economy is actually fantastic,’ the messenger starts to lose credibility with voters.”
Hoot of the Day
Trump says he does not want to talk about affordability because it’s great.
Excuse me, but if affordability was great, Trump would not shut up about it.
Wossamotta U
Please play the video. It’s a riot. Canadian readers will especially enjoy it.
Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
On October 5, I noted Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.
Laffer, a free trade advocate understands he cannot say anything bad about tariffs or Trump will personally attack him.
Everyone in the administration understands the setup.
But “Wait Till 2026” is a fundamental mistake. When 2026 is bad, the message will have to change.
Here’s a Much Better Slogan for Trump
Trump Proposes $2,000 to Everyone
On November 9, I noted Trump Labels Those Against Tariffs as “Fools”, Proposes $2,000 to Everyone
Trump proposes another massive wealth redistribution scheme.
Four Trump Tariff Positions
- Use Tariffs to eliminate the deficit and pay down debt
- Use tariffs to bring production back to the US
- Use tariffs as a redistribution scheme to give everyone $2,000
- Use tariffs to pay for the damage Trump he caused to farmers
$2,000 Redistribution Math
- Total Population: 343 Million – Cost $686 Billion
- Noninstitutional Population Age 16+ of the US: 274 million – Cost $548 Billion
- Noninstitutional Population Subset: 200 Million – Cost $400 Billion
Since US consumers pay tariffs, what Trump proposes is one of the biggest wealth redistribution schemes in history.
And the redistribution schemes don’t stop there.
For discussion, please see How to Judge the Shutdown Deal: Look at the Reaction of Gold and Bonds
We have a deal. It will increase the deficit more than anyone can foresee now.
The direct cash to consumers is the start of Universal Basic Income (UBI). And now Republicans own that.
This mechanism once started will never end. Money handouts will go up and up and up.
It’s Trump’s Economy Now!
It’s Trump’s economy now and he is cracking under pressure.
He has resorted to buying votes with massive redistribution schemes hoping to cover up the mistakes of his foolish tariffs.
Consumers are not fooled with his “Wossamotta U” explanations that this is the best economy ever.
It’s pathetic, but Trump now sounds like Joe Biden.
“Still quoting the forces of evil as if they were reliable sources of information rather than Intel Blob propaganda, Bloomberg (Evil) NBC News (Evil)”
OK Tom
1: What conspiratorial bullshit source do you want me to quote?
2: What exactly did Bloomberg say you disagree with?
OK have at it. Those with TDS and TWS attack sources rather than make objective comments.
Actually I believe BBerg tries really hard to have informed and thoughtful stories.
Shooting the messenger is one of the oldest critiques in the book.
“Two days later, voters blew away Republican candidates up and down the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey”
Trump fired 100K federal employees & now he’s agreeing to bring some back. Definitely a win for the Dems, but this is reason #1 why Sears was resoundingly defeated. And there certainly would have been bleed over into New Jersey.
Be that as it may, I agree. Trump owns the economy. The tax cuts should help, but will it be enough to overcome tariffs & the overall building inertia towards a recession? No, probably not, so you own it TACO.
Too bad we didn’t figure out sooner rather than later that the BLS was peddling dog crap for jobs data. Would that have changed Trump’s tariff policy? Maybe but with TACO you never know.
Syria became an independent state in 1946. Today a Syrian president visited the white house for the first time in 80 years. Nixon flipped Egypt to the west. Trump flipped Syria to the US. Biden flipped the US to China.
Stupid sheeple who know they are stupid are better than stupid sheeple who think they are smart.
If Intel, AMD, NVDA and the software co cannibalize each others – when their bubble will burst – AI benefits. AI will get their chips and capex at half prices. If that happens the need for fat cells (energy) will decline. Thus when the mag7 selling cont good things can happen. We can beat China’s energy vertical rise with more efficiency.
Here he is again, another dumb comment that is not even understandable. AI is a scam, another 2000 internet hype that will crash & burn.
Your edit made it worse, keep digging….
AI isn’t NVDA, MSFT, Oracle, the wind, the sun and GEV batteries. When they deflate AI will get their software and chips for half prices. Thereafter innovative AI co will hire, find new customers, expand vol, become profitable and reach a market cap of $1T or above. Their VC investors will salivate. But first the mag 7 have to deflate !
my edit was stopped.
China overextended energy production is equal to the US and the EU combine. Chinese official threaten to behead Japan’s new PM.
Is the stock market a sign of success or the greatest sign yet of record stupidity, leverage & greed? I think it’s obvious. This all ends very badly, depression & chaos, for the US, total ruin.
Now then, most everyone seems to be in agreement. Carry on.
“Most everyone” why isn’t everyone enough, how can it be most everyone? It’s either most or everyone. Harry needs to go back to school.
I can’t see or read you Jack. Best that way, else I might lose my temper.
Everything in the markets is soaring today, including $Melania meme coin, which has doubled in price in the last 24 hrs. to 20 cents.
I was advising everyone to put their life savings into $Melania meme coin and if they did that yesterday they could have made a killing.
And if they had done it 6 months ago they would have been killed. How deranged you must be to isolate a microcosm of time(yesterday to today) as a measure of success while deducting the 99.9999% of the time it’s crashing towards it’s intrinsic value of zero. You shouldn’t be advising anyone, unless you aim is to ruin them.
I didn’t think it was necessary to add an /s to my post, and now you got me thinking whether your post should also have an /s after it.
So are the Epstein files going to get released when the House is back in session? Inquiring minds want to know.
Never!! Cause they’re all guilty, that’s why they got the job, you don’t believe they’re voted in do you?
Biden post covid stimulus payment of up to $1,200, $600, then $1,400 ( three rounds )
Demand was high suddenly and supply was restricted due to Covid lock up.
Resulting inflation was going up from about 1,8% to 9.1%
Now this time, Trump offering 2000$ -? -?
Demand will be high obviously and supply is restricted due to tariff.
Inflation will certainly go up from current 3% to -? -?
Second wave of inflation is coming.
Sell Treasury.
Buy GOLD.
Sell Treasuries, sell gold, sell silver, sell property unless it’s ya home. Sell absolutely everything & buy food, seeds, spare parts, spare tools. When this collapse happens gold will get crushed also. If you can’t eat it, can’t make money or barter with it get rid. Also get knowledge, it’s knowledge & skills that’ll save ya ass not gold or silver cuz the Gov will just make em illegal & demand you hand it in.
Gold exceptionally well in Great Depression 100 years ago.
Consumer sentiment should be going down. The bottom 70% of people aren’t thriving economically, and they don’t know what to do. No one seems to have any ideas other than UBI and antidepressants. The smell of weed is everywhere.
Nothing wrong with weed, it’s Gods natural medicinal gift if ya know what strains are suitable for what. The economy is collapsing & the propaganda machine is working hard to deny it.
Alcohol (The Devils urine) & prescription poison is the real enemy, plus destroyed education system which has been churning out dumb asses for decades.
way worse than that. since 1898 amerikans have been voting for nonstop worldwide warfare. we are just latter day european empire. we’ll go the way of the USSR and nazi germany and fascist italia. the rest is eyewash. amerikans believe their own bullshit or they are so jacked up on drugs and anti depressants and entertainment they are really just nihilists. evil empires occur. some by tyranny. some by democracy. read history.
That’s all true, I’m very aware of history. I just do not have time to write a thesis on the ill of the US & it’s demise in granular detail. Unfortunately 99% of US citizens a blind until it’s their heads rolling.
If Al Capone was around today he’d be selling bootleg medical insurance.
If Al Capone was around today he’d be President, working in the Senate or congress.
US economy is trickle down.
The Rich will get richer.
The Poor will get poorer obviously.
The Poor has to wait. I don’t know till when as The Rich take all the money?
Now they even want to take away SNAP.
SNAP is actually bribe to the poor not to make revolution. If people have nothing to eat they all will come out to the street.
Thats why the wealthy republicans liked regan so much
China rules with an iron fist. The EU leaders are weak. They bribed their citizens with gifts. 94 million immigrants reside in Europe. UBI support them. UBI clogged the system. The new immigrant have their own agenda. Chaos and mayhem advance their plans. Is Obamacare a bribe: no, without subsidies it’s too expensive. Can Trump cut SNAP from Mamdani if he misbehave: yes.
You are a total idiot
moronic. do you know who finances nyc? up the hudson.
bmc^2 : moronic. Jack: idiot. Pockercat: a stupid bot : Trump can impose a SNAP embargo on: Gavin, Hochul and Pritzker if they cont to misbehave. Mamdani is Hochul asset. SNAP recipients are governors assets. The intellectual elite open their mouth to puke. Hungry people open their mouth to eat.
TFG can not stop SNAP payments to the States he does not like. If he could do so, he already would have done it.
TFG would be happy to have people starve. Kids, disabled, elderly, vets, starving students. TFG does not care and may indeed take pleasure from the pain of others.
SC Ketanji Jackson stopped SNAP.
Go to sleep will ya
u are a fucking jerk.
No, you are though. You haven’t come up with a single intelligent comment ever. You write comment after comment in just one blog & not a single one is articulate, intelligent or of any worth. You really are a stupid man & vulgar also.
That’s all you can say is f off jerk. I rest my case dumb ass.
Sentiment plunged, but SPX is on the way to a new all time high. Social media herd together, blaming Trump for the plight, for every malaise the dems caused. Propaganda vs reality: the 100Y dems party is clueless and rudderless. Their holy man deflated. They are stupid and weak. They caved in.
Republicans blame Democrats, Democrats blame Republicans, the infantile games continue as the US speeds to it’s destruction. Even a child can see they’re two wings of the same bird.
Not surprising when the survey includes more Democrat respondents than Republican. It is nothing more than a political survey.
In the survey, the split Democrats/independents/Republicans is about 1/3 each. Since independents are usually in the middle between Democrats and Republicans, the extreme opinions of Democrats and Republicans didn’t matter for the overall survey reading. But that’s no longer the case: independents now think the economy is in really bad shape.
I love when you guys whistle past the graveyard!
The economy is currently teetering on the precipice of recession in the 1st qtr.of 2026.
As far as proposed states go, this one is much more colorful than the failed state of Franklin.
https://jillswenson.substack.com/p/moosylvania-and-the-campaign-of-62
The whole asset-debt 600 trillion dollar equivalent global macroeconomic system, observably and empirically, cycles from short-intermediate-long term time scale peak asset valuations to similar time scale asset nadir valuations. Patterned growth and decay to these peaks and nadirs are, respectively, associated – with short-intermediate-long time scale buyer population exhaustion – and with similar seller population exhaustion. In the longest time scales where recessionary conditions exist and are telltale preceded by multiple data points (consumer sentiment et.al.)as elucidated in this blog, bad private and corporate debt (that which cannot be repaid) undergoes default or restructuring and overvalued assets undergo substantial devaluation, often in a nonlinear fashion.
Barrick Mining company, one of the world’s largest gold mining companies, was up as high as 7.8% today. Today is day 14 (2x) (3rd fractal buying saturation and exhaustion point) of a x/2.5x/2x/1.5x :: 7/17/14/10-11 day 4-phase patterned growth and decay fractal cycle, starting with a gapped blow-off day on 22 Sept 2025. The nadir for Barrack Mining in another 9-10 trading days matches an expected ACWI world equity index transient crash nadir on 21 November 2025. The US Ten Year Note (and other debt held instruments) will be the beneficiary of exiting dollars from equity, gold, and crypto assets with a transient substantial sharp lowering of government interest rates.
The really bad news for Trump is that independents’ views on the economy are increasingly aligned with the Democrats. In the Michigan survey, Democrat and Republican respondents always lived (or pretended to live) in their own bubbles depending on who was in power, with independents somewhere in the middle. No longer. Independents now also think the economy is in deep trouble because of Trump’s nonsensical policies, just like the Democrats. Last Tuesday’s landslides simply confirmed what these surveys have been saying for several months.
is Trump going for 4 terms, like FDR?
President Grover Cleveland’s 2 terms were split. In between he pitched for Philadelphia Phillies and the Cubs, as portrayed by Ronald Reagan in a movie entitled “There He Goes Again.”.
Let’s hope he can finish this term. Biden was in bad shape, but Trump looks like he is in really bad shape.
Still quoting the forces of evil as if they were reliable sources of information rather than Intel Blob propaganda, Bloomberg (Evil) NBC News (Evil)
Now that is not to say Trump isnt full of BS. Prices are not falling, inflation in food stores is insane
Also Michigan consumer sentiment is almost now worthless as it is being severely curbed by the left
That said, the economy is NOT great. The horrifying K economy is still a disaster. And anything Trump is doing to fix it will take at least 10 years to have any effect, and whether the effects will work or be positive or negative is impossible to know today
The K economy? Man you swallow any BS they feed you regardless of the source. Stop recycling propaganda, the economy is collapsing. The only thing left holding everything by a thread is the hyperbubble of phatom wealth called the stock market. That will soon end.
The K comes from the chart pattern when two coincident trends diverge, between the haves and the have nots recently.
I know what it’s supposed to mean, buzz words, bloody joker repeating crap. They used to call it by it’s real name FEUDALISM, or at least record inequality, NOT stupid K, like it’s something normal & benign.
I had no idea you were angry.
Not angry, a realist. I just do not appreciate propaganda recyclers constantly churning out garbage.
yes !
The one thing I like about Mish, he states his sources. He also will state things like, “for once I agree with this source”. He has his beliefs, but does not worship them. Unlike some of his commenters, that love to spout BS while never revealing their sources.
Not just sounds like him, Trump is falling asleep everywhere, half of his face is dropping, can’t walk right, has mysterious MRIs and extra doctor’s visit and now has “handlers” around him everywhere.
And we don’t get a single peep about his health from anyone.
There are peeps from people, they just aren’t ‘amplified’ – no $ in that apparently. If only it were federal campaign season again then it would be bigly news.
We will see if the hypocrite Repubs will do anything about their demented leader. Or will they go down, like the Dems did with Biden?
If Dumbya would have ate more pretzels everyone be better off.
Got an exit plan?
Still glad it’s not Kamala.
+1 for the laugh… perhaps what you intended.
The Grifter in Chief thinks he’s a King but everyone can see he’s the Jester.