Starting May of 2024, it kept getting harder to find a new job for those who lost one.
The lead chart shows the Continued Claims and the 4-week moving average of continued claims from the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.
Continued Claims
- The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending December 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 14 was 1,910,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000.
- The previous week’s level was revised down by 10,000 from 1,874,000 to 1,864,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,881,000, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,500 from 1,880,250 to 1,877,750.
Insured Unemployment
The key phrase above is “insured unemployment”.
After someone expires all of their unemployment benefits they become “uninsured unemployment” and the Department of Labor stops tracking.
Expiring Unemployment Benefits
- Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
- Many states with a maximum of 26 weeks use a sliding scale based on a worker’s earnings history to determine the maximum number of weeks they qualify
- Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, North Carolina, and Kentucky have a lower number of week.
- Massachusetts allows up to 30 weeks depending on conditions. Montana allows 28 weeks of benefits.
Insured unemployment generally ends at 26 weeks. To correct for expiring benefits, we need add those with expired benefits to the number of continuing claims.
Continued Claims and 27+ Weeks Unemployed
The above chart shows the impact of those who are unemployed but no longer eligible for unemployment insurance.
It’s not the level that indicates a problem, it’s the direction and strength of the move that’s the problem.
There was a brief in the surge higher that started in August of 2023. The temporary decline shows up in the lead chart as well.
From August of 2023 until April of 2024, it was easy to find a job if you lost one. That has not been the case starting May of 2024.
Recession Indicator
I created a recession indicator using a moving averages of 15-weeks or longer unemployed.
For discussion, please see Two Recession Indicators, What Do They Say Now?
Laura: “It’s usually 26 weeks for every 18 months. ALSO, you can only collect based on previous earnings. If you’re unemployed for 26 weeks and then are employed for a month you won’t have earned sufficient income to collect benefits.”
Correct! So my number of 27+ weeks unemployment understates the issue.
The economy has been broken since 2001. This is when the FIRE economy was allowed to rage. The country is the same house of cards but worse. 2025 will be a once in a 100 year depression.
This indicator is not significant cos its getting higher due to illegal immigrants taking
their posts.
No economy for old men.
What – if anything – does this imply about interest rates? 10 Year is 4.57% – up almost 1% since the Fed started cutting.
Nothing. One does not cause the other. Rate cuts by the FED clearly show they are NOT in control of interest rates; bond markets are.
Are those total lifetime unemployment benefits or are those for each time one becomes unemployed?
Here in Oz you can get the dole forever if you are unemployed and don’t have other income or assets that put you over the limits.
Too much other income and you get zip. Severance pay will also affect your dole too.
Generally, you get about 26 weeks of benefits, each time you become unemployed.
If you get severance, you can’t claim benefits until it runs out.
It’s usually 26 weeks for every 18 months. ALSO, you can only collect based on previous earnings. If you’re unemployed for 26 weeks and then are employed for a month you won’t have earned sufficient income to collect benefits.
Laura: “It’s usually 26 weeks for every 18 months. ALSO, you can only collect based on previous earnings. If you’re unemployed for 26 weeks and then are employed for a month you won’t have earned sufficient income to collect benefits.”
Correct! So my number of 27+ weeks unemployment understates the issue.
Inflationary depression continues
This is why we need to double the H1B allotment!
It took 7 months for continued claims to rise from 1.8 to 1.9M. When we get to 2M, I’ll perk up and start to agree that it’s time to start paying attention. Even then, it usually takes upwards of 2.5M continued claims before NBER says a recession has started. I do think we’ve probably crossed the threshold where people are finding it very hard to regain employment which suggests we’ll probably see initial claims rise up towards 250K by sometime in February at the latest. Even still, we have to see what Trump announces & how quickly he moves on business-friendly policies.
Trump isn’t in charge… I am.
Troll
Trolling and $277 million made me your president.
If you wait for NBER you will be very, very late.