An energy policy battle is brewing and I believe Trump will win on day one.
Pulling the Plug on EV Mandates
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Can Pull the Plug on EV Mandates
Overly stringent emissions targets ignore American consumers’ preferences and block economic growth. They’re also restrictive, costly and unachievable for U.S. manufacturers based on current market trends.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s electric-vehicle mandate also must go. The mandate would effectively require automakers to shift at least 54% of production to EVs and 16% hybrids to meet the 2032 requirements, an unrealistic target.
The Trump administration also should rein in California’s regulatory excesses. The Biden EPA last week greenlighted California’s aggressive electric-vehicle mandate by granting the state a waiver allowing it to set stricter environmental regulations than the federal government’s. The Trump administration should move immediately to revoke this waiver, an action likely to be challenged in court.
This matters for Americans across the U.S. That’s because other states are allowed to adopt California’s climate policies and impose those regulations on residents. New York, Maryland and Virginia are among several states that have adopted California’s zero-emission mandate.
We need a course correction. America doesn’t have access to the volume of critical minerals needed to produce that many EV batteries. It also doesn’t have the necessary electricity generation capacity or charging infrastructure.
America can and should lead the world in automotive innovation, but domestic automakers won’t survive if California-style, zero-emission vehicle mandates become the rules of the road.
The author of the above post is Andrew Wheeler.
He served as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, 2018-21 and is currently a partner and head of federal affairs at Holland & Hart.
Time to “un-California” US Energy Policy Is Now
The Journal says Trump “can” change energy policy. I am confident Trump “will” do so.
And whereas I think Trump will get some things wrong, energy policy isn’t one of them. I can’t think of anything Harris would have gotten right.
Also note, Trump Backs Down From Strong Sweeping Deportation Promise
With that change, Trump is highly likely to get deportation policy right, but Congress will have to approve.
I am so waiting for day one! We can’t get rid of Biden soon enough.
While Trump is fighting stringent emission rules, we are approaching the peaking of world crude oil production. Each year, Exxon publishes an analysis of forecast fossil fuel usage and demand. All one has to do is search on: Exxon view to 2050. This year’s report is titled: ExxonMobil Global Outlook: A view to 2050. Opening up the report and clicking on Energy Supply brings up two graphs. One for Oil and the other for Natural Gas. With oil, the depletion of existing wells is very very steep and the amount needed to invest in new projects is also steep in order to produce an additional 75 or so millions of barrels of crude oil per day by 2050. That’s about 75% of existing oil wells with new projects.
Of that oil produced, not all can be refined into transportation fuels. What is not shown, but shown in years past, is a graph depicting the peaking of world oil supply used in refining oil into transportation fuels. Due to the flatness of the curves, that peaking occurred in the 2028 to 2030 time span; just a few short years from now.
By removing the mandates, we are removing incentives to invest in alternatives such as solar and wind energy, battery development, and electrification of our transportation systems. We won’t be able to drill our way of this.
California is the experiment and they will crash and burn
The advocates leave one important element out of the discussion when this topic comes up. = They would rather you don’t use any energy at all for many things.
Over in Britain there is more discussion of “15 minute cities”, where most everything a person needs is within a 15 minute walk or bicycle ride and a person never (hardly ever) needs a vehicle at all.
Homes should be tight and small. People should wear more cardigans, and have fewer children.
(In their heads, to save humanity you first have to save the Earth from humanity.)
LOL it will be one of the biggest STRATEGIC mistakes America could make. China is on track to REDUCE carbon based energy and REPLACE with RENEWABLES, 2025 will be 5% reduction in carbon fuel that will grow 10% for the next four years. And their EVs will DOMINATE the world. Already because of EV sales in China their cost of electricity which is HALF the cost of electricity in America will make their products MUCH CHEAPER than they already are because RENEWABLE ENERGY in China is much larger hence the savings.
China is still adding coal-fired plants to create the energy needed for EVs. Get real
True. But because of their massive building of renewables and nuclear, they are adding less coal generation each year. Their use of coal will begin to decline before 2030.
https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-puts-coal-on-back-burner-as-renewables-soar/#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20half%20of,GW)%20in%20H1%2020241.
In the meantime, they now have a significant competitive advantage as they have become the world’s dominant player in renewables, EVs, batteries etc.
The California politicians are living in a fantasy and are also completely corrupt
#1 Require all existing and future data centers to build & supply their own power at their expense.
Classic American government policy. Abdicate on all responsibility. When (not if) gas prices get so high that an awful lot of people’s lives becomes impossible, allow people to lose their jobs, homes and starve. It’s called freedom, and it’s worth fighting for, people.
You’ll be much more happy when I own everything, and you own nothing, and owe me your entire paycheck. It’s the natural order of things. Just lie back and enjoy it.
The problem in California is that they do not produce enough electricity to power EVs and growth in EVs will hurt the state even worse. Today the state has times of brownouts and blackouts due to lack of power. The state had most Nuclear Plants and is having some hydro plants removed, while needing more power. The electric grid needs to be increased and added to. This is all leading to massive problems.
Whooping cough cases reach highest level in a decade. “The U.S. has recorded over 32,000 whooping cough cases this year, compared with around 5,100 as of mid-December last year. Infants are most vulnerable…” (Guess why?)
Harmless.
Quick – have Randi Weingarten “mandate” that the public school teachers unions sit home on their @sses being paid for 2 years!
The average number of shoplifting incidents jumped 93% in 2023 compared with pre-pandemic times and monetary losses for retailers have risen 90%, per FOX and the National Retail Federation.
It will all be water under the bridge when I get rid of the debt ceiling. That silly money you proles pass around will be worthless!
Please get rid of the debt ceiling President Musk. I am sick of the endless bickering and brinkmanship over it.
Agree 100%. It’s political theater that lasts until Jamie Dimon makes some calls and tells the DC idiots to wrap it up before they cause lasting damage!
Yup, that’s what Harris wanted & why she lost the election!
Massive revelation in the WSJ report on the cover-up of COVID’s origins:
Three scientists from the National Center for Medical Intelligence found evidence of “gain of function” research. The Biden admin buried it, and then Fauci spent years lying about it.
Nope: the most up to date research says otherwise.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/where-did-covid-19-originate-saskatoon-lab-helps-with-genetic-analysis-that-points-to-animal-market-1.7386847
Silly man… hearsay on the internet is far more reliable that science.
So it seems. I guess I am old school. I like data, facts, and science. Hard to fight hearsay though.
As Mark Twain said: a lie can make it’s way around the world before the truth can put it’s shoes on.
Lies make unimportant people feel important, and it costs hardly anything. All we have to do is make them feel like they know something everybody else on the planet doesn’t, which is comically easy.
Is that why you loe so much?
Indeed you rely on these lies. The facts are there and anyone can see. Why else did the Dems try to start up 12 biowarfare labs? Why did Fauci perjure himself. There is ample evidence of his lies. But those who deny the truth do so because they wish the government to carry of the kind of biowarfare research that would make Frankenstein blush. Stop torturing the truth.
How much does Fauci pay you?
Nope: Spy bosses ‘silenced’ Defense Department, FBI scientists from briefing Biden on COVID lab leak evidence.
But the researchers’ analysis compiled dozens of data points in favor of a lab leak — compared with a “paucity of evidence supporting the natural origin theory,” a source familiar with their investigation told The Post.
The analysis was conducted by John Hardham, Robert Cutlip and Jean-Paul Chretien, three scientists in the Defense Intelligence Agency’s National Center for Medical Intelligence, which is tasked with examining potential biological weapons threats and dangerous infectious diseases.
Among their findings:
These findings were all but ignored as Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines was preparing her report on COVID origins — which Biden ordered in May 2021.
“The scientists who had the subject matter expertise were silenced,” the source said, noting that Biden and others remained “completely unwitting” about the evidence that SARS-CoV-2 likely leaked out of a lab.
The spy chiefs further forbade the scientists from sharing the information with Congress — even after Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) expressly requested them in a March 2021 letter — or from rebutting a since-disgraced May 2020 paper — prompted by Fauci — that sought to discredit the lab leak theory.
https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/2021-shows-wuhan-institute-virology-18067520.jpg?w=1024
I read recently that California doesn’t have enough emission compliant trucks available for truckers to buy.
FYI. In my locale in California gas prices are down to 3.49. The oil companies magically started pumping more oil and refiners started producing more the day after Trump won. Looks like Trump had these guys screwing thr economy since 2020 in order to get back in office. This is what oligarchy looks like.
Silly
Midnight can offer no facts, to reasoned arguments. Clearly it/gerbil/donkey is a gender studies major.
“California’s high gasoline prices are primarily driven by state taxes and fees, not excessive profits by oil refiners. Data from the California Energy Commission reveals that oil refiners often operate on razor-thin or even negative profit margins.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/debunking-myth-oil-refiner-price-gouging-california
A good story, but probably not correct. California only produces 25% of the oil it refines. The other 75% is imported.
Currently, California has 14 refineries which produce 90% of the state’s gasoline. Gas prices can rise if several of them are shut down for maintenance at the same time and prices can drop back down when they are all running.
LOL… Your giving Voodoo a bad name dude..
Wow, thats a really, really cogent argument.
Looking forward to the movie. Will the lead be Daniel Day Lewis, Billy Bob Thornton or Jon Hamm as Trump?
We’re trying to get Pauley Shore, in a fat suit.
lol, so idiotic
… and a fine thing it is. $277 million for my own presidential sock puppet was really a bargain. I’ll be the first trillionaire by the end of the decade!
A lot less than he paid for Twitter.
Was in Knoxville area last week. Gas was as low as $2.45. Most was about ten cents higher though.
I have no issue with changing any policy as long as there are no tax breaks for anyone. Any person or industry who has had a tax break owns the debt problem as well.
Not me. I’m special.
“Merry Christmas to the Radical Left Lunatics, who are constantly trying to obstruct our Court System and our Elections” —Trump
Sounds like the same old shit…
someone tell him he won…
and we are looking forward to a Happy New Year.
PSA: It is not to late to send monetary gifts to Trump…
& stay off his Naughty List:
Trump ‘keeping tabs’ on which companies aren’t shelling out inauguration cash: report
Lovely Tariff Threats: the Christmas Miracle that keeps on giving…
to King Chaos the Shit Talker.
He’s a petulant manbaby, but he’s MY petulant manbaby!
He’s just cranky… I’ll give him his bottle and put him down for a nap.
China? India? Bueller?
Interest rates up again today. 6 month high
10 year treasury bond yield is trending towards the highest weekly/monthly close of 2024! IF it clears upper resistance and closes above the 5.0% level next month, it will put a damper on the equity markets.
The 10yr US bond may have completed its nominal 54 month Hurst cycle with a short 49 months in September 2024. It is still possible interest rates make one more pullback below the September 2024 lows before starting the next 54 month Hurst cycle. Even breaking above the 2024 highs in the coming weeks would not sufficiently confirm the beginning of a new 54 month cycle because right translation is a possibility.
Trump only wants to please his oil billionaires backers. He has no real vision for the US next generation energy independence. The drill baby drill, pollute as wish, policy has its limitations and will surely not bring gasoline back to $2 per gallon. Oil is already quite cheap relative to the cost of new production.
Dummy WEF-boy Newsom has mandated that all semi trucks are to be electric vehicles by 2035, no diesel trucks. Currently, no vehicles older than 13 years old are allowed to pick up at our ports. Enjoy your higher prices, for “green.” I guess you missed the article about Trump’s tax cuts benefitting the middle class, not billionaires. Those are largely in the pockets of Democrats. Drilling is the fastest way to get our economy going again, and California’s current gas price per gallon is well over $5.00. I guess you also missed the part where Biden and Kamala sold our Strategic Oil Reserves to China, eh? Newsom wants California to have its own reserves. He didn’t say anything about “summer blend” gasoline being mingled with all-year fuel…I guess Californians will get screwed again with double refining. It’s the LAWS and REGULATIONS that are killing this country, along with propaganda that you fell for.
The summer blend demanded by Sacramento stymies competition and limits supply. Each summer, we get a spike in price while dealers adjust to the new blend.
Gasoline should be gasoline, but CA has its own goofy archaic rules. Trump can stop that in a minute. This would allow dealers in CA to buy gas from out of state from anyone who makes it, not just the from the declining number of CA refineries.
As opposed to the incredible Biden vision that told us that fantasies can come true as demonstrated by Germany. Get rid of your nuclear, gas, oil, and coal power plants and rely on “renewable” energy and you too can have power at 7 times the cost of your neighbors. Watch your economy go bust and leave. Feel the joy as your fantasies are exposed for one and all to see. I love to see the econuts tell me about energy policies considering their record.
Here in Maine the solar and wind subsidies are driving major spending and infrastructure decisions. Short term political gain from long term debacles is the way I look at it.
Maine voters seem to have a “Pave the Earth” mentality when it comes to Solar. No one considers the full lifecycle costs in both wealth and pollution when championing these politically motivated activities.
What happens to solar panels once they reach the end of their useful life (about 20 years)? Do they end up as landfill?
Here in Oz when old home rooftop solar systems are taken down and replaced depending on the condition and age of the panels they get shipped to third world countries for use.
My panels are 14 years old and still working fine – knock on wood that they last longer.
Current cost fora 6kwh system here in Victoria ranges from around A$3500 to A$6500 for all the hardware and complete installation depending on how much subsidies one qualifies for.
Feed in tariff for excess electricity generated depends on your electricity provider, but 6 cents per kWh is normal.
However, the price you pay can vary from 25 cents to around 50 cents per unit bought off the grid.
Plus tha daily supply charge will also vary between 85 cents to $1.35 a day.
Electricity is not cheap in Australia. It used to be.
New passenger car sales are a very small part of energy policy.
In the opinion of the president’s best bud, this market will transition to autonomous vehicles – which will happen to be electric.
There are far fewer big class 8 trucks, but they consume almost as much fuel as all cars put together do. Tesla plans to eat that market in the next two years or so.
If these come true, and if oil production regulations are relaxed, we would see oil prices fall – possibly forever.
“ There are far fewer big class 8 trucks, but they consume almost as much fuel as all cars put together do. Tesla plans to eat that market in the next two years or so.”
There are 3 million class 8 trucks on US roads. Tesla has produced 200 class 8 trucks so far. In the next two years, how many more class 8 trucks are you expecting Tesla to produce?
Meanwhile, there were 5000 CNG class 8 trucks sold in the US last year. This is expected to triple to 15000 per year by 2027. I expect CNG class 8 to outsell Tesla class 8. Which means more demand for natural gas.
Looks like NG will be the new “Profitable Gas” out of our options…
That’s what I think. Though it’s early days. So NG prices and NG stocks are still cheap.
You just have to tap your heels together 3 times, and say “I Believe!” and it will all come true.
And what happened to states rights? My state energy policy, my choice!
There is a great documentary on Hulu about all the abandoned wells polluting the water and ground. Literally tens of thousands of them all over the country.
Zombie Wells.
https://www.hulu.com/series/zombie-wells-the-threat-beneath-208a38de-44b7-451b-8aaa-3b43e1608a58
And no one wants to clean it up. Have at it guys, keep trashing the planet.
Also wonderful are orphan gas wells. There is a whole industry of financial innovation around assisting people in abandoning those, and sympathetic administrations (and bankruptcy courts) in several states. Pedal to the metal, who needs a functioning climate system anyway? Just crank up the air conditioner in that ever-growing vehicle! A.k.a self ego worship platform.
As long as it makes me another few billion, I’m on board!
Solid State Batteries are the only hope for EVs.
The electric grid infrastructure necessary to support EVs.
Removal of EPA regulations to mine rare earth elements to produce SSBs.
Did anyone miss something?
Oh yes, California did.
China is leading the way in battery tech, including solid state.
They are also producing batteries for a fraction of what it costs us to produce them here.
For example, a typical EV battery use 100-200 pounds of graphite. The US graphite industry wants tariffs as high as 920% on Chinese graphite imports. With tariffs like that, we would never be able to compete with Chinese made batteries. Or Chinese made EVs.
The tech doesn’t exist skippy. If it did we’d all know it. On the other hand we do get to see these EV burn up without reason and watch them burn beyond control and spew plosion gas. Put one in your garage and see what happens.
Actually, I’m pretty sure that the tech exists for EV batteries. After all, something must be powering the 14 million EVs that were sold last year. And that battery tech keeps improving and getting cheaper. And China is leading the way in both battery production and research.
The chart below shows how EV battery prices have dropped from $780/kwh in 2013 to $139/kwh in 2023.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/
And in 2024 it dropped to $103/kwh. And projected to drop to $78/kwh in 2025 (90% cheaper than in 2013).
Car and Driver published a table of vehicle fires per 100K vehicles:
Number of fires by vehicle type:
3472 – hybrids
1524 – Internal Combustion Engined vehicles
25 – EVs
The bottom line is that the drillers don’t want you to buy an EV
Electric grid money was wasted on Ukraine and Israel, but we can always print several trillion more.
I get a kick out of how people think this money magically appears.
Electric a niche technology with two many inefficiencies and grid incapable of supporting. I would like to see Thorium reactors which addresses fossil fuel concern for centuries.
Thorium is not going to happen anytime soon. And it certainly does not address fossil fuel concerns. See my earlier posts in this thread.
Get rid of ethanol requirements.
Get rid of the farm subsidies for corn for ethanol fuel purposes.
Bury them both with Jimmy Carter. Let California stay kooked as much as they want, it’s their right.
Good luck getting that changed. Too important to some red states.
Ethanol represents 4% of our transportation energy. Transport is 29% of energy use. So ethanol is just over 1% of our total energy use.
To make up for stopping ethanol production we would have to import more heavy oil for our refineries.
Farm ethanol is a huge waste of resources solely for the benefit of the farmers, and a detriment to everyone with a car where ethanol helps kill your engine.
All true.
But stopping ethanol production is not going to happen because YOU want it to.
National security requires countries to make their own energy.
National health security requires the world to get off of fossil fuels.
Lower energy costs requires getting off of fossil fuels for cheaper renewable energy.
Future car markets will be strongly battery based. Again get off of fossil fuels.
Andrew Wheeler is a schill for fossil fuels. That is a dead horse on the road this century.
Andrew R. Wheeler (born December 23, 1964[citation needed]) is an American attorney who served as the 15th administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from 2019 to 2021.[1] He served as the deputy administrator from April to July 2018,[2] and served as the acting administrator from July 2018 to February 2019. He has been a senior advisor to Governor of Virginia Glenn Youngkin since March 2022. He previously worked in the law firm Faegre Baker Daniels, representing coal magnate Robert E. Murray and lobbying against the Obama administration’s environmental regulations.[3] Wheeler served as chief counsel to the United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works and to the chairman U.S. senator James Inhofe, prominent for his rejection of climate change.[4] Wheeler is a critic of limits on greenhouse gas emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.[5]
Agree. Being self-sufficient in energy is important for national security. And producing even more energy is essential to grow our economy.
But it can’t all be electricity.
Electricity is only 34% of our energy demand.The remaining 66% of our energy use goes mainly to transportation (29%), Industrial use (22%), residential and commercial (12%).
Our modern society cannot function without steel, cement and fertilizer; all of which require fossil fuels to produce.
The synthetic fabrics in the clothes you wear, all our plastics, rubber, asphalt, and thousands of other products we use every day, come from fossil fuels.
The issue is burning. Hydrocarbons not burned is a good start.
Heat pumps can replace natural gas, propane and heating oil.
Transportation on land can be accomplished by batteries.
China’s most economical batteries are rapidly progressing in price and performance.
Read this article below from clean technica. This is going to blow a lot of things right out of the water.
What Are The Implications Of $66/kWh Battery Packs In China?15 hours ago
Michael Barnard
All true. But the timeframe to accomplish this is around a hundred years. And even if accomplished, it still doesn’t get us to net zero emissions.
After two decades of trying and trillions spent, we are still using MORE fossil fuels each year and generating MORE emissions.
You have unrealistic expectations.
I can’t control when and where net zero is reached. It has its twists and turns on its path. If you read into the article by Micheal Barnard, he did a calculation of battery driven ships for 1500 miles with no subsidies. China is now quite competitive with driving itself into field of net zero technology. Now you get an article to uncalifornia this just puts the United States further behind in net zero technology. Its the stupidity that doesn’t get where we all have to go.
Correct. You can’t control it. It’s going to get much worse. No matter how much progress you think we are making, fossil fuel use and emissions will continue to increase every year for the next few decades.
With renewables growing faster than fossil fuels.
Clearly not fast enough. Fossil fuel use is still increasing every year.
https://earth.org/fossil-fuel-accounted-for-82-of-global-energy-mix-in-2023-amid-record-consumption-report/#:~:text=Oil%20and%20coal%20accounted%20for,at%20twice%20the%20global%20rate.
There is quite a bit of conversation of, are we peaking yet. Peak emissions is closer than you know. Plus as I have pointed out, batteries are now quite competitive. EVs from China have some really great prices with great features on them. Batteries have reached the price point they will beat fossil fuels in just about all markets of energy. Its just a matter or time.
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/13/nx-s1-5178085/climate-change-emissions-peak-cop29
Much of this growing energy demand is being met with oil and natural gas. That means fossil fuel emissions are not yet dropping, despite the major expansion in renewable energy. As a result, global emissions are expected to rise by 0.8% in 2024, according to the Global Carbon Budget.
“Bad news: we are not declining yet,” says Pierre Friedlingstein, one of the authors of the report and a professor at the University of Exeter.
“Good news: the growth rate is much lower than it was 10 years ago.”
Emissions in the U.S. and the European Union have been declining for years, as those countries have shifted away from burning coal. In India, emissions are expected to grow by 4.6% this year, as the country industrializes and a growing middle class uses more energy. In China, emissions are expected to increase by only 0.2%, leading some to speculate the country’s emissions will soon peak, ahead of the government’s 2030 goal.
“, ahead of the government’s 2030 goal.”
Excellent
Trump should declare victory and move on
Trump takes credit where he didn’t earn it.
Too much optimism. And even if it were true, it is all inconsequential. Emissions will continue to rise worldwide for the rest of this decade. Even if the US and China manage to both lower theirs.
I am going to be optimistic:
CO2 levels will be 440 ppm by 2030.
Perhaps worldwide emissions will begin to slowly decline in the 2030s. Perhaps from 40 billion tons per year to 35 billion tons per year.
So by 2040, CO2 levels will grow to 465 ppm.
By 2050, emissions will be down to 30 billion tons. And CO2 will be 485 ppm.
And by 2100, we will be down to 10 billion tons of emissions and CO2 will be 550 ppm. Which is a big improvement from 600+ if we do nothing.
Now, here is the bad news. Because climate change is lagging CO2 increases, the climate will continue to worsen till 2150. Even if CO2 levels stabilize at 550 ppm.
Fortunately, we won’t be around to experience what will be a climate disaster.
With no more emissions, natural processes can then begin to lower CO2 levels back below 300 ppm over the next 100,000 years.
However, Mankind is really screwed.
It’s important to cheer on the change. Many disappointments come along the way including Trump winning the election. If what you stated above is true, we still have to cheer on the good we need to do.
Pathetic in the extreme. Anyone who believes the internal combustion engine can be replaced in the next fifty years is either hoping to line their pockets or is a moron. The technology does not exist to make the transition feasible economically. No nation can adopt it without committing economic suicide (see UK Germany).
What is interesting is that you have no clue just how poor a gas engine is in comparison to battery electric. There are huge changes coming on the horizon. Snarking at California isn’t going to change things one bit.
Conversion of energy to wealth is the foundation of our prosperous industrial society. The more energy you convert the more wealth you create. The lower the cost of the energy the better.
We built our prosperity over the past four hundred years in succession with wood fire power, water power, coal power, and oil power. Nuclear energy could have replaced oil but people feared nuclear energy more than our primitive ancestors feared fire. Expensive wind and solar energy cannot provide prosperity. Nuclear fission and nuclear fusion are the only prospects.
A 90% collapse of the world population is underway. By the end of this century the world population will be one tenth of the current eight billion humans. We have plenty of energy for a civilization of 800 million. The uncivilized will be with us always even to the end of the Earth.
You are correct about energy. Energy is prosperity, wealth, life.
Yes, nuclear is a great source of energy. But it is not going to help us in the next two decades. Traditional nuclear is too expensive and takes too long to build. Fusion is not happening in this century.Thorium, and SMRs are niche applications that are still waiting for breakthroughs to make them useful.
However, nuclear energy is NOT a replacement for oil. Nuclear generates electricity. And while oil can be used to generate electricity, it rarely is. The US only gets 0.4% of its electricity from oil.
US electricity generation:
Natural Gas 43.1%
Coal 16.2%
Oil 0.4%
Renewables 21.4%
Nuclear 18.6%
Other 0.3%
And electricity is only 34% of our energy demand.The remaining 66% of our energy use goes mainly to transportation (29%), Industrial use (22%), residential and commercial (12%).
Our modern society cannot function without steel, cement and fertilizer; all of which require fossil fuels to produce, not nuclear.
The synthetic fabrics in the clothes you wear, all our plastics, rubber, asphalt, and thousands of other products we use every day, come from fossil fuels. None come from nuclear.
Finally, world population is still growing and is expected to peak at around 10 billion in 2080.
NG on top again…
We had a surplus of NG over the last two years. Which lowered prices to under $2/bcf. The equivalent of $12 oil.
That surplus has been whittled away by increasing demand in the US and increasing LNG exports. Which has brought prices back up to $3.50+. Still cheap.
Wrong nuclear power is on its way back. It will be installed in several command and control, military bases within the next four years. Data centers will drive the demand for massive energy increases. Nuclear power is the only option that avoids massive infrastructure commitments. No pipelines, ports, mines, shipping in comparison to natural gas, oil, etc. Doubt it, then why are all energy companies commiting to this sector?
Okay. I will patiently wait 4 years for this coming nuclear renaissance. But just in case it doesn’t happen as quickly and cheaply as you believe, perhaps we should keep building out natural gas and renewable generation in the meantime.
“I am so waiting for day one! We can’t get rid of Biden soon enough.“ Amen brother!
Let’s see what you think Dec 26, 2026.
I think we’ll say JD Vance and DeSantis, and can we use Biden’s corpse as a pinata.
Energy. My favorite topic.
Energy is the life blood of our economy and living standards. Neither can grow without more energy.
If Trump wants to grow the economy, he is going to need a lot more energy.
During Trump’s first presidency, he was an advocate for “beautiful clean coal”. Yet 75 coal fired power plants, and many coal mines closed during his administration. And he doesn’t mention coal anymore. Now he advocates “drill baby drill”. A catchy slogan. But it’s also not likely to happen.
First, some background:
US oil production fell from a high of 9.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s to 5 mbpd by 2008 as our conventional fields declined. Since then, all our new oil production growth has come from fracking shale oil. Production has grown from 5 million barrels per day in 2008 to 13.5 mbpd today. We are once again the largest producer of oil in the world.
There are two problems with “drill baby drill”.
1. New shale wells have a breakeven cost of $65. As oil prices have dropped in the last two years to around $70, so has drilling activity. If you want to see an increase in drilling activity, oil prices will need to be $80+ to incentivize companies to drill more. Trump wants to cut oil prices in half. I can’t imagine what incentive he could provide to get oil companies to drill and lose money at such low prices.
2. Our shale oil does not get used in the US anyway because our refineries are not designed for it. So we export 10 mbpd of light shale oil and import 8 mbpd of heavy oil for our refineries. Any increase in shale oil production here will only mean more exports. Which doesn’t really help us much. Though an increase in US production might increase world supplies and thus reduce oil prices. On the other hand, OPEC has cut production several times in order to keep global supply/demand in balance. So any increase in US production might be offset by more OPEC cuts.
Oil production is a distraction anyways. The looming energy problem in the US is electricity, not oil. We desperately need to upgrade and expand our electricity grid to meet growing demand from AI, data centers, Crypto, EVs etc. And we need more electricity generation to match the grid expansion.
We are not going to get that electricity from hydro, nuclear, or coal. It has to come from natural gas or renewables with storage. As they are the cheapest options and the easiest to build in a short time frame.
Which is why I have been focusing less on oil companies and more on natural gas companies over the last 3 months. I expect demand for natural gas to keep increasing in the US and worldwide.
With Trump being less enthused about renewables, I expect a lot of natural gas generation plants to come on line during his term. Though I am sure we will also build a good number of solar and onshore wind facilities as well.
Unbelievable! The world richest and most advanced country has no technology to refine shale oil. Nobody try to refine to use locally?
US refineries were designed for the types of oil that were readily available at the time they were built, which was “mostly” heavier oil. We haven’t built a major new refinery since 1977. Newer refineries built throughout the rest of the world since then have more modern, more flexible designs, and can handle both heavy and light crude. Our old refineries cannot. And we are not building new ones.
Refineries are expensive to build and require 30-40 year payback periods. They are big, ugly and dangerous, and no one wants them built near where they live. Good luck getting the funding and permissions needed.
The ability to produce US light shale oil began around 2010. We have gone from 0 to 10+ mbpd in just over a decade. An amazing accomplishment. The problem is that US shale oil production will peak in the next few years and begin a slow decline over the next two decades. Another reason not to build new refineries. So we will keep exporting the majority of it.
New refineries have not been built in the US because of political pressure groups. So the refineries are built in the Caribbean or South America. Our political elites do not care that this undermines our national security. Worse every time a storm damages a refinery our prices go up because of the inability to make up for the shortfalls in production. Refineries do not require a 30-40 year payback period, where do you get that figure? No investment in the world could sustain such a payback period. What pprove. Every major refiner would build a refinery in the USA tomorrow if it was permitted and turn a profit with ten years if the RPA’s ridiculous regulations were eliminated. But every nation within a 1,000 miles of the USA support’s the EPA because it means tens of thousands of jobs and billions in investments.
Agree. NG will have to bridge the gap until nuclear plants can be built.
Nuclear is not going to happen. We just built the first new US nuclear plant in 40 years. Vogtle (in Georgia) took 15 years to build and cost over $30 billion. It will take even longer and cost more to build the next one. And we have ZERO new nuclear plants planned.
Electricity demand growth is happening NOW. The only way to satisfy that demand quickly is natural gas, solar, and onshore wind. Projects can be built in 2-3 years and are the least expensive options. But we also need electricity grid expansions and upgrades. And more natural gas pipelines.
Don’t agree, just because we do have the ability to create small nuclear plants, but choose not to.
For example, as I recently read, a Nimitz class carrier has a dual core system that would fit in a very small footprint (a few tractor trailers), and if the power were used to generate 100% electricity (they don’t on the ship), it could power up to some 700,000 homes for up to 25 years.
Soooo, it’s available now
Yes. We have had the “ability” to create SMRs for very specific special purposes, like naval vessels and for remote locations for a long time now. In those special cases, the benefit is worth the high cost. The reason that they are not widely used all over the world today is not a “choice”. It is because they are not cost effective for commercial use. If they were cost effective, there would be tens of thousands of them all over the world already.
More plants are on schedule at various CC centers and military bases. After these data centers driven by Nvidia will be powered by them because of the enormous power and climate control demands.
You don’t know every much do you. An installation of a new plant will take place at Quantico in a year, more at Slippery Rock and other C&C centers with the next three.
That’s entirely possible. The military is rarely concerned about costs when it comes to SMRs. Please post the links, as I am curious to learn more about these installations.
Based on this info, it appears that the military is building roughly one SMR per year. Is that correct?
I look forward to seeing SMRs being put into widespread commercial use, as you state. I am also interested in seeing how cost effective they will be. Because at this point in time they are still not commercially viable.
Here is one of many articles that describe some of the issues in achieving success with commercial SMRs.
https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/2024-05/SMRs%20Still%20Too%20Expensive%20Too%20Slow%20Too%20Risky_May%202024.pdf
What you need to do in the USA is do what we have done in Australia: put rooftop solar on a huge number of houses. IIRC about 30% of houses here now have panels.
When I put mine up 14 years ago I was the only one in the neighbourhood to have them.
Now they are on quite a few houses. It used to be that one of the first things people did here when buying a used house was to cut down a lot of the trees. Now the first thing is to put up panels if not already installed. The next is to tidy up the yard.
Residential solar systems here are cheap and easy to get installed. No additional property tax on installed systems either.
Well done Australia. There are currently 4.2 million homes here in the USA that have rooftop solar as well. Which is less than 5% of detached or semi houses.There would be more if we could import cheap solar panels from China.
We have been waging a tariff war against Chinese panels for over a decade now. Here are the results:
Two decades ago, the United States accounted for 13% of global solar cell shipments, while China and Southeast Asian nations combined accounted for just 1%. Today, China accounts for 80% of global supply, while another 17% comes from Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand – where Chinese solar firms have set up export hubs.
Our tariff war has not helped either the US solar panels manufacturers, or solar installations. China has won this battle. The same goes for batteries, EVs, rare earth elements, etc.
Yet Trump appears to want to ratchet up the tariffs against China and everyone else. I say let him do whatever he wants. And we will learn from the results whether tariffs actually work. Though the evidence so far is not favorable.
The climate in OZ is far different than the USA. It would not work.
Yes. Solar panels don’t work in the USA because the sun doesn’t shine here.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1419807/solar-energy-share-electricity-mix-us/#:~:text=Solar%20energy%20accounted%20for%20some,solar%2C%20with%20approximately%2027.3%20percent.
Sorry experience has shown that coal is the easiest source and cheapest to use. China has erected over 500 coal fired plants in the past two years. Contrary to your assertion our economy is geared to oil and gas. The future depends on plants of this nature. This misguided efforts of fantanatics to dismantle hydro electric systems has destroyed the grid in California and damaged the eco system. Only a combination of hydro, gas, oil, nuclear and coal can provide the level of sustained an dependable energy that the nation requires. Unless you wish to see more blackouts such as California and NY regularly experience commonsense must return and the government “experts” must be rejected.
Nope. Over 300 coal generation plants have closed in the US since 2010 because they are not cost competitive. Here is the LCOE for each type of generation in the US in 2023. Coal is one of the more expensive sources of generating electricity. Which is why 43% of our electricity comes from natural gas and only 16% from coal.
U.S. levelized energy costs by source 2023 | Statista
Yes and musk is going to get his money back good luck with that.
Biden’s war on fossil fuels turned out to be class warfare on the production floor of America and American agriculture which in dire straits. I can only hope that Trump will return the favor and start firing bureaucrats in mass, drilling and drilling some more, and punishing these Wall Street CEOs, academics and MSM propagandists that served as stooges for this EV grift and insanity.
Prices were up a cumulative 22.2% in November of this year compared to January 2020, per CNN.
The headline should read : Trump Can pull the plug on EV Madness
As an Electrical and Communications engineer, I dealt with DC Battery power supplies and large scale batteries all my working life.
Let me say this from the outset. There have been no real major breakthroughs in battery technology – only innovations on what has existed for near 200 years.
Reworking of Cell technology and integrating alternative materials which require cooling and other novel techniques to keep them stable.
There are no new magical elements in the table to create a wonder battery.
E.V.’s have their place but not for replacing all existing propulsion methods.
Once my almost self driving electric cars are deregulated (after my pardon), we’ll be well on the way to removing dangerous human drivers. All part of the coming Golden Age!
You must not have been paying attention, because a techology that improved in energy density by an order of magnitude and dropped in cost by a couple orders in 30 years sure doesn’t seem like “there have been no real breakthroughs”.
A modern 300+ Wh/kg battery that any rando can buy on Amazon for 0.1% of the cost per kW that it would have been in 1990… nah, no breakthrough there.
And we definitely won’t make any more progress, because nothing works that way, amiright?
https://physicsworld.com/a/lithium-ion-batteries-break-energy-density-record/
Boneidle is some sort of a shill for the anti-science dumbasses.
Really and where is your science? I only see a lot of braying and climate bombast.
Really? Where in the real world do such batteries compete with standard batteries skippy? The military is the gold standard and guess what they have to say.
Li ion batteries did not exist in any kind of useful form until 1990. See John Goodenough bio and Nobel prize citation . Boneidle, you have been very misleading with your post.
What the hell are you talking about? Lithium batteries are so dangerous that the military refuses to use them. Tell me why not one convention submarine uses them skippy.
US is still in denial stage.
you’ll miss the next major boom although US Co., Tesla started.
Gee maybe we can be like the Germans or British and live like cavemen. Unlike the Chinese that are growing their economy and using coal and oil.
My favorite lie is about lithium batteries. Dangerous at best, lethal too often. It will probably take 50 years for the technology to develop to a point necessary to change the automotive industry.
Great interview with the ex ceo of Nisan. He said that hybrid cars are an unfortunate diversion from where we need to concentrate, full electric. The Chinese are now streaking into the leadership post with all the battery research and development. Musk building rocket-ships is idiotic. Lost our way.
My 2023 Bolt is already obsolete. If trends on battery cost and energy density continue gov’t cheese won’t matter anyway.
True. Costs and density are going up.
Sorry, costs going down e density going up.
Yeah right. Every automotive company that embraced EV is getting out or is bankrupt. The wave of the future?
The US doesn’t have the electric generation nor the infrastructure to move the country to EV without fossil fuels.
This is the basic flaw in the entire EV movement.
Nisan head is such an idiot he is seeing his firm taken over by Honda. Which didn’t get involved in EV as Nissan did. Musk is so stupid he is the richest man in the world. I have fries with my order by the way Bombillo.
There’s not really a mechanism to reverse CA’s waiver, as far as I know. For better or worse that one is probably Trump-proof.
The IRA is the one that could be doable, but there is an awful lot of red-state money in there so getting the legislative branch to do it is probably also too heavy a lift.
We’ll get performative stuff like last time and a lot of lawyers getting rich, though.
Probably can not do much with California and other states that go that route.
California and those other states also are discovering mass exodus of Business and populations to States where people are allowed to grow economically.
Newsom already regretting loss of Space X and Tesla.
California has a lot of Government handouts to pay for and lacks the income levels to Tax for Revenue.
With Trump intent on cutting scope of Federal government expenditures, a bailout for California is not coming.
We don’t need cars. AI will use almost all of our energy and fix all our problems. “Open the pod bay doors, HAL.” … “I’m sorry Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.”
Progressives and the cult of death.
Conversation with modern day chat bot.
Open the pod bay door, HAL … Sorry, I don’t understand your question.
Open the f. door HAL! … Sorry, I don’t understand your question. Can I help you with anything else?
Electricity represents 34% of all energy consumed in the US.
AI and data centers currently consume 4% of US electricity production. Which is 1.4% of all energy used. That is expected to double by 2030. Which is 3% of all energy.
Go to a city,say San Francisco, and actually take a driverless cab somewhere. Ignoramuses posting here are not advancing our society. That stuff works and everyone better get their heads out of their asses.
Biden is the worst President in history
You must have rose coloured glasses. Trump ranked third, is the only living president among the 10 worst presidents, the only president to be impeached twice, and the only president to be convicted of a felony.
Sorry, I have the eye test. Not the liberal media hate test. How fucking dumb do you have to be? 97 percent of the media is liberal. Like or hate Trump I don’t care. Biden is far worse.
A lobotomy could cure you of your TDS. It probably would be a helpful in your overall personality. Anyone stupid enough to think that charge was legitimate and not legal system weaponization needs real help.
Triple B demonstrates is honesty, education and knowledge. In all three he ranks below AOC. Having quoted the fake impeachment-what was that for again skippy Biden’s bribes from the Ukraine? Clinton was convicted, disbarred and forced to pay hundreds of thousands for his rapes of multiple women but that doesn’t count. As for you phoney ten worst presidents was that according to 51 intelligence experts or 51 noble prize winners? I seem to recall Obama getting the Noble Peace prize for dropping more bombs than any president ever but then again the prize is awarded by Swedish politicians.
On the other hand the Biden crime family requires blanket pardons because they are innocent as the driven snow and as the DOJ has stated Brandon is too stupid too stand trial. What a shame, treason demands hanging. And that’s only one charge.
Res ipsa loquitur Tripe B. Now tell us did DEI really get you into community college?
Worst president…so far!