Continued unemployment claims are on the rise. That means it’s getting harder to find a job if you lose one. 
Continued Claims Key Points
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 15 was 1,839,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,878,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 1,816,000, an increase of 12,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since December 4, 2021 when it was 1,859,750.
Initial Claims
Initial Claims Key Points
- In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 232,750 to 233,000.
Initial and Continued Claims Since 2000
Neither initial nor continued claims are ringing big alarm bells, at least from a level standpoint.
But the level is not the warning signal. Rather a sustained uptick from a relatively low level is the proper signal.
Still the chart itself is not that convincing. But the chart in conjunction with weakening data across the board is more convincing, especially the uptick in continued claims after going sideway for a year.
Data is weakening across then board. That’s the signal. Things no longer have a rolling recession look where one segment of the economy makes up for weakness elsewhere. Weakness is pervasive in housing, consumer spending, and durable goods orders.
Ron Gets It
I discuss the numbers good or bad every month if something significant happens. I discuss jobs every month no matter if something significant happens or not.
JeffD fails to understand how it is the change that matters not the level despite me mentioning that.
This statement of JeffD is ridiculous: “At some point these numbers will shoot up, but now is not the time.”
No one can possibly know that, and in light of weakness everywhere is a ridiculous thing to say.
Don’t get me wrong. I enjoy essentially all your articles because you are looking at things from directions that no one else is ever looking, and you can take a relative stong stand on the strength of your arguments and data. That’s why the weekly jobs report artcles are sort of a sore spot for me, because they all hint at the beginning of the end rather than, “so far, still business as usual.” You actually called that point out near the bottom of this particular article, and I appreciate that.
Unemployment is historically low, rising from nadir towards a normal level,
in turtle steps. There is no jump. We are not in recession territory, yet
Recession is being held off by those trillion dollar infusions of debt every 100 days….
What cannot continue… will continue… until it explodes spectacularly
They have been kicking the recession down the road precisely so that it becomes Trump’s baby on day one. They want all the history books to remember Mr. Pandemic and Mr. Recession. No one challenges the deep state and the MIC and gets away with a clean legacy.
As Jeff Green is to EVs… Jeff D is to job reports?
I’m fine with the monthly payroll report, just not the weekly unemployment numbers. Relying on changes there is a fool’s errand for two reasons that Mish has covered in depth: (1) The massive number of Boomer retirements over the next few years, easily drowning out meaningful increases in the weekly unemployment numbers. (2) Every full time job created in the last year has statistically gone to an immigrant, more likely than not, an illegal immigrant. Yet initial claims doesn’t track illegal immigrants. It is a fool’s errand to track initial unemployment claims when essentially every new job is an illegal immigrant, and they don’t even show up in initial claims if they are fired. Initial claims used to be a reliable gauge to measure the unemployment situation a few decades ago. Now it is just a garbage in, garbage out metric that doesn’t reliably indicate anything. You’d be better off examining social security tax collections for a picture of the job market, even though it has known problems as a measure of employment! That’s how worthless the initial claims data has become!
I would discount the spike, but see continuing evidence the bottom for unemployment is in, similar to the July 2007 retest of the January 2006 low.
Maybe that recession they keep pretending isn’t here, is finally here, whether they want it to be or not. If it’s getting harder to find a job, if you lose one, then we are well into the downturn.
With the Government broke, and very far into debt, they no longer have the financial resources to play Politics with the recession data. They have siphoned off all they can from everywhere they can, and given away more money than Our Country actually had (ie. Printed) to give. Now we are left with a financial hangover to go along with our recession, so all exits are now blocked, and pain is on the way.
I suspect the unemployment numbers will simply increase now, as time goes on. I also suspect a massive amount of “Under the Table” work being siphoned off of the taxable work that supposed to exist when things are done right for the economy to work efficiently.
We have 20+ Million people with no S/S #, No desire whatsoever, to be captured within the system, people back home looking for the money to start heading their way, as the cash gets sent back to their home Countries.
Our home Country will simply have to wait for a New Leader, that isn’t looking to Scam Americans for Personal Gain. Let’s hope this goes as smoothly as it looks like, and especially after that absolutely painful display of a “Person Playing President” who can’t even speak coherently, so forget any ability to actually do anything cognitive or meaningful in any manner. He’s just A Big Dolt!!!
– The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 15, is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 27, 2021.
> Now that’s saying something!!!
The establishment is trying to carry Biden across the finish line this November. That means controlling the narrative (and manipulating the economic data) as far as the economy.
“manipulating the economic data” is just the first step. The second step is having the Majority Media (Foolishly called the Mainstream Media by many) repeat the phony data over and over again until people accept as fact.
What is required is a huge push to get more Covid Jabs into arms… I would recommend mandating these for all working age people ‘no jab no job!!!’
Kill off or maim a few million more over the course the rest of the year… creating loads of jobs for these unemployed folks.
I think a real question is if the Fed will assist Biden so they don’t have to deal with Trump. It seems more likely after last night.
I still see a lot of uncertainty ahead and bouncing around zero peivided there are no shocks. The last two shocks were under Republican presidents. Regardless of who wins I believe we will have multiple economic shocks in the next 9 years. The debt picture is foreboding.
Oh that’s all fake https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/what-if/
Unemployment is up. Corp profit are up. AMZN joint the $3T club. The window dressing is over.
I recall a commenter pointing to incumbents losing in November if U3 is moving higher in a specific way/magnitude–he/she had specific numbers. Will watch for that commenter here because data is weakening across the board after 15 years of continuous stimulus, whether monetary or fiscal.
Unemployment is still historically very low, even lower than it looks considering population growth over intervening time frames. Maybe the lowest decile ever. No need to make a market here or talk your book. At some point these numbers will shoot up, but now is not the time. It just reduces credibility to keep bringing it up.
How is one making a market or talking their book, by discussing the the numbers every month? That is the rate at which data is released and compared with previous months or years. The FED looks at data every month, to look for indications of economic strength or weakness.
I couldn’t agree with you more. Until unemployment actually starts shooting up, covering the monthly payroll report with value added insights that Mish always provides makes perfect sense, and adds credibility. That said, this is just a weekly unemployment report, that looks much like the last 52 weekly unemployment reports, statistically speaking. More specifically — moving sideways at historically low levels relative to population size.
It’s not historically low. Its effectively at the same level immediately preceding the 1970 recession. As mish stated, the delta matters here, level doesn’t.
You actually made the argument that level *does* matter with your reference, because unemployment tends to be noticibly lower right before recession. The problem with the current economic situation, is that it’s anything but “normal”. The unprecedented currency created beginning in 2020, the regulation changes, the profligate spending by government into inflation rather than countercyclical spending, the fact that money supply is still well above historical growth trendline (and will be for years to come no matter what), etc. What you end up with is years of calling for an imminent meaningful increase in unemployment, without it ever materializing. It leads to a classic “boy who cried wolf” setup, where the boy in that story is too naive to know what to look for. Look, I agree something has to break, but in this monetary environment, you can never know when, based on a turbulent mix of indicators, many of which are based on faulty data and expectations. We are all the boy in the classic story at this point due to chaotic external circumstances, but most of us realize we’re that kid right now, and are keeping our mouth shut.
What this does to Biden:
https://i.pinimg.com/474x/cd/f8/a2/cdf8a212c20f235f3b4a283664ce0595.jpg