The ping-pong match in alternating continued claims is over. 
I do not have a satisfactory explanation for 24 straight weeks of alternating up-down changes in continued claims. It’s unprecedented. I suppose it could be a random fluke albeit with an amazingly small likelihood.
For whatever reason or none at all, the pattern broke two weeks ago, followed by the smallest improvement in the weeks that did improve, then another big blast higher.
On Thursday, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending June 7, 2025.
Initial Unemployment Claims
Initial Unemployment Claims Details
- In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level.
- The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
- This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 235,000 to 235,250.
Continued Unemployment Claims
The breakout in continued claims makes for an ominous chart.
Continued Unemployment Claims Details
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 31 was 1,956,000, an increase of 54,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000.
- The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,904,000 to 1,902,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 1,914,500, an increase of 19,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
- This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,923,500. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 1,895,250 to 1,894,750.
For months we kept butting up against this Department of Labor Statement: This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000.
The ping-pong match has capped continued claims at that level. If the data alternates positive again next week, we might see the sentence again in two weeks. But this cap won’t hold.
DOGE and Federal Claims
- Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 561 in the week ending May 31, an increase of 23 from the prior week.
- There were 328 initial claims filed by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 33 from the preceding week.
- There were 6,315 continued weeks claimed filed by former Federal civilian employees the week ending May 24, a decrease of 404 from the previous week.
- Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 4,238, a decrease of 248 from the prior week.
The BLS shows a decline in Federal Employment since January of 59,000. But most of those laid off by DOGE actions are being paid through September, ineligible for claims.
About 75,000 accepted the paid deal in February, but some employees who accepted the offer were later told that their jobs were “mission critical” and were asked to reconsider.
I am unaware of official counts with more precise data. But it’s now June. A scramble for jobs may soon be underway by those who accepted the offer.
Final Thoughts
Tariffs and tariff uncertainty have now started to bite. Small businesses will be the ones most impacted.
Trump won an extended stay on reciprocal tariffs through July 31. And in early, July Trump said he will announce deals.
Also, Trump has recently increased tariffs on steel and aluminum. All of these actions and events are guaranteed job killers.
Expect a surge in unemployment claims.
However, BLS data and methods are so poor, it’s hard to say when this turns up in the jobs reports.
Related Posts
March 13, 2025: The Amazing “Success” of Trump’s 2018 Aluminum Tariffs in One Picture
I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.
May 31, 2025: Trump Will Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent
Higher prices is the last thing US automakers need or small businesses need.
The US does not even make some of the steel small businesses need. If that is still the case after the Nippon deal, Trump will drive those small businesses out of business.
With the extended stay, Trump now has enough rope to hang the economy. I will cover the implications of the extended stay in a separate post.
So I work for a nuclear utility and our work force is at that point of massive retirements. So these folks aren’t unemployed and we need to hire to replace.. which isn’t easy. Is the retirement boom in higher tech being overwhelmed by “unable to retire” in lower skill areas? Thoughts?
Can you trust ANYTHING from the Trump administration? My guess is every administration juked their stats, but no recent POTUS has been as bold and unrestrained as Trump, the king.
It’s time for all patriots to step up, Trump must be removed before this country explodes.
The upward trend will continue, not because of tariffs but because of AI.
We don’t have the electricity!!! We are way behind China. AI will take some jobs but how long can companies absorb cost from these tariffs!
There is a 1 in 2^23 (8.3 million) chance of ping-ponging lasting that long. It’s not natural.
It can be natural if there’s a procedural issue… maybe a certain state(s) employment reporting manager takes every other Friday off, so in those weeks they fail to file their data on time and have to “catch up” the next week.
We know that sort of issue impacts initial claims, where the state level data is publicly reported, so it’s not far fetched for continuing claims.
“I do not have a satisfactory explanation for 24 straight weeks of alternating up-down changes in continued claims. It’s unprecedented.”
I think a large part of it is the growing retirement of boomers. I monitor the SS snapshot monthly and there was a huge spike in April, way larger than most. Once those people retire, someone needs to replace them in some capacity, often it may be two people.
Tools such as AI help with improved productivity on the high end but things like Trump’s deportations counteract some of the efficiencies on the low end.
Some sectors, like construction, getting hit harder than others.
https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/labor-shortages-and-immigration-crackdowns-take-toll-on-construction-industry/
Demographics is a large part of the issue in my opinion. We are in uncharted territory here because no one has ever had 74 million people collecting free money and benefits to spend and use while the remaining folks pick up the slack.
I’m seeing the glass half full. Boomers with multiple homes could retire to one, and let their children use the other(s) rent free. Such an arrangement would free up youth budgets and create rental vacancies. The government would then raise Social security taxes, indirectly pulling from personal budget surpluses.
Houses are one thing the labor mismatch is another. There won’t be enough doctors, nurses, mechanics, plumbers, electricians, you name it.
Labor will be the defining issue of the next decade, even worse now with ICE gone wild.
But Trump is coming around. Lol.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NDFCgFPojtI
Construction job losses doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in terms of boomers retiring as an explanation. I mean how many 60 plus year olds are still working in construction other than as an owner or a very high level foreman. It’s a young mans game.
Do you know if retirements are counted as part of the unemployment count? I would not think they would be since retiring people should not be eligible for unemployment benefits.
The surge in disabilities starting immediately after the mRNA jab roll-out continues upward at the steep rate that started Spring 2021:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597
Ed Dowd has been keeping track of estimated economic cost of the injuries and deaths. Not aware of his current estimate.
We have been in uncharted territory for a long time, when it comes down to it. The Great Depression was uncharted, as was WW2, resulting in an uncharted post war economic and baby boom. The U.S. became the uncharted only superpower. We now have an uncharted retirement surge and uncharted national debt growth and uncharted global debt bubble, with an uncharted reset looming.