About a month ago Trump announced there were 15 US cases headed to zero. On March 4 Trump proclaimed “we are talking about very small numbers in the US”.
On March 17, Trump told this amazing bald-faced lie: “This is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”
Number of Cases Jumped Over 5,000 Today
The number of cases in the US has jumped by over 5,000 today to nearly 25% and there are still many hours left in the day.
Stata are from Worldometers.
US Coronavirus Cases
That is a “what if” not a prediction. Moreover we expected a leap due to increased testing.
US Coronavirus Deaths
23 % of US Ordered to Stay at Home
- 23% of the US Population is ordered to “stay at home” after governors in California (40 million residents), New York State (20 million), Illinois (13 million), and Connecticut (3.5 million) ordered nonessential workers to remain at home to slow the spread of coronavirus.
- Connecticut issues a “stay at home” order for its 3.5 million residents that goes into effect Monday at 8 p.m
- Texas declared a public health disaster for the first time in more than 100 years.
- Illinois: Governor Pritzker issues an immediate “stay at home” order for all residents “to avoid the loss of potentially tens of thousands of lives” The order goes into effect at 5 p.m. Saturday.
- New York: Governor Cuomo orders 100% of all non-essential workers to stay home.
- Pennsylvania: Governor Wolf orders all businesses that aren’t ‘life-sustaining’ to close.
- California: Governor Gavin Newson orders the state’s 40 million residents to “stay at home.” The order is “open ended.” Modeling predicts that 56% of the state’s population will be infected over the next 8 weeks. Only essential businesses will be allowed to remain open. All indoor public and private gatherings with 10 or more people are prohibited.
Stay Home Orders
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1241473106604163073
Testing
New York now has over 10,000 cases and is doing more tests than any other state in the United States, according to Governor Cuomo, who said 45,000 tests have been performed in New York State, compared to 23,000 in California (which has twice the population).
Faster Test Results
Converting Gyms to Beds
Italy vs New York
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1241484387184775169
US vs World
- Speed of Coronavirus Pandemic in US is now the fastest in the world.
- We’ve surpassed China on 16th days after 100th case, & still only 25% of country on lockdown.
- In a week we’ll have more COVIDー19 cases than in China, likely >100k
New York Temporarily Halts Airline Departures
If You Need to Be Somewhere, Get There Before You Can’t
I commented on the above prospect on March 16: If You Need to Be Somewhere, Get There Before You Can’t
Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline
Note that Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression
This is getting worse by the day,
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
What if we put it this way: 0.076% of the USA has COVID-19 (generously assuming 250k infections in a pop of 327 million). Is that really worth shutting EVERYTHING down for?
Or would a more rational, measured response be to isolate those who are elderly (and make up the vast majority of deaths), thus allowing a group immunity to form amongst those who are the 80%? I hear this being discussed by doctors but not politicians for some reason.
Politicians and bloggers are going to have to play heavy CYA when everyone realizes that COVID-19 deaths were only a small percentage of average flu deaths in the USA.
The one positive thing about all this panic though is that it looks very helpful in getting rid of Trump as president. It’s too bad that the replacement is going to be Biden though.
I sense a Chernobyl spin underway in the Russian nums.
“What exactly is alarming? New incidences don’t lead to more deaths.”
Beyond idiotic statement by JoJo
I meant on a one-to-one basis, which is what so many seem to believe.
Perspective, even at the “what if” 100,000 cases in ten days scenario, that’s about 300 cases per million people.
Using China’s data ( I know it’s questionable) but it’s about 50 – 60 days further into this epidemic than the US, they have a recovered rate of about 88%
That leaves 264 of the 300 cases per million recovering.
You can’t use China’s data (as questionable as they are). They implemented a severe lockdown and built two hospitals pronto. Our hospitals are already starting to get overwhelmed (just look at NYC and LA). Also “recover” misses a bunch of details like place and manner of recovery, etc. The Chinese managed to flatten the curve somewhat i.e. they ensured hospitals were able to handle as many people as possible. Our numbers will look worse, guaranteed.
Interesting up here in Canada, we’ve got 1400 cases and a population of 37 million, which gives us an infection rate of 37.88 — which is lower than the US. A little concerned with Europe where the infection rate is around 200/million.
Canada suggested that the border be shut for everything but essential travel (like food transport) and Trump’s Xenophobic tendencies just paved the way for him to announce the shutdown. giving him kudos with the nationalist fringe — and make all Canadians breath a little easier (no pun intended)
Stay safe, stay at least 2 meters away and have a nice day!
From the South China Morning Post: “Coronavirus: ‘strange pneumonia’ seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor says “
Big if true. Predates Wuhan.
is this true?? It’s Barack Obama’s Fault There’s a Shortage of N95 Respirator Masks
Uggg! Thanks Obama!
Barack Obama created corona virus in his secret bio lab to kill off trumps foxnewsgrandpa voter base!
If this is true, it’s Obama’s fault for not replenishing it, but since the Orange Man didn’t do anything either, he’s also complicit. He had 3 years to do something, but he didn’t. It’s obvious both men didn’t believe these kinds of things could happen.
I’ve just noticed that the John’s Hopkins site has not updated numbers since I looked last night at around 11:00 PM Central Time. The numbers and trends from the last week were certainly alarming. I just hope that these numbers are not getting suppressed or manipulated by the government.
There should be some updates now, but at the same time, Los Angeles has given up on testing. Because of lack of test kits, they are now going back to the same old strategy of testing only people that will be admitted to the hospital.
America’s numbers will now look better because of …. lack of testing. Same old crap. This country is done.
What exactly is alarming? New incidences don’t lead to more deaths. Perhaps you are talking about overloaded hospital beds? But most people who get the virus do not require hospitalization. So again, what trend are you referring to that is “alarming”?
Is your brain broke?
Jojo, what I was referring to as “alarming” was the fact that on the morning of March 19th, there were 9,415 reported cases as per the Johns Hopkins website. Currently, they are reporting 32,717, 3 and a half days later. On the same dates, they reported 150 deaths, and are now reporting 409 deaths. So, even if it is only 5 percent of total cases that need hospitalization, that is over 1600 people hospitalized currently. If things are doubling every 3 o 4 day, yes, I think those numbers are alarming.
They aren’t alarming. As we do more testing, more cases will be discovered. in every year since 2010, 6k-61k people die from the flu. We are FAR AWAY from the flu deaths and it doesn’t look like we are going to come near them. The panic is unnecessary.
Kansas City and some surrounding counties,also st joseph mo, have just issued stay at home. typical orders you can still shop and work essential jobs.
Everyone stay in their coffins!
No, we’ll have to cremate you there wont be room for your coffin.
I’m going to use this “Stay at Home” time to lose a few pounds on the spin bike, read up on skills for my next project, and do a few projects around the house that have been neglected due to long office hours.
But arent you expected to be productive for work at home ?
GET SOME EDUCATION SUCKERS
Very interesting article based on datas which SHOULD NOT BE COMPARED TOGETHER
The coronavirus is originally a COLD virus not a flu virus. COLD infectivity curves must be compared with Covid infectivity curves.
To compare curves of countries where it is summer all year with ours colds humid winter countries is also not correct.
The figures from ASIA should be taken with precaution. Over here and in US everybody claim that protectives masks are not necessary to go outside and in the family home. The real reason is that we are good at producing financial bubbles but good for nothing else as there is for two months a scandalous penury of this product.
So dont compare countries (ASIAN) locked down while making mask use obligatory to our countries where containment is very soft.
It is too early to draw a lot of conclusions about severity rates and death rates as no one country has tested their whole population so far.
The only reliable datas we are able to apply on our Western countries giving us a realistic idea of what could happen to us is ITALY. One thing is for SURE without containment people are going to dye everywhere (besides the hospitals) and in far greater numbers than if correctly serviced in hospitals.
Please use masks everywhere even makeshifts one when you encounter other peoples.
You English good for US American!.
Italy is a very small country relative to the USA with a significantly higher number of older people and a still high number of smokers. So no, they are not a good model to compare against the USA.
As to the rest, you can nitpick anything. Can you provide an alternative, similarly comprehensive analysis as to why, say Italy IS a good model? I won’t hold my breath.
2020: the year everyone and their dog became an epidemiologist
Looks like HCQ is working . NYC docs are prescribing it and getting great results even in the worst patience . Teva the Isreal company sending a million doses over immediately and ramping production and sending much more over . Trump mentioned it several days back but it has been on the internet for several weeks .
Stanford guy was talking on this and it worked on 40 out of 40 patients in a test.
FDA has not approved but docs issuing anyway . Hopefully this works and the crowd on Mish board can get back to Russia even though they are getting ready to drop all charges against two companies and the Russians that Mueller charged . Who would have believed they would actually show up in court ? Trump called it a hoax and it was . Yet the fake news talked about it for a year. They aren’t mentioning it now though
GARLIC : looks like an alternative to others ZN ionophores fault of having them available.
Garlic contain sulfur based proteins (thiols group) which have the property to link and transport metals (chelation). Thiols group should probably trigger a displacement of ZN ions toward the inner cell (ionophore). Although the ZN ionophore property of Garlic thiols has not been (scientificaly) investigated unlike for QUERCETIN (oignons contain it) which at 3 to 7 grams per day is as good as chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine.
Garlic has been proved IN VITRO to impede some virus replication. He has also been proved to kill a lot of BACTERIAS. Scientifics did not explain the biomolecular causes of these effects as most researchs date back a lot. Garlic is so cheap and cant be patented so that nobody decided to invest in scientificaly led in vivo clinical trials.
The datas from South Korea are encouragingly weird because of so few severe cases and death. In that country their national food is KIM SHI containing raw fermented garlic in very high quantities.
If you cant find chloroquine or quercetin somewhere in case you have a respiratory viral infection looming then take your chance with Garlic which except the social distancing it automatically trigger, has no harmfull side effects (3 raw crushed cloves morning and evening with some olive oil) .
ZINC supplements are only a must if like 25 per cent of the general population you are ZINC deficient.
It also keeps vampires away which may be useful in our post apocalyptic world.
Early in January I saw a report about a Chinese doctor recommendation to boil 6 garlic, then eat the garlic and drink the water (after it has cooled).
I will sometimes eat raw garlic, but I’m not sure most people would- maybe put it on bread with olive oil.
Pretty sure Italians get plenty of garlic in their diet and they’re fucked right now. Fake news!
Just 5 minutes ago got in from garden replanting some volunteer garlic remaining from last year. So many different kinds, some so mild like above you can chew them up, others so strong they burn everywhere like an habenero pepper. Mai oui, the stronger the better. Nothing wrong IMHO with chopping it up in some hummus or miracle whip or eggs and bacon. They say, and I think, for the health benefits you should always eat it raw in one way or another.
I had an oral infection that didn’t resolve with antibiotics, so I started using raw garlic. It did help the infection but I did it too long (about 2 weeks) and had an anaphylactic reaction. Careful about how much and how long you use garlic
Get some education, suckers!
Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19
Aaron Ginn
Mar 20, 2020
Should we be getting educated by Tyler Durden, econ blogger, or by Aaron Ginn, silicon valley tech bro?
Aaron Ginn. If you have something useful to offer other than your snarky comments (so funny), we await your posting.
I guess you are fine taking epidemiological analysis and advice … from a programmer. The funny’s on you.
Here’s a Medium article actually written by a real epidemiologist and Johns Hopkins senior scholar, in favor of shortened “lockdowns”:
Report: Trump’s Justice Department Wants To Suspend Habeas Corpus.https://hillreporter.com/report-trumps-justice-department-wants-to-suspend-habeas-corpus-62080
Not surprising. How many Trump fans remember his statements after the Parkland shooting two years ago?
I wonder if 1% of the population even knows what habeas corpus is… or maybe I should say was.
Abraham Lincoln suspended it during the civil war. I think 1% know what it is, I just don’t see why it’s needed now unless Federal Courts are being closed.
I have pondered this for a week since this lock down thing. Federal judges can do arraignments via video with jails. Local courts do it all the time and have been for at least a dozen years. This is more alarming to me than the virus.
Most people try to do the right thing, including people working in Federal Courts. There isn’t a conspiracy to strip rights, or if there is most people working in Federal Courthouses aren’t aware of it. Most people are just trying to do the best they can as circumstances permit.
I am listening to a live youtube video of Jake Morphonios who used to work as a forensic accountant. Tomorrow it will be posted… it’s close to the end now. This story actually got started as an alert to a reporter by a staffer in DC. If you start about an hour into the video, that’s about where the info starts… It will give you at least a clue of where you want to listen. Name of the video is: “LIVE – What Covid 19 Infection Models Are Predicting – Deep State Capitalizing on Crisis”
This is a bad move if true. Trump has surrounded himself with idiots. Trump is an idiot! But then, so was Obama, Bush, Clinton, …
Maybe it will curb people doing stupid stuff in time of crisis. Go out and steal someone groceries then get bailed then sit at home weeks waiting for trial? No, you go to jail now.
Kudlow says a 2+ trillion stimulus package is in the works. Ok, so you add that to the projected 1.2 trillion deficit and you’re looking at 3+ trillion annual budget deficit? Good luck with that.
It’s ok, we only owe it to ourselves.
Most of the public will swallow it. Even here on Mish’s blog those of us who criticize bailouts are being called heartless.
Think of the children! If we don’t saddle them with many more trillions of dollars of debt, they’ll never grow up! You don’t want American kids to die, do you?
Wait until they have to raise taxes on everyone to cover the deficits created! Money doesn’t grow on trees.
So sad to tell you–most azithromycin manufactured in India, Spain and China. And, apparently there are a lot of people searching for hydroxychloroquine right now.
Check out https://www.pharmacompass.com/
Its a craigslist of pharmaceuticals.
And you don’t need a doctors prescription to buy pharmaceuticals overseas.
Thanx. Never knew this site existed. I used to be able to get anything I need but now that the supply is being destroyed/restricted/confiscated, this site could come in handy. I already have a supply of hydroxychloroquine on hand, but it’s a 3 month supply and I am going to time this thing at a local level and hang till I think I will actually need it. This virus is going to be with us for years the way it looks now.
Looked at the stats in Michigan today… Cases are doubling every 2 1/2 days. If you look at the graphs, you can see where they started testing. Now we are at 807 cases state wide. Problem with all the stats is they are misleading to most. Now the fed has changed the way they determine cases because they will never be able to obtain the test kits they need. It is now getting near impossible to diagnose since they just expanded the symptoms list to include other symptoms that overlap into abdominal viruses. How many cases will be something other than COVID 19?
It turns out that in about 60% of cases, the first symptom of COVI19 is diarrhea. In the remaining cases is it usually upper respiratory. The goal is to diagnose cases earlier, rather than waiting for the cough/fever/commencement of pneumonia stage.
“When it gets serious, you have to lie,” Jean Claude Juncker, during the ECU debt crisis.
An unspoken corollary: If it persists, and your early lies have been revealed, you now have to be scrupulously honest. I think we’re finally there, especially in China.
I think what’s ahead for us is the China experience, adjusted upwards by the “Idiot college kids in the bars and on the beaches” factor.
We’ve built in several hundred thousand more infected, but maybe not so many dead…assuming we can be scrupulously honest and admit we should focus on testing and early, aggressive treatment of positives with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin.
The evidence for those drugs is so threadbare that it’s sad to see it hyped by hopeful people. Don’t you think Italy reads the internet?
Greastest economy ever my ass,deadest most chit economy ever definetly,Trump is a complete fraud,teflon Don.
lol,
If you get Netflix, watch the documentary series “Dirty Money” and look for the episode titled “The Confidence Man.” All about Trump:
“In an episode called “The Confidence Man,” Dirty Money traces the origins of the president’s wealth, his lean years in the 1990s, and his more dubious business entanglements in Azerbaijan in the lead-up to his run for office.”
Pretty good episode showing another side of Trump we rarely see.
Trump needs to declare a national lockdown NOW. Screw letting the states with weak knees worrying about their precious pensions and tax receipts! Everyday they drag their heels is another day of exponential more cases as a possibility this is stupid. I also think many of the so called essential business really aren’t essential and need to be shuttered. It’s only a matter of time, these states are acting like toddlers that did something bad and are doing everything possible to try and hide the fact. Get with the program people!
Yes screw the constitution, freedom and rights! This could kill .01 percent of us!
If they can suspend the constitution with the stroke of a pen then what is the constitution? It’s nothing more than some freedoms that you are given until time comes they want to take them away. It means nothing.
25000/1000 = 25X, not 5X. Therefore, at this rate of exponential increase, in 10 more days, the number will 25 x 25,000 = 625,000.
I just posted a video I was sent. Shot outside of Chicago. MANY military vehicles eastbound: https://youtu.be/uxNQ8erWIW4
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Streaming has become difficult today. Heard the internet is crashing around the country.
My buddy works for a regional telecom… workers there have been provided with paperwork from Homeland Security identifying them as critical workers and stating they have the right to travel. That means the feds are planning for the possibility of enforced lockdown.
My state (CT) has a stay at home order and closed non-essential businesses, yet the list of how many businesses are essential is so long that I don’t see how it can work to stop the virus.
Absolute nonsense, those vehicles are brand new JLTV’s manufactured in Oshkosh Wisconsin. And if you look at a freaking map anything shipping south or east is going through Chicago via rail. Oshkosh is contracted to supply nearly 17k of them. Think there might be a few big train loads of them heading to a place like Fort Benning where they are in the process of replacing the Humvee. The idiot in the video who is claiming someone is getting locked down isn’t too dissimilar to a lot of the nonsensical postings on this blog.
Decimating the entire economy by having an open-ended situation is just not an option IMO. They need to pick a firm number of days (no more than 16, I would say) and begin a National countdown. The number would appear on every TV station, so we ALL know we are on day “X”. Then on day 17, EVERYONE goes back to normal life by Presidential decree. We use the stand-down time to prepare as well as possible. We turn Auditoriums into wards. We make YouTube videos deputizing people on how to take care of their family member victims, until they really, really need to be in the ICU. We deputize soldiers. That’s about all we can do IMO. Oh, and we should force ALL lenders of ALL types to forgive a month or two of payments (across-the-board) and add it onto the end of ALL the contracts. Haphazard forgiveness and difficult-to-prove “local” moratoriums will result in legal, financial and moral nightmares for everyone and will ruin a lot of professional relationships, mainly landlord/tenant relationships. “Well Ralph in 204 was able to pay on time…”
Great idea… if the virus decides to respect the countdown.
No, it obviously won’t. But uncertainty in the economy is going to devastate so many people’s entire livelihoods.
I agree with the governor of illinois you aren’t going to have a livelihood if you’re dead. Also, I think we need a debt wipeout we’re circulating the drain anyway. Complete bailouts for the crooks and you propose a month or two extension screw that crap.
Also, if this crap get as bad as could it wont matter if you say get back to normal in 17 days who the hell is going to do that in the middle of complete death and destruction. Good try but not a good idea.
Rather than everyone. Why not just do a rolling 10% as a start. 10% of every company’s workforce would come in every day. In two weeks, 100% of all employees would have visited their own company once. After that 20%, etc, etc.
If things are well, we continue, otherwise we roll back. Bringing in everyone at once is another recipe for disaster. Also in terms of going out, this smells like a scheduling problem more than anything else. If you can schedule a visit to a store in advance, and ensure that no more than X people are inside the store, I don’t see why this is a problem. We already do this with the grocery stores. Heck many luxury stores do business like this.
But of course we know what the problem is. Freedom. Or rather “this is America, and I am going to do what I want whenever I want” BS.
Yes. They should set some date, have some plan. … Or, tell people they can’t work or doing anything and in a few months our “leaders” are going to start having accidents.
Sounds reasonable enough. How about starting with 550? That’s a reasonable time frame for developing a vaccine, and once there is a vaccine, the restrictions can end.
Cut production in half for 550 days? That would kill more people than the virus. Maybe just in suicides.
How the lockdown in Wuhan worked?
Friends and families were coordinating shopping. The designated shopper of the day, collected the shopping lists, then dropped off the merchandise at the door.
The lockdown was obviously mostly in pigeon hole apartments, not McMansions.
But it worked.
If you think, you have it bad.
I’m hearing info that says that since they lifted the quarantine, cases are re surging.
I don’t see how that couldn’t be the truth. It’s not going to go away until either most of us get it, or there’s a vaccine.
Here’s a positive of the shutdowns – cleaner air & water.
The Emissions Impact of Coronavirus Lockdowns, As Shown by Satellites
March 21, 2020
3K Americans die each month in motor vehicle accidents. One “benefit” of house arrest might be dropping that number by hundreds in April.
While at the same time freeing up emergency rooms from having to deal with auto accidents, skiing accidents, barfight accidents etc.
We need a big jump in deaths! Otherwise the medical industrial complex and the politicians are going to show as having grossly overreacted.
Well when the deaths come the usual morons can say “see we shouldn’t have bothered, they’re dead but so’s the economy.” There’s not way to win with morons, so you speak to the adults in the room. Someday maybe Republicans will learn that too.
You first and then I’ll follow you. Trust me.
Much of what Trump said was his ham-handed attempt at calming people. It’s just Trump’s style (or lack there of). Be angry at Trump if you must, but to what purpose? TDS? The situation is what it is. Also Trump may have access to more information about things than your average person,so, he probably did know its was a pandemic sooner.
How about a nice round of applause for President Trump and his banning flights from China when he did. That clearly was a helpful move. He probably should have did the same for flights from other places soon after. But the same critics were calling him a racist for a common sense move.
You can piss and moan about the rest. But, I suspect the latency in the response is more a reflection of the bureaucracy than its figurehead.
Rubbish. Certain presidents like Roosevelt would have united the nation through both words and actions. Just look at Trump’s reply to that NBC correspondent. It’s obvious the man’s coming apart. No wonder the stock market’s crashing like crazy. Because our president can’t even handle his own fear.
There’s many ways in which he could have handled that situation better. He could have made an offhand joke. He could have said things like he believed in the strength of the American people and that he’s humbled by the bravery of our front line health workers. And let’s face it, those people ARE BRAVE. They go forth everyday with lack of PPE. For what? Certainly not to become extremely rich.
Nah, the coronavirus called his bluff, and he knows it. Heck everyone knows it.
FDR was the worse President of all time! He doubled down on Hoover’s interventions into the economy and made the depression Great. Then he worked hard to start a World War that killed over 60 Million people and turned half of Europe over to his bud, Uncle Joe. If you think that is good leader, I’m glad we have a bad one.
The early China flight ban, was definitely precocious in hindsight. They probably can’t bring themselves to admit it, but I suspect even the Chinese deep down agree with that.
Hitting one home run, and then simply going home to brag, is no way to win a game, though…
I hope flight bans become standard practice in future outbreaks. If you’re wrong it’s a little disruption in international travel, if you’re right at a minimum you buy extra time to prepare even if you can’t avoid the virus.
“Things are going to be getting very real this year, even as some continue to deny reality, to an almost astonishing degree of self-absorption and denial.” –Jesse
I am a snowflake, and I want to skip to the end of this nightmare.
‘Shelter in place’ is a euphemism for house arrest. This is about politicians wanting to control the ignorant people they represent. The people can’t be trusted to do what is best, so the politician will force them to ‘do the right thing’. After all, who knows best what John and Jane Doe needs—the Does in their tiny apartment or the Governor in his mansion?
You are dangerously delusional
An interesting, thoroughly typical comment from a far left Californian wanna-be psychiatrist. I note that:
When the governor of your State deigns to allow you to leave your trailer, raise your head up and look around at what your once beautiful state has become. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.
Here’s a simple refutation: in my state we were urged to stay home if possible, yet few did. Now we are ordered to, because people didn’t listen and take wise action.
What does a politician have to gain from unnecessarily putting people under “house arrest”? Sounds like a career ender to me. Unfortunately, a shelter in place order is needed because a certain ignorant, though small, part of the population refuses to come to grips with dangers facing them in a pandemic where cases can explode exponentially. As a result, those same people then put themselves and others in danger. I really don’t care if they put themselves in danger, but I am concerned about the others they put in danger. I’ve never equated liberty with pathologically selfish behavior that requires me to disregard the impact of my actions on my fellow citizens.
It’s a difficult trade off. If no one was obliged to share public or private space it would seem over reaction to order people home. People have to share those spaces in normal times though, from taking a walk to go shopping, through to work or school. If there is no shut down, then people would be obliged to go to work, would have to mix under normal circumstances in their day to day, few would have the option to self isolate . So in a sense this is also an “economic virus” because it runs into the working of the economy, and via that it infringes on our liberty – because a justification of wider restrictions is all that is available to be used to interfere with that framework in a way that exempts people from it. If no one HAD TO mix in public, I doubt that there would be house arrest, just restrictions on behaviour in public… and many would just stay home till they were reassured that going about was safe. As was, unless you turned up to work you were fired, and so people would continue to in spite of there being pandemic, even were it as dangerous as it is made out. Bear in mind also that public care services are going to be picking up the burden of mass infection.
So I’m undecided in my view wrt , as I frankly do not know exactly what this virus is capable of. Unfortunately there is no easy definition of where it becomes essential to restrict activity, nor is there an easy definition of where any restrictions should be relaxed. You can imagine a “controlled return” to “normality” where much is overseen due to possibility of new outbreak, lasting months or years even. It is a very miserable thought.
It isn’t a topic with easy answers.
People that have been sheltered in place all along, nursing homes, are dropping the fastest. Maybe a nice long camping trip out in the wild would really do the trick.
The democrats are taking this impeachment virus hoax waaaaaaayyyyyy too far, and Dear Leader will deal with them shortly.